Climate Change 101: Adaptation

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Climate Change 101 Adaptation The Earth’s climate is rapidly changing. In the United States and other nations, people are seeing how the impacts of rising global temperatures affect their communities, their livelihoods, and the natural environment. Substantially reducing greenhouse gas emissions is essential to avoiding the worst impacts of climate change. But mitigation alone is not enough. Even with emission reductions, some warming will still occur. Adaptation planning at the local, state, and national levels can limit the damage caused by climate change, as well as the long-term costs of responding to climate-related impacts that are expected to grow in number and intensity in the decades to come.

Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. For more than 50 years, the Earth’s climate has been changing because of increasing greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil, as well as deforestation and other human activities.1 The warming of the Earth’s atmosphere and waters, loss of land and sea ice, and rising global sea levels are not new phenomena. However, these global changes have been occurring at increasing rates in the last 30 years, particularly in the last decade. Science shows that climate change will continue, and accelerate, in the years ahead, with significant impacts on everything from our coastlines and our health to water supplies, ecosystems, and other natural resources. Figure 1. Shishmaref, AK. Erosion from winter storm surges required the village to be relocated. Source: Shishmaref Erosion & Relocation Coalition

Warming and impacts vary by location. If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, the continental United States is In general, scientists expect the United States to see over- expected to warm one-third more than global averages,2 meaning all increases in precipitation (along with decreases in some that Americans can expect an increase of 3–7ºC (5.4–12.6ºF), areas, such as the Southwest), including increases in the depending on where they live. For Alaska and the Arctic region intensity of hurricanes and more intense heavy rainfalls. as a whole, warming projections of 4–11ºC (7.2–19.8ºF) are Projections also indicate declines in snowpack, earlier at least double the mean increase for the world.3 Already, the snow and ice melt in areas including the West and Great Arctic region is experiencing an array of impacts, including: Lakes regions, and more land areas affected by drought and severe winter storm surges and flooding; infrastructure dam- wildfires (see Table 1).5 Sea-level rise will affect the U.S. age and loss; land erosion; species loss; and the displacement coastline to varying degrees, with the most severe impacts of people and communities (see Figure 1).4 projected along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines,

This brief is part of a series called Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change, published by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States. including potentially significant losses of coastal wetlands.6 severe weather events within very large regions, these mod- All of these impacts will affect food and water supplies, els typically do not yet provide reliable projections at smaller natural resources, ecosystems, and human life and property scales, such as for individual towns or local ecosystems. As (see Table 2). Especially hard hit will be plants and animals, a result, the exact location and timing of these events can- as they will have more difficulty adapting to large-scale, not be forecasted with certainty. rapid changes in climate, compared to human societies. Where the climate changes at a rate or to a level beyond The Case for Adaptation Planning their ability to adapt, many species will not survive.7 While Limits on emissions will not be enough, or happen soon enough, models can project levels of drought, precipitation and to avoid all impacts of climate change. Reducing emissions will

Table 1. Sample of Projected U.S. Regional Climate Impacts3,5 Impacts Region Coastal flooding/erosion8 South, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, Northwest, Alaska Hurricanes Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas Decreased snow cover and ice, more intense winter Alaska, West, Great Lakes, Northeast storms Flooding/intense precipitation All regions, increasing with higher northern latitude Sea-level rise Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas, San Francisco Bay/ Sacramento Delta region, Puget Sound, Alaska, Guam, Puerto Rico Decreased precipitation and stream-flow Southwest Drought Portions of the Southeast, Southwest (see Figure 2) Wildfires8 West, Alaska Intense heat waves8 All regions

Table 2. Sample of U.S. Sectors and Projected Impacts Sector Impacts Freshwater resource Salination of freshwater; water table/aquifer depletion; increased runoff and management7,9,10,11 pollution of freshwater sources; earlier runoff in snowpack-dominated areas. Agriculture7,9,10,11 Changes in yields due to precipitation and temperature extremes; increases in pests and disease; salination of irrigation water; changes in timing of biological events. Coastal resources7,9,10,11 Inundation of low-lying areas from storm surges, sea level rise, stronger hurricanes and tropical storms; infrastructure damage; wetland loss; saltwater intrusion; loss of habitat; human displacement. Forestry7,9,10,11 Forest loss to drought, wildfires, infestation, diseases, species migration and loss. Tourism and recreation10 Shorter winter recreation season due to reduced snowcover; longer summer season; loss of beaches to tropical storms, storm surges; loss of forest to wildfires. Public health/health services7,9,10 Increased levels of heat stress, respiratory illness, chronic disease, human displacement (short-term and long-term), infectious disease, and premature death. Transportation infrastructure10 Damage from sea-level rise, erosion, flooding and temperature extremes.

