D A Annual T A L A B commissariat général au développement durable Key figures on climate France and Worldwide 2017 EDITION Key figures on climate summary France and Worldwide
03 - Part 1: What is climate change? This part summarizes the scientific basis of climate change, including indicators, causes and possible consequences of global warming.
19 - Part 2: Which amounts of greenhouse gases are emitted globally? The focus here is on the most relevant data related to global greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, in particular the geographic distribution of these emissions.
31 - Part 3: How much greenhouse gas is emitted in Europe and in France? A complete overview of GHG emissions statistics in Europe and in France is presented in this part as well as estimates of the carbon footprint of French people.
39 - Part 4: What is the sectoral distribution of GHG emissions in Europe and in France? This part features the detailed evolution since 1990 of GHG emissions in the following economic sectors: energy sector, transports, industry, residential and tertiary, agriculture, forestry, land use and waste management.
51 - Part 5: Which climate policies in the world, in Europe and in France? The main climate policies are described at each level: global, European and French.
Document edited by: Service de l’Observation et des Statistiques (SOeS)
02 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide authors MB
Manuel Baude Meem-CGDD-SOeS manuel.baude@ developpement-durable.gouv.fr
FXD ME François-Xavier Dussud Mathieu Ecoiffier Meem-CGDD-SOeS Meem-CGDD-SOeS francois-xavier.dussud@ mathieu.ecoiffier@ developpement-durable.gouv.fr developpement-durable.gouv.fr
JD CV
Jérome Duvernoy Charlotte Vailles Meem-DGEC-ONERC I4CE-Institute for Climate Economics jerome.duvernoy@ developpement-durable.gouv.fr [email protected]
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 01 Foreword
n line with previous years, the 2017 edition of “Key figures on climate” has been written in the context of the 22nd I Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP 22) held in Marrakech from 7 to 18 November 2016. This latest version, published as part of the new “datalab” collection of the General commission for sustainable development was updated and expanded relative to the 2016 edition. New data sources have been used for the part on global CO2 emissions. The part on climate policies was further developed, and notably deals with the Paris agreement adopted in December 2015 at COP 21. Moreover, the analysis of climate finance (current climate investments and climate finance needs) has been expanded. About the form, and with a goal of simplification, some data previously displayed in both a graph and a table is now presented only in a graph. Data tables are still available on the web version.
—Sylvain Moreau HEAD OF DEPARTMENT, SOES
02 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 1 What is climate change?
— The concept of global warming refers to a sustainable increase of the planet average temperature. Additionally to the average sea level which has increased by more than 15 cm since 1900, numerous other indicators illustrate this warming. The conclusions of the scientific community and notably of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) meet general consensus on the causes of climate change. The natural climate balance is disrupted by anthropogenic GHG emissions. The CO2 atmospheric concentration – the main GHG – has increased by more than 40 % since 1750. Projections show that global warming could have a severe impact on sea levels and crop yields in the future.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 03 part 1: Climate change
Climate change observations
GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2 1950
°C 1850 1900 2000 –0.2
–0.4
–0.6
–0.8
NOAA MLOST NASA GISS HadCRUT4 Ten-year average for the three data series Source: NOAA , NASA, Hadley Center
The increase in global average temperatures is very clear. The difference from the 1961-1990 reference period is far below zero until 1940, mostly negative until 1980, then the warming becomes more acute and the difference has almost al- ways been positive since the early 1980’s. The decade 2001-2010 was 0.21°C warmer than the decade 1991-2000 and was 0.48°C warmer than the 1961-1990 average. The year 2015, with an average temperature 0.74° over the 1961-1990 average, ranks first among the hottest years since 1850.
04 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 1: Climate change
GLOBAL AVERAGE SEA LEVEL CHANGE COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE PERIOD 1900-1905 200 Church and White (2011) 150 Jevrejeva et al. (2008) Ray and Douglas (2011) Nerem et al. (2010) Satellite measurements 100 Uncertainty mm 50
0
–50 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010 Source: IPCC, Working Group I, 2013 The global average sea level rose by 1.7 ± 0.3 mm/yr over the period 1901-2010. The rise has been greater in recent decades, reaching 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/yr over the period 1993-2010 (satellite data). GLACIERS MELTING 1.6 Greenland Antarctica Greenland & Antarctica 1.2
0.8
0.4 SLE per year (mm/yr) 0
–0.4 1992-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011 Time period Source: IPCC, Working Group I, 2013 Over the last two decades from 1992 to 2011, the total loss of continental polar ice is equivalent to a sea level rise of about 11.7 mm (8.4 to 15.1 mm). The most significant losses were observed over the last decade (2002-2012).
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 05 part 1: Climate change
EVOLUTION OF THE AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE IN FRANCE
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5 °C
0
–0.5
–1.0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
–1;5
Deviation from the average Eleven-year moving average temperature reference from year Y–5 to year Y+5
Source: Météo-France
As worldwide, the average temperature change in metropolitan France has shown a clear warming since 1900. The speed of this warming has been variable with a particularly pronounced increase since 1980. Over the period 1959-2009, the observed trend is roughly +0.3°C per decade. In France, 2004, 2011 and 2015 were the warmest years on record since 1990.
06 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 1: Climate change
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
A weather event (tornadoes, hurricanes, heat waves, heavy rainfalls) is clas- sified as extreme when it significantly exceeds reference levels. Climate change modifies the frequency, intensity, scale, duration and time of occur- rence of extreme events. It can push the characteristics of these events to unprecedented levels.
Heat waves in France - 1947-2014 period 32 2-19 august 2003 31 15-21 july 1964 15 - 21 august 2012 9-15 july 2003 30 31 july - 29 june - 7 july 1952 5 august 1990 10-30 july 2006 29 8-12 august 1998 30 july - 8 august 1975 9-31 july 1983 28 19-21 july 1995 23 july - 6-8 august 1992 4 august 1947 27 18-28 june 2005
in Metropolitan France (°C) in Metropolitan 15-27 26 july 2013 15-24 july 2014 Daily maximum temperatures averaged Daily maximum temperatures 25 26-28 june 1947 29 june-7 july 1957 13-20 august 1947 22 june - 21-25 july 1989 6 august 1976 22 july - 9 august 1994 24 0 5 10 15 20 25 Duration (days)
1947-1980: 7 events 1981-2014: 15 events
Note : The surface of each circle represents the intensity of the heat wave, which depends on its duration and its maximum temperature Source: Météo-France At the French national level, the heat waves recorded since 1947 were twice as many over the last 34 years than over the previous period. This trend is also shaped by the occurrence of more severe events (duration, intensity overall) in recent years. Thus, the 4 longest heat waves and 3 among the 4 most intense waves occurred after 1981. The heat wave observed in France from 2 to 9 August 2003 is by far the most significant event over the observation period.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 07 part 1: Climate change
CHANGE IN GRAPE HARVEST DATES
21 oct. Tavel 16 oct.
11 oct. St-Émilion
6 oct.
1st oct. Alsace
26 sep. Champagne 21 sep.
16 sep. Chateauneuf du Pape 11 sep.
6 sep.
1st sep. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Sources: Inter-Rhône, ENITA Bordeaux, Inra, CICV, Inter-Rhône
Whatever the grape variety or the region, the wine harvest takes place at least two weeks earlier now than in 1988. If the overall decline in harvest dates is significant and fairly regular, inter-annual variations remain nevertheless impor- tant. Thus this indicator illustrates the two aspects of climate variability: Short- term climate fluctuation (on a yearly basis) and long-term climate change (on a decade basis).It should however be noted that even if the whole 2014 year was in France the warmest year since at least 1900, this year is not exceptional for the wine because July and August temperatures were not particularly high.
08 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 1: Climate change
Climate change causes
NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND ITS PERTURBATIONS BY HUMAN ACTIVITIES
Solar radiation 2 340 Current energy flows in W/m
100 76 Reflected Radiation 239 Outgoing Radiation Radiation Absorbed by the Atmosphere 79 Interactions aerosols / clouds Chemical Reactions
GHG and Aerosols Chemical Clouds Ozone Large Reactions Aerosols
185 Latent Heat Reflected Radiation 84 Emission of Gases 24 342 and Aerosols Ice / 398 Snow Cover Radiation 161 Emitted from Surface Radiation Absorbed 20 by the Surface Sensible Heat Vegetation Surface Albedo Changes Ocean Color Changes
Net Absorption 0.6
Sunlight provides the earth with energy. Part of this energy is directly or indirectly reflected back towards space, while the majority is absorbed by the atmosphere or by the earth’s surface. The relatively warm temperatures at the earth’s surface are due to GHGs that reradiate most of the surface radiation back to the earth. Source: IPCC, Working group I, 2013
Higher anthropogenic GHG emissions in the atmosphere increase the amount of energy reradiated to the earth. This results in an imbalance in the system, which causes the rise of the global temperatures. A change in radiation caused by a substance, compared to a reference year, is called radiative forcing. A positive radiative forcing value indicates a positive contribution to global warming. The total anthropogenic radiative forcing was + 2.55 ± 1.1 W/m2 in 2013 compared to 1750.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 09 part 1: Climate change
GREENHOUSE GASES (GHGS) Water vapor excepted, GHGs make up less of 0.1% of the atmosphere. Water vapor, whose concentration in the atmosphere varies between 0.4% and 4% in volume, is the main GHG. Anthropogenic activities have little impact on the variations of its concentration but they have a strong impact on the concentration of other GHGs.
CO2 CH4 N2O HFC PFC SF6 NF3 Atmospheric concentration 397 ppm 1,823 ppb 327 ppb >157 ppt >6.5 ppt 8.2 ppt 2014 (in 2005 <1 ppt (379 ppm) (1,774 ppb) (319 ppb) (>49 ppt) (>4.1 ppt) (5.6 ppt) between brackets) Global Warming potential (total [1.4; [6,630; 1 28-30 265 23,500 16,100 over 100 14,800] 11,100] years) Fossil fuels Landfills, Agriculture, combustion, agriculture, industrial Manufacture Anthropogenic industrial livestock Aerosols, refrigeration, processes, of electronic sources processes and aluminium smelting use of components and tropical industrial fertilizer deforestation processes Change in radiative forcing due to anthropogenic emissions in +1.91 +0.50 +0.19 +0.12 2014 since (+1.66) (+0.48) (+0.16) (+0.09) 1750 (W/m²) (in 2005 between brackets) ppm = parts per million, ppb = parts per billion, ppt = parts per trillion. Source: IPCC, Working Group I, 2013, NOAA (2016), Agage (2016)
Global warming potential (GWP) is the ratio between the amount of energy reradiated to the earth by 1 kg of a gas over 100 years and the amount that 1 kg of CO2 would reradiate. It depends on the gases’ concentrations and lifetimes. For example, 1 kg of CH4 and between 28 and 30 kg of CO2 will warm up the atmosphere by the same amount over the century following their emission. While CO2 is the gas with the lowest global warming potential, it is also the one that has contributed the most to global warming since 1750, because the significant amounts emitted.
