Soft Power and Hard Power: an Assessment of Obama's
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Volume XV, Issue 1 February 2021 PERSPECTIVES on TERRORISM Volume 15, Issue 1
ISSN 2334-3745 Volume XV, Issue 1 February 2021 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 15, Issue 1 Table of Content Welcome from the Editors...............................................................................................................................1 Articles Bringing Religiosity Back In: Critical Reflection on the Explanation of Western Homegrown Religious Terrorism (Part I)............................................................................................................................................2 by Lorne L. Dawson Dying to Live: The “Love to Death” Narrative Driving the Taliban’s Suicide Bombings............................17 by Atal Ahmadzai The Use of Bay’ah by the Main Salafi-Jihadist Groups..................................................................................39 by Carlos Igualada and Javier Yagüe Counter-Terrorism in the Philippines: Review of Key Issues.......................................................................49 by Ronald U. Mendoza, Rommel Jude G. Ong and Dion Lorenz L. Romano Variations on a Theme? Comparing 4chan, 8kun, and other chans’ Far-right “/pol” Boards....................65 by Stephane J. Baele, Lewys Brace, and Travis G. Coan Research Notes Climate Change—Terrorism Nexus? A Preliminary Review/Analysis of the Literature...................................81 by Jeremiah O. Asaka Inventory of 200+ Institutions and Centres in the Field of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism Research.....93 by Reinier Bergema and Olivia Kearney Resources Counterterrorism Bookshelf: Eight Books -
Strange Victory: a Critical Appraisal of Operation Enduring Freedom and the Afghanistan War
30 JANUARY 2002 RESEARCH MONOGRAPH #6 Strange Victory: A critical appraisal of Operation Enduring Freedom and the Afghanistan war Carl Conetta PROJECT ON DEFENSE ALTERNATIVES COMMONWEALTH INSTITUTE, CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS Contents Introduction 3 1. What has Operation Enduring Freedom accomplished? 4 1.1 The fruits of victory 4 1.1.1 Secondary goals 5 1.2 The costs of the war 6 1.2.1 The humanitarian cost of the war 7 1.2.2 Stability costs 7 2. Avoidable costs: the road not taken 9 3. War in search of a strategy 10 3.1 The Taliban become the target 10 3.2 Initial war strategy: split the Taliban 12 3.2.1 Romancing the Taliban 13 3.2.2 Pakistan: between the devil and the red, white, and blue 14 3.3 The first phase of the air campaign: a lever without a fulcrum 15 3.3.1 Strategic bombardment: alienating hearts and minds 15 3.4 A shift in strategy -- unleashing the dogs of war 17 4. A theater redefined 18 4.1 Reshuffling Afghanistan 19 4.2 Regional winners and losers 20 4.3 The structure of post-war Afghan instability 21 4.3.1 The Bonn agreement: nation-building or “cut and paste”? 22 4.3.2 Peacekeepers for Afghanistan: too little, too late 24 4.4 A new game: US and Afghan interests diverge 25 4.4.1 A failure to adjust 26 5. The tunnel at the end of the light 28 5.1 The path charted by Enduring Freedom 28 5.2 The triumph of expediency 29 5.3 The ascendancy of Defense 29 5.4 Realism redux 31 5.5 Bread and bombs 32 5.6 The fog of peace 34 Appendix 1. -
Produced by the Human Security Centre Lead Author
1 Human Security Centre – Written evidence (AFG0019) Produced by the Human Security Centre Lead Author: Simon Schofield, Senior Fellow, In consultation with Rohullah Yakobi, Associate Fellow 2 1 Table of Contents 2. Executive Summary .............................................................................5 3. What is the Human Security Centre?.....................................................10 4. Geopolitics and National Interests and Agendas......................................11 Islamic Republic of Pakistan ...................................................................11 Historical Context...............................................................................11 Pakistan’s Strategy.............................................................................12 Support for the Taliban .......................................................................13 Afghanistan as a terrorist training camp ................................................16 Role of military aid .............................................................................17 Economic interests .............................................................................19 Conclusion – Pakistan .........................................................................19 Islamic Republic of Iran .........................................................................20 Historical context ...............................................................................20 Iranian Strategy ................................................................................23 -
March 2020 MLM
