THE TIGRAY WAR & REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS (VOLUME 1) November 2020 to June 2021 1 CONTENTS 1. Foreword …………………………………………………………………………… 4 2. Introduction: war, offensives and atrocities 2.1 Overview …………………………………………………………………………… 7 2.2 Early attempts to halt the fighting ……………………………………………… 10 2.3 The war escalates …………………………………………………………………. 13 3. Ethiopia at war 3.1 The Federal Government v Tigray Regional State ……………………………. 16 3.2 Prime Minister Abiy’s short-lived whirlwind of reform ……………………... 30 3.3 An inexorable drive towards conflict 2018 – 2020 …………………………….. 49 3.4 President Isaias and Prime Minister Abiy – who is in the driving seat? ……. 60 4. Progress of the war 4.1 ENDF offensives along the southwestern front ……………………………….. 73 4.2 The northern fronts ………………………………………………………………. 76 4.3 The Southern Front ………………………………………………………………. 78 4.4 The ENDF’s strategy ……………………………………………………………... 78 4.5 Retreat and consolidation ……………………………………………………….. 80 4.6 TDF expansion and the start of semi-conventional warfare …………………. 82 4.7 Overall War Progress: November 2020 to May 2021 …………………………. 84 4.8 Conclusion ………………………………………………………………………… 88 5. The Ethiopian national context 5.1 Contextualising the war in Tigray ……………………………………………… 91 5.2 A threat to Ethiopia’s integrity? ………………………………………………… 92 5.3 Conflict and the rule of law ……………………………………………………... 94 5.4 Oromia politics and conflict - optimism and excitement ……………………. 95 5.5 Amhara politics and conflict …………………………………………………… 102 5.6 The south, east and west ……………………………………………………….. 112 5.7 Somali Region …………………………………………………………………… 113 5.8 Afar Region ……………………………………………………………………… 115 5.9 Benishangul Gumuz ……………………………………………………………. 116 5.10 Socio-economic stakes and the cost of the war ………………………………. 117 5.11 Concluding remarks ……………………………………………………………. 119 6. Diplomatic Efforts 6.1 UN Security Council and the African Union ………………………………… 122 6.2 The United States of America ………………………………………………….. 123 6.3 European Union ………………………………………………………………… 129 6.4 Britain …………………………………………………………………………….. 131 6.5 Arab nations ……………………………………………………………………... 134 6.6 Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………….. 141 2 7. The Humanitarian Situation: Aid, Food Security and Famine 7.1 Food Security in Tigray ………………………………………………………… 142 7.2 Environmental drivers of hunger ……………………………………………... 143 7.3 Policy Driven Hunger 1970 – 1991 …………………………………………….. 149 7.4 Conflict-induced hunger ……………………………………………………….. 154 7.5 The Development Decades (1999 - 2020) ……………………………………... 157 7.6 Starvation in international law ………………………………………………… 168 7.7 The politicisation of aid ………………………………………………………… 193 7.8 Is history repeating itself? ……………………………………………………… 196 8. The plight of Eritrean refugees 8.1 Who are the refugees, and why are they in Ethiopia? ………………………. 199 8.2 The rapprochement ……………………………………………………………... 205 8.3 The war in Tigray begins ……………………………………………………….. 207 8.4 A Dark Future …………………………………………………………………… 217 9. Sexual violence in the Tigray conflict 9.1 A timeline of sexual violence …………………………………………………... 220 9.2 Number of rapes ………………………………………………………………… 222 9.3 Distinctive characteristics of sexual violence in the Tigray conflict ……….. 223 9.4 International law on sexual violence in armed conflict ……………………... 225 9.5 UN resolutions on sexual violence in armed conflict ……………………….. 226 9.6 The international community’s response …………………………………….. 226 9.7 The Ethiopian Government’s response ……………………………………….. 231 9.8 Conclusion - meaningless paper or justice for Tigrayan women? …………. 232 10. The destruction of Tigray’s world important cultural heritage ………….. 233 10.1 Attacks on Churches and Mosques …………………………………………… 237 10.2 Other massacres/damage to churches and religious sites ………………….. 239 10.3 Attacks on the ‘Sacred Landscapes’ and ‘Cultural Heritage’ of Tigray’ ……241 10.4 The concern of international scholars …………………………………………. 246 11. Acknowledgements ……………………………………………………………. 252 12. About Eritrea Focus …………………………………………………………….. 253 13. Oslo-Analytica ………………………………………………………………….. 253 14. Abbreviations …………………………………………………………………… 253 3 1. Forward By Habte Hagos, Chair of Eritrea Focus The tragic, brutal and entirely predictable war in Tigray has brought immense suffering to the Tigrayan people, exacerbated the long suffering of the Eritrean people and caused misery to families across the Horn of Africa. This report is an attempt to capture the complexities of the war and the events that led up to it. It includes detailed explanations of everything from the origins of the conflict and the looted treasures of the region to the atrocities committed against the Tigrayan people in general and women in particular. The authors have attempted to provide a dispassionate analysis of these dramatic events, from a variety of