Ucar Management of Ncar Science, Facilities, Education and Service

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UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE,FACILITIES,EDUCATION, AND SERVICE

Prepared for the National Science Foundation and UCAR Scientific Programs Evaluation Committee

Review of the Management of the National Center for Atmospheric Research

August 2001

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research National Center for Atmospheric Research UCAR Member Universities UCAR Academic Affiliates

University of Alabama in Huntsville Air Force Institute of Technology University of Alaska Fairbanks University of Charleston University of Arizona Clark Atlanta University Arizona State University Dalhousie University California Institute of Technology Jackson State University University of California, Davis University of Kansas University of California, Irvine University of Louisiana at Monroe University of California, Los Angeles Lyndon State College University of Chicago Universidad Metropolitana of Puerto Rico Colorado State University Millersville University of Pennsylvania University of Colorado City College of the City University of New York Cornell University State University of New York at Brockport University of Denver University of North Dakota Drexel University Plymouth State College Florida State University Rhodes College Georgia Institute of Technology St. Cloud State University Harvard University San Francisco State University University of Hawai’i San José State University Howard University South Dakota School of Mines and Technology University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign U.S. Naval Academy Iowa State University University of Iowa Johns Hopkins University UCAR International Affiliates University of Maryland at College Park Massachusetts Institute of Technology Australian National University, Canberra McGill University Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview, Ontario, Canada University of Miami Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia University of Michigan Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan University of Minnesota Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Mexico University of Missouri Centro del Agua del Trópico Húmedo para América Latina y Naval Postgraduate School El Caribe, Panama University of Nebraska–Lincoln City University of Hong Kong University and Community College System of Nevada Deutsche Forschungsanstalt für Luft und Raumfahrt, University of New Hampshire Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Germany University at Albany, State University of New York Hong Kong Royal Observatory New York University Hong Kong University of Science and Technology North Carolina State University Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, Tenerife, Spain Ohio State University Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Oklahoma Beijing Old Dominion University Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), São José dos Oregon State University Campos, Brazil Pennsylvania State University International Meteorological Institute, Stockholm, Sweden Princeton University Instituto Geofísico del Perú, Lima Purdue University Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, Madrid, Spain University of Rhode Island Johannes Gutenberg-Universität, Mainz, Germany Rice University Lanzhou Institute of Plateau Atmospheric Physics, Lanzhou, China Rutgers University Macquarie University, North Ryde, Australia Saint Louis University Malaysian Meteorological Service, Kuala Lumpur Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, Manila Observatory, Philippines San Diego Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany Stanford University Meteorological Research Institute, Ibaraki, Japan Texas A&M University Meteorological Service of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain University of Texas at Austin Monash University, Clayton, Australia Texas Tech University National Central University, Chung-Li, Taiwan University of Toronto National Taiwan University, Taipei Utah State University Peking University, Beijing, China University of Utah Risø National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark University of Virginia Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow Washington State University Seoul National University, Korea University of Washington Tel Aviv University, Israel University of Wisconsin–Madison Università degli Studi dell’Aquila, Italy University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee Universität Hamburg, Germany Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Universität Köln, Germany University of Wyoming University of Manchester, England Yale University University of Nairobi, Kenya York University University of Tokyo, Japan TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES...... v

PREFACE...... vii

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...... 1

II. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ...... 3 A. History and Background of UCAR and NCAR ...... 4 B. NSF, UCAR, NCAR and the Universities: A Unique Partnership ...... 6 C. Management Philosophy and Objectives ...... 6 D. Present Review of NCAR and UCAR ...... 7

III. STRATEGIC PLANNING AND PRIORITY SETTING ...... 9 A. External and Internal Context ...... 10 1. NSF Strategic Plan ...... 11 2. NSF Directorate for Geosciences Strategic Plan: Geosciences beyond 2000 (GEO 2000) ...... 11 B. NCAR Strategic Plan ...... 11 1. Strategic Planning Process ...... 11 2. Scientific Strategy ...... 12 3. Strategy for NCAR’s Scientific Personnel and Diverse Workforce ...... 13 4. Information Technology Strategy ...... 14 5. Education and Outreach Strategy ...... 14 C. Reporting and Priority Setting ...... 14 1. Annual NCAR Program Plan ...... 16 2. Budget Reviews ...... 16 3. NCAR Directors Committee ...... 16

IV. PROGRAM PERFORMANCE ...... 17 A. Fundamental Research ...... 17 1. Extra-Solar Planet Discoveries ...... 17 2. North Atlantic Oscillation ...... 18 3. Geophysical Turbulence Program ...... 19 B. Understanding and Predicting the Earth System ...... 20 1. Community Climate System Model ...... 20 Simulation of the 20th and 21st Century Climate ...... 20 2. The Versatile MM5 ...... 21 Hurricane Formation ...... 21 Forecasting the Surprise Storm of January 2000 ...... 22 3. Weather Research and Forecast Model ...... 23 4. Coronal Mass Ejections ...... 23 5. Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere ...... 24 C. Advanced Scientific Facilities ...... 25 1. Observing Facilities and Field Program Support ...... 25 GPS Dropsonde ...... 25 Tropospheric Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox ...... 28 2. High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research ...... 29

i 3. Computing Facilities ...... 30 Scientific Visualization ...... 32 4. Community Models ...... 33 5. Data Services ...... 34 D. Human Dimensions and Societal Impacts ...... 35 1. Impacts of the 1997–98 El Niño ...... 35 2. Land Use and Climate ...... 36 3. Mitigating Disaster ...... 37 Hurricane Camille...... 37 The 1997 Red River Flood ...... 37 E. Education and Training ...... 37 1. Undergraduate, Graduate, and Professional Education ...... 38 Advanced Study Program Summer Colloquium ...... 38 Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science...... 38 Digital Library for Earth System Education...... 39 Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education and Training ...... 40 Classroom Grants...... 40 2. K–12 Education ...... 40 NCAR Geoscience Education Workshop...... 40 NCAR Education and Outreach Web Presence...... 40 LEARN II: Atmospheric Science Explorers...... 40 Web Weather for Kids...... 40 3. Outreach to the Public ...... 41 Workshops on Science, Technology, and Education...... 41 F. Applications and Technology/Information Transfer ...... 41 1. Weather Support to Deicing Decision Making ...... 41 2. Aviation Digital Data Service...... 42 G. Cross-Divisional and Interdisciplinary Programs ...... 42 1. Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model...... 43 2. Geophysical Statistics Project ...... 44 H. Community Advocacy...... 45

V. MAJOR NON-NSF SPONSORED PROGRAMS...... 47 A. Research Applications Program...... 47 1. The Auto-Nowcaster ...... 47 2. Advanced Operational Aviation Weather System ...... 48 3. Dynamic, Integrated Forecast System ...... 49 B. High-Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder ...... 49

VI. EXTERNAL LINKAGES ...... 51 A. Programs and Projects ...... 51 B. Visitor Programs ...... 53 C. Reciprocal Appointments ...... 54 D. Workshops and Colloquia ...... 54

VII. MANAGEMENT INFORMATION ...... 57 A. Management Roles ...... 57 1. NSF ...... 57 2. UCAR Members and the University Community ...... 58

ii 3. UCAR Trustees ...... 58 4. Committees of the UCAR Members ...... 59 5. UCAR President’s Office ...... 60 6. NCAR Director’s Office ...... 61 7. NCAR Division Directors ...... 61 8. NCAR Staff ...... 62 9. Scientific Appointment Policies and Procedures ...... 62 10. Review of NCAR and UCAR ...... 63 Response to the 1997 NCAR Review...... 64 B. Recent Management Accomplishments ...... 67 1. Fiscal Stewardship...... 67 Audit History...... 67 Property Management ...... 67 Inspector General Audits...... 67 2. Financing Innovation...... 68 3. Human Resources...... 68 American Physical Society Review...... 68 Diversity Task Force...... 68 4. Information Technology ...... 68 Information Technology Council...... 68 Year 2000 Planning ...... 68 Boulder Research and Administrative Network ...... 69 Corporate Technology Training Center ...... 69 5. Physical Plant ...... 69

VIII. SUMMARY AND LOOK TO THE FUTURE ...... 71

IX. FINANCIALINFORMATION...... 73 A. NCAR Budget History...... 73

APPENDIX A – NSF 1030 Form, FY 2001...... 75

APPENDIX B – UCAR Outstanding Publication Awards: Winners and Nominees...... 77

APPENDIX C – Patents and Disclosures by NCAR Scientists and Engineers 1997–2001...... 79

APPENDIX D – Peer-Reviewed Publications of NCAR Scientists and Staff ...... 81

APPENDIX E – Acronym List...... 143

iii

LIST OF FIGURESFIGURES ANDAND TABLESTABLES

Figure 1: Cover of UCAR at 40 ...... 3 Figure 2: UCAR president with three signers of “Blue Book”...... 5 Figure 3: UCAR and NCAR organization...... 9 Figure 4: Number of peer-reviewed publications by NCAR authors ...... 17 Figure 5: Transit of extra-solar planet ...... 18 Figure 6: North Atlantic climate change linked to NAO ...... 18 Figure 7: CCSM modeled climate of the 20th century ...... 21 Figure 8: Simulated rainfall patterns for Hurricane Diana ...... 22 Figure 9: Modeled and observed precipitation for surprise storm ...... 22 Figure 10: Coronal mass ejection ...... 23 Figure 11: MOPITT measurements of CO ...... 24 Figure 12: Map of recent field programs by ATD ...... 26 Figure 13: NCAR GPS dropsonde ...... 26 Figure 14a: Predicted track of Hurricane Debby without GPS dropsonde ...... 28 Figure 14b: Predicted track of Hurricane Debby with GPS dropsonde ...... 28 Figure 15: Gulfstream V aircraft ...... 30 Figure 16: History of supercomputing at NCAR ...... 31 Figure 17: Growth of total sustained computer capacity at NCAR ...... 31 Figure 18: NCAR’s supercomputers and mass storage system ...... 32 Figure 19: Countries involved in UN-funded El Niño study ...... 35 Figure 20: Modern and natural land cover, Midwest and eastern seaboard ...... 36 Figure 21: SOARS protégés 2001 ...... 39 Figure 22: Icing on aircraft wing ...... 41 Figure 23: Major integrative NCAR programs ...... 43 Figure 24: WACCM-01 ...... 44 Figure 25: NCAR Auto-Nowcaster forecast...... 48 Figure 26: Scientific visitors to NCAR 1998–2000 ...... 54 Figure 27: UCAR members’representatives and UCAR/NCAR staff ...... 57 Figure 28: UCAR trustees ...... 59 Figure 29: NCAR Directors Committee ...... 62

Table 1: Calendar of management, planning, budgeting ...... 15 Table 2: Growth in Demand for UCAR F&A Support FY 1987–2000...... 67 Table 3: NCAR’s NSF Funding History FY 1998–2000 ...... 73 Table 4: NCAR’s Expenditure History FY 1998–2000...... 74

PREFACE

We provide this material in support of the National questions, building advocacy and generating resources Science Foundation (NSF) review of management of to bring to bear on these issues, and coordinating peo- the National Center for Atmospheric Research ple and facilities to study these questions through (NCAR). This review occurs in the fall of 2001, the program planning, development, implementation, and fourth year of the current five-year cooperative agree- program performance. ment between NSF and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), and follows the recent NSF provided specific guidelines on the format to review of NCAR’s divisions and programs. be followed in preparing this documentation. In accor- dance with those guidelines, the document covers The current review seeks to assess the quality and NC A R ’ s strategic planning and priority setting, pro- ef fectiveness of UCAR and NCAR management and gram highlights and scientific achievements, linkages leadership. In particular, it seeks to evaluate the impact with other UCAR programs and with the broader scien- that NCAR as a center has had on the quality of the tific community, and management information. It na t i o n ’ s atmospheric and related sciences; the center’s outlines the broad organizational and management contributions to NSF’s mission and themes of Too l s , aspects of UCAR and NCAR, including governance by Ideas, and People; the community service the center the universities, interactions with and service to the provides; the effectiveness of cross-divisional interac- external community, and human resources, including tions; and the center’s role in drawing underrepresented building diversity in human capital. Information groups into the field. The review seeks to evaluate the is provided on two major non–NSF-sponsored progress that UCAR and NCAR have made, within the programs—the Research Applications Program and constraints of NSF funding, in the context of the six the High-Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder—that themes proposed in 1997: (1) fundamental research, (2) bring additional breadth and outreach to the center’s understanding and predicting the Earth system, (3) activities and make important scientific and societal advanced scientific facilities, (4) human dimensions contributions in their own right. Because of limitations and societal impacts, (5) education and training, and of space, references to supporting documents and Web (6) applications and technology/information transfer. sites are provided throughout. A glossary of acronyms This integrated view of the institution, with emphasis appears at the end of the document. We recognize the on linkages, cross-divisional programs, and the synergy di f ficulty facing reviewers of such a large and complex among science, technology, and education and outreach, program, and we thank them for their effo r t s . demonstrates the unique breadth and the extensive contributions of the national center and its staff.

Following NSF guidance, this is not a traditional management review focusing on management and administrative processes or on budgets. Rather, this document describes the results of management and leadership, including identifying important scientific

vii

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

e are pleased to present these materials for programs are best exemplified by its sustained the National Science Foundation’s review of scientific and technological accomplishments. W the management of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) by the University NCAR le a d s the research community through Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). Th e strategic planning, the initiation of new programs, and document summarizes UCAR’s management approach, acquisition and development of observational and com- ph i l o s o p h y , and procedures. It also describes highlights putational facilities. NCAR has led the development of of accomplishments in the areas of science, facilities, community models to improve our understanding of education, outreach, technology transfer, and service, we a t h e r , upper-atmospheric, solar, climate, ocean, and with an emphasis on the period 1997–2001. land-surface processes. NCAR has also brought together its capabilities in mesoscale weather research, NCAR is managed through a unique three-way atmospheric sensing technology, and societal applica- partnership among NSF, UCAR, and the university tions to improve the ability to model and predict co m m u n i t y . This complex and highly effective set of weather processes and severe weather events. NCAR’s relationships has enabled the center to both lead and world-class scientific expertise enables research support the broad university community for more than breakthroughs, such as the discovery of extra-solar 40 years. NCAR has extended this heritage over the planets and the elucidation of the dynamics of the period of the current cooperative agreement with NSF North Atlantic Oscillation. through the execution of a broad scientific program of research centered on the most important and challeng- NCAR se rv e s the community with scientific ing problems in the atmospheric and related sciences. program planning, state-of-the-art observational and computing facilities, field project and data support, Of particular significance for this review is the software, and educational resources. For example, recent UCAR-led strategic planning process that has NCAR has been a leader in the development and main- involved more than two years of community reflection tenance of aircraft, radars, lidars, and atmospheric and discussion. This process has included surveys, work- sounding systems. Such facilities extend the experi- shops, forums, and other activities. It has mobilized mental reach of the community to enable large - s c a l e , NC A R ’ s scientists and engineers and their university coordinated field programs. NCAR also serves the colleagues and has culminated in a new strategic plan community by providing access to supercomputing articulated in three interlinked documents for i) science, resources, mass storage, and data management and ii) education and outreach, and iii) information technolo- visualization tools. NCAR has specific plans to aug- gy . The strategic plan sets the course for NCAR for the ment its observational and computational infrastructure next decade as an institution that will bring together the to keep pace with the accelerating needs of the broad people, ideas, and tools to make rapid progress in the research community. areas of basic atmospheric research, provision of observational and computational facilities, technology Fostering linkages across NCAR’s divisions, with tr a n s f e r , and education and outreach. The plan is fully other parts of UCAR, and with the external community consistent with the NSF Geosciences beyond 2000 st r a t - is an important part of the way in which NCAR egy and other recent national planning reports. conducts all its programs. Scientific collaborators come from the universities, other research facilities, As a national center, NCAR remains committed to international groups, and industry. Visitor programs, the highest standards of excellence: in research, in workshops, and symposia represent visible and central community service, in the development and nurturing mechanisms for fostering such collaborations. Nearly of a diverse and talented staff, and in all other aspects two-thirds of NCAR’s peer-reviewed publications are a of its work. The quality and impact of NCAR’s result of joint efforts with outside authors.