2 CLIMATE change 101: PREPARING FOR A WARMING WORLD Figure 2 U.S. Drought Monitor T]`bVSeSSY]T=Qb]PS` $ %

Legend: Drought Intensity

Abnormally Dry

Drought Severe

Drought Exceptional

Drought Moderate

Drought Extreme

Source: NOAA, USDA, National Drought Mitigation Center

decrease the magnitude of global warming and its related impacts. But carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases can Glossary of Terms remain in the atmosphere for decades or centuries after they Adaptation: Actions by individuals or systems to avoid, with- are produced. This means that today’s emissions will affect stand, or take advantage of current and projected climate the climate for years to come, just as the warming we are changes and impacts. Adaptation decreases a system’s experiencing now is the result of emissions produced in the vulnerability, or increases its resilience to impacts. past. Because of this time lag, the Earth is committed to Adaptive Capacity: A system’s inherent ability to adapt to some additional warming no matter what happens now to re- climate change impacts. duce emissions. As a result, there are unavoidable impacts already built into the climate system. With worldwide emis- Impact: An effect of climate change on the structure or sions continuing to rise, adaptation efforts are necessary to function of a system. reduce both the cost and severity of both mitigation and climate change impacts for decades to come. Mitigation: Actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Resilience: The ability of a system to withstand negative Current model projections underestimated actual rates of climatic impacts without losing its basic functions. changes and impacts. Recent scientific research demonstrates that many aspects of climate change are happening earlier or System: A population or ecosystem; or a grouping of natu- more rapidly than climate models and experts projected.12 The ral resources, species, infrastructure, or other assets. rate of change projected for global surface temperatures, and Vulnerability: The potential for a system to be harmed related impacts such as ice melt and sea-level rise, is unprec- by climate change, considering the impacts of climate edented in modern human history. We now have nearly two change on the system as well as its capacity to adapt. decades of observations that overlap with model projections. Comparing the model projections to the observations shows the models underestimated the amount of change that has ac- tually occurred. For instance, sea-level rise has occurred 50 underestimated.13,14 Adapting to climate change will become percent faster than the projected rate, and the area of summer that much harder, and that much more expensive, to the ex- Arctic sea ice has decreased at three times the projected rate, tent that the changes happen faster, or on a larger scale, than while several other aspects of climate change have also been we expect going forward.15

