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Disinformation in Tigray

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Disinformation in Tigray Disinformation in Tigray: Manufacturing Consent For a Secessionist War May 2021 Cover Photo: TPLF leader “Aboy” (father) Sebhat Nega captured by Ethiopian National Defense Forces on January 8, 2021. (Courtesy of Ethiopian News Agency) Acknowledgements The preparers of this report by New Africa Institute would like to thank officials from the African Union, United Nations, Ethiopia and Eritrea for their assistance. New Africa Institute 601 West 26th Street Suite 325-53 New York, NY 10001 © New Africa Institute, 2021. Published on May 9, 2021. This material is offered free of charge for personal and non-commercial use, provided the source is acknowledged. For commercial or any other use, prior written permission must be obtained from the New Africa Institute. In no case may this material be altered, rented or sold. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS HISTORICAL CONTEXT ................................................................................................................................................................... III LOWERING EVIDENTIARY STANDARDS ..................................................................................................................................... 8 “COMMUNICATIONS BLACKOUT” .................................................................................................................................................................................. 8 “RESTRICTED HUMANITARIAN ACCESS” ................................................................................................................................................................... 10 ASSESSING THE ALLEGATIONS .................................................................................................................................................. 13 PRESENCE OF ERITREAN TROOPS ............................................................................................................................................................................. 13 RAPE AND SEXUAL VIOLENCE ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 WIDESPREAD CRIMINALITY IN TIGRAY ....................................................................................................................................................................... 19 MAI KADRA MASSACRE ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 22 AXUM MASSACRE ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 MARYAM DENGELAT MASSACRE ............................................................................................................................................................................... 29 THE SHOOTING OF MONALISA ABRAHA .................................................................................................................................................................. 32 ABDUCTION AND KILLING OF ERITREAN REFUGEES ............................................................................................................................................. 33 ASSESSING WESTERN MEDIA COVERAGE ............................................................................................................................. 36 TPLF STARTED AND INTERNATIONALIZED THE CONFLICT ................................................................................................................................ 36 PORTRAYALS OF TPLF AS “BATTLE HARDENED” ................................................................................................................................................ 39 “CIVIL WAR” AS A SELF-FULFILLING PROPHESY .................................................................................................................................................... 41 INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP’S PRO-TPLF BIAS ............................................................................................................................................. 43 IGNORING TPLF’S UNPOPULARITY IN TIGRAY ........................................................................................................................................................ 45 IGNORING TPLF’S ASSAULT ON TIGRAYAN CIVILIANS ........................................................................................................................................ 45 COORDINATED DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN? .......................................................................................................................................................47 TPLF DISINFORMATION NETWORK ........................................................................................................................................... 47 UNILATERAL SECESSION REQUIRES DISINFORMATION ........................................................................................................................................47 STAGE 1: BRIEFING WESTERN CONTACTS ...............................................................................................................................................................47 STAGE 2: DEVELOPING A PRO-TPLF NARRATIVE ................................................................................................................................................ 49 STAGE 3: CREATING FACTS ON THE GROUND ....................................................................................................................................................... 51 STAGE 4: AMPLIFYING PRIMARY SOURCES ............................................................................................................................................................ 54 STAGE 5: PRODUCING HIGH-LEVEL REPORTS ...................................................................................................................................................... 58 STAGE 6: DEMANDING INTERNATIONAL ACTION ................................................................................................................................................... 59 SUPPORTING TPLF AT ALL COSTS ............................................................................................................................................ 60 POWERFUL FRIENDS IN WASHINGTON ..................................................................................................................................................................... 60 NEGOTIATIONS TO RESCUE TPLF ............................................................................................................................................................................. 61 TPLF: BEYOND ACCOUNTABILITY............................................................................................................................................................................. 63 SCAPEGOATING ERITREA ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 64 FAILURE OF US POLICY IN THE HORN ...................................................................................................................................................................... 65 CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 66 RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 68 iii Executive Summary The conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray state, one of Ultimately, the disinformation serves to Ethiopia’s ten regional states, is an irredentist, manufacture consent for an unpopular irredentist, ethnic secessionist war led by the Tigray People’s ethnic secessionist war that could not be justified Liberation Front (TPLF) against the multiethnic in the eyes of the international public through federal government. Although the conflict honest reporting. This publication shows how a officially started on November 4, 2020 after TPLF “communications blackout” is used as a attacked the federal government’s Northern justification by the media to accept and forward Command based in Tigray, this showdown had information of poor integrity. been brewing for many years—decades, actually. With the fall of TPLF in late November came the Following the fall of the previous regime in 1991, consequent failure of US policy in the Horn of TPLF assumed power and created a system of Africa. Since then, the Western media has, “ethnic federalism” in which newly delineated retroactively and proactively, forwarded a number regional states were created on the basis of of allegations of crimes against the people of ethnicity. TPLF, which governed Ethiopia through Tigray perpetrated by the Ethiopian and Eritrean corruption and ethnocentric policies with US militaries. Eritrea has served as the primary support, fell from power in 2018 following mass scapegoat. protests that brought to power a new Prime Minister, Dr. Abiy Ahmed Ali. Though PM Abiy has Alleged crimes include massacres,
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