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The Conference on the Future of Europe a New Model to Reform the EU?

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The Conference on the Future of Europe a New Model to Reform the EU? The Conference on the Future of Europe A New Model to Reform the EU? Federico Fabbrini* WORKING PAPER No 12 / 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction 2. Plans for the Conference on the Future of Europe 3. Precedents of the Conference on the Future of Europe 4. The rules on EU treaty reform 5. The practice of inter-se treaties outside the EU legal order 6. Reforming the EU through a Political Compact 7. Conclusions ABSTRACT The paper offers a first analysis of the recent plan to establish a Conference on the Future of Europe to reform the European Union (EU), comparing this initiative with two historical precedents to relaunch the EU – namely the Conference of Messina and the Convention on the Future of Europe – and considering the legal rules and political options for treaty reform in the contemporary EU. To this end, the paper overviews prior efforts to reform the EU, and points out the conditions that led to the success or failures of these initiatives. Subsequently it examines the technicalities of the EU treaty amendment rules and emphasizes the challenge towards treaty reform resulting from the need to obtain unanimous approval by all member states. The paper then assesses the increasing tendency by member states to use inter-se international treaties – particularly in response to the euro-crisis – and underlines how these have introduce new ratification rules, overcoming unanimity. Drawing lessons from these precedents, finally, the paper suggests what will be a condition for the success of the Conference on the Future of Europe, and argues that this should resolve to draft a new treaty – a Political Compact – designed to push forward integration among those member states that so wish. KEYWORDS Conference on the Future of Europe – EU reform – Treaty Amendments – Political Compact * Federico Fabbrini is Full Professor of EU Law at Dublin City University where he is the Founding Director of the Brexit Institute. He holds a PhD in Law from EUI and is a Charlemagne Fellow (2019-2020). The author is grateful to Giuliano Amato for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper, but bears sole responsibility for the content of the paper. Brexit Institute Working Paper Series – No 12 / 2019 The Conference on the Future of Europe A New Model to Reform the EU? Federico Fabbrini 1. Introduction Since March 2017 – on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome,1 and at the same time when the United Kingdom (UK) notified its intention to leave the European Union (EU)2 – Europe has been engaged in a lively debate about its future. This process of reflection, which was formally triggered by a European Commission whitepaper on the future of Europe,3 involved the European Parliament (EP),4 the European Council,5 as well as many member states,6 offering the opportunity to reflect on Europe’s challenges and to advance new ideas for further European integration. In particular, French President Emmanuel Macron unveiled in a number of speeches an ambitious plan for a sovereign, united and democratic Europe7 – and ahead of the EP elections in 2019, he proposed in an open letter, addressed to all European citizens and written in all the official languages of the EU, to promptly set up a Conference for Europe as a way to renew the EU and to “propose all the changes our political project needs.”8 Following the EP elections in May 2019 – which for the first time in the history of European integration saw a major increase in citizens’ participation9 – the idea of a Conference on the future of Europe was taken on board by the leaders of the new EU institutional cycle. In particular, the new President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen committed in her political guidelines to establish “a Conference on the future of Europe,”10 and appointed a vice-President of the Commission on Democracy and Demography specifically charged to lead this process.11 The Commission proposed to conceive the Conference as a two-year process to start in early 202012 – and with Brexit formally happening with the withdrawal of the UK from the EU on 31 January 202013 – the idea quickly gained traction as a way to relaunch the EU project at 27. In fact, the EP endorsed the project of a Conference on the future of Europe and in a document prepared for the Conference of Presidents expressed the firm view that the Conference should be a process ultimately designed to lead toward treaty changes in the EU.14 1 Rome Declaration, 25 March 2017. 2 See Federico Fabbrini (ed.), The Law & Politics of Brexit (Oxford University Press 2017). 3 European Commission whitepaper on “The Future of Europe”, 1 March 2017. 4 European Parliament resolution of 16 February 2017 on possible evolutions of and adjustments to the current institutional set-up of the European Union, P8_TA(2017)0048. 5 Sibiu Declaration, 9 May 2019. 6 Franco-German Declaration, Meseberg, 19 June 2018. 