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Exploring Reserve Management Strategies Post-Crisis Choices for Central Banks

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Exploring Reserve Management Strategies Post-Crisis Choices for Central Banks May 2018 Vol.9 Ed.5 Joachim Wuermeling on central bank reserve strategies Kat Usita on Indonesian infrastructure Gary Smith on China’s Treasury holdings Otaviano Canuto on Fed balance sheet unwinding Alexander Petrov on Bank of Japan ETF quandary Mark Branson on regulating cryptocurrencies Exploring reserve management strategies Post-crisis choices for central banks BTN_05.18_001_cover .indd 1 30/04/2018 10:02 The investment manager focused on what matters to you. With your investments fuelled by expertise, experience and a unique perspective. That’s Schroders. We have changed to ensure we remain who we have always been: still with the same strong values and pride in our heritage; still trusted; still connected; still Schroders. Please remember that capital is at risk. Marketing material for professional investors and advisers only. Issued in April 2018 by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London, EC2V 7QA. Registered No. 1893220 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. SCH56103. SCH56103Untitled-2 1OMFIF advert 260x210mm.indd 1 12/04/201827/04/2018 11:5914:36 Contents May 2018. Vol.9 Ed.5 8 4 ABOUT OMFIF Worldview 5 LEADER 18 WOMEN LEAD UK 6 REVIEW / AGENDA EMPLOYMENT BOOM Matteo Richiardi, Brian Nolan and Filippo Cover: Exploring reserve Cartiglia management strategies 19 INDONESIA TARGETS 10 RESISTING TEMPTATIONS INNOVATIVE FUNDING Joachim Wuermeling Kat Usita 11 LOWERING FED BALANCE SHEET 20 THE GEOGRAPHY 6 OF MONEY Otaviano Canuto Ousmène Jacques Mandeng 21 REGULATORS FACE UP TO CRYPTOMANIA Mark Branson Moscow 22 FED NOMINEES FOCUS Rotterdam Duisburg Almaty ON INFLATION Huoerguosi 20 Venice Bishkek Urumql Darrell Delamaide Istanbul Samarkand Athens Dushanbe Lanzhou Xi’an Tehran Fuzhou Beihai Kolkata Quanzhou Hanoi Guangzhou Inquiry Zhanjiang Haikou 23 CHART OF THE MONTH: Colombo Kuala Lumpur INDIA’S STRONGER Nairobi CURRENCY THREATENS Jakarta 12 Silk Road Economic Belt GROWTH Maritime Silk Road 23 BOOKS: EURO’S ROOTS IN 1968 PARIS REVOLT Roel Janssen 12 CHINA PLAYS THE LONG CHESS 26 OMFIF ADVISERS GAME NETWORK POLL Gary Smith Facebook faces struggle to repair user faith 14 BANK OF JAPAN FACES ETF QUANDARY Alexander Petrov 15 FLEXIBILITY IN ALLOCATION Cover illustration: STRATEGY Eugene and Louise Ben Robinson 23 OMFIF.ORG MAY 2018 BULLETIN 3 About OMFIF Dialogue on world finance and economic policy Africa THE Offi cial Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum is an independent think tank for central banking, economic policy and public investment – a non-lobbying network for best practice in awaits worldwide public-private sector exchanges. At its heart are Global Public Investors – central banks, sovereign funds and public pension funds – with investable assets of $33.8tn, equivalent to 45% of world GDP. With offi ces in London and Singapore, OMFIF focuses on global policy and investment themes – Asset and risk particularly in asset management, capital markets and fi nancial supervision/regulation – relating to central banks, sovereign funds, pension funds, regulators and treasuries. OMFIF promotes higher management standards, performance-enhancing public-private sector exchanges and a better understanding of forum the world economy, in an atmosphere of mutual trust. OMFIF, the South African Reserve Bank and the World Bank Membership Treasury’s Reserves Advisory Membership offers insight through two complementary channels – Analysis and Management Program and Meetings – where members play a prominent role in shaping the (RAMP), convene public sector agenda. For more information about OMFIF membership, advertising or asset managers, as well as select subscriptions contact membership@omfi f.org private market participants, over two days. The Forum focuses on Analysis governance, macroeconomic and OMFIF Analysis includes commentaries, charts, reports, summaries of fi nancial developments, as well as meetings and The Bulletin. Contributors include in-house experts, advisers the challenges and opportunities network members and representatives of member institutions and academic for public sector investment and offi cial bodies. To submit an article for consideration contact the editorial managers. The aim is to discuss team at analysis@omfi f.org best practices and offer an avenue for an interactive dialogue. Venue: South Africa Reserve Meetings Bank, Pretoria OMFIF Meetings take place within central banks and other offi cial Date: 14-15 June 2018 institutions and are held under OMFIF Rules. A full list of past and For more information or to forthcoming meetings is available on www.omfi f.org/meetings. For more register your interest, please information contact meetings@omfi