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Managing Ethiopia's Transition
Managing Ethiopia’s Unsettled Transition $IULFD5HSRUW1 _ )HEUXDU\ +HDGTXDUWHUV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO&ULVLV*URXS $YHQXH/RXLVH %UXVVHOV%HOJLXP 7HO )D[ EUXVVHOV#FULVLVJURXSRUJ Preventing War. Shaping Peace. Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... i I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 II. Anatomy of a Crisis ........................................................................................................... 2 A. Popular Protests and Communal Clashes ................................................................. 3 B. The EPRDF’s Internal Fissures ................................................................................. 6 C. Economic Change and Social Malaise ....................................................................... 8 III. Abiy Ahmed Takes the Reins ............................................................................................ 12 A. A Wider Political Crisis .............................................................................................. 12 B. Abiy’s High-octane Ten Months ................................................................................ 15 IV. Internal Challenges and Opportunities ............................................................................ 21 A. Calming Ethnic and Communal Conflict .................................................................. -
“The Unfolding Conflict in Ethiopia”
Statement of Lauren Ploch Blanchard Specialist in African Affairs Before Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations U.S. House of Representatives Hearing on “The Unfolding Conflict in Ethiopia” December 1, 2020 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov <Product Code> {222A0E69-13A2-4985-84AE-73CC3D FF4D02}-TE-163211152070077203169089227252079232131106092075203014057180128125130023132178096062140209042078010043236175242252234126132238088199167089206156154091004255045168017025130111087031169232241118025191062061197025113093033136012248212053148017155066174148175065161014027044011224140053166050 Congressional Research Service 1 Overview The outbreak of hostilities in Ethiopia’s Tigray region in November reflects a power struggle between the federal government of self-styled reformist Prime Minister Abiy (AH-bee) Ahmed and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a former rebel movement that dominated Ethiopian politics for more than a quarter century before Abiy’s ascent to power in 2018.1 The conflict also highlights ethnic tensions in the country that have worsened in recent years amid political and economic reforms. The evolving conflict has already sparked atrocities, spurred refugee flows, and strained relations among countries in the region. The reported role of neighboring Eritrea in the hostilities heightens the risk of a wider conflict. After being hailed for his reforms and efforts to pursue peace at home and in the region, Abiy has faced growing criticism from some observers who express concern about democratic backsliding. By some accounts, the conflict in Tigray could undermine his standing and legacy.2 Some of Abiy’s early supporters have since become critics, accusing him of seeking to consolidate power, and some observers suggest his government has become increasingly intolerant of dissent and heavy-handed in its responses to law and order challenges.3 Abiy and his backers argue their actions are necessary to preserve order and avert further conflict. -
Ethiopia COI Compilation
