Conversations with Werner J.A. Dahm Critical times for India’s space program scramsintothefuture

2010

APUBLICATIONOFTHEAMERICANINSTITUTEOFAERONAUTICSANDASTRONAUTICS X-51 October

Cover-1010X.qxd:AA Template 9/16/10 1 Page AM 10:59 9 AEROSPACE AMERICA OCTOBER 2010 “My uncle is a bush pilot in Alaska. When I was in 7th grade, he was flying a float plane and let me take off. I have loved flying and engineering ever since.”

2nd Lt., Sheppard AFB; Aeronautical Engineering, U.S. Air Force Academy

Share the Inspiration In fascinating new videos, AIAA members recrecall the moment when aerospacerospace capturedcaptur their imagination. Share your story too, aand spread the passionon for aerospaaerospace.

www.aiaa.org/MyStory

09-0124finalv4.indd 1 1/22/09 2:54:54 PM toc.OCT2010.qxd:AA Template 9/16/10 10:48 AM Page 1

October 2010

DEPARTMENTS EDITORIAL 3 A good first step. Page 4

INTERNATIONAL BEAT 4 Europe charts path to sixth-generation fighter.

WASHINGTON WATCH 8 Outlasting the opposition.

CONVERSATIONS 10 With Werner J.A. Dahm.

AIRCRAFT UPDATE 14 Page 8 Jetliners: Bright spot in the world economy.

THE VIEW FROM HERE 18 Ad astra: The future of NASA’s astronaut corps.

SPACE UPDATE 22 Space launches spike upward.

OUT OF THE PAST 44

CAREER OPPORTUNITIES 46 Page 22

FEATURES Page18 X-51 SCRAMS INTO THE FUTURE 26 The first flight test of the X-51A marks a milestone on the long road to achieving practical hypersonic flight. by Mark Lewis

CRITICAL TIMES FOR INDIA’S SPACE PROGRAM 34 Despite a recent launch failure, India is forging ahead with plans to develop its own heavy-lift launch technology and manned spaceflight capability. by Philip Butterworth-Hayes

CONTROLLING LAUNCH VEHICLE LIFE-CYCLE COSTS 40 New suborbital vehicles could bring a wealth of data from the edge of space, but tight budgets threaten NASA research in this vital region. by John W.Robinson

BULLETIN AIAA Meeting Schedule B2 AIAA Courses and Training Program B4 AIAA News B5 Page 34 Meeting Program B15 Calls for Papers B21 Page 40 COVER On May 26 an X-51AWaveRider,lofted by a converted B-52,took off on a historic flight,reaching speeds greater than Mach 5.To learn about this remarkable test flight,and the scramjet engine,turn to the story on page 26.

Aerospace America (ISSN 0740-722X) is published monthly, except August, by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. at 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, Va. 20191-4344 [703/264-7500]. Subscription rate is 50% of dues for AIAA members (and is not deductible therefrom). Nonmember subscription price: U.S. and Canada, $163, foreign, $200. Single copies $20 each. Postmaster: Send address changes and subscription orders to address above, attention AIAA Customer Service, 703/264-7500. Periodical postage paid at Herndon, VA, and at additional mailing offices. Copyright © 2010 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., all rights reserved. The name Aerospace America is registered by the AIAA in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. 40,000 copies of this issue printed. This is Volume 48, No. 9. Engineers as Educators Workshop

Co-located with the 49th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting Thursday, 6 January 1930–2200 hrs Orlando, Florida When he pulls that rip cord, what is on his mind?

Calculations about acceleration, speed, load capacity, and gravity? Probably not. To you, the aerospace professional, these calculations are elementary. But to the elementary student, parachuting is ‘AWESOME’ but the formulas behind it are complicated. How can you bridge that gap? Make that leap. Pull that educator rip cord within you and share with students your knowledge as an aerospace professional. AIAA will teach you to inspire students about the marvels of aerospace engineering. Share your passion in a manner students can relate to. Register now for the Engineers as Educators Workshop and you’ll walk away armed with the tools to help you plan and execute powerful experiences and excite the next generation of engineers.

LEARN HOW TO: ☛ Connect your work to classroom objectives ☛ Plan memorable experiences ☛ Use simple and clear vocabulary ☛ Engage students with hands-on experiences • setting up a test fl ight line for gliders • straw rockets • parachutes • hot air balloons 10-0455

For more information contact Lisa Bacon at [email protected]. october edit.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 1:06 PM Page 1

®

is a publication of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

Elaine J. Camhi Editor-in-Chief Patricia Jefferson Associate Editor A good first step Greg Wilson Production Editor Jerry Grey, Editor-at-Large Christine Williams, Editor AIAA Bulletin On August 30, President Obama announced his plans for taking on the task of bringing some order to the unwieldy, irksome quagmire known as export con- Correspondents trols. While the executive order he issued will begin the process of enabling Robert F. Dorr, Washington Philip Butterworth-Hayes, Europe some international trade to get back on track, much of the reform will require Michael Westlake, Hong Kong congressional action. The president initiated the review of export control issues, and their im- Contributing Writers pact on foreign trade, about a year ago. His August address outlining the ad- Richard Aboulafia, James W. Canan, Marco Cáceres, Craig Covault, Philip ministration’s first steps toward reform should at least smooth out some of the Finnegan, Ed Flinn, Tom Jones, David bumps and curves U.S. corporations have encountered on the road to the Rockwell, Frank Sietzen, J.R. Wilson global marketplace, and perhaps even shorten the travel time. The first step—combining the U.S. Munitions List, under the purview of Fitzgerald Art & Design Art Direction and Design the State Department, and the Commerce Department’s Commercial Control List, which covers many dual use items—should eliminate some delays, as deci- Craig Byl, Manufacturing and Distribution sions as to where items fell were haggled over, sometimes for years. Instead, Mark Lewis, President there will be one tiered list, and “a single set of licensing policies that will apply Robert S. Dickman, Publisher to each tier of control” according to the announcement. The highest walls STEERING COMMITTEE would be built around those most sensitive items in the top tier, which would Michael B. Bragg, University of Illinois; receive the greatest scrutiny before the possible issuance of a license. A single Philip Hattis, Draper Laboratory; Mark S. set of licensing policies “will apply to each tier of control, bringing clarity and Maurice, AFOSR; Laura McGill, Raytheon; consistency across our system.” Merri Sanchez, National Aeronautics and The president also announced an executive order establishing a single Space Administration; Mary Snitch, Lock- Export Enforcement Coordination Center “to coordinate and strengthen our heed Martin; David W. Thompson, Orbital enforcement efforts—and eliminate gaps and duplication—across all relevant EDITORIAL BOARD departments and agencies.” Ned Allen, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics; Licenses will be managed by a single information technology system, Jean-Michel Contant, EADS; Eugene rather than the maze of different systems and documents currently in place. Covert, Massachusetts Institute of Technol- The address concludes with the promise of additional efforts, including ogy; L.S. “Skip” Fletcher, Texas A&M Uni- “working to create a single licensing agency”—the brass ring in the export versity; Michael Francis, United Technologies; merry-go-round. Christian Mari, Teuchos; Cam Martin, All of this represents progress in redressing some of the unintended eco- NASA Dryden; Don Richardson, Donrich Research; Douglas Yazell, Honeywell nomic harm that has resulted from efforts, beginning in the 1990s, to keep potentially damaging technology from falling into the hands of adversaries. ADVERTISING What emerged, however, was a maze of rules and regulations, compounded by National Display and Classified: agency turf wars, that made the export of almost anything with a technology Robert Silverstein, 240.498.9674 application a long, wearisome procedure. This prompted companies in other [email protected] nations to develop themselves items they once would have imported. “ITAR- West Coast Display: Greg Cruse, Free” became a marketing slogan in Europe and parts of Asia. 949.361.1870 / [email protected] Some of those markets may be lost forever; some may be recompeted if Send materials to Craig Byl, AIAA, 1801 this export control reform effort gains momentum. But a great deal of work Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500, Reston, VA remains to be done, and a good bit of it resides in the Congress. Decisions as 20191-4344. Changes of address should be to what items will remain on the munitions list, or the top tier, and which may sent to Customer Service at the same address, be removed must be reviewed by House and Senate committees. If those com- by e-mail at [email protected], or by fax at mittees continue to consider these changes by broad category, this new push 703.264.7606. may be for naught. Send Letters to the Editor to Elaine Camhi at the same address or [email protected] So, much work remains. But these initial efforts, eagerly awaited by indus- try, coupled with the recently created President’s Export Council, led by Boeing October 2010, Vol. 48, No.9 CEO Jim McNerney and Xerox CEO Ursula Burns, are a pretty good first step. Elaine Camhi Editor-in-Chief BEATlayout1010.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:25 PM Page 2

Europechartspathto sixth-generationfighter

AT THE FARNBOROUGH INTERNATIONAL AIR- tional sovereignty‘ to act in future world more closely with their neighbors on show in July, the European Defence events, we need to look beyond the im- complex future military aerospace pro- Agency (EDA) signed a $512,000 con- mediate financial turmoil and focus now grams. While the Eurofighter Typhoon tract with Sweden’s Saab group for a on what are the critical European de- project has delivered a fifth-generation study to map out Europe’s current mili- fense industrial capabilities needed to fighter through collaboration, it com- tary aerospace and industrial landscape, meet future military capability require- petes with other European combat air- identifying gaps where R&D projects will ments,” said Alexander Weis, EDA chief craft—the Saab Gripen and the Dassault be needed to provide Europe’s defense executive, speaking at Farnborough. Rafale. Europe’s military planners want forces with European-sourced aerospace It is important that, if the choices are just one European successor to these air- capabilities in the future. at all economically possible, European craft, and they want it without a pilot in That study, “The future of the Euro- Union member states retain the capabil- the cockpit. pean military aerospace Defence Tech- ity to source from the global market, For the FAS project to be successful, nological Industrial Base (DTIB—Mil- Weis continued. He warned, however, it will need to be fused at some stage Aerospace 2035+” (or “FAS4 Europe”), that “military-unique industrial capabili- with the European Technology Acquisi- will involve a consortium of Europe’s in- ties can be eliminated very quickly, and tion Program (ETAP), a 2001 initiative dustry and is due to be completed by Oc- whilst theoretically industrial capabilities by France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Swe- tober 2011. Although the value of the can be regenerated, this is normally un- den, and the U.K. to work together on contract is relatively small—and is over- realistic in both time scale and cost.” shadowed by the $47 billion worth of FAS4 Europe consortium members aircraft orders announced at the show— From national to continental Saab AB is the lead company and main its strategic importance to Europe’s The study is part of EDA’s European de- contractor of the program. Other consortium aerospace industry is immense. fense technological and industrial base members are: The EDA wants to develop a future (EDTIB) strategy, which seeks to develop ·Alenia Aeronautica SpA air system (FAS) that will not just support a continental, rather than a national, de- ·Association of the Aviation EU, national security, and defense poli- fense manufacturing and research indus- Manufacturers of the Czech Republic cies in the future but will also do so in a try in the face of growing competition ·ASG Luftfahrttechnik und Sensorik GmbH way that retains strategic aerospace and from the U.S. and Asia. ·BAE Systems defense know-how within the continent. For decades Europe’s defense de- ·Dassault Aviation “If we want to keep the capability to partments have been struggling with the ·EADS Construcciones manufacture key defense equipment in problem of how they can save money Aeronauticas, SAU Europe, thereby retaining the ‘opera- and access new technologies by working ·EADS Deutschland GmbH, Military ·ESD-Partners The U.K unveiled the Taranis UCAV in July. ·Hellenic Aerospace Industry SA ·Patria Aviation Oy ·SELEX Galileo Ltd. ·Thales Systemes Aeroportes SA ·Westland Helicopters Ltd. Additional participating stakeholders: ·Avio Spa ·ITP ·MTU Aero Engines ·Safran SA ·Volvo Aero AB ·Aerospace and Defence Industries Association of Europe ·DA Design Oy ·Diehl Aerospace GmbH ·Equipment Industrial Management Group ·GMV-SKYSOFT (GMV) ·Intracom Defense Electronics SA

4 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 BEATlayout1010.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:25 PM Page 3

developing the technologies needed for or SUAVE, group is responsible for a post-2020 future combat air system. developing the program. Although ETAP comprises a series of technology SUAVE is looking for partners in Eu- demonstration projects (TDPs) covering rope and the U.S. to cooperate on areas such as stealth, avionics, airframes, the project, the current plans are for and weapons guidance. The EDA has an autonomous U.K. UCAV to be been commissioned to undertake TDP deployed toward the end of the research into high-bandwidth datalink decade. In contrast, the nEUROn First flight of the nEUROn is expected in mid-2010. communications. UCAV, masterminded by France’s DGA defense procurement agency The future is unmanned with support from Sweden, Italy, Switzer- National governments, the EDA, The obstacles to creating a common Eu- land, Spain, and Greece, is due to make aerospace industries (via the ASD), and, ropean sixth-generation air combat ve- its first flight in mid-2012. most recently, the European Commis- hicle are substantial. Despite the EU’s European industry’s most recent re- sion have now been brought into debate best efforts to create a single EU foreign sponse to the problem is a report by the on what sort of future fighter/strike air- and security policy, there are still sub- AeroSpace and Defence Industries Asso- craft Europe needs—and how industry stantial differences among European ciation of Europe’s (ASD) Air Sectorial can deliver in terms of time, cost, and states in how they see their future role in Group (ASG). The report outlines the technology. But the process is not likely the world. For example, larger Euro- key capabilities for what it defines as Eu- to stop there. In February EDA and the pean nations with a global naval capabil- ropean future air power systems European Space Agency (ESA) signed a ity, planning to deploy new aircraft car- (EFAPS) and some of the key actions series of contracts covering the integra- riers, will view FAS very differently from that will be needed to deliver the appro- tion of UAS vehicles within civil air- the way small, land-locked European priate technologies. These include versa- space—initially covering civil applica- countries view it. The ideological fault tility, affordability, and the right mix of tions, but opening the door to more lines running through the continent legacy system performance versus new wide-ranging cooperative efforts. have been underlined by Europe’s fail- development. Says Magali Vaissiere, ESA’s director ure to develop a single, common un- These are high-level requirements, of telecommunications and integrated manned combat vehicle program, which but the ASG also highlights specific tech- applications, “This contract signature would provide many of the key tech- nologies that it identifies as areas where marks the first milestone on the com- nologies for FAS. Europe will need to cooperate more mon EDA-ESA journey and paves the In July, the U.K. Ministry of Defence closely—specifically, unmanned auton- road for future joint activities—extending, unveiled its Taranis UCAV (unmanned omous systems, novel weapons with key possibly, also to other areas such as mar- combat air vehicle). The ministry’s DE&S capabilities to cope with larger opera- itime security, and reaching at some (Defence Equipment and Support) strate- tional context, and new space or hyper- point in time a global dimension.” gic unmanned aerial vehicle experiment, sonic capabilities. (Continued on page 9)

Needed actions for developing EFAPS capabilities The ASD’s ASG has identified some of the necessary actions that govern- •Mature the requirements for the systems and reach commonality among ments and industry must undertake to ensure the continent’s aerospace the different nations. companies will be able to provide appropriate technologies for European •Provide necessary detail on the appropriate “national coordinated future air power systems (EFAPS). The key capabilities, according to the ASG, approach“ for EFAPS, such as alignment of future investments, identification will be: of common and unique national requirements, shareable/nonshareable •Network-enabled capability, or NEC, which will be essential to ensure capabilities, and the national sustainment and security of supply priorities. information exploitation and situational awareness. •Define the system design process that considers both the maturation of •Extensive use of multirole capabilities and commonality of subsystems. the solution and the flexibility toward late changes in the requirements. The •Longer reach and endurance to cope with broader operational scenarios. aspect of support and low life-cycle cost solutions must be considered a vital •Increased Interoperability within national air systems, between national part of the process and involve the industrial base. forces, and with civilian actors. •Establish the required industrial capabilities, both for the military •Increased survivability where appropriate. aerospace primes and for the supply chain, to meet future needs. Special •Increased reliability, maintainability, and sustainability to support the attention should be given to enabling technologies where Europe is currently customer along the extended life cycle. dependent on external sources, and to keeping the “cutting edge“ in capa- To realize these capabilities, government and industry must work together to: bilities where Europe has primacy. •Obtain the political support expressed in the EDTIB strategy and define •Define and develop a future joint management of the implementation near-term actions. The potential for civil and security exploitation of the capabilities of EFAPS. developed and sustained by this strategy should also be taken into account. •Create the new business models and harmonized commercial processes •Agree on the mechanisms for funding the actions identified within an that will be needed, from customers through prime contractors and into the EFAPS roadmap to enable the start of required initiatives. supply chain.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 5 WATCHlayout.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:23 PM Page 2

Outlasting the opposition

WITH CONGRESSINRECESS, NASA AND ets to carry astronauts back to the Moon money for commercial space compa- defense programs faced continued de- aboard a spacecraft called Orion. The nies. In fact, the measure seeks to mod- lays and uncertainties. Legal obstacles to White House insists the Obama plan has ify, rather than drop, Constellation’s canceling Constellation, closing military the eventual goal of sending expeditions over-budget, technically troubled smaller bases, and eliminating some DOD of- to the asteroids and Mars, bypassing the Ares I rocket. fices did not bode well for an early end to Moon, but has not spelled out how this Under the administration’s plan, the current holding pattern. will happen. NASA would proceed with Orion only Until new legislation is enacted, ele- on a much-reduced scale and only in a Unresolved plans for spaceflight ments of the old plan are alive, if not stripped-down version that astronauts The future of spaceflight for U.S. astro- thriving. Although NASA Headquarters would use as a lifeboat to escape the ISS nauts was left undefined as members of has banned the term Constellation in in an emergency. NASA held an August Congress headed home in late summer, correspondence, scientists at Huntsville, 19 event for 35 companies interested in leaving behind conflicting proposals for a Ala., and elsewhere are still working on building commercial spacecraft and NASA funding bill in the Senate and Ares I and Orion. On August 23, Lock- stressed that privately designed and de- House of Representatives. heed Martin announced the start of cru- veloped vehicles are the “new” way for Observers in Washington say that, on cial tests of the Orion crew capsule, the nation. Capitol Hill, even the strongest critics of which, said the company’s Larry Price, Nelson, the most visible space advo- President Barack Obama’s plan to priva- “is capable of supporting missions to cate on Capitol Hill, is clearly seeking tize spaceflight are searching for a com- LEO and beyond, to the Moon and deep compromise, and proposes legislation to promise, not a fight. But before Con- space.” A full-sized Orion intended to lift offer tax breaks for investors and com- gress and the White House can achieve astronauts from the launch pad is a hold- panies looking to develop commercial a meeting of minds on leaving behind over from the old plan. spacecraft. Nelson wants to create five the “old” Constellation program and Midway between the old and the new business enterprise zones around the ringing in the “new” commercial effort, is the Senate version of an FY11 NASA country in localities that already have legislation is needed: Currently NASA is appropriations bill that provides for de- NASA centers; qualified businesses in prohibited by law from canceling any velopment of an Ares V-type heavy-lift each Commercial Space Enterprise part of Constellation. And no one is ex- rocket. This is a compromise that would Zone would get a tax credit of 20-30%. pecting lawmakers to act until after the keep enough of the old to protect a lot The idea of federal funding for com- November 2 election at the earliest. of jobs, says Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), mercial spaceflight is a natural on the Until now, the government (through who sponsored the bill with Sen. Kay campaign trail. Gubernatorial candidate NASA) has overseen the design and de- Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas). NASA Dep- Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kansas) is pro- velopment of virtually all U.S. space- uty Administrator Lori Garver told re- moting the deep-rooted aerospace in- craft. Now, however, the Obama admin- porters the space agency is ready to be- dustry of Wichita as a logical place for istration wants commercial firms to gin work on the heavy-lift rocket if Con- enterprise-zone spending. Elsewhere construct privately built space vehicles. gress directs it to do so. around the country, elected leaders are Under the administration’s plan, NASA But the House version of the FY11 pushing their home localities. would cancel Constellation, which was appropriations measure does not include While Washington awaits a postelec- intended to build Ares I and Ares V rock- the heavy-lift rocket and provides far less tion sort-out of future spaceflight plans, the shuttle will not be going to pasture on October 1 as once expected. NASA Sen. Bill Nelson has delayed the two final shuttle missions by several months. The Senate’s pro- posed spending bill would add a third flight that might take place as late as June of next year.