10 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 1: Climate change
CARBON STOCKS AND GHG FLOWS: SIMPLIFIED CO2 CYCLE IN THE 2,000’S
[ ] Atmosphere 2,160 + 880Land Use Volcanism Change <0.4 Cement and Soil Production
and Sequestration
Fossil Fuel Combustion 6.2 2.6 28.6 5.5 8.4
Ocean [142,000 Biosphere - 110] ] + 568 [13,000 – 17,000
including: Fossil fuel reserves- 1,375] [3,700 – 7,100 Gas [1,400 – 4,200] Sedimentation Oil [600 – 1,000] 0.7 Coal [1,600 – 2,000]
Source: based on IPCC, Working Group I, 2013 This graph shows: (i) in square brackets, the size of carbon stocks in pre-industrial times in billions of CO2 tonnes equivalent in black and their change over the period 1750-2011 in red; (ii) as arrows, carbon flows between the stocks in billions of CO2 tonnes equivalent per year. Pre-industrial flows are shown in black. Those from the development of anthropogenic activities between2000 and 2009 are shown in red. Four large reservoirs allow carbon to be stored in various forms: - Atmosphere: gaseous CO2; - Biosphere: organic matter from living things including forests; - Ocean: limestone, dissolved CO2; - Subsoil: rocks, sediment, fossil fuels. Carbon flows between these reservoirs make up the natural carbon cycle, which has been disrupted by anthropogenic emissions of CO2. The amounts exchanged have changed and new flows have been created, such as the combustion of fossil organic carbon stocks.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 11 part 1: Climate change
IMBALANCE BETWEEN EMISSIONS AND CO2 STORAGE CAPACITY
Net annual CO2 flows towards the atmosphere by source and reservoir over the period 2000-2009
35
30 Uncertainty 25
20
/ yr 15 2
Gt CO 10
Land Ocean 5 reservoirs reservoirs –9.5 –8.4 0 Fossil fuel Land use Net flows –5 combustion change to the and cement 4.0 atmosphere production 14.7 –10 28.6
–15
–20
Source: IPCC, Working Group I, 2013
In the 2000s, of the 32.6 Gt of CO2 annually released by human activities, the atmosphere absorbed 14.7, land reservoirs (biosphere and subsoil) 9.5 and the oceans 8.4. The atmosphere is the reservoir most affected by anthropogenic activities: the amount of carbon stored increased by nearly 40% compared to pre-industrial levels.
12 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 1: Climate change
ROLE OF FORESTS IN THE CO2 CYCLE Forests are the largest carbon reservoirs on land. They sequester 9.2 Gt of net CO2 emissions per year, the equivalent of 33% of global GHG emissions. Deforestation causes GHG emissions through the combustion and decom- position of organic matter. These gross emissions account for 11% of GHGs from anthropogenic sources (van der Werf et al., 2009, Nature Geoscience).
In France, the net carbon sequestration in forest biomass is estimated to be around 70 Mt CO2, or 15% of national fossil carbon emissions (Citepa, 2016).
ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION
parts per million - CO2 460
450 ppm = 440 Average level not to be 420 exceeded by 2100 400
380
360
340
320
300 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Source: CMDGS under the authority of the OMM
Since the development of industry, land and ocean reservoirs have absorbed half of anthropogenic emissions. The remaining emissions are still in the atmos- phere, leading to an increase in the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 13 part 1: Climate change
Scenarios and climate projections
PROJECTION OF EMISSIONS FROM FOSSIL FUELS ACCORDING TO THE IPCC’S FOUR REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION PATHWAYS (RCP)
30
Historical 25 RCP2.6 pathway RCP4.5 pathway 20 RCP6.0 pathway RCP8.5 pathway e
2 15
Gt CO 10
5
0
– 5 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year Source: IPCC, Working Group I, 2013
The IPCC published its First Assessment Report in 1990. Its fifth report (AR5) was published in its entirety end of 2014. For each publication, the IPCC communicates climate projections based on assumptions for the concentration of GHGs. For the AR5, four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) were defined: RCP2.6; RCP4.5; RCP6.0; RCP8.5, from the most optimistic to the most pes- simistic, named after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values (RCP8,5 corresponds to a situation with a radiative forcing of 8,5 W/m² in 2100.) These pathways correspond to more or less drastic efforts to reduce global GHG emissions. Climate simulations and socio-economic scenarios are drawn up from these projections.
14 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 1: Climate change
EVOLUTION OF TEMPERATURES AND SEA LEVELS IN THE IPCC’S CONCENTRATION PATHWAYS (RCPS)
Global average surface temperature change (relative to 1986–2005)
6.0 Mean over 2081-2100 Historical 4.0 RCP2.6 pathway RCP4.5 pathway RCP6.0 pathway RCP8.5 pathway
°C 2.0
0
–2.0 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: IPCC, Working Group I, 2013
Global mean sea level rise (relative to 1986–2005) 1.0 Mean over 2081-2100 RCP2.6 pathway 0.8 RCP4.5 pathway RCP6.0 pathway 0.6 RCP8.5 pathway (m)
0.4
0.2
0.0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Source: IPCC, Working Group I, 2013
Sea level rise is mainly caused by ocean thermal expansion and the melting of land-based ice (glaciers, polar ice caps…). Sea level rise will probably cause massive migration flows, as over one billion people live in low-lying coastal areas. Despite progress in recent years, ice melting forecast models still have wide margins of uncertainty.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 15 part 1: Climate change
CARBON BUDGETS AND TEMPERATURE RISE
Among the four IPCC’s concentration pathways, only the most ambitious, RCP2.6, has a probability higher than 50% to limit the temperature rise to 2°C in 2100. The most conservative pathway RCP 8.5 has more than 50% chance of leading to a temperature rise higher than 4°C.
Carbon budget for a 50% probability to limit temperature rise to a certain value
Cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1870 and… 1970 1990 2011
3
2
1.5 Temperature rise (°C) Temperature
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 Gt CO2 Note to read the graph: with a 50% probability, a 3°C temperature rise in 2100 implies the cumulative emission of less than 4,500 Gt CO2. Among GHGs, only CO2 is accounted for in the graph. Source: I4CE, based on IPCC, Working Groups, I and III, 2014
A carbon budget is the maximum amount of GHGs which can be emitted to avoid a temperature rise too important.
For example, IPCC’s simulations indicate that to have a probability higher than 50% to stay below a 2°C increase by 2100, cumulative anthropogenic emissions have to be lower than 3,000 Gt CO2. As between 1870 and 2011, human acti- vities already emitted 1,700 Gt CO2, the carbon budget consistent with a 2°C limit is then 1,300 Gt CO2 from 2011 until the end of the century. This carbon budget corresponds to around 30 years of 2014 emissions. The combustion of all current fossil fuel reserves would emit an amount of CO2 much higher (4 to 7 times) than the carbon budget consistent with the 2°C limit.
16 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 1: Climate change
CONSEQUENCES ON A GLOBAL SCALE
Summary of projected changes in crop yields due to climate change over the 21st century compared to the levels at the end of the 20th century 100 Range of yield change 80 50 to 100% Increase 25 to 50% in yield 10 to 25% 60 5 to 10% 0 to 5%
40 0 to –5% –5 to –10% Decrease –10 to –25% in yield 20 –25 to –50% –50 to –100% Percentage of yield projections Percentage 0 2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089 2090-2109 Source: IPCC, Working Group II, 2014 Climate change, without adaptation measures, is expected to have a negative impact on the main crop yields (wheat, rice, maize and soy) in tropical and tem- perate regions. The probability of a negative impact increases with time and the severity of the warming. After 2050, the decrease in the average crop yields is expected to go together with a gradual increase of the crop yields interannual variability in several regions. CONSEQUENCES FOR FRANCE
Number of additional days with abnormally high temperatures in the future (IPCC’s RCP 4.5, 2014) Short-term outlook Medium-term outlook Long-term outlook 2021-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100
NBJ – 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Source: Drias les futurs du climat, 2014
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 17 part 1: Climate change
In France, the number of additional days with abnormally high temperatures is expected to increase in the future, with possibly more than 100 additional days per year by 2100, according to the RCP4.5. The southern and eastern parts of France are expected to be the most exposed to these changes.
Schematic map of the potential impacts of climate change in metropolitan France by 2050 and beyond
ALL REGIONS: Warming more pronounced in summer and in the south- Flandres east quarter: Dunkerque Nord-Pas-de-Calais Lille - Sharp increase in the number of days Picardie of heat wave in summer
- Evaporation with reduced base flows Normandie Flandres Normandie SommeDunkerqueAmiens and water resources for agriculture Nord-Pas-de-Calais Le Havre Lille - Effects on crop yields Picardie Rouen - Shift in tourist attraction areas Reims Normandie Metz Normandie Somme Amiens Brest Paris Le Havre Strasbourg Nancy Rouen ReimsSeine Rennes LARGE CITIES: Metz - More intense heat waves with Brest OrléansParis Loire VOSGESStrasbourg Angers Mulhouse consequences on health and energy Nantes Nancy Seine consumption Rennes Tours Dijon Pays nantais - Increased risk of urban flooding: Orléans Besançon Loire VOSGES overflow of sewerage systems, flooding Angers Mulhouse Nantes JURA of underground infrastructure Vendée Centre-Atlantique Tours Dijon Pays nantais Besançon
JURA FORESTS: Lyon Vendée Centre-Atlantique Limoges - Risk of forest fires extended towards Clermont Saintonge Ferrand ALPES the north MASSIF CENTRAL Grenoble Bordeaux Limoges Lyon MOUNTAINS: Clermont Saintonge Ferrand ALPES MASSIF Rhône - Reduced surface area of ski slopes Garonne CENTRAL Grenoble - Increased natural hazards: debris flows Bordeaux in some mountain ranges Aquitaine NîmesRhône Garonne - Biodiversity: changes in species distribution Toulouse Flandres Nice COASTLINES:Dunkerque Aquitaine PACA Nord-Pas-de-Calais MontpellierNîmes - AccentuatedLille risk of erosion, submergence and Picardie ToulousePYRÉNÉES Camargue Marseille Toulon salinisation of aquifers due to rising sea levels PACA Nice Normandie - More frequent risk of pertial flooding of polders MontpellierLanguedoc- Normandie Somme Amiens Roussillon PYRÉNÉES Camargue Marseille Toulon Le Havre and barrier beaches Rouen - Ports and related industries at risk of coastal flooding Reims Languedoc- - Changes in the distribution ofMetz fisheries resources with Roussillon Brest northwardParis movement Strasbourg Corse Nancy
Seine Rennes Corse Orléans Loire VOSGES Angers Mulhouse Nantes
Tours Dijon Pays nantais Besançon
JURA Vendée Centre-Atlantique Source: I4CE, 2015, according to IPCC (2014), Meem (2014 et 2015), Onerc (2010) and Météo-France Lyon Limoges Clermont Saintonge Ferrand ALPES MASSIF 18 – CENTRALKey figures onGrenoble climate- France and Worldwide Bordeaux
Rhône Garonne
Aquitaine Nîmes Toulouse PACA Nice Montpellier PYRÉNÉES Camargue Marseille Toulon
Languedoc- Roussillon
Corse part 2 Which amounts of greenhouse gases are emitted globally?
