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Iraq Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq

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Iraq Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq Divi THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036-2188 Tel: 202-797-6000 Fax: 202-797-6004 www.brookin gs.edu Iraq Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq www.brookings.edu/iraqindex Updated September 20, 2004 Michael E. O’Hanlon Adriana Lins de Albuquerque For more information please contact Adriana Lins de Albuquerque at [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS Security Indicators Page U.S. Troop Fatalities since May 1, 2003…….…………………………………………..……………………………...3 Top Five Causes of U.S. Military Fatalities in Iraq since May 1, 2003………………………….……………...............……….3 Locations of Frequent U.S. Military Fatalities Since May 1, 2003…………………………………………………………….4 U.S. Troops Wounded in Action since May 1, 2003……………………………..……………………………...……..4 British Troop Fatalities since May 2003………………………………….……………….…………………...........5 Non-U.S. & U.K. Coalition Troop Fatalities since May1, 2003…….…………………………………………….....5 Non-U.S. & U.K. Coalition Troop Fatalities by Country since May 1, 2003…….………………………………………….....6 Iraqi Police Killed…………………………………………………………………………………………………….6 Iraqi Interpreters Working for Coalition Forces Killed…………………………………………………………………………6 Estimates of Iraqi Civilians Killed Since the Start of the War …………………………………………………….……………7 Iraqi Civilian Killed as a Result of Acts of War since May 2003……………………………………………………………...7 Mass Casualty Bombings in Iraq…………..…………………………………..……………..………...…..………..8 Crime-Related Deaths in Baghdad ………….………………………………………………………………………9 Total Iraqi Civilians Killed as a Result of Political and Criminal Violence…….………………………….....…..10 Non-Iraqi Civilian Casualties since May 2003…………………..…………………………….................................10 Foreign Nationals Kidnapped in Iraq Since May 2003…………………………………………………………….11 Suspected Insurgents Detained or Killed …………..……………...…….……………………….............................11 Iraqi Prison Population……………………………………………………………………………………………12 Estimated Strength of Iraqi Resistance Nationwide…………………....………………………………………....12 Coalition Troop Strength in Iraq ………….………………………………………………………………………13 U.S. Troops Engaged in Operation Iraqi Freedom Stationed in the Vicinities of Iraq and at Sea………....….13 Top Ten Non-U.S. Coalition Contributors of Military Personnel in Iraq…………………………………...…..14 Coalition Forces Activity……………………………………………………………………………………... ……14 “High-Value” Intelligence Reports……………………………………………………………………………….15 Insurgent Attacks on Coalition Forces……………………………………………………………………………..15 Reward Offered by Insurgents for Attacking U.S. Troops ………….……………………………………...........15 Insurgent Attacks on Iraqi Security Forces and Iraqi Civilians....………………………………………..….….15 American Military Helicopters Downed by Enemy Fire …………………………………………………….…...16 Attacks on Iraqi Oil and Gas Pipelines, Installations, & Personnel ………….…………………...…..................17 Baathist Leaders Still at Large ………………...…………………………………………………..........................17 Size of Iraqi Security Forces on Duty ………..…………………………………………………………………….18 Major Property Crimes Reported to Baghdad Police Department …………………………………..……….....19 Economic & Quality of Life Indicators Iraqi National Debt: Creditors……………………………………………………………………..........................20 Pledges Made at the International Donor’s Conference for Iraq in Madrid …………………….…………….21 World Bank estimate of Iraq Reconstruction Needs………………………………………………………….......22 CPA-Estimated Needs for Iraq Reconstruction in Sectors not Covered by the UN/World Bank Assessment..22 Total Funds Available, Obligated, and Disbursed for Iraq Reconstruction, as of April, 2004… ……….….....22 Project Allocations and Disbursement by Category, as of May, 2004……………………………………....…...23 USAID Contracts……………………………………………………………………………………………....……23 Fuel……………………………..…………………………………………………………………………………….24 Electricity…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….25 Value of the New Iraqi Dinar…………………………………………………………………….…..............……..25 Port Cargo Capacity and Commercial Aircraft Departments……………………………………………...……26 Irrigation……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..26 Telecommunications………………………………………………………………………………...........................26 Local Governance Councils………………………………………………………………………............................26 Hospitals Restored to Pre-War Level of Operations……………………………………………………………...26 Nationwide Unemployment Rate…………………………………………………………………………………...27 Polling 10 August-20 August, 2004: International Republican Institute Poll…………………………………………....28 24 July- 2August , 2004: International Republican Institute Poll……………………………………………………………29 End of June, 2004: Iraq Center for Research and Strategic Studies Poll……………………………………….30 9-19 June, 2004: Coalition Provisional Authority Poll……………………………………………………............30 14-23 May, 2004: Coalition Provisional Authority Poll……………………………………………………….....31 22 March-9 April, 2004: CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, Nationwide Poll of Iraq…………………………......39 24 March – 2 April, 2004: Coalition Provisional Authority Poll……………………..