VOLUME XI, ISSUE 3, MARCH 2020 THE JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION The Past as Escape from The GNA’s Latest Defection: A Precedent: Is Pakistan: TTP Profile of the AQAP’s New the Taliban’s Spokesperson Tripoli Emir: Who is Military Chief Militiaman- Ehsan ullah Khalid Batarfi? Sirajuddin Turned-Diplomat BRIEF Ehsan Fled Mohamed Shaeban Haqqani Ready from Custody ‘al-Mirdas’ for Peace? LUDOVICO SUDHA JOHN FOULKES FARHAN ZAHID DARIO CRISTIANI CARLINO RAMACHANDRAN VOLUME XI, ISSUE 3 | MARCH 2020 Bashir Qorgab—al-Shabaab Veteran al-Shabaab (Radio Muqdisho, March 7; Commander Killed in U.S. Airstrike Jerusalem Post, March 8). John Foulkes Qorgab was born sometime between 1979 and 1982, and was a senior al-Shabaab leader for On February 22, an airstrike carried out by U.S. over a decade, having been one of ten members Africa Command killed a senior al-Shabaab of al-Shabaab’s executive council, as of 2008. leader, Bashir Mohamed Mahamoud (a.k.a. On April 13, 2010, the United States placed Bashir Qorgab) (Radio Muqdisho, March 7). As Qorgab on the list of specially designated global a senior operational commander in the Somali terrorists. The U.S. State Department’s Reward militant group, Qorgab is believed to have been for Justice program offered $5 million for involved in the planning of the attack on the information that led to his arrest in June 2012, military base Camp Simba and its Manda Bay pointing to the fact that he led a mortar attack airstrip used by U.S. and Kenyan forces. The against the then-Transitional Federal attack killed one U.S. -
The Coils of the Anaconda: America's
THE COILS OF THE ANACONDA: AMERICA’S FIRST CONVENTIONAL BATTLE IN AFGHANISTAN BY C2009 Lester W. Grau Submitted to the graduate degree program in Military History and the Graduate Faculty of the University of Kansas in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy ____________________________ Dr. Theodore A Wilson, Chairperson ____________________________ Dr. James J. Willbanks, Committee Member ____________________________ Dr. Robert F. Baumann, Committee Member ____________________________ Dr. Maria Carlson, Committee Member ____________________________ Dr. Jacob W. Kipp, Committee Member Date defended: April 27, 2009 The Dissertation Committee for Lester W. Grau certifies that this is the approved version of the following dissertation: THE COILS OF THE ANACONDA: AMERICA’S FIRST CONVENTIONAL BATTLE IN AFGHANISTAN Committee: ____________________________ Dr. Theodore A Wilson, Chairperson ____________________________ Dr. James J. Willbanks, Committee Member ____________________________ Dr. Robert F. Baumann, Committee Member ____________________________ Dr. Maria Carlson, Committee Member ____________________________ Dr. Jacob W. Kipp, Committee Member Date approved: April 27, 2009 ii PREFACE Generals have often been reproached with preparing for the last war instead of for the next–an easy gibe when their fellow-countrymen and their political leaders, too frequently, have prepared for no war at all. Preparation for war is an expensive, burdensome business, yet there is one important part of it that costs little–study. However changed and strange the new conditions of war may be, not only generals, but politicians and ordinary citizens, may find there is much to be learned from the past that can be applied to the future and, in their search for it, that some campaigns have more than others foreshadowed the coming pattern of modern war.1 — Field Marshall Viscount William Slim. -
Summary of Information on Jihadist Websites the First Half of August 2015
ICT Jihadi Monitoring Group PERIODIC REVIEW Bimonthly Report Summary of Information on Jihadist Websites The First Half of August 2015 International Institute for Counter Terrorism (ICT) Additional resources are available on the ICT Website: www.ict.org.il This report summarizes notable events discussed on jihadist Web forums during the first half of August 2015. Following are the main points covered in the report: Following a one-year absence, Sheikh Ayman al-Zawahiri re-emerges in the media in order to give a eulogy in memory of Mullah Omar, the leader of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, and to swear allegiance to its new leader, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor. Al-Zawahiri vows to work to apply shari’a and continue to wage jihad until the release of all Muslim occupied lands. In addition, he emphasized that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is the only legitimate emirate. The next day, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor announces that he accepted al- Zawahiri’s oath of allegiance. In addition, various Al-Qaeda branches and jihadist organizations that support Al-Qaeda gave eulogies in memory of Mullah Omar. Hamza bin Laden, the son of former Al-Qaeda leader, Osama bin Laden, renews his oath of allegiance to the leader of the Taliban in Afghanistan, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and praises the leaders of Al-Qaeda branches for fulfilling the commandment to wage jihad against the enemies of Islam. In reference to the arena of jihad in Syria, he recommends avoiding internal struggles among the mujahideen in Syria and he calls for the liberation of Al-Aqsa Mosque from the Jews. -
Appendix C: Military Operations and Planning Scenarios Referred to in This Report