— Anthropogenic GHG emissions reached 54 Gt CO2eq in 2013, with CO2 emissions accounting for around 73% of this total. Global CO2 emissions (excluding LULUCF) increased by more than 58% between 1990 and 2014, with trajectories very different depending on the countries. China, the biggest world emitter in 2014, is an unusual case with its emissions having increased fourfold since 1990. When it comes to per capita CO2 emissions, the situation is different. In countries such as the United States or Saudi Arabia, per capita emissions - more than 16 t CO2 per year - are among the highest, while France is around the world average with emissions per capita around 5 t CO2.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 19 part 2: Global GHG emissions
Global overview of GHG emissions
GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF GHG EMISSIONS (INCLUDING LULUCF) BY GAS IN 2010
Based on global warming potential at 20 years Based on global warming potential at 100 years
F-gases F-Gases PFC + HFC + SF6 PFC + HFC + SF6 N2O (2) N2O (2) (4) (5)
CH4 (20)
CH4 (42)
CO2 CO2 (52) (73)
Source: based on IPCC, Working Group III, 2014
CO2: Carbon dioxide; N2O: Nitrous oxide; CH4: Methane; HFC: Hydrofluorocarbons; PFC: Perfluorocarbons; SF6: Sulphur hexafluoride
The emissions of the six GHGs initially covered by the Kyoto Protocol have increased by 80% since 1970 and by 45% since 1990, reaching 54 Gt CO2e in 2013 and 49 Gt CO2e in 2010.
20 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 2: Global GHG emissions
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF GHG EMISSIONS PER CAPITA IN 2012 (INCLUDING LULUCF) 25 Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand 5.7% 20 Europe and former USSR excl. EU 8.2%
15
10
eq. / inhabitant Other Asia 2 and Oceania 6.9% 5 China 24.3% t CO India 5.7%
EU 28 8.9% Africa North America 13.9% Middle-East 4.6% Central and South America 10.9% 10.8% 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cumulative population (billions) Source: I4CE based on JRC EDGAR and World Bank, 2015 In 2012, average emissions per capita in North America are more than eight times higher than in India. Besides, these values does not reflect the disparity within a geographical area (for example, in Middle-East, emissions per capita are higher than 50 t CO2eq./inhabitant in Qatar, and lower than 2 t CO2eq./ inhabitant in Yemen), and within a country.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF GHG EMISSIONS PER UNIT OF GDP IN 2012 (INCLUDING LULUCF) 1.4
1.2 Europe and former USSR excl. EU 8.2% Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand 1.0 5.7% 0.8
0.6 Middle-East 4.6% eq. / USD 2005 PPA 2 0.4 China 24.3% North America Other Asia
0.2 Africa 10.8% EU 28 kg CO 13.9% Central and South America 10.9%
and Océania 6.9% 8.9% 0 India 5.7% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 Cumulated GDP (billions USD 2005 PPA) Source: I4CE based on JRC EDGAR and World Bank, 2015 In 2012, the carbon intensity of GDP is more than four times higher in Africa than in the EU, meaning that four times more GHGs are emitted per unit of economic output.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 21 part 2: Global GHG emissions
Global CO2 emissions excluding LULUCF
GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS BY FUEL
40,000
35,000 10%
30,000 18% Other
2 25,000 Gas combustion Mt CO 20,000 31%
15,000 Oil combustion
10,000 42% Coal combustion 5,000
0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Note: Emissions listed here are CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial processes. This corresponds to total CO2 emissions excluding LULUCF. They account for 85% of all global CO2 emissions and 65% of GHG emissions . Source: EDGAR, 2015
In 2014, global CO2 emissions excluding LULUCF amount to 35.7 billion tonnes. Close to 42% of those emissions are caused by coal combustion, 31% by oil combustion and 18% by natural gas combustion. Emissions related to industrial processes, such as cement production, represent 10% of the total.
22 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 2: Global GHG emissions
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY MIX
1971 (5,528 Mtoe) 2013 (13,553 Mtoe) in % in %
Coal: 26 Coal: 29 Oil: 44 Oil: 31 Natural gas: 16 Natural gas: 21 Nuclear: 1 Nuclear: 5 Renewable energies Renewable energies and waste: 13 and waste: 14
Source: IEA, september 2015
The distribution of emissions by fuels can be linked to the global primary energy mix. In 2013, fossil fuels (coal, natural gas and oil) account for 81% of the global total primary energy supply. Globally, between 1971 and 2013, the share of crude oil in this mix fell by 13 points, in favour of gas (+5 points), nuclear power (+4 points) and coal (+3 points). Accounting for a 29% share of the energy mix, coal was the second largest energy source after crude oil in 2013. Yet, it ranked first in terms of CO2 emissions as its emission factor is considerably higher than those of gas and oil (see page 74). As renewable energy generation has increased at a rate close to total generation, its share in the world energy mix has stayed stable in 40 years, around 14 %.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 23 part 2: Global GHG emissions
GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS (EXCL. LULUCF)
2014 share Change (%) Change (%) In Mt CO2 1990 2013 2014 (%) 2014/2013 2014/1990 North America 5,726 6,315 6,357 17.8 +0.7 +11.0 of which: Canada 448 565 566 1.6 +0.2 +26.2 USA 4,988 5,286 5,335 15.0 +0.9 +6.9 Central and South America 647 1,291 1,306 3.7 +1.1 +101.8 of which: Brazil 217 485 501 1.4 +3.3 +130.5 Europe and former USSR 8,353 6,403 6,142 17.2 –4.1 –26.5 of which: Russia 2,379 1,792 1,766 5.0 –1.4 –25.7 EU-28 4,345 3,608 3,415 9.6 –5.4 –21.4 of which: EU-15 3,282 2,888 2,711 7.6 –6.1 –17.4 Germany 1,008 813 767 2.2 –5.6 –23.9 Spain 227 244 242 0.7 –1.0 +6.5 France 387 353 324 0.9 –8.3 –16.3 Italy 424 366 338 0.9 –7.6 –20.4 United Kingdom 579 456 415 1.2 –8.9 –28.3 13 new EU members 1,063 720 704 2.0 –2.3 –33.8 Africa 667 1,162 1,188 3.3 +2.3 +78.1 Middle East 814 2,193 2,272 6.4 +3.6 +179.1 of which Saudi Arabia 168 463 495 1.4 +7.0 +194.3 Asia 5,378 16,543 16,833 47.2 +1.8 +213.0 of which: China 2,411 10,448 10,541 29.6 +0.9 +337.1 South Korea 268 609 610 1.7 +0.2 +127.6 India 652 2,172 2,342 6.6 +7.8 +258.9 Japan 1,170 1,217 1,235 3.5 +1.5 +5.6 Oceania 304 461 454 1.3 –1.6 +49.4 Annex I countries 14,894 13,937 13,666 38.3 –1.9 –8.2 Non-Annex I countries 6,995 20,431 20,886 58.6 +2.2 +198.6 International bunkers 626 1,109 1,117 3.1 +0.7 +78.2 World 22,516 35,477 35,669 100.0 +0.5 +58.4 Note: International bunkers are emissions from international aviation and shipping. They have been excluded from national totals. Sources: SOeS from EDGAR, World Bank, 2015
In 2014, global CO2 emissions (excluding LULUCF) slightly increased by 0.5%, well below the average yearly increase since 2000 (+2.5%). There is a clear difference between developing countries (here non-Annex I countries) where emissions grew by 2.2% and developed countries where emissions decreased by 1.9%. In 2014, for the first time, India is the country contributing the most to global emissions growth (+170 Mt CO2).
24 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 2: Global GHG emissions
EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS BETWEEN 1970 AND 2014
450
China 400
350 India
300
World 250
200 United States 150 Index base 100 in 1990 France 100
50 EU 28
0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sources: SOeS from EDGAR, World Bank, 2015
In 2014, Chinese emissions accounted for almost 30% of global CO2 emissions. China is the first emitting country, followed by the United States (15.0%), the EU-28 (9.6% of the global total when counted as a block) and India (6.6%). Between 1990 and 2014, global CO2 emissions increased by 50%. Among the main emitters, China displays the highest growth rate: its emissions increased fourfold during the period. As for the United States, its emissions have increased by 7% since 1990. During the same period, EU-28 emissions decreased by 21% and French emissions by 16%.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 25 part 2: Global GHG emissions
GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS PER CAPITA
Change (%) Change (%) In t CO2 / capita 1990 2013 2014 2014/2013 2014/1990 North America 15.8 13.3 13.2 –0.3 –16.0 of which: Canada 16.2 16.1 15.9 –1.2 –1.9 USA 19.6 16.5 16.5 – –15.8 Central and South America 1.8 2.6 2.6 +0.1 +45.2 of which: Brazil 1.5 2.4 2.5 +2.5 +71.0 Europe and former USSR 9.9 7.1 6.8 –4.5 –31.4 of which: Russia 16.1 12.6 12.4 –1.2 –22.8 EU-28 9.1 7.1 6.7 –5.7 –26.1 of which: EU-15 9.0 7.2 6.7 –6.4 –25.1 Germany 12.5 9.8 9.3 –5.5 –25.9 Spain 5.8 5.2 5.1 –1.3 –12.0 France 6.7 5.5 5.0 –9.1 –25.4 Italy 7.5 6.0 5.5 –7.7 –26.0 United Kingdom 10.1 7.2 6.5 –9.5 –35.4 13 new EU members 9.4 6.7 6.5 –2.1 –30.8 Africa 1.1 1.0 1.0 –0.3 –3.2 Middle East 7.6 12.6 12.8 +1.6 +67.3 of which Saudi Arabia 10.4 16.1 16.9 +5.0 +62.3 Asia 1.8 4.3 4.3 +0.8 +1 33.1 of which: China 2.1 7.5 7.6 +1.3 +261.9 South Korea 6.2 12.4 12.3 –0.3 +97.4 India 0.8 1.7 1.8 +5.9 +125.0 Japan 9.6 10.3 10.1 –2.5 +5.2 Oceania 13.6 15.5 15.0 –3.1 +9.9 Annex I countries 12.9 10.9 10.6 –2.4 –17.5 Non-Annex I countries 1.7 3.5 3.5 +0.9 +106.2 World 4.3 4.9 4.9 –0.7 +15.3
Note: The figures here refer to the CO2 emissions of a territory divided by its population. The average emissions due to the consumption of an inhabitant are calculated using a different approach (carbon footprint). Sources: SOeS from EDGAR, World Bank, 2015
In 2014, global CO2 emissions came to 4.5 t CO2/capita on average, a decrease of 0.7% compared to 2013. It means that global CO2 emissions growth in 2014 (+0.5%) was lower than demographic growth (+1.2%). Emissions per capita were highest in North America (over 16 t CO2/capita in the United States), in the Middle East and in Oceania. Chinese emissions per capita are now 7,6 t CO2/ capita, above the French level of 5.0 t CO2/capita and the average for the EU-28 (6.7 t CO2/capita).