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Education and outreach are increasingly important The future for UCAR and NCAR is bright. We parts of NCAR’s activities. For many years the have recruited a high-caliber and diverse group of Advanced Study Program has been recognized world- early-career scientists who will help provide the human wide. In recent years, the traditional educational focus capital to implement the new and ambitious strategic has broadened to include secondary and elementary plan. The scientific strategy addresses critically impor- schools, undergraduate education, and the general tant problems of increasing significance to human public through Web-based informal science education, so c i e t y . In partnership with the universities, NCAR tours, and exhibits. Anew UCAR Office of Education and UCAR stand ready to provide service and leader- and Outreach serves to coordinate these programs and ship to the broad research community and thus seek additional leverage and partnerships. Sustained enhance the national capability in the atmospheric ef forts are under way to increase the diversity of peo- and related sciences. ple, backgrounds, and ideas at NCAR, and new initiatives are being implemented in the areas of training, recruitment, mentoring, and workplace environment, in recognition of the fact that people are NC A R ’ s most important res o u rc e .

NC A R ’ s commitment to technology and knowledge transfer is evident across the organization. Effo r t s in aviation weather hazards research and applications are making aviation safer and more efficient. Studies of the impacts of climate and weather events are helping the United Nations and other groups plan more effe c - tively to reduce societal vulnerability. These and other technology transfer efforts are consistent with the founding principles of NCAR, as well as with the second merit review criterion of NSF, which emphasizes the broader societal impacts of research.

Programs funded by agencies other than NSF complement and extend the center’s capabilities. Primary among these are the High-Resolution Dynamics Limb So u n d e r , funded by NASA, and the Research Applications Program, funded by a combination of agencies. These programs enhance NCAR’s NSF-funded scientific program, strengthen internal and external linkages, and provide opportunities for other agencies to gain access to the center’s unique capabilities.

UCAR has instituted a number of effective management processes that ensure high levels of fiscal responsibility and administrative support. The roles of the various officers of UCAR and NCAR are described, as are the numerous channels that provide for effective internal and external communication. Th e report describes recent management highlights, including creative approaches to training, mentoring, networking, upgrades to the physical plant, and fiscal stewardship.

2 II. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

n 2000 the University Corporation for At m o s p h e r i c Research and the National Center for At m o s p h e r i c I Research celebrated their 40th anniversary in partnership with the National Science Foundation and the university community.1 Over these 40 years, NCAR, under the management of UCAR, has made fundamental scientific and infrastructural contributions to the atmospheric and related sciences and the geosciences in general. These have included developing the basic scientific underpinnings for weather forecast models; understanding the coupled ocean/atmosphere climate system, including the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and other atmospheric dynamical perturbations; understanding the detailed chemistry of the stratosphere and troposphere, including depletion of stratospheric ozone by human-made chemicals; studies of solar magnetism, helioseismic properties of the solar interior, and coronal mass ejections; the discovery of extra-solar-s y s t e m planets; and studies of turbulence, the microphysics of clouds, and the socio-economic impacts of severe we a t h e r . NCAR has transferred gains in fundamental Figure 1. Cover of UCAR at 40 understanding to practical applications in the public and private sectors, including protecting aircraft opera- Robert Rosner (University of Chicago), T.N . tors from low-level wind shear hazards. NCAR has Krishnamurti (Florida State University), Richard Reed also supported the universities by providing advanced (University of Washington), Denise Stephenson-Hawk observing facilities for use in many field studies around (then at Spelman College), and John Zillman (Bureau the world, increasingly powerful supercomputer facili- of Meteorological Research and Climate, Australia). ties and related software, a variety of community models, and valuable research data sets that describe During the 40th anniversary year we also took the the Earth and the Sun. opportunity to look at research challenges and new working environments that will shape the future of An award-winning publication, UCAR at Forty , UCAR and NCAR. The UCAR Members’ Fora for describes some of the major achievements of the first 1999 and 2000 were devoted to a dialog with the com- 40 years of UCAR and NCAR and is included with this munity about issues and opportunities for UCAR and review document. (It is also available at http://www. NCAR to meet community needs in the future (see ncar.ucar.edu/review01.) UCAR at Forty in c l u d e s box). Through a survey of more than 2,000 members of essays from a number of distinguished collaborators the university community, we explored community describing the high personal and professional value issues as well as the current suite of scientific and edu- they have placed in NCAR’s scientific programs and cational activities at UCAR. The responses to the leadership, and the part the institution has had over the survey contributed significantly to the NCAR strategic years in advancing the scientific body of knowledge. plan and to the Education and Outreach strategic plan These contributors include Susan Solomon (NOAA), http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/review01.2

1 An article, “UCAR and NCAR at 40,” published in the June 2001 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, describes the celebratory and planning activities of the 40th year of NCAR and UCAR. 2 For this review, we have collected pertinent references at this single Web site.

3 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

A. History and Background of research in the atmospheric sciences. After more than a dozen meetings, the committee made its recommen- UCAR and NCAR dations to the academy in February 1958. These were (1) that basic research at the universities be substan- To understand UCAR and NCAR and their rela- tially augmented, and (2) that a National Institute for tionship with the universities and NSF, it is helpful to Atmospheric Research be established. consider the origins of this special coalition and the ongoing leadership provided by the universities. Th i s The university community responded quickly and intrinsic university role has been continuous since on 17 February 1959 the University Committee on NC A R ’ s founding and affects all aspects of UCAR Atmospheric Research submitted its report, and NCAR. Pre l i m i n a r y Plans for a National Institute for Atmospheric Research (the now-famous “Blue Book”), In 1956 the president of the National Academy of to the director of NSF, Alan Waterman. Shortly there- Sciences appointed a Committee on Meteorology to after the University Corporation for At m o s p h e r i c undertake a searching examination of the status of Research was founded “to acquire, construct, establish,

UCAR Community Yea r -Long Dialog and Surve y

1999 Forum. This forum looked at the opportunities and challenges as framed in the 1998 Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate rep o r t , The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the Twenty-First Century and NSF Geosciences beyond 2000: Un d e r s t a n d i n g and Predicting Earth’s Environment and Habitability. The issues identified at this meeting formed the basis for the UCAR community surve y , sent to over 2,000 members of the broad atmospheric and related sciences community in May of 2000.

2000 Forum. This forum focused on key themes identified from the community surve y : • Ob s e r vational Facilities/Instrumentation/Field Program Support • Computing Facilities/Community Models • Da t a : Real-time and Ar chived Data, Data Sets, Data Strea m s • Education and Trai n i n g • Recruiting Graduate Students

Community Surve y . The Web-based survey sought quantitative data to assess the quality and number of university interac t i o n s with UCAR and NCAR programs and to understand future needs of the community. The response was strong; more than 29% of the 2,048 people polled ret u r ned the surve y .

The respondents indicated widespread participation in all UCAR/NCAR activities. The greatest participation was as (1) users of data sets or data strea m s , (2) visitors, (3) collaborat o r s , (4) users of UCAR softwar e, and (5) users of community models.

When asked what increased areas of service to the community UCAR should consider, the leading suggestions were (1) data sets and data strea m s , (2) educational, tra i n i n g , and recruiting materials, (3) community wor k s h o p s , (4) provision of real-time data to the un i v e r s i t i e s , and (5) instrumentation and community models (tied for fifth place).

The community also exp r essed high interest in participating in UCAR activities; of most interest were (1) collaboration with UCAR/NCAR scientists and educators, (2) use of community models, (3) UCAR gove r nance activities, (4) participation in UCAR educational activities, and (5) use of UCAR computational facilities.

A complete summary of the responses is presented at ht t p : / / w w w. n c a r. u c a r. e d u / re v i e w 0 1 .

4 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

own, equip, and operate an institute for atmospheric research and other laboratories and facilities for atmospheric research and for research in related fi e l d s . ”

Th e r e are four compelling reasons for establishing a National Institute for Atmospheric Research:

1. The need to mount an attack on the fundamental atmospheric problems on a scale commensurate with their global nature and importance.

2. The fact that the extent of such an attack req u i r es facilities and technological assistance beyond those that Figure 2. UCAR president Richard Anthes with three signers of can properly be made available at individual the "Blue Book" — Reid Bryson, Tom Malone, and Roscoe un i v e r s i t i e s . Braham — at the celebration of the 40th anniversary of UCAR, 10 October 2000. 3. The fact that the difficulties of the problems are such that they req u i r e the best talents from various disci- is articulated today in the UCAR strategic plan UC A R plines to be applied to them in a coordinated fashion, 20 0 1 (http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/review01), is on a scale not feasible in a university department. to support, enhance, and extend the capabilities 4. The fact that such an Institute offers the possibility of of the university community, nationally and pre s e r ving the natural alliance of res e a r ch and educa- internationally; to understand the behavior of the tion without unbalancing the university program s . at m o s p h e r e and related systems and the global — from the summary of the “Blue Book,” Pre l i m i n a r y Plans for a National en v i r onment; and to foster the transfer of Institute for Atmospheric Research, Fe b r u a r y 1959, pre p a r ed by the University Committee on Atmospheric Research knowledge and technology for the betterment of life on Earth .

The first meeting of the UCAR Board of Tru s t e e s In fulfilling this mission, NCAR and UCAR, in was held on 2 April 1959. Later in the year, UCAR collaboration with university scientists, carry out a signed a contract with NSF to operate the institute, broad and cutting-edge scientific research program and renamed the National Center for At m o s p h e r i c develop and provide to the universities observational Research, with support from NSF. The UCAR trustees and computational facilities, community models, data recruited Walter Orr Roberts as the first director of sets of field observations and model simulations, and NCAR and president of UCAR, and in June of 1960 educational materials. Through a spectrum of basic NCAR and UCAR were formally established. Roberts and applied research, we transfer knowledge and tech- described the goals that the universities, NSF, and nology to the public and private sectors. We strive to UC A R ’ s first leaders set for the new center: “First in help meet the future human resource needs of the our purposes was for NCAR to be an intellectual center nation for geosciences, including focused efforts to where basic science of the utmost quality would be cul- increase the diversity of the field. We provide a focal tivated both through the research of the permanent staff point for atmospheric and related sciences in the nation and through cooperative work with scientists from by leading and assisting in the development of commu- other research and educational institutions in the nity plans and communicating and advocating to the United States, Canada, and abroad.” public, Congress, and the executive branch of government the importance and value of the field. In so More than 40 years later, the basic mission of doing, we contribute directly to all three parts of the UCAR has remained remarkably true to the vision of NSF mission: ideas, tools, and people, and to Wal t Roberts and its university founders. That mission, as it Ro b e r t s ’ s vision of “science in service to society.”

5 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

B. NSF, UCAR, NCAR, and defining and revising institutional goals, allocating resources, directing activities to meet the goals, and the Universities: A Unique conducting peer review. Partnership

The symbiotic relationship among the universities, C. Management Philosophy UCAR, NCAR, and NSF has been essential to imple- and Objectives menting the scientific and service goals of the institution since the very beginning. Key to this success has been the overarching paradigm: High-quality management, including provision of administrative support, is an essential part of any success- involvement of the universities in all aspects of ful organization. UCAR and NCAR management enables UCAR and NCAR’s struc t u r e and activities, the NCAR staff and collaborators to achieve the highest including governance; defining the UCAR and levels of accomplishment in NCAR’s mission areas. In so NCAR missions; developing strategic plans; doing, management encourages and facilitates the attrib- setting goals and priorities; collaborating in utes that a national center must have to be successful: res e a r ch, educational, technical, and other activities; and conducting regular peer rev i e w s • Leadership and Service: As a national center, of UCAR and NCAR. NCAR must both lead and serve the broad university community. To accomplish this, management This complex and multifaceted governance and must nurture the highest possible commitment to management structure has few, if any, analogs with excellence in the generation of new scientific other organizations in the United States or other coun- knowledge (the ideas), development of human cap- tries. It reflects our constituents’investment in the ital for the field (the people), and development and partnership and the high value UCAR holds for them. deployment of computational and observational (A list of UCAR members and affiliates appears on the infrastructure (the tools) to support basic and inside cover of this document.) applied research in the geosciences.

This university involvement is key to setting gen- • Pr ogrammatic Quality: NC A R ’ s programs must eral institutional strategies, goals, and priorities, based be of the highest quality for it to serve as a focal on an iterative, consensus-building process involving point for the scientific community and meet NSF officials and program directors, UCAR mem- responsibilities to its sponsors and the taxpaying b e r s ’ representatives and members’ committees, the public, whose dollars support the center. Board of Trustees and its committees, many NCAR advisory committees, UCAR managerial and • In t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y Scope: NCAR must interact scientific staff, and members of the larger national extensively and effectively with all of the disci- and international scientific community. Within this plines within its own programs and with broad context, specific ideas and plans are developed universities and other organizations nationally and by the creative scientists, engineers, and educators in gl o b a l l y . It must expand the intellectual envelope NCAR, the universities, and UCAR, consistent with through developing partnerships in its research and overall community priorities as articulated in studies educational programs with the broad science, of the National Research Council and similar bodies business, and policy communities. and in the UCAR and NCAR missions. It is a distinctly consultative, creative process that • Bre a d t h : NCAR as a center must possess suffi - evolves continuously. cient breadth to address the most important and challenging interdisciplinary problems inherent in The roles of the key players implementing this the atmospheric sciences and also to ensure that it paradigm are discussed in Section VII, including can interact with the breadth of talent within the

6 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

university community. To address these problems D. Present Review of NCAR requires teams of people working together over extended periods of time. and UCAR

• Re s p o n s i v e n e s s : NCAR must be responsive to the Regular peer reviews of NCAR and UCAR are needs of its constituencies. Because of NCAR’s essential to maintaining the quality and relevance of role as a national center, its constituents are many the institutions. Part 9 of Section VII of this document and include its sponsors (particularly its principal describes the several mechanisms by which these sp o n s o r , NSF), the universities, and the public. reviews are carried out. Beginning in the present year (2001), NSF and the UCAR Scientific Programs • Flexibility and Innovation: NCAR must be flexible Evaluation Committee (SPEC) are carrying out an in order to adapt in a timely manner to new opportu- extensive two-year review of the programs in NCAR nities and to lead in creating such opportunities. and the quality of NCAR and UCAR management and leadership. Each NCAR division has prepared a docu- • Human Capital Development: NC A R ’ s success ment describing in detail its accomplishments and depends critically upon the quality of the staff. plans in preparation for review by an external panel. It is management’s responsibility to attract and The divisional documents are available at http://www. retain excellent staff members who work together ncar.ucar.edu/review01. Insight into the quality and to achieve individual and collective goals. productivity of NCAR may be obtained from these Management must ensure that staff members are documents as well as from the peer-r e v i e w e d given the opportunity to grow to their full potential, balancing the need for supporting each scientist’s professional interests and creativity with programmatic needs. Creating this kind of nurturing Selected Recent Honors and Awards Received environment requires that the institution provide by NCAR Staff competitive compensation and benefits and the resources needed to do the work, involve staff in Richard Carbone, Cleveland Abbe Awa rd ,A m e r i c a n priority-setting processes, and communicate those Meteorological Society, 20 0 1 priorities effectively and regularly at all levels. Clara Deser, Cl a r ence Leroy Meisinger Award , American Meteorological Society, 19 9 9 • Management Support: Management must provide high-quality technical and administrative Scott Doney, James B. Macelwane Medal, Am e r i c a n support as well as the space and facilities neces- Ge o p h ysical Union, 19 9 9 sary to carry out the research, education and Arthur Hundhausen, Arc t o wski Medal, Na t i o n a l outreach, and service parts of the UCAR and Academy of Sciences, 19 9 9 NCAR missions. Management must also develop and implement supportive, fair, and consistent James Hurrell, Cl a r ence Leroy Meisenger Award , policies for employees and visitors. American Meteorological Society, 20 0 1 Gerald Meehl, Ed i t o r ’s Award , Jo u r nal of Climate, • Fiscal Responsibility: UCAR and NCAR manage- 20 0 0 ment must demonstrate the highest possible standards of fiscal responsibility and integrity, to Robert Serafin, Pr esident of the Am e r i c a n ensure that the institution’s financial resources are Meteorological Society, 20 0 1 used effectively and effi c i e n t l y . Kevin Tre n b e r t h , Jule G. Charney Awa rd ,A m e r i c a n Meteorological Society, 20 0 0 Attention to these imperatives guides the management approach that has enabled UCAR and NCAR to Warren Was h i n g t o n , Charles Anderson Award , contribute to the national science infrastructure in the American Meteorological Society, 20 0 0 many ways that are described in this document.