Appendix C: Military Operations and Planning Scenarios Referred to in This Report In describing the past and planned use of various types conducted on the territory of North Vietnam during of forces, this primer mentions a number of military the war (as opposed to air operations in South Vietnam, operations that the United States has engaged in since which were essentially continuous in support of U.S. World War II, as well as a number of scenarios that and South Vietnamese ground forces). The most nota- the Department of Defense has used to plan for future ble campaigns included Operations Rolling Thunder, conflicts. Those operations and planning scenarios are Linebacker, and Linebacker II. summarized below. 1972: Easter Offensive.This offensive, launched by Military Operations North Vietnamese ground forces, was largely defeated 1950–1953: Korean War. U.S. forces defended South by South Vietnamese ground forces along with heavy air Korea (the Republic of Korea) from an invasion by support from U.S. forces. North Korea (the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea). North Korean forces initially came close to 1975: Spring Offensive.This was the final offensive overrunning the entire Korean Peninsula before being launched by North Vietnamese ground forces during the pushed back. Later, military units from China (the war. Unlike in the Easter Offensive, the United States People’s Republic of China) intervened when U.S. forces did not provide air support to South Vietnamese ground approached the Chinese border. That intervention caused forces, and North Vietnamese forces fully conquered the conflict to devolve into a stalemate at the location of South Vietnam. -
Principles of Modern American Counterinsurgency: Evolution And
Terrain, Tribes, and Terrorists: Pakistan, 2006-20081 By David J. Kilcullen, Partner, The Crumpton Group LLC Brookings Counterinsurgency and Pakistan Paper Series. No. 3. “The two main factors for you will be the terrain and the tribes. You have to know their game and learn to play it, which means you first have to understand their environment,” Professor Akbar Ahmed told me in May 2006. In the field, with military and civilian teams and local people in locations across Afghanistan and Pakistan at various times through the next three years, the wisdom of Professor Ahmed’s insight came home to me again and again. The fact is that the terrain and the tribes drive ninety percent of what happens on the Frontier, while the third factor, which accounts for the other ten percent, is the presence of transnational terrorists and our reaction to them. But things seem very different in Washington or London from how they seem in Peshawar, let alone in Bajaur, Khyber or Waziristan—in that great tangle of dust-colored ridges known as the Safed Koh, or “white mountains”. This is a southern limb of the Hindu Kush, the vast range that separates Afghanistan (which lies on the immense Iranian Plateau that stretches all the way to the Arabian Gulf) from the valley of the Indus, the northern geographical limit of the Indian subcontinent. The young Winston Churchill, campaigning here in 1897, wrote that “all along the Afghan border every man’s house is his castle. The villages are the fortifications, the fortifications are the villages. Every house is loopholed, and whether it has a tower or not depends only on its owner’s wealth.”2 “All the world was going ghaza” Churchill was describing the operations of the Malakand Field Force around the village of Damadola, in Bajaur Agency, during the Great Frontier War of 1897— a tribal uprising inspired and exploited by religious leaders who co-opted local tribes’ opposition to the encroachment of government authority (an alien and infidel presence) into their region. -
Al Qaeda 2020 Website.Indd
AL QAEDA Quick Facts Geographical Areas of Operation: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, North Africa, and Somalia Numerical Strength (Members): Exact numbers unknown Leadership: Ayman al-Zawahiri Religious Identification:Sunni Islam Quick Facts State Department’s Country Reports on Terrorism (2019) INTRODUCTION Born out of the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan during the Cold War, Al Qaeda would grow over the ensuing decades to become one of the most prolific and consequential global terror groups to ever exist. Its mission – to form a global movement of Islamic sharia governance rooted in Wahhabi and Ikhwani religious philosophies and to wage war against the United States and its allies – has taken the cellular organization to South and Central Asia, North and Sub-Saharan Africa, North America, the South Pacific, and Europe. The organization has killed thousands of people, and instigated a now-decades old war with the events of September 11, 2001. In contrast to its ideological progeny and current rival, the Islamic State (IS), Al Qaeda tries to blend in with the societies it eventually seeks to politically co-opt. This has led to the formation of several satellite organizations, each of which operate at various capacities and different capabilities. After a period of relative inactivity on the global jihad stage, Al Qaeda is now seemingly reemerging. The 2020 assassination of U.S. Navy servicemembers in Pensacola, Florida, the fall of the Islamic State’s physical caliphate, and continued activity in both Afghanistan and North Africa all signal the group’s continued viability, as well as its ongoing desire to reclaim the mantle of the world’s preeminent Islamist extremist organization. -
Lucy Morgan Edwards to the University of Exeter As a Thesis for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Politics by Publication, in March 2015