Air Force changes On July 29, the Air Force—clearly antic- Sen. ipating belt-tightening measures by De- Sam Brownback fense Secretary Robert Gates—acted on

6 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 WATCHlayout.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:23 PM Page 3

its own to announce its largest shift of An Air Force MC-12W arrives at Balad Airbase in Iraq. airplanes and people in decades. “This will get us right-sized,” said a member of chief of staff Gen. Norton Schwartz’s of- fice. The changes affect 12,000 airmen and 680 aircraft, but not everyone sees much purpose to them. Gates has already halted develop- ment of a next-generation bomber, man- dated the retirement of 250 fighters that will not be replaced, and canceled a com- Secretary of Defense Robert Gates bat search and rescue helicopter. The only remaining large aircraft programs frames, now that Gates has halted fur- are the KC-X air-refueling tanker, which ther production of the superfighter. is unaffected by the changes, and the Holloman will pick up two F-16 train- F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter. ing squadrons. Considering the fanfare Because the gain or loss of an Air with which the F-22s arrived at Hollo- Force or Air National Guard squadron man as recently as June 2008, the F-16s affects jobs, the economy, and the pres- are very much a consolation prize. To tige of a locality, many in Washington make matters worse, Holloman was not analyzed the changes in terms of win- chosen as a base for the JSF. ners and losers. In that context the big Also turned down as F-35 bases, af- A B-1B Lancer flies a combat patrol over Afghanistan. loser was Holloman AFB, adjacent to ter making strong bids, were Tucson Air USAF photo/Staff Sgt. Aaron Allmon. Alamogordo, N.M. Holloman became Guard Station in Arizona; Boise Air host to an F-22 Raptor wing only re- Guard Station in Idaho; Mountain Home Beechcraft King Air 350-200. Two “fi- cently and to MQ-1B Predator and MQ- AFB near Boise; Shaw AFB near Sum- nalists” to host the C-27J Joint Cargo 9 Reaper remotely piloted aircraft even ter, South Carolina; and Jacksonville Air Aircraft are Key Field, Mississippi, and more recently. In fact, when the Preda- Guard Station, Florida. the Ohio Air National Guard’s Mansfield tors and Reapers came aboard, officials The big winners, thanks to the F-35, Lahm Regional Airport. These selections touted the “synergy” of high-tech RPAs are Luke AFB near Glendale, Arizona, were a blow to the Maryland Air Na- operating alongside the high-tech F-22. Burlington Air Guard Station in Ver- tional Guard base at Glenn L. Martin Air- The DOD spent $19.1 billion (according mont, and Hill AFB, Utah. All will be- port near Baltimore, which had hoped to to the Air Force), or $40 billion (say local come operators of the Air Force’s con- operate the C-27J and will lose a flying news reports), on building new infra- ventional takeoff and landing version, squadron that, until now, operated the structure to accommodate the Raptors. known as the F-35A. C-130J Hercules. Now, the Holloman wing’s two F-22 Unchanged is the role of Eglin AFB, squadrons are being taken away. One Fla., as the initial joint training base for Gates defense changes will transfer to Tyndall AFB, Fla. The JSF maintainers and pilots of the Air Gates has not imposed further changes other, which had not yet reached full Force, Marine Corps, and Navy. on the Air Force, but draconian meas- strength, will be deactivated. The service The Air Force picked Beale AFB in ures are being rumored for the near fu- says its purpose is to consolidate F-22 California as a new host for its MC-12W ture. Speculation is focused on the Air operations at four bases—Elmendorf in reconnaissance aircraft, based on the Force fleet of 65 B-1B Lancer bombers, Alaska, Langley in Vir- which have proven effective in Iraq and ginia, Nellis in Nevada, Afghanistan but are prohibitively expen- and Tyndall. However, Several air stations vied for the opportunity sive to operate. “We’re expecting the to become home for the F-35. because of Sen. Daniel axe to fall on the B-1B,” said the mem- Inouye’s (D-Hi.) enor- ber of Schwartz’s staff. mous clout, one F-22 Gates did, however, dangle two con- squadron will remain in flicting messages in front of Congress. Hawaii. The service says The first was his announcement that he the change will enable would like to retire from the top Penta- most squadrons to have gon post next year—in effect becoming a 21 aircraft instead of the “lame duck” after a long run as one of current 18. The F-22 the most influential defense secretaries fleet is limited to 187 air- ever. The second message was Gates’

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 7 WATCHlayout.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:23 PM Page 4

Congress has had ample opportunity to review the full scope of the secretary’s actions.” In a move reflecting “political out- rage,” as The Washington Post termed it, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and four AIIAAA Virginia congressmen demanded that Gates reconsider. All said the future of FORMMS JFCOM must be left to the BRAC pro- cess—which is tantamount to killing NEWW EARTTH Gates’ plan. When we went to press, the Sen. Jim Webb Senate Armed Services Committee was OBBSERVATTIOON planning to hold a hearing when the up- plan to close Joint Forces Command per house reconvened in September. TAASK FFORCEE (JFCOM) in Norfolk, Va., hire fewer con- Gates also wants to get rid of the tractors in the Pentagon, and reduce the Business Transformation Agency, which number of generals, admirals, and senior oversees individual acquisition programs AIAA has created a new executives in the top ranks. and, in his view, is redundant. He also These proposals were widely re- wants to eliminate the office of the assis- task force to assist in the ported as defense cuts, but Gates never tant secretary of defense for networks, formulation of a national claimed he was cutting defense costs. He integration, and information and the road map for the U.S. to said instead that he would be redirecting Joint Chiefs of Staff’s command, con- address investments in the about $100 billion from administrative trol, communications, and computer sys- to operational needs to repair a force tems unit. Earth-observing industry weakened by years of constant deploy- Taking aim at “brass creep”—the to adequately inform future ments and fighting. phenomenon of higher ranking people climate change debates Gates insists he has the authority to performing jobs once carried out by make these changes without action on those in lower grades—Gates plans to and decisions. Composed Capitol Hill. Critics say he does not, and freeze the number of positions in his of leading experts on policy must rely on the cumbersome Base Re- own office, defense agencies, and com- and climate-monitoring alignment and Closure process, which batant commands for the next three can take years to produce a decision. years. No more full-time positions in the technology from within JFCOM was created in 1999 to Office of the Secretary of Defense will be AIAA and in collaboration transform the military and foster joint- created after this year to replace con- with other organizations, ness. Gates’ supporters say the com- tractors, except when “critical needs” mand was needed then but is no longer are involved. Gates is also mandating a the task force is developing essential now that the service branches review of the Pentagon’s numerous out- a strategy to come up with operate jointly all the time. Because side boards and commissions—which to- recommendations to help about $500 million of its $704-million tal 65 and cost $75 million each year in annual budget pays for services by pri- his own office alone. Rumors are also reach this goal. vate contractors, many of them analysts, rife that Gates will reduce the number of JFCOM is viewed as a tempting target military bands, which currently total For more information, for Gates’ axe. about 60. Outside the war zones, Gates wants Gates is widely thought to hold the contact Craig Day to cut contractors by 10% a year for the initiative when crafting defense policy, at 703.264.3849 next three years. But JFCOM also with relatively little guidance from means jobs: The command employs Obama or the White House military of- or [email protected]. 2,200 people in Hampton Roads and fice. He has proven to be a powerful about 1,000 elsewhere. Gates has re- force when trying to get his way. Few peatedly acknowledged that his plan will believed he would succeed in paring cut thousands of jobs. down the Raptor program, but he did. Predictably, and even while on re- Observers of Gates’ strong-willed actions cess, hometown lawmakers rose to chal- say it would be foolish to count him out. lenge the Gates changes. Sen. Jim Webb But the JFCOM issue could linger, (D-Va.), normally a supporter of Gates and some in Washington who cannot and of the administration, insisted that beat Gates may seek to outlast him. “further action by the president or Sec- Robert F.Dorr retary Gates should be suspended until [email protected]

8 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 BEATlayout1010.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:25 PM Page 4

Continued from page 5) The Future Air Systems concept The EDA is targeting military aerospace Larger strategic value In May 2008 European defense ministers as a test case in its strategy for more closely Given the large number of European agreed to work on identifying key industrial aligning European industry in support of bodies, commercial organizations, and capabilities to support the development of common strategic targets, because aerospace, national governments now involved in future air combat systems. Following an EDA in terms of spending, jobs, and exports, ac- defining capabilities for a single Euro- request asking which sectors should be counts for 60% of the current defense tech- pean future air combat vehicle, it would prioritized, 23 European nations responded, nology industrial base. be easy to conclude that all they are cre- voting on where they would like to see The EDA is also working with the ASD’s ating is a growing circle of debating fo- technology efforts concentrated. They high- Air Sectorial Group in defining the critical lighted combat aircraft, helicopters, and UAVs: elements of FAS research. This work includes rums, rather than a concrete decision- identifying which European technological and making process. But this is not neces- Combat aircraft 14 industrial capabilities need to be maintained sarily the case. Trainers 10 at a strategic level; where the critical gaps Europe’s defense ministries are en- Airborne early warning 8 and/or dependencies on non-EU sources of gaged in a strategically important review Transports 7 supply are; how Europe’s military aerospace of where they should be in the world and Helicopters 14 global competitiveness can be enhanced; and how their armed forces should be re- Combat helicopters 13 which supply chain issues must be addressed. structured to take account of the need to UAVs 17 The support of the European Commission in increase deployability, improve intelli- UCAVs 10 this work is also being sought. gence gathering, and enhance force pro- jection capabilities, while decreasing per- sonnel and equipment costs. These common European military aircraft pro- agree on their future political role in the undercurrents all point toward fewer but grams. But a sixth-generation fighter or world, it will be hard for the continent’s more capable platforms, each interlinked strike aircraft is something else—it goes military aerospace planners to define the with those of its neighbors. to the very heart of how a government exact requirements of a common Euro- According to Weis, “Europe’s indus- sees itself on the world stage, of what ca- pean sixth-generation aircraft. trial capabilities will also need to be more pabilities it wishes to deploy, and where. Philip Butterworth-Hayes integrated, less duplicative, and more in- Form follows function—and until Eu- [email protected] terdependent. Increased specialization, rope’s disparate nation states can all Brighton,U.K. at all levels of the supply chain, must take over from too many trying to do everything. And this is not about fortress Europe policies—we recognize that pro- tected industries will not thrive in the global market—but rather about making ourselves better competitors and part- ners for our allies.” The debate has also highlighted the growing importance of the EDA as a program instigator. The agency has taken the lead role in the future tactical unmanned aerial system (FUAS) pro- gram, begun in November 2008 with the initial aim of developing a transna- tional maritime surveillance system—and which has since evolved to encompass tactical intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance opera- tions for navy and army applications— for Germany, France, Spain, Finland, Poland, Portugal, and Sweden. The EDA Armaments Directorate plans to finish the preparatory phase of the un- manned VTOL program by the end of this year, with an in-service horizon in the 2016-2018 timeframe. If FUAS hits all its milestones, it will enhance the authority of the EDA as a key player in enabling development of

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 9 CONVERSlayout1010.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:11 PM Page 2

WernerJ.A.DahmInterview by Frank Sietzen

Let’s begin with the Technology Hori- nology Horizons is the latest in this se- asked to do by the secretary and the chief zons study that your office conducted ries of major S&T visions for the Air of staff of the Air Force is to lead the de- for the Air Force. How would you de- Force. velopment of this vision. The office of scribe it? the chief scientist has been involved in Technology Horizons is the product Describe your role in all this. one way or another in developing several of a year-long assessment to identify the The role of chief scientist in Head- of the previous visions, but Technology most essential science and technology quarters Air Force is to give independent, Horizons is the first one that this office [S&T] areas that the Air Force must focus objective technical advice to the highest has been asked to lead. on during the next decade and beyond, levels of leadership and to help guide the to prepare for the challenges it faces in Air Force’s overall S&T enterprise. The Who else was involved? 2020-2030. This was an immense ef- biggest single thing that I have been We worked with inputs from the Air fort. It not only determined the greatest technology opportunities for the Air Force, but it assessed them in the con- text of the strategic, technology, and Werner J.A.Dahm is chief scientist of the Dahm is on leave of absence as professor budget environments during this time. Air Force.He serves as chief science advisor of aerospace engineering and as head of to the chief of staff and to the secretary of the Laboratory forTurbulence and Com- So how would you sum it up? the Air Force on a wide range of scientific bustion at the University of Michigan.He It is a guiding document for our S&T and technical issues affecting the Air Force is the author of more than 180 technical enterprise over the next decade. Twenty mission.Dahm interacts with Air Force publications and holds several U.S. years from now, the Air Force will look operational commands,combatant com- patents.He has given more than 220 very different from the way it looks to- mands, and acquisition and science and technical presentations worldwide in the day, and this will be partly the result of technology communities to address cross- areas of fluid dynamics,turbulence,com- the technologies that the study identifies organizational technical issues and bustion, and propulsion. as being essential for the Air Force. It is solutions,also interacting with the other vitally important. services and the secretary of defense. He holds a bachelor of science degree in mechanical engineering from the Univer- Exactly why? Dahm serves on the Steering Committee sity of Alabama in Huntsville,a master of An organization that is as technol- and Senior Review Group of the Air Force science degree in mechanical engineering ogy dependent as the Air Force cannot Scientific Advisory Board (SAB).He is the Air from the University ofTennessee Space accomplish its mission without a clear Force’s principal science and technology Institute,and a Ph.D.in aeronautics from understanding of what the high-payoff representative to the civilian scientific and Caltech.Dahm has received numerous technologies will be. At some level, all engineering community and to the public awards and honors,and is a member of technologies are valuable, but the point at large. the American Physical here is that we have sought to identify Society (Division of Dahm has served on the SAB,where he the most valuable—the disproportion- Fluid Dynam- chaired major studies on spectrum man- ately valuable—technologies that will de- ics), ASME, fine much of the Air Force in 2030. agement and thermal management, the European having participated in two other SAB Mechanics The Air Force has conducted several studies as well.He also chaired SAB Society,and the such studies over the years. How does science and technology reviews of pro- Interntional Technology Horizons fit in from a his- pulsion and air vehicles in the Air Force Combustion torical perspective? Research Laboratory.He took part in the Institute,and The first study was Toward New recent SAB review of the Air Force Office of is an AIAA Horizons, done right after WW II by Scientific Research and in two other SAB Fellow. Theodore von Kármán, and it really laid science and technology reviews.He has the technology foundation for much of participated in four studies for the the Air Force as we know it today. Since Defense Science Board and is a then the Air Force has developed an up- former member of the Defense dated S&T vision at the headquarters Science Study Group at the Insti- level roughly once every decade. Tech- tute for Defense Analyses.