26 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 2: Global GHG emissions
EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS PER CAPITA BETWEEN 1970 AND 2014
24 United 22 States
20
18 EU 28
16
14 China
12 / capita 2 10 France t CO 8
6 World 4
2 India 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sources: SOeS from EDGAR, World Bank, 2015
Since 1990, global average emissions per capita have increased by 15%. While emissions per capita in non-annex I countries are still three times lower than in annex I countries, there is an ongoing catching-up process between those two groups of countries. For instance, since 1990, emissions per capita have been multiplied by more than 3.5 in China and have more than doubled in India. Simultaneously, CO2 emissions per capita have significantly decreased in the EU (–26%) and to a lesser extent in the United States (–16%).
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 27 part 2: Global GHG emissions
GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS IN RELATION TO GDP (EXCL. LULUCF)
Change (%) Change (%) In t CO2 / Million $ 2011 PPP 1990 2013 2014 2014/2013 2014/1990 North America 512 320 315 –1.7 –38.4 of which: Canada 519 384 375 –2.3 –27.7 USA 540 326 321 –1.5 –40.6 Central and South America 194 179 179 +0.1 –7.7 of which: Brazil 145 166 172 +3.6 +18.6 Europe and former USSR 565 316 307 –2.6 –45.6 of which: Russia 829 530 519 –2.1 –37.4 EU-28 365 208 194 –6.7 –46.8 of which: EU-15 312 192 178 –7.3 –42.9 Germany 403 209 191 –8.4 –52.6 Spain 242 165 161 –2.4 –33.5 France 222 144 131 –9.0 –41.0 Italy 243 179 166 –7.3 –31.7 United Kingdom 383 193 171 –11.4 –55.4 13 new EU members 780 306 291 –4.9 –62.7 Africa 551 234 226 –3.4 –59.0 Middle East 388 421 424 +0.7 +9.1 of which Saudi Arabia 294 308 318 +3.2 +8.2 Asia 490 426 411 –3.5 –16.1 of which: China 1,327 656 617 –5.9 –53.5 South Korea 517 371 359 –3.2 –30.6 India 423 331 333 +0.6 –21.3 Japan 321 290 282 –2.8 –12.1 Oceania 528 401 385 –4.1 –27.2 Annex I countries 485 297 287 –3.5 –40.8 Non-Annex I countries 442 382 372 –2.5 –15.7 World 484 353 344 –2.7 –28.9 Note: GDP at constant prices converted to US dollars on a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis for 2011.
Sources: SOeS from EDGAR, World Bank, 2015
The quantity of CO2 emitted per unit of GDP keeps declining worldwide with a 2.7 % decrease in 2014. There are strong disparities between countries with the highest values in China (more than 600 t CO2/ Million $) or in Russia. The United States (321 t CO2/ Million $) or Japan are slightly below the global average, while the lowest values are in the EU (194 t CO2/ Million $), in particular in France (131 t CO2/ Million $).
28 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 2: Global GHG emissions
EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS IN RELATION TO GDP BETWEEN 1990 AND 2014
1,600
China 1,400
1,200 United States
1,000 World
800
EU 28 600 / Million $ 2011 PPA 2 400 India t CO
200 France
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sources: SOeS from EDGAR, World Bank, 2015
Since 1990, the quantity of CO2 emitted per unit of GDP has dropped by 29% worldwide. It has decreased in most countries. The main exceptions are oil- producing countries such as Saudi Arabia (+8%) or raw materials exporting countries like Brazil (+18%). China was the country that recorded the sharpest drop in 24 years, with emissions per unit of GDP down by more than half. The decline in CO2 intensity in relation to GDP is also significant in the EU (–47%) and in the United States (–41%).
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 29 part 2: Global GHG emissions
Sectorial distribution of global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion
DISTRIBUTION OF CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION FOR THE MAIN EMITTERS IN 2013
3% 2% 100% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% Other sectors 90% 9% 13% (including tertiary)
80% 23% Residential 34% 70% 32% 26%
60% 19% Transport 8% 50% 10% 13% 8% 6% 40% 6% Industry and constuction 30% Energy sector 44% 42% 20% 40% 37% outside electricty
10% Electricity 0% generation World China United States EU 28
Source: IEA, 2015
Accounting for 40% of global energy-related CO2 emissions, electricity generation was the first emitting sector in 2013. Next are the transport sector and industry, respectively accounting for 23 % and 19 % of energy-related CO2 emissions. In China, electricity generation (44%) and industry (32%) are responsible for a higher share of emissions than the global average. As for the transport sector, it is responsible of a higher share than the global average in the EU (26%) and even more in the United States (34%).
30 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 3 How much greenhouse gas is emitted in Europe and in France ?
— Within the UNFCCC framework, the European Union and France report the greenhouse gases emitted on their territory. In 2014, the EU emitted 4,282 Mt CO2e excluding LULUCF, representing a drop of 24% compared to 1990. In France, emissions excluding LULUCF reached 459 Mt CO2e in 2014 and have decreased by 16% since 1990. In the EU, the energy sector is the first emitting sector while the transport sector contributes the most to French emissions. The footprint approach, complementary to the territorial approach, gives an estimate of GHG emissions arising from the consumption of French residents. In 2010, French consumption-based emissions were over 50% higher than territory-based emissions.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 31 part 3: GHG emissions in Europe and in France
Overview of GHG emissions in Europe
EU-28 GHG EMISSIONS IN 2014
In Mt CO2eq. Years CO2 CH4 N2O F-gases Total
1990 4,120.5 202.3 31.1 0.0 4,353.9 Energy use 2014 3,211.7 82.7 29.5 0.0 3,323.9
1990 321.5 1.8 117.8 71.1 512.2 Industrial processes and use of solvents 2014 238.3 2.2 11.2 121.7 373.4
1990 13.9 304.1 229.8 0.0 547.8 Agriculture (excluding energy use) 2014 10.2 236.9 187.9 0.0 434.9
1990 5.4 229.2 8.6 0.0 243.2 Waste 2014 3.5 131.5 10.7 0.0 145.7
1990 4,469.6 737.3 387.4 71.1 5,665.5 Total excl. LULUCF 2014 3,467.9 453.3 239.2 121.7 4,282.1
1990 –273.3 6.7 5.6 0.0 –255.2 LULUCF 2014 –319.3 5.1 7.0 0.0 –302.6
1990 4,196.3 744.1 398.7 71.1 5,410.3 Total 2014 3,148.5 458.4 250.9 121.7 3,979.5
Note: The waste sector excludes waste incineration with energy recovery (included in “energy use”). Source: EAA, july 2016
In 2014, European GHG emissions excluding LULUCF reached 4,282 Mt CO2e of which 81% are CO2 emissions and 78% are energy-related. European GHG emissions dropped by 4.1% compared to 2013 and by 24% over the period 1990-2014.
32 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 3: GHG emissions in Europe and in France
DISTRIBUTION OF GHG EMISSIONS (EXCL. LULUCF) IN THE EU IN 2014 In %
Energy sector: 29.1
Agriculture: 10.2 Energy Use: 77.6 Transport: 20.8 Industrial Processes and use of solvents: 8.7 Manufacturing industry and construction: 11.5
Residential-tertiary: 12.2 Waste: 3.4 Other: 4.0
Source: EAA, july 2016
In the EU, energy use was the main source of GHG emissions (78%). The largest GHG emitting sector was the energy sector (29% of emissions), ahead of transport (21%).
Between 2013 and 2014, the decline of GHG emissions can largely be ex- plained by significant decreases in the energy (–7%) and residential-tertiary (–15%) sectors.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 33 part 3: GHG emissions in Europe and in France
Overview of GHG emissions in France
FRANCE’S EMISSIONS IN 2014
In Mt CO2eq. Years CO2 CH4 N2O F-gases Total
1990 368.6 12.3 3.3 0.0 384.2 Energy use 2014 313.3 2.6 3.7 0.0 319.6
1990 25.7 0.1 23.8 11.8 61.4 Industrial processes and use of solvents 2014 18.3 0.1 1.2 20.4 40.0
1990 1.7 41.8 39.6 0.0 83.2 Agriculture (excluding energy use) 2014 1.9 39.9 37.0 0.0 78.9
1990 2.2 14.3 0.9 0.0 17.4 Waste 2014 1.7 16.8 1.0 0.0 19.5
1990 400.2 68.5 67.5 11.8 548.1 Total excl. LULUCF 2014 336.3 59.3 42.9 20.4 458.9
1990 –34.2 0.9 2.7 0.0 –30.6 LULUCF 2014 –54.0 1.1 2.3 0.0 –50.6
1990 366.1 69.5 70.2 11.8 517.5 Total 2014 282.3 60.4 45.2 20.4 408.3
Source: Citepa, juin 2016
In 2014, French GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, reached 459 Mt CO2e, of which 73% are CO2 emissions and 70% are energy-related. French GHG emissions decreased by 5.7% compared to 2013 and by 16% over the period 1990-2014.
34 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 3: GHG emissions in Europe and in France
DISTRIBUTION OF GHG EMISSIONS (EXCL. LULUCF) IN FRANCE IN 2014 In %
Energy sector: 8.6
Transport: 28.5 Agriculture: 17.2 Energy Use: 69.7
Manufacturing industry Industrial Processes and construction: 13.1 and use of solvents: 8.7 Residential-tertiary: 15.8
Other: 3.6 Waste: 4.2
Source: Citepa, juin 2016
As throughout the EU, energy use was the main GHG emission source in France accounting for 70% of total emissions excluding LULUCF. However, unlike the EU average, the largest emitting sector in France is transport (29%), while the energy sector has relatively low emissions (9%), owing to the extent of nuclear electricity generation. Between 2013 and 2014, the sectors contri- buting the most to the reduction of French emissions were the energy (–25%) and residential-tertiary (–16%) sectors.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 35 part 3: GHG emissions in Europe and in France
Carbon footprint and emissions from imported goods
COMPARISON BETWEEN THE FOOTPRINT APPROACH AND THE TERRITORIAL INVENTORY APPROACH FOR METROPOLITAN FRANCE - 2010 - CO2 ONLY
700
572 Mt CO2 600
Emissions from imported 500 goods for final use
2 380 Mt CO2 400 Emissions from imported goods for intermediate Emissions from
Mt CO consumption 300 exported goods
Emissions from domestic Emissions from domestic 200 production (excluding exports) production (excluding exports)
100 Direct emisions from households Direct emissions from households in France (cars and heating) in France (cars and heating) 0 Footprint Inventory
Source: SOeS from Citepa, Eurostat, Insee, Customs, IEA, 2016 Two complementary methods allow to estimate a country pressure on global climate: - National inventories account for GHGs physically emitted inside a territory. These national inventories are carried out each year according to UNFCCC guidelines. - The carbon footprint approach accounts for emissions from final domestic demand in the country. It includes direct emissions from households (housing and cars), emissions from domestic production (excluding exports) and em- issions from imported goods.
