Federalism and Internal Conflicts Series edited by Soeren Keil and Eva Maria Belser Territorial Self-Government as a Conflict Management Tool Dawn Walsh Federalism and Internal Conficts Series Editors Soeren Keil Canterbury Christ Church University Canterbury, UK Eva Maria Belser University of Freiburg Freiburg, Switzerland This series engages in the discussions on federalism as a tool of internal confict resolution. Building on a growing body of literature on the use of federalism and territorial autonomy to solve ethnic, cultural, linguistic and identity conficts, both in the West and in non-Western countries, this global series assesses to what extent different forms of federalism and territorial autonomy are being used as tools of confict resolution and how successful these approaches are. We welcome proposals on theoretical debates, single case studies and short comparative pieces covering topics such as: – Federalism and peace-making in contemporary intra-state conficts – The link between federalism and democratization in countries facing intra-state confict – Secessionism, separatism, self-determination and power-sharing – Inter-group violence and the potential of federalism to transform conficts – Successes and failures of federalism and other forms of territorial autonomy in post-confict countries – Federalism, decentralisation and resource conficts – Peace treaties, interim constitutions and permanent power sharing arrangements – The role of international actors in the promotion of federalism (and other forms of territorial autonomy) as tools of internal confict reso- lution – Federalism and state-building – Federalism, democracy and minority protection For further information on the series and to submit a proposal for consideration, please get in touch with Ambra Finotello [email protected], or series editors Soeren Keil [email protected] and Eva Maria Belser [email protected] More information about this series at http://www.palgrave.com/gp/series/15730 Dawn Walsh Territorial Self-Government as a Confict Management Tool Dawn Walsh School of Law and Government Dublin City University Dublin, Ireland Federalism and Internal Conficts ISBN 978-3-319-77233-2 ISBN 978-3-319-77234-9 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77234-9 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018934654 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifcally the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microflms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specifc statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affliations. Cover illustration: Westend61 Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer International Publishing AG part of Springer Nature The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland This volume is dedicated to the political and community leaders who help us to imagine a brighter future. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank Prof. Stefan Wolff of the School of Politics and International Studies at the University of Birmingham and Dr. John Doyle of the School of Law and Government, at Dublin City University, for their guidance and insightful comments on an earlier version of this work. I would also like to thank those who agreed to be interviewed for this research or provided informal insights. I am grateful to Prof. Brendan O’Leary of the University of Pennsylvania whose support assisted me greatly in the completion of this volume. Finally, without the unfailing support and encouragement of my mother Grace and my husband Cian this project would not have been possible. The support of the Irish Research Council is gratefully acknowledged. vii CONTENTS Introduction: Guaranteeing Territorial Self-Government as a Confict Management Tool 1 Northern Ireland: Autonomy as a Confict Management Tool in a Stable State, Ethnonational Guarantors, and Low-Level International Assistance 35 Bosnia and Herzegovina: Ethnic Entities in a Multi-ethnic State? Instability and Disputed Interpretations of the State 69 The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Enhanced Local Government and Ethnic Confict 103 Moldova: Weak Autonomy, Central Government Neglect, and Mixed International Impact 141 Iraq: Iraqi Kurdistan, Unresolved Issues, and Changing International Priorities 179 Conclusion 219 Index 241 ix Introduction: Guaranteeing Territorial Self-Government as a Confict Management Tool Over the last century, the nature of violent confict has undergone a fun- damental transformation, with interstate confict gradually being replaced by intra-state group based confict as the most common and destructive. In the immediate aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was a particularly sharp rise in the number of such conficts, while this then decreased slowly and unevenly, it began to rise again in the mid- 2000s.1 Technological advances in warfare and developing international norms of minority protection combined to undermine security based responses to these conficts. This led to a large increase in peace agree- ments aimed at ending these violent disputes. Territorial self-government (TSG) is at the heart of many current and proposed confict resolution settlements. TSG provides territorially concentrated groups, usually those that are minorities within the wider state, with autonomy over a range of matters. This can provide such groups with security against discriminatory state practices and offcial recognition. Yet such arrange- ments are often unhappy compromises, with identity groups pursuing higher levels of autonomy, up to and including secession or unifcation with a neighbouring kin-state, and central government seeking to limit 1 Pettersson, T., & Wallensteen, P. (2015). Armed Conficts, 1946–2014. Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 52, No. 4, 536–550. © The Author(s) 2018 1 D. Walsh, Territorial Self-Government as a Confict Management Tool, Federalism and Internal Conficts, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77234-9_1 2 D. WALSH the level of autonomy to retain power and protect against state break-up. The compromise nature of such measures and the post-confict context in which they operate makes them inherently unstable. Many scholars argue that TSG is not an effective confict resolution mechanism.2 They argue that the autonomy structures provided by TSG facilitate further centrifugal activities by identity groups. The identity groups will utilise self-rule provided by the central government to manip- ulate the TSG arrangements, moving the compromise in the direction which they favour—more autonomy or even full independence—again bringing them into confict with the state. The ability of TSG to resolve confict can also be undermined by the reverse process: re-centralisation. Central governments may agree to autonomy provisions as part of a peace accord, however once the violence has ended, identity groups have surrender land or arms, and international attention has faded, they may re-centralise these powers. Such unilateral moves are again likely to lead to the re-emergence of confict. Even where the identity group or central government have no intention of manoeuvring the TSG provisions to achieve their preferred outcome, a lack of trust between the parties impedes the conclusion and operation of such agreements. Confict parties often have negative past experiences of interacting with each other. They do not typically have a history of coop- eration or reciprocal compromise; rather there may have been atrocities committed by both sides or long-standing patterns of discrimination. So despite prefering reform and institutions provided for in a peace agreement to continued violence, parties may not sign up to agreements. These def- cits of trust are particularly problematic in relation to TSG. They ensure that both identity groups and central governments are fearful that TSG will fail due to the possible aforementioned manipulations by the other. This book assesses the potential of guarantee mechanisms to over- come the innate instability of TSG as a confict resolution mechanism by examining fve cases (Northern Ireland, Bosnia, Macedonia, Moldova, and Iraq) where TSG was a key element of a political agreement aimed at ameliroating intra-state group based confict. This chapter develops a theory of TSG as a confict management tool, including an understand- ing of the causes of intra-state identity confict, the role of institutional design, and sources of instability. It then describes