BEREICH | EVENTL. ABTEILUNG | WWW.ROTESKREUZ.AT ACCORD - Austrian Centre for Country of Origin & Asylum Research and Documentation Ethiopia: COI Compilation November 2019 This report serves the specific purpose of collating legally relevant information on conditions in countries of origin pertinent to the assessment of claims for asylum. It is not intended to be a general report on human rights conditions. The report is prepared within a specified time frame on the basis of publicly available documents as well as information provided by experts. All sources are cited and fully referenced. This report is not, and does not purport to be, either exhaustive with regard to conditions in the country surveyed, or conclusive as to the merits of any particular claim to refugee status or asylum. Every effort has been made to compile information from reliable sources; users should refer to the full text of documents cited and assess the credibility, relevance and timeliness of source material with reference to the specific research concerns arising from individual applications. © Austrian Red Cross/ACCORD An electronic version of this report is available on www.ecoi.net. Austrian Red Cross/ACCORD Wiedner Hauptstraße 32 A- 1040 Vienna, Austria Phone: +43 1 58 900 – 582 E-Mail: [email protected] Web: http://www.redcross.at/accord This report was commissioned by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Division of International Protection. UNHCR is not responsible for, nor does it endorse, its content. TABLE OF CONTENTS List of abbreviations ........................................................................................................................ 4 1 Background information ......................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Geographical information .................................................................................................... 6 1.1.1 Map of Ethiopia ........................................................................................................... -
Leaders for a New Africa
LEADERS FOR A NEW AFRICA LEADERS A NEW FOR Giovanni Carbone Political leadership can be a crucial ingredient for the is Head of the ISPI Africa development of sub-Saharan Africa. The region has LEADERS FOR Programme and Professor been going through important transformations, with both of Political Science at the political landscapes and economic trajectories becoming Founded in 1934, ISPI is Università degli Studi di Milano. an independent think tank increasingly diverse. The changes underway include the A NEW AFRICA committed to the study of role of leadership and its broader impact. This volume Democrats, Autocrats, and Development international political and argues that, on the whole, African leaders and the way economic dynamics. they reach power generally do contribute to shaping edited by Giovanni Carbone It is the only Italian Institute their countries’ progresses and achievements. It also – and one of the very few in zooms in on some influential African leaders who recently introduction by Paolo Magri Europe – to combine research emerged in key states across the continent, illustrating and activities with a significant explaining the individual paths that brought them to power commitment to training, events, while reflecting on the prospects for their governments’ and global risk analysis for actions. Far from the simplistic stereotypes of immovable, companies and institutions. ineffective and greedy rulers, the resulting picture reveals ISPI favours an interdisciplinary and policy-oriented approach dynamic and rapidly evolving political scenarios with key made possible by a research implications for development in the region. team of over 50 analysts and an international network of 70 universities, think tanks, and research centres. -
OAE7-112018.Pdf
Observatoire friqu de l’ st AEnjeux politiques & Esécuritaires L’Éthiopie d’Abiy Ahmed Ali : une décompression autoritaire Jeanne Aisserge chercheure indépendante & Jean-Nicolas Bach directeur du CEDEJ Khartoum (MEAE-CNRS, USR 3123) Note analyse 7 Novembre 2018 L’Observatoire de l’Afrique de l’Est (2017- 2010) est un programme de recherche coordonné par le Centre d’Etude et de Docu- mentation Economique, Juridique et Sociale de Khartoum (MAEDI-CNRS USR 3123) et le Centre de Recherches Internationales de Sciences Po Paris. Il se situe dans la continuité de l’Observa- toire de la Corne de l’Afrique qu’il remplace et dont il élargit le champ d’étude. L’Observatoire de l’Afrique de l’Est a vocation à réaliser et à diffuser largement des Notes d’analyse relatives aux questions politiques et sécuritaires contempo- raines dans la région en leur offrant d’une part une perspective histo- rique et d’autre part des fondements empiriques