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CJ O Shopping (035760 KS) Company Report Jul 3, 2018 CJ O Shopping (035760 KS) Retail Giant in media-commerce 2Q18E preview We estimate CJ O Shopping’s (CJOS) consolidated sales at W572.7bn (+2% YoY), OP at W56.6bn (-13% YoY), and net profit from controlling interest (NPCI) at W39.4bn (+21% YoY). CJ O Shopping and CJ E&M merged on Jul 1. We estimate their combined 2Q18 sales at W1.04tn (+6% YoY), OP at W83.9bn (-5% YoY), and NPCI at W69.4bn (-84% YoY). NPCI likely fell, as CJ E&M saw W500.9bn in asset valuation gains after Netmarble’s rights offering in 2Q17. By division, broadcasting OP likely came to W25.7bn (Studio Dragon W8.9bn, other W16.8bn), film -W1.3bn, music W2.0bn, live entertainment W1.0bn, home Rating HOLD (I) shopping (parent) W42.2bn, and CJ Hello W15.5bn. Target price W289,000 (I) Post-merger investment points Current price (Jun 29) W279,600 1) Cleared uncertainties: Amid investor doubts over post-merger synergies, shares of both Upside potential 3% companies have remained below that at which shareholders can exercise appraisal rights (E&M W93,153; CJOS W227,398). However, the total amount of exercised appraisal rights 1685.8 came to W503.9bn, just above the firm’s budget of W500.0bn. Thus, the merger was Market cap (Wbn) (excluding new shares) 21,926,384 successfully concluded. 2) CJ Hello disposal: The sunset clause on regulations capping pay Shares outstanding (including new shares) TV operators’ market share at one third of the total came into effect on Jun 27, 2018. In line Avg daily T/O (2M, Wbn) 8 with our telecom sector report on June 18, 2018, we believe there is now visibility on Avg daily volume (2M, shrs) 31,997 Korean telcos’ acquisitions of cable TV operators. The merged entity (CJOS and E&M) will 52-week high (won) 279,600 dispose of CJ Hello if it receives a good offer. 3) “Produce 48”: The third season of the 52-week low (won) 183,000 mega-hit audition show has raised expectations. First, through OTT video streaming service Foreign ownership (%) 23.9 “Global Tving,” viewers around the world, except those in Korea, Japan, and China, can Major shareholders (%) now watch the show in real time and enjoy other content. If this generates a meaningful level of traffic, the company will monetize Global Tving by introducing diverse revenue CJ Corp & others 42.7 streams, such as advertising, content sales, and commerce. Second, a joint project between Korea and Japan will launch the show’s final 12-member girl group, boosting the Stock performance company’s music production revenue. According to media reports, the contract term for the (%) 1M 3M 12M girl group will be two and half years, enough time to generate sales from music and Absolute 27.8 25.1 44.9 concerts overseas. 4) Long-term synergies: We expect to see meaningful synergies when Relative 35.9 32.4 18.3 Abs (US$) 23.5 19.6 48.4 post-merger integration finishes, traffic to Tving increases, and the global digital content production capacity of “Dia TV” and “Dada Studio” improves. In 2018, many of its shows, such as “Youn’s Kitchen 2,” “Newlyweds Diary,” and “Mister Sunshine” feature “Odense,” CJOS’ private-label tableware. If CJOS sells its private-label products via a media commerce channel, that channel’s margin is likely to be