7 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

publications, often co-authored with university colleagues; the many linkages to universities; the number of NCAR visitors and workshops; and the recognition of NCAR staff by their peers through prestigious national and international awards.

The remainder of this document presents the processes used for strategic planning and priority setting; selected highlights of the accomplishments of NCAR and UCAR over approximately the past three years, including contributions towards science, education and outreach, diversity, and knowledge and technology transfer; a discussion of major NCAR activities sponsored by agencies other than NSF, including information on how they complement the mission and goals of NSF, UCAR, and NCAR; a description of linkages and interactions with the broad national and international community; additional information on UCAR and NCAR management, including a functional description of the roles of the various offi - cers and a discussion of recent corporate highlights; and, finally, a short look to the future of the institution. Lists of peer-reviewed publications and inventions, patents, and patent applications from 1997 to the present are given in the appendices.

8 III.III. STRATEGICSTRATEGIC PLANNINGPLANNING ANDAND PRIORITYPRIORITY SETTINGSETTING

CAR’s fo u r -pronged mission requires the cen- The organization chart for UCAR, shown in ter to engage in rigorous planning and to Figure 3, reflects the breadth of the institution and its Nbalance priorities in order to focus on the most mission. NCAR is composed of four science divisions, pressing needs of the science, the scientific community, two facility divisions, and several programs. The sci- educators, and society. It is entific, technical, and administrative staff of these entities plans, manages, implements, and evaluates the to conduct a high-quality res e a r ch program in col - activities of the center. As can be seen, the primary laboration with universities and other institutions; governance responsibility resides in the 66 UCAR pr ovide state-of-the-art observational and compu - member institutions and the Board of Trustees. tational facilities to the atmospheric science community; transfer technology to the public and private sectors; and support and enhance atmo - spheric and related sciences education.

Figure 3. UCAR and NCAR organization

9 STRATEGIC PLANNING AND PRIORITY SETTING

A. External and Internal Context Of particular importance to the establishment of priorities at NCAR are the following evaluation criteria: • consistency with the NSF merit review criteria, Priorities at NCAR are guided by principles which focus on two main aspects of our research described in several national and institutional docu- — its scientific merit and intellectual quality, and ments, including NSF’s strategic plan and the other its broad impact on society and the nation’s documents summarized below. These priorities are research infrastructure; reflected in the annual NCAR program plans, which NCAR submits to NSF for review. Other factors, • consistency with NSF’s core strategies to develop including long-range community plans and university intellectual capital, integrate research and educa- interactions, are also used to evaluate the appropriate- tion, and promote partnerships; ness of NCAR’s research agenda. The development of • consistency with the goals of NSF Geosciences the new NCAR strategic plan, for example, was beyond 2000; informed by the 1999 and 2000 UCAR Members’ Forums and the results of the 2000 community survey • consistency with NCAR and UCAR’s mission (http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/review01). statements; and • consistency with the research foci articulated in the 1997 NCAR/UCAR proposal for the current cooperative agreement with NSF.

Strategy Documents NATIONAL NSF GPRA strategic plan, 2001–2006 NSF Geosciences strategic plan, 2000: NSF Geosciences beyond 2000: Understanding and Predicting Earth’s Environment and Habitability National Research Council, 2001: Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millenium National Research Council, 2000: Environmental Science and Engineering for the 21st Century National Research Council, 1999: Our Common Journey: A Transition toward Sustainability National Research Council, 1999: Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, 1998: The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the Twenty-First Century NSF strategic plan, 1995, NSF in a Changing World

INSTITUTIONAL National Center for Atmospheric Research, draft strategic plan, 2001: NCAR as an Integrator: A Vision for Science, Facilities, Service, Education, Outreach, and Leadership in the Atmospheric Sciences and Geosciences University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, 2001: Education and Outreach strategic plan National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2000: NCAR’s Strategic Plan for End-to-End High-Performance Simulation: Towards a Robust,Agile, and Comprehensive Knowledge System for the Geosciences University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, 1997: NCAR and UCAR at the Millennium, NSF Cooperative Agreement Proposal for 1998–2003 University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, 1996: UCAR 2001:A Mid-Course Assessment University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, 1992: UCAR 2001:A Strategic Outlook

10 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

1. NSF Strategic Plan UCAR 2001: A Strategic Outlook In 1995, NSF developed its strategic plan, NSF in a Changing Wor l d , which articulated three goals for the OVERARCHING STRATEGY foundation. The first is to enable the United States to To support and broaden university-based education uphold a position of world leadership in all aspects of and research in an evolutionary way and in a manner science, mathematics, and engineering. The second is to that builds upon and is grounded in the basic atmo- promote the discovery, integration, dissemination, and spheric sciences employment of new knowledge in service to society. The third is to achieve excellence in U.S. science, math- GOAL AREAS ematics, engineering, and technology education at all 1. Science — foster a broad scientific program of levels. The NSF Government Performance and Results highest quality to address present and future Act (GPRA) 2001–2006 strategic plan integrates these needs of society goals under the umbrella vision for NSF: enabling the 2. Research facilities — develop and acquire state-of- na t i o n ’ s future through discovery, learning, and innova- the-art scientific research facilities for the tion. The strategies and goals of NCAR and UCAR are atmospheric and related scientific community fully consistent with those of NSF. 3. Education and training — devote significant attention to education and training, with emphasis on women and minorities 2. NSF Directorate for Geosciences 4. Advocacy, public policy, and communication — in Strategic Plan: Geosciences beyond 2000 cooperation with other institutions, play a strong role (GEO 2000) in developing enhanced and more effective methods of communication among scientists, policy makers, The NSF Directorate for Geosciences (GEO) has and the public in order to foster the use of science in completed a long-range plan that presents a vision of the service of humankind the cutting-edge issues for the geosciences during the 5. Technology transfer — in conjunction with the UCAR first decade of the 21st century. The focus of the GEO Foundation, transfer appropriate UCAR technology to plan is to develop a comprehensive view of the sci- the public and private sectors ences for planet Earth and the programs and activities 6. Research and operational partnerships — stren g t h e n that GEO should address during 2001 to 2010. The the relationship between operational and res e a r ch plan identifies key integrative scientific areas communities in the atmospheric and oceanic sciences (planetary structure, planetary ecology, and planetary ht t p : / / w w w. n c a r. u c a r. e d u / r e v i e w 0 1 metabolism) and develops a vision under the rubric of “Understanding and Predicting Earth’s Environment and Habitability.” The plan addresses the balance productive scientific and educational program that among science, education and outreach, enabling tech- serves NCAR’s various constituencies effe c t i v e l y . In nologies and facilities, and the organization and June of 2000 NCAR embarked on a comprehensive management strategies suited to achieving the vision. strategic planning process. Under the leadership of its NCAR’s new strategic plan, embedded within the first new director in a decade, the center began a 12- overall UCAR strategy (see box at right), is designed month process involving intensive discussion, debate, to support the GEO 2000 goals and objectives. seminars, workshops, and collaboration on new scientific and technological directions that would build on the fundamental disciplinary and interdisciplinary strengths of the institution. Development of this plan B. NCAR Strategic Plan involved NCAR and UCAR management, NCAR division directors, NCAR’s scientific and technical staff, 1. Strategic Planning Process the UCAR trustees, many university collaborators, and NSF officials. NCAR scientists and engineers led in Both long- and short-range strategic planning the definition of new research priorities. The approach activities are essential to ensure a healthy and taken was to work toward a shared vision of the future,

11 STRATEGIC PLANNING AND PRIORITY SETTING

NCAR Draft Strategic Plan, 2001 Trustees. The plan restates our commitments to disciplinary and interdisciplinary science; to fostering an VISION excellent staff that reflects diversity in people, back- With a world-cla s s , diverse workforce, NC AR is a grounds, ideas, and scientific approaches; and to renowned center for basic and applied research in the providing world-class facilities to the entire NSF geo- atmospheric and related sciences. With its superb fac i l i - sciences community. In addition, it lays out a broad ti e s , exp e r t i s e , and ability to integrate across disciplines, agenda to develop new capabilities and capacities, to o l s , and ideas, NC AR leads and supports the university embracing new partnerships and expanding the intel- community in developing critically needed understanding lectual envelope of our program through a constellation of the Earth system and the human relationship with that of new research initiatives. The plan will be finalized sy s t e m . Working with other institutions, public and pri- and presented to the UCAR members at their annual vate partners, and innovative information technology, meeting in October 2001. NC AR maintains a comprehensive environment for generating and disseminating knowledge for the geosciences. NCA R ’ s work serves to inform public decision making 2. Scientific Strategy with sound science—at local, re g i o n a l , and global levels—and supports rich, in q u i r y-based teaching and The overarching theme of the NCAR-wide strate- learning across the full educational spectrum. gic plan is “NCAR as an Integrator” — a center for the atmospheric and related sciences communities that VALUES brings together the ideas, the people, and the tools to We value creativity and excellence in science and all address scientific questions of critical importance to aspects of our work. so c i e t y . In addition to broadening the intellectual agen- We value activities that address societal needs. da for NCAR, the new plan stresses the pervasive themes of excellence in basic research, service to the We value our employees and strive to support diversity university community, educational innovation, knowl- of people, ideas, and backgrounds, to foster professional edge and technology transfer, and development and use development, and to recognize and celebrate accomplishment. of cutting-edge information technologies. We value activities that support and lead the geoscience The NCAR plan identifies specific next steps for community. research based on scientific and technological readi- We value activities that contribute to science education. ness, community commitment, and public need. NCAR We value innovation and renewal of our program in light and its university partners will maintain a diverse, bal- of new scientific and technological developments. anced portfolio of disciplinary and interdisciplinary projects, observational and computational initiatives, ht t p : / / w w w. n c a r. u c a r. e d u / r e v i e w 0 1 and research that advances fundamental knowledge and serves current societal needs. NCAR scientists and recognizing that strategic planning should be a sys- university collaborators developed a set of forward- temic, rather than a top-down, process. Both the looking scientific initiatives that are fully consistent UCAR-wide strategic plan for education and outreach with the GEO 2000 mandate and can be orga n i z e d and the strategy for high-performance simulation (see around six themes: page 14) are explicit and integral components of the 1. integrating interdisciplinary scientific initiatives new NCAR plan. 2. integrating models In late October 2000, the initial draft plan was dis- 3. advancing tools and methods cussed at a two-day retreat at NSF headquarters attended by all NCAR division directors and all NSF 4. proposed new facility initiatives program directors from the Division of At m o s p h e r i c 5. applying the benefits of the information technolo- Sciences, plus NSF officials from other directorates. In gy revolution across research and education June 2001, the draft plan (http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/ review01) was presented to the UCAR Board of 6. integrating research and education.

12 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

Further details concerning these initiatives are Division and the Environmental and Societal Impacts available within the draft plan and at the Web site Group). A second round of early-career scientist hires (http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/review01). is planned for FY 2002, and diversity will again be a significant consideration. NCAR contributes heavily to NCAR management is committed to the support of the Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research a flexible program that can adapt to scientific impera- and Science (SOARS) program, designed to increase tives without sacrificing long-term efforts to provide the number and retention rate of underrepresented intellectual infrastructure for the field. Our implemen- minorities entering graduate school (see p.38). As tation approach explicitly recognizes the need to described in the new strategic plan for education and preserve and augment core scientific capabilities. At outreach, NCAR and UCAR plan to expand the efforts the same time, we are working to allocate a greater to increase diversity through the full spectrum of portion of core funds to our opportunity fund, which UCAR’s K–12 through postgraduate activities. provides flexibility and seed funding for new ventures. Our commitment to balanced scientific demo- 3. Strategy for NCAR’s Scientific Personnel graphics is a part of our recognition that people are and Diverse Work Force our most important resource. NCAR is committed to sustained professional development for all staff. A Over the past decade, the number and fraction of Diversity Task Force has developed a set of recom- NCAR early-career scientists has decreased. For mendations concerning hiring strategies for all ranks at example, there were 30 Scientists I (entry level) at NCAR (ht t p : / / w w w. f i n . u c a r. e d u / h r / a d m i n n e t / NCAR in 1993 and only 9 in 2000. The number of PC P ro p o s a l 1 . h t m l ) and is extending its analysis to senior scientists increased from 41 to 55 over the same include a study of the workplace environment. We are period. We believe that a forward-looking personnel in the process of instituting a formal mentoring pro- strategy must include a conscious effort to ensure sus- gram for early-career scientists and plan to extend this tained demographic balance and diversity at NCAR. program to all junior ranks in due course. We have ini- As a consequence, we have initiated a multiyear pro- tiated a center-wide Early-Career Scientist Assembly gram to hire early-career scientists, with a view to (ECSA) that has already held a series of workshops on restoring the demographic balance while increasing the topics of mentoring, family friendliness, and pro- diversity of people, ideas, and backgrounds at NCAR. motion policies during the past year. The ECSA is In the fall of 2001, 11 new junior scientists were funded to invite high-profile speakers to NCAR. The appointed, after a rigorous international search coordi- early-career scientist hiring program is being comple- nated through the Advanced Study Program and the mented by a formal review of the function and status NCAR divisions. The new appointments are of uni- of the project scientist and associate scientist tracks at formly high caliber, and the new scientists have NCAR. Recommendations from this review will interests that dovetail well with the thrusts of the become available in late 2001. We have also recently new strategic plan. instituted a requirement that each NCAR staff member prepare an annual five-year plan for NCAR and UCAR have initiated a concerted and professional development. sustained effort to increase the diversity of the center’s scientific staff, though we recognize that more remains UCAR and NCAR management recognizes that to be done in this regard and that a long-term commit- ef fective internal communication is tremendously ment is required. Increasing diversity was an explicit important for staff morale and effi c i e n c y . Var i o u s goal of the recent early-career scientist hiring program. mechanisms for communication help NCAR staff stay Five of the 11 junior scientist hires are female, and one both informed and involved in institutional debates. is a Spanish male. In addition, two women scientists These include the NCAR Scientist Assembly (which were appointed senior scientists in the last year, and was asked, for example, to play a formal review role two female scientists served as interim division direc- for the developing strategic plan), the ECSA, regular tors during 2000–01 (in the Atmospheric Chemistry al l - s t a f f town meetings with the UCAR president and