Climate change 101: PREPARING FOR A WARMING WORLD 3 Acting now to limit the potential damage from climate change is often Successful Approaches to Adaptation smarter—and costs less in the long run—than acting later. There is Adaptation services are emerging as governments, busi- a human tendency to address current or near-term climate im- nesses, and communities worldwide are recognizing the need pacts in a just-in-time fashion (for example, water conservation to address current and potential climate change impacts measures to prevent droughts in some southeastern U.S. cities (see Box 3: Adaptation Planning Resources for U.S. State were started only after a severe shortage was evident). and Local Action). Common elements in terms of methodology, or processes, for confronting climate change impacts This approach may work when: the impacts are predict- include, but are not limited to: able or slow in developing; solutions are available and can be implemented in time to save lives, property, or natural Recognize that adaptation must happen at local and regional lev- resources; and there is low risk of irreparable harm. Even els. Climate changes and their associated impacts vary greatly under these conditions, however, people often overlook or from location to location. Although national and international delay solutions that reduce the ultimate risk of harm. “Proac- action is essential, many important decisions about how best tive adaptation” requires assessing the vulnerability of natural to manage systems affected by climate change are made at lo- and man-made systems (see Glossary of Terms), as well as cal and regional levels. For example, states and localities have the costs and benefits of action versus inaction, and plan- authority over land use planning decisions, including zoning ning alternatives accordingly. This approach recognizes the and building codes, as well as transportation infrastructure. In need to factor climate change into decisions that affect the some cases, state authority is extending to provide insurance long-term susceptibility of systems to the impacts of climate coverage where the private market is retreating, exposing these change. From the methods for building or repairing bridges, states to larger financial risks. In exercising these authorities, dams, and other infrastructure, to the rules and regulations managers, planners, and policy makers need to account for the governing coastal development and wetland protection, the potential outcomes of climate change. Yet systems such as wa- decision whether to consider climate change now will have ter resources and species span city, county, and state lines. As a implications down the line. result, adaptation also requires planners from government, the private sector, and others to coordinate their activities across Some systems and societies are more vulnerable to the impacts jurisdictions. Those engaged in planning need to share infor- of climate change than others. Climate change will affect a wide mation, plan together, and collaboratively modify existing poli- array of systems including coastal settlements, agriculture, cies and procedures to ensure efficient and effective solutions. wetlands, crops, forests, water supply and treatment systems, The exchange of information, resources, best practices, and and roads and bridges. The vulnerability of different systems lessons learned across jurisdictional lines and among differ- varies widely. For example, the ability of natural systems to ent groups of stakeholders is a key element of successful adapt to increasing rates of climate change is generally more adaptation planning. limited than built systems.16 Similarly, some countries or regions, such as the United States, may be better able to adapt Identify key vulnerabilities. Adaptation planning requires an un- to climate change, or have a greater “adaptive capacity,” than derstanding of those systems that are most at risk—and why. others. By contrast, the adaptive capacity of many developing That means finding answers to questions in three key areas: countries is often limited by a number of vital factors, such as economic or technological resources (See Table 3). Even • Exposure: What types of climate changes and impacts within developed countries such as the United States, some can we expect, and which systems will be exposed? areas have lower adaptive capacity than others. Smart plan- What is the plausible range of severity of exposure, ning ensures that governments and communities are paying including the duration, frequency, and magnitude of attention to those systems that are most vulnerable, while lay- changes in average climate and extremes? ing the groundwork for actions to reduce the risk to human life, • Sensitivity: To what extent is the system (or systems) ecosystems, infrastructure, and the economy. likely to be affected as a result of projected climate

4 CLIMATE change 101: PREPARING FOR A WARMING WORLD Table 3. Key Factors for Adaptive Capacity17 Factors Examples Economic resources Wealth of individuals and localities. Technology Localized climate and impact modeling to predict climate change and variability; efficient irrigation systems to reduce water demand. Information/awareness Species, sector, and geographic-based climate research; population education and awareness programs. Skills/human resources Training and skill development in sectors and populations; knowledge-sharing tools and support. Natural resources Abundant levels of varied and resilient natural resources that can recover from climate change impacts; healthy and inter-connected ecosystems that support migration patterns, species development and sustainability. Infrastructure Systems that provide sufficient protection and enable efficient response (e.g., wireless communication, health systems, air-conditioned shelter). Institutional support/governance Governmental and non-governmental policies and resources to support climate change adaptation measures locally and nationally.

changes? For instance, will the impacts be irrevers- Set priorities for action based on projected and observed im- ible (such as death, species extinction or ecosystem pacts. For vulnerable systems, prioritizing adaptive measures loss)? What other substantial impacts can be expected based on the nature of the projected or observed impacts is vi- (such as extensive property damage or food or water tal. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published shortages)? a list of criteria to aid in identifying key vulnerabilities. Some • Adaptive Capacity: To what extent can the system adapt of these criteria include: to plausible scenarios of climate change and/or cope with projected impacts?18 What is feasible in terms • Magnitude: Impacts are of large scale (high number of of repair, relocation, or restoration of the system? Can people or species affected) and/or high-intensity (cata- the system be made less vulnerable or more resilient? strophic degree of damage caused such as loss of life, loss of biodiversity). Involve all key stakeholders. Successful adaptation planning • Timing: Impacts are expected in the short term and/or are relies on input from, and the alignment of, all key stakehold- unavoidable in the long term if not addressed. Consider also ers. This means broadening the participants involved in identi- those impacts with variable and unpredictable timing. fying problems and solutions. Because the impacts of climate • Persistence/Reversibility: Impacts result in persistent dam- change span entire regions, adaptation planning should involve age (e.g., near permanent water shortage) or irreversible representatives from federal, state, and local government; sci- damage (e.g., disintegration of major ice sheets, species ence and academia; the private sector (see Box 1: Industry extinction). Adaptation Planning); and local communities. Successful • Likelihood/Certainty: Projected impacts or outcomes are planning will require creativity, compromise, and collabora- likely, with a high degree of confidence (e.g., damage or tion across agencies, sectors, and traditional geographic and harm that is clearly caused by rising temperatures or sea- jurisdictional boundaries. It also requires the involvement of level). The higher the likelihood, the more urgent the need experts who can help participants understand historical and for adaptation. current climate and other trends affecting various sectors, and • Importance: Systems at risk are of great importance or who can provide completed impact assessments for other loca- value to society, such as a city or a major cultural or natu- tions with similar sectors and/or projected impacts.19 ral resource.

