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Going Global: Islamist Competition in Contemporary Civil Wars
Security Studies,25:353–384,2016 Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: 0963-6412 print / 1556-1852 online DOI: 10.1080/09636412.2016.1171971 Going Global: Islamist Competition in Contemporary Civil Wars AISHA AHMAD The global landscape of modern jihad is highly diverse and wrought with conflict between rival Islamist factions. Within this inter- Islamist competition, some factions prove to be more robust and durable than others. This research proposes that the adoption of a global identity allows an Islamist group to better recruit and expand their domestic political power across ethnic and tribal divisions without being constrained by local politics. Islamists that rely on an ethnic or tribal identity are more prone to group fragmentation, whereas global Islamists are better able to retain group cohesion by purging their ranks of dissenters. To examine these two processes, I present original field research and primary source analysis to ex- amine Islamist in-fighting in Somalia from 2006–2014 and then expand my analysis to Iraq and Syria, Pakistan, and Mali. GOING GLOBAL: ISLAMIST COMPETITION IN CONTEMPORARY CIVIL WARS The global landscape of modern jihad is highly diverse and wrought with internal competition.1 In Pakistan, factions within the Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP) movement have repeatedly clashed over the past decade, splintering into Downloaded by [University of Toronto Libraries] at 07:31 05 July 2016 multiple powerful jihadist groups. In northern Mali, the ethnic Tuareg re- bellion has also fractured, leading some Islamist factions to build strong ties to al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).2 More recently, the Aisha Ahmad is an Assistant Professor at the University of Toronto. -
WRAP-Understanding-Al-Shabaab
Manuscript version: Author’s Accepted Manuscript The version presented in WRAP is the author’s accepted manuscript and may differ from the published version or Version of Record. Persistent WRAP URL: http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/132279 How to cite: Please refer to published version for the most recent bibliographic citation information. If a published version is known of, the repository item page linked to above, will contain details on accessing it. Copyright and reuse: The Warwick Research Archive Portal (WRAP) makes this work by researchers of the University of Warwick available open access under the following conditions. Copyright © and all moral rights to the version of the paper presented here belong to the individual author(s) and/or other copyright owners. To the extent reasonable and practicable the material made available in WRAP has been checked for eligibility before being made available. Copies of full items can be used for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge. Provided that the authors, title and full bibliographic details are credited, a hyperlink and/or URL is given for the original metadata page and the content is not changed in any way. Publisher’s statement: Please refer to the repository item page, publisher’s statement section, for further information. For more information, please contact the WRAP Team at: [email protected]. warwick.ac.uk/lib-publications Journal of Eastern African Studies peer review 5 December 2014, Special Issue ‘Pirates & Preachers’ UNDERSTANDING AL-SHABAAB: CLANS, ISLAM, AND INSURGENCY IN KENYA David M. Anderson* & Jacob McKnight** * Professor in African History, History Department, Humanities Building, University Way, University of Warwick, Coventry CV2 7AL. -
Somalia: Al-Shabaab – It Will Be a Long War
Policy Briefing Africa Briefing N°99 Nairobi/Brussels, 26 June 2014 Somalia: Al-Shabaab – It Will Be a Long War I. Overview Despite the recent military surge against Somalia’s armed Islamist extremist and self- declared al-Qaeda affiliate, Al-Shabaab, its conclusive “defeat” remains elusive. The most likely scenario – already in evidence – is that its armed units will retreat to small- er, remote and rural enclaves, exploiting entrenched and ever-changing clan-based competition; at the same time, other groups of radicalised and well-trained individ- uals will continue to carry out assassinations and terrorist attacks in urban areas, in- cluding increasingly in neighbouring countries, especially Kenya. The long connec- tion between Al-Shabaab’s current leadership and al-Qaeda is likely to strengthen. A critical breakthrough in the fight against the group cannot, therefore, be achieved by force of arms, even less so when it is foreign militaries, not the Somali National Army (SNA), that are in the lead. A more politically-focused approach is required. Even as its territory is squeezed in the medium term, Al-Shabaab will continue to control both money and minds. It has the advantage of at least three decades of Salafi-Wahhabi proselytisation (daawa) in Somalia; social conservatism is already strongly entrenched – including in Somaliland and among Somali minorities in neigh- bouring states – giving it deep reservoirs of fiscal and ideological support, even with- out the intimidation it routinely employs. An additional factor is the group’s proven ability to adapt, militarily and politically – flexibility that is assisted by its leadership’s freedom from direct accountability to any single constituency. -