13 STRATEGIC PLANNING AND PRIORITY SETTING

NCAR director, monthly brown-bag meetings of the System Modeling Framework using modern software UCAR president and NCAR director with the senior engineering principles to provide generic capabilities scientists, regular “all-hands” divisional meetings with for the whole geosciences community, enabling the the NCAR director and his senior staff, and routine interoperability of models and facilitating the inter- publication of the minutes of management meetings, to change of parameterizations and model components. supplement the various newsletters, e-mailings, and Other initiatives in data management, computing informal meetings. resources, metadata, and Web site development are all under way. During 2000, NCAR and UCAR invited a group of senior female physicists associated with the Am e r i c a n 5. Education and Outreach Strategy Physical Society (APS) to visit NCAR to review the climate for female scientists at the institution (see page A second important component of the NCAR strat- 68). The review led to a set of important and useful egy is described in the new UCAR-wide strategic plan recommendations with relevance to all staff. Some of for education and outreach. In July of 2000, UCAR the recommendations have already been implemented initiated a strategic planning process to develop a uni- by NCAR and UCAR management, while others are fied education and outreach plan for the institution as a under consideration or study. For example, the mentor- whole. After an extensive series of internal and external ing and professional development initiatives, an effo r t meetings to gather ideas and review materials, the to communicate UCAR’s promotional policies better UCAR Board of Trustees approved the plan in June and more consistently across divisions, and the initia- 2001. The plan (http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/review01) tion of the ECSA are in direct response to the AP S identifies four goals and outlines a series of objectives committee, while a recommendation concerning access that speak to its broad-spectrum approach, from pre- to day care is currently under feasibility study. school through life-long learning. See page 38, below, for more details of the plan. Through these and other efforts, NCAR and UCAR management works to increase the human capital at the ce n t e r , communicate policy and institutional decisions, and involve staff in setting strategic directions. C. Reporting and Priority Setting

4. Information Technology Strategy The process of strategic planning is carried out An important component of the overall NCAR through close consultation among NCAR and UCAR strategy is the Strategic Plan for High-Performance management, NCAR staff, NSF, the UCAR governance Simulation: Tow a r d a Robust, Agile, and Compre - bodies, and university colleagues. In setting priorities, hensive Information Infrastruc t u r e for the Geosciences NCAR seeks community input and involvement. Each (http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/review01). The major NCAR division has an external advisory committee, themes in the high-performance simulation plan are: while the facility divisions (the At m o s p h e r i c (1) computing resources; (2) software tools, frame- Technology Division and the Scientific Computing works, and algorithms; (3) data management, metadata, Division) have external university-based allocation post-processing, and visualization; (4) project orga n i z a - committees that oversee and apportion resources. Non- tion and management; (5) the computing profession at NSF proposals from NCAR over $50,000 are internally NCAR; and (6) collaborating in a distributed environ- reviewed by the originating division, by the NCAR ment. This plan has led to significant new activities at di r e c t o r ’s office, and finally by the UCAR University NCAR, including an effort to build a community-wide Relations Committee to ensure that they support the common infrastructure for Earth system models. Th i s university community appropriately. NASA-sponsored collaborative effort is being led by NCAR and involves most, if not all, of the top climate The process of interacting with and reporting to and weather modeling groups in the country. The cen- NSF involves many steps, and Table 1 indicates the tral purpose of this new project is to build an Earth major activities and their frequency.

14 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

Table 1. Calendar of management, planning, budgeting, and reporting activities for FY 2000

15 STRATEGIC PLANNING AND PRIORITY SETTING

1. Annual NCAR Program Plan cant issues and opportunities affecting NCAR and its relationship with the community. Examples include the Each year NCAR divisions examine all aspects of supercomputing upgrade path, the new aircraft acquisi- their programs as the first step toward developing the tion, mentoring programs, new scientific hires, and the NCAR program plan. The NCAR Directors Com- IT and education and outreach strategies. The commit- mittee has responsibility for determining the final tee meets monthly and is a key executive group for content of the plan, to adjust it both within a given year NCAR. It conducts a planning retreat for three days and from year to year as required. Each year NCAR each year to evaluate the health and vitality of NCAR’s develops a preliminary program plan for review by programs and to develop recommendations for new NSF before the final plan is assembled. The final plan directions. It also meets with NSF program officers for is also presented to the UCAR trustees for their review. a two-day annual NSF-NCAR retreat, normally held in Washington, D.C. The program plan describes high-priority elements of NCAR’s program and differences from prior years. New initiatives are described in detail, and their scientific objectives and costs are spelled out. The most recent program plan can be reviewed at http://www. ncar.ucar.edu/review01.

2. Budget Reviews

A new internal budget review process was introduced in 2000. This process involves four elements: the development of a budget narrative, the exposition of the divisional budget in a common template, an extended budget review meeting of the division director and administrator with the NCAR director and senior staff, and a culminating summary status memo from the director to the division. The budget narrative outlines the sources and uses of divisional funds, including both NSF and non-NSF resources. The narrative enables the division to articulate special needs, problems, and opportunities that have budgetary consequences. It also explicitly links the funded programs to the stated goals and objectives of divisional, center-wide, and agency strategic plans. The purpose of the common budget template is to enable NCAR management to compare and contrast budget allocations across the center on a common footing and to provide metrics of budget allocation trends (e.g., to compare and contrast divisional funding approaches for senior and junior staff).

3. NCAR Directors Committee

An important body for priority setting at NCAR is the NCAR Directors Committee. Chaired by the NCAR director, this committee is made up of all NCAR division directors plus NCAR and UCAR senior management. It reviews and discusses all signifi-

16 IV. PROGRAM PERFORMANCE

n 1997, NCAR and UCAR outlined an ambitious A. Fundamental Research agenda for the center in NCAR and UCAR at the I Millennium: A Vision for Science, Facilities, Se r vice, and Leadership (http://www.ucar.edu/ NCAR was founded on the recognition of “the communications/millennium). This proposal presented need to mount an attack on the fundamental atmospher- long-range plans in six broad areas: fundamental ic problems on a scale commensurate with their global research, understanding and predicting the Earth sys- nature and importance” (from “Blue Book,” see page tem, advanced scientific facilities, human dimensions 5). Fundamental research provides the foundation for and societal impacts, education and training, and appli- understanding the physical, dynamical, chemical, and cations and technology/information transfer. Over the biological mechanisms that govern Earth system past four years, NCAR has made significant progress in processes. NCAR’s program in fundamental research each of these areas. In 2000, for example, NCAR pub- is broad and sufficiently flexible to respond to research lished over 450 peer-reviewed articles, almost opportunities and to enable new discoveries. Past two-thirds of which had external co-authors. activities include, among others, studies of the physics of precipitation formation, research into identifying and Complete descriptions of the activities and results modeling the internal and external mechanisms that achieved by NCAR’s divisions and programs can be cause the climate system to vary, laboratory studies of found in the Annual Scientific Reports provided to basic chemical and photochemical processes, and NSF (http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/review01). investigations into the structure and behavior of the solar magnetic field. Below, we highlight three accom- In this section we provide a brief discussion of plishments that illuminate discoveries arising from our the scope of each area within the center’s ongoing basic research. program and highlight some of the most significant accomplishments. 1. Extra-Solar Planet Discoveries

The potential for understanding Earth’s place in the Figure 4. Number of peer-reviewed publications by NCAR universe has vastly expanded in the past five years authors, 1997-2000 through the discovery of numerous planets revolving around other stars. Scientists from NCAR’s High Altitude Observatory (HAO), led by Timothy Brown, have been central to these efforts. With collaborators, Brown has participated in two major discoveries.

In the first, he and associates at the Harvard- Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, San Francisco State University, and the Anglo-Australian Tel e s c o p e found the first evidence ever of multiple planets revolving around a single star, Upsilon An d r o m e d a e . By combining HAO data with that of Geoffrey Marcy (then at San Francisco State), the group detected three separate Jupiter-sized planets. The technique involved radial velocity measurements using a spectrograph that looks at the speed of motion of a star along a line of sight (toward or away from the viewer). Aplanet the

17 PROGRAM PERFORMANCE

Figure 5. The transit of the extra-solar planet was determined 2. North Atlantic Oscillation by precise observation of the stellar brightness as a function of time. El Niño may have become a household word, but it is only one of a number of important ocean-atmosphere oscillations that affect weather and climate globally. Work by NCAR climatologists is proving the significance of a lesser-researched phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In recent years, the work of James Hurrell and Clara Deser (NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Division) has been particularly influential, spurring interest in this topic and inspiring major national and international research programs.

Figure 6. These data provide the strongest evidence to date that North Atlantic climate change since 1950 is directly linked to a progressive warming of tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) . Tropical ocean changes alter the pattern and magnitude of tropi- size of Jupiter or bigger exerts considerable gravita- cal rainfall and atmospheric heating, the atmospheric response to which includes the spatial structure of the North Atlantic tional force on its star, creating a wobble that occurs Oscillation (NAO). The slow, tropical ocean warming has thus because the orbiting planet tugs the star out of its path. forced a commensurate trend toward one extreme phase of the NA O during the last half century. The linear trend of the winter In the second discovery, Brown and graduate stu- season (December–February) 500 mb height field based on obser- dent David Charbonneau (Harvard University), together vations (top panel), a 12-member ensemble with observed global with colleagues at the Smithsonian Center and the SST forcing (bottom left), and a 12-member Community Climate Geneva Observatory, observed the first recorded transit Model 3 (CCM3) ensemble with observed tropical SST forcing of an extra-solar planet across its parent star. This time, (bottom right) over 1950–1999. The model results have been the technique they used was to look for variations in multiplied by a factor of two. Height increases (decreases) are light emanating from the star. When a large planet indicated by blue (red), and the contour increment is 20 m per crosses the face of a Sun-like star in a direction 50 years. observable from Earth, it dims the light we receive from the star by about 1%. They analyzed photo- Observed metric data taken for a period of several weeks with a small, relatively low-cost telescope and were able to detect two complete consecutive transits. This work, published in the As t r ophysical Journal, has had a profound impact on astronomical research, an especially remarkable feat given that the data came from such a modest telescope. Global Ocean Tropical Ocean Forcing Forcing Su b s e q u e n t l y , Brown and colleagues have improved substantially on the precision of the transit light curve by observing it with the Hubble Space Telescope. With this precision, they have demonstrated the feasibility of inferring properties of the atmosphere of the planet.

18 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

Hurrell’s work has linked changes in the North emphasis on geophysical turbulence named the Atlantic atmospheric circulation to rainfall and tem- Geophysical Turbulence Program (GTP). perature changes over much of the Northern Hemisphere. The NAO is a north-south oscillation in The year 2000 was a year of transition for GTP atmospheric mass, with centers of action near the and of new focus. A new lead scientist, Annick semipermanent Icelandic low and Azores high. When Pouquet, was appointed as an NCAR senior scientist the NAO is in a positive phase, as it has been for most after an international search. Pouquet’s research has of the past 20 years, pressures are higher than normal emphasized the fundamental nature of turbulent flow, across the North Atlantic south of 55°N and lower especially in magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbu- than normal across the Arctic. The resulting anom- lence. She employs high-resolution numerical alous westerly flow brings unusual maritime warmth simulations, mathematical analyses, and statistical the- to Eurasia and parts of North America during the win- ory to explore both compressible and incompressible ter while colder-than-normal conditions prevail over flows. Her papers have contributed to our understand- the northwest Atlantic. ing of stochastic processes in atomic systems, two-dimensional turbulence, and the nonlinear MHD Using a data set that goes back to the mid-19th dynamo. A central focus of her recent research has ce n t u r y , Hurrell showed that variations of the NAO been the development of direct numerical simulation explain nearly one-third of wintertime surface tempera- code and the use of that code to explore topics in ture variance averaged over the Northern Hemisphere MHD turbulence. She came to NCAR from the and nearly all of the observed local wintertime cooling Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur (formerly in the northwest Atlantic as well as the warming across Observatoire de Nice), where she was director Eurasia since the mid-1970s. of the Cassini Laboratory.

Changes in the mean circulation patterns over the Residing in the Advanced Study Program, GTP North Atlantic are also accompanied by pronounced currently includes 36 NCAR scientists from almost shifts in storm tracks and associated synoptic eddies, every division engaged in both formal and informal which affect the transport and convergence of atmos- collaborations on a wide range of research topics. pheric moisture. During a positive NAO phase, These scientific problems have been identified through Southern Europe and Greenland are dry and workshops, individual choices, and occasional large Scandinavia and northern Europe are wet, a finding collaborations with university and other colleagues; that agrees with long-term rainfall records. they are aimed at optimizing GTP’s contribution to our improved understanding of the atmosphere, the oceans, Recent work, done jointly with Martin Hoerling of and the Sun. NO A A and published in Sc i e n c e , has further shown that warming of the tropical oceans has forced the One recent result from an interdisciplinary GTP commensurate trend toward the positive phase of the project deals with the interactions of atmospheric NAO over the last half century, thereby linking NAO chemistry and turbulence in urban settings. Street behavior with global warming. canyons in cities are usually poorly ventilated, so that pollutant gases emitted from traffic, such as carbon 3. Geophysical Turbulence Program monoxide and nitrogen oxides, are trapped in the lower portion of the street. An experiment using a large - e d d y Research on turbulence has been a significant part simulation (LES) was performed to examine scalar dis- of the NCAR scientific program since the early 1960s. persion inside these urban features. Researchers The original scientific leaders of NCAR recognized estimated the street-level air quality by determining the that in order to understand the dynamics of the atmo- pollution ventilation rate from the street. The LES sphere, the oceans, and the Sun, understanding relevant domain was configured to include a square cavity turbulent processes would be essential. From these topped by a free shear layer. A crosswise flow was beginnings has come a sustained, cross-divisional imposed on the free shear layer, while a scalar pollutant

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was injected at the surface along the span-wise center- 1. Community Climate System Model line of the canyon. At a Reynolds number of approximately 12,000, the scalar pollutant was trans- For many years, NCAR has developed and made ported toward the leeward wall and upward to the free available community models to benefit weather, cli- shear layer . Results show that 97% of the scalar was mate, chemistry, and solar researchers. retained in the street canyon when the emissions source was at the centerline or at approximately one-third the This tradition began 20 years ago, when the climate distance from the canyon wall. This is an idealized division at NCAR decided to develop an atmospheric simulation that does not represent other dispersion model that would be accessible to the university com- mechanisms that may be at work in the real world. munity for climate research. The first version of this Ho w e v e r , it illuminates some of the interactions Community Climate Model (CCM0) was released in between emissions and urban topography that could 1983 and was used to produce perpetual July and/or have important human health implications. January simulations for roughly 1,200 days of simulation. The model also specified land-surface properties and sea-ice conditions. In 1987 the CCM1 was released. This model could be run with prescribed seasonally varying sea-surface temperatures but still lacked the B. Understanding and Predicting capability for interactive land or sea-ice conditions. the Earth System With the release of CCM2 in 1993, the model was able to deliver a more sophisticated treatment of land-surface processes and included a number of other improvements Beyond the fundamental, disciplinary research on to physical processes. The CCM3, released in 1996, the individual components of the Earth system, Earth contained significant changes in virtually all physical system science addresses the physical interactions parameterizations. The model included not only an among these components. NCAR’s research into interactive land model but also a slab ocean and ther- understanding and predicting the Earth system as a modynamic model for ocean and sea ice. whole has a long history. It encompasses studies on prediction of the weather from small to global scales By the mid-90s, NCAR had committed itself to the and from the short term to the limits of predictability; development of a comprehensive, fully coupled com- the development of climate system models that incor- munity climate model with four fundamental physical porate the components of the Earth system; and components: atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice. scenario and ensemble runs of the coupled models to These components would be linked through a sophisti- assess impacts of weather, climate, and global change. cated coupling module. In 1998 the Community Understanding and predicting monthly and seasonal Climate System Model (CCSM1) was released to the means and extreme events, and separating the influence co m m u n i t y . This was the first fully coupled model that of natural processes from anthropogenic forcing in the could produce a stable climate simulation without arti- climate system, have important implications for policy ficial flux corrections and was a landmark in the and decision makers across our society. NCAR partici- science of climate modeling. Since the release of pates in two large national initiatives concerned with CCSM1, additional work has begun to include biogeo- extending our basic knowledge and ability to predict chemical processes, more realistic tropical variability, the Earth system, the U.S. Global Change Research and atmospheric aerosols. The release of the next ver- Program and the U.S. Weather Research Program. sion of the Community Climate System Model, CCSM2, will occur in 2001 (http://www.ccsm.ucar. The following highlights illustrate several major edu/). modeling and observational programs that contribute to the development of enhanced understanding of the Simulations of the 20th and 21st Century Climate Earth system. Observed variations in globally averaged surface- air temperature are due to three factors: internal natural

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variability of the climate system, external natural forc- Figure 7. NCAR model calculations match the observed climate ing factors such as solar variability and volcanically of the 20th century reasonably well once the effects of volca- produced aerosols, and anthropogenic forcing factors noes, aerosols, ozone, and anthropogenic greenhouse gas such as greenhouse gases and industrially produced forcings are included. aerosols. Comparison of climate model simulations against recorded observations remains the most important method of establishing models as credible tools for climate prediction.

