Guelph, X January 2005

After the guns fall silent Sustainable peace analysis and risk mapping for post-conflict Angola Development Workshop – Angola supported by International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Netherlands Institute for Southern Africa (NIZA) Christian Aid (UK) Luanda – March 2006 Contents 1 Introduction 1.1 Problem statement 1.2 Objectives 2 Angola: 40 years of rapid change 2.1 Late colonial period social change 2.2 Social change during conflict 2.3 Post-conflict: achievements and questionable assumptions 3 Key issues for post-conflict reconstruction 3.1 Migration and social geography 3.2 Institutions 3.3 Livelihoods 3.4 Poverty and vulnerability 4 Analysis of conflict risks 5 Mitigating conflict risks 6 Recommendations for external players References Annexes 2 After the guns fall silent: Sustainable peace analysis and risk- mapping for post-conflict Angola 1 Introduction This report is based on a assessment of post-conflict Angola by Development Workshop, carried out in 2004 and 2005 through a review of existing recent research and situation reports, interviews with key informants, visits to four Provinces1 and localised case studies in these four Provinces. The aims of the report are to create awareness of the challenges of creating a sustainable peace in Angola and create an awareness of the issues, opportunities and constraints for Angola four years after the ceasefire of April 2002. 1.1 Problem statement Violent conflict in Angola ended in early 2002 after almost 40 years of conflicts2, though a situation of “not peace but not war” continues in Cabinda Province between the Angolan army (FAA) and separatist movements. The “Luena Memorandum” of April 2002 between the FAA and the military wing of UNITA re-initiated the Lusaka peace protocol of November 1994, and led to the incorporation of some UNITA troops in the national army, the effective demobilisation of the rest of UNITA troops, civilian administration and free movement throughout the country, the abandonment of camps by displaced people and the return of refugees from neighbouring countries. It has been widely recognised however that major challenges remain in the achievement of a true and sustainable peace for Angola, as in almost all post-conflict contexts. The post-conflict transition involves a large number of processes (economic, social and political) that have to be carried out under difficult circumstances. In Angola, physical, human and social capital has been lost during a long-term conflict. There are thus enormous challenges in transforming the cease-fire into a sustainable peace and in ensuring that the country does not, once again, lapse into violence. It has also been recognised that progress with the various post-conflict processes has been uneven, and that a lack of progress with the key post-conflict transition processes could have important implications for creating a sustainable peace. It is widely recognised (internationally and nationally) that there is only a short “window of opportunity” after the end of open conflict in which to do create a sustainable peace. Development Workshop recognised that is was important to understand progress with the post- conflict processes, and their viability and sustainability, and to identify any problems with implementation of these processes. Development Workshop recognised that it is particularly important to monitor progress, and to understand the dynamics of and challenges to peace, in areas distant from the capital where the challenges are greatest, where the capacity to implement some of the post-conflict processes is probably weakest and where a lack of progress may go unnoticed. Only if progress is monitored, and the dynamics of and challenges to peace understood, will it be possible to advocate actions that support peace-building. Development Workshop also recognised that is was important to understand more about what had happened during the years of conflict. There is an increasing realisation that chronic and prolonged conflict causes important socio-political and socio-demographic transformations, ranging from changes in household structure and domestic gender relations, to the reorganization of local community authority and institutions. These local social processes in turn affect peace- building and reconstruction efforts. As much attention needs to be paid in reconstruction efforts to local social relations and institutions as to national reconstruction and rebuilding state-level 1 Zaire, Huambo, Moxico and Benguela 2 Twenty-seven years of conflict between Independence and 2002, during which there were some short periods of peace, preceded by fourteen years of Independence struggle mainly affecting the extreme east and north of Angola. 3 institutions. Local social relations can be affected by conflict and the post-conflict environments, and they have an impact on peace-building and reconstruction. As much attention needs to be paid in peace-building to unresolved tensions within society as to resolving conflict between national-level parties who are contesting state power. Rebuilding national institutions will not necessarily reconstitute fragmented, disrupted, and significantly transformed societies. For social reconstruction it is necessary to understand more about how the fundamental building blocks of society, such as community and household level relations and organisation, are transformed by prolonged and chronic conflict, and how these transformations affect efforts to assist the transition from conflict to peaceful development. Therefore during 2004 and 2005 Development Workshop has been carrying out an assessment of post-conflict Angola, the outlook for sustainable peace and future risks. This has been done through a review of existing recent research and situation reports3, interviews with key informants, visits to four Provinces4 and localised case studies in these four Provinces. The main categories of information that have been collected, analysed and organised in a useful form are:- - the main post-conflict processes (such as population movements linked to return of refugees, closure of camps for displaced people and demobilisation of UNITA soldiers) - the state of infrastructure and the existence of plans to rehabilitate that infrastructure - the functioning of infrastructure or social services and plans to make it more functional - the functioning of local administration and community structures - the vulnerability of the population, according to social grouping and geographical location - the existence or risks of conflict, latent or open, in communities or between communities or outsiders. Field studies were carried out in four provinces representing different geo-social regions of Angola. These were chosen to demonstrate a range of different settlement and reintegration issues. This permitted the mapping of a range of risk situations where different configurations of actors come into contact with each other in their attempts to reintegrate at the end of the war. Research in Huambo, Benguela and Moxico was carried out by the Development Workshop team with grants from Christian Aid and NIZA5. IDRC6 has supported the extension of the study to Zaire province in Northern Angola. The field research was supplemented with documentation research which draws upon, largely unpublished, ‘grey’ documentation produced by Development Workshop and other partners drawing on research from other provinces including Kuando Kubango, Kwanza Sul, Lunda Sul and Uige. The World Bank has supported the desk research. 1.2 Objectives The overall aim of this research project was to create awareness of the challenges of creating a sustainable peace in Angola and create an awareness of the issues, opportunities and constraints for Angola four years after the ceasefire of April 2002. The objectives were to examine the impact of the prolonged and chronic conflict in Angola and of the processes that have occurred since the end of the conflict, and from this assess what needs to be addressed after such a long-running conflict and what support Angola requires in post-conflict period. 3 Such as the World Food Programme’s Vulnerability Assessments, situation reports of various UN agencies, provincial profiles produced for the Government’s reconstruction programmes, Government plans for infrastructure rehabilitation, vulnerability studies carried out for the Social Action Fund and research being carried out for the NGO Land Network about land conflicts. 4 Zaire, Huambo, Moxico and Benguela 5 The Netherlands Institute for Southern Africa 6 International Development Research Centre’s office for Eastern and Southern Africa in Nairobi. 4 This has been done by examining some of the processes that have occurred over the last 40 years in Angola, from the last years of the colonial period, which were years of rapid change, through the years of conflict and the first four years of the post-conflict period. These processes are examined in Section 2 of the report, which covers brings together recent information about the impact of the war on the population, and on processes such as re-integration and normalisation. It questions assumptions that are often made about the return of displaced people, re-integration and normalisation and suggests that these processes are far from complete. It questions the assumption, implicitly made in many post-conflict situations, that the end of conflict in itself is sufficient to lead to the resolution of social issues that arose during the conflict. Section 3 of the report examines more closely

Load more