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사이클론에 대한 피지의 방재력 정량화 연구 Quantitative Resilience Analysis of Fiji to Cyclones

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사이클론에 대한 피지의 방재력 정량화 연구 Quantitative Resilience Analysis of Fiji to Cyclones 한국방재학회논문집 기상방재 제12권 2호 2012년 4월 pp. 55 ~ 63 사이클론에 대한 피지의 방재력 정량화 연구 Quantitative Resilience Analysis of Fiji to Cyclones 유순영*·김성욱**·박경호***·오창환****·박덕근*****·김창용****** Yu, Soonyoung·Kim, Sung Wook·Park, Kyung-Ho·Oh, Chang Whan·Park, Dug Keun·Kim, Chang Yong ·································································································································································································································· Abstract Resilience Cost is applied to quantitatively assess the resilience and the vulnerability of Fiji to tropical cyclones (TCs), based on historical damage data. The resilience cost, which was developed by the US Department of Homeland Security to protect critical infrastructures, is the sum of the system impact and the total recovery effort. The higher resilience cost indicates that the system is less resilient. Study results show that the resilience of Fiji to TCs depends on the strength and the path of a TC as well as inven- tory in affected areas. In particular, the northern division whose economy is based on commercial agriculture of sugar cane is vul- nerable to TCs due to the frequency of TCs as well as the vulnerability of agriculture to TCs. This study result demonstrates that the resilience cost is a good indicator to determine a location to give priority to for resilience enhancement or recovery resources and can be used to assess causes of vulnerability. In addition, the resilience cost may be used to determine optimal recovery strat- egies if integrated with a modeling, simulation, and analysis program given scenario analysis capabilities. Key words : Resilience cost, System impact, Recovery effort, Priority, Causes of vulnerability 요지 피지의 사이클론 피해 보고서를 바탕으로 사이클론에 대한 피지의 방재력을 정량적으로 측정하고 취약성을 분석해 보고자 리 질리언스 비용을 활용하였다. 