The CCSM Chemistry and Climate Change Working Group carried out a series of simulations for the climates of the 20th and 21st centuries that verified the ability of the model to match the observed record. Following the 20th century simulations, a series of predictive runs were carried out as part of the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change’s Th i r d Assessment Report.

These simulations used a realistic, time-varying chemical composition of the atmosphere with gas concentrations based on observations of greenhouse gases, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes, and sulfate aerosol distributions. Also included were solar variability and formation of stratospheric water vapor.

Forcing a climate model with both natural and similar to the business-as-usual scenario. Runs for the anthropogenic factors indicates the degree to which 21st century indicate significant warming due to human observed climate change is due to natural or human activity with the simulation that assumes stabilization influence. Results of the simulations (Fig. 7) indicated of carbon dioxide emissions showing less warming that the significant warming observed near the end of toward the end of the 21st century. the 20th century could only be explained by increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The warming in the 2. The Versatile MM5 middle of the 20th century was shown to be the result of forcing due to solar variability and an absence of Since the 1970s, mesoscale researchers have volcanic eruptions during this time. refined and improved a model that was first developed at Pennsylvania State University. This mesoscale For the five 21st century simulations, a fully inter- model, now in its fifth generation and called the NCAR/ active sulfur chemistry model was added to the CCSM. Penn. State MM5, has become broadly used for weath- This allowed for the response of the sulfur cycle to er research, forecasting, and even regional climate changes in the hydrologic cycle to be incorporated. Th e studies. Two recent accomplishments are of particular first simulation assumed a business-as-usual increase in no t e . carbon dioxide concentrations. Increases in other greenhouse gases were based on estimates of industrial Hurricane Formation growth in the future. Sulfur emissions were scaled for expected increases due to industrial activity as well as The single most damaging weather phenomenon is expected decreases due to air quality regulations. Th e the tropical cyclone. Using the MM5, researchers from second simulation assumed that emission of carbon NC A R ’ s Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology dioxide would reach its peak and stabilize just after Division (MMM) are studying the processes that led to 2100. The remaining three simulations were quite the development of Hurricane Diana, which struck the

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Figure 8. Simulated rainfall patterns for Hurricane Diana Forecasting the Surprise Storm of January 2000 calculated at high resolution by the MM5. No artificial vorticity was needed to spawn the hurricane within the model, a On 24–25 January 2000, an unexpectedly intense significant achievement. winter storm caused by an explosive cyclogenesis off the southeastern coast of the United States brought heavy snowfalls from the Carolinas, through the Washington, D.C., area, and into New England, with at least five deaths reported. Record snows fell across North Carolina, with the Raleigh-Durham area reporting a snowfall total over 20 inches, breaking not only the record for a single storm but also the highest total in one month.

The intensity and position of the storm were ill han- dled by the operational models, posing a challenge for forecasters in the affected region. Short-range models tracked the storm and precipitation too far east. MMM scientists Fuqing Zhang, Chris Snyder, and Richard Rotunno used the MM5 to investigate the predictability of the snowstorm. The triple-nested MM5 initialized from 00Z 24 January 2000 with the highest grid resolution of 3.3 km simulated well the explosive coastal cyclogenesis in terms of the cyclone strength and loca- coast of North Carolina in 1984. They simulated the tion as well as the heavy onshore precipitation band. transformation of Diana from a weak baroclinic distur- The success of the high-resolution control simulation bance into a hurricane. The study suggests a series of shows that the storm could have been well forecast with events that may be common to many cases where conventional data in real time. cyclones form in the northern Caribbean. A pr e c u r s o r disturbance in the upper troposphere causes air to Various sensitivity experiments suggest that the ascend over a weak stationary front. Numerous poten- di f ficulty of the real-time operational numerical fore- tial vorticity anomalies form beneath the strong latent cast came from insufficient model grid resolution, heating. Through essentially random fluctuations, one errors in the model initial state (some of which becomes dominant, other anomalies merge with it, and occurred as a result of missing radiosonde data), and a nearly symmetrical vortex with a warm core results. the strong nonlinearity inherent in the dynamic system. The disturbance is strong enough to intensify further Other factors, particularly the physical parameteriza- through air-sea interactions, ultimately achieving hurri- tion, may also have contributed to the operational cane strength. forecast failure.

Figure 9. Accumulated precipitation (mm of liquid water) for the surprise storm of 24 – 25 January 2000. Left: MM5 forecast; center: observations; right: operational ETA model.

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3. Weather Research and Forecast Model grid and supercell evolution in a homogeneous environment with a 1-km grid. Real-time experimental The WRF model is a next-generation mesoscale forecasts are also being conducted daily, with forecast forecast model and assimilation system that will products posted on the Web (http://www.wrf-model. advance both the understanding and prediction of org).These simulations and others previously conduct- important mesoscale precipitation systems. WRF is ed provide benchmarks for the WRF prototype that expected to set a new standard for the integration of compare favorably with published solutions from other research and operational forecast models and promote models and demonstrate its robustness and accuracy. closer ties between the research and operational forecasting communities. 4. Coronal Mass Ejections

Principal participants are NCAR’s Mesoscale and The discovery of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in Microscale Meteorology Division, the NOAA Na t i o n a l the 1970s demonstrated that the Sun’s corona ejects Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the mass and magnetic flux in daily episodes of large - s c a l e NO A A Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL), the reconfigurations. CMEs cause major geomagnetic University of Oklahoma Center for the Analysis and storms when they impact the Earth’s magnetosphere. Prediction of Storms, the U.S. Air Force Wea t h e r Combined measurements from the High Al t i t u d e Ag e n c y , and the Federal Aviation Administration. Th e Observatory (HAO) Advanced Coronal Observing Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, the National System (ACOS), the Solar and Heliospheric Severe Storms Laboratory, the Atmospheric Sciences Observatory (SOHO), Transition Region and Corona Division of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, the Explorer (TRACE), and the Yoh-Koh soft x-ray instru- U.S. Naval Research Laboratory Marine Meteorology ments significantly extend our CME phenomenology Division, the EPAAtmospheric Modeling Division, and beyond what can be seen by white-light observations a large number of university researchers are also con- alone. Signatures of CMEs launched from the solar tributing. The project is organized under a WR F oversight board, a coordinator, and a science board. Figure 10. Coronal mass ejections such as this are often pre- Five development teams are further divided into a ceded by characteristic dimming regions. number of working groups.

The model incorporates advanced numerics and data assimilation techniques, a multiple relocatable nesting capability, and improved physics, particularly for treatment of convection and mesoscale precipitation. It also incorporates a new software framework that provides a modular, flexible, single-source code for use across diverse computing architectures. It is intended for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with priority emphasis on horizontal grids of 1–10 kilometers. Th e prototype is being supported as a community model. Based on its merits, it will be a candidate to replace existing forecast models such as the MM5, the ETA model at NCEP, and the Rapid Update Cycle system at FSL.

A variety of test cases covering a broad range of scales have been performed with this first prototype, including simulations of synoptic-scale baroclinic waves in a periodic channel with a 100-km horizontal

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disk show characteristic dimming structures forming in 5. Measurements of Pollution in the the low corona over the disk that indicate a departure Tropospher e directed at the Earth. These events are not readily observed in white light. Their on-disk signatures in the A new Earth-orbiting monitor is providing the most short wavelength are thus of considerable interest as complete view assembled to date of the world’s air indicators of an Earth-bound ejection. Observations pollution as it travels through the atmosphere, crossing show an intriguing relationship among CMEs, flares, continents and oceans. Measurements of Pollution in prominences, and the large-scale evolution of the corona. the Troposphere (MOPITT) provides the first long-term observations of the global tropospheric carbon monox- HAO scientists Sarah Gibson and Boon Chye Low ide distribution with vertical resolution. It is also used their three-dimensional, time-dependent, analytical expected to obtain the first global measurements of the magnetohydrodynamic model of CMEs to simulate vertical column of methane. Policy makers and scien- these characteristic dimming structures. The model sup- tists now, for the first time, have a way to identify the ports the theory that CMEs are associated with a rope of major sources of these pollutants and to closely track twisted magnetic fields that prior to eruption supports where they travel year round and anywhere on Earth. the associated quiescent prominence. These developments build upon the CME phenomenology laid down Launched in December 1999, MOPITT uses a by NCAR scientist emeritus Art Hundhausen. downward-looking infrared correlation radiometer

Figure 11. MOPITT measurements of tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) illustrate the effects of fossil fuel combustion and global- scale transport in the Pacific region. Shown in this global map from April 2000 are concentrations of CO, with red colors indicating the highest levels (over 400 parts per billion by volume) and blue colors indicating the lowest levels (less than 50 ppbv).

24 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE mounted on NASA’s Terra spacecraft, which circles C. Advanced Scientific Facilities the Earth from pole to pole 16 times daily. Terra is the first of the major Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms. James Drummond and colleagues at the The provision of facilities beyond the scope of University of Toronto developed the instrument. John individual universities was cited in the “Blue Book” as Gille and others in NCAR’s Atmospheric Chemistry one of the primary rationales for establishing NCAR. Division developed the software to retrieve and ana- Tod a y , through the support of NSF, NCAR provides a lyze the data. Scientists in ACD are blending the new host of tools and platforms for observing, computing, data with output from the chemical transport Model data access and storage, and scientific visualization. for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART) These facilities are allocated and deployed in consulta- to develop the first global maps of long-term lower- tion with the sponsors and the community of users atmosphere pollution. sometimes with years of lead-time required.

The first set of MOPITT global observations, from In the current interdisciplinary, global, Internet- March to December 2000, captured extensive air pollu- connected environment, state-of-the-art facilities are tion generated by forest fires in the western United necessary for state-of-the-art science. NCAR has made States in the summer of 2000. Emissions from the tremendous strides in harnessing and integrating the burning of fossil fuels can be seen wafting across benefits of the information technology revolution. We much of the hemisphere. are well along in planning for acquisition of the next- generation aircraft and the next generation of super- The most dramatic features, however, are the computers. We have invested in Web technologies to immense clouds of carbon monoxide from forest and improve community access to data and models, provide grassland fires in Africa and South America. Th e educational materials for teachers and students, and plumes travel rapidly across the hemisphere as far as enhance management and administrative efficiency and Australia during the dry season. ACD researchers were ef fectiveness. All of these activities have been under- surprised to find a strong source of carbon monoxide in taken with our community of users in mind, to provide Southeast Asia during April and May 2000 (Figure 11) . them with improved access, service, and support. The new maps show air pollution plumes from this region traveling over the Pacific Ocean to North 1. Observing Facilities and Field Program America, often at fairly high concentrations. While fires Suppor t are the major contributor, the researchers suspect that at times industrial sources may also contribute to these NC A R ’ s Atmospheric Technology Division devel- events. Although MOPITT cannot distinguish between ops and provides a suite of instruments, observing individual industrial sources in the same city, it can map systems, and platforms for measuring the atmosphere. di f ferent sources that cover a few hundred square miles. These systems are made available to the community The results are accurate enough to differentiate air pol- through field programs in which ATD ’ s contributions lution originating in a large metropolitan area, for can range from a brief, in-situ placement of a single example, from a major fire in a national forest. sensor to suites of instruments carried on aircraft to sample large portions of the globe’s atmosphere. MO P I T T information will help researchers improve their understanding of the linkages between GPS Dropsonde air pollution and global environmental change, and could potentially play a pivotal role in the development The NCAR GPS dropsonde system, also known as of international environmental policy. AVAPS (Airborne Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System), has dramatically extended the range of atmospheric profiling capabilities. Since its debut in 1996, it has flown on numerous missions in support of operational weather forecasting and atmospheric

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Figure 12. Locations of recent field programs supported by ATD

Figure 13. The NCAR GPS dropsonde is used thousands of times research, with impressive results. Ten AVAPS have each hurricane season to improve landfall predictions. been used by the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (a.k.a. Hurricane Hunters) at Keesler Ai r Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi. During a typical hurricane season, the 53rd deploys 1,000 to 1,500 sondes on training and storm missions.

NO A A has used these systems since 1996 on its P-3 and G-IV aircraft in numerous research programs as well as for operational forecasting of tropical and winter storms. James Franklin (NOAA Na t i o n a l Hurricane Center) recently received the National Weather Service’s highest honor for “improving hurricane forecasting through the innovative application of Global Positioning System technology” using data from NCAR GPS dropsondes. Franklin played a large role in understanding data uncertainties in the early GPS dropsonde and continues as a strong member of NC A R ’ s dropsonde user group.

The impact of the GPS dropsonde on hurricane track forecasts was graphically illustrated by its use during Hurricane Debby in August of 2000 (see Fig. 14). Inclusion of dropsonde data, gathered around the storm, improved the track predictions significantly. Separate control tests run for several models demonstrated that the track changes for these models derived

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ATD Deployments

ATD manages and operates the majority of the NSF Lowe r Atmospheric Observing Facilities. These systems include aircra f t , rad a r s , li d a r s , d r o p w i n d s o n d e s ,i n t e grated sounding sy s t e m s , wind profilers, et c . The division makes them avai l - able to res e a r chers from universities and other agencies for a broad range of res e a r ch programs. The Observing Facilities Ad v i s o r y Panel, rep r esenting the broad university-based co m m u n i t y , reviews all requests and approves individual de p l o yments as appropriate during their biannual meetings. An updated list of planned deployments can be found at ht t p : / / w w w. a t d . u c a r .edu/projects.html.

A ground-based S-band polarimetric weather radar that combines highest quality measurements with portability on the Washington coast during the Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization Through Observational Verification field campaign, December 2000.