36 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 3: GHG emissions in Europe and in France
EVOLUTION OF FRANCE’S CO2 EMISSIONS ACCORDING TO THE TERRITORIAL APPROACH AND THE FOOTPRINT APPROACH
Carbon footprint National inventory
9.7 700 10 9.1 9.1 8.2 8.3 9 600 8 6.8 6.9 6.8 500 7 6.1 268 2 217 279 292 5.2 6 400 167 5 Mt CO / capita
300 2 4
416 t CO 393 407 3 200 380 324 337 310 317 294 2 240 100 1
0 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015e 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015p
CO2 emissions inside metropolitan France p: provisional CO2 emissions from imported goods e: estimation Domestic CO2 emissions (domestic production for domestic demand + households) CO2 footprint per capita CO2 territorial emissions per capita
Source: SOeS from Citepa, Eurostat, Insee, Customs, IEA, 2016
In 2015, the French carbon footprint (CO2 only) amounted to 532 Mt of CO2, 11.7% higher than in 1995. Emissions from imported goods increased by 76% over the same period. However, if the increased population is taken into account, the footprint calculated per capita in 2015 is almost the same as in 1995. Over this period, emissions inside metropolitan France decreased by 14.4% and the average emissions per capita by 23%. Both emissions from the territorial inventory and the carbon footprint have been declining since the middle of the 2000’s.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 37 part 3: GHG emissions in Europe and in France
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION ACCORDING TO THE TWO APPROACHES Absolute emissions Emissions per capita 16 16
OCDE OCDE 14 14 in 1990 in 1990
12 12
EU-28 10 Approach 10 Consumption-based Territory-based 8 Transfer of Embodied CO2 8
2 Net Import
Net Export China /capita 2
Gt CO Economies 6 6
t CO In transition EU-28 China
4 4 Middle-East Economies and Africa in transition
2 Middle-East 2 and Africa Latin America
Latin America 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 Source: I4CE from Global Carbon Budget, 2015
Between 1990 and 2012, CO2 emissions in the OECD increased by 5% according to the territorial approach, and by 9% according to the footprint approach. In the EU, over the same period, they dropped by 18% according to the territorial ap- proach but only by 14% with the footprint approach. In China, they have more than tripled according to both approaches.
According to the territorial approach, emissions per capita in China are now close to the EU average. However, according to the footprint approach, emis- sions per capita in China are still 30% lower than in the EU (and 50% lower than the OECD average).
38 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 4 What is the sectoral distribution of GHG emissions in Europe and in France?
— European and French inventories enable a breakdown of GHG emissions by economic sectors and subsectors. In Europe and in France, the decline in emissions since 1990 has been the most significant in the manufacturing industry followed by the energy sector. Emissions in the residential and tertiary sectors have also been following a downward trend in the EU and to a lesser extent, in France. The transport sector is an exception as the level of emissions in 2014 was higher than in 1990, both in Europe and in France. However, since the mid 2000s, emissions have been decreasing in the transport sector at both levels. Emissions from LULUCF are negative, hence meaning that there is a net sequestration of CO2 by biomass and soils.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 39 part 4: Sectoral distribution of GHG emissions in Europe and France
GHG emissions from the energy sector
GHG EMISSIONS FROM THE ENERGY SECTOR IN THE EU
2,000 Public electricity
e) 1,800 2 and heat 1,600 production 1,400 Fugitive emissions 1,200 from fuels 1,000 800 Manufacture of 600 solid fuels and other 400 GHG emissions (Mt CO 200 Petroleum refining 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Note: Public electricity and heat production includes waste incineration with energy recovery. Heat refers here to traded heat only. Source: EEA,July 2016 GHG EMISSIONS FROM THE ENERGY SECTOR IN FRANCE
100 Public electricity
e) 90 2 and heat 80 production 70 Fugitive emissions 60 from fuels 50 40 Manufacture of 30 solid fuels and other 20 GHG emissions (Mt CO 10 Petroleum refining 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Note: Public electricity and heat production includes waste incineration with energy recovery. Heat refers here to traded heat only. Source: Citepa,June 2016
40 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 4: Sectoral distribution of GHG emissions in Europe and France
CO2 EMISSIONS FROM THE GENERATION OF 1 KWH OF ELECTRICITY IN THE EU
1,000
Poland 900
800 Germany
700 United Kingdom 600
/ kWh Italy 2 500 g CO 400 EU-28
300 France 200
Sweden 100
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
Note: cogeneration and autoproduction are included
Source: IEA, October 2015
CO2 emissions per unit of electricity generated vary greatly from one country to another in the EU-28. They are very high (over 400 g CO2/kWh) in countries where coal remains a major source for electricity production, such as Germany and some countries in Central and Eastern Europe. They are low in countries where renewable energy and/or nuclear power have been significantly deve- loped, such as France (78% nuclear and 12% hydro in 2014) and Sweden (42% hydro and 41% nuclear).
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 41 part 4: Sectoral distribution of GHG emissions in Europe and France
GHG emissions from transport
GHG EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORT IN THE EU
1,000
800 e) 2 Road 60 Other Rail 40 Aviation 20 Shipping GHG emissions (Mt CO and inland waterways 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Note: Emissions from international aviation and shipping are excluded. Source: EEA,July 2016
GHG EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORT IN FRANCE (INCL. OVERSEAS TERRITORIES)
140
120 e) 2 100 Road Other
8 Rail
6 Aviation 4 Shipping and inland GHG emissions (Mt CO 2 waterways 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Note: Emissions from international aviation and shipping are excluded. Emissions from transport between metropolitan France and French overseas departments are included. Source: Citepa,June 2015
42 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 4: Sectoral distribution of GHG emissions in Europe and France
GHG EMISSIONS BY MODE OF TRANSPORT INSIDE METROPOLITAN FRANCE In % Light commercial vehicule: 19.1 Motorcycles: 1.2
Heavy goods vehicules: 21.3 Aviation: 3.5 Other: 5.2
Private vehicules: 53.2 Shipping and inland waterways: 1.0 Other: 0.4 Rail: 0.4
Source: Citepa, June 2016
INTENSITY OF GHG EMISSIONS IN METROPOLITAN FRANCE
110
105 Domestic 100 passenger 95 transport 90 85 80 Domestic freight 75 Inde base 100 en 1990 70 65 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Note: The indicators used for freight and passenger transport are, respectively, GHG emissions per tonne-kilometre and GHG emissions per passenger-kilometre.
Source: Citepa, June 2016 and SOeS
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 43 part 4: Sectoral distribution of GHG emissions in Europe and France
GHG emissions from the manufacturing industry and the construction sector
GHG EMISSIONS FROM THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY AND THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN THE EU
1,400 Food processing, e) 2 1,200 beverages and tobacco 1,000 Other 800 manufacturing 600 industries and construction sector 400 Metal industry 200 Chemicals
GHG emissions (Mt CO 0 Non-metallic minerals 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Note: emissions from each sector include energy-related emissions and emissions from industrial processes. Source: EEA,July 2016
GHG EMISSIONS FROM THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY AND THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN FRANCE (INCL. OVERSEAS TERRITORIES)
140 Food processing, e) 2 beverages and 120 tobacco 100 Other 80 manufacturing industries and 60 construction sector 40 Metal industry 20 Chemicals
GHG emissions (Mt CO 0 Non-metallic minerals 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Note: emissions from each sector include energy-related emissions and emissions from industrial processes. Source: Citepa,June 2016
44 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 4: Sectoral distribution of GHG emissions in Europe and France
GHG EMISSIONS INTENSITY OF THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY AND THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN FRANCE
GHG emissions per unit of value added 110
100
90
80
70
60
Index base 100 in 1990 50
40 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Source: Insee (value added), Citepa (GHG emissions), June 2016
CO2 INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL CO2-INTENSIVE PRODUCTS IN FRANCE
2
Steel 1.5
1 Glass /t product 2 t CO 0.5 Clinker
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Note: Clinker is a component of cement that results from heating a mixture of silicia, iron oxide and limestone
Sources: Fédération française de l’acier (FFA), Fédération des chambres syndicales de l’industrie du verre (FCSIV), Syndicat français de l’industrie cimentière (SFIC), Citepa
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 45 part 4: Sectoral distribution of GHG emissions in Europe and France
GHG emissions from the residential and tertiary sectors
GHG EMISSIONS FROM THE RESIDENTIAL AND TERTIARY SECTORS IN THE EU
800 e)
2 700 600 Tertiary 500 400 300 200 Residential 100
GHG emissions (Mt CO 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Source: EEA, July 2016
GHG EMISSIONS FROM THE RESIDENTIAL AND TERTIARY SECTORS IN FRANCE (INCL. OVERSEAS TERRITORIES)
1.40 e)
2 120 1.20 Tertiary 100 1.00 80 0.80 Residential 60 0.60
40 0.40 Index base 1 20 0.20 Climate
GHG emissions (Mt CO severity 0 0.00 index 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Source: Citepa, June 2016 and SOeS from Météo-France, 2016
Emissions from the residential and tertiary sectors vary depending on climate conditions. Temperatures were particularly mild in 1994, 2002, 2007, 2011 and 2014. This resulted in a reduction in heating consumption and thus in CO2 emissions. In contrast, 1991, 1996 and 2010 were exceptionally cold.
46 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 4: Sectoral distribution of GHG emissions in Europe and France
DISTRIBUTION OF CO2 EMISSIONS FROM RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS IN METROPOLITAN FRANCE
Distribution of residential emissions Distribution of residential by usage as % emissions by fuel as %
Cooking: 6 LPG: 5 Coal: 2 Hot water: 10
Fuel oil: 32
Heating: 84 Gas: 61
Note: only CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion are taken into account. The carbon content of electricity is not measured. Source: SOeS from Ceren, 2016 Since 1990, natural gas has displaced coal and fuel oil for heating, cooking, and hot water production in buildings. Combustion of natural gas now accounts for 61 % of CO2 emissions from residential buildings.
CO2 INTENSITY FOR THE RESIDENTIAL AND TERTIARY SECTORS IN FRANCE 120 110 Tertiary 100 intensity 90 80 70 Residential 60 intensity Index base 100 in 1990 50 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Note: emissions from the tertiary sector are divided by the value added of the tertiary sector (excluding transports) while emissions from residential buildings are divided by the total surface of occupied buildings.
