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Getting to 23 Per Cent: Strategies to Scale up Renewables in Indonesia

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Getting to 23 Per Cent: Strategies to Scale up Renewables in Indonesia Getting to 23 Per Cent: Strategies to scale up renewables in Indonesia GSI REPORT Anissa Suharsono Neil McCulloch Mostafa Mostafa Richard Bridle Lucky Lontoh Philip Gass July 2019 © 2019 International Institute for Sustainable Development | IISD.org/gsi Getting to 23 Per Cent: Strategies to scale up renewables in Indonesia © 2019 The International Institute for Sustainable Development Published by the International Institute for Sustainable Development. International Institute for Sustainable Development The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) is an Head Office independent think tank championing sustainable solutions to 21st– 111 Lombard Avenue, Suite 325 century problems. Our mission is to promote human development and Winnipeg, Manitoba environmental sustainability. We do this through research, analysis and Canada R3B 0T4 knowledge products that support sound policy-making. Our big-picture Tel: +1 (204) 958-7700 view allows us to address the root causes of some of the greatest challenges Website: www.iisd.org facing our planet today: ecological destruction, social exclusion, unfair laws Twitter: @IISD_news and economic rules, a changing climate. IISD’s staff of over 120 people, plus over 50 associates and 100 consultants, come from across the globe and from many disciplines. Our work affects lives in nearly 100 countries. Part scientist, part strategist—IISD delivers the knowledge to act. IISD is registered as a charitable organization in Canada and has 501(c) (3) status in the United States. IISD receives core operating support from the Province of Manitoba. The Institute receives project funding from numerous governments inside and outside Canada, United Nations agencies, foundations, the private sector and individuals. About GSI The IISD Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI) supports international processes, national governments and civil society organizations to align Global Subsidies Initiative subsidies with sustainable development. GSI does this by promoting transparency on the nature and size of subsidies; evaluating the economic, International Environment House 2, 9 chemin de Balexert social and environmental impacts of subsidies; and, where necessary, 1219 Châtelaine advising on how inefficient and wasteful subsidies can best be reformed. Geneva, Switzerland GSI is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, and works with partners Canada R3B 0T4 located around the world. Its principal funders have included the governments of Denmark, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Tel: +1 (204) 958-7700 Switzerland and the United Kingdom, as well as the KR Foundation. Website: www.iisd.org/gsi Twitter: @globalsubsidies Getting to 23 Per Cent: Strategies to scale up renewables in Indonesia July 2019 Written by Anissa Suharsono, Neil McCulloch, Mostafa Mostafa, Richard Bridle, Lucky Lontoh and Philip Gass Photo: Ed Wray for IISD This report has been developed by IISD-GSI with financial support of the Swedish Energy Agency. The views expressed are those of IISD-GSI. IISD.org/gsi ii Getting to 23 Per Cent: Strategies to scale up renewables in Indonesia Abstract As part of the Paris Agreement, Indonesia committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 29 per cent below its baseline emissions by 2030 (and by 41 per cent conditional on international support). In addition to the 23 per cent renewable energy goal, Indonesia also has a target of reaching 100 per cent electrification ratio by 2020. These targets reflect the stated desire of the Indonesian government to meet its climate change commitments under the Paris Agreement, as well as its political commitment to the Indonesian people to supply all Indonesians with electricity. However, Indonesia is currently off target. Contrary to the government’s predictions, installed capacity additions of renewable energy power plants have been slow over the past three years. The total renewable installed capacity stood at 9.4 GW as of the end of 2018, well under the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources’ target of 15.5 GW by the second quarter of 2018. In 2018, the International Institute for Sustainable Development published a report identifying a series of “roadblocks” for renewable energy development in Indonesia. Moreover, the report argued that the low prices and constantly fluctuating policies were the result of a fundamental political challenge, or trilemma, facing the sector. Despite the challenging policy environment, there are also opportunities for real progress in several areas between now and 2025. This report addresses seven concrete ways in which the Indonesian government can overcome the existing obstacles and make significant progress to grow renewable energy before 2025. In particular, to make progress it will be necessary to change the way in which key institutions operate and the incentives that they face. But if these changes are made, it is possible for Indonesia to have an energy policy that fulfills energy sovereignty, moves toward energy self-sufficiency and achieves energy justice for all. IISD.org/gsi iii Getting to 23 Per Cent: Strategies to scale up renewables in Indonesia Table of Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................................................................................................iii Acronyms and Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................................................... v 1.0 Introduction: The challenge and solutions ..................................................................................................................... 1 2.0 Coal: Do not resuscitate! .........................................................................................................................................................6 2.1 The Current Situation ...............................................................................................................................................................................6 2.2 The Proposal ......................................................................................................................................................................................................7 2.3 Implementation Challenges ..............................................................................................................................................................10 2.4 The Bottom Line .........................................................................................................................................................................................10 3.0 Seize the Sun ..............................................................................................................................................................................11 3.1 The Current Situation .............................................................................................................................................................................11 3.2 The Proposals .................................................................................................................................................................................................15 3.2 Implementation Challenges ............................................................................................................................................................... 17 3.3 The Bottom Line .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 4.0 Getting the Price Right; Making the Price Just ........................................................................................................19 4.1 The Current Situation .............................................................................................................................................................................19 4.2 The Proposal ..................................................................................................................................................................................................20 4.3 Implementation Challenges ...............................................................................................................................................................22 4.4 The Bottom Line..........................................................................................................................................................................................22 5.0 The Biofuel Bonanza................................................................................................................................................................23 5.1 The Current Situation .............................................................................................................................................................................23 5.2 The Proposal ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27 5.3 Implementation Challenges ..............................................................................................................................................................28 5.4 The Bottom Line .........................................................................................................................................................................................28
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