ATD wind profiler on the Japanese vessel R/V Mirai and ATD automated balloon launcher on a Canadian ice breaker

ATD systems being loaded on the NOAA ship Discoverer

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Figure 14a. Track of Hurricane Debby (black line with daily Figure 14b. Predicted tracks for Hurricane Debby after use of positions marked) and predicted tracks using different models NCAR GPS dropsonde system. Actual track is shown in the prior to use of GPS dropsonde system. The observed track black line with daily positions noted. Predicted paths are shows position out to 36 h; model tracks to 60 hours. greatly improved. entirely from the inclusion of regional wind and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, called Tro p o s p h e r i c thermodynamic data produced by the dropsondes. Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox, or TOP S E . These sondes represent a tremendous step toward more The observed spring maximum of tropospheric ozone is accurate prediction of hurricane tracks and landfalls. thought to have both chemical and dynamic origins. It has been attributed to incursion of ozone from the strato- NCAR has begun development of an autonomous sphere into the troposphere, but tropospheric photo- dropsonde and aircraft data system that can be used in chemical processes may also contribute to this ozone high-altitude aircraft or unmanned space vehicles. Al s o , “bloom.” Measurements of key species taken from ATD is leading a collaborative NCAR/university effo r t aboard the NSF/NCAR C-130 were combined with to define next-generation observing systems. ground-based, balloon-borne, and other aircraft investigations to study key scientific questions relating to the Tropospheric Ozone Production about the budget of ozone, the distribution of radical species, Spring Equinox sources and partitioning of nitrogen compounds, and composition of volatile organic carbon species. One of the major research emphases in the Atmospheric Chemistry Division (ACD) has been the The campaign was particularly challenging for the study of the photochemical and dynamic processes that C-130 and its crew. To capture the whole cycle from determine the rates of formation and loss of oxidants dark to light—even in the farthest north—the aircraft throughout the atmosphere. Oxidation processes act on made seven biweekly runs from Jefferson County the large variety of trace gases emitted from natural Airport near Boulder, at 40°N latitude, to Churchill, and anthropogenic sources. Since these processes affe c t Manitoba, and usually on to Thule, Greenland. On each the distribution and trends of radiatively important deployment, the plane continued north as far as possi- trace gases in the atmosphere, there is a potential feed- ble to record the winter-to-spring transition. When the back between chemistry and climate that has base was Thule, the plane flew as far as 85°N. On each implications for future global change. trip, the C-130 also zigzagged up and down from the lower stratosphere to the boundary layer, sampling air In spring 2000, ACD mounted a major field pro- at every level. In February, the plane was grounded in gram to study the springtime peak in ozone in the Churchill by a blizzard with winds up to 60 miles per

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hour and temperatures down to –30°C (–22°F). Wit h were made to investigate this dramatic depletion over no airplane hangar, these conditions meant that staff la r ge regions of the Arctic surface, demonstrating the had to run heaters inside the cabin to protect the flexibility and adaptability of ATD platforms. instruments—and take turns staying up all night to tend the heaters. 2. High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental During TOPSE, large-scale changes in lower- Research tropospheric ozone and aerosols in the Arctic were observed for the first time over the entire winter-s p r i n g NCAR is leading the acquisition of a High- transition. There were several significant findings Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for made by the TOPSE program concerning the ozone Environmental Research on behalf of the community. distribution: ozone plumes in the midtroposphere pro- HIAPER represents one of the most significant duced by photochemical processes, contributing to a upgrades to NSF’s geoscientific observational capabili- broad-scale increase in ozone; stratospheric intrusions ty for the next decade and is the largest single of high concentrations of ozone; and extensive areas in procurement in NCAR’s history. The HIAPER initia- the boundary layer where ozone was depleted almost tive evolves from NCAR’s decade-long leadership of a en t i r e l y . As the experiment went on, additional effo r t s well-documented planning process involving the

The INDOEX Project: Greenhouse Warming or Aerosol Cooling?

Regional consequences of global war ming depend critically on the potentially large cooling effect of p o l l u t a n t s ,k n own as aerosols. The Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) was undertaken to collect data on aerosols where pristine air masses from the south- er n Indian Ocean meet not-so-clean air from the Indian subcontinent. The co-chief scientists for INDOEX were V. Ramanathan (Scripps Institution of Oceanograp hy ) and Paul Crutzen (Max-Planck Institut für Chemie and a 1995 Nobel laureate in che m i s t ry ) . Ramanathan and Crutzen wor k ed closely with ATD and UOP's Joint Office of Science Support (JOSS) to make the INDOEX field campaign a success. The project was based out of the Ma l d i v e s , a chain of small islands in the middle of the Indian Ocean, and involved multiple ai rc ra f t , sh i p s , and island stations. ATD provided NSF/NCAR’s C-130 aircr aft for the project, while JOSS provided project planning, lo g i s t i c s , and data management support.

Investigators found the atmosphere over the Indian Ocean both dirtier and more complex than they expected. A thick layer of very polluted air, extending more than 600 miles offshore from the Indian subcontinent, covered the ocean almost constantly during the six-week observing period. The C-130 recorded aerosol optical depths as high as 0.7 — equivalent to a bad day in downtown Los Angeles. Visibility was often under seven miles. Aerosols of soot, sulfates, nitrates,organic particles, fly ash, and mineral dust made up the haze, which was accompanied by the gases carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide, conclusive evidence that the haze layer is caused by pollution. Away from the haze over the Southern Hemisphere, the C-130 sampled almost completely clean air, with an aerosol optical depth of 0.1.

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community and NSF. More than two years of community surveys and workshops, proposals, and management plans culminated in negotiations, now under way, to acquire a Gulfstream G-V aircraft. Th e new aircraft will provide a combination of altitude, range, endurance, and payload unavailable in any current aircraft of the national research fleet. It will carry a new generation of instruments and sensors, meet all the avionics and regulatory requirements of the next decade, and provide the most advanced air-t o - g r o u n d communication capabilities ever flown on a research aircraft. It will represent one of NCAR’s and NSF’s most prominent capabilities. Figure 15. NCAR recently signed a letter of intent with the Gulfstream Corporation, initiating the negotiations to acquire Funding of approximately $80 million will be a Gulfstream V aircraft for use by the NSF-supported research required to bring HIAPER to completion. Of this, $21 community. million has been provided from the NSF Major Research Equipment account and is being carried for- Management has agreed with all of the findings and ward until the remaining funds are provided. In the recommendations of the panel and is in the process of meantime, a procurement has begun. In the spring of implementing them in order to ensure that the project 2001, the NCAR director appointed a special independ- will be well managed and completed within budget and ent HIAPER review panel to provide a thorough and on schedule. objective review of the process to date and to advise on the adequacy of plans for the acquisition, modification, 3. Computing Facilities and instrumentation of the aircraft. The panel of experts endorsed the overall program and provided NC A R ’ s Scientific Computing Division (SCD) has valuable advice on how NCAR could most effe c t i v e l y a 40-year history of supporting the atmospheric science proceed, given the funding and scheduling constraints. community with high-end machines, software, mass

NSF/NCAR C-130

NCAR operates the NSF EC130-Q Hercules aircr aft for the atmospheric sciences community. This aircr aft carries elabo- rate instrumentation and data systems and is used extensively in field res e a r ch programs across the globe. Upon ret u r ning from the TOPSE project, the C-130 underwent a complete multimillion-dollar wing inspection and ref u r b i s h - ment before being deployed to Japan, wh e r e it participated in the ACE-Asia che m i s t r y res e a r ch program. The C-130’s large capacity allows more than a dozen NCAR and university investigators to fly their instruments simultaneously. This effi- ci e n c y of operation is also a major enhancement of the scientific product, since all measurements can be integrat e d in time and space. The C-130 continues to be the wor k h o r s e of the U.S . res e a r ch fleet, particularly with the recent ret i r e- NSF/NCAR C-130 performing as part of the ACE-Asia program, ment of the NSF/NCAR Electra res e a r ch aircra f t , in operat i o n 2001 for more than 35 yea r s .

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la r gest of these systems, with 540 processors. During 1998 SCD doubled its overall computing capacity with the addition of the SGI Origin to nearly 20 gigaflops (Gflops) sustained, or more than a billion floating-point operations per second. In 2000, the aggregate capacity increased to 74 Gflops sustained, following the upgrade of the IBM SPto 375 MHz Power 3 processors. Correspond- in g l y , allocations to users have increased by over 450% since 1998. SCD supported 1,156 researchers during FY 20 0 0 , including 600 university researchers from 102 different institutions.

As the older Cray computers are decommissioned, SCD has focused on minimizing the impacts to the research co m m u n i t y . The division has held train- Figure 16. The history of supercomputing at NCAR. Inset shows ing classes, assisted model developers in the increases in capability of the past three years. Blue hori- converting their models, and provided one-on-one zontal bars represent production machines, available for assistance to many users. Ten in-depth training courses community allocation. were held on using the IBM SP. Course materials provided an overview and introduced key concepts. Many storage, data management, and consulting services. university users rely heavily on Web documentation for Figure 16 illustrates the experience with supercomputer information on how to use and write scripts for these hardware and the increase in capabilities over the past machines, so “getting started” documents are provided three years. Figure 17 shows the growth in total capa- for each system. bilities of NCAR computers since 1987. NCAR is currently acquiring the Advanced Research Computing Figure 17. Growth of total sustained computer capacity in System (ARCS), which will enable an approximately gigaflops over the mix of supercomputers at NCAR. tenfold increase in sustained computational power over the next four years, bringing NCAR into the sustained multi-teraflop era by 2005, achieving trillions of calculations per second.

The high-performance supercomputing environment in the United States has changed markedly over recent years. Gone is the preeminence of parallel vector computers, and in their place is a new generation of high-performance RISC-based distributed shared memory (DSM) machines and clusters of symmetric multiprocessor (SMP) machines.

SCD currently provides two production computers that use the new architectures: the IBM SP, which has a clustered SMParchitecture, and the SGI Origin 2000, which has a DSM architecture. The IBM SP is the

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Figure 18. NCAR’s supercomputers and the mass storage system are all connected via a fast switch.

The transition is going well. As of July 2001, 55% The current configuration of SCD computers is of SCD’s computational researchers had moved to the shown in Figure 18. As mentioned above, ARCS will IBM SP or SGI origin. SCD staff have assisted make available new high-performance computers to researchers in converting or tuning more than 20 major further speed the increase in NCAR’s research produc- codes for efficient running on these machines. SCD tivity. The plan involves acquiring and using clusters has worked closely with the modeling community to of DSM and/or SMP machines while monitoring the assist in conversion or tuning of the following models: development of other architectures as they emerge on the high-performance computing market. • Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Scientific Vis u a l i z a t i o n • Parallel Climate Model (PCM) • Parallel Ocean Program (POP, from Los Al a m o s NCAR is committed to a leadership role in inter- National Laboratory) pretation of very large, very complex data sets for advancing our understanding of the Earth system — • Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tra c e r s from wide-area access to manipulation, analysis, and (M O Z A RT ) visualization. Electronic workspaces enable • Magnetohydrodynamic 3-Dimensional Model researchers to gain and share knowledge across geo- (M H D 3 D ) graphic locations. Primary areas under development within SCD include data access facilities and • Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere enhanced electronic provision of community data sets; Electrodynamic General Circulation Model a Visual Computing Collaboratory that provides visual (T I M E - G C M )

32 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

coupled model, and weather research and forecast New FFT Library models. Users can do cooperative research runs on NCAR computers or transfer model codes to their own SCD has begun work on a scalar processor (RISC) opti- universities. Services include tutorials, workshops, mized mathematical librar y called Spectral Toolkit. Th e user groups, and collaboration on evaluation and devel- initial focus is on developing complex and real Fast Fourier opment. The scientific contributions of many of Tran s f o r ms (FFTs) optimized for scalar archi t e c t u r es. Th i s NC A R ’ s major community models are discussed else- li b ra r y provides highly portable and efficient FFT softwar e that attains 25-40% of the peak floating-point capability on where in this chapter. Here we describe the a variety of microprocessors for typical tran s f o r m lengths co m m u n i t y ’ s role in their development and use. used in geophysical applications. This librar y may significantly speed up computational fluid dynamics codes, In the case of the CCSM (see pg. 20) decisions wh i c h spend a high percentage of time executing FFTs. about the development of the model components are made in consultation with the community. As one of the largest community models in the world, the CCSM includes a full suite of management, planning, and gov- supercomputing, large-scale virtual data exploration, ernance mechanisms. There are nine working groups and wide-area collaborative visualization; analysis and to determine the advancement of the various compo- visualization applications and frameworks for Earth nents and/or model applications. A formal policy system data; shared data access, analysis, and visuali- governs the ongoing development of the various com- zation efforts with scientific programs; and research ponents, and a project plan, originally developed in and development collaborations with other labs and 1994, was revised in 2000 (http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/ un i v e r s i t i e s . csm/management/plan2000/index.html). The annual CCSM workshop attracts hundreds of users and In 2000, SCD combined the Graphics and Data developers to a week-long exchange of results, Analysis Group, the Visualization Group, and NCAR- advances, and general discussions on future directions wide Web engineering into a single section whose for the model. primary function is to provide these enabling technologies. One particularly significant activity over Other models include the mesoscale model, MM5, the past year has been building the next-generation which supports over 600 users through workshops and visual computing lab. The new facility will usher in tutorials (see page 21). A chemical transport model, the next stage in exploration of very large data sets, MO Z A R T, has been used extensively in field programs collaborative computing, and outreach. It will be a and in conjunction with satellite data (see page 25) to laboratory in the sense that new hardware and immer- elucidate the transport and concentrations of trace sive-display technologies can be researched and species in the troposphere. An upper-a t m o s p h e r e acquired while testing and expanding visualization model, TIME-GCM, has been developed under the frameworks and providing state-of-the-art data servic- leadership of the High Altitude Observatory and will es and software. The space will accommodate on-site soon be used in a new coupled model of the entire researchers, who can connect remote users; it will atmosphere, from the Earth’s surface to 150 km, called also serve as a theater for presentations requiring the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, v i s u a l i z a t i o n . WACCM (see page 43).

4. Community Models As simulations become more complex, optimizing codes to make them run more efficiently has become NCAR develops and supports an increasing number increasingly critical. As stated in the Strategic Plan for of numerical models for the community as a whole. High Performance Simulation, “NCAR will adopt soft- These run the gamut from global climate system models ware engineering practices that promote high with separate atmosphere, ocean, land-surface, sea-ice, performance and the efficient development of large and hydrology components to chemical transport mod- simulation models and software infrastructure.” els, upper-atmosphere models, a fire-atmosphere Several proposals have been submitted to develop

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software frameworks for general use in model devel- various distribution media (e.g., Web, tape, CD-ROM). opment. One major project, to be funded by NASA, Over 880 scientists and researchers around the world has recently been announced — the Earth System request more than 15 terabytes of data each year. A Modeling Framework project. In the ESMF project, majority of these users (61%) are from the university NCAR will lead a multi-institutional team of software community. developers and scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Geophysical Another important data set, available on the Web Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NASA’s Data Assimi- and on CD-ROM, is the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis of lation Office and Seasonal to Interannual Prediction 53 years of global data. This quality research data set, Project, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the which was produced by NOAA’s National Centers for University of Michigan, and other institutions to build Environmental Prediction and NCAR, will be useful to a common software framework designed to enable full researchers for many years. This and other data sets model (and model component) interoperability across from SCD are available at http://dss.ucar.edu/index. a broad range of Earth system science models. html. NCAR’s Atmospheric Technology Division maintains an extensive library of radar and aircraft data 5. Data Services sets at http://www.atd.ucar.edu/data.html.