Climate change 101: PREPARING FOR A WARMING WORLD 5 • Equity: The poor and vulnerable will likely be hurt the most that are already vulnerable or of urgent concern for other by climate change, and are the least likely to be able to reasons.20 adapt. Pay special attention to those systems that lack the • Profit/opportunity: Actions that capitalize on observed or capacity and resources to adapt. projected climatic changes. Example: a farmer is able to shift to different crops that are better suited to changing Choose adaptation options based on a careful assessment of climatic conditions. efficacy, risks, and costs. Due to uncertainties in projected • “Win-win”: Actions that provide adaptation benefits climate changes and in how systems will respond to those while meeting other social, environmental, or economic changes, adaptation options carry varying degrees of uncer- objectives, including climate change mitigation. tainty, or risk, as well. Timing, priority setting, economic and Example: improving the cooling capacity of buildings political costs, availability of resources and skills, and the through improved shading or other low-energy cooling efficacy of various solutions all should be a part of the discus- solutions.21 sion. The range of options includes but is not limited to: • Low-regret: Measures with relatively low costs for which benefits under climate change scenarios are high.22,23 • No-regret: Actions that make sense or are worthwhile Example: incorporating climate change into forestry, regardless of additional or exacerbated impacts from water, and other public land management practices and climate change. Example: protecting/restoring systems policies, or long-term capital investment planning.

Box 1. Industry Adaptation Planning

To date, business action on climate change has primarily focused on managing the risks and opportunities associated with emerging regulations and changing market demands. But as recognition grows that some climate impacts are already occurring, and many more are likely inevitable, companies are beginning to develop adaptation plans to comple- ment existing climate strategies.

Many of the projected impacts of climate change, such as sea level rise, increased incidence and severity of extreme weather events, and prolonged heat waves and droughts, could have serious consequences for businesses. Disruptions may include: damage to core operations, such as factories and office buildings; diminished quality and quantity of key inputs, such as water resources and forestry products; restricted access to the broader supply and demand infrastructure, such as electric utilities and transport networks; and sudden (or gradual) changes in demand for products and services.

Specific impacts will likely vary by sector. For example, higher demand for air conditioning during prolonged heat waves could stress and possibly overwhelm the electric grid. Longer and more intense rains could restrict access to construc- tion sites and slow productivity in the buildings sector. Meanwhile, the agriculture industry is at risk of extreme drought that could render large swaths of previously arable land unusable.

Companies are beginning to recognize and act on these risks. Entergy, the New Orleans-based utility, which suffered $2 billion in losses from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, has begun relocating important business operations to areas less vulnerable to severe weather events. Mining giant Rio Tinto is using high-resolution climate modeling to conduct detailed site assessments and gauge risks to high-priority assets. Additionally, Travelers, a major insurance company, is exploring new pricing strategies to encourage adaptive actions from its commercial and personal customers.

For more information on business approaches to adaptation, see Frances Sussman and J. Randall Freed. Forthcoming. Adapting to Climate Change: A Business Approach. Pew Center on Global Climate Change: Arlington, VA.

