Somalia: Current Conditions and Prospects for a Lasting Peace Ted Dagne Specialist in African Affairs February 4, 2010 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL33911 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Somalia: Current Conditions and Prospects for a Lasting Peace Summary In October 2002, the Inter-Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD) launched a peace process designed to end factional fighting in Somalia, led by the government of Kenya. In September 2003, the parties agreed on a Transitional National Charter (TNC). In August 2004, a 275-member Transitional Parliament was inaugurated in Kenya. In October 2004, parliament elected Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed as the new president of Somalia. In June 2006, the forces of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) took control of the capital, Mogadishu. During the six-month rule by the ICU, Mogadishu became relatively peaceful, but efforts to bring peace did not lead to a major breakthrough. On December 28, 2006, Ethiopian troops captured Mogadishu with little resistance from the ICU. The Ethiopian intervention led to more chaos and instability in Somalia over the past two years. Humanitarian, political, and security conditions continue to deteriorate across south-central Somalia. In the past two years, more than 22,000 civilians have been killed, an estimated 1.1 million people displaced, and 476,000 Somalis have fled to neighboring countries. In 2008, fighting between insurgent groups and Ethiopian-TFG forces intensified, and by late 2008, the TFG had lost control of most of south-central Somalia to insurgent groups. In January 2009, Ethiopian forces completed their withdrawal from Somalia. In late December 2008, President Yusuf resigned from office and left for Yemen. In June 2008, the TFG and the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS), a group dominated by members of the ICU, signed an agreement in Djibouti mediated by United Nations Special Envoy Ahmedou Ould-Abdullah. The parties agreed to a cease-fire, the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces, and the deployment of a United Nations peacekeeping force. Several towns are now administered by the ARS, including Jowhar and Beledweyne. A number of other towns, including the third-largest town, Kismaayo, are now under the control of the Al-Shabaab, a group opposed to the TFG and the ARS-Djibouti faction. The next phase of the Somali conflict is likely to occur between the ARS and the Al-Shabaab. In February 2008, then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice designated Al-Shabaab as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. In January 2009, the Somali Parliament elected the leader of the ARS, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmad, as president. In February 2009, President Ahmad appointed Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke as prime minister. Meanwhile, Somali pirates have intensified their attacks in the Gulf of Aden, carrying out attacks on over 111 commercial ships, and successfully hijacking over 35 ships in 2008. In 2009, there were 217 incidents, with 47 vessels hijacked. In February 2010, Somali pirates hijacked a Libyan-owned cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden. In 2009, Somali pirates released the Ukrainian- owned ship, MV Faina, with 33 T-72 tanks and other weapons. The pirates have earned more than $120 million in ransom payments, and have released a number of the ships and crew members. The United States, Russia, India, and several other countries have deployed warships to tackle piracy in the Horn of Africa region. Some insurgent leaders have warned the pirates to end their illegal activities and to release crew members and ships that they currently control. Congressional Research Service Somalia: Current Conditions and Prospects for a Lasting Peace Contents Recent Developments..................................................................................................................1 The Leadership of Al-Shabaab and other Factions .................................................................3 Sheik Sharif Hassan Aweys .............................................................................................4 Political Developments: Background...............................................................................4 Security Conditions: Background..........................................................................................6 Human Rights and Humanitarian Conditions.........................................................................7 Somali Piracy in the Horn of Africa.......................................................................................8 Overview ........................................................................................................................8 Who Are the Pirates?.......................................................................................................8 The Views from Somalia.................................................................................................9 Policy Options in Dealing with Piracy.............................................................................9 Policy Options in Dealing with Political and Security Problems ..........................................10 The Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia...............................................................10 Background: 2006-2008............................................................................................................12 Peacekeeping Mission: Background ..........................................................................................14 The Islamic Courts Union: Background.....................................................................................15 The Leadership of the Somali Council of the Islamic Courts: Background................................18 The Top Leaders of the Courts: Background..............................................................................18 The Executive Council (Before the Split) ............................................................................18 The Legislative Council or Shura (Before the Split).............................................................19 Ethiopia-Somalia Relations .......................................................................................................19 Somalia: Background (1991-2006)............................................................................................21 Peace Processes ..................................................................................................................21 National Reconciliation Conference ..............................................................................22 Somalia: Safe Haven for Terrorist Groups?................................................................................22 Al-Ittihad............................................................................................................................23 Figures Figure 1. Major Somali Clans and Subclans ..............................................................................25 Figure 2. Map of Somalia..........................................................................................................26 Tables Table 1. U.S. Assistance to Somalia.............................................................................................7 Table 2. The Leadership of the Executive Council of the ARS Before the Split .......................... 11 Contacts Author Contact Information ......................................................................................................27 Congressional Research Service Somalia: Current Conditions and Prospects for a Lasting Peace Recent Developments On February 1, 2010, Al Shabaab and the Ras Kamboni group, led by Hassan Al Turki, reportedly agreed to merge under one name: Al Shabaab Mujahidin Movement. Both Al Shabaab and the Ras Kamboni group have been coordinating their attacks against the TFG and working closely with foreign fighters over the past two years. Senior TFG officials consider the merger a reaffirmation of a pre-existing informal alliance between the two groups.1 The merger is also triggered in part due to defections and the reported illness of Hassan Al-Turki, the leader of Ras Kamboni. Al Turki, an Ethiopian from the Ogaden clan, was designated as a terrorist by the United States in 2004. Another possible reason for the merger is due to the expected major military offensive by TFG forces against Al Shabaab and its allies. Internal divisions and defections are weakening Al Shabaab. Two senior Al Shabaab leaders, Mohamed Faruq and Ali Hassan Gheddi, defected with an estimated 550 fighters and joined the TFG. Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamaa, a militia group that was against the TFG, has been working closely with the TFG against Al Shabaab and other anti-government militia groups. The TFG, however, faces serious problems in its efforts to keep those defecting and consolidate its forces. In November 2009, donor governments pledged $58 million to Somalia. As of late 2009, the TFG received $5.6 million. On December 3, 2009, a terrorist attack during a graduation ceremony for medical students at a hotel in Mogadishu reportedly killed 23 people, including three TFG ministers. The suicide bombing was carried out by a Denmark citizen of Somali descent. Among the dead and wounded were students, family members, journalists, members of parliament, and faculty members. One of the ministers killed, Ibrahim Addou, was an American citizen and a former faculty member at American University in Washington, DC. In September 2007, in a letter to the African