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Home , Sergio Mattarella

Global Economics & Markets Research Email: [email protected] URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Macro Note : On Course For A

Monday, 05 March 2018 Former Italian PM ’s centre-right coalition is set to win the most seats in the lower house of the after Sunday’s election, according to exit polls which forecast no overall winner and political deadlock for the country. It is expected to get between 225-265 seats – below the 316 needed for an absolute majority. Suan Teck Kin, CFA Head of Research Exit polls put the anti-establishment in second place. It has made significant [email protected] gains since the last election and could emerge as the largest single party, with about 30% of votes and 195-235 seats. The country’s ruling centre-left stands in third place Lee Sue Ann Economist with a projected 115-155 seats. [email protected] More than 46 million people were eligible to vote on Sunday, including abroad who already mailed in their ballots. The country’s Interior Ministry will release official results during the night with a final outcome likely to be revealed at around 2pm local time (9pm SGT) today.

Italy’s 2018 Election Provisional Results

Silvio Berlusconi 40 (FI) Northern League (NL) Five Star Movement (M5S) 30 Democratic Party (PD)

20

10

0 Centre-Right Five Star Movement Centre-Left

Source: Italy’s Ministry of Interior (as of SG 05 March 2018, 2pm), The , AFP, Getty Images UOB Global Economics & Markets Research

Italy: On Course For A Hung Parliament Monday, 05 March 2018 1 Page Forming A Government May Now Take Weeks As highlighted in our earlier report: Italy’s Looming Election, a hung parliament outcome was our baseline scenario, and whilst this could raise political uncertainty in the EU, we do not expect market confidence towards Italy to decline markedly given the overall positive macroeconomic backdrop in Europe.

With no single party or coalition winning a parliamentary majority, Italy would still have a government, because remains as PM. Back-room dealings start before parliament reconvenes on 23 March. Lawmakers pick new speakers for the lower house and the Senate, offering the first clue to new alliances. If the search for a premier stalls, President Sergio Mattarella will be in no hurry to make the choice and could give parties several weeks to negotiate. Mattarella will also consult the various parliamentary groups to see if there is a figure who can command a majority, and if not, new elections could be called.

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