10 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 CONVERSlayout1010.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:11 PM Page 3

WernerJ.A.Dahm Interview by James W.Canan

Force’s major commands, its product mostly about how to make particular sys- about for the next decade and beyond is centers, the Air Force Research Labora- tems with particular purposes, such as a “autonomy writ large.” tory, industry, other federal agencies, better air platform or a better propulsion and so on. My job was to ensure that we system. Then we began entering a period Explain that, please. distilled all this down to develop the best in which the range of technologies got so The difference between an auton- possible guidance for S&T, given the broad, and the ways in which they could omous system and an automated system is the autonomous system’s ability to use information about its environment and, “An organization that is as technology dependent as on its own—with some constraints— the Air Force cannot accomplish its mission without make genuine decisions about how it is a clear understanding of what the high-payoff going to execute the intent of the opera- tor. The most important finding in our technologies will be.” Technology Horizons document is that the Air Force today has the need and the opportunity to gain enormous capability strategic, technological, and budget envi- be mixed or matched to produce more increases, manpower efficiencies, and ronments that we face. kinds of capabilities became so numer- cost reductions through much, much I am convinced that what we have ous, that S&T guidance increasingly had greater use of autonomous systems. delivered is immensely valuable for the to incorporate additional elements that Many of our operations are very Air Force, and it is already being used to are less narrowly technical. manpower intensive. Some can be help guide our S&T investments. replaced or supported by autonomous Can you give an example? reasoning and control systems that can What part does your office play in Let’s take autonomy. When is the operate much faster than humans can, developing Air Force programs and right time to use more autonomy? In especially in complex situations where requirements? what kinds of systems, what kinds of humans are often not able to sift through The chief scientist’s office serves in processes? To what degree? There are large amounts of data and evaluate large a technical advisory role. As the Air Staff technical elements to all these questions, numbers of alternative courses of action builds operational requirements, there but the answers require breadth as much as well as autonomous systems can. are technical elements involved, and we as depth [of analysis]. The kinds of S&T help contribute to the understanding of insights that are most valuable to the Air What do you mean by a fully auton- those elements. The senior leaders have Force leadership today are significantly omous RPA, for instance? many sources of technical input, but my different from what they were before. It would be capable of assessing its office is supposed to be more than just own battle damage, for example, and another source. Our overarching require- The Technology Horizons report puts could autonomously decide how to adjust ment is to be independent and objective. a great deal of emphasis on autonomy the way it executes its mission in order to The technical opportunities and risks in and autonomous systems. Please tell maximize its remaining effectiveness. It our programs have to be fully understood us about that. might even be part of a much larger, frac- and must be communicated. The chief sci- We have been using autonomy for tionated system architecture in which entist’s office is a resource that the leader- quite some time in the form of semi- individual RPA elements operate collabo- ship can count on to give them what we ratively to act as a co- believe are the right answers, not neces- herent system. The sarily what they might want to hear. “What we are talking about for the entire system would next decade and beyond is‘autonomy writ be able to auton- Is it more difficult to arrive at the large.’” omously readjust its right answers in science and technol- mission execution as ogy than it used to be, back when individual elements weapons and other systems were autonomous platforms, such as remote- are degraded, or as their operating envi- more clearly defined and less techno- piloted aircraft [RPA]. But today’s RPA ronment changes. We are talking about a logically sophisticated? have only relatively low levels of auton- system that can take on very high levels Yes, it can be more difficult. For a omy. For the most part, they are just of autonomy if the operator wants it to very long time, Air Force S&T was automated systems. What we are talking do so.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 11 CONVERSlayout1010.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:11 PM Page 4

The software of autonomous systems humans, the number of errors in them Let’s talk about the here-and-now must be incredibly complex. would be so large that we couldn’t build S&T programs that your office is fos- Yes, and that makes its verification those millions of lines of code. But when tering for the Air Force. What are and validation [V&V] very difficult. That you put it all together, there are still logic some of these? is a real challenge for us, because our errors in the OFP, typically about one for There are many, but let’s take GPS ability to gain the enormous advantages every 4,000 lines of code, and finding augmentation as an example. That is a of autonomous systems depends on this. them is immensely difficult. very strong focus area for us right now. Software used to be deterministic, in the GPS is critical. It runs throughout every- sense that there were small numbers of What does all that mean in terms of thing the Air Force does, and everything possible inputs, and the logic paths that testing the code for accuracy? our society and the world do, too. The the software could follow were very lim- The set of possible inputs is so large big issue is that potential adversaries ited. As a result, every one of them could that not only can’t we test them all, we have learned how immensely dependent be tested to ensure that there were no can’t test more than an insignificant frac- on GPS our warfighting capabilities have errors in coding or logic, so that the sys- tion of them. Software glitches in an become, and so they have focused on tem did what it was supposed to do. OFP are essentially unavoidable, because ways to deny us access to GPS. We Over time, in part with the advent of we cannot comprehensively test these know that we will need methods to aug- massive processing capability, we were programs anymore. So V&V is a major ment GPS in such situations. able to write software that could accept a challenge for us today. It will be essential large number of inputs and use those to for enabling the high levels of autonomy What is the S&T community working go through potentially very complex logic that we need in future systems. on now? processes. The result is that it became Back when software was highly One avenue is chip-scale inertial essentially impossible to test all of the deterministic, we could take a brute-force navigation and timing systems that give combinations of states that such a sys- approach—examine all the inputs and us a GPS-independent way of getting tem could operate in. In theory the see if the outputs made sense. We still position and timing information. This inputs and outputs may still be determin- largely do V&V that way, because we uses chip fabrication technologies to istically related, but there is no way to don’t know how to do it any differently. make tiny IMUs [inertial measurement test all these combinations. Yet we know that we can test only a min- units] and clocks for miniaturized guid- uscule subset of all possible states of the ance systems. Please explain all this with reference system. Our ability to do V&V has not In parallel with that, but in an earlier to an actual system. kept up with our ability to generate com- stage of maturity, is another technology, Let’s take the OFP—the operational plexity in increasingly capable software. based on cold-atom approaches, that flight program—in a modern fighter air- looks hugely promising. Despite the craft. That is an autonomous system. It is That seems like a huge problem. name, this has nothing to do with cryo- the software that runs the fighter. It runs It is. For sure we need a fundamen- genics. It traps a set of atoms and mole- all of the aircraft’s systems—the engines, tally new insight into how to do V&V, not cules in a narrow range of quantum control surfaces, all of that. It takes in just better ways for how we do it today. states—matter at the quantum level is a and processes not just information on the The cost of developing and verifying the wave. Matter waves have wavelengths current flight speed, the wind, the alti- OFP, for example, is a major part of the that are very much shorter than light tude, and so forth, but a lot more, too, overall cost of an aircraft system. And it waves, and—without going into too much such as the RF [radio fre- quency] environment that “The big issue is that potential adversaries have learned how the aircraft is working in, and the variety of signals it is immensely dependent on GPS our warfighting capabilities being subjected to, and have become, and so they have focused on ways to deny us makes decisions about what access to GPS.” the aircraft should do. is very hard to change the OFP. When detail—that lets us use interferometry to How do you devise and test opera- we want to change it, we can’t just tinker build tiny and ultraprecise inertial naviga- tional flight program software? with it—we have to go back and com- tion units based on those cold atoms. It typically has many millions of pletely revalidate the whole code at huge lines of codes, and we no longer have costs and with uncertain results. Quan- Explain the practical effect of all this. humans writing those codes line by line. tum computing may eventually help, but Sure. For example, this would en- We use automated software generation that’s far down the road. We need an ap- able a GPS-guided aircraft or missile to for much of that, and that’s a good proach we can implement in about a still have an accurate position system thing. If those lines were still written by decade. when it enters a hostile environment that

12 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 CONVERSlayout1010.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:11 PM Page 5

is GPS-denied. Once it loses its GPS and so did a hypersonic vehicle devel- craft] program to integrate a solid-state connection, its cold-atom system takes oped in HIFiRE, a basic science research electric laser into the forward weapons bay of a B-1 in 2017. The laser system will be a “Now we have to weigh the advantages of hypersonic flight against complete module that is the risk of competing technologies in the rest of the world denying inserted in the weapons us those advantages.” bay in the same way as a bomb rack and is then hooked into the aircraft’s over, and it can fly then for hours, maybe program that the Air Force is conducting thermal management system. We will days, and still have the level of precision in partnership with Australia. Both pro- conduct demonstration tests with the in position that it would have had with grams look promising. HIFiRE is focused fully integrated system. GPS all the way through. on advancing our understanding of the fundamental physics of hypersonics, We have seen high-energy laser pro- So this would be a good guidance sys- including boundary-layer transition and grams come and go for many years. tem to have on an ocean-spanning, scramjet inlet flow characteristics. What are this laser’s prospects for be- precision-strike hypersonic missile? From X-51, we now know how to coming an actual weapon? Absolutely. Precision strike is based achieve sustained hypersonic flight, and Airborne lasers, especially at tactical on a delivery vehicle or munition being we know about how large an investment scale for strike and self-defense, will give able to know where it is relative to its tar- it will take to advance to real systems. us a very important low-collateral-dam- get coordinates. Currently, precision Now we have to weigh the advantages of age weapon system. We’ve been work- strike becomes very difficult in regions hypersonic flight against the risk of com- ing on them since the 1970s—first gas where GPS information is denied. In our Technology Horizons report, we noted that the third most important area for “As with any S&T program, the central question is: How Air Force S&T to focus on—after auton- long do we continue to invest in a current technology omous systems and augmenting human capacities by autonomy and other before we find that there is a better way to do it?” means—is ensuring our freedom of oper- ations in contested and denied environ- peting technologies in the rest of the dynamic lasers, and then the chemical ments. We can no longer count on hav- world denying us those advantages. oxygen iodine laser that flew on the ing access to GPS the way we have over strategic-scale ABL [airborne laser] mis- the past 20 years. How about your work on new ways of sile defense aircraft and on the ATL [air- gaining access to space? borne tactical laser] C-130 demonstra- Many more countries have the tech- The TSTO [two-stage-to-orbit] pro- tion program. In each case, technology nology to deny us access and threaten gram that we are doing with NASA is a moved along and displaced each of these us in other ways too, I gather. very important one in terms of future air- lasers with better ones. The whole global science and tech- breathing access to space. The Air Force nology landscape has changed. The has focused on rocket-based, combined- Is the technology progression endless? number of countries that have S&T pro- cycle designs; NASA has done turbine- As with any S&T program, the cen- grams that are peers or near-peers to based designs. From what we have seen tral question is: How long do we con- ours is growing. Given the worldwide so far, rocket-based systems are very tinue to invest in a current technology access to the Internet and to the grow- attractive. We are now moving to a more before we find that there is a better way ing number of technical publications— detailed, level-2 design of the complete to do it? So we have to decide what we upwards of 10,000 every single day— system, so that we can begin to really can afford to put into a given technol- someone on the other side of the world understand, for a fully integrated system, ogy—not just from a budget point of view can come up to speed very quickly in how those advantages and disadvantages but from an intelligent investment point just about any S&T area and be doing will carry forward. of view—knowing that there are other leading-edge work on militarily relevant technologies that might displace it rather technologies very quickly. Is directed energy finally coming to the quickly. fore as a potentially useful weapon? My job as the chief scientist is not to Speaking of hypersonic missiles, how Definitely. Let’s take laser-based make budget decisions, but to help un- is that area of S&T coming along? directed energy for tactical strike as an derstand how big the technical chal- Our hypersonic X-51 WaveRider example. We are on a roadmap now via lenges are and how long the lifetimes of had a successful first flight not long ago, our ELLA [electric laser on a large air- technologies will be.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 13 AIRCRAFTlayout1010.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:16 PM Page 2

Jetliners: Brightspotintheworldeconomy

IN THE GREAT 2009 RECESSION, EXACTLY vere pain. Indeed, the World Bank’s unit transactions. In addition to ECAs, gov- one major segment of the commercial value of manufactured exports fell at a ernment-owned banks such as Bank of economy held up with no pain: Large rate of 4.9%. China and sovereign wealth funds have jetliner output increased, despite the Yet the large jetliner industry‘s be- confidently gotten into jetliner funding. worst economy the world had seen since havior was anomalous relative to both The percentage of deliveries going to air- WW II. This is not because jetliner pro- its history and the global economy. Re- lines with government financial backing duction is a lagging economic indicator; gional jet deliveries fell by 5.7%. Busi- also increased. Chinese and Mideastern deliveries will stay at a high level this ness jets fell by 24.3%. Civil helicopters carriers, typically owned by govern- year, and Airbus and Boeing are largely fell by 12.5%. Yet the large jetliner mar- ments, both took delivery of a record concerned about logistical challenges to ket grew by 10.1%. Much of that was number of jets, as a percentage of the any future production rate increases. Boeing output recovering from the total world market. This somewhat unexpected market 2008 machinists’ strike, but some of Government support for the jetliner performance was certainly welcome in this growth was organic. Airbus output business also took indirect forms. Gov- an industry more accustomed to painful grew by about 2% as well. ernment actions taken to stabilize major cyclical downturns. It also raises ques- Several factors differentiate this financial institutions such as AIG, the tions about the scope of further growth downturn from previous ones. The first Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), CIT, and and any risks that lie ahead. major difference that helped to keep jetliner output high in- Mystery achievement demystified volves fuel prices. Normally, a 737 The year 2009 was the first since WW II recession of this magnitude to see a global economic contraction. In translates into slack oil demand, all, worldwide economic activity dropped which means lower prices. Yet by about 1%. Not surprisingly, this re- while the price of oil came down sulted in the worst year in jet aviation from its July 2008 record high history. According to the International of $147/barrel, by historical Air Transport Association, RPKs (rev- standards it has stayed stub- enue passenger kilometers) dropped by bornly high. 3.5% in 2009. Cargo (freight ton kilo- While high fuel prices made meters) fell by an unheard of 10.1%. new jets considerably more ap- Economic and air travel contractions pealing than older types, past like these have historically produced un- demand downturns usually have resulted others forestalled massive fire sales of pleasant jetliner market busts. The eco- in serious financial problems at the air- the aircraft. Imagine if AIG had had to nomic indicators clearly pointed to a jet- lines. The credit crunch of 2008-2009 force its ILFC unit into dumping its port- liner production drop of more than also had the potential to keep carriers folio on the market to generate cash. 30%, which historically is typical for a from obtaining financing for the planes Repeat that with a few other lessors and bust cycle. Most other industries felt se- they wanted. This brings up the second you would have seen a particularly se- major difference with this vere jet glut, creating low prices for used cycle: An increasingly jets that would have made many of them A320 high level of government more competitive against new jets. financial support. Government policy has also helped The most direct gov- create the third factor that is different ernment help came in the with this downturn. Thanks to low inter- form of ECA (Export est rates set by central banks that are ea- Credit Agency) financing, ger to stimulate the economy, the world which reached all-time is now awash in cash that has nowhere record levels. ECAs such else to go. With few investment opportu- as the U.S. Export-Import nities in housing or new technology—or Bank increased their pres- much of anything else—investing in jets ence in the market, help- seems smart, or at least harmless. Thus, ing with about 35% of orders at the July Farnborough Air Show

14 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 AIRCRAFTlayout1010.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:16 PM Page 3

were largely from lessors. Almost all of these were for the Airbus A320 and the COMMERCIAL JETLINERS: HISTORY AND FORECAST Boeing 737, the two jet families with the Units delivered Market value in 2010 $Billions best asset value track records and the 1,200 100 broadest end-user market. Meanwhile, air transport demand 1,000 has come back strongly. RPKs indicated 80 a 7.9% increase in the first half of this year relative to the first half of 2009. 800 Cargo shipments have risen at a faster 60 pace, corresponding with a remarkable comeback in world trade. Not surpris- 600

ingly, both Airbus and Boeing have an- 40 nounced production rate increases. If 400 these industry health indicators are sus- tainable, then all the actions taken to 20 sustain jetliner production in 2009 and 200 2010 were worth it, from the standpoint of keeping output steady and avoiding unpleasant layoffs and revenue drops. 0 0 2000 19 2002 1 9 2004 2 2006 20 2008 2010 04 2012 04 2014 04 2016 04 2018 Risks ahead Units Value Airbus,Boeing,CSeries,C919 only; includes KC-X Yet there are big risks with this optimistic prognosis. While the air travel industry is doing very well, the economic recovery that should be its primary driver has that we should ignore U.S. and Euro- heavy pressure, particularly AIG’s ILFC been relatively muted, with the devel- pean numbers and focus instead on the unit, CIT, and RBS. Any government de- oped world experiencing fairly anemic strong economies of China and the Mid- cision to scale back ECA finance, or to growth. U.S. second-quarter 2010 GDP east. But the recent orders have all been cut government support for government- growth, for example, was just 2.4%. The for lessors, and those Chinese and Mid- backed lessors or airlines, could hurt jet- International Monetary Fund is forecast- east airlines already have large order po- liner demand. ing euro-zone growth of just 1% for this sitions of their own. So do the estab- The third biggest risk is irrational ex- year. Japan saw only 0.4% growth in the lished low-cost carriers. The lessors are uberance at the airline level. Airlines second quarter. Even China is starting to not looking at China and the Mideast as have returned to profitability largely be- slow, although its numbers are still envi- their core markets. They are betting that cause they held the line on capacity able. The Chinese government now ex- the rest of the world economy will keep growth. That 3.5% RPK demand drop in pects that the second quarter’s 10.3% coming back despite economic uncer- 2009 was accompanied by a 3% ASK rate will fall to 8-8.5% by the fourth tainties. Yet if there is a double-dip re- (available seat kilometer) capacity cut, quarter. cession, traffic will drop again. That re- which allowed airlines to avoid ruinous Clearly, there is a degree of separa- cession is unlikely, but any kind of losses. Halfway through this year, capac- tion between today’s air traffic numbers serious slowing of economic growth rep- ity was up just 2%, meaning the 7.9% and the broader economy. Travel de- resents the greatest risk to this market. RPK increase has translated into superb mand is currently disconnected from, The second risk is and much better than, the economic in- basically political risk. dicators that typically drive them. Stock This arises when politi- A350 prices, GDP growth, inflation (or even cians control a much deflation), bond rates, retail sales, hous- broader swath of the ing inventories, employment, and con- economy. Most of the sumer confidence numbers in the U.S. 2009 deliveries financed and Europe all show continuing uncer- by private banks and tainty. We have seen this disconnect be- lessors were arranged fore. In 2008-2009, plummeting air before the credit crunch. traffic numbers were much worse than Although this crunch is the prevailing economic indicators. easing, many key jetliner The jetliner primes would maintain financiers remain under