6 CLIMATE change 101: PREPARING FOR A WARMING WORLD • Avoiding unsustainable investments: Policies or other mea- mitigation; recommending that comprehensive state adap- sures that prevent new investment in areas already at tation plans be created. Six other states have already start- high risk from current climatic events, where climate ed their adaptation planning efforts, in parallel with their change is projected to exacerbate the impacts.24 Exam- mitigation activities; these states include Alaska, California, ple: prohibiting new development in flood-prone areas Florida, Maryland, Oregon and Washington (see Figure 3). where sea-level rise is increasing and protective measures are not cost effective. In California, political leaders recognize that climate change • Averting catastrophic risk: Policies or measures intended is having a wide range of impacts on the state’s natural to avert potential or eventual catastrophic events—i.e., resources, ecosystems, infrastructure, health systems events so severe or intolerable that they require action and economy. In June 2005, California Governor Arnold in advance based on available risk assessment informa- Schwarzenegger signed an executive order calling for bian- tion. Example: relocating Alaskan villages in areas at or nual updates on global warming impacts facing California, near sea-level with projected sea-level rise and increas- as well as adaptation plans to address these impacts. As cli- ing severe weather events. mate change continues and accelerates, it will strain these and other sectors further—bringing hotter, drier summers; U.S. States and Cities Are Beginning increased risk of drought and wildfires; and expanded water Adaptation Efforts resource needs. Through the California Energy Commission’s Comprehensive, proactive adaptation planning is still in the Public Interest Energy Research program (PIER), research early stages in the United States. As of January 2008, more is under way to identify effective adaptation methods for than 20 bills had been introduced in Congress that addressed agriculture, water resources and supply management, forest some aspect of adaptation. Many of the bills address mitigat- resources and wildfire management, and public health.25 ing impacts to fish and wildlife, natural resources, oceans or marine life. Others provide research or support to states As climate adaptation gains greater attention and resources, on vital issues such as water resources or coastal impacts. states will have much to learn from each other, as well as from A number call for both national and regional adaptation cost other countries and localities where adaptation is already assessments. One bill focuses on potential conflicts over occurring. Additional resources to assist states and localities resources and environmental refugee concerns stemming from are available at the end of this brief (see Box 3: Adaptation climate change. Taken together, these bills address many key Planning Resources for U.S. State and Local Action). adaptation challenges; increasing recognition of the need for a comprehensive approach to identifying or assessing at-risk Local Actions. Hundreds of cities have created climate action systems, and the need to address the scope of funding and plans, with more cities completing their plans every week. responsibility that will be required at both national and state Although most plans are principally focused on achiev- levels to prepare for the full breadth of climate change. In ing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, communities the absence of current federal legislation on adaptation, and across the United States are already taking action to ad- recognizing the importance of state and local action, states dress specific climate impacts. These city actions include: and localities are beginning to plan and act to address the desalinating freshwater sources; protecting infrastructure unavoidable impacts that will occur in the decades to come. and communities from flooding, erosion and more severe weather events; and preparing for more severe water short- State Actions. State governments are recognizing the need ages and droughts. These initiatives and others may be pri- for broad-scale adaptation planning, and have started tak- vately funded or managed, or they may be the responsibility ing steps toward this goal. Five states—Arizona, Colorado, of municipal, emergency response or other agencies. Cur- North Carolina, Utah and Vermont—acknowledge adaptation rently, there is no formal process for sharing information within their climate action plans addressing greenhouse gas across jurisdictions about their adaptation activities.

Climate change 101: PREPARING FOR A WARMING WORLD 7 Figure 3 State-level Adaptation Planning

State Adaptation Plans in-progress

Adaptation Plan recommended in Climate Action Plans

Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change. 2007. “Adaptation: What States and Localities are Doing.”

In addition to addressing specific impacts now, more locali- An adaptation planning leader in the United States is ties are recognizing the need for comprehensive adaptation King County, Washington, home to the city of Seattle. In planning. For example, Seattle’s climate action plan calls 2006, this county formed its own inter-departmental cli- for an inter-departmental team to prioritize climate change- mate change adaptation team, building scientific expertise related issues and to make recommendations on adaptive within county departments to ensure that climate change measures and timing. The plan calls for the evaluation of factors were considered in policy, planning, and capital impacts in several areas, including: sea-level rise, storm investment decisions. The county has considered climate in water management, urban forestry, building codes, and the development of emergency response plans, water sup- heat waves. At the same time, Seattle already is engaged in ply planning processes, and all county plans (e.g., river and water-supply planning based on projected climate change floodplain management plans). Most recently, King County impacts. In April 2007, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and the University of Washington’s Climate Impact Group released his PLANYC: A Greener, Greater New York. In this co-authored a guidebook, Preparing for Climate Change: A plan, the mayor addresses adaptation, recognizing that the Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments, in results of climate modeling indicate that New York faces association with the International Council for Local Environ- significant economic and human health risks from storm mental Initiatives: Local Governments for Sustainability.26 surges, hurricanes and flooding, in addition to heat waves, wind storms and water contamination. While adaptation The Federal Role actions are already being taken to protect the city’s water Much investment is needed to help state and local governments, supply and sewage and wastewater treatment systems, in municipalities, private businesses, and individuals manage the PLANYC, the Mayor calls for the city to conduct adaptation impacts of climate change. At the moment, resources are lack- planning to protect critical infrastructure and specific coming for adaptation planning and related activities, even though munities at high risk from climate change. The plan also proactive approaches to reducing risks and limiting impacts calls for an overall adaptation planning process. can result in significant cost savings in the decades ahead, while protecting critical systems and human life.