7 French President Emmanuel Macron, speech at Université La Sorbonne, 26 September 2017; and speech at the award of the Prix Charlemagne, Aachen, 11 May 2018. 8 French President Emmanuel Macron, Lettre Pour Une Renaissance Européenne, 4 March 2019. 9 European Parliament press release, “2019 European Elections: Record Turnout Driven by Young People”, 24 September 2019 (reporting a 50.6% turnout for EP elections, which is the largest participation increase since 1979). 10 European Commission President candidate Ursula von der Leyen, “A Union that strives for more: My Agenda for Europe. Political Guidelines for the Next European Commission 2019-2024”, 16 July 2019, 19. 11 European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Mission Letter to Dubravka Šuica, 10 September 2019. 12 European Parliament Conference on the Future of Europe, Main Outcome of the Working Group, 19 December 2019. 13 See Federico Fabbrini (ed.), The Law & Politics of Brexit. Volume 2: The Withdrawal Agreement (Oxford University Press 2020). 14 EP Conference of Presidents, Main outcome of the WG Conference on the Future of Europe, 19 December 2019. 2 Brexit Institute Working Paper Series – No 12 / 2019 Given the ongoing efforts to establish a Conference on the Future of Europe aimed at relaunching and renewing the EU, this paper discusses whether the Conference on the future of Europe can serve as a new model to reform the EU, and if so, how the process should be designed to succeed. To this end, the paper examines in comparative and historical perspective past conferences and conventions in the process of European integration, with the aim to draw lessons from prior EU treaty reforms initiatives to inform the shape and scope of the Conference on the future of Europe. Moreover, it analyzes the formal legal rules for treaty change enshrined in the current Treaty on the EU (TEU), contextualizing them in light of the increasing tendency by the member states to conclude inter-se agreements outside the legal order of the EU. By studying the models and mechanisms historically employed in the process of European integration to reform the EU, and by drawing lessons from the successes and failures of prior efforts at treaty change, therefore, the paper seeks to provide guideposts for the architects of the Conference on the Future of Europe on how to secure the success of this initiative. The paper argues that the Conference on the Future of Europe can be an innovative model to reform the EU – analogous to prior out-of-the-box initiatives such as the Conference of Messina and the Convention on the Future of Europe. However, learning from these precedents, the paper claims that if the Conference on the Future of Europe wants to succeed in its ambitious objective to reform the EU, it must tackle the key issue of the EU treaty change rules. As the paper explains, in fact, the EU treaty amendment rule – by conditioning changes to the EU treaty to the approval by all the member states meeting in an intergovernmental conference (IGC) and unanimous ratification at the national level – represents a formidable obstacle to reforming the EU. However, as the paper points out, in recent years – particularly in responding to the euro-crisis – EU member states have increasingly resorted to inter-se international agreements concluded outside the EU legal order – which have done away with the unanimity requirement. Drawing on this experience, therefore, the paper suggests that policy-makers involved in the Conference on the Future of Europe should resolve to draft a new treaty – call it Political Compact – and submit it to a new ratification rule – which replaces the unanimity requirement with a super-majority vote – as this will be a necessary pre- condition for the success of the Conference. As such the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 overviews the early policy proposals on the institutional organization and constitutional mandate on the Conference on the future of Europe put forward so far by leading EU and national decision-makers. Section 3 maps in historical and comparative perspective several precedents of the Conference on the Future of Europe – notably the Conference of Messina and the Convention on the Future of Europe – and highlights some of the conditions for the success and failures. Section 4, then, analyzes the formal rules for treaty change enshrined in EU primary law, emphasizing the requirement of unanimous ratification for treaty changes which is set therein – and the vain proposals to overcome it. Section 5 explains how – given the failure to amend the EU treaty amendment rule – member states have increasingly resorted to inter-se international agreements outside the EU legal order to avoid ratification crises. Building on this analysis, section 6 highlights a key condition that determined the success or failure of prior initiatives to reform the EU – namely the rules on ratification of the new treaty change – and suggests that the Conference on the Future of Europe should therefore reflect on producing a Political Compact, whose entry into force would be subject to less-than-unanimous ratification rules.
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