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 15 AIRCRAFTlayout1010.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:16 PM Page 4

profits. With multi- serving as a market stimulant; rather, the ple airlines now market is simply buying newer copies of adding capacity, jet families that have been in production there is a danger for 10-20 years, particularly Boeing’s that any kind of 737NG and Airbus’ A320. market slowdown This raises an intriguing question: If could result in too all-new technology with even lower fuel many seats chasing and maintenance costs were available, too few passengers. 787 would the market be propelled to even On a related greater heights? Assuming the answer is note, the fourth yes, the market can look forward to a risk concerns irrational exuberance at Lease, with deliveries beginning in six strong, technology-induced growth wave the manufacturer level. Both jet primes months. The availability of these produc- starting in the middle of the decade. have announced plans for modest, incre- tion slots is cause for concern. Boeing’s 787 will be the first to ar- mental increases. But if they get too ag- The fifth risk concerns damage to ex- rive. While it will enter service late this gressive, any market slowdown would isting jet portfolios. While demand and year or in the first half of 2011, deliver- have an unpleasant impact, particularly financing for newer jets have been ies will likely ramp up gradually, even- on the supply chain that would need to strong, older jets have not recovered tually reaching 10 per month by around add capacity to serve the jet primes. their predownturn values and lease rates. 2014. Around the same time, Airbus’ There are also valid reasons to ques- It is also relatively difficult to find financ- A350XWB will arrive. These two long- tion the strength of some of the backlog. ing for these older jets. Recent financial range midmarket twinjets offer signifi- For example, at Farnborough, Airbus an- troubles at several midsized and small air- cant cost savings over their predeces- nounced a large A320 order from Air lines, particularly Mexicana and Italy’s sors, the 767, A330, and 777-200ER. Wind Jet, also indicate the dependence Just after these new twin-aisle jetlin- of older jets on less healthy and some- ers arrive, we will likely see a new ver- what marginal players in the aviation sion of the A320 series, using Pratt & business. All of this, of course, means fi- Whitney’s Geared TurboFan (GTF), and nancial pain for lessors and other finance perhaps General Electric/Safran’s Leap- providers who had planned on these as- X engine. There is a good chance that sets better holding their values. Also, if Boeing will be forced to follow Airbus the wide spread between new and old jet with a product reengining. Bombardier’s values and lease rates gets even wider, GTF-powered C Series will also arrive in those old jets will get irresistibly cheap, this period. Our forecast assumes that undermining new jet values and demand. Airbus will introduce its new product in Finally, there is significant risk to af- the second half of 2015, with Boeing termarket business models. With a very following one year later. high level of new jet production relative In all, our forecast calls for the cur- to capacity growth, the world’s jet fleet is rent plateau to be sustainable, with a few getting younger; thus older, more main- small production increases. Our 2010 tenance-intensive aircraft will be retired jetliner forecast calls for a 4% decline by faster or consigned to marginal markets value from 2009, but this is due solely to with lower utilization. Seventy 737 clas- a temporary dip in 777 numbers and the sics were parked in early 2005. That transition between the 747-400 and number is up to 260 today, and retire- -800. While we do call for a narrowbody ments of this type are ramping up. Many market dip immediately before the new companies in the supply chain sold their reengined versions arrive, Teal Group original equipment at a discount in antic- also forecasts a technology-driven up- ipation of strong revenue as aircraft got turn, starting around 2016. older. These manufacturers are likely to All of this, of course, assumes that face lower aggregate margins, and will the world economy will cooperate. The find that they need to adjust their pricing current macroeconomic environment, strategies. which combines a respectable level of growth with relatively high oil prices and Powered by technology government-assisted liquidity, might not One unusual aspect of this market is that continue indefinitely. the “modern” planes now in high de- Richard Aboulafia mand are not particularly modern. This Teal Group is not a typical case of new technology [email protected]

16 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 New! 1FSTPOBM
t
'MFYJCMF
t
1PSUBCMF
t
5SVTUFE AIAA eBooks

Gain the portability, fl exibility, and personalization that AIAA eBooks provide. Now available from AIAA—your trusted source for aerospace research for more than 75 years.

t
More than 200 titles
GSPN
UIF
AIAA Education Series
BOE
UIF
Progress in Astronautics and Aeronautics
TFSJFT‰including formerly out-of-print volumes from the 1960s and beyond.

t
3FBE
JU
online PS download JU
UP
ZPVS
DPNQVUFS

t
PDF format‰FBTJMZ
SFBE
UISPVHI
UIF
free Adobe software.

t
"WBJMBCMF
BU
UIF
chapter level
JO
BEEJUJPO
UP
UIF
entire book.

t
Print, copy, cut, paste!
TPNF
SFTUSJDUJPOT
BQQMZ

t
"*""
.FNCFST
SFDFJWF
B
25% discount
PGG
PG
MJTU
QSJDF

t
.BLF
OPUFT
TFBSDI
BOE
FYQPSU
DJUBUJPOT

t
3FDFJWF
FNBJM
BMFSUT
BOE
344
GFFET

Start reading today at http://ebooks.aiaa.org Institutions wishing to purchase access should contact Adrian Fair at [email protected], 888.854.6853, or 703.264.7505. Collections are available for all titles, by series, or by subject.

09-0252ebks2sdbr2.indd 1 3/19/09 3:21:35 PM VIEWlayout1010.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:29 PM Page 2

Adastra:ThefutureofNASA’s astronautcorps

“THERE IS NO EASY WAY FROM THE EARTH From a high of about 140 astronauts steady diet of Russian language courses. to the stars” (Non est ad astra mollis e when I left NASA in 2001, the Astro- The first few years of ISS expedition terris via) wrote the Roman philosopher naut Office numbers today about 65 training followed the Mir-era “backup Seneca the Younger in the first century flight-qualified crewmembers. In addi- crew” model, with each crew of three A.D. Given the uncertain future of tion, a dozen or more veteran astronauts shadowed by a replacement team that NASA’s human spaceflight plans, the continue to work for the agency in non- could step into the shoes of the prime Stoic’s words must resonate with present flying management roles, contributing crew right up through launch day. and prospective members of NASA’s as- hard-won operations experience. For the But such last-minute substitutions sel- tronaut corps. They face the 2011 end active astronauts, the mission is clear: To dom happened, and backup crewmem- of the space shuttle era, inaugurating a train for and fly expeditions aboard the bers were then fed back into the training decade when perhaps only 40 U.S. as- ISS, and when not flying, to support grind for a year or more before their tronauts may journey to Earth orbit. By their colleagues who do. own turns came. Watching his prime contrast, when I first flew as a shuttle The six crewmembers of each ISS crew rumble aloft from Baikonur on a crewmember, NASA launched 84 astro- expedition generally serve six-month trail of golden flame, one backup cosmo- nauts in just two calendar years, 1994- tours, and an average of a dozen astro- naut once turned to his U.S. colleague 1995. But those days are gone, and to- nauts and cosmonauts will live aboard and wryly lamented the prospect of start- day’s corps must grapple with shrinking the station annually. By partner agree- ing over: “We are now considered the flight opportunities, new training chal- ment, Russian cosmonauts fill half those dumbest cosmonauts on the planet.” lenges, and serious questions about the slots. This leaves two for other ISS part- ISS training managers have now in- future of human space exploration. ner astronauts and four for Americans, stituted a concept called “single flow to all of whom fly aboard the four Russian launch,” where the backup team trains Soyuz spacecraft, launched annually to with the prime crew through launch, The Soyuz TMA-19 rocket launches from Baikonur provide crew transport and emergency then tackles only six more months of ex- Cosmodrome on June 16 carrying Expedition 24 NASA Flight Engineers Shannon Walker and escape at the station. After 2012, the pedition-specific classes before flying. Douglas Wheelock, and Soyuz Commander number of U.S. astronauts needed to First-time flyers typically spend about Fyodor Yurchikhin, to the ISS. Photo credit: crew ISS, fill the training pipeline, and 2.5 years training for an expedition, says NASA/Carla Cioffi. cover office technical assignments is Jett, with less than two years needed for about 55, says Brent Jett, chief of flight repeat ISS flyers. crew operations at NASA Johnson. Although the travel and family sepa- ration burden is still hard on crewmem- Training for long-haul spaceflight bers, the single-flow streamlining reduces The ISS has been manned continuously those stresses and makes it more likely for nearly a decade, starting with the No- that some astronauts will volunteer for a vember 2, 2000, arrival of Expedition 1. second long-duration flight. Repeat flyers Supplying crewmembers to keep the sta- include Peggy Whitson (now chief of the tion productive and operable for another Astronaut Office) and Jeff Williams. 10 years is the challenge for the current Their colleagues Mike Fossum, Don Pet- astronaut corps. Jett, who flew four shut- tit, and Sunni Williams have all been as- tle missions and commanded STS-115 signed to their second ISS tours (29, 31, in 2006, noted in an interview that he and 33, respectively). personally envies ISS crewmembers, who “really get a chance to ‘live’ in space,” as Still hiring? opposed to just “enduring” the hectic, Shannon Walker, the last member of the flat-out sprint of a shuttle mission. 2004 class to fly, is now at the ISS with But that long-duration experience Expedition 24. Nearly all of the astro- has come at a high price. The normal nauts who will fly on the station in the ISS training flow has often exceeded next decade have already been hired. three years, with half the time spent at Will NASA shut down its astronaut selec- Russia’s Star City for systems classes, tion process? Not at all, says Whitson— simulations, and, for the Americans, a NASA will continue to hire them in small

18 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 VIEWlayout1010.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:29 PM Page 3

pressions and produce astronauts with the right skills and temperament to suc- ceed aboard ISS. Flight Crew Opera- tions has already refocused astronaut candidate training for the coming decade of long-duration missions. Jett says that “the astronaut corps is not immune to the fundamental changes that NASA is undergoing, the biggest in 30 years. But in many ways we were better prepared for change, because we already knew the shuttle era was end- ing.” U.S. astronauts have also known since 2005 that Soyuz would be their ticket to LEO for years, pending the de- velopment of shuttle’s successor. “Other than the current uncertainty [about NASA’s long-range direction], not much has changed,” says Jett. The curriculum for the 2009 astro- Cosmonaut Fyodor Yurchikhin and NASA astronaut Shannon Walker, both Expedition 24 flight engineers, naut class reflects this reality. None of its occupy their seats in the Soyuz TMA-19 spacecraft. On June 28 the crew relocated the Soyuz from the members will fly on the orbiter, so except Zvezda service module’s aft port to the Rassvet mini research module 1. for a few ascent orientation sessions in the shuttle mission simulator, shuttle numbers, both to replace the few who naut candidate, or “ascan,” must fit the training has been supplanted by ISS and will leave with the shuttle’s final flight part physically. Because Russia provides Soyuz systems training, long-duration and to introduce younger crewmembers both the crew transport and emergency skills in areas such as robotics and EVA, into the corps. escape vehicles at ISS, “we won’t select and Russian language classes. “We get literally thousands of appli- a candidate [who can’t] fit in a Soyuz.” The language classes are an integral cants,” says Whitson, who served on the Who makes an ideal candidate? part of Soyuz training. Jett says that he 2004 selection board and chaired the Whitson, who spent more than a year wants to see an experienced U.S. crew- 2009 panel. “We want a diverse group on orbit with Expedition 5 and as com- member in the left, flight engineer’s seat, of candidates,” she explains. “People mander of 16, says she’s looking for working directly with the center-seat Rus- with different backgrounds—pilots, sci- “people who are easy to work with and sian commander on rendezvous, proxim- entists, engineers—can learn from each be around.” Surveys of expedition crews, ity operations, and emergency proce- other.” Test pilots share their opera- she says, have ranked traits such as “self- dures. Shannon Walker took on this tional and decision-making experience, caring, team-oriented, good follower, and demanding engineer role during her while scientists teach their classmates leadership” at the top of those desired in June launch to ISS. The right-seater is about how research—on the ground or a future astronaut. A high-maintenance less responsible for piloting tasks but still at ISS—gets done. crewmember is poison on a long-dura- has duties in orbit operations and emer- The 23 members of my 1990 “Hair- tion flight, or even a shuttle mission. gencies. Soyuz skills will carry over to ball” group trained for the challenge of My 1990 classmates were hired ei- the space shuttle; in 1990, “Space Sta- ther as mission specialists or pilot astro- The class chosen in 2009 will train in the NEEMO tion Freedom” was just a stack of view- nauts. But when the nine new U.S. hires subsea habitat. graphs, and few of us imagined we of the 2009 group complete their train- would ever fly aboard an orbiting outpost ing, they will be termed astronauts. Only called the ISS. The station is now the when named to an ISS expedition will only flight opportunity available, and as- they receive temporary designations tronaut hiring and candidate training re- such as “flight engineer,” “U.S. segment flect that reality. lead,” or “commander.” Formal astronaut qualifications are posted at http://nasajobs.nasa.gov/as- Always training tronauts/. Jett says that in addition to Although the hiring process is not per- meeting educational, professional experi- fect, Whitson thinks the training that ence, and medical standards, an astro- candidates receive can confirm first im-

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 19 VIEWlayout1010.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:30 PM Page 4

recent Soyuz crew, a proficiency in largely ballistic vehicles little rusty during their such as Soyuz, Orion, or many commer- final simulator session, cial designs. back for refresher As the T-38, originally an Air Force training before clear- trainer, approaches 50 years in service ing them for their sta- with the astronaut corps, NASA is ex- tion launch. amining other aircraft to complement the Talon. Candidates include business Value of the cockpit jets for practicing crew coordination, or One challenge for modern turboprop trainers like the T-6 Whitson and Jett is Texan II, suitable for introducing the exposing new ascans complex aviation environment to ascans to the dynamic without flying backgrounds. decision-making envi- ronment characteristic 21st-century astronauts of spaceflight. Fast- What mix of skills will a future astronaut paced emergency- corps need? Will there be opportunities Astronauts Stephen N. Frick (front) and Rex J. Walheim, STS-122 com- filled sessions in the beyond the current LEO/ISS/Soyuz op- mander and mission specialist, respectively, prepare to fly a NASA T-38. shuttle simulator in erations? Jett says he had planned in Houston were at the 2012 to assign a cadre of about six ex- operations in new commercial or NASA- core of this process. But the ISS simula- perienced astronauts to flight testing of built vehicles when these appear. tor is better suited to systems or facilities the Orion vehicle, but that plan is on For the past 10 years, ascans have training, where problems unfold over hold until a firm schedule emerges for ei- also participated in expedition training. hours or days, and maintenance or re- ther a stripped-down, LEO-only Orion This exposes them to field experiences pairs might take weeks, as with the Au- or commercial vehicles. that showcase team-building and leader- gust coolant pump package failure. Veteran astronaut Linda Godwin, ship, often under wilderness conditions. But spaceflight emergencies do not who works with Jett in Flight Crew Op- The 2009 class members will find them- always grant astronauts the luxury of erations, says much depends on who will selves on physically demanding treks time. Life-and-death situations can arise be doing the driving: Will commercial ve- with the National Outdoor Leadership quickly, especially during launch and hicles follow a “rental car” model, requir- School, underwater at the NASA Ex- landing, or in the risk-laden hours of a ing NASA astronaut operators, or a treme Environment Mission Operations spacewalk. The most effective generic “space taxi” concept, where commercial (NEEMO) subsea habitat, or trekking training for those situations, says Jett, crews or ground-based operators deliver through snow-laden forests with Cana- comes at the controls of an airplane. a NASA crew to the station? dian military survival experts. Instructors “The value of aviation training is that The astronauts will be involved in the critique the candidates’ performance in decisions made in the cockpit have real- design and testing of any NASA-built leadership roles, and expedition mem- world consequences,” he explains. No spacecraft that emerges from current bers see how their colleagues get along simulator offers that same dynamic envi- congressional and White House debate. in a stressful work environment that de- ronment, demanding a steady stream of They also stand ready to advise commer- mands effective teamwork. critical thinking and decisions, small and cial designers on meeting human space- My classmates and I began our 1990- large, that determine one’s survival. Fly- flight standards and operations require- 1991 ascan training in the classroom, ing, or “spaceflight proficiency training,” ments. Beyond 2020, NASA explorers then practiced in part-task trainers, mov- gives ascans from a wide range of back- and their international partners may un- ing up finally to the mission simulator. In- grounds a common grounding in the art dertake exploration on NEOs, on the structors gave few, if any, exams; we of good judgment. Moon, or at Lagrange points such as demonstrated our competence in prac- During the shuttle era, astronauts Sun-Earth L2. These tasks will require tice, but this made it difficult for supervi- flew T-38 Talon jet trainers, and shuttle scientific exploration skills different from sors to assess individual performance. pilots trained in the STA (shuttle training those needed on ISS. Ascans today are evaluated systemat- aircraft), a modified Gulfstream business Outside government, commercial ac- ically by experienced instructors and as- jet capable of replicating the orbiter’s ap- cess to space may lead to privately tronauts, and NASA is no longer shy proach performance and handling quali- owned facilities in LEO. Employee as- about giving feedback. Those who can- ties. The STA will retire with the shuttle, tronauts would tend these, serving in not meet standards after supplemental and the T-38 complement at NASA’s positions ranging from adventure tour training are dropped from the program Ellington Field aircraft operation in Hous- guides to researchers in orbiting indus- before graduation. Throughout the ISS ton has already dropped from 30 to trial facilities. expedition training, right up through about 20 aircraft, reflecting the smaller Ken Bowersox, who led ISS Expedi- launch day, evaluations continue. Rus- size of the astronaut corps and the re- tion 6 and is a veteran shuttle com- sian instructors sent the members of a duced need for high-performance jet mander, is now SpaceX vice president

20 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 VIEWlayout1010.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:30 PM Page 5

for long duration [and are] able to deal for my first spaceflight; new astronaut with the ups and downs in the pace of an hires may have to wait a decade, and fu- expedition.” ture flight assignments depend on Wash- In contrast to the short, high-inten- ington decisions not yet taken. sity sprint of a shuttle mission, ISS crew- If a new program crystallizes in the members have the luxury of time. “You next few years—whether expeditions to can’t focus for six months on station near-Earth objects, a journey to La- with that same intensity,” Bowersox grange points, or pioneering the Moon— says. “On ISS, you can afford to make a crews for testing new vehicles and flying mistake, with the knowledge you have operational missions will be drawn pref- time to recover.” He points out that the erentially from the ranks of experienced fundamental reason for flying an astro- ISS astronauts. In the tradition of Lewis naut is to add value to that specific mis- and Clark, the nation will need a Corps NASA astronaut Tracy Caldwell Dyson, Expedition sion. “We’ll need different types....per- of Discovery to challenge such new fron- 24 flight engineer, prepares to exit the Quest haps with broader backgrounds, maybe tiers. While cruising the weightless mod- airlock of the International Space Station to more experience in the sciences or other ules of the space station, the astronaut begin the first of three planned spacewalks to remove and replace an ammonia pump module activities than in operations.” corps is acquiring the judgment, leader- that failed July 31. ship, scientific skills, and—perhaps most Corps of Discovery important—the stamina needed to navi- Today, NASA’s projected human space- gate the uncertain corridors of NASA’s for astronaut safety and mission assur- flight manifest is relatively high on man- future. Thomas D.Jones ance. He says NASA will need ISS crew- days in LEO, but low on individual op- [email protected] members who “have the right mindset portunity. I waited just under four years www.AstronautTomJones.com

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 21 SPACElayout1010rev.qxd:AA Template 9/17/10 12:52 AM Page 2

Spacelaunchesspikeupward

THIRTY-FIVE SPACE LAUNCH MISSIONS WERE Based on launch activity through the attempted during the first six months of end of June, recent-year launch totals, this year. Only two of the missions failed, known launch manifests worldwide, and India’s GSLV 1 rocket on April 15 and the predictable trend of more launches in South Korea’s Naro 1 on June 11. The the second half of the year than in the number of missions is slightly more than first, we project that the total number of the 34 posted in the first half of 2009. missions attempted for this year may sur- There were also two launch failures dur- pass 80 for the first time since 2000. ing those six months, Orbital Sciences’ For most of the past decade, the annual Taurus XL booster on February 24 and launch numbers have hovered between North Korea’s Taepo Dong 2. the mid-50s and mid-60s.