8 CLIMATE change 101: PREPARING FOR A WARMING WORLD Box 2. Adaptation: A Global Perspective

Adaptation to climate change is a challenge for all countries. Some other industrialized countries, such as the United Kingdom, Netherlands, Germany, Australia, and Canada, are ahead of the United States in planning for climate change impacts, and their experiences provide valuable lessons for U.S. policymakers (see Box 3: Adaptation Planning Resources for State and Local Action at the end of this brief).

From a global perspective, the adaptation challenge is probably greatest for developing countries. They are generally more vulnerable to climate change by virtue of being at lower latitudes, where impacts such as increased disease and extreme heat and drought will be more pronounced, and because their economies are more dependent on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fishing, and tourism. What’s more, with lower per capita incomes, weaker institutions, and limited access to technology, developing countries have less adaptive capacity.

In the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the United States and other developed countries committed generally to help “particularly vulnerable” countries adapt to climate change. In coming decades, adaptation in developing countries is estimated to require tens of billions of dollars annually.27 To date, $279 million in multilateral support has been pledged. Additional funds are now being generated through a levy on emissions credits generated through the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Under the Bali Roadmap, which launched talks on a post-2012 international climate agree- ment, stronger adaptation support is one of the core issues to be negotiated.

Effective international support will likely require stronger efforts both within and outside the UN climate change regime. Within the regime, options include support for comprehensive national adaptation strategies and for implementation of high-priority projects. Other support can be provided through multilateral and bilateral assistance programs to better integrate climate adaptation into the development process.

For more information on international adaptation, see Burton, I., Diringer, E., Smith, J. Adaptation to Climate Change: International Policy Options. The Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington, VA, November 2006.

Just as the federal government must act to reduce U.S. • Require climate change adaptation screening in Environ- emissions and take other steps to mitigate climate change, mental Impact Assessments. it must also take action on adaptation. Although not an • Update Federal Emergency Preparedness Plans to include exhaustive list, ways in which the federal government can potential climate change impacts and set guidelines for enable efficient and effective adaptation strategies across state preparedness plans. the U.S. include: • Review and update federal agency regulations and procedures where climate change impacts and adapta- Intellectual leadership, research and development tion are relevant, such as in the Departments of Interior • Provide ongoing climate science research, with a focus on and Agriculture, EPA and FEMA. impacts, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. • Provide improved modeling to project climatic changes at Coordination smaller scales and better forecast state and local impacts. • Support coordination and collaboration among state and local agencies, governments, and private-sector enti- Policy and regulation ties, particularly for cross-state or cross-jurisdictional • Require states to include climate change impact projec- impacts and adaptation plans (e.g., integrated or consis- tions in infrastructure projects requesting federal funding. tent response plans, interstate stakeholder agreements, species or resource management).