Somalia Terror Threat
THECHRISTOPHER TERROR February 12, THREAT FROM THE TERROR THREAT FROM SOMALIA THE INTERNATIONALIZATION OF AL SHABAAB CHRISTOPHER HARNISCH APPENDICES AND MAPS BY KATHERINE ZIMMERMAN FEBRUARY 12, 2010 A REPORT BY THE CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT OF THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE THE TERROR THREAT FROM SOMALIA CHRISTOPHER HARNISCH February 12, 2010 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 IMPORTANT GROUPS AND ORGANIZATIONS IN SOMALIA 3 NOTABLE INDIVIDUALS 4 INTRODUCTION 8 ORIGINS OF AL SHABAAB 10 GAINING CONTROL, GOVERNING, AND MAINTAINING CONTROL 14 AL SHABAAB’S RELATIONSHIP WITH AL QAEDA, THE GLOBAL JIHAD MOVEMENT, AND ITS GLOBAL IDEOLOGY 19 INTERNATIONAL RECRUITING AND ITS IMPACT 29 AL SHABAAB’S INTERNATIONAL THREATS 33 THREAT ASSESSMENT AND CONCLUSION 35 APPENDIX A: TIMELINE OF MAJOR SECURITY EVENTS IN SOMALIA 37 APPENDIX B: MAJOR SUICIDE ATTACKS AND ASSASSINATIONS CLAIMED BY OR ATTRIBUTED TO AL SHABAAB 47 NOTES 51 Maps MAP OF THE HORN OF AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST 5 POLITICAL MAP OF SOMALIA 6 MAP OF ISLAMIST-CONTROLLED AND INFLUENCED AREAS IN SOMALIA 7 www.criticalthreats.org THE TERROR THREAT FROM SOMALIA CHRISTOPHER HARNISCH February 12, 2010 Executive Summary hree hundred people nearly died in the skies of and assassinations. Al Shabaab’s primary objectives at TMichigan on Christmas Day, 2009 when a Niger- the time of the Ethiopian invasion appeared to be ian terrorist attempted to blow up a plane destined geographically limited to Somalia, and perhaps the for Detroit. The terrorist was an operative of an al Horn of Africa. The group’s rhetoric and behavior, Qaeda franchise based in Yemen called al Qaeda in however, have shifted over the past two years reflect- the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). -
Somalia Country Report BTI 2012
BTI 2012 | Somalia Country Report Status Index 1-10 1.22 # 128 of 128 Political Transformation 1-10 1.27 # 128 of 128 Economic Transformation 1-10 1.18 # 128 of 128 Management Index 1-10 1.51 # 127 of 128 scale: 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest) score rank trend This report is part of the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index (BTI) 2012. The BTI is a global assessment of transition processes in which the state of democracy and market economy as well as the quality of political management in 128 transformation and developing countries are evaluated. More on the BTI at http://www.bti-project.org Please cite as follows: Bertelsmann Stiftung, BTI 2012 — Somalia Country Report. Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2012. © 2012 Bertelsmann Stiftung, Gütersloh BTI 2012 | Somalia 2 Key Indicators Population mn. 9.3 HDI - GDP p.c. $ - Pop. growth1 % p.a. 2.3 HDI rank of 187 - Gini Index - Life expectancy years 51 UN Education Index - Poverty3 % - Urban population % 37.4 Gender inequality2 - Aid per capita $ 72.4 Sources: The World Bank, World Development Indicators 2011 | UNDP, Human Development Report 2011. Footnotes: (1) Average annual growth rate. (2) Gender Inequality Index (GII). (3) Percentage of population living on less than $2 a day. Executive Summary Over the last two years, Somalia experienced ongoing violence and a continuous reconfiguration of political and military forces. During a United Nations brokered peace process in Djibouti, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) reconciled with one of its opponents, the moderate Djibouti wing of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS-D). -
Somalia: Understanding Al-Shabaab
Institute for Security Studies Situation Report Date issued: 3 June 2009 Author: Paula Cristina Roque1 Distribution: General Contact: [email protected] Somalia: Understanding Al-Shabaab On 8 May 2009, Al-Shabaab reinforced by a faction of Hizbul Islam and former Summary Islamic Courts Union’s (ICU) leader Sheikh Aweys began what they claimed was a final assault on the capital Mogadishu in an attempt to destroy President Sheikh Sharif’s fragile National Unity Government. A wave of targeted assassinations of ICU officials and Al-Shabaab commanders in mid-April onwards,2 the reshuffling of military and political alliances among Islamist factions and inflammatory rhetoric that has led to a polarization of political positions has all but eliminated prospects for reconciliation between the government and the opposition. At the time of writing the government is managing to keep hold of southern Mogadishu. Nevertheless Al-Shabaab continues to gain ground in central Somalia and is positioning itself for what it hopes will be a decisive military victory. This report briefly examines the nature of Al-Shabaab’s ideological stance, their political ambitions and why this movement constitutes the gravest threat to the survival of Sheikh Sharif’s government and the Djibouti peace process that gave it birth. Introduction Al-Shabaab Al-Mujahidin (The Youth) is today the strongest, best organised, financed and armed military group and controls the largest stretch of territory in southern Somalia. Ahmed Abdi Godane (aka Sheikh Abu Zubeyr)3 leads the movement, deemed the Emir of the jihadist organisation, and is assisted by a ten-member council (Shura). -
B COUNCIL DECISION 2010/231/CFSP of 26 April 2010 Concerning Restrictive Measures Against Somalia and Repealing Common Position 2009/138/CFSP (OJ L 105, 27.4.2010, P
2010D0231 — EN — 16.10.2012 — 003.001 — 1 This document is meant purely as a documentation tool and the institutions do not assume any liability for its contents ►B COUNCIL DECISION 2010/231/CFSP of 26 April 2010 concerning restrictive measures against Somalia and repealing Common Position 2009/138/CFSP (OJ L 105, 27.4.2010, p. 17) Amended by: Official Journal No page date ►M1 Council Decision 2011/635/CFSP of 26 September 2011 L 249 12 27.9.2011 ►M2 Council Decision 2012/388/CFSP of 16 July 2012 L 187 38 17.7.2012 ►M3 Council Decision 2012/633/CFSP of 15 October 2012 L 282 47 16.10.2012 2010D0231 — EN — 16.10.2012 — 003.001 — 2 ▼B COUNCIL DECISION 2010/231/CFSP of 26 April 2010 concerning restrictive measures against Somalia and repealing Common Position 2009/138/CFSP THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, Having regard to the Treaty on European Union, and in particular Article 29 thereof, Whereas: (1) On 10 December 2002, the Council adopted Common Position 2002/960/CFSP concerning restrictive measures against Soma lia (1 ) following United Nations Security Council Resolutions (UNSCR) 733 (1992), 1356 (2001) and 1425 (2002) relating to an arms embargo against Somalia. (2) On 16 February 2009, the Council adopted Common Position 2009/138/CFSP concerning restrictive measures against Somalia and repealing Common Position 2002/960/CFSP (2 ), imple menting UNSCR 1844 (2008) which introduced restrictive measures against those who seek to prevent or block a peaceful political process, or those who threaten the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs) of Somalia or the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) by force, or take action that undermines stability in Somalia or in the region. -
“Like Fish in Poisonous Waters” Attacks on Media Freedom in Somalia WATCH
HUMAN RIGHTS “Like Fish in Poisonous Waters” Attacks on Media Freedom in Somalia WATCH “Like Fish in Poisonous Waters” Attacks on Media Freedom in Somalia Copyright © YEAR Human Rights Watch All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 978-1-6231-33474 Cover design by Rafael Jimenez Human Rights Watch defends the rights of people worldwide. We scrupulously investigate abuses, expose the facts widely, and pressure those with power to respect rights and secure justice. Human Rights Watch is an independent, international organization that works as part of a vibrant movement to uphold human dignity and advance the cause of human rights for all. Human Rights Watch is an international organization with staff in more than 40 countries, and offices in Amsterdam, Beirut, Berlin, Brussels, Chicago, Geneva, Goma, Johannesburg, London, Los Angeles, Moscow, Nairobi, New York, Paris, San Francisco, Sydney, Tokyo, Toronto, Tunis, Washington DC, and Zurich. For more information, please visit our website: http://www.hrw.org MAY 2016 ISBN: 978-1-6231-33474 “Like Fish in Poisonous Waters” Attacks on Media Freedom in Somalia Map .......................................................................................................... I Glossary ................................................................................................... II Summary ................................................................................................. 1 Recommendations ................................................................................... -
Situation Report
Institute for Security Studies Situation Report Date issued: 3 June 2009 Author: Paula Cristina Roque1 Distribution: General Contact: [email protected] Somalia: Understanding Al-Shabaab On 8 May 2009, Al-Shabaab reinforced by a faction of Hizbul Islam and former Summary Islamic Courts Union’s (ICU) leader Sheikh Aweys began what they claimed was a final assault on the capital Mogadishu in an attempt to destroy President Sheikh Sharif’s fragile National Unity Government. A wave of targeted assassinations of ICU officials and Al-Shabaab commanders in mid-April onwards,2 the reshuffling of military and political alliances among Islamist factions and inflammatory rhetoric that has led to a polarization of political positions has all but eliminated prospects for reconciliation between the government and the opposition. At the time of writing the government is managing to keep hold of southern Mogadishu. Nevertheless Al-Shabaab continues to gain ground in central Somalia and is positioning itself for what it hopes will be a decisive military victory. This report briefly examines the nature of Al-Shabaab’s ideological stance, their political ambitions and why this movement constitutes the gravest threat to the survival of Sheikh Sharif’s government and the Djibouti peace process that gave it birth. Introduction Al-Shabaab Al-Mujahidin (The Youth) is today the strongest, best organised, financed and armed military group and controls the largest stretch of territory in southern Somalia. Ahmed Abdi Godane (aka Sheikh Abu Zubeyr)3 leads the movement, deemed the Emir of the jihadist organisation, and is assisted by a ten-member council (Shura). -
Harsh War, Harsh Peace RIGHTS Abuses by Al-Shabaab, the Transitional Federal Government, and AMISOM in Somalia WATCH
Somalia HUMAN Harsh War, Harsh Peace RIGHTS Abuses by al-Shabaab, the Transitional Federal Government, and AMISOM in Somalia WATCH Harsh War, Harsh Peace Abuses by al-Shabaab, the Transitional Federal Government, and AMISOM in Somalia Copyright © 2010 Human Rights Watch All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 1-56432-621-7 Cover design by Rafael Jimenez Human Rights Watch 350 Fifth Avenue, 34th floor New York, NY 10118-3299 USA Tel: +1 212 290 4700, Fax: +1 212 736 1300 [email protected] Poststraße 4-5 10178 Berlin, Germany Tel: +49 30 2593 06-10, Fax: +49 30 2593 0629 [email protected] Avenue des Gaulois, 7 1040 Brussels, Belgium Tel: + 32 (2) 732 2009, Fax: + 32 (2) 732 0471 [email protected] 64-66 Rue de Lausanne 1202 Geneva, Switzerland Tel: +41 22 738 0481, Fax: +41 22 738 1791 [email protected] 2-12 Pentonville Road, 2nd Floor London N1 9HF, UK Tel: +44 20 7713 1995, Fax: +44 20 7713 1800 [email protected] 27 Rue de Lisbonne 75008 Paris, France Tel: +33 (1)43 59 55 35, Fax: +33 (1) 43 59 55 22 [email protected] 1630 Connecticut Avenue, N.W., Suite 500 Washington, DC 20009 USA Tel: +1 202 612 4321, Fax: +1 202 612 4333 [email protected] Web Site Address: http://www.hrw.org April 2010 1-56432-621-7 Harsh War, Harsh Peace Abuses by al-Shabaab, the Transitional Federal Government, and AMISOM in Somalia Map of Somalia .................................................................................................................. 1 Summary ........................................................................................................................... 2 Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 6 Recommendations .............................................................................................................. 7 To the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia (TFG) ................................................ -
Somalia and Eritrea Addressed to the President of the Security Council
United Nations S/2013/413 Security Council Distr.: General 12 July 2013 Original: English Letter dated 12 July 2013 from the Chair of the Security Council Committee pursuant to resolutions 751 (1992) and 1907 (2009) concerning Somalia and Eritrea addressed to the President of the Security Council On behalf of the Security Council Committee pursuant to resolutions 751 (1992) and 1907 (2009) concerning Somalia and Eritrea, and in accordance with paragraph 13 (m) of Security Council resolution 2060 (2012), I have the honour to transmit herewith the report on Somalia of the Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea. In this connection, the Committee would appreciate it if the present letter, together with its enclosure, were brought to the attention of the members of the Security Council and issued as a document of the Council. (Signed) Kim Sook Chairman Security Council Committee pursuant to resolutions 751 (1992) and 1907 (2009) concerning Somalia and Eritrea 13-36185 (E) 150713 *1336185* S/2013/413 Letter dated 19 June 2013 from the members of the Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea addressed to the Chair of the Security Council Committee pursuant to resolutions 751 (1992) and 1907 (2009) concerning Somalia and Eritrea We have the honour to transmit herewith the report on Somalia of the Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea, in accordance with paragraph 13 (m) of Security Council resolution 2060 (2012). (Signed) Jarat Chopra Coordinator Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea (Signed) Jeanine Lee Brudenell Finance Expert (Signed) Emmanuel Deisser Arms Expert (Signed) Aurélien Llorca Transport Expert (Signed) Dinesh Mahtani Finance Expert (Signed) Jörg Roofthooft Maritime Expert (Signed) Babatunde Taiwo Armed Groups Expert (Signed) Kristèle Younès Humanitarian Expert 2 13-36185 S/2013/413 Report of the Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea pursuant to Security Council resolution 2060 (2012): Somalia Contents Page Abbreviations................................................................. -
State Collapse, Insurgency and Counterinsurgency
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