Western support to warlords in Afghanistan from 2001 - 2014 and its effect on Political Legitimacy Submitted by Lucy Morgan Edwards to the University of Exeter as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Politics by Publication, in March 2015 This thesis is available for Library use on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. I certifythat all the material in this thesis which is not my own work has been identified and that no material has previously been submitted or approved for the award of a degree by this or any other University. !tu ?"\J�� Signature. ... .......................L�Uv) ......... ...!} (/......................., ................................................ 0 1 ABSTRACT This is an integrative paper aiming to encapsulate the themes of my previously published work upon which this PhD is being assessed. This work; encompassing several papers and various chapters of my book are attached behind this essay. The research question, examines the effect of Western support to warlords on political legitimacy in the post 9/11 Afghan war. I contextualise the research question in terms of my critical engagement with the literature of strategists in Afghanistan during this time. Subsequently, I draw out themes in relation to the available literature on warlords, politics and security in Afghanistan. I highlight the value of thinking about these questions conceptually in terms of legitimacy. I then introduce the published work, summarising the focus of each paper or book chapter. Later, a ‘findings’ section addresses how the policy of supporting warlords has affected legitimacy through its impact on security and stability, the political settlement and ultimately whether Afghans choose to accept the Western-backed project in Afghanistan, or not. -
The Afghanistan Question and the Reset in US-Russian Relations
The Afghanistan Question and the Reset in U.S.-Russian Relations Richard J. Krickus J. Richard Relations U.S.-Russian and Resetthe in Question Afghanistan The etortThe LPapers THE AFGHANISTAN QUESTION AND THE RESET IN U.S.-RUSSIAN RELATIONS U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Richard J. Krickus Visit our website for other free publication downloads http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/ To rate this publication click here. U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Strategic Studies Institute U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA The Letort Papers In the early 18th century, James Letort, an explorer and fur trader, was instrumental in opening up the Cumberland Valley to settlement. By 1752, there was a garrison on Letort Creek at what is today Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. In those days, Carlisle Barracks lay at the western edge of the American colonies. It was a bastion for the protection of settlers and a departure point for further exploration. Today, as was the case over two centuries ago, Carlisle Barracks, as the home of the U.S. Army War College, is a place of transition and transformation. In the same spirit of bold curiosity that compelled the men and women who, like Letort, settled the American West, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) presents The Letort Papers. This series allows SSI to publish papers, retrospectives, speeches, or essays of interest to the defense academic community which may not correspond with our mainstream policy-oriented publications. If you think you may have a subject amenable to publication in our Letort Paper series, or if you wish to comment on a particular paper, please contact Dr. -
ISIS in Yemen: Redoubt Or Remnant? Challenges and Options for Dealing with a Jihadist Threat in a Conflict Environment
JOURNAL OF SOUTH ASIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES ISIS in Yemen: Redoubt or Remnant? Challenges and Options for Dealing with a Jihadist Threat in a Conflict Environment by NORMAN CIGAR Abstract: The emergence of ISIS has represented a significant security risk to U.S. interests and to regional states. In Yemen, the ISIS threat has evolved within Occasional Paper #1 the country’s devastating civil war and, while its lethality has declined, this study Villanova University suggests it remains a factor of concern, Villanova, PA and assesses the challenges and options available for the US and for the November 2020 international community for dealing with this threat. ISIS in Yemen: Redoubt or Remnant? Challenges and Options for Dealing with a Jihadist Threat in a Conflict Environment by Norman Cigar “The fight against terrorism is far from over” Leon E. Panetta, Former Director CIA, 25 August 20191 Introduction and Terms of Reference Even in its short history, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has posed a significant security challenge both to U.S. interests and to regional states. As the ISIS Caliphate disintegrated recently in its heartland of Iraq and Syria under a succession of blows by its international and local adversaries, the focus of the international community often shifted to ISIS’s outlying branches. However, contrary to early optimism, ISIS has proved a stubborn survivor even in its Iraq-Syria core, while its presence in branches or affiliates in areas such as the Sinai, the Sahara, West Africa, Mozambique, Yemen, and Khurasan (Afghanistan/Pakistan) also continues to be a significant security threat to local and international interests.2 Moreover, each theater of operations presents a unique set of characteristics, complicating the fight against such local ISIS branches.