NCAR provides access to numerous discrete data Over the past several years, UCAR has established sets. For example, in response to community requests several new community data access services, primarily for easier access to NCAR climate model data, data Web-based. The immense amount of data available products from the CCSM have been available on line presents challenges to users that are just now being since 1998. The on-line data products are consider- addressed through technological advancements. For ably more refined than the raw history data output example, cataloging and data-format incompatibilities directly from the CCSM and have proven to be very can now be overcome with sophisticated search popular with climate change researchers, both in the engines and software frameworks known as middle- United States and internationally. SCD, via its Data ware. This technology allows the user to identify and Support Section, collects and maintains a large archive obtain only the specific data sets needed. of historical and global observations as well as analysis research data. These computer-accessible data Our vision is to make data and information represent an irreplaceable resource used by major services uniformly available to all of the UCAR com- national and international atmospheric and oceanic munity with transparent, wide-area access, independent research projects. These data are made available using of how and where the data are collected and stored.

Mass Storage System

Often ref e r r ed to as the center’s “c r o wn jewel,” the NCAR Mass Storage System is a large-scale archive that stores data generat e d by climate models and other programs executed on NCAR’s supercomputers and computer servers. The MSS provides direc t access to client supercomputers at a sustained rate of 118 MB/sec.

At the end of 2000, the MSS managed more than 8.3 million files containing a total of over 273 terab ytes (TB) of stored data. Th e net gro wth rate of data in the MSS was approximately 5.2 TB per month. By comparison, in 1998, the MSS managed 5.1 million files containing 150 TB of data and was gro wing at a rate of approximately 3.8 TB per month. In 2000 alone, a total of 270 TB of data was tran s f e r r ed to/from client machines in response to over 14,000 user-initiated requests.

To accommodate the projected MSS gro wth as a result of new computing acquisitions, SCD acquired three new Storag e T ek silos in late 1999, bringing the number of silos to five. The division also began deploying adva n c e d ,h i g h e r-density tape technologies in 2000. These technologies will give NCAR a total storage capacity of 1.8 petabytes (1.8 thousand TB).

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NCAR has begun to develop an institution-wide, cen- Programme, the UN University, the Wor l d tral repository of data sets held within the center that Meteorological Organization, and the International will also provide access to other community data. Th e Strategy for Disaster Reduction. Because of its periodic Web site, to be named the Community Data Portal, is nature and the somewhat predictable pattern of its being developed with UCAR’s Unidata program under impacts, El Niño allows the earliest warning of any cli- the auspices of the NCAR Data Management Wor k i n g mate-related disaster and an opportunity for long-range Group and is currently in the test phase. Th e planning in affected countries. Community Data Portal will be a world-class repository of scientific data for research efforts of all sizes, the impacts and assessment community, and educators. Th e Figure 19. Countries involved in the UN-funded El Niño study overall concept has been tested by establishing a suite of pilot subprojects drawn from several research programs across the organization.

D. Human Dimensions and Societal Impacts

Incorporating the issues of climate-related social vulnerability and resilience into the scientific agenda is the goal of NCAR’s research into the human dimen- Team leaders for each country were identified and sions of atmospheric science. The Environmental and a workshop was convened in July 1999 to identify Societal Impacts Group (ESIG) is dedicated to studying research strategies. The “forecasting by analogy” the interaction between human activity and the physical (FBA) approach was chosen in order to provide gov- Earth system and is a recognized leader in this research. ernments with quantitative and qualitative information NC A R ’ s program is directed toward clarifying and pre- on the impacts of previous El Niño events. Such dicting future climate- and weather-related impacts, assessments can provide a government with insights assessing and evaluating the tools scientists use to make into regions, sectors, and populations that are likely to those predictions, and quantifying the impacts of poten- be at increased risk during El Niño. FBA can also pro- tial climate change and severe weather events on human vide disaster agencies with an opportunity to review populations and institutions. In 2001, NCAR is initiat- how well their contingency plans worked in 1997–98 ing a cross-divisional project in weather and climate and make adjustments to them. assessment science, with ESIG as the lead division. A “Mid-Course Evaluation Meeting” was held in 1. Impacts of the 1997–98 El Niño Macau in early 2000 to assess the progress of the country studies, discuss problems encountered, and finalize The 1997–98 El Niño spawned droughts, floods, dissemination procedures. An executive summary of fires, and frosts around the world, resulting in loss of the findings was released in October 2000 to the UN life, destruction of infrastructure, depletion of food and Millennium Assembly at the United Nations in New water reserves, displacement of communities, and out- York and received tremendous coverage in the press. breaks of disease. In an effort to understand and identify The study identified seven key recommendations for strengths and weaknesses in societal responses to El mitigating loss of property and lives and improving Niño, ESIG organized a 19-month study of the impacts responses to the environmental impacts of these events. of this event on four major regions: East Asia, Southeast The project also identified research and policy needs Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America. The study and formulated regional and national disaster prepared- was conducted under the leadership of ESIG’s Michael ness responses to El Niño and La Niña events and their Glantz, in cooperation with the UN Environment impacts (http://www.esig.ucar.edu/un/index.html).

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2. Land Use and Climate

The impact of land-use changes on climate is currently one of the most uncertain factors in studies of climate warming, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report issued earlier this year. Most of the work to date on this subject has been with computer models and has focused on deforestation in the tropics, in areas such as the Amazon. Th i s ye a r , Gordon Bonan of the Climate and Global Dynamics Division published a study of the climatic effects of the conversion of forests to croplands in the midwestern United States. The study shows that the conversion has led to a measurable cooling.

Bo n a n ’ s earlier work, with models, had indicated this cooling effect, leading him to search for the result in the temperature record. Since accurate temperature and land-use records do not exist for the U.S. Midwest 150 years ago, when agriculture began to deforest the region, Figure 20. Managed land-cover types in the Midwest and eastern seaboard Bonan relied on a direct modern-day com- (above) and pre-industrial land cover (below) parison between temperatures in predominantly forested areas and those in cropland The data showed that the daily temperature areas, to see if the two types of land cover were associ- range—the difference between the highest (usually ated with different temperatures. daytime) and lowest (usually nighttime) temperature in a day—was lower in the Midwest than in the forested He used temperatures from 65 U.S. weather report- Northeast. This was because the daytime heating at ing stations from 1986 to 1995, where the surrounding agricultural stations across the Midwest was consistent- land was either crops or forests and there were no nearly lower than that at the forested northeastern stations. by cities or water bodies, which can have their own This result was a surprise, because previous regional distinct effects on temperatures. The cropland sites climate studies showed that the Northeast should have were mostly in the Midwest, where 80% of the land is a smaller daily temperature range, due to the moderat- now under cultivation; the forested stations were in the ing influence of clouds. Bonan also found that the Northeast, where just 20% of the land is agricultural. cooling was most prominent in the Midwest in late spring and summer, just when crops reached their full The top map in Figure 20 shows the modern distri- growth. The temperature difference diminished in the bution of land-cover types for the United States east of fall, after the time of the harvest. the Rocky Mountains. Large areas of cropland in the Midwest (red) and forests in the Northeast (green) have To make sure that the results were valid for a di f ferent effects on daytime temperatures. The bottom longer time frame, Bonan analyzed a 100-year record map shows the land-cover types that would be distrib- of U.S. temperatures. Before 1940, when the two uted over the same region in the absence of human regions had more similar amounts of cropland, the dif- activity (Journal of Climate, June 2001). ference in regional daily highs was much smaller.

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3. Mitigating Disaster The 1997 Red River Flood

While forecasts of most natural disasters continue In April 1997, communities along the Red River, to improve, society is also growing more vulnerable which flows north along the North Dakota–Minnesota than ever to nature’s worst extremes. ESIG has within bo r d e r , experienced extreme flooding. Damages have its mission to study the way social forces respond to been estimated at $1–2 billion, with most occurring in weather and climate extremes. These studies focus not Grand Forks, ND, and East Grand Forks, MN. Al m o s t only on forecasting issues but also on how weather and immediately after the flood, residents and policy mak- climate information is interpreted, disseminated, and ers in Grand Forks and East Grand Forks began to used. Two recent studies by ESIG’s Roger Pielke Jr. point fingers at the river stage predictions issued by the illustrate the complexity of these questions. National Weather Service (NWS) as a factor contributing to the disaster. At East Grand Forks, the Red River Hurricane Camille crested on April 22 at 54.11 feet. Before April 14, the NWS had predicted a crest of 49 feet. On the 30th anniversary of Hurricane Camille, Pielke and NCAR colleagues Chantal Simonpietri, Interviews conducted by Pielke, as a member of Jennifer Oxelson, and Baat Enosh revisited the natural the NWS Service Assessment Team, revealed that the and social history of one of the strongest hurricanes to NWS presentation of flood prediction information strike the United States in the 20th century to assess allowed different people to interpret the flood stage what they called lessons learned and lessons lost. outlooks in different ways, some of which are demon- Camille caused more than 200 deaths and billions of strably incorrect. These different perspectives clearly dollars in damage. In its aftermath, it was called the influenced the choices made by local officials. For greatest weather catastrophe ever to strike the United Grand Forks–East Grand Forks the numerical outlook States. Since Camille, the hurricane-prone regions of issued in mid-February 1997 was for 47.5 feet (assum- the United States have developed dramatically as peo- ing no further precipitation would fall before the crest) ple have moved to the coasts and the nation’s wealth and 49 feet (assuming average precipitation would fall has increased. Estimates of potential damage from a before the crest). Some viewed the two numbers as a single future hurricane approach $100 billion. range, i.e., that the maximum flood stage would be between 47.5 and 49 feet. Others viewed the higher The authors note that many of the lessons of number as a maximum—a value that would not be Camille have had to be relearned in subsequent hurri- exceeded. This analysis of responses leads to several canes. Problems included public confusion about conclusions about the role of forecasts in processes of where the hurricane was forecast to land, varying decision. Among them, is the need to understand better urgency of broadcasts, ignorance of basic safety pre- the uncertainty inherent in outlooks and forecasts and cautions, inadequate and unenforced building codes, to better communicate uncertainty to decision makers. and unregulated growth. Misuse of predictions can lead to greater costs than if no prediction were provided. Even though forecasts have greatly improved since 1969, achieving benefits from improved forecasts will remain a challenging task. For example, the length of coastline to receive warnings has increased from an E. Education and Training average of 300 nautical miles to 400, even though the forecasts of hurricane tracks have become more exact. The reasons appear complicated but include over- Education and training are vital components of caution among decision makers and more crowded NC A R ’ s mission. NCAR’s initial educational activities coastlines. In the aftermath of hurricanes, lessons are were confined largely to programs for graduate and fo r gotten, only to have to be relearned by another postgraduate students and were centered on the co m m u n i t y . Advanced Study Program. The success of AS P has been recognized worldwide. The more-than-380 alumni of

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the AS P postdoctoral program include scores of senior- 1. Undergraduate, Graduate, and level members of the global Earth sciences research Professional Education and teaching community, including over 90 U.S. university faculty members. The AS P po s t d o c t o r a l Advanced Study Program Summer Colloquium program currently has 22 participants working in diverse areas, and AS P supports 5 graduate fellows. The annual summer colloquium in 2001, Th e Other programs also directly support graduate educa- Tropical Atmosphere and Ocean, was held from tion, such as the High Altitude Observatory’s Newkirk 9–20 July at NCAR. Designed primarily for graduate Fellowships. Through shorter-term teaching arrange- students, the colloquium typically brings together ments, roughly 50 NCAR scientists a year hold about 12 outside experts and 25 students for lectures, teaching appointments at universities. intensive discussions, and collaborative projects. Documentation on past colloquia can be reviewed at In recent years, NCAR’s traditional educational the AS P Web site (http://www.asp.ucar.edu/asp/ focus has broadened to include elementary and second- colwkshp.html). ary classrooms, undergraduate curricula, and educational products and services for the general population. Many Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research NCAR staff serve in these varied programs, speaking to and Science tour groups, participating in science fairs, making visits to local school classrooms, assisting in the development Through the sponsorship of NSF, DOE, NASA, of public Web sites, answering questions from the pub- and NOAA, UCAR provides research opportunities for lic, and contributing in other ways. This expanded approximately 20 students each summer for four years. educational mission serves a growing public interest in The goals of SOARS (http://www.ucar.edu/soars/) are strengthening the nation’s math and science education to increase the number of ethnically diverse students and literacy through the more effective integration of enrolled in master’s- and doctoral-degree programs in research and education. the atmospheric and related sciences and to increase ethnic diversity in the scientific community. A SO A R S In 2000, UCAR established an Office of Education student begins with a summer at UCAR. The student and Outreach. The initial effort of this new office has (protégé) may then apply to continue through the rest been the development of a comprehensive UCAR/ of the program. Continuing protégés spend subsequent NCAR education and outreach strategic plan, approved summers either at UCAR, at a laboratory of a sponsor- by the Board of Trustees in June 2001 (http://www. ing agency, or at their home university. The program ncar.ucar.edu/review01). There are four overall goals provides education and training, mentoring, career of the plan: counseling and guidance, summer stipends, and graduate scholarships. Participating universities share in the 1. institutionalize the education and outreach cost of the scholarships. Many of NCAR’s technical, program scientific, and administrative staff serve as research, 2. support students and professionals from pre-K writing, or community mentors for the protégés. through postgraduate levels SOARS is now a national model program. It 3. foster an informed public through science literacy served as the primary model for DOE’s Global Change 4. build diversity in the geosciences. Education Program. The City University of New Yor k ’ s Louis Stokes Alliance for Minority Participation, the University of Colorado at Boulder’s Summer Specific activities, objectives, and priority-setting Multicultural Access to Research Training, and the principles have been developed to facilitate the imple- Universidad Metropolitana’s Models in Institutional mentation of the plan. The following paragraphs Excellence have each adopted components and prac- describe some of the ongoing education and outreach tices of SOARS. activities supported by NCAR staff.

38 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

Figure 21. SOARS protégés 2001. Seated, front row (l-r): Tamara Singleton, Kate Dollen, Rynda Hudman, Erik Noble, Yarice Rodriguez and Maribel Martinez. Standing, back row (l-r): Fabiola Navarro, Resa Kelly, Segayle Walford, Andy Church, Pauline Datulayta, Shanna Pitter, Theresa Johnson, Brad Navarro, Summer Sands, Sarah Tessendorf, Michael Johnson, Ernesto Muñoz, Casey Thornbrugh and Yasmin Rodriguez. Not shown: Monica Rivera.

Sixty-one protégés have participated in SOARS materials about the Earth at all educational levels. It is since the program’s inception in 1996. Forty-one are building collections of peer-reviewed materials, interactive, 9 are alumni, and 11 have left the program. faces and tools for large data sets, and other automated Forty-two protégés have completed their bachelor’s and human-mediated services. DLESE is also acting degrees, 9 have completed their master’s degrees, and as a virtual community center that fosters interaction 3 are Ph.D. candidates. This fall 17 protégés will be and collaboration among Earth science educators and enrolled in graduate programs; three are A m e r i c a n learners. The DLESE community plan lays out the Meteorological Society Graduate Fellows. Seven community vision for its goals and priorities and a strat- SOARS protégés have co-authored papers in peer- egy for initial construction of the library (http://www. reviewed journals. The SOARS retention rate is 81%. dlese.org). NCAR staff are involved in computational support for DLESE as well as increasingly in its design Digital Library for Earth System Education and implementation. NCAR will be a major contributor to the library holdings. DLESE is an NSF-sponsored program in the UCAR Of fice of Programs (UOP) focused on providing an DLESE has recently incorporated the UCAR integrated, distributed, multidisciplinary approach to Global Change Instruction Program, which produces Earth system science education. The library will pro- instructional materials for teaching undergraduate non- vide easy access to high-quality on-line instructional science majors about global change science and issues.

