PT Smartfren Telecom Tbk Long-Term Growth Tailwinds Abound BUY (TP: 150) 22 June 2021 We initiate coverage on PT Smartfren Telecom (FREN) with a BUY Winson Pangestu recommendation and target price of IDR 150 per share. Our investment Equity Analyst thesis revolves around FREN’s data-driven business model, operational synergy through its recent acquisition of 20.5% stake in Moratelindo +62 21 392 5550 ext. 610 Indonesia (Moratel), favorable telecom industry outlook, and a large
[email protected] addressable market. Large addressable market and favorable industry outlook. Recently, Jessen Soekamto we observe that price competition in the telecom sector has abated, with Equity Research Associate operators attempting to raise tariffs or reduce data quotas to support their +62 21 392 5550 ext. 610 ARPU. Additionally, news of Hutchison Indonesia’s potential merger with
[email protected] Indosat (ISAT) have sparked talks of the industry heading towards further consolidation. The recent draft of Omnibus Law is another point in favor of consolidation. Fierce price competition reminiscent of 2H20 is unlikely. With Indonesia’s internet penetration rate still playing catch up to its ASEAN Stock Information peers, FREN has an opportunity to add to its rapidly growing subscriber Sector Telecom base. We forecast the company's FY21-23F subscriber base to grow by 13.9% CAGR, resulting in FY21-23F revenue growth of 16.7% CAGR. Bloomberg Ticker FREN IJ Additionally, we forecast EBITDA to grow by 25.9% CAGR in FY21-23F Market Cap. (IDR bn) 38,817.5 while bottom line to turn positive in FY22, partly due to Moratel's acquisition.