parfois négligées ou souvent difficilement accessibles. L’Observatoire est soutenu par la Direction Générale des Relations Internationales et de la Stratégie (ministère de la Défense français). Néanmoins, les propos énoncés dans les études et Observatoires commandés et pilotés par la DGRIS ne sauraient engager sa respon- sabilité, pas plus qu’ils ne reflètent une prise de position officielle du ministère de la Défense. Il s’appuie par ailleurs sur un large réseau de partenaires : l’Institut français des relations internationales, le CFEE d’Addis-Abeba, l’IFRA Nairobi, le CSBA, LAM-Sciences Po Bordeaux, et le CEDEJ du Caire. Les notes de l’Observatoire de l’Afrique de l’Est sont disponibles en ligne sur le site de Sciences Po Paris. -
The Dynamics of the Amhara and Oromo Political Elites Contest and the Necessity of Bargaining
DSpace Institution DSpace Repository http://dspace.org Political Science Thesis and Dissertations 2021-07-22 THE DYNAMICS OF THE AMHARA AND OROMO POLITICAL ELITES CONTEST AND THE NECESSITY OF BARGAINING GENET, WORKINEH http://ir.bdu.edu.et/handle/123456789/12229 Downloaded from DSpace Repository, DSpace Institution's institutional repository BAHIR DAR UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES THE DYNAMICS OF THE AMHARA AND OROMO POLITICAL ELITES CONTEST AND THE NECESSITY OF BARGAINING BY WORKINEH GENET YIHUNIE JUNE, 2021 BAHIR DAR, ETHIOPIA BAHIR DAR UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES THE DYNAMICS OF THE AMHARA AND OROMO POLITICAL ELITES CONTEST AND THE NECESSITY OF BARGAINING A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN POLITICAL SCIENCE BY WORKINEH GENET YIHUNIE ADVISOR TADESSE AKLOG (Ph.D.) JUNE, 2021 BAHIR DAR, ETHIOPIA © Workineh Genet June, 2021 BAHIR DAR UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES THE DYNAMICS OF THE AMHARA AND OROMO POLITICAL ELITES CONTEST AND THE NECESSITY OF BARGAINING BY WORKINEH GENET Approved by Board of Examiners: …………………………… …. ………. …………………… Chair Person‘s Name Date Signature …………………………… …..……….. …………………… Internal Examiner‘s Name Date Signature ……………………………… ……………. …………………… External Examiner‘s Name Date Signature Declaration I, Workineh Genet, declare this thesis, titled; The Dynamics of the Amhara and Oromo Political Elites Contest and the Necessity of Bargaining, is my original work which has not been done by anyone and not submitted to any institution either for academic purpose or for policy frame work; and all the data sources consumed in this inquiry are acknowledged. -
Thematisch Ambtsbericht Tigray 2021
Thematisch Ambtsbericht Tigray 2021 Datum Augustus 2021 Pagina 1 van 63 Thematisch Ambtsbericht Tigray 2021 | Colofon Plaats Den Haag Opgesteld door Directie Afrika Sub-Sahara Afdeling Ambtsberichten Pagina 2 van 63 Thematisch Ambtsbericht Tigray 2021 | Inhoudsopgave Colofon ..........................................................................................................2 Inhoudsopgave ...............................................................................................3 Inleiding .........................................................................................................4 1 Politieke en veiligheidssituatie in Tigray ..................................................... 5 1.1 Politieke ontwikkelingen die de achtergrond vormen van het conflict ......................5 1.2 Veiligheidssituatie in Tigray (sinds november 2020) ........................................... 11 1.2.1 De belangrijkste strijdende partijen/actoren die geweld plegen in Tigray .............. 19 1.2.2 Vormen van geweld/gerichte geweldsmethodes of methodes die willekeurige slachtoffers maken ........................................................................................ 26 1.2.3 Willekeurig of gericht geweld tegen specifieke groepen ...................................... 28 1.2.4 Risico dat vrouwen lopen om slachtoffer van geweld te worden ........................... 32 1.2.5 Delen/plaatsen in Tigray waar geweld plaatsvindt (wijdverbreid of specifieke plekken?) .................................................................................................... -