higher than the firm’s existing home shopping margin. Although the company has to plan, manufacture, and manage inventory of private-label products, their COGS-to-sales ratio is low, and thus, margin is high. Target price We reinstate coverage at HOLD and a target price of W289,000, based on the sum-of- the-parts method. We value the company’s stake in CJ Hello at W275.6bn (6-month average market cap of W681.5bn x 25% discount x 53.9% stake). Assuming CJ Hello’s M&A value at W1.9tn (4.29mn subscribers x W450,000), the company’s stake in CJ Hello is valued at W1.04tn (M&A value W1.9tn x 53.9% stake). Reflecting this stake value, the company’s target price should rise to W324,000. Our target price W289,000 does not reflect the impact of post-merger synergies. CJ O Shopping (035760 KS) CJ E&M and CJ O Shopping: combined earnings forecast (Wbn) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E CJ O Shopping GMV 3,071.5 3,176.1 3,055.6 3,161.0 3,743.8 4,200.6 4,704.7 5,269.3 Chg (% YoY) 8% 3% -4% 3% 18% 12% 12% 12% Combined sales 4,229.6 3,975.1 3,655.9 3,747.0 4,010.1 4,325.9 4,713.7 5,062.0 CJ E&M 1,716.1 1,370.2 1,347.3 1,538.4 1,750.1 2,023.6 2,293.7 2,489.9 - Broadcasting 770.8 825.9 909.5 1,128.4 1,294.2 1,510.7 1,768.2 1,945.0 - Film 208.9 211.3 238.3 189.6 198.7 231.9 230.4 235.0 - Music 239.6 194.0 184.1 199.4 230.7 236.6 248.4 260.9 - Live entertainment - 10.3 15.4 21.0 26.6 44.5 46.7 49.0 CJ O Shopping 2,513.5 2,604.9 2,308.6 2,208.6 2,260.0 2,302.3 2,420.0 2,572.1 - O Shopping 1,260.7 1,277.3 1,119.4 1,095.9 1,136.4 1,153.0 1,279.7 1,433.2 - Hello 1,010.5 1,084.8 1,182.6 1,100.6 1,119.9 1,115.3 1,105.4 1,104.0 Combined OP 316.7 236.6 262.3 206.9 287.6 334.4 420.1 494.3 CJ E&M 58.5 2.2 52.7 28.0 63.2 128.1 189.7 250.5 - Broadcasting 2.0 2.5 46.2 46.5 61.8 105.0 165.8 226.6 - Film 4.7 -4.1 6.0 -23.9 -9.0 7.9 8.6 8.6 - Music -14.9 -5.0 0.7 7.2 11.8 11.3 11.3 11.3 - Live entertainment - -8.4 -0.2 -1.8 7.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 CJ O Shopping 258.2 234.4 209.7 178.9 224.5 206.3 230.4 243.8 - O Shopping 157.2 142.2 114.1 144.9 157.5 166.3 186.3 208.6 - Hello 94.1 91.3 105.0 42.9 72.9 44.4 48.6 39.7 Combined op margin 7% 6% 7% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% CJ E&M 3% 0% 4% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% - Broadcasting 0% 0% 5% 4% 5% 7% 9% 12% - Film 2% -2% 2% -13% -5% 3% 4% 4% - Music -6% -3% 0% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% - Live entertainment - -81% -1% -9% 26% 9% 8% 8% CJ O Shopping 10% 9% 9% 8% 10% 9% 10% 9% - O Shopping 12% 11% 10% 13% 14% 14% 15% 15% - Hello 9% 8% 9% 4% 7% 4% 4% 4% Combined pre-tax profit 233.9 153.8 221.7 129.7 776.6 416.5 524.1 604.2 Pre-tax margin 6% 4% 6% 3% 19% 10% 11% 12% Combined NP, CI 139.8 319.2 139.1 85.6 559.4 306.5 380.1 438.5 Net margin 3% 8% 4% 2% 14% 7% 8% 9% [Growth; % YoY] Combined sales 25% -6% -8% 2% 7% 8% 9% 7% Combined OP 6% -25% 11% -21% 39% 16% 26% 18% Combined NP, CI -29% 128% -56% -38% 554% -45% 24% 15% Source: Yuanta Securities 2 Company Report CJ E&M and CJ O Shopping: combined quarterly earnings forecast (Wbn) 2017 2018 2019 Full-year 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE 2017 2018E 2019E CJ O Shopping GMV 904.1 918.1 889.7 1,031.9 999.8 1,019.1 1,005.4 1,176.4 1,119.8 1,141.4 1,126.0 1,317.5 