Source: SOeS from Citepa and Insee, 2016
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 47 part 4: Sectoral distribution of GHG emissions in Europe and France
GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and land use
GHG EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE IN THE EU 700 Energy use 600 500 Other emissions from e) 2 agriculture excl. 400 energy use 300
(Mt CO Manure management
GHG emissions 200 Agricultural soils 100 Enteric fermentation 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Source: EEA, July 2016
GHG EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE IN FRANCE (INCL. OVERSEAS TERRITORIES)
100 Energy use 90 80 70 Other emissions from e) 2 60 agriculture excl. 50 energy use 40 (Mt CO Manure management 30 GHG emissions Agricultural soils 20 10 Enteric fermentation 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Source: Citepa, June 2016 Agriculture differs from other economic sectors as most of the GHG emissions are not energy-related. The main GHGs sources are CH4 emitted by livestock (enteric fermentation) and N2O emitted by agriculture soils and linked to the nitrogen cycle.
48 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 4: Sectoral distribution of GHG emissions in Europe and France
GHG EMISSIONS FROM LULUCF IN THE EU 100
0 Cropland 1990 2000 2010 2014 e) 2 –100 Settlements
–200 Forest Land –300 LULUCF (total)
GHG emissions (Mt CO –400
–500 Source: EEA, July 2016
GHG EMISSIONS FROM LULUCF IN FRANCE (INCL. OVERSEAS TERRITORIES) 50
30 Cropland e) 2 10 Settlements
–101990 2000 2010 2014 Forest –30 land LULUCF –50 (total)
GHG emissions (Mt CO –70
–90 Source: Citepa, June 2016
Emissions from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestery (LULUCF) are negative in both the European Union and France. This means that LULUCF activities sequester more GHGs than they emit. This is mainly due to the growth of forests. In France, these sequestrations have been on an upward trend since 1990.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 49 part 4: Sectoral distribution of GHG emissions in Europe and France
GHG emissions from waste management
GHG EMISSIONS FROM WASTE MANAGEMENT IN THE EU
300 e)
2 250 Other 200 Wastewater 150 treatment and discharge 100 Solid waste disposal 50
GHG emissions (Mt CO 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Note: emissions from waste incineration with energy recovery are not included (included in “energy sector”). Source: EEA, July 2016 GHG EMISSIONS FROM WASTE MANAGEMENT IN FRANCE (INCL. OVERSEAS TERRITORIES) 25 e) 2 20 Other
15 Wastewater treatment and 10 discharge
5 Solid waste disposal
GHG emissions (Mt CO 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Note: emissions from waste incineration with energy recovery are not included (included in “energy sector”). Source: Citepa, June 2016 GHG emissions from waste management are mostly made of methane, emitted during the decomposition of waste in landfills. These emissions have been decrea- sing in Europe since the mid 90’s and in France since the mid 2000’s.
50 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 5 Which climate policies in the world, in Europe and in France?
— COP 21 led to the adoption of the Paris agreement in December 2015, which implies pledges to limit GHG emissions both for developped and developing countries. The European Union set a 40% emissions reduction target in 2030 compared to 1990 levels as well as climate policies based in particular on an emissions trading system. Carbon pricing mechanisms are set in the world, notably to reorient financial flows. France adopted a national low carbon strategy and carbon budgets to implement the transition to a low carbon economy.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 51 part 5: Climate policies
International negotiations
UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (UNFCCC)
The UNFCCC, first international treaty aiming at preventing dangerous human interference with the climate system, was adopted in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro. It recognizes 3 principles: - a precautionary principle: lack of full scientific certainty on the impacts of cli- mate change shall not be used as a reason for delaying action; - the principle of common but differentiated responsibility: all GHG emissions have an impact on global warming but the most industrialized countries carry a greater responsibility for the current concentration of GHGs; - the principle of the right to development: climate actions shall not have a negative impact on the priorities of developing countries, including a sustainable economic growth and the fight against poverty.
Countries that are party to the UNFCCC meet at the end of each year for the “Conference of the Parties” (COP). Major UNFCCC decisions are made during these conferences. The 21st COP was held in Paris (France) at the Le Bourget site from 30 November to 11 December 2015.
Brundtland Report, United Nations the concept of Framework Convention Durban sustainable on Climate Change Entry into force Platform COP 21 development is born (UNFCCC) of Kyoto Protocol established in Paris
1987 1988 1992 1997 2005 2008 2011 2013 2015 2020
Creation of Signature First Commitment Period Second Commitment Period the IPCC of the Kyoto Protocol of the Kyoto Protocol of the Kyoto Protocol
52 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 5: Climate policies
KYOTO PROTOCOL
One of the first and most notable outcomes of a COP is the Kyoto Protocol which was agreed in 1997 and entered into force in 2005 after being ratified by Russia. It achieved the quorum of 55 States representing a minimum of 55% of Annex B emissions in 1990. The Protocol is an agreement between 38 of the most developed countries (Annex B countries) which sets a goal to reduce GHG emissions by roughly 5% between 2008 and 2012 relative to 1990 levels. Targets are binding and differentiated by country, with no emissions reduction objectives for Non-Annex B Parties. Amongst Annex-B countries, only the United States have not ratified the Protocol, and Canada withdrew from the Protocol in December 2011. In 2011, at COP17 in Durban (South Africa), Parties agreed to continue the Protocol for a second period of commitment from 2013 to 2020. Those countries that announced a commitment for the second period represented 13% of global emissions in 2010.
Status of ratification of the Kyoto protocol
AnnexeAnnexe B countries - No ratificationratification or withdrawal AnnexeAnnexe B countries - RatifiedRatified - Participation to the ffirstirst period Source: UNFCCC, AnnexeAnnexe B countries - RatifiedRatified - Participation to the second perioperiodd September 2016 RatifieRatified Not ratifiedratified
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 53 part 5: Climate policies
Paris agreement
PARIS APPROACH
In contrast to the Kyoto Protocol approach, the Paris Agreement afforded Parties flexibility to determine and submit their own climate commitments based on their national circumstances, in the form of intended Nationally De- termined Contributions (iNDCs). iNDCs describe national or regional emissions reduction targets to be achieved in the medium and long-term along with their climate mitigation and adaptation plans.
By adopting a bottom–up approach to determine and define Party ambition, the Agreement was able to engage both developed and developing parties, ensuring different climate priorities and issues were represented in the text and that consensus on the final text would be achievable.
GHG emissions reduction goals in a selection of submitted iNDCs
UNFCCC party iNDC
European Union At least –40% in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels
China A peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030
United States Between –26% and –28% in GHG emissions by 2025 compared to 2005 levels
Brazil –37% in GHG emissions in 2025 compared to 2005 levels
Source: UNFCCC
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IMPACT OF INDCS ON GLOBAL GHG EMISSIONS Comparison of 2025 and 2030 global emissions levels resulting from iNDCs’ implementation and other scenarios
Illustrative eq/yr GWP – 100 AR4) eq/yr GWP – 100 2
High Cancun pledge scenarios until 2030 with const. policy thereafter (n=31; Ampere HST P3 1 in IPCC AR5 scenario database) 2 Min/max of conditional & unconditional INDC ranges, globally aggregated Ranges 3 Delay-2020 (P2) scenarios with >66% likelihoodof staying below 2°C (n=6 from IPCC AR5 scenario database) 4 “Immediate” onset mitigation (P1) scenarios with >66% likelihood of staying below 2°C (n=14 from IPCC AR5 Greenhouse gas emissions (Gt CO scenario database) 80% 5 Delay-2030 (P3) scenarios with >50% likelihood of staying below 2°C (n=21 from IPCC AR5 scenario database) 66% 50% 6 Reductions below reference scenarios due to INDCs (median) 33% 20% 7 Illustrative difference between INDCs and 2°C mitigation scenarios (P1P2) 8 Delay-2020 (P2) scenarios with >50% likelihood of staying below 1.5°C by 2100 (median) (n=6 from scientific literature)
Source: UNFCCC Synthesis report, 2016
The UNFCCC has published a Synthesis Report that aggregates information from all iNDCs submitted by April 2016. This report concluded that, taking into account implementation of all iNDCs, GHG emissions are expected to increase between 34-53% by 2030 relative to 1990 levels. Per capita emissions are on the contrary expected to decrease by 10 % between 1990 and 2030. Thus, iNDCs in their current form appear to be insufficient in meeting the 2°C-1.5°C objectives of the Paris Agreement. Reaching these objectives is still possible but will require drastically increasing the ambition as soon as possible.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 55 part 5: Climate policies
CONTENT OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT
On December 12th 2015 at COP21 in Paris, a text known as the Paris Agreement was adopted by the UNFCCC. For the first time, both developing and developed country Parties will (pending ratification) have binding commitments under the Convention. The bottom-up iNDC process successfully received 162 submissions repre- senting 189 country pledges. The key objectives of the Paris Agreement are threefold: 1. Mitigation • To contain the rise of global mean temperatures “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” by 2100 and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. • To reach global peaking of GHG emissions as soon as possible. • To achieve net-zero emissions before the end of the century. 2. Adaptation: • To enhance support and capacity building for adaptation and loss & damage. 3. Finance: • To make finance flows consistent with climate objectives. • To mobilise at least $100 billion in climate finance annually, from developed to developing countries between 2020 and 2025.
The Agreement introduces a Transparency Framework; it enhances cooperation at every level (between public and private stakeholders), and includes a “ratche- ting mechanism” to ensure that Parties do not decrease climate ambition over time. To enter into force the Agreement must be ratified by at least 55 Parties representing at least 55% of global emissions.
New nationally determined contributions
Mobilisation of $100 billion New collective quantified in climate finance goal for climate finance
2018 2020 2023 2025
Facilitative dialogue to take stock of the First Global Stocktake collective efforts and to inform the preparation of further contributions
56 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 5: Climate policies
Commitments of the European Union
CLIMATE AND ENERGY PACKAGE 2020
The Climate and Energy Package sets three targets for 2020, known as “20-20-20”: • A 20% cut in GHG emissions from 1990 levels; • A 20% share of renewables in EU gross final consumption of energy. This objective is translated into a national binding target for each Member State; • A 20% improvement in energy efficiency. This objective corresponds to a 20% decrease in primary energy consumption compared to the Baseline scenario defined in 2007.
Share of renewables in the Member States’ gross final energy consumption (%)
60 2004 2020 target 2014 50
40
30
20
10
0 Italiy Malta Spain Latvia EU 28 Ireland France Austria Poland Cyprus Greece Croatia Finland Estonia Sweden Belgium Bulgaria Portugal Slovakia Hungary Slovenia Romania Denmark Lithuania Germany Netherlands Luxembourg Czech Republic United Kingdom
Source: Eurostat
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 57 part 5: Climate policies
CLIMATE AND ENERGY PACKAGE 2030
At a meeting on 23-24 October 2014, the European Council agreed on the 2030 climate and energy framework for the EU, which sets three targets for 2030: • A 40% cut in GHG emissions from 1990 levels; • A 27% share of renewables in EU gross final consumption of energy; • A 27% improvement in energy efficiency, which means a 27% decrease in primary energy consumption compared to the Baseline scenario defined in 2007. The translation into regulation of the 2030 climate and energy package is currently under discussion.