Climate change 101: PREPARING FOR A WARMING WORLD 9 • Develop policies to mitigate interstate impact and adapta- Funding tion issues. • Provide additional resources to states and localities lack- • Help ensure efficiency in adaptation resource planning ing sufficient funding for proactive adaptation planning, in and implementation. order to avert more costly reactive responses in the future. • Provide support for updated impact assessments at state Sharing of best practices and regional levels. • Acquire knowledge from nations that are ahead in adapta- • Provide bilateral and multilateral assistance for adaptation planning and action. tion planning and measures in developing countries. • Leverage knowledge, skills, resources, and technologies that are available in other countries to help state and local govern- Federal Lands ments efficiently implement solutions as cost-effectively as • Consider the impacts of climate change on federal landhold- possible (See Box 2: Adaptation—A Global Perspective). ings (e.g., National Parks, Forest Service, Bureau of Land • Support cataloguing of state and global solutions and Management lands) and infrastructure (e.g., naval facilities). other forms of knowledge sharing, and oversee nationwide communication and information systems for efficient dis- Preparing for the Future semination of knowledge across locales and jurisdictions. While governments at all levels must begin acting to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, some degree of climate change Models and planning tools is already inevitable. Climatic changes are happening now • Provide affordable modeling and adaptation planning and are projected to increase in both frequency and severity tools to states, municipalities, private sector entities, and before the benefits of emission reductions will be realized. communities without sufficient funding, to help identify Although mitigation is critical in addressing climate change, sectors at risk and assess vulnerable systems. the need for both adaptation planning and action is also critical. The federal, state, and local governments, as well Education and awareness as resource managers, industry, and community leaders, all • Help citizens, communities, and industries understand the have a role to play in assessing the climate vulnerability of risks of climate change impacts and their role in local and both natural and man-made systems, and taking action to regional adaptation efforts, incorporate climate change help these systems adapt. Citizens and public and private adaptation into their way of operating, and increase par- entities can all contribute toward a common goal of averting ticipation and support for necessary actions. dangerous climate risk and adequately preparing for those • Fund education, training, and awareness programs to changes that are already unavoidable. ensure citizens are fully informed and participating in viable adaptation solutions.

Additional Adaptation reports available from the Pew Center Adaptation to Climate Change: International Policy Options on Global Climate Change (www.pewclimate.org) include: (2006)—This report examines options for future international efforts to help vulnerable countries adapt to the impacts of cli- Coping with Climate Change—The Role of Adaptation in mate change both within and outside the climate framework. the United States (2004)—This report provides an in-depth analysis of the need for adaptation action and strategies in Adaptation—What U.S. States and Localities are Doing the United States, with implications and recommendations (2007)—This report provides an account of states and localities for both natural and man-made systems. that have begun adaptation planning, as well as a state level inventory of adaptation planning in state climate action plans.

10 CLIMATE change 101: PREPARING FOR A WARMING WORLD Box 3. Adaptation Planning Resources for U.S. State and Local Action

U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP): The Climate Change Science Program integrates federal research on climate and global change from agencies such as the Departments of Agriculture, Energy, Interior, and Transportation. Two CCSP adaptation reports currently available for review include: • The Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure—This study looks at how climate change could affect roads, airports, rail, transit systems, pipelines, ports, and waterways for a region of the U.S. Central Gulf Coast, and ways to support transportation planning processes. http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/ sap/sap4-7/sap4-7-draft3.pdf • Synthesis Assessment Product 4.4: Adaptation for Climate Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources focuses on federally owned and managed lands and water, including national parks, forests, wildlife refuges, rivers, estuaries and marine protected areas. This report provides resource managers with adaptation options and processes for identifying vulnerabilities, and offers recommendations for federal roles and policies. http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-4/ public-review-draft/default.htm

The Convention on Biological Diversity: The Convention has created an Adaptation Planning Database and links to scientific studies and other resources, specifically for biodiversity-related climate change adaptation. The database includes data for: identifying vulnerable systems, assessing threats and impacts, identifying and evaluating options, and implementing adaptive measures. http://adaptation.cbd.int/

Eldis—Community-Based Adaptation Exchange Program: Eldis is a global services organization specializing in adaptation services in high-risk countries. It offers a database of donors, implementing agencies, academia, and policy organizations involved in adaptation. http://www.cba-exchange.org

ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability: ICLEI is a global services organization specializing in both mitigation and adaptation support to local governments in the U.S. and globally. Through their Sustainable Cities program, ICLEI works with local governments to build resiliency to climate impacts. http://www.iclei.org

Queensland Climate Change Center of Excellence (QCCCE): Based in Australia, the QCCCE is a new unit within the state’s Office of Climate Change, providing policy advice, information, and scientific data on climate change and impacts. ClimateSmart Adaptation 2007-12 (put title in italics) is the government’s action plan to increase resilience to climate change impacts in key sectors including: water planning, agriculture, emergency services, human health, tourism, finance, and insurance. http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/

University of Washington’s Center for Science in the Earth System, Climate Impacts Group (CIG): CIG is an interdisciplinary research group studying the impacts of natural climate variability and global climate change on the U.S. Pacific North- west. Its research focuses on four key sectors: water resources, aquatic ecosystems, forests, and coasts. CIG performs fundamental research on climate impacts and works with planners and policy makers to apply this information to regional decision-making processes. http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/