perspectives. Eritrea Focus encourages this diversity of opinions, without endorsing all the views contained in the report. Although the atrocities we have chronicled are despicable and horrific, they should not come as a surprise. Almost every single atrocity inflicted on innocent Tigrayan civilians have been, and are being, committed against the people of Eritrean. Their heroic fight for independence, and against Ethiopian oppression, culminated in the liberation of Asmara in 1991 and our de-jure independence in 1993. Yet our hard- won freedom has been illusory: Eritrea has become a prison-state for its people. President Isaias Afwerki’s regime is not constrained by a functioning constitution, a parliament or an effective judicial system. It is an absolute dictatorship by a leader who has never faced an election. The 2020 Country Report on Human Rights Practices issued in March 2021 by the US Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor on Eritrea graphically described the atrocities committed by the Eritrean regime against its people1: “Significant human rights issues included: unlawful and arbitrary killings, forced disappearance; torture; and arbitrary detention, all committed by the government; harsh and life-threatening prison and detention center conditions; political prisoners; serious problems with judicial independence; arbitrary or unlawful interference with privacy; the worst forms of restrictions on free expression and the press, including censorship and the existence of criminal libel laws; substantial interference with the rights of peaceful assembly and freedom of association; severe restrictions on religious freedom; widespread restrictions on freedom of movement; inability of citizens to change their government peacefully through free and fair elections; restrictions on political participation; trafficking in persons; criminalization of consensual same-sex sexual conduct; and the worst forms of child labor”. 1 Eritrea - United States Department of State 4 These atrocities, and others, have been chronicled annually since 2014 by the UN Human Rights Commission.2 However, the international community has failed to use the information in these reports to take action against the Eritrean government; instead preferring to look the other way. This has left Eritrea’s people to suffer in perpetuity, behind closed doors. These horrific abuses, first inflicted on the Eritrean people, are now being exported to Tigray. The inaction of the international community has made this possible. This report was conceived on the day of the outbreak of the Tigray war in November 2020 and has been brought together over many months. It is being published as events are unfolding in the most dramatic fashion. The re-capture of Mekelle on Monday 28 June by Tigrayan forces, in what can only be described as a stunning victory for the Tigray Defence Forces, has transformed the situation. However, it has not been possible to capture all aspects of these transformative events in this version of the report. We aim to provide a fuller, updated version at a later date. At this critical moment Eritrea Focus – as an Eritrean human rights organisation – calls for the following. First: The immediate, unconditional and verifiable withdrawal of all Eritrean forces from Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia. Unless the Eritrean troops withdraw immediately, the unilateral ceasefire proclaimed by the Ethiopian government on 28 June will leave large areas of Tigray under occupation. This cannot be the basis for peace and will prolong the war in which thousands of Eritrean youth continue to perish. Second: In the light of the famine now gripping Tigray, with 900,000 identified as close to starvation, it is vital that all bottlenecks and roadblocks on Ethiopian roads, preventing humanitarian assistance reaching the needy, are removed. The ports of Eritrea and Djibouti must also be open to shipping so that aid from the international community can flow through them. The aid route through Sudan (used during the 1984-85 famine) also needs to be re-opened. These measures are both vital and urgent. Third: Those responsible for the atrocities committed during the war – especially those who systematically abused women and sent underage Eritrean children to war – must be held to account. This requires an internationally recognised, independent investigation and reference to international courts, if local courts prove incapable of prosecuting those involved. No-one – including the leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea – should be granted immunity. Fourth: All works of art and means of production, as well as personal belonging, looted by the occupying powers, must be returned. An international commission should be established to take stock of what has been stolen, and