미국 국토안보부가 국가기반시설 리질리언스 확보 연구를 위해 고안한 리질리언스 비용은 시스템 영향과 복구노력의 합으로, 상대적 수치 비교를 통해 시나리오 간의 리질리언스를 정량적으로 비교한다. 연구 결과, 사이클론에 대한 피지의 방재력은 사이클론의 카테고리, 이동 경로, 피지 도달 시점에서의 카테고리 및 피해지역의 인구분포와 자산 등에 영향을 받으며, 특히 상업적 농업 활동의 비중이 큰 북부지역이 사이클론에 취약함을 알 수 있었다. 이는 사이클론이 북서부지 역에서 주로 발생하고, 농업활동이 사이클론에 크게 영향을 받기 때문인 것으로 보인다. 본 연구의 연구 결과는 리질리언스 비 용이 다양한 이해관계 속에서 긴급 지원이 필요한 곳에 우선순위를 지정하고, 취약 원인을 분석하는데 유용하게 사용될 수 있 음을 보여준다. 또한 모의 기술을 통한 시나리오 평가 연구가 함께 수행될 경우, 리질리언스 비용은 최적의 복구 전략을 수립 하는데도 크게 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 핵심용어 : 리질리언스 비용, 시스템영향, 복구노력, 우선순위, 취약 원인 ·································································································································································································································· 1. 서론 력의 크기를 나타내는 시스템의 특성으로 사용되도록 권고된 바 있다(Klein 등. 2003). 여기서 시스템이란 규모에 따라 국가 안보를 위해 재난 연구에도 리질리언스(resilience) 개 국가, 도시, 마을이 될 수 있으며, 목적물에 따라 교통, 물자, 념이 도입되기 시작하였다(Klein 등, 2003 Vulgrin 등, 2010). 전력, 수자원, 에너지 공급 시스템 등일 수 있다. 시스템의 여기서 리질리언스는 개념 자체의 복잡성으로 인해 여러 분 리질리언스는 생태학자 Holling(1973)이 처음 정의한 것으로 야에서 사용자마다 각기 달리 정의하여 사용하는 용어로, 재 알려지고 있으며, 그의 정의에 따르면 리질리언스는 시스템의 난 관리의 경우, 시스템이 흡수할 수 있는 소요(disturbance) 지속 능력 및 외부 변화를 흡수하여 현 상태를 유지하는 능 의 크기 및 스스로 재조직(self-organization) 할 수 있는 능 력이다. Holling(1973) 이후 많은 사람들이 유사하게 리질리 ******정회원·국가수리과학연구소 계산수리과학연구부 연구원(E-mail : [email protected]) ******지아이 지반정보연구소 대표 ******(주)본이앤씨 ******전북대학교 지구환경과학과 교수 ******정회원·국립방재연구원 지반방재연구팀 시설연구관 ******정회원·한국건설기술연구원 SOC성능연구소 Geo-인프라 연구실 연구위원(교신저자) 55 언스를 정의하고 있으며, 공통적으로 외부력에 의한 변화 압 력에 저항하는 능력의 의미를 담고 있다(Vugrin 등, 2010). 방재선진국 미국은 재난으로부터 국가기반시설을 보호하기 위해 국가기반시설보호(Critical Infrastructure Protection, CIP)에 리질리언스 개념을 통합하기 시작하였다. 이는 기반시 설의 물리적인 보강만으로는 국가 안보를 실현할 수 없기 때 문으로, 재난 시에도 주요한 시설물의 기본 기능이 유지될 수 있는 국가 시스템을 만들기 위해서이다. 미국 국토안보부 주 도하에 연구되는 국가기반시설 리질리언스(Critical Infrastructure Resilience, CIR)는 Vugrin 등(2010)에 의해 “특정 사건 발생시 시스템의 성능(System Performance, SP)을 목표치(Target System 그림 리질리언스 비용 등 Performance, TSP)로부터 크게 떨어트리지 않고, 목표치 이 1. (Vulgrin , 2010) 하의 성능을 보이는 시간도 짧게 줄일 수 있는 시스템의 능 력”으로 정의되어 사용되고 있다. Vugrin 등(2010)의 리질리 비용이 크면 시스템 영향이 크거나 총 복구노력이 많이 소요 언스 연구 목적은 재난 이전 기반시설의 리질리언스를 강화 되어 시스템의 리질리언스가 좋지 않은 것으로 해석한다. 