The Long March and the Proton, opposite, are More active launch programs two of the most active launch programs. There is now clearly a trend upward, and it is being driven by a combination of three factors: Most of the major launch vehicle programs are as active as they have been in the past decade; some of the traditionally less active programs have begun to pick up the pace of their launches slightly; and a few new launch vehicles have been introduced. There are five launcher programs that we classify as highly active—pro- grams that consistently launch five or more times a year. They are Russia’s Soyuz and Proton, Boeing’s Delta II, Ar- ianespace’s Ariane 5, and China’s Long March family. In 2009, all but one of them—Long March, which was coming off a record 11 launches in 2008— launched as many as or more than they had at any time in recent memory. Those four vehicles alone accounted for nearly half of all the launch missions at- tempted last year. Soyuz had an exceptional year, with a total of 12 successful missions. For a This probability of a robust market launch vehicle program to average one rises even more when we factor in activ- mission per month is unheard of these ity by a second group of launch vehicle days. Meanwhile, the Ariane 5’s seven programs that account for an average of missions were at around maximum ca- one to five missions annually. These less pacity for that program. active but established programs include Whenever the most active launchers NASA’s shuttle, Sea Launch’s Zenit 3, happen to have a good year together, ULA’s Atlas V and Delta IV, Japan’s H- the probability of a robust launch market 2A, Russia’s Cosmos 3M and Dnepr 1, increases significantly. That is what oc- India’s PSLV, Eurockot Launch Services’ curred last year, and (with the exception Rockot 1, Space Exploration Technolo- of the Delta II) this year it appears to be gies’ Falcon 1, and the Air Force’s Mino- happening again. taur I. Most of these programs posted

22 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 SPACElayout1010rev.qxd:AA Template 9/17/10 12:52 AM Page 3

average to good launch activity last year. We anticipate the first launch of From a relative standpoint, the shut- Orbital Sciences’ new Taurus II VEHICLES LAUNCHED (by program) tle, Atlas V, and Rockot 1 had an excel- during the first quarter of next 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* lent year in 2009. The space shuttle year. Both of these vehicles Soyuz 11 11 11 8 12 6 Proton 76710106 launched five successful missions, more have been contracted by NASA Delta II 368 58 0 than at any time since 2002—the year to provide commercial resupply Ariane 5 556 67 2 before the loss of Columbia. Atlas V’s services for the ISS as part of Atlas V 224 25 2 five missions were more than the vehicle the Commercial Orbital Trans- Space shuttle 1 3 3 4 5 3 had ever launched in its eight-year ca- portation Services program. Long March 5 6 10 11 4 4 Zenit 3 451 64 0 reer. And the three missions for Rockot Delta IV 031 03 2 were a record for that 20-year program. Civil and military H-2A 142 13 0 Had we only taken into account ac- payloads rule Rockot 1 210 03 1 tivity by the established launcher pro- So what is driving all this activ- PSLV 1 102 32 0 Cosmos 3M 3 1 3 3 1 1 grams, 2009 would have been a fairly ity? Why do so many of the Dnepr 1 123 21 3 dynamic year. Not since 2000 has there launch vehicle programs seem Falcon 1 011 21 0 been a year when more launches were to be so busy at about the same Minotaur I 221 01 0 attempted. The addition of three new time? It is understandable that Naro 1 000 01 1 launch vehicle programs made last year some rockets would be more Safir 2 000 01 0 Taepo Dong 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 stand out just a little more as the most active than others in a given Taurus XL 000 01 0 active period for the global launch ser- year. But lately it seems like a Tsyklon 010 01 0 vices industry in recent years, with a total larger number of vehicles than Atlas IIIB 100 00 0 of 75 missions attempted. usual are launching at relatively Falcon 9 000 00 1 GSLV 1 011 00 1 Three new vehicles made their initial high rates in roughly the same M-5 120 00 1 flights last year—South Korea’s Naro 1, period. Molniya M 111 10 0 Iran’s Safir 2, and North Korea’s Taepo If you look at the types of Pegasus XL 1 1 1 2 0 0 Dong 2. Although their impact on the payloads launched to Earth or- Shavit 1 001 00 1 launch market is slight, these programs bit during 2009 and the first six Shtil 1 010 00 0 Start 1 010 00 0 do contribute to the upward trend in months of this year, the largest Titan 4B 200 00 0 launch activity we are now seeing. percentage is civil. Last year, Volna 100 00 0 Both South Korea and Iran are cur- 43% of all payloads launched Zenit 2 001 00 0 rently developing satellites they would were civil. During the first half Total 55 66 68 66 75 35 *Through June. like to launch aboard their own vehicles of this year, 52% were civil pay- for the sake of national pride, as well as loads. By comparison, only the more pragmatic purpose of gaining 27% of the payloads launched last year payloads launched have remained on independent access to space. Conse- were commercial, and 26% were mili- pace with last year’s numbers. quently, we believe that at least the Naro tary. During the first six months this The preponderance of civil payloads and Safir programs may eventually pro- year, 35% of the payloads were military is due largely to a rise in the number of duce vehicles that could compete in the and only 13% were commercial. ISS missions launched by both the shut- market. In short, there are clearly more civil tle and Soyuz. Normally, there are three South Korea seems especially deter- and military payloads being launched, or four space shuttle missions launched mined to move forward with Naro. After and far fewer commercial ones. In 2009, annually to transport assembly hardware the vehicle’s failed maiden launch on Au- the number of civil payloads launched for the ISS, and six Soyuz missions to gust 25, 2009, the government moved grew by 13%, military payloads by 33%. transport crews and supplies to the sta- quickly to launch a second Naro earlier The number of commercial payloads tion. In 2009 there were four shuttle and this year. That mission failed as well, but launched last year was down 30%. This eight Soyuz flights to the ISS. As of the it suggests that South Korea is deter- trend continued through the mined to field an operational vehicle as first half of this year. In fact, soon as possible. It is easy to speculate even fewer commercial PAYLOADS LAUNCHED (by type) that Naro could accelerate North Korea’s satellites were launched dur- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* Commercial 19 24 35 40 28 7 efforts to develop its Taepo Dong 2. ing the first six months of Civil 29 44 48 39 45 27 The introduction of new launch vehi- 2010 than during the same Military 22 27 37 18 27 18 cles continued this year with the success- period last year, while many University 3 18 5 7 5 0 ful maiden flight of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 more military payloads Total 73 113 125 104 105 52 medium- to heavy-lift rocket on June 4. were placed in orbit. Civil *Through June.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 23 SPACElayout1010rev.qxd:AA Template 9/17/10 12:59 AM Page 4

NASA has contracted with both the Taurus II (left) and Falcon 9 for resupply missions to the ISS.

end of June this year, there had been The Safir reportedly launched Omid, three shuttle and five Soyuz flights to the the 37.2-kg experimental communica- station, surpassing last year’s pace. tions satellite for the Iranian Space Or- The shuttle will be launched for the ganization. The North Korean govern- last time in 2011, and will cease playing ment stated that the Kwangmyongsong a role in carrying assembly hardware to 2 civil communications microsatellite the ISS. But this kind of payload was go- was aboard the failed Taepo Dong. And ing to drop off anyway, given the sched- the Falcon carried a demonstration uled completion of the station next year. Dragon capsule in preparation for a se- Launches of civil payloads to the ISS ries of Dragon missions to the ISS for will continue for the foreseeable future, NASA. but these will consist of crewmembers While civil payloads are clearly the and supplies. Soyuz rockets will continue most numerous in the launch market, it to launch an average of six Progress re- is military payloads that have shown the supply and Soyuz crew capsules annu- most dramatic growth during the past ally, while new vehicles such as Falcon 9 two years. There is no single factor that and Taurus II will help with resupply mis- accounts for this. The U.S. and Russia sions using the Dragon and Cygnus cap- are launching roughly the same number sules, respectively. of military satellites they usually launch— A secondary factor in the growth of 8-10 each. The difference lately is that civil payload numbers involves the recent most of the countries that are capable of push by the governments of Iran, North building and launching military satellites Korea, and South Korea and by SpaceX have been actively doing so. to field new rockets. When governments From 2009 through June 2010, develop launch vehicles, it is usually for China, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, deploying civil and military payloads. and Japan, as well as the U.S. and Rus- The initial payloads assigned to these ve- sia, have built and launched military hicles are often small scientific or tech- satellites. Germany and Japan have each nology development satellites that, at launched more than one military satel- least officially, are designed for civil, not lite; France has launched three. This military, purposes. This has been the phenomenon is similar to what is hap- case with the Naro 1, Safir 2, Taepo pening with launch vehicle programs— Dong 2, and Falcon 9. nearly everyone happens to be active at Both the failed Naro missions carried about the same time. Marco Cáceres 100-kg STSAT scientific satellites for the Teal Group Korean Aerospace Research Institute. [email protected]

24 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 The Fundamentals of Aircraft Combat Survivabilityy Analysis and Design, Second Editionon Winner of Best the Summerfield Seller! Book Award

Ball illustrates clearly the The only book on the “ complexity of dealing “ aircraft survivability with an attack on discipline that speaks to aircraft …. Although both the operator and the publication focuses the engineer. The bible ROBERT E. BALL on military aircraft, Naval Postgraduate School of aircraft survivability! both fi xed-wing and 2003, 889 pages, Hardback — MAJOR ROBERT ” helicopters, there are ISBN: 978-1-56347-582-5 “WANNA” MANN clear implications List Price: $104 Chief, B-2 Branch, and lessons to be AIAA Member Price: $79.95 Wright-Patterson AFB gleaned for commercial airliners, which have This book belongs on the The best book on now also become potential “ desk of everyone who works “ this subject available targets. in the survivability fi eld. in the public domain. — ROBERT” WALL, in Aviation — DENNIS A. FENN ” — LINA CHANG ” Week and Space Technology Strategic Development, Lockheed Martin Boeing Phantom Works

Also available in eBook format at ebooks.aiaa.org

Fundamentals of Aircraft and From RAINBOW to GUSTO: Airship Design: Volume I—Aircraft Stealth and the Design of the Design Lockheed Blackbird LELAND M. NICOLAI and PAUL A. SUHLER GRANT E. CARICHNER Library of Flight AIAA Education Series 2009, 284 pages, Paperback 2010, 883 pages, Hardback ISBN: 978-1-60086-712-5 ISBN: 978-1-60086-751-4 List Price: $39.95 List Price: $119.95 AIAA Member Price: $29.95 AIAA Member Price: $89.95

Order 24 hours a day at aiaa.org/books 10-0509

10-0506ad ver5.indd 1 9/16/10 4:33 PM LEWISlayout1010.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 9/14/10 12:08 PM Page 2

The X-51A flight test vehicle is uploaded to a B-52 at Edwards AFB, July 17 for fit testing. USAF photo/Chad Bellay.

scramsX-51 into by Mark Lewis Willis Young Professor the future University of Maryland

26 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 Copyright© 2010 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. LEWISlayout1010.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 9/14/10 12:09 PM Page 3

On the long road to achieving practical hypersonic flight,progress has been incremental,with each advance building on the work of earlier programs that were canceled or curtailed.But the recent first flight of the X-51A,with its airbreathing scramjet engine,is a milestone that skeptics in this field cannot ignore.

strator, which was canceled in 2000 (and also Edwards AFB, May 26: A converted B-52 bomber taxis down a runway in the high Cali- initiated the Navy’s HyFly program), X-51 had fornia desert, carrying beneath its wings the begun as the Scramjet Engine Demonstrator first of four experimental X-51A flight test ve- (SED). That program was part of a joint hicles, and with it the hopes of the airbreath- USAF-NASA effort that shared an engine ing hypersonics research community. similar to NASA’s canceled X-43C, a planned Even mounted on its solid rocket booster, hydrocarbon-fueled follow-on to X-43A. X-51A is dwarfed by the B-52 mothership. In a very real sense, the X-51 program in- With a nose often described as shark-like, the corporated lessons learned from many pre- test vehicle is about 14 ft long, sporting a ceding efforts (including the ill-fated X-30 Na- chin-mounted rectangular inlet and four small tional Aero-Space Plane). This first vehicle control surfaces at the rear. The airframe is a was designated an X-plane by the USAF to type of “waverider,” designed to ride on top of denote its experimental intentions; the letter the shockwave that is generated at supersonic A indicates it is the first in a series of X-51 speeds for highly efficient aerodynamic per- craft, with later versions incorporating new formance. One of X-51A’s greatest advances engine designs and improved systems. In 2008 the SJX61 successfully completed ground tests simulating is its engine—a supersonic combustion ramjet, The plan was for X-51A to be carried Mach-5 flight conditions at or scramjet—which is designed to power the aloft on the B-52 and dropped at nearly NASA Langley. craft through the atmosphere at hypersonic 50,000 ft altitude over the Pacific Ocean, speeds, in the Mach-5 realm and beyond. where a converted Army solid rocket booster On that May morning X-51A saw its first would light off, carrying the stack to nearly flight test, the culmination of a nearly seven- Mach 5. At that point, X-51A’s airbreathing year R&D effort whose continuing goal is the scramjet engine would take over and provide realization of practical hypersonic flight. up to 250 additional seconds of powered, ac- Spawned from a DARPA activity called the celerating hypersonic flight, with a goal of Affordable Rapid Response Missile Demon- reaching Mach 6 before engine cutoff. Though

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 27 LEWISlayout1010.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 9/14/10 12:09 PM Page 4

AB-52H Stratofortress performed a airframe manufacturer Boeing and engine captive carry flight of the X-51A in lead Pratt & Whitney, as well as other guests, December 2009 over Edwards AFB. collectively seeming to will the B-52 into the USAF photo/Mike Cassidy. air. Among them was Parker Buckley, who had retired as the chief of AFRL’s Aerospace Propulsion Office and had overseen X-51 when it began as the SED program. Also present were Pratt & Whitney Rock- etdyne’s manager of defense marketing and strategy, Joaquin Castro, who reminisced about the origins of the program, and Boe- it did not quite reach those goals, X-51A ing’s Kevin Bowcutt, who recounted his origi- would set a new milestone in high-speed flight nal design work on X-51A’s airframe. Randy that day. Voland, who had retired from NASA, offered observations from his experiences as lead en- Mounting suspense gineer on X-43 six years earlier. Just getting to flight was quite a challenge; a In the main control room, the Edwards previous day’s attempt was scrubbed right be- AFB flight test crew monitored every sensor fore takeoff because a freighter had sailed into on board, overseen by Lt. Col. Todd Venema, the projected splash zone. As the various engi- director of the Hypersonic Combined Test neers from the Air Force, NASA, and industry Force. Among the Edwards team was the leg- gathered after that abort, there was a palpable endary Johnny Armstrong, who began his sense of gloom. The range at Edwards would storied career in Air Force flight test with the be available only one more day; after that, a supersonic X-2 and had participated in every new launch window would have to be identi- major high-speed flight out of the California fied for some undefined future time. base in the past five-and-a-half decades. With the threat of indefinite postpone- ment looming, the test crew also noted that The test begins the weather report was discouraging— As the B-52 began its climb out over Point predicted cloud cover could force another Mugu on the coast of California, all eyes in flight cancellation. Even worse, the space shut- the control room were on the computer tle was due to land in Florida that next day, but graphic of the projected flight path, a race- its possible alternate landing at Edwards could track pattern over the Pacific Ocean. The supersede X-51A’s flight clearance. plan was for the pilots to fly one practice run, As the May 25 evening gathering was line up at the drop point, and then circle back winding down, Curtis Berger, Pratt & Whit- round and do it a second time for real. Their ney’s lead for hypersonics—and the man who launch was to occur in a very precise imagi- had overseen the development and test of nary box in the atmosphere, and with a very X-51A’s SJY61 scramjet engine—announced specific requirement for the aircraft’s speed at his unwavering confidence in a successful the time of launch. Both the required altitude flight for the next day. “I know we’re going to and speed pushed the performance limits of fly tomorrow; I just feel it,” Berger insisted to the B-52 and taxed the skills of its talented all who would listen. flight crew. In fact, the usual Air Force chase As it turned out, Berger was absolutely planes would have been unable to follow the right. Morning dawned bringing news that the bomber, so NASA provided its Dryden-based shuttle had landed safely in Florida. The sky at F-18s to fill that role. Edwards was absolutely cloudless, removing On its practice leg, the B-52 passed fears of a weather scrub. As the launch win- exactly through the desired point in space dow approached, patrol planes operating out where the launch was to occur; but as it of the Navy’s Point Mugu station confirmed swung around for the second run, the aircraft that the test area was clear of all traffic. The appeared slightly off course. Amid puzzled flight was a go. By about 10 a.m. local time, cries of “What’s he doing?” from the control the B-52 was aloft, piloted by Lt. Col. Dan room, the B-52 gradually corrected course, Millman with copilot Maj. Swami Iyer of the compensating for some unexpected winds. By 419th Flight Test Squadron. the time the bomber was at the launch point, Huddled over displays inside the observ- Lt. Col. Millman had it at a near-perfect bull’s- ers’ monitoring room were engineers from eye within the desired launch box. AFRL and NASA, representatives from prime From that point, events happened very