……………………....…40 9-28 February, 2004: Oxford Research International Study of Iraqi Public Opinion…………………….…..41 31 December –7 January, 2004: State Department Study of Iraqi Public Opinion………………….…………41 Later Polling: State Department Study &Gallup Poll…………………………………………………………….43 2 SECURITY INDICATORS 1 U.S. TROOPS FATALITIES SINCE MAY, 2003 131 122 82 74 Fatalities (all kinds) 70 Fatalities in hostile action 66 Fatalities in non-hostile incidents 59 55 55 54 51 50 48 46 46 44 43 42 40 41 37 36 33 33 29 30 30 27 25 22 21 18 19 18 18 15 15 14 13 12 12 11 12 12 11 8 9 9 5 5 4 0 h ly t r ay er ary pril u M une July b May J gus be J nu A June u August ember em ember Marc A pt October v Ja ec February eptem Se No D S Totals as of September 20, 2004: Fatalities (all kinds): 891 Fatalities in hostile incidents: 670 Fatalities in non-hostile incidents: 221 2 TOP FIVE CAUSES OF U.S. MILITARY FATALITIES IN IRAQ SINCE MAY 1, 2003 40.00% 37.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 23.00% 22.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 9.00% 5.00% 5.00% 4.00% 0.00% Improvised explosive Hostile fire Vehicle accident Rocket Propelled Ambush Other device (IED) Grenade (RPG) As of September 16, 2004 NOTE ON U.S. TROOP FATALITIES SINCE MAY TABLE: From the start of the war on March 19 until the end of major combat operations on April 30, 2003, Operation Iraqi Freedom caused 138 American troop fatalities. Of those, 109 were the result of hostile action, and 29 the result of non-hostile action. 65 U.S. troops were killed in March 2003. There were a total of 73 American fatalities in April 2003, 22 of which were killed after April 9. Of those 22, 10 were the result of hostile action and 12 the result of non-hostile action. 3 LOCATIONS OF FREQUENT U.S. MILITARY FATALITIES SINCE MAY 1, 20033 250 198 200 150 100 91 77 59 50 43 34 32 28 17 16 0 Baghdad Greater al- Falluja Mosul Ramadi Samarra Balad Baquba Tikrit Taji Anbar province As of September 17, 2004 4 U.S. TROOPS WOUNDED IN ACTION SINCE MAY, 2003 1200 1000 1,014 911 824 800 600 614 512 400 413 337 329 291 247 261 226 200 181 191 147 151 54 0 y y r a uly a ne ust e M J M u July g b June April J u m August tember March A te p October January p e ovember ecember February S N D Se Totals as of September 15, 2004: 6,703 NOTE ON LOCATIONS OF FREQUENT U.S. MILITARY FATALITIES SINCE MAY 1, 2003 TABLE: These ten locations, where the greatest number of American fatalities have occurred, account for at least 595 of the 886 American military fatalities suffered in Iraq since May 1, 2003 and up until September 17, 2003. NOTE ON U.S TROOPS WOUNDED IN ACTION SINCE MAY 1, 2003 TABLE: The number of troops wounded in action is updated in the Iraqi Index every Wednesday. 541 American troops were wounded in action between March 19 and April 30, 2003. 4 BRITISH TROOP FATALITIES SINCE MAY, 20035 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 11 1 11 1 0 0 000 y r l ly t a er us M July gust b May Ju g June u Apri June u A embe Jan-04 March A pt October vem February eptember Se No December S Total as of September 20: 33 NON-U.S. & U.K. COALITION TROOP FATALITIES SINCE MAY, 20036 30 27 25 20 15 10 8 7 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 000 0 0 y er ar rch ust July b ber u May July June m to mber r a April June ug e c Jan-04 M May-03 August O cember eb A ept ove e F eptember S N D S Total as of September 20, 2004: 69 NOTE ON BRITISH TROOP FATALITIES SINCE MAY 1 TABLE: Up until May 1, 2003, Operation Iraqi Freedom caused 33 British troop fatalities. Of those 33 fatalities, 6 occurred during the month of April. Of the 6 fatalities that occurred in April, 2 occurred after April 9. NOTE ON NON-U.S. & U.K. COALITION TROOP FATALITIES SINCE MAY 1 TABLE: Excluding American and British troop fatalities, there were no coalition fatalities from the start of the war up until May 1. All such fatalities occurred after that date. 5 7 NON-U.S. & U.K. COALITION TROOP FATALITIES BY COUNTRY SINCE MAY, 2003 20 19 18 16 14 13 12 11 10 8 8 6 6 4 3 22 2 11111 0 d a a y n ria nd or i a nds d Italy la a a a ton gar o Spain lg ail lv n Latvia P Ukraine u lovaki erl a Es B S h Th Denmark S Hu et l N E As of September 20, 2004 IRAQI POLICE KILLED Total number of Iraqi police killed since May, 2003 as of August 4, 2004 7108 IRAQI INTERPRETERS WORKING FOR COALITION FORCES KILLED Total number of Iraqi police killed since January, 2004 as of September 18, 2004 529 NOTE ON IRAQI POLICE KILLED: According to Lieutenant Qassem of the Iraqi Facilities Protection Services, the rate of Iraqi police killed by insurgents dropped by almost 50% in April, 2004 to roughly a dozen fatalities. Scott Peterson,
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