또 하고 재난 직후 빠르고 효율적인 최적의 복구 대책을 수립하 한 동일 재난과 동일 시스템의 리질리언스 비용을 측정하더 고자 하는 것으로, 특히 기존의 리질리언스 연구와 달리 복 라도, 시스템영향 및 총 복구노력을 평가하는 방법에 따라 구 노력의 중요성을 강조하고 있다. 리질리언스 비용이 달라질 수 있으므로, 절대적인 수치보다는 국내에서도 리질리언스란 용어가 회복력(2010년 ICLEI 세 상대적인 비교를 통해 의미를 갖게 된다. 특히 리질리언스 계환경회의), 방재력(국립방재교육연구원, 2010) 등으로 번역 비용은 기존의 연구 방법과 달리 리질리언스 평가에 있어 시 되어 재난 연구에 사용된 바 있다. 특히 국립방재교육연구원 스템 영향뿐만 아니라 복구 노력도 중요함을 강조하고 있다. (2010)은 도시 방재력을 번역하기 위해 리질리언스라는 용어를 즉 그림 1에서 시스템영향만 보면 시스템 1과 시스템 2의 사용하였는데, 이는 기존에 널리 번역되던 disaster prevention 리질리언스는 동일하다. 그러나 시스템 1에 투입된 복구노력 또는 disaster reduction과는 다른 개념으로, 국내에서도 리질 이 더 큼을 고려한다면, 시스템 2가 더 리질리언스가 확보된 리언스 연구가 시작되는 계기가 되었다고 할 수 있다. 본 논 시스템이라 할 수 있다. 또한 동일한 사건에 대해 특정 시스 문에서는 리질리언스를 Vugrin 등(2010)의 리질리언스와 같 템의 영향 및 복구 시간은 복구 노력 방법에 따라 달라질 이 정의하고, 필요에 따라 방재력으로 번역하였다. 수 있다. 이에 Vugrin 등(2010)은 리질리언스 비용을 특정 본 논문은 Vugrin 등(2010)의 리질리언스 비용(resilience 복구활동에 의한 리질리언스(Recovery Dependent Resilience, cost) 방법을 통해 피지의 방재력을 평가하고자 한다. 이러한 RDR) 비용과 최적의 리질리언스(Optimal Resilience, OR) 분석 과정은 “리질리언스 비용”이 국내에서 지역방재력을 비 비용으로 구분하여 각각 계산하였다. 교하고 취약성을 분석하는데 있어 지수로 사용될 수 있음을 본 연구논문은 허리케인 아이크(Ike) 직후 화학제품 공급망 검토하고자 함이다. 국내의 경우, 방재력 평가에 관한 연구는 의 리질리언스 비용을 평가한 Warren 등(2010)과 같이, 기존 일부 찾아볼 수 있으나(김경남, 2008; 국립방재교육연구원, 의 재해 사례를 통해 시스템영향과 복구노력을 평가하고, 리 2010), 방재력을 정량화하여 비교 분석할 수 있는 기법에 관 질리언스 비용을 계산하고자 하였다. 이미 발생한 사건을 대 한 연구는 아직 부족한 실정이다. 방재력은 다면적 속성으로 상으로 리질리언스 연구를 수행할 경우, 실제 자료가 사용됨 인해 정의하기 쉽지 않고, 측량은 더더욱 어려운 개념이나, 으로 리질리언스 해석 결과의 검증이 가능하다. 또한 유사 산재한 국가 현안들 사이에서 시급성을 판단하기 위한 지수 사건에 대비하여 리질리언스 확보책을 강구하는데 유용하게 로써 정량화될 필요가 큰 개념이기도 하다. 활용될 수 있다. 그러나 기 발생된 사건의 리질리언스를 평 가하기 위해서는 시스템영향과 복구노력을 측정할 수 있는 2. 연구방법 적절할 자료가 필요한데 이를 구하는 것이 쉽지 않다. 실제 많은 사람들이 시스템의 회복력, 복구력을 연구하기 위해 리질리언스 비용을 고안한 미국 국토안보부의 경우도, 자료 리질리언스 개념을 사용하고 있으나, 리질리언스를 정량적으로 부족 문제로 현재 민관이 함께 자료 구축을 활발히 수행 중 평가한 연구는 Bruneau 등(2003), Chang 등(2004), Rose(2007), 이다. 또한 자료 부족 등의 이유로 모의 기술을 리질리언스 Vugrin 등(2010)과 같이 극히 소수에 불과하다. Vugrin 등 비용 평가에 크게 활용하고 있다(Vulgrin 등, 2010, Vugrin (2011)은 이들 방법들을 비교하고, Vugrin 등(2010)에 의해 등, 2011, 유순영, 2011). 