How Prime Minister Abiy Envisions “New Ethiopia”: Moving Towards People's Reconciliation and Sustainable Economic Developm
Mitsui & Co. Global Strategic Studies Institute Monthly Report December 2019 HOW PRIME MINISTER ABIY ENVISIONS “NEW ETHIOPIA”: MOVING TOWARDS PEOPLE’S RECONCILIATION AND SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Tomomi Tokuori, EMEA & Russia Dept., Global Economic & Political Studies Div. Mitsui & Co. Global Strategic Studies Institute SUMMARY The vision for a “New Ethiopia” aspired to by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is as follows: (1) Firmly establish democracy and achieve reconciliation among Ethiopia’s people; (2) Maintain the current level of strong economic growth and become a “low and middle-income country” by 2030; and (3) Promote the peace in the “Horn of Africa” region, which will be essential for the long-term stability of Ethiopia, and play a leading role in the region both politically and economically. The most pressing challenge facing Prime Minister Abiy is winning the May 2020 general election. After this, in the short term, he will pursue political and economic reforms and the full-scale launch of infrastructure projects. In the medium-to-long term, his aims are to establish export-driven agriculture and manufacturing industries to increase employment and obtain foreign currency, and to make Ethiopia a continental-level manufacturing hub on the assumption of stability in the Horn of Africa region. Prime Minister Abiy’s leadership will be tested as Ethiopia accomplish reforms that will force pain on people. 1. SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION IN ETHIOPIA AND THE BIRTH OF A NEW LEADER Before discussing the challenges facing the Abiy administration, let’s first take a brief look at the history of Ethiopia and the background to Prime Minister Abiy’s political appointment. -
The Tigray War & Regional Implications
THE TIGRAY WAR & REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS (VOLUME 1) November 2020 to June 2021 1 CONTENTS 1. Foreword …………………………………………………………………………… 4 2. Introduction: war, offensives and atrocities 2.1 Overview …………………………………………………………………………… 7 2.2 Early attempts to halt the fighting ……………………………………………… 10 2.3 The war escalates …………………………………………………………………. 13 3. Ethiopia at war 3.1 The Federal Government v Tigray Regional State ……………………………. 16 3.2 Prime Minister Abiy’s short-lived whirlwind of reform ……………………... 30 3.3 An inexorable drive towards conflict 2018 – 2020 …………………………….. 49 3.4 President Isaias and Prime Minister Abiy – who is in the driving seat? ……. 60 4. Progress of the war 4.1 ENDF offensives along the southwestern front ……………………………….. 73 4.2 The northern fronts ………………………………………………………………. 76 4.3 The Southern Front ………………………………………………………………. 78 4.4 The ENDF’s strategy ……………………………………………………………... 78 4.5 Retreat and consolidation ……………………………………………………….. 80 4.6 TDF expansion and the start of semi-conventional warfare …………………. 82 4.7 Overall War Progress: November 2020 to May 2021 …………………………. 84 4.8 Conclusion ………………………………………………………………………… 88 5. The Ethiopian national context 5.1 Contextualising the war in Tigray ……………………………………………… 91 5.2 A threat to Ethiopia’s integrity? ………………………………………………… 92 5.3 Conflict and the rule of law ……………………………………………………... 94 5.4 Oromia politics and conflict - optimism and excitement ……………………. 95 5.5 Amhara politics and conflict …………………………………………………… 102 5.6 The south, east and west ……………………………………………………….. 112 5.7 Somali Region …………………………………………………………………… 113 5.8 Afar Region ……………………………………………………………………… 115 5.9 Benishangul Gumuz ……………………………………………………………. 116 5.10 Socio-economic stakes and the cost of the war ………………………………. 117 5.11 Concluding remarks ……………………………………………………………. 119 6. Diplomatic Efforts 6.1 UN Security Council and the African Union ………………………………… 122 6.2 The United States of America …………………………………………………. -
Ethiopia Re-Enters the Abyss of War