3,743.8 4,200.6 4,704.7 Chg (% YoY) 23% 21% 15% 16% 11% 11% 13% 14% 12% 12% 12% 12% 18% 12% 12% Combined sales 940.6 988.7 980.8 1,100.0 1,041.2 1,044.5 1,066.3 1,174.0 1,100.3 1,156.9 1,167.9 1,288.5 4,010.1 4,321.1 4,715.0 CJ E&M 394.2 425.4 440.1 490.4 476.5 471.7 507.4 568.0 512.2 560.8 576.3 644.3 1,750.1 2,018.8 2,295.0 - Broadcasting 285.7 332.1 317.2 359.1 340.4 379.6 371.2 419.5 397.5 444.2 435.5 490.9 1,294.2 1,512.0 1,769.5 - Film 56.5 44.5 47.6 50.0 65.6 34.0 67.1 65.2 40.6 55.5 68.3 66.0 198.7 225.8 230.4 - Music 47.4 47.1 66.3 69.8 56.2 49.5 59.7 71.2 59.0 52.0 62.7 74.8 230.7 236.6 248.4 - Live entertainment 4.6 1.6 8.9 11.4 14.4 8.6 9.4 12.0 15.1 9.1 9.9 12.6 26.6 44.5 46.7 CJ O Shopping 546.4 563.4 540.7 609.6 564.7 572.7 558.9 606.0 588.1 596.1 591.6 644.2 2,260.0 2,302.3 2,420.0 - O Shopping 274.9 290.4 259.0 312.1 272.4 287.2 273.5 320.0 304.6 310.5 306.3 358.4 1,136.4 1,153.0 1,279.7 - Hello 275.2 275.7 278.2 290.8 284.6 276.8 276.7 277.3 274.8 276.9 276.6 277.1 1,119.9 1,115.3 1,105.4 Combined OP 76.9 88.3 61.9 60.5 89.9 83.9 87.3 73.2 107.0 102.1 100.4 110.6 287.6 331.6 420.4 CJ E&M 23.4 23.6 12.7 3.5 34.5 27.4 39.8 26.5 47.9 44.1 51.2 46.5 63.2 125.3 189.9 - Broadcasting 20.1 24.0 9.2 8.6 24.6 25.7 27.8 26.8 39.7 40.1 42.3 43.7 61.8 105.2 166.1 - Film 1.9 -1.6 -1.7 -7.6 5.2 -1.3 6.0 -2.0 3.6 1.0 3.0 1.0 -9.0 4.8 8.6 - Music 2.4 2.0 6.8 0.6 2.7 2.0 5.5 1.2 2.7 2.0 5.5 1.2 11.8 11.3 11.3 - Live entertainment -1.0 -0.7 6.8 1.9 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 7.0 4.0 4.0 CJ O Shopping 53.5 64.7 49.2 57.1 55.5 56.6 47.5 46.7 59.1 58.0 49.2 64.1 224.5 206.3 230.4 - O Shopping 38.6 46.6 30.4 41.9 43.2 42.2 34.0 46.9 48.4 47.2 38.1 52.6 157.5 166.3 186.3 - Hello 17.6 19.1 18.5 17.6 13.4 15.5 14.6 0.9 11.8 11.9 12.2 12.7 72.9 44.4 48.6 Combined op margin 8% 9% 6% 6% 9% 8% 8% 6% 10% 9% 9% 9% 7% 8% 9% CJ E&M 6% 6% 3% 1% 7% 6% 8% 5% 9% 8% 9% 7% 4% 6% 8% - Broadcasting 7% 7% 3% 2% 7% 7% 7% 6% 10% 9% 10% 9% 5% 7% 9% - Film 3% -4% -4% -15% 8% -4% 9% -3% 9% 2% 4% 2% -5% 2% 4% - Music 5% 4% 10% 1% 5% 4% 9% 2% 5% 4% 9% 2% 5% 5% 5% - Live entertainment -22% -43% 76% 16% 14% 12% 5% 4% 13% 11% 5% 4% 26% 9% 8% CJ O Shopping 10% 11% 9% 9% 10% 10% 9% 8% 10% 10% 8% 10% 10% 9% 10% - O Shopping 14% 16% 12% 13% 16% 15% 12% 15% 16% 15% 12% 15% 14% 14% 15% - Hello 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% 6% 5% 0% 4% 4% 4% 5% 7% 4% 4% Combined pre-tax profit 92.2 592.4 59.9 32.1 120.2 95.8 109.6 91.0 147.6 125.7 125.3 125.5 776.6 413.7 524.3 Pre-tax margin 10% 60% 6% 3% 12% 9% 10% 8% 13% 11% 11% 10% 19% 10% 11% Combined NP, CI 62.0 437.5 37.4 22.5 91.8 69.4 79.5 65.9 107.1 91.2 90.9 90.9 559.4 304.5 380.3 Net margin 7% 44% 4% 2% 9% 7% 7% 6% 10% 8% 8% 7% 14% 7% 8% [Growth; % YoY] Combined sales 10% 8% 7% 4% 11% 6% 9% 7% 6% 11% 10% 10% 7% 8% 9% Combined OP 13% 29% 20% 221% 17% -5% 41% 21% 19% 22% 15% 51% 39% 16% 26% Combined NP, CI 35% 548% 32% -140% 48% -84% 112% 193% 17% 31% 14% 38% 554% -45% 24% Source: Yuanta Securities 3 CJ O Shopping (035760 KS) Target price: based on sum-of-the-parts Value Note (A) CJOS enterprise value (EV) W1.81tn (B) + (C) (B) CJOS parent EV W1.45tn Parent NP W132.0bn x target P/E of 11x 2018E CJOS parent NP W132.0bn Homeshopping target P/E 11x (C) Value of
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