모의 기술의 시나리오 평가 기능은 개발된 리질리언스 비용의 우수성을 검증한 바 있다. 이에 복구 시나리오에 따른 리질리언스 비용 차이를 평가하고 최 본 연구는 Vugrin 등(2010)의 리질리언스 비용 방법을 활용 적의 복구 방법을 결정하는데 활용될 수 있다. 또한 복구 과 하여 피지의 국가 방재력을 측정해 보고자 한다. 정에서 시스템의 영향이 변화하는 과정도 모의할 수 있으므 리질리언스 비용은 시스템 영향(System Impact, SI)과 총 로, 이에 따른 최적의 복구 전략을 실시간으로 결정하는데도 복구노력(Total Recovery Effort, TRE)의 합으로, 리질리언스 도움을 줄 수 있다. 56 한국방재학회논문집, 제12권 2호 2012년 4월 3. 연구지역 피지 표 3. 호주의 열대성 사이클론 강도 등급 (Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale) 2010년 제4차 UN 재해경감 아시아 각료회의에서 채택된 분 평균 풍속 행동계획(Action plan)의 완성도 높은 수행을 위해, 재해 취 이름 카테고리 10 돌풍 (sustained winds) (gusts) 약국들을 대상으로 하는 국제연구사업을 검토하고 미흡한 부 Severe tropical 5 >200 km/h >279 km/h 분을 보완하기 위한 신규 사업이 기획될 필요가 있다. 특히 cyclone 피지를 포함한 남태평양 지역의 도서국들은 열대성 사이클론 Severe tropical 4 160-200 km/h 225-279 km/h cyclone 의 피해에 매우 취약하나 지리적 고립성, 소규모 인구, 낙후 Severe tropical 된 기반 시설 등으로 인해 자연재해관리체계가 미흡한 실정 3 118-159 km/h 165-224 km/h Cyclone 이다. 이에 본 논문에서는 사이클론에 대한 피해 조사가 비 Tropical cyclone 2 89-117 km/h 125-164 km/h 교적 잘 이루어지고 있는 피지를 선택하여, 사이클론의 취약 Tropical cyclone 1 63-88 km/h 91-125 km/h 원인을 분석하고 방재력 강화가 시급한 지역을 찾아보고자 Tropical Low - <63 km/h 91 km/h 리질리언스 비용을 적용하여 보았으며, 향후 본 연구 방법이 재해취약국은 물론 국내 방재 전략 수립에 도움이 될 수 있 고려할 북서쪽 섬들이 높은 피해 위험에 놓였다고 할 수 있 을지 알아보고자 하였다. 다(FMS, 2012). 특히 최근에는 지구온난화, 산림벌채, 인구증 피지는 남태평양 서부 멜라네시아의 남동부에 있는 국가로, 가 및 무분별한 도시계획 등으로 사이클론의 피해가 잦아지고 행정구역상 중부, 동부, 서부, 북부의 4개 지역으로 구분되어 있으며, 사이클론 이외에도 열대 저압부(tropical depression)와 관리되고 있다(표 1). 연중 부드러운 남동무역풍의 영향으로 저압계(low pressure system)가 돌발 홍수의 원인이 되고 있다. 극단적으로 비가 많이 오지는 않으나, 여름철 우기(11월-4월) 피지는 자연재해관리법(Natural Disaster Management Act, 에는 열대성 사이클론의 영향을 받기도 한다(그림 2). 1월과 1997)에 의해 조성된 재해복구기금(National Disaster Relief 2월에 가장 빈번하게 발생하는 열대성 사이클론은 평균적으 and Rehabilitation Fund)에도 불구하고 경제규모에 비해 큰 로 10년에 10~15개가 피지에 영향을 미치고 있으며, 이 중 사이클론 피해가 매년 반복되고 있어, 복구 비용을 선진국 2~4개는 치명적인 피해를 입히고 있다(FMS, 2012). 특정 지 및 국제기구로부터 원조받고 있다(표 2). 피해지역의 복구비 역이 수년 동안 연속적으로 직접 피해를 입은 적은 없으나, 를 해외로부터 조달받기 위해 재난 직후 피해 상황을 비교적 사이클론이 대개 북서쪽에서 발생하여 남동쪽으로 이동함을 잘 정리하고 있으며 , 피해 내역뿐만 아니라, 비상대응결과, 원 조상황, 복구계획 및 향후대책 등을 보고하고 있다.
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