Ethiopia re-enters the abyss of war Januuary 29, 2021 by Kjetil Tronvoll Last time Ethiopia descended into conflict, it took 17 years to emerge. Will Ethiopia’s new leaders learn from history? The Ethiopian federal government’s “law enforcement operation” in Tigray aimed to capture the rebellious rulers in the northern regional state. Thus far, however, the core leadership is at large, and the campaign has further exposed the country’s political fragility, pushing it into the abyss of a likely long- term war. Reports of military recruitment and reinforcements sent to the northern front to battle the rebels are again heard in Ethiopia, reminiscent of the recurring news headlines of the 1970s and 80s. With the Tigray war now in its third month, the contours of how a drawn-out conflict may evolve are emerging. Meanwhile, elsewhere in Ethiopia, other armed insurgencies are evolving. As conflict lines deepen, pressure increases on the state’s security forces and capacity. The surge in violence worsens the dire humanitarian situation across the country, weakens the economy, and diverts government attention, resources, and funding from economic development to warring. The Tigray war will therefore impact politics, social cohesion, and development all over the country, Just like the 1974-1991 Tigrayan struggle. The military campaign on Tigray will be remembered as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s “crossing the Rubicon” moment. No matter the outcome, or how long it will take to reach a victory or settlement, Ethiopia will likely never return to the status quo ante. Steps to war This war has been long in the making. -
Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 2 - 18 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 2 - 18 November 2020 Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website. Key information (in addition to what is already widely published) Damage from the war (as confirmed per 18 November 2020) - Cities of Shire and Aksum have been attacked by the Ethopian National Defense Force (ENDF), Amhara Special Force, and the Eritrean army. Fighting takes place in close proximity to Eritrean refugee camps, which are under attack. This includes Hitsats camp with a population 25,248, many unaccompanied minors. UNHCR had earlier evacuated refugees and humanitarian staff from Shimelba camp to Hitsats. Also refugee camps Adu Harish and May Ayni under attack. The total population of the four camps is estimated at around 90.000 people. 5,000 Internally Displaced Persons are also in Shire. - It is reported that Shire, Raya area, including (South Tigray) and Aksum are now under control of the ENDF. BBC reported Aksum under Ethiopian Federal control. - Sources on the ground report that United Arab Emirates jets and drones were part of the attack on Mekelle, Shire and Aksum. -
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. Addis Ababa
Report No: 61631-ET Document of the World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized OPTIONS FOR STRENGTHENING LAND ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA (Executive Summary) !"# $% &'( )*# + ,- ./ 0$1 233 45 &67. 89 : # ;< =6> )/% ? / @92 &'( ABC;D BEFC"D 4G !F HI .7 233 J 45 FK+ 89 LM / =# %H/ 8# )/% NOP+33 K9 <Q 8# (High tenure security) ;< .%=: &/` // = ,- .# <a,+33 <Q 8# / b # ;;K/ = :c# d Oe )/f2+ *=: : #2 )*# C/ghi/j +# &/k4 )* lm/ 8no %p+33 JH d <Q 8# H-,O ,=C/ (encroachment) )# ;: N/ N )/%u F )# Ov m Fw/ ,:$+33 %Ci (access to land) &/k42 )* z u;{ ? : w /k |33 JH b4 $%} < $%} # &/k4 +/ .:~ N )e* (land-use plan) C#j .2/ M M + :+# + $% p - ;| + $% M |33 b=d !"# $% - )l+/ u/# 0$ p; ? H =M FK/ (vulnerable groups) e ;/ C * K9 8no %p+ 33 $%/# I / # K9 /D n7 )/$|# * } CD ! )/%.+ NK +* +33 )/% <## # m C +* )/%. F2 /: L ? )/% N 7 $% 5 ;< % MC 2O# dd *=: <;+33 JH ;< )/fH < %D | K9 &67.D# H CD v<$ )/%.M <+33 )/%. %:E zz- , )# K4 CD p zz F7 N $% 2O z <;+33 8/$ NK <Q =pa (land tenure regularization) : &/` / KMj - )l+# p ~ : w/ N =* /D 2O C33 / &'( a# .* !"# $% 0$'/ + + + { 233 45 )/ K9 !+ .+ /D# . +/ :-33 45 4 } / +e .m /k 2/ NK I :CD *p33 <H I KD +l =# : / Nj &/` /j # C< g p > :+n# /D 2 O+33 JH +* NK >;¡ 2 1 $%# N (Nation wide Sustainable Land Administration and Use System) )e* K9 ¢ +z/ %=£ N¤ 2<< %¥ + (: ## + .¦j 2009) 33 )/f $%# N C $<Fw %=£ : # .¦ )/f§§ %¨+33 b4 $%# N + ©}F (Land Admnistration and Land Use Development Project (LALUDEP) d M* (Concept Note) N¤ |O |<< %¥ + p} *pK :-+33 b=d 45 ) > 2 K9 &67.