The European Parliament calls for a target of a 30% share of renewables in gross final energy consumption and a 40% target for energy efficiency. The European Commission is expected to present proposals to revise the Renewable Energy and the Energy Efficiciency Directives by the end of 2016.
EU-28 primary energy consumption evolution and targets to 2020 and 2030
2,000
1,900
1,800 –16,3% –27% in 2014 in 2030 1,700 –20% in 2020 1,600 Mtoe
1,500 1,453 Mtoe 1,400
1,300
1,200 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Historical primary energy consumption Baseline scenario 2007 2020 and 2030 targets pathway
Source: Eurostat et European Commission
58 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 5: Climate policies
EU-28 GHG emissions evolution and targets to 2020 and 2030
6,000
5,500 –22,9% –20% –40% in 2014 in 2020 in 2030 eq
2 5,000
Mt CO 4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Historical GHG emissions 2020 and 2030 targets pathway
Source: Eurostat et European Commission
EFFORT SHARING
The two main policy instruments to achieve the emissions reduction targets are the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS, see p. 60) and the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD), which sets national emissions reduction targets for non-ETS sectors. The 20% emissions reduction target by 2020 compared to 1990 translates into a 21% reduction from 2005 levels for the EU ETS and a 10% reduc- tion compared to 2005 for other sectors. The 40% emissions reduction target by 2030 compared to 1990 translates into a 43% reduction from 2005 levels for the EU ETS and a 30% reduc- tion compared to 2005 for other sectors. The Commission published in July 2016 a proposal to revise the Effort Sharing decision to divide the objective between Member States for the post-2020 period.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 59 part 5: Climate policies
The EU ETS
PRINCIPLE
The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) was created in 2005 with the aim of setting an annual cap on the emissions from heavy energy-using installations (power stations and industrial plants) and is now in its third phase (2013-2020).
Under the cap, installations receive or buy allowances which they can trade with each other. Every year, they have to surrender a number of allowances (1 allowance = 1 tonne of CO2) equal to their verified emissions of the previous year.
Since 2013, new sectors and new GHGs have been included in the EU ETS. It covers now 11,600 power stations and industrial plants installations in the EU and other countries of the European Economic Area (Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland), as well as airlines operating between these countries, which represents about 45% of total GHG emissions.
EU ETS annual calendar
Beginning of year N Publication of End of year N year N-1 verifed emissions by the European Commission
1st Jan. 28 Feb 30 Mar 30 Apr 15 Ma y 31 Dec.
Free allowances Installations for year N are allocated submit their verified Installations return as many into the installations’ emissions for year N-1 allowances as their N-1 year Union Registry account to the national authority emissions on their Union Registry account
Source: I4CE
60 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 5: Climate policies
Sectoral GHG emissions in the EU ETS in phases II and III
2,500 Other
Ceramics 2,000 Glass
Paper 1,500 eq
2 Lime
Cement
Mt CO 1,000 Refining
Steel 500 Other combustion
Power sector 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: I4CE based on EU TL data
ALLOCATION OF ALLOWANCES
During the first two phases of the EU ETS (2005-2007, the pilot phase, and 2008-2012, the first Kyoto commitment period), covered installations received every year the majority of their allowances for free, as set in the National Allo- cation Plans (NAP), established under the supervision of the European Commission.
In phase III (2013-2020), the allocation of allowances is centralised at the level of the European Commission.
EU ETS sectors (excluding aviation) have a 21% emissions reduction target by 2020 compared to 2005 levels, which corresponds to an annual decrease of the cap by a linear reduction factor of 1.74% of the average total number of allowances issued annually in 2008-2012.
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FEWER AND FEWER FREE ALLOCATIONS
The share of allocations auctioned was 0.19% in phase 1 and 3.6% in phase 2.
Since 2013, auctioning has become the default allocation method. Have to be auctioned : • 100 % of the allocation for power generators, with a temporary exception in eight countries in Eastern and Central Europe; • 20 % of the allocation for manufacturing industry in 2013, a share progressively increasing to 70% in 2020.
Free allocations are set according to benchmarks of carbon intensity. Sectors and subsectors deemed to be exposed to a risk of carbon leakage (transfer of production to other countries with laxer emission constraints) receive 100% of the benchmark-based allocation until 2020. Auctions may be pooled but the revenues are managed by Member States.
ETS revenue spending by EU Member States (2013-2015), in % 0.2
7 2.3 Renewables support: 1 616,7 M€ 5.4 Energy Efficiency support: 1 579,1 M€ 29.2 International support and climate finance: 704.7 M€ Conservation and adaptation: 133.9 M€ 12.2 Low-emissions infrastructure: 678.1 M€ Transversal research and 2.4 development: 296.9 M€ Mixed spending : 130.1 M€ Other public spending (not directly resulting 12.7 in emissions reductions): 389.1 M€ Administrative costs of the EU ETS: 8.9 M€ 28.5
Source: I4CE, May 2016
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TRADING CARBON ALLOWANCES Allowances are tradable : an installation emitting more than its allocation may purchase allowances on the market, while installations which reduce their emissions can sell their unused allowances. Emissions are thus cut where it costs least to do so.
The trading of allowances is done over-the-counter i.e through bilateral contracts between industrials, or on market platforms, electronic portals which publicly list prices and amounts traded.
CARBON PRICE HISTORY
30
Phase 2 and phase 3 allowances spot price 25
20 eq 2 15 € /t CO
10
5
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: ICE Futures Europe
The spot price is the price at which allowances can be sold for immmediate delivery; futures prices correspond to prices defined in contracts for a delivery at a later date specified in the contracts.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 63 part 5: Climate policies
ALLOWANCES SURPLUS AND EU ETS REFORM FOR PHASE IV (2021-2030) Low prices on the EU ETS (see previous page) are the consequence of the allowances surplus which has built up since 2009.
A first step of the reform was the backloading measure, which consisted in post poning the auctioning of 900 million allowances from 2014-2016 to 2019-2020.
A second step will be the implementation of the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) in 2019, whose objective is to regulate the long-term surplus by applying thresholds on the total amount of allowances circulating in the market.
The European Commission published in July 2015 a proposal for the reform of the EU ETS Directive. The trilogue negotiations between the Commission, the Parliament and the Council should start in March 2017.
The revision of the directive will notably set the linear reduction factor by which the emissions cap is reduced annually. The Commission recommended to change this linear factor from 1.74% to 2.2% after 2020.
Estimation of the supply of allowances in phases III and IV (2013-2030)
2.5
2.0
1.5 eq 2
1.0 G t CO
0.5
0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Free allocation Auctioning Plafond d'émission
Source: I4CE based on data from the European Commission
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Climate finance
ESTIMATION OF ANNUAL GLOBAL INVESTMENTS AND SUBSIDIES (2011-2012)
700
600
500
400
Billion USD 300
200
100
0 Climate North-South Upstream Fossil Renewable Energy Renewable Fossil finance climate oil and gas Electricity Electricity efficiency energy fuel subsidies finance generation subsidies
Dark blue represents the low end of the range indicated Light blue represents the high end of the range indicated
Source: Standing Committee on Finance, 2014
Climate finance encompasses all the financial flows which enable the imple- mentation of actions with a positive impact in terms of mitigation (GHG emis- sions reductions) or adaptation to climate change. Depending on the definition and the organization, distinctions can be made according to the level of impact and whether it is a shared benefit or the main purpose of the financed action.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 65 part 5: Climate policies
CUMULATIVE GLOBAL ENERGY SECTOR INVESTMENTS BETWEEN 2015 AND 2030 IN THE IEA 450 SCENARIO
0.4 0.6 In trillion dollars 2013 1.1 End-use efficiency Industry Transport 5.2 5.5 Buildings
Power supply Fossil fuels Nuclear 450 Scénario 4.6 Renewables 7.6 $37.9 trillion Transmission & distribution
Fuel supply 1.9 Oil 1.3 Gas 4.2 Coal 5.6 Biofuels
Source: International Energy Agency, June 2015
Achieving the 2°C target requires raising significant amounts – in the order of magnitude of one or several trillion dollars annually until 2030 – across all sectors, both for energy use and energy production. However, any scenario based on a continuation of current needs would require significant investments, regardless of the climate constraint.
The difference between a business-as-usual scenario and a 450 ppm scena- rio – i.e. consistent with the goal of limiting the global increase in temperature to 2°C by limiting the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere to around 450 ppm of CO2 – is mainly about the distribution of investments. Indeed, higher investments are necessary in low carbon technologies and energy efficiency in a 450 ppm scenario, but lower investments are required in fossil fuels production for instance.
66 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 5: Climate policies
Total Comparison of current climate investments and climate finance world GDP needs with key financial indicators 75,600
Total world investment
17,030
Global R&D & innovation spending
Climate finance needs 1,600 Fossil fuel subsidies
Current Climate +1,000 investments Overseas development assistance Green R&D 550 & innovation spending 331 17 132
(in billion dollars/year) Sources: I4CE, May 2015 from IEA, 2015, World Bank, 2013, UNFCCC, 2014, Climate Policy Initiative, 2014 and OECE, 2013
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 67 part 5: Climate policies
LANDSCAPE OF CLIMATE FINANCE IN FRANCE (IN BILLION CURRENT EUROS)
Source: I4CE, 2015
In 2013 in France, investment contributing to GHG mitigation is estimated at up to €36.3bn across the five sectors displayed on the right side of the diagram. This investment was initiated by public and private project deve- lopers, who were most often considered to be the end-owners of the assets created. For example, households realized a majority of their investments in the residential (building) sector, whereas private companies invested primarily in transports and energy production.
68 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 5: Climate policies
Note: This overview only represents financial flows which correspond to effective invest- ments. Some public subsidies, such as VAT reduction for energy efficiency in buildings, or feed-in tariffs for renewable energy, are not represented in this diagram.
To finance these investments, project developers resorted to four principal types of instruments: 1) grants, transfers and subsides; 2) concessional debt at interest rates, tenure or volume preferential to typical market conditions; 3) commercial market debt; 4) and equity or own funds. Balance-sheet financing, which is used by private companies, is represented as a combination of commercial debt company-wide and equity.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 69 part 5: Climate policies
Carbon pricing in the world
To prompt economic operators to invest more in clean energy and low carbon technologies and less in carbon-intensive technologies, some governments have decided to give an economic value to the emission of one t CO2e. Several economic instruments exist in the policy toolkit to create a carbon price. Some of them target prices (taxes), others target the level of emissions (ETS).
Carbon pricing world map British Columbia in July 2016 Alberta*** 27.6 13.9 13.9 Quebec 11.5
Ontario
Mexico 2016 prices given in €/t CO2e California 0.9 - RGGI 1,8 Emissions Trading Scheme 11.5 4.4
Scheduled Emissions Trading Scheme Carbon Tax
Scheduled Carbon Tax
* Rate varies by sector/energy product ** ETS suspended until 2018 Chile *** The 2015 Specified Gas Emitters Regulation (SGER) price is the fee paid into 4.5 Climate Change and Emissions Management Fund, set at €10.9/t CO2e. The Carbon Competitiveness Regulation (CCR) will replace the SGER in 2018, at which point, an economy-wide carbon price of €21.8/t CO2e will be set **** Latvia has two taxes on carbon emissions: a Natural Resource Tax and a Tax on cars and motor vehicles. China ETS pilots: Beijing, Chongqing, Guangdong, Hubei, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Tianjin. RGGI: Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont. Note: Prices were calculated using exchange rates provided by XE.com on 8 July 2016.
70 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide part 5: Climate policies
Some 40 countries and more than 20 cities, states and provinces already use carbon pricing mechanisms. Amongst them are big emitters such as Chi- na, South Korea, the EU, South Africa, Japan and Mexico.
In 2016, 13% of global GHG emissions are covered by an explicit carbon pricing mechanism. These carbon pricing policies currently include 15 ETS and 16 carbon taxes.
Sweden
96 Iceland* Norway* Finland 38,6 - 29.6 - 54 - 54,4 133.6 58 Danemark UK 23 21.2 Estonia Ireland 2 20 South Lettonia**** Kazakhstan** Korea EU 3.5 13.3 Japan France 5,5 Slovenia 2.6 22 China 17.3 1 - 6
6.7 Saitama 8,3 77.4 Portugal NC Switzerland Tokyo 9 - 54
South New Africa Zealand 7.8 9
Source: I4CE, July 2016
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Member State Climate Policies: the case of France
By the energy transition for green growth Act published in August 2015, France has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 40% between 1990 and 2030 and to dividing them by four between 1990 and 2050. To achieve these objectives, the law introduces new planning tools at the national level: the French national low-carbon strategy (SNBC), carbon budgets and a multi-annual energy programming.
The SNBC, published by the decree of the 19th of November 2015, includes cross-sectoral recommendations to implement the transition to a low-carbon economy and, beyond emissions reductions within the territory, calls for a re- duction of the carbon footprint of France.
A carbon budget is the maximum amount of greenhouse gas emissions natio- nally released. It defines the trajectory of emission reductions for successive periods of 4 and 5 years.
st nd rd Annual Average emissions 1 carbon 2 carbon 3 carbon 2013 budget budget budget (in Mt CO2eq) (2015-2018) (2019-2023) (2024-2028) Sectors covered by the EU ETS (excluding international 119 110 n.d. n.d. aviation) Other sectors 373 332 n.d. n.d.
All sectors 492 442 399 358 Source: Decree No. 2015-1491 of 19 November 2015 concerning national carbon budgets and the national low-carbon strategy
The multiannual energy programming, of which a draft has been put in consul- tation on the 1st of July 2016, sets out the objectives and priorities of public authorities in their management of various forms of energy, in line with the SNBC and the carbon budgets.
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Examples of emission factors Transport
1,000 km (approximately one Paris-Amsterdam return trip) = > 0.21 t CO2 by car (French average), or 213 g CO2 / km. Increasing the number of passen- gers proportionately reduces these emissions; > 0.31 t CO2e by plane (with a 75% load factor). The shorter the trip, the higher the emissions per kilometre, as take-off and landing use proportionately more fuel. > 0.07 t CO2e by train. Emissions vary depending on energy source. In France they are low (9 g CO2 / km), as electricity is mainly generated from nuclear power.
Electricity generation and consumption
A typical power station with a capacity of 250 MW operating off-peak (8,000 h / yr) emits: > 1.7 Mt CO2 / yr for a coal-fired power station (0.87 t CO2 / MWh, with a 40% thermal efficiency rate); > 0.72 Mt CO2 / yr for a gas-fired power station (0.36 t CO2 / MWh, with a 55% thermal efficiency rate); > 1.5 t CO2 / yr are emitted per European household through electricity consumption for lighting, heating and consumption for electrical appliances, the main emissions for buildings.
Industry
A typical steelworks producing 1 Mt of steel per year emits on average: > 1.8 Mt CO2 / yr for a traditional steelworks (1.8 t CO2 per tonne of steel); > 0.5 Mt CO2 / yr for an electric steelworks (scrap melting) (0.5 t CO2 per tonne of steel corresponding to indirect emissions from electricity); Other CO2 emitting industries: > 0.35 Mt CO2 / yr for a typical cement works producing 500,000 t / yr (0.7 t CO2 per tonne of cement); > 0.09 Mt CO2 / yr for a typical glassworks producing 150,000 t / yr (0.6 t CO2 per tonne of glass);
Forestry and agriculture
> 580 t CO2e were emitted per hectare of deforested tropical forest (combustion and decomposition).
Agriculture in France emits on average: > 3 t CO2e / yr from enteric fermentation and 2.2 t CO2e/yr from manure produced per dairy cow; > 0.5 t CO2e / yr per pig from manure produced. Source: ADEME, AEE, Cement sustainability initiative, CITEPA, Commission européenne, Fédération des chambres syndicales de l’industrie du verre, GIEC
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 73 part 5: Climate policies
CO2 EMISSION FACTORS
11
10
9
8
/ toe 7 2 6 t CO 5
4
3
2
1
0
Peat Coal LNG LPG Naphta Ethane Oil Shale Coal Tar Bitumen Shale Oil Gasoline Anthracite Crude Oil LubricantsKerosene Patent Fuel Orimulsion Refinery Gas Natural Gas Gas/Diesel Oil Coke Oven Gas Coke Oven Coke Lignite andPetroleum BKB Coke Residual Fuel Oil Blast Furnace Gas Bituminous Sands
Oxygen Steel Furnace Gas Source: IPCC, Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, 2006
CO2 emission factors indicate the average amount of CO2 emitted when a given fuel is combusted to produce one unit of energy (here, tonne of oil equivalent or toe). They are calculated by relating the CO2 emissions measured to the amount of energy generated.
These emission factors are standard values and can be broken down by country.
The specific case of biomass is not covered here: CO2 emissions from the com- bustion of biomass are considered to be compensated by the assimilation of CO2 that will occur when the biomass is reconstituted. If this is not the case, any un- compensated emissions are recorded in the LULUCF sector (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry).
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Glossary Annex I country and Annex B country: Countries from the UNFCCC’s Annex I are made up of developed countries and countries in transition to a market economy. With some minor differences, they are the countries from Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol, which aims to establish binding quantified commitments. Anthropogenic: Relating to human activities (industry, agriculture, etc.). CO2 equivalence (CO2e) : Method of measuring greenhouse gases based on the war- ming effect of each gas relative to that of CO2. Emissions allowance: Accounting unit of the trading system. Represents one tonne of CO2. ETS : Emissions Trading System. Fossil fuel reserves : Quantities of gas, oil and coal recoverable from known reservoirs with the existing technologies and economic conditions. GDP: Gross Domestic Product. Measure of the wealth generated by country over a given period. Measured in purchasing power parity (PPP), it allows for meaningful comparisons between countries. GHG: Greenhouse gases: gaseous components of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, which absorb and re-emit infrared radiation. GWP : Global warming potential. It allows a comparison to be made of the contributions of different greenhouse gases to global warming for a given period. The period chosen is usually 100 years but is sometimes taken at 20 years to better estimate the short-term effect of some gases. iNDC : intended Nationally Determined Contributions. iNDCs describe national policies planned against climate change. It can include adaptation or attenuation objectives. International bunkers: Emissions from international aviation and maritime transport. IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Research group led by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, responsible for reviewing scientific research on climate change. LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry. Scenario Baseline 2007 : This scenario prepared by the Technical University of Athens proposes projections of the EU energy system until 2030. It takes into account policies implemented by members States until the end of 2006. Solid fuels : Coal and its derivatives. Emissions from the transformation of solid fuels are mainly made of emissions from coke production toe: Tonne of oil equivalent. Unit of measure for energy. UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 75 part 5: Climate policies
Useful websites
ADEME - (Agence de l’Environnement et de la Maîtrise d’Énergie – French Environmental and Energy Management Agency...... www.ademe.fr EEA - European Environment Agency...... www.eea.europa.eu IEA - International Energy Agency...... www.iea.org UNFCCC - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change...... ttp://unfccc.int I4CE - Institute for Climate Economics...... ww.i4ce.org Chaire Économie du Climat - CDC Climat & Université Paris-Dauphine...... ww.chaireeconomieduclimat.org CITEPA - Interprofessional Technical Centre for Studies on Air Pollution...... ww.citepa.org European Commission...... http://ec.europa.eu CITL - Community International Transaction Log...... http://ec.europa.eu/environment/ets Directorate-General for Climate Action...... http://ec.europa.eu/clima Drias les futurs du climat - Météo-France, IPSL, CERFACS...... www.drias-climat.fr IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change...... www.ipcc.ch MEEM - French Ministry of Environment, Energy and the Sea...... www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr General Directorate for Sustainable Development – SOeS...... www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr General Directorate for Energy and Climate...... www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/energie NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration...... www.noaa.gov UNEP DTU...... www.unepdtu.org Adaptation to global warming in France - Observatoire national sur les effets du réchauffement climatique...... www.onerc.gouv.fr Université Paris-Dauphine - CGEMP Centre of Geopolitics of Energy and Raw Materials...... www.cgemp.dauphine.fr WRI - World Resources Institute...... www.wri.org
76 – Key figures on climate- France and Worldwide General Terms of Use Any reproduction or representation, complete or partial, made without the consent from the editor or from the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (3, rue Hautefeuille — 75006 Paris), would be illegal and would constitute an infringement. Are only allowed copies or reproductions strictly reserved for a private use and not intended for a collective use and also abstracts and short citations for the purpose of example or illustration. (loi du 1er juillet 1992 — art. L.122-4 et L.122-5 et Code pénal art. 425).
Legal deposit: October 2016 Publication Director: Sylvain Moreau ISSN: in the process of being issued Editor-in-chief: Anne Bottin Printed in November 2016 by Bialec (Nancy) Editorial coordination: Mathieu Ecoiffier with paper from sustainably managed forests Design and layout: Guillaume Hiblot
Key figures on climate - France and Worldwide – 77 This publication, through its structure and choice of topics, aims to inform as wide a readership as possible about climate change, its mechanisms, causes and effects, as well as the measures that have been implemented to limit it, on an international, European and French scales. In particular, it gives detailed statistics on greenhouse gas emissions in the world, in Europe and in France.
Key figures on climate France and Worldwide
commissariat général au développement durable Commissariat général au développement durable - SOeS Tour Séquoia - 92055 La Défense Cedex Contact : [email protected] Direction générale de l’énergie et du climat - SCEE Tour Séquoia - 92055 La Défense Cedex Contact : [email protected] I4CE - Institute for Climate Economics 24 avenue Marceau - 75008 Paris Contact : [email protected] www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr