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Macro Note Italy: on Course for a Hung Parliament

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Macro Note Italy: on Course for a Hung Parliament Global Economics & Markets Research Email: [email protected] URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Macro Note Italy: On Course For A Hung Parliament Monday, 05 March 2018 Former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right coalition is set to win the most seats in the lower house of the Italian parliament after Sunday’s election, according to exit polls which forecast no overall winner and political deadlock for the country. It is expected to get between 225-265 seats – below the 316 needed for an absolute majority. Suan Teck Kin, CFA Head of Research Exit polls put the anti-establishment Five Star Movement in second place. It has made significant [email protected] gains since the last election and could emerge as the largest single party, with about 30% of votes and 195-235 seats. The country’s ruling centre-left Democratic Party stands in third place Lee Sue Ann Economist with a projected 115-155 seats. [email protected] More than 46 million people were eligible to vote on Sunday, including Italians abroad who already mailed in their ballots. The country’s Interior Ministry will release official results during the night with a final outcome likely to be revealed at around 2pm local time (9pm SGT) today. Italy’s 2018 Election Provisional Results Silvio Berlusconi Matteo Salvini 40 Forza Italia (FI) Northern League (NL) Luigi Di Maio Five Star Movement (M5S) 30 Matteo Renzi Democratic Party (PD) 20 10 0 Centre-Right Five Star Movement Centre-Left Source: Italy’s Ministry of Interior (as of SG 05 March 2018, 2pm), The Financial Times, AFP, Getty Images UOB Global Economics & Markets Research Italy: On Course For A Hung Parliament Monday, 05 March 2018 1 Page Forming A Government May Now Take Weeks As highlighted in our earlier report: Italy’s Looming Election, a hung parliament outcome was our baseline scenario, and whilst this could raise political uncertainty in the EU, we do not expect market confidence towards Italy to decline markedly given the overall positive macroeconomic backdrop in Europe. With no single party or coalition winning a parliamentary majority, Italy would still have a government, because Paolo Gentiloni remains as PM. Back-room dealings start before parliament reconvenes on 23 March. Lawmakers pick new speakers for the lower house and the Senate, offering the first clue to new alliances. If the search for a premier stalls, President Sergio Mattarella will be in no hurry to make the choice and could give parties several weeks to negotiate. Mattarella will also consult the various parliamentary groups to see if there is a figure who can command a majority, and if not, new elections could be called. Recent Publications 02 Mar Macro+FX Strategy: US - President Trump Announces Impending Steel & Aluminum Tariffs 01 Mar Italy’s Looming Election 01 Mar US: Hawkish Hints From Powell’s First House Testimony Stir Markets 01 Mar Malaysia: BNM To Keep Neutral Stance Amid Slower Inflation 28 Feb Rates Strategy: Money Market Rates Turn Higher In February Disclaimer: This analysis is based on information available to the public. Although the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, UOB Group makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness. Also, opinions and predictions contained herein reflect our opinion as of date of the analysis and are subject to change without notice. UOB Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in, currencies and financial products mentioned herein. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction, without reliance upon UOB Group or its affiliates, the reader should determine, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences, of the transaction and that the reader is able to assume these risks. This document and its contents are proprietary information and products of UOB Group and may not be reproduced or otherwise. Singapore Company Reg No. 193500026Z.
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