28 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 LEWISlayout1010.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 9/14/10 12:09 PM Page 5

quickly. The X-51A dropped from the B-52; In February 1949 Bumper became 4 sec later the booster lit flawlessly and the ve- the first vehicle to enter the hicle was off, rocketing quickly out of sight of hypersonic realm. the chase planes. X-51A’s separation from its booster was also flawless; the scramjet ignited exactly as expected using ethylene to begin the combustion process, then switched smoothly to hydrocarbon JP-7, the same jet fuel that powered the SR-71 Blackbird. Engi- neers in the control room noted immediately that the X-51A was accelerating uphill on its scramjet engine, forever proving that hyper- sonic airbreathing engines can produce thrust greater than drag. On the aircraft, pilots Millman and Iyer had decided at the last minute to flip down their helmet visors before the drop—good thinking as it turned out, since the booster was indeed very bright. They also reported feeling the X-51A drop away from their air- craft, then felt the concussion as its solid rocket motor lit off while they rolled the B-52 away from the drop point. Total flight time of X-51A was approxi- very first hypersonic mission,” he said. “We mately 200 sec, including about a minute on [view] this leap in engine technology as equiv- its first-stage rocket booster. This flight time alent to the post-WW II jump from propeller- exceeded each of the X-43’s powered flight driven aircraft to jet engines.” durations by a factor of about 13. During its Is the X-51A’s first flight really that signifi- airbreathing flight, engineers noted that the cant? Almost certainly the answer is yes. In X-51A’s flowpath temperatures were steady many ways it represents the next logical step and behaved exactly as expected, and that in the quest to fly at hypersonic speeds engine pressures (and thus thrust) were actu- through the atmosphere. In a very real sense ally higher than had been measured on the the X-51 program has built on the experience ground in the 8-Ft Tunnel at NASA Langley. of previous hypersonic flight tests going back The engine ultimately cut off about a to the NASA-Air Force-Navy X-15 and includ- minute and a half short of its intended goal of ing NASA’s X-43A, which reached Mach 7, 300 sec. As a result, acceleration, though and later Mach 10, in 2004 under scramjet positive, was somewhat shy of predictions, power. Indeed, a number of the NASA engi- and the vehicle did not reach its ultimate neers who had designed and flown the X-43 desired Mach-6 speed. That premature termi- worked in support of the X-51 program, and nation did little to spoil the excitement and significant tests of the X-51 were conducted in satisfaction of those who had just witnessed NASA wind tunnels, drawing on that agency’s what, by any description, was overall a suc- hard-won expertise. cessful flight. Every critical point in the flight Where the X-43 craft operated a scramjet worked flawlessly, including, most signifi- engine for only a few seconds on fast-burning cantly, the transition to sustained airbreathing hydrogen fuel, X-51 uses more conventional, propulsion. Engineers are still examining flight and more easily handled and packaged, hydro- data to identify the cause of the early termina- carbon jet fuel, for a duration representative of tion, but strong evidence suggests it was an an actual missile flight. In addition, the X-43 engine-airframe integration problem, related engines were heat-soak designs—meaning the to a nozzle seal that failed soon after engine solid metal of the engine walls absorbed some start. of the intense heat of combustion, but would ultimately have melted if the engine had con- Major leap forward tinued operating past a few seconds. In con- Program Manager Charlie Brink, normally trast, X-51 is a thermally balanced design, with known to be unflappable, was understandably active cooling of the engine walls provided by upbeat. “We are ecstatic to have accom- the fuel itself, meaning the engine could oper- plished most of our test points on the X-51A’s ate for as long as fuel is supplied.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 29 LEWISlayout1010.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 9/14/10 12:09 PM Page 6

rectly related to the hypersonic components. For instance, its on-board digital controller is an off-the-shelf computer from a fighter air- craft, not quite state-of-the-art, but extremely reliable and relatively inexpensive.

A long history To fully understand the importance of X-51’s first flight test, it is useful to consider its place in the history of high-speed flight. Hypersonic flight has been a reality since the first space- The X-15 (above) and X-43 were craft and ballistic missiles reentered from precursors to the X-51 in the space. Bumper, a WAC Corporal sounding effort to master hypersonic flight. rocket mounted on top of a captured WW II German V-2, became the first vehicle to enter the hypersonic realm, in February 1949. Since that time, every astronaut returning from orbit or beyond, and every probe enter- ing a planetary atmosphere, has done so at hypersonic speeds. But while these applications have all been for short durations, or while decelerating, the current focus on hypersonic flight is aimed at sustained flight using engines that burn fuel with oxygen from the atmosphere. To this Another significant difference is engine end, the X-51 vehicles, like the X-43s before startup: Where X-43 primed its engines with them, are powered by scramjets, generally highly volatile silane, X-51 uses a more man- seen as the most promising engines for air- ageable ethylene to begin the combustion pro- breathing hypersonic flight. cess. Further, X-51 is much closer to a final Two researchers at the National Advisory missile configuration, directly pointing the Committee on Aeronautics, or NACA. the way to practical near-term hypersonic designs. precursor to NASA, wrote the first detailed There were also important similarities be- theoretical description of a scramjet engine in tween the two vehicles. Both were rocket- 1958. Working at the Langley Center, R.J. boosted to scramjet speeds off the wing of a Weber and J.S. McKay produced technical B-52. Both were developed from waverider note number 4386, which described a means aerodynamic shapes. In the case of X-43, the of flying a ramjet engine at higher speeds by airframe was a scaled-down version of a cruise keeping the flow moving through the engine vehicle, which was itself loosely based on a at supersonic speeds. waverider-derived concept for the X-30 Na- Ten years later, one of the X-15 rocket tional Aero-Space Plane. X-51 was designed planes was scheduled to fly the Hypersonic directly with a waverider forebody, for very ef- Research Engine on a ventrally mounted py- ficient aerodynamics and inlet performance, lon. The X-15 program was canceled before but both airframes benefit from using that ad- a functioning engine could be flown, but not vanced aerodynamic shape. before a flight test with a dummy engine that The engineers behind X-51 followed best almost ended in catastrophe. practices for successful flight test. Extensive Throughout the 1970s, theoretical and measurements were performed in NASA and ground-based experimental work proceeded DOD ground facilities to fully characterize in- on scramjets at reduced levels at NASA and flight performance. The vehicles have been various laboratories around the globe. They thoroughly instrumented to maximize the data were envisioned as the engines of choice for return. But in keeping with the most recent the ill-fated X-30 NASP in the 1980s, and in advances in the field, X-51 has also been thor- several follow-on concepts. However, it was oughly analyzed with powerful computational not until a small team from the University of tools, using basic research codes developed to Queensland flew a scramjet on a sounding capture as much of the real physics as possi- rocket in July 2002 at the Woomera Range in ble. At the same time, X-51 minimized risk the Australian Outback that supersonic com- where possible, especially for elements not di- bustion was achieved in flight.

30 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 LEWISlayout1010.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 9/14/10 12:09 PM Page 7

That first flight test produced thrust that rocket flights under the joint HiFire program. was smaller than the engine’s drag, by design, And the U.S. Navy, with DARPA support, but still served as a definitive proof of the pos- was pursuing the HyFly program, though af- sibility of combustion in a supersonic flow. It ter three flight faliures unrelated to its hyper- was followed soon after by NASA’s X-43 vehi- sonic engine, that program is now dormant. cles, each of which was a subscale version of a The X-51 program itself has a long way fully integrated airframe blended with a hydro- to go, with three more flight vehicles ready to gen-powered scramjet, and each of which fly, and more concepts for evolved airframes showed that scramjet thrust could be greater and engines on the drawing board, including than drag, albeit for only a short time, and an X-51B with a modified, 3D inlet. with high-energy hydrogen fuel. The X-51 ve- As these programs evolve, there can be hicles are full scale, and can be seen as leading little doubt that the hypersonic frontier will be directly to a high-speed weapon system. systematically pushed back, and that the potential uses of hypersonic technology for Burgeoning efforts both civilian and military applications will be Today, there are hypersonic flight programs refined and explored. in progress in the U.S. and throughout the Among skeptics in this field there is a world. DARPA’s HTV-2 unpowered hyper- saying that “hypersonics is the future…and sonic reentry glider flew an aborted test on always will be.” But the May 26 flight ensured April 22 of this year; the USAF’s unmanned that no one will ever be able to question reusable X-37 successfully began its flight the whether a high-speed airbreathing engine can same day. In the Woomera range, researchers power a vehicle in sustained atmospheric from the USAF, NASA, and the Australian flight. As Curtis Berger of Pratt & Whitney Defence Science and Technology Organisa- said in the control room that day, “Hyperson- tion have already begun a series of sounding ics is the future, and the future is now.”

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 31 Honoring Achievement: An AIAA Tradition AIAA is proud to honor the very best in our industry: those individuals and teams who have taken aerospace technology to the next level…who have advanced the quality and depth of the aerospace profession…who have leveraged their aerospace knowledge for the benefi t of society.

AIAA Awards presented between July 2010 and September 2010 include:

Aerospace Communications Energy Systems Award Award Essam Khalil Harvey Berger Professor, Department of Mechanical Technical Fellow Engineering Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems Cairo University Redondo Beach, California Cairo, Egypt

Aerospace Guidance, Navigation, Engineer of the Year Award and Control Award Michael G. Gilbert Anthony Calise NESC Principal Engineer and MLAS Chief Professor Engineer Georgia Institute of Technology NASA Langley Research Center Atlanta, Georgia Hampton, Virginia

Aerospace Power Systems Award Gardner-Lasser Aerospace Edward Gaddy Literature Award Applied Physics Laboratory J. D. Hunley Johns Hopkins University Chief Historian (Retired) Laurel, Maryland NASA Dryden Flight Research Center Edwards, California Air Breathing Propulsion Award Bobby Berrier George M. Low Space Aeronautical Engineer Transportation Award NASA Langley Research Center (retired) Michael Gass Alliant Techsystems, Inc President and Chief Executive Offi cer Hampton, Virginia United Launch Alliance Centennial, Colorado Aircraft Design Award Daniel Raymer Haley Space Flight Award President STS-125 Team Conceptual Research Corporation Award Accepted by: Playa del Ray, California John Grunsfeld, Deputy Director Space Telescope Science Institute de Florez Award for Flight Simulation Hap Arnold Award for Rodger Mueller Excellence in Aeronautical Electronics Engineer Program Management Aerospace Simulation Research Michael B. Leahy Jr. & Development Branch Chief Architect NASA Ames Research Center Advanced Programs and Technology Division Hampton, Virginia Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems El Segundo, California

10-0370 Honoring Achievement: An AIAA Tradition Honoring and awarding such achievement is an important AIAA tradition. Every quarter, award recipients are showcased through our Honors and Awards Program, so that all members have the opportunity to recognize their peers.

AIAA Awards presented between July 2010 and September 2010 include:

Jeffries Life Sciences and Medical Space Systems Award Research Award STPSat-1 Team Kenneth A. Souza Award accepted by: Chief Scientist, ISS Research Project Paul Lithgow, President for Fundamental Space Biology Comtech AeroAstro, Inc. Logyx, LLC NASA Ames Research Center Von Braun Award for Moffett Field, California Excellence in Space Program Management Mechanics and Control of Flight Wanda Austin Award President and CEO I. Michael Ross The Aerospace Corporation Professor, Naval Postgraduate School El Segundo, California Monterey, California Wyld Propulsion Award Fariba Fahroo Russell Ellis Professor, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, Consultant California, and Program Manager Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne (Retired) Air Force Offi ce of Scientifi c Research Saratoga, California Arlington, Virginia

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization Award Achille Messac Distinguished Professor and Department Chair To request a brochure on AIAA’s Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering honors and awards program, Syracuse University please contact AIAA Honors and Syracuse, New York Awards at [email protected] Piper General Aviation Award or 703.264.7623. Skycatcher Design Team Information can also be found Cessna Aircraft Company at www.aiaa.org (select Wichita, Kansas Award accepted by: “Honors and Awards” under Derek Mookhoek, Program Manager “Quick Links”). Neal Willford, Project Engineer

Propellants and Combustion Award David G. Lilley Professor, School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Oklahoma State University Stillwater, Oklahoma Hayeslayout2.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 9/14/10 12:33 PM Page 2

Critical times for India’s space program

Early versions of India’s GSLV were built using a Russian cryogenic third stage.

34 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 Copyright© 2010 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. Hayeslayout2.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 9/14/10 12:33 PM Page 3

Although a recent launch failure has dealt India’s space program

a setback,the country is determined to move beyond its success

in the small satellite launch arena and become a serious player

in the global heavy-lift market as well.Its ambitious plans include

perfecting its cryogenic technology and developing its own

manned spaceflight capability.

n April 15, the Indian Space Re- it increasingly important for India to develop search Organization’s (ISRO) launch its own cryogenic propulsive technology. Fol- of a rocket with a cryogenic third lowing the GSLV-D3 failure, ISRO will be tar- stage designed and built in India geting a second flight of the indigenous cryo- ended in failure. genic upper stage as soon as possible. Although the cryogenic stage of the geo- According to an ISRO release issued synchronousO satellite launch vehicle GSLV-D3 shortly after the failure, “Detailed analysis of appeared to have ignited, according to ISRO the flight data is being carried out to find out Chairman K. Radhakrishnan the rocket began the exact reasons for the failure and take cor- to lose altitude seconds after the third-stage ig- rective measures to realize the next flight test nition, having reached a height of 87 mi. and of the indigenous cryogenic engine and stage a speed of around 11,000 mph. within the next one year.” This was a major blow to ISRO’s plans to compete in the global satellite launch business Small beginnings and to develop a manned spaceflight capabil- So far the ISRO has developed its programs ity. The Mark-3 version of the GSLV is in- on a relatively small budget, especially com- tended to make ISRO self-reliant in launching pared to its nearest competitor, China. But as heavy satellite payloads in the 4,500-5,000- the payload sizes increase and the scientific kg weight class—the April 15 launch was car- programs become more complex, the govern- rying a 2,224-kg GSAT-4 experimental com- ment will need to find increasing amounts of munications and navigation satellite, which money to fund the country’s space ambitions. was destroyed during the launch failure. India is competing in the small-satellite launch Earlier versions of the GSLV have been market, having won contracts with Germany, built using a Russian cryogenic third stage. In- Israel, Italy, and Singapore, among others, for dia acquired seven of these stages during the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) flights, 1990s; it launched five on board earlier GSLV and this has provided some modest but useful flights, with varying degrees of success, and revenue streams. now has two in storage. “For the launch of small satellites into The ISRO has a very challenging set of LEO, India offers a low-cost and reliable solu- programs, including the GAGAN (GPS-aided tion with PSLV, on par with Russian con- geoaugmented navigation) satellite constella- verted missiles,” says one space industry mar- by tion, two further Moon observation missions, ket expert. “However, to become a player in Philip Butterworth-Hayes and a manned spaceflight project. This makes the much larger commercial GTO [geosyn- Contributing writer

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 35 Hayeslayout2.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 9/14/10 12:33 PM Page 4

chronous transfer orbit] mar- satellite carrying payloads in UHF, S-band, C- ketplace, India will need a band and Ku-band, to be launched next year more capable launch vehicle onboard the GSLV. than GSLV-Mark 2.” India has been relatively Growing ambitions late entering the space race. In recent years, India’s ISRO has started to From the start, its space pro- play a wider role in the global space market. gram has been driven overtly The first ISRO Moon probe, Chandrayaan-1, by supporting domestic infra- launched on a modified version of the PSLV structure programs such as re- in October 2008, was the first truly scientific mote sensing, communica- mission ISRO has undertaken. The unmanned tions, distance learning, lunar exploration mission comprises a lunar telemedicine—using satellites orbiter and an impact probe. The orbiter car- to set up video conference ries five ISRO payloads and other payloads communications for medical from NASA, ESA, and the Bulgarian Aero- staff in remote locations—and space Agency, underlining India’s new com- security. mitment to international cooperation in its “In India, the space pro- space programs. It is also equipped with a gram has not been a geopolit- NASA mini-SAR (synthetic aperture radar), ical tool; it supports the social and Chandrayaan-1 has been transmitting im- and economic development ages from the Moon for more than two requirements of the country,” years—the most recent and spectacular reveal according to Rachel Villain, ice deposits near the Moon’s north pole. director of space and commu- A follow-on Chandrayaan-2—with a lan- nications at Paris-based space der/rover mission ISRO is developing with as- consultancy Euroconsult. “In- sistance from Russia—is planned for 2012, The INSAT constellation provides digenous capability is sought with Chandrayaan-3 coming later, although telecommunications, broadcasting, in launch vehicle and applications satellites these missions are now subject to delays fol- search and rescue, and meteor- (communications, Earth observation and navi- lowing the failure of the April 15 launch. ological services. gation). However, as experienced in other India’s manned space program offers a countries, a capability gap still exists between further definitive break from the past focus on GSLV and Insat that makes Insat 4 satellites domestic infrastructure programs, though one too large to be launched by the domestic more in line with its growing importance as a launch vehicle.” regional and global economic power. Among The Indian National Satellite System (IN- its neighbors, China and Japan have sent mis- SAT) constellation is a network of communi- sions to the Moon, and South Korea has em- cations satellites providing telecommunica- barked on its own space program. tions, broadcasting, search and rescue, and meteorological services throughout India. The Manned space program takes shape first in the constellation, INSAT-1A, was flown In February 2009, the Indian government ap- in April 1982, and launches are continuing, proved the $3-billion budget for ISRO’s with the INSAT-4F, a 2,330-kg multiband manned space mission. ISRO wants to launch

LAUNCH VEHICLES Launcher Description Satellite launch The four-stage,solid-propellant SLV launched India’s first satellite,the 40-kg Rohini-1B,in 1980. vehicle Advanced satellite After four SLV-3 launches India developed the Advanced SLV,which launched four times between 1987 and 1994 but with launchvehicle twofailures. Polar satellite ISRO’s first fully operational launcher,the four-stage PSLV can take 1,600-kg satellites to 620-km Sun-synchronous polar launchvehicle orbit(SSPO)or1,050-kgsatellitestoGTO.WithChandrayaan-1aPSLVwithstrap-onmotorsenhancedthepayload capability to 1,750 kg in 620-km SSPO.The PSLV has been India’s entrée into the global satellite launch market,with 16 foreign and 14 Indian satellite payloads launched up to the end of 2009. Geosynchronous TheGSLVwasdesignedtoplaceapayloadofupto5,000kginLEOand2,200kgintoGTO.Fiveflightshavetakenplace satellite launch using the Russian cryogenic stage.The first,developmental,flight took place in April 2001,launching a 1,540-kg GSAT-1. vehicle The flight was partially successful,but an upper-stage early shutdown left the satellite 4,000 km short of the planned GTO apogee.Flights two and three were fully successful but flight four—the launch of a 2,168-kg INSAT-4C satellite—failed. Flight five,carrying the replacement INSAT-4C,was fully successful.