UK Climate Impact Program (UKCIP): UKCIP provides tools and data to support climate change risk assessments and develop adaptation strategies. The program offers climate change and socio-economic scenarios, a framework for making decisions in the face of climate risk and uncertainty, and a methodology for costing the impacts of climate change. Although specific to the United Kingdom, UKCIP’s tools and databases of climate change adaptation case studies and adaptation options are relevant and useful for the U.S. http://www.ukcip.org.uk/

USAID: Through their Global Climate Change Program, USAID helps developing countries and countries in transition address climate-related concerns. In 2007, USAID published a guidance manual for development planning, Adapting to Climate Variability and Change. This manual provides guidance on how to assess vulnerability to climate variability and change, as well as how to design or adapt projects so that they are more resilient to a range of climatic conditions. Specific cases on water, flood, and agricultural management impacts and adaptation options are included. http://www.usaid.gov/ our_work/environment/climate/docs/reports/cc_vamanual.pdf

Climate change 101: PREPARING FOR A WARMING WORLD 11 Endnotes

1. IPCC. 2007. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 14. Stroeve, J., et al. 2007. “Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than fore- 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group cast.” Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 34, L09501, doi: I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel 10.1029/2007GL029703. on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp. 15. Easterling, W., et al. 2004. op cit.

2. Wigley, T.M.L. 1999. The Pew Center on Global Climate Change. 16. Ibid. The Science of Climate Change: Global and U.S. Perspectives. 17. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vul- 3. IPCC. 2007. Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change nerability. op cit. 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 18. C. West and M. Gawaith. 2005. UK Climate Impacts Programme. I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel “Measuring Progress: Preparing for climate change through the on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK Climate Impacts Programme.” UKCIP Technical Report. United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 19. Center for Science in the Earth System. 2007. op cit. 4. State of Alaska, Alaska Climate Change Strategy. Joint Alaska Cli- mate Impact Assessment. http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/ 20. UKCIP. 2007. UKCIP Adaptation Tools, Identifying Adaptation cc-ak.htm. Options. http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/tools/adaptation options.asp. 5. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assess- 21. UKCIP. 2007. op cit. ment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, UK, 976pp. 22. Ibid.

6. Ibid. 23. Smith, J. 1997. “Setting priorities for adapting to climate change.” Global Environmental Change, Vol 7, No 3, p251-264. 7. Ibid. 24. Easterling, W., et al. 2004. op cit. 8. Ebi, K. Meehl, G., Bachelet, D., et al. 2007. Regional Impacts of Climate Change: Four Case Studies in the United States. The Pew 25. California Energy Commission. 2008 California Climate Change Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington Virginia. Center. “Research: Impacts and Adaptation Studies.” http://www. climatechange.ca.gov/research/impact.html. 9. Easterling, W., Hurd, B., Smith, J. 2004. Coping with Global Cli- mate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the United States. The 26. Center for Science in the Earth System. 2007. op cit. Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington, Virginia. 27. Three recent estimates for adaptation financing required by 10. Center for Science in the Earth System at the University of Wash- developing countries are available at: ington, King County, Washington. 2007. Preparing for Climate Watkins, K., et al. 2007. United Nations Development Pro- Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional and State Governments. gramme. Human Development Report 2007/2008. http://hdr. undp.org/en/UNFCCC. 2007. Investment and Financial Flows to 11. Convention on Biological Diversity. 2008. Climate Change Adap- Address Climate Change. http://unfccc.int/cooperation_and_ tation Database, Adaptation Planning: Assessing Threats and support/financial_mechanism/items/4053.php Impacts. http://adaptation.cbd.int/threats.shtml#sec1. World Bank and International Monetary Fund. 2006. Clean 12. Engelhaupt, E. 2007. “Models underestimate global warming Energy and Development: Towards and Investment Framework. impacts.” Environmental Science & Technology, 41, 4488-4489. DC2006-0002. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DEVCOMMINT/ Documentation/20890696/DC2006-0002(E)-CleanEnergy.pdf 13. Rahmstorf, S., et al. 2007. “Recent Climate Observations Com- pared to Projections.” Science, Vol 316, 709.

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