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These modules, written by science experts, are for take place during summer 2002. In 2001 we will begin students who may not have much background in math planning, leveraging resources and developments under or science but whose curiosity is aroused by concern way with key national players in professional develop- for the environment. NCAR researchers provide con- ment for educators. Participants in our planning tent advice on module development. Information on activities will be selected from the National Science this program can be found at http://www.ucar.edu/ Teachers Association, National Earth Science Tea c h e r s communications/gcip. Association, American Geophysical Union, Am e r i c a n Meteorological Society, NASA, NSF, and UCAR Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, member departments that collaborate with schools of Education and Tra i n i n g ed u c a t i o n .

Part of UOP, COMET (http://www.comet.ucar.edu) NCAR Education and Outreach Web Presence was created as a broad effort to affect meteorology education and training in the United States. The pro- NCAR is working with E&O to develop Web - gram supports activities to enhance meteorology delivered content that describes NCAR’s education and education in universities and meteorological services outreach activities as well as NCAR science. Content throughout the world. NCAR scientific and technical will be engaging and age-appropriate so as to meet the st a f f support the COMET program, serving as content needs of students, teachers, and the general advisors on module development and as lecturers in the public. NCAR science will be highlighted within the CO M E T residence training program. award-winning Windows to the Universe Web site (ht t p : / / w w w. w i n d o w s . u c a r. e d u / w i n _ e n t r y.h t m l ), Classroom Grants which reaches over 400,000 users per month. Made available through NCAR/SCD servers, the site is a prime NCAR continues to provide access to its super- resource for educators and students internationally. computers for undergraduate and graduate university classes. Computing resources are provided for students LEARN II: Atmospheric Science Explorers engaged in modeling and simulations requiring high- performance computers and for classes studying LEARN II is funded by the Teacher Enhancement recently introduced architectures. In FY 2000, 26 stu- Program of NSF’s Directorate for Education and dents in five classes used NCAR’s supercomputing Human Resources. The project focuses on middle and resources, accumulating 200 CPU hours on NCAR’s junior high school science teachers in rural Colorado. CR A Y J90s and IBM SP. As LEARN comes to the end of its funding cycle this ye a r , a Web site based, in part, on the LEARN modules 2. K–12 Education will be available for use by middle-school science teachers (ht t p : / / w w w. u c a r. e d u / l e a r n ). The site will Because weather, climate, pollution, and the envi- include 29 classroom-tested activities and background ronment are part of the everyday awareness of young information, covering topics such as the atmosphere, people, the atmospheric sciences offer an unusual climate, the greenhouse effect, climate change, and opportunity to teach science in engaging, relevant stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. ways. NCAR’s K–12 education programs target both students and educators. Web Weather for Kids

NCAR Geoscience Education Wor k s h o p Web Weather for Kids (http://www.ucar.edu/40th/ webweather) is a Web site for middle-school students Building on experience with LEARN (see below), that was unveiled in February 2000 to celebrate NCAR and the Office of Education and Outreach NC A R / U C A R ’ s 40th anniversary and the AA A S (E&O) will initiate an annual summer professional National Public Science Day. It received the Unisys development workshop for K–12 educators at NCAR Prize for Online Science Education in a nationwide focused on global change. The first full workshop will competition. The site invites students to learn about

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severe weather events including thunderstorms, light- findings into new applications and technologies as well ning, and tornadoes by offering hands-on activities as through effective and timely dissemination of new developed for LEARN’s “Atmospheric Dynamics” information. NCAR has a responsibility for ensuring teaching module. In July 2000, UCAR received an that this transfer process takes place either directly to NSF Geoscience Education grant to increase the site’s users or indirectly by putting information and technolo- standards-based science content with help from NCAR gy into the public domain or licensing its use. scientists. When Web Weather for Kids II is completed Information and technology transfer are focused at in January 2002, it will be expanded to explore atmos- NCAR in the Research Applications Program (RAP) pheric processes responsible for creating clouds, and the Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, but blizzards, and hurricanes. It will also feature a daily new discoveries with potentially broad societal benefit weather forecasting contest. can arise in any division or program. The following paragraphs describe some of the highlights of NCAR’s 3. Outreach to the Public technology transfer program.

UC A R ’ s public education programs aim to increase 1. Weather Support to Deicing Decision the scientific literacy of people of all ages by interesting Making them in the atmosphere as part of the Earth system, the impacts of weather and climate on their lives, and the The accumulation of ice on aircraft prior to takeoff application of scientific knowledge to decision making has long been recognized as one of the most significant about careers, lifestyles, and public policies. Tou r s , safety hazards affecting the aviation industry. Ac u t e l y exhibits, and other informal activities frequently enlist aware of this problem, the FAA began supporting NCAR staff to demonstrate scientific principles relevant ground icing research at RAP in 1991. The work has to the environment. These activities attract an estimated included studies of fundamental microphysical process- 60,000 visitors a year to the NCAR Mesa Lab. es along with novel remote and in-situ sensing techniques. Over the past decade, RAP scientists and Workshops on Science, Tec h n o l o g y , and Education engineers have integrated the results of this work into a state-of-the-art operational system that displays accu- In 2001 NCAR hosted several workshops for rate, real-time nowcasts of snowfall rate as well as teachers, undergraduate faculty, and the public to information on current temperature, humidity, wind inform them of recent discoveries in the atmospheric speed, and direction. It requires minimal training to and related sciences and to learn how this information operate the Weather Support to Deicing Decision can be disseminated to diverse audiences. In January Making (WSDDM) system and no special meteorologi- over 40 undergraduate science faculty convened at the cal knowledge to interpret it. NCAR Mesa Lab for a workshop on earth system education partnerships with research institutions. In Ap r i l , Figure 22. Icing on aircraft wing (courtesy of NASA Glenn volunteer weather observers from across Colorado and Research Center) Wyoming participated in a workshop honoring their contributions to weather data that support weather prediction and research.

F. Applications and Technology/ Information Transfer

Scientific understanding is a primary goal of NCAR, but the resulting knowledge must also be put to work. This is done through the transfer of research

41 PROGRAM PERFORMANCE

Snowfall and weather information from the display developers and users of the system to work together to are used by ground personnel conducting aircraft deic- improve the quality and usefulness of weather informa- ing, airline station control managers coordinating flights, tion and its delivery. The system is extremely popular airport managers overseeing runway plowing, and air with pilots, dispatchers, airport ground operations staff, tr a f fic controllers involved in gate-hold planning. Th e airlines, and Ar m y , Navy, Air Force, and Coast Guard information allows decision makers to anticipate both personnel. United Airlines manager of meteorology the beginning and end of snowfall at the airport and sur- Carl Knable has said that in his 35 years in the aviation rounding regions. The system was successfully demon- weather business he “could not recall a more significant strated and evaluated at airports in Denver, New Yor k , advance in the production and delivery of essential avi- and Chicago. At the FAA ’s direction, the technology ation products than AD D S . ” was transferred to a private firm, ARINC, in 1998 for commercial implementation at additional airports. In 1999 the creators of the ADDS system were Currently the system is operational at three New Yor k awarded NCAR’s Outstanding Science and Tec h n i c a l airports, and implementation in Denver is planned for Accomplishment prize. In 2000 the FAA received a 2001. WSDDM is also being evaluated for use at the Government Technology Leadership Award for this 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics. In 1999 the FAA pioneering program. was awarded a prestigious Government Tec h n o l o g y Leadership Award for the successful development and implementation of the WSDDM system.

Beyond its practical benefit, the WSDDM program G. Cross-Divisional and has led to advances in scientific understanding of a Interdisciplinary Programs number of fundamental problems including the physics of freezing drizzle formation, improved forecasts of snowfall employing four-dimensional data assimilation, As our understanding of the Earth system has and accurate real-time estimation of snowfall rate increased, the inherent connectedness of its components (mass accumulation). Two papers on the last topic, has become increasingly clear. In order to increase including both theory and observational perspectives, understanding, reduce uncertainty, and provide useful were awarded UCAR’s Outstanding Publication Awa r d information about the Earth system to a constellation of in December 2000. policy and decision makers, NCAR has moved toward an increasingly interdisciplinary focus. The theme of 2. Aviation Digital Data Service the new strategic plan is “NCAR as an Integrator.” Most of the new strategic initiatives outlined in the draft For the past five years RAP, in conjunction with plan involve interdivisional collaboration. A si g n i f i c a n t NOAA’s Forecast Systems Laboratory and the NWS’s challenge for NCAR is to conduct such studies while Aviation Weather Center, has worked under FAA fund- maintaining the breadth and depth of the disciplinary ing to develop an Aviation Digital Data Service. (divisional) knowledge, without which interdisciplinary ADDS provides route-specific graphics of key aviation collaboration becomes meaningless. weather hazards, meteorological observations and forecasts, and grids of aviation-impact variables in a Cross-divisional interactions have increased as the user-friendly manner over the Internet. For the first traditional disciplinary boundaries have been breached time, access to extremely complex information has in the pursuit of understanding the Earth system. become available and comprehensible to nonmeteorol- Figure 23 shows some of the most significant ogists in the aviation community. cross-divisional programs and projects. NCAR has established various mechanisms to foster this cross- ADDS has also served as a vehicle for moving fertilization: joint appointments between divisions; experimental weather products developed at RAP (e . g . , programs within programs, such as the Geophysical co n v e c t i v e - w e a t h e r , icing, and turbulence-forecasting Turbulence Program; and new programs, such as algorithms) to end users for evaluation. ADDS allows the Geophysical Statistics Program. Several new

42 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

Figure 23. NCAR programs with significant cross-divisional interactions integrative projects related to the new strategic plan A comprehensive numerical model that extends will be managed by interdivisional councils composed from the Earth’s surface to the thermosphere, WAC C M of scientists from two or more divisions. reflects the importance of coupling between atmospheric regions. Vertical transport of minor species 1. Whole Atmosphere Community Climate from the troposphere is known to play a major role in Model the chemistry of the middle and upper atmosphere. There is also increasing awareness that changes in the The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate propagation characteristics of planetary waves in the Model is the next step in the evolution of Earth system stratosphere, due to natural or anthropogenic factors, models at NCAR. The development of WACCM is an may play a role in tropospheric climate variability. interdivisional collaboration that unifies certain There is increasing evidence of real correlations aspects of the upper atmospheric modeling of the High between the 11-year solar cycle and temperatures in Altitude Observatory, the middle atmosphere modeling the troposphere and lower stratosphere, but the of the Atmospheric Chemistry Division, and the tro- physical and chemical mechanisms remain uncertain. pospheric modeling of the Climate and Global Dynamics Division, using the Community Climate Work on WACCM began in 2000 with seed fund- System Model as a common numerical framework. ing from the NCAR Director’s Opportunity Fund. Th e

43 PROGRAM PERFORMANCE

initial model incorporated the physical and chemical flexible model environment whose domain and compo- processes required to investigate coupling between nent modules can be configured according to the atmospheric regions from the surface to 140 km. specific problem under study. Noninteractive dynamics and chemistry/transport runs were carried out to test individual components. Th e s e 2. Geophysical Statistics Project runs have shown that the model can simulate realistic zonal mean fields, tidal motions, and distributions of Postdoctoral appointments in statistics are a rather minor species. Further addition of upper thermospheric new phenomenon, and the Geophysical Statistics physics and chemistry, much of which is currently Project is unique among such programs. Established in operating in HAO’s Thermosphere, Ionosphere, 1993 with support from the Mathematics and Physical Mesosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Sciences Directorate of NSF, GSP pursues the innova- Model, will eventually allow WACCM to extend tive application and development of statistical upward to about 500 km. WACCM is envisaged as a methodology to address problems faced in the Earth

Figure 24. WACC M - 0 1 is based on the atmospheric model component of CCSM, with additional physical parameterizations: a gravity- wave spectrum, molecular diffusion, non-LTE longwave radiation, and shortwave heating (120-200 nm) from TIME-GCM. The simulated zonal winds and temperatures reproduce the observed structure of the troposphere, stratosphere, and lower mesosphere quite well. The zonal wind reversals near 80 km and above are driven by gravity drag. The reversals in the zonal wind structure above 80 km are observed; however, the simulated winds are slightly too weak. The ozone simulated by MOZART, using WACCM wind and temperature fields, reproduces the observed ozone reasonably well, although closer analysis would reveal significant discrepancies.

44 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

sciences. A complementary activity is to generalize UCAR Advocacy Activities specific problems in the geophysical sciences to broad- based statistical research. Through GSP’s leadership, • Community Direction. UCAR's Board of Trustees NCAR has been successful in connecting the statistical approves and members’ representatives review UCAR's community to substantive problems of data analysis and advocacy efforts each year. stochastic modeling that are important to progress in the geosciences. Ten postdoctoral fellows have gone • Advocacy Focus. UCAR monitors and supports atmo- through the program since its inception, with the major- spheric and related science budgets, policy, and ity going on to university positions. The research legislative issues on behalf of the community, including conducted by these postdocs during their appointments programs in NSF, NOAA, NASA, DOE, and FAA and policy has included analysis of functional data, statistical com- issues such as doubling the NSF budget, climate puting for large data sets, regression and classification, change, building a diverse work force, digital libraries, and spatial and spatiotemporal processes. More than 50 supercomputing needs, the free and open exchange of data, and expansion of the private sector into weather NCAR and external scientists have been associated with and climate service areas. GS P postdoctoral fellows and research assistants. • Visits, Letters, and Testimony. UCAR alerts and supports the community when action is needed. Hundreds Using Cloud Resolving Models for of UCAR and community members visit the Hill, write Understanding Subgrid-Scale Properties letters,or testify each year.

Enrica Bellone (GSP postdoctoral scientist), working with • Communications. UCAR provides information to federal other NCAR and University of Washington scientists, is agencies and Congress on critical issues (through using a cloud-resolving model to find rel a t i o n s h i p s Science Briefs), offers guidance to new administrations between the upwar d mass flux and large-scale phys i c a l (through transition documents), and maintains a Web co n d i t i o n s , in a continuation of a project begun by anoth- site (see address below) to help the community advo- er GSP postdoc, Philippe Naveau. Such statistical models cate effectively. would provide an alternative to current param e t e r i z a t i o n s in general circulation models and would be grounded in • Research and Pol i c y Briefings. UCAR maintains the com- the subgrid-scale behavior simulated by the cloud model. mu n i t y ’ s presence before policy makers by orga n i z i n g Pre l i m i n a r y analysis on a small subset of simulations res e a r ch and policy briefings. Topics of past congres s i o n - from the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment indicates al briefings include East Coast storms , aviation weather, strong relationships between these quantities. Th e s e fi re s , space weather, en e r gy policy, and weather informa - results suggest that, given the wind profiles and the con- tion. All of these briefings involve many partners from vective available potential energy , one should be able to universities and professional societies. reconstruct the mass flux reasonably well. • Partnerships. In advocacy activities, UCAR partners with other organizations, including the American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, National Association of State Land Grant Colleges, H. Community Advocacy American Geological Institute, Colorado Federal Relations Coordinating Council, and the new Senate Natural Hazards Caucus. UCAR supports a broad range of advocacy activities on behalf of the community (see box). For • Recruiting. UCAR monitors graduate student enroll- example, scientists from NCAR and UCAR universi- ments and sponsors a recruiting Web site on behalf of ties recently participated in congressional briefings in the community. Washington, D.C