f.org visit omfi f.org/meetings OMFIF Advisers Network The 178-strong OMFIF advisers network, chaired by Meghnad Desai, is made up of experts from around the world representing a range of sectors: monetary policy; political economy; capital markets; and industry and investment. They support the work of OMFIF in a variety of ways, including contributions to the monthly Bulletin, regular Commentaries, seminars and other OMFIF activities. Membership changes annually owing to rotation. OMFIF.ORG BTN_05.18_004-005_About_Leader (copy tc).indd 4 30/04/2018 11:41 Leader Offi cial Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum Exploring reserve 30 Crown Place, London, EC2A 4EB United Kingdom T: +44 (0)20 3008 5262 F: +44 (0)20 7965 4489 management strategies www.omfi f.org @OMFIF fter declining gradually since 2014, central bank reserves have begun to BOARD recover. For the fi rst time since OMFIF started tracking the assets under David Marsh, Chairman A Jai Arya management of global public investors, central bank assets expanded, and did Pooma Kimis so at a pace of 8%. This trend was relatively broad-based: only Middle Eastern Edward Longhurst-Pierce central banks’ assets declined on average. Phil Middleton Mthuli Ncube The People’s Bank of China played a leading role, increasing its reserves John Nugée by more than $100bn. Against the backdrop of a trade dispute with the US, John Plender Chinese offi cials will have to balance diffi cult issues as they shape their Lauren Roberts Peter Wilkin future strategy, particularly in relation to their signifi cant holdings of US Treasuries, as Gary Smith argues in this month’s cover story. ADVISORY COUNCIL Meghnad Desai, Chairman Other types of public investors, sovereign funds and public pension funds, Johannes Witteveen, Honorary Chairman also increased their assets, according to this year’s Global Public Investor Louis de Montpellier, Deputy Chairman report. Norway’s Norges Bank Investment Management, the world’s largest Frank Scheidig, Deputy Chairman Xiang Songzuo, Deputy Chairman sovereign fund, led the charge. OMFIF will be launching the full fi ndings of Hani Kablawi, Deputy Chairman this research on 23 May in London. Gary Smith, Deputy Chairman While reserves grow, the strategies for managing them are becoming Otaviano Canuto, Aslihan Gedik, Robert Johnson,William Keegan, trickier. Encouraged by a low bond yield environment, public investors are John Kornblum, Norman Lamont, increasingly tempted to diversify away from traditional allocation strategies Kingsley Moghalu, Fabrizio Saccomanni, focused on fi xed income and expand into a wider range of assets. There has Niels Thygesen, Ted Truman, Marsha Vande Berg, Ben Shenglin, Chair, been a particularly strong shift from sovereign funds and public pension OMFIF Economists Network funds into real estate and infrastructure assets, as documented in a report EDITORIAL TEAM prepared by OMFIF and BNY Mellon, which will be launched next month. Danae Kyriakopoulou, Head of Research Central banks, however, remain broadly conservative. As Joachim Simon Hadley, Production Manager Wuermeling, executive board member at the Deutsche Bundesbank, Julian Frazer, Subeditor Jearelle Wolhuter, Subeditor argues, security and liquidity remain important criteria for defi ning Ben Robinson, Senior Economist reserve allocation strategies. While some of the factors infl uencing the Bhavin Patel, Economist macroeconomic landscape are slowly reversing, others are more structural. Kat Usita, Economist William Coningsby-Brown, Editorial Assistant Weak demographics, slow productivity growth and persistently low long-term Darrell Delamaide, US Editor interest rates will continue to determine the overall framework MARKETING Chris Ostrowski, Head, Business Development within which public investors Sarah Butler, Deputy Head of Development pursue their asset management James Fitzgerald, Senior Marketing Executive strategies. Strictly no photocopying is permitted. It is illegal to reproduce, store in a central retrieval system or transmit, electronically or otherwise, any of the content of this publication without the prior consent of the publisher. While every care is taken to provide accurate information, the publisher cannot accept liability for any errors or omissions. No responsibility will be accepted for any loss occurred by any individual due to acting or not acting as a result of any content in this publication. On any specifi c matter reference should be made to an appropriate adviser. Danae Kyriakopoulou Chief Economist and Head of Research Company Number: 7032533. ISSN: 2398-4236 OMFIF.ORG MAY 2018 BULLETIN 5 BTN_05.18_004-005_About_Leader (copy tc).indd 5 30/04/2018 11:41 Review »24 April, London ECB must not be ‘only game in town’ GERMANY and other euro members should press on with reinforcing monetary union, including setting up a European Monetary
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