36 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 Hayeslayout2.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 9/14/10 12:33 PM Page 5

ISRO SATELLITE PROGRAMS

Satellitetype Program Applications

Earthobservation Cartosat-2B Enhancedcartographicandothercivilapplications. RISAT 1 and 2 A microwave remote sensing satellite carrying an Israeli-supplied SAR for border control and other security applications. Resourcesat-2 Agricultural crop distribution and production,forest mapping,water resources. SARAL Oceanic and climate conditions. Scientific ASTROSAT MultiwavelengthobservationsofthecelestialbodiesandcosmicsourcesinX-rayandUVspectralbands simultaneously. Chandrayaan-2 Orbiter/lander/rover capabilities to improve our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Moon. Megha-Tropiques An ISRO/French National Space Centre joint venture to improve understanding of the life cycle of convective systems and their role in the associated energy and moisture budget of the atmosphere in tropical regions. Corona Study of the solar corona in visible and near IR bands. YOUTHSAT A joint Russian-Indian microsatellite carrying scientific payloads with participation from universities at graduate,postgraduate,and research scholar levels. Navigation GAGAN Indigenous satellite-based regional GPS augmentation system as part of India’s program of Satellite-Based Communications,Navigation and Surveillance/Air Traffic Management plan for civil aviation.First GAGAN navigation payload is due to be launched this year. Communications INSAT A constellation of 199 transponders to support wide-ranging communications applications throughout India. INSAT-3D is due to be launched 2010-2011 for meteorological applications in 2010-2011.INSAT-2 satellites provide telephone links to remote areas and communications for transport operators and television broadcast signals. GSAT Supporting a wide range of broadcast satellites.GSAT-5/INSAT-4D will carry 12 normal C-band transponders and six extended C-band transponders with wider coverage in uplink and downlink over Asia,Africa,and Eastern Europe. GSAT-6/INSAT-4E is a multimedia broadcast satellite.

a two-person mission into space, with Indian astronauts staying aloft for seven days in an orbit of 275 km. The original date for this was set for 2015, though this looks likely to slip to 2017 at the earliest. “It depends whether the 2017 deadline is a ‘must be,’” says Euroconsult’s Villain. “In China it took over 10 years to develop a manned capability, and there was no issue of having to undertake parliamentary approval for budget spending. It’s a lengthy process to develop a manned rated capability, and out- side help can accelerate it.” The failure of the GSLV-D3 launch may mean ISRO will have to compromise further its policy of autonomy, looking increasingly to support from Russia. India is working closely with that country on the astronaut program, following an agreement signed between the Chandrayaan-1 has been transmitting images from the two countries in December 2008. Russia will January 2007, ISRO launched its 600-kg Moon for more than two years. help develop the astronaut selection program, Space Capsule Recovery Experiment aboard and ISRO has reserved a Russian Energia a PSLV rocket, to test the agency’s ability to Soyuz TMA spacecraft flight in 2013 for two develop carbon phenolic ablative material and Indian astronauts in a classified “space tourist” silica tiles, heat-resistant materials needed for deal, to fly with a Russian cosmonaut. India’s reentry. The full manned spaceflight program first astronaut was Sqn. Ldr. Rakesh Sharma, encompasses the development of an orbital who traveled into space aboard the Russian vehicle, a new mission control center, an as- Soyuz T-11 in April 1984. tronaut training site, and a new launch pad at Work has been under way on the manned the ISRO’s Satish Dhawan Space Centre in space program in India for some years. In Sriharikota.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 37 Hayeslayout2.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 9/14/10 12:33 PM Page 6

The preliminary designs of the 3-ton or- WORLD GOVERNMENT bital vehicle (OV) have been completed. In EXPENDITURESON CIVIL SPACE PROGRAMS early 2009 a full-scale mockup of the OV (2009) crew capsule was finished, but a great deal of Asia and Australia $Millions work still needs to be finished before the final Australia 36 design is mature. There are conflicting reports China 1,269 on whether the ISRO OV crew capsule will be India 906 a new Indian design or a modification of the Indonesia 18 Japan 2,340 Soyuz capsule. Malaysia 25 ISRO, meanwhile, is setting up an astro- Pakistan 71 naut training facility in Bangalore, close to South Korea 208 Bengaluru International Airport. ISRO is re- Taiwan 42 Thailand 20 cruiting 200 Indian air force pilots as a first Vietnam 19 part of the selection process, with the aim of selecting four astronauts—two plus two re- Europe serves—at the end of the process. Austria 81 Belgium 237 The manned spaceflight program will re- Czech Republic 16 quire a third launch pad at the Satish Dhawan Denmark 47 Space Centre. The preliminary design for the European Union 735 Preliminary designs of the orbital new pad, 1 km south of the spaceport’s sec- Finland 71 France 2,436 vehicle have been completed, ond pad, is now complete, including the pro- but much work still remains. Germany 1,245 vision of a crew entry and crew escape mod- Greece 24 ule system. It should also be capable of Ireland 21 handling reusable launch vehicle flights; ISRO Italy 940 Luxembourg 21 has started designing a landing strip for a re- Netherlands 194 usable launch vehicle at the Sriharikota Range. Poland 9 Portugal 26 Romania 30 Cryogenics and cooperation needed Spain 324 Beyond the first manned spaceflight, ISRO is Sweden 117 planning a series of technology demonstrator Switzerland 137 Turkey 71 U.K. 406

Middle East and Africa Algeria 5 Egypt 3 Iran 100 Israel 11 Nigeria 43 South Africa 5 UAE 60

Latin America Argentina 82 Brazil 85 Chile 15 Peru 1 Venezuela 8

North America U.S.(NASA,18,135;NOAA,1,158; others,790) 20,083 Canada (including ESA 33) 298

Russia and the states of the former Soviet Union Azerbaijan 67 In July 2006, GSLV-F02, carrying Kazakhstan 55 the INSAT-4C communication Russia 2,719 satellite, failed seconds after Ukraine 109 a perfect takeoff as it deviated from its trajectory and plunged Total $35,970 into the Bay of Bengal. Source:Euroconsult’s Profiles of Government Space Programs.

38 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 Hayeslayout2.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 9/14/10 12:33 PM Page 7

missions as part of its plan to develop a two- stage-to-orbit fully reusable launch vehicle. The first of these is the Winged Reusable Launch Vehicle Technology Demonstrator, a flying test bed to evaluate various technolo- gies, including hypersonic flight and au- tonomous landing. The vehicle is reported to incorporate supersonic combustion ramjet technology, which is being tested this year. Meanwhile ISRO has also announced it plans to carry out an unmanned mission to Mars and a manned mission to the Moon by 2020. But many of these programs ultimately will depend on the successful development of Indian cryogenic engine technology. India has been limited to accessing this via international agreements on the transfer of dual-use tech- The Agni missile family has evolved from a short-range nology, which has meant Russia could only ballistic missile, through provide ready-made third stages for the GSLV ity (over 5,000 km)—via the Agni V or the to an intermediate range. series. It has taken nearly 20 years and a re- Surya programs—have been denied by Indian ported $76 million for India to develop its officials, but a test flight of the latest in the own cryogenic rocket stage, so the April fail- Agni range is due before early 2011. ure was a significant setback. The cryogenic In May 2008 the Indian Institute of Sci- stage was built at ISRO’s Liquid Propulsion ence announced that a team from the Dept. Systems Centre in Tamil Nadu. of Aerospace Engineering and Dept. of Inor- To meet its target dates for improved ganic and Physical Chemistry had developed launcher and manned space mission capabili- new materials to reduce the drag on a rocket’s ties, India might well have to increase its co- blunt nose by adding a treated coating of operative efforts with other countries. Its pol- chromium-based material and thereby increas- icy of autonomy has not stopped it entirely ing the range by at least 40%. According to from such cooperation. The PSLV Vikas en- some reports, this new technology would be gine built by ISRO is based on the Viking 4A applied to future versions of the Agni. Early engine manufactured by Snecma of France versions of the missiles are understood to for Ariane. More recently, India has devel- have incorporated SLV launcher technologies. oped closer ties with Israel, using the PSLV to launch the Israeli military surveillance Polaris vvv satellite, for example. In June 2005 India and For many reasons the next few months will be the European Union signed a bilateral agree- critical for India’s space program, as ISRO en- ment of cooperation in the fields of science gineers research the reasons for the failure of and technology, including space science. the April 15 launch. If the failure is due to a In July 2005, then-President George W. relatively minor fault rather than a wider de- Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan sign flaw, then India will be able to accelerate Singh reached an agreement on space explo- work once again on its manned spaceflight ration, satellite navigation, and launch tech- program and other more ambitious missions nology. It would give India access to U.S. such as the RLV. But these are increasingly technology in the commercial market, with In- risky areas where, for some projects, outside dia agreeing to adhere to Missile Technology help is no longer available. Control Regime guidelines. “In terms of the reusable launch vehicle, there will be fewer possibilities of support Military space efforts from other countries as most of the work on India’s civil launch capabilities have developed reusable space launchers began to slow down in parallel with its military launch programs, in the early 2000s as more effort was put into most notably the Agni missile family, which developing more capable expendable launch- has evolved from a short-range (500-700-km) ers,” according to Euroconsult’s Villain. ballistic missile, through to an intermediate But if the fault can be traced quickly and a range (the Agni III, with a range of potentially fix identified, then the door is open for India more than 3,500 km). Reports that India is to play a much-enhanced role in the global developing an intercontinental missile capabil- space science and satellite launch markets.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 39 ROBSINSONrev1010.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 9/14/10 12:14 PM Page 2

Controlling launch vehicle

Over the course of 40 years, we have devolped safe, reliable—but expensive—space transportation systems. By considering life-cycle cost as a fundamental driver early in any future designs, we may be able to develop vehicles that are also both sustainable and affordable.

sion-making tools—specifically, developing innovative Space transportation systems engineering processes in the architectural design, de- historically have been designed for maximum per- velopment, and operation of space transportation formance based on the design history of the 1950s systems. These tools permit quantification of the re- and 1960s, and to throw the maximum weight to or- quirements of both the system operators and the pay- bit while minimizing the propellants required. Pay- load customers. load and vehicle unit cost and development costs The team maintains an active dialogue among were “managed” to meet the performance goals. the personnel involved in all phases of the technol- Except for the Air Force’s evolved expendable ogy, design, development, and operation of space launch vehicle program, a cost-sensitive design goal transportation systems. Since its inception, the SPST was not the overall driver. The Thor, Atlas, and Delta has reviewed and assessed the lessons learned from launch vehicles, the Saturn V Moon rocket, the all of the major U.S. programs, past and present, fo- mostly reus-able space shuttle, as well as some for- cusing on what has been learned from the assessment eign systems were all performance-driven designs, and control of LCC. without serious consideration of overall life-cycle cost (LCC) as a design driver. These vehicles lifted ex- A new approach tremely expensive payloads and demonstrated safe From its analysis of previous programs, the SPST de- and dependable delivery—but at high cost. termined that a development process must focus first A sustainable low-LCC delivery system has been a on developing system requirements. These include the goal for more than four decades. Fully expendable and usual flight performance and functional requirements partially reusable systems have been developed and as well as the total relevant infrastructure on Earth, in operated, but neither approach has achieved this goal. space, or on the Moon/Mars surface, as appropriate. Today, we have an even greater need for safe, de- These requirements determine the overall LCC. pendable, affordable, and sustainable systems. New en- Specific innovative engineering and management tries by commercial spaceflight providers promise to approaches and processes were then developed that change the focus, but will they be life-cycle-cost driven included a focus on flight hardware maturity for relia- or profit driven, which may not be the same thing. bility, ground operations approaches, and business At present, access to space is very expensive, processes between industry and government. and will remain so until there is a breakthrough in the Achieving sustainable LCC will require a major way we do business. change in program cost control. That cost control must be used as a program metric in addition to the The Space Propulsion Synergy Team existing practice of controlling performance and Recognizing the gap in previous development efforts, weight. Without a firm requirement for cost control the Space Propulsion Synergy Team (SPST), char- and a methodically structured process to achieve it, it tered in 1991 by NASA, took on the task in 2004 of is unlikely that an affordable and sustainable LCC will analyzing and defining an LCC control approach to ever be realized. launch vehicle design, focused on affordablity and The basic approach was to adapt the manage- sustainablity. ment process for weight control that NASA used on The SPST is a national volunteer organization of the space shuttle program to control LCC. The government, industry, and university experts in space process would be used for technology development; propulsion and propulsion- and other system-related advanced development; system design, development, technologies. The members’ diverse expertise was test, and engineering (DDT&E); manufacture; opera- used to develop new engineering management deci- tion; and recycle/disposal. This requires a major cul-

40 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 Copyright© 2010 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. ROBSINSONrev1010.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 9/14/10 12:14 PM Page 3

life-cycle costs

tural adjustment in the way the government in general and NASA and the aerospace industry specifically do business. The approach is clearly feasible; commercial enterprises already use it. They are required to budget and control the LCC of their programs—otherwise they fail and go out of business. All requirements that address a program’s major objectives (performance, affordability, safety, and sus- tainability) must be in place from concept definition through flowdown to the unique element require- ments level. The recommended approach is the use of structured engineering management processes to budget and control those functions that are the pri- mary LCC drivers of the program.

Shuttle shortfall study and analysis The SPST conducted several analyses to uncover the areas that caused the significant cost shortfalls of the space shuttle program from 2000 to 2004. The shut- tle shortfall study first identified the major cost drivers that affected shuttle cost. The team found that design decisions that affected development and acquisition costs also drove the operations costs, which then dominated the LCC. The SPST proceeded to identify all the major operations cost drivers. The study reformatted the major lessons learned from previous programs as technical performance metrics (TPMs). To the degree that these can be im- plemented, both the design and the operations ele- mental cost will then cause a decrease in the LCC. Performance and weight can be adversely impacted by the pursuit of these TPMs in some missions and architectures. Consequently, a balance must be struck between these cost TPMs and the performance and weight TPMs in order to meet any LCC goal. The optimization process will form the frame- work of the architecture development. Of the 64 TPMs identified in the study, 18 were determined to be major cost drivers. The design and operations as- pects of LCC can then be decreased by establishing minimum values of the TPMs consistent with mission objectives and then flowing down the values of the by John W.Robinson TPMs as actual requirements. Chairman,SPST ROBSINSONrev1010.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 9/14/10 12:15 PM Page 4

After defining an architecture using these entire mission. This is a new approach that TPMs, structured engineering management will provide full accountability/traceability of and a disciplined program development pro- all functions required to perform a mission. It cess would be implemented throughout the serves as an integrated checklist so no func- design and development phases of a program. tions are omitted, especially in the early archi- tectural design phase. The approach allows Functional breakdown structures upfront visibility to achieve the desired TPMs Complete requirement definitions are a required to meet the objectives of affordability necessity at the onset of a program. The and sustainability. SPST developed a unique approach to for- One significant characteristic of an FBS is mulating requirements, one that provides full that missing or redundant elements of options accountability of all the functions needed to within architectures are identified. As a result, define an architecture’s capability to perform valid LCC comparisons can be made between missions. That approach is to develop a top- architectures. For instance, one architecture level functional breakdown structure (FBS) option might not need a particular function with modular subsets that can be used as the (for example, vertical launch with vertical land- basis for defining the functional requirements ing does not need the same controls a winged in any system. vehicle would need). Or one option may have The FBS is a structured, modular break- specific elements perform multiple functions down of every function that addresses the while another option uses one element to per- capability within an architecture to perform form the multiple functions. the mission’s transportation function. It is also Once the architecture is selected, the FBS usable for any subset of the mission. It is not will serve as a guide in development of the tied to any particular architectural implement- work breakdown structure, highlight those ation because it is a listing of the needed func- technologies that need further development, and help identify the discipline resources ithout a firm requirement for cost control and a methodically required to develop and operate that architec- Wstructured process for achieving it,it is unlikely that an ture. It also will allow the systems engineering affordable and sustainable LCC will ever be realized. activities to totally integrate each discipline to the maximum extent possible and optimize at the total system level rather than at the ele- tions (not elements of the architecture). The ment level (stovepiping). In addition, it fur- FBS offers a universal hierarchy of required nishes a framework that will help prevent functions, including ground and space opera- incorrect requirements or specifications tions and infrastructure. It provides total visi- because all functions are identified and all ele- bility of all the elements needed to perform an ments are aligned to functions. The FBS should be used to ensure that Steps to achieving low life-cycle cost the architecture options are compared fully •Establish cost credibility through the use of and validly. After the selection of an architec- extensive system-level and component-cost databases. ture that can meet the performance and LCC Develop anchor values and LCC models to assure the credibility of initial early estimates and explore the requirements, these requirements must be alternatives within the architecture. allocated and flowed down to all lower tiers. •Assess annual funding constraints while exploring All the requirements and elements of an archi- alternative system concepts. tecture must be identified at the beginning of a •Use a design-to-LCC management process that program if the LCC is to be controlled. is an integral part of a performance management system, thereby assuring an integrated cost manage- Designing to life-cycle cost ment system that is coupled with the technical per- formance measurement system to enhance the early Controlling life-cycle costs also requires the detection of unfavorable trends. use of a structured mechanism to implement •Use a design-to-LCC manager who reports a design-to-LCC process. This should be a directly to the program manager, thereby providing rigorous, disciplined process and must be a high-level single point of contact. implemented and demonstrated early in the •Trade cost reduction design solutions through definition of an architecture and the concept- system engineering control of the technical perform- ualization of its elements, including its ground ance and operations cost assessment. •Establish realistic but rigorous cost objectives infrastructure, and then refined continuously. early on and emplace highly visible management It is a process where tradeoffs among devel- processes that include the design-to-LCC approach opment, operation, performance, technical and follow a disciplined process to achieve them. risk, schedule, DDT&E cost, and life-cycle

42 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 ROBSINSONrev1010.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 9/14/10 12:15 PM Page 5

Recommendations The improved life-cycle-control processes developed by the SPST will provide the necessary cost controls when properly applied in the future advanced systems. The SPST recommendations are: •Make both nonrecurring and recurring costs a required metric, coequal with weight and performance, and flow it down to the individual element developments, with rewards and penalties, in the same way this is done for weight and performance control. Do not allow life-cycle cost to become a goal. •Fully and clearly define competing architectures and alternate implementations of architectural elements. Use an FBS to accomplish this full definition. •Fully and clearly define the requirements at the program’s beginning. Use an FBS to accomplish this full definition. •Define architectures using the TPMs and implement a structured engineering management process to budget and control the TPMs throughout the design and development phases of the program. •Develop and implement a very active process of reallocating requirements to lower levels to achieve overall system requirements throughout the DDT&E program. This should be done across multiple requirements. •Balance the safety, reliability, and maintainability requirements to provide controls on recurring maintenance burden to provide operational effectiveness and LCC control. •Develop a thorough understanding of the cost dependence on reliability and maintainability tradeoffs. •Develop a thorough appreciation of the coupling of maintainability and reliability. •Use a methodology or process for developing and balancing quantitative safety, reliability, and maintainability requirements. •Develop and use a structured mechanism for design-to-life-cycle cost.

costs must be addressed on an ongoing basis. As the design phase progresses, the LCC must be the primary TPM used to make emphasis should shift to producibility and decisions within these trade studies. An ability maintainability improvements that will benefit to control costs within stringent total program production and life-cycle costs. An operations and fiscal constraints must be demonstrated cost model should be used during the design early in the design development phase and process to provide operations cost impact carried throughout the last day of operation of data for design option selections. Operational the vehicles. life-cycle costs must be continuously and rig- The design-to-LCC management process orously evaluated as an integral component of should allow definition and implementation of overall system design. cost-effective design improvements early in the design phase. Implementation early on assures Outlook visibility into production and life-cycle cost Based on study and analysis of several pro- trends. It also facilitates credible cost, schedule, grams, including the space shuttle, it is clear and technical performance feedback. More- that past and current efforts to control LCC over, coordination with responsible design have been inadequate and ineffective. engineers and functional managers gives them The “lesson learned” from these studies is the capability to provide effective and timely that vastly improved, innovative processes cost-reduction decisions when they have the must be developed and rigorously applied to most impact on LCC. adequately control life-cycle costs. These pro- The system engineering discipline would cesses must be enforced by program man- employ the design-to-LCC management pro- agers throughout the design, development, cess as a guide to allocating re- sources and performance require- ments, identifying high-risk or n ability to control costs within stringent total program and fiscal high-cost components that are ma- Aconstraints must be demonstrated early in the design development jor LCC drivers, managing system- phase and carried throughout the last day of operation of the vehicles. level cost/capability/risk tradeoffs, analyzing technology selection im- pacts on program costs, and monitoring de- production, and operation of a system. The sign engineering technical performance objective is to establish LCC as a true require- against identified system goals. There should ment that is flowed down to all tiers. Require- be a focus on both development and opera- ments not flowed down become “goals,” and tional cost containment. If system LCC pro- are rarely met. jections exceed target values, design trades Proper application of these processes can should be initiated to redefine system design provide the necessary cost controls, resulting characteristics to meet the LCC TPM and still in sustainable low life-cycle cost space trans- meet the minimum requirements. portation systems.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 43 OOPlayout1010FINAL.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:03 PM Page 2

25 years Ago, October 1985 Oct. 3 The space shuttle Atlantis blasts off from Kennedy Space Center on its first voyage. STS 51-J carries a military payload for the DOD and makes Atlantis the fourth shuttle to go into orbit. Ten years later, Atlantis becomes the first shuttle to dock with Russia's Mir space station on STS 71. Astronautics and Aeronautics 1985, new supersonic wind tunnels at pp. 278-279, 309. English Electric’s aviation facility at Warton, England. Thorneycroft arrives 50 Years Ago, October 1960 in a Vickers-Armstrong Vanguard, the Oct. 1 The first Ballistic Missile Early Warning Sys- first passenger flight of this aircraft in tem (BMEWS) station, at Thule, Greenland, be- the U.K. The Aeroplane, Oct. 28, comes operational. BMEWS can alert the U.S. and 1960, p. 594. Canada to any large-scale Soviet ICBM attacks over the North Polar regions and gives both coun- Oct. 21 Britain’s Hawker P.1127 tries a 15-min warning. The BMEWS radar equip- VTOL fighter, powered by a ment has a 3,000-mi. range. The Aeroplane, Oct. 21, 1960, pp. 560-561. Bristol Siddeley BS.53 tur- bojet, starts its initial tri- Oct. 4 A Thor Able Star vehicle launches the 500-lb Courier I-B commu- als. The Aeroplane, Nov. nications satellite into orbit from Cape Canaveral, Fla. After completing 25, 1960, p. 702. one orbit, the satellite receives and records a transcribed message to the U.N. sent from President Eisenhower at Ft. Monmouth, N.J., then transmits it to an Earth station in Puerto Rico. This launch is the 100th for the Thor, which has now lofted a record 60% of all U.S. satellites into orbit. E. Emme, ed., Aero- nautics and Astronautics 1915-60, p. 129.

Oct. 11 A prototype of the Air Force’s SAMOS 1 (Satellite and Missile Observation Oct. 21 Grumman’s W2F-1 Hawkeye, System 1) reconnaissance satellite is launched from the new Pacific Missile Range powered by two Allison T56-A8 site at Point Arguello, Calif. The spacecraft fails to orbit, however, because the turboprop engines, has its first flight. second stage of its Atlas-Agena launch vehicle falls short of orbital velocity. It is to replace the Navy’s Grumman The Aeroplane, Oct. 21, 1960, p. 563. WF-2s for airborne early warning service. The Hawkeye can fly higher, Oct. 11 SAS initiates jet polar service between faster, and for a longer duration than Europe and the Far East using DC-8s, cutting its predecessor and other carrier-based the flying time to less than 16 hr. On this early warning aircraft. The Aeroplane, Copenhagen-to-Tokyo route the airline flies the Nov. 18, 1960, p. 684. DC-8 Rurik Viking, which earlier inaugurated a new 10,000-ft runway at Bodø in northern Norway. The Aeroplane, Oct. 28, Oct. 24 The Boeing Ver- 1960, p. 579, and Oct. 21, 1960, p. 553. tol 107 twin-turbine helicopter achieves Oct. 13 The first color photos of Earth from space are taken by a its first successful camera in the nose of an Atlas ICBM at an altitude of 600 mi. The flight. The 1961 camera also takes pictures of star formations from a 700-mi. alti- Aerospace Year tude. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics 1915-60, p. 129. Book, p. 445.

Oct. 15-18 Four operational-type Polaris solid-fuel ballistic missiles are Oct. 25 Harry Ferguson test fired successfully from the submerged submarine Patrick Henry dies at age 75. He is well known for off the Florida coast. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics the tractors he manufactured and 1915-60, p. 129. also for designing and building the Polaris-A3 first heavier-than-air machines flown Oct. 19 Peter Thorneycroft, Britain’s minister of aviation, opens the in Ireland, where he first piloted his

44 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 OOPlayout1010FINAL.qxd:AA Template 9/14/10 12:04 PM Page 3

An Aerospace Chronology by Frank H.Winter, Ret. and Robert van der Linden

small monoplane H.C. Constant lends his private machine for a public demonstration at London’s on Dec. 31, 1909, Croydon Airport. The new model has a Smith controllable-pitch air-screw. The with the late light, high-wing cabin aircraft has a 225-hp Lycoming radial engine and a range C.G. Gray. The of 700 mi. The Aeroplane, Oct. 9, 1935, p. 446. Aeroplane, Nov. 18, 1960, p. 677. Oct. 9 Pan American Airways receives its first Martin M-130 flying Oct. 25 Three U-2 very high altitude boat during a ceremony attended by reconnaissance aircraft fly nonstop Col. Charles A. Lindbergh at Martin’s from Fiji to East Sale, Victoria, Australia. Baltimore plant. Pan Am is shortly to use this and two other M-130s for its From there they make high-altitude transpacific passenger service, which experimentally now uses the Sikorsky S-42. flights over the ocean to the south, Capt. Edwin Musick, who is to inaugurate the transpacific service, flies the first conducting research on radiation and M-130 from Baltimore to Washington, D.C., with 38 passengers and a crew of fallout. The Aeroplane, Nov. 4, 1960, five. The Aeroplane, Oct. 16, 1935, p. 481. p. 606. Oct. 11 Aircraft play an important role in Italy’s invasion of Ethiopia, begun this Oct. 27 The Institute of the month. On this day, Italian planes bomb the fort of Daguerre on the left bank of Aeronautical Sciences changes its the Webbe Shibeli. The son-in-law of Emperor Haile Selassie of Ethiopia surrenders name to Institute of the Aerospace to the Italians on October 12 with a large number of followers. Italy issues orders Sciences. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics not to bomb Addis Ababa unless it becomes a military base. The Aeroplane, and Astronautics 1915-60, p. 129. Oct. 23, 1935, p. 494.

75 Years Ago, October 1935 Oct. 12 A report from Baghdad says that the Iraqi air force recently completed successful operations against rebels in the Jebel Sinjar region, 80 mi. west of Mosul. Oct. 1 Sylvanus The Aeroplane, Oct. 30, 1935, p. 520. Reed, inventor of the Reed metal 100 Years Ago, October 1910 airscrew, dies at 81. A secretary Oct. 15-Nov. 2 The Second International Exposition of Aer- to the head of ial Locomotion is held in Paris. Undoubtedly the most un- the American usual aircraft displayed is Henri Coanda’s Turbopropulseur, Section of the which some later claim is the world’s first jet. Moreover, Paris Exposition Coanda is alleged to have made the first and only flight in of 1878, he later this aircraft after the exhibition, on December 10, 1910. became a mining However, exhaustive examinations of all the aviation jour- engineer. In 1915 Reed began experi- nals and newspapers of the time, as well as later accounts, menting with metal airscrews, or pro- fail to reveal any actual flight or attempts. Rather, these pellers, as they were later called. The sources and Coanda patents strongly indicate the prop, which was successfully demon- Propulseur is no more than a sesquiplane fitted with an in- strated at Curtiss Field on Aug. 30, ternal 50-hp Clerget engine. The engine drives a large 1921, was sold to Curtiss; large-scale ducted fan in front of it to suck in air, which then mixes production followed. In 1925 Reed with the exhaust of the Clerget and is expelled out of the received the Collier Trophy. The Aero- rear. There is no evidence at all that fuel is injected to pro- plane, Oct. 16, 1925, pp. 461-462. vide combustion for expulsion of these gases, as in a real jet. C. Gibbs-Smith, Aviation, p. 156; Aeronautical Journal of the Royal Aeronautical Oct. 3 The successful and popular Society, December 1980, pp. 408-416. Stinson Reliant model SR6-A makes its first And During October 1910 British —Russian aviator Alexandre Kouzminski is the first to fly an aircraft in China, flight piloting a French Bleriot XI air-cooled monoplane over Peking. M. Rosholt, Flight when in the China Air Space 1910-1950, pp. 7-9.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 45 AA_OCT2010_COPP.qxd:Layout 1 9/15/10 2:54 PM Page 2

46 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 AA_OCT2010_COPP.qxd:Layout 1 9/15/10 3:03 PM Page 3

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2010 47 New and Forthcoming Titles from the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

Fundamentals of Boundary Layer The Engines Aircraft and Airship Analysis, Revised of Pratt & Whitney: Design, Volume I: A Technical History Aircraft Design Joseph A. Schetz 2010, 580 pp, Hardback Jack Connors Leland Nicolai and ISBN: 978-1-60086-771-2 2010, 548 pp, Hardback Grant Carichner List Price: $114.95 ISBN: 978-1-60086-711-8 2010, 960 pp, Hardback AIAA Members: $84.95 List Price: $49.95 ISBN: 978-1-60086-751-4 AIAA Members: $39.95 List Price: $119.95 AIAA Members: $89.95 Test and Evaluation of Aircraft Avionics Advances in and Weapon Collaborative Unmanned Systems Civil Aeronautical Aircraft Systems: Multidisciplinary UAVS Design, Robert E. McShea Design Optimization Development 2010, 800 pp, Hardback and Deployment ISBN: 978-1-60086-760-6 Ernst Kesseler and Marin D. Guenov List Price: $149.95 Reg Austin 2010, 456 pp, Hardback, ISBN: 978-1-60086-725-5 AIAA Members: $114.95 2010, 384 pp, Hardback List Price: $109.95 ISBN: 978-1-60086-759-0 AIAA Members: $79.95 List Price: $124.95 Optimal Control AIAA Members: $94.95 Theory with Aerospace SKYCRANE: Applications Igor Sikorsky’s Last Principles Vision of Flight Joseph Z. Ben-Asher, Simulation Technion – Israel Institute John A. McKenna of Technology 2010, 128 pp, Paperback, David Allerton 2010, 256 pp, Hardback ISBN: 978-1-60086-756-9 ISBN: 978-1-60086-732-3 2010, 471 pp, Hardback List Price: $39.95 ISBN: 978-1-60086-703-3 List Price: $89.95 AIAA Members: $29.95 List Price: $94.95 AIAA Members: $69.95 AIAA Members: $74.95 Emergence of Pico- and Multiple Scales Theory and Nanosatellites for Atmospheric German Aerospace Applications Research and Testing Development of Rudrapatna V. Ramnath the Swept Wing, Purvesh Thakker and Wayne Shiroma 1935–1945 2010, 640 pp, Hardback, ISBN: 978-1-60086-762-0 2010, 384 pp, Hardback, ISBN: 978-1-60086-768-2 List Price: $99.95 List Price: $99.95 Hans-Ulrich Meier, Editor AIAA Members: $74.95 AIAA Members: $74.95 2010, 580 pp, Hardback ISBN: 978-1-60086-714-9 List Price: $89.95 AIAA Members: $69.95 Order 24 hours a day at aiaa.org/books 10-0401 STRATEGY for SUCCESS

In today’s dynamic business environment, effective outreach and customer interface are vital to successfully capturing new partnership opportunities.

If your company is looking for a mechanism to heighten visibility, expand networking capabilities among industry leaders, and demonstrate your unique value to thousands of aerospace professionals, AIAA can help to achieve your objectives.

With over 75 years’ experience, and a distinguished roster of legendary aerospace policymakers and pioneers, AIAA’s Sponsorship Program can provide access to key industry, government, and academia contacts all in one location.

Whether you are looking to build new relationships within the aerospace community, or strengthen your brand image as a major industry contender, an AIAA sponsorship will provide global marketing to the individuals and companies that matter most to your organization.

For more information on sponsorship opportunities with AIAA, contact Cecilia Capece, AIAA Sponsorship Program Manager, at 703.264.7570 or [email protected].

10-0469ad.indd 1 8/10/10 2:05 PM Inspire | Challenge | Enable

Th e AIAA Foundation is a nonprofi t, and classroom grants, we seek to inspire the tax-exempt educational organization next generation with a passion for science founded in 1996. Th rough scholarships, and engineering. Aided by donations large student conferences, design competitions, and small, we invest in the future.

For more information or to make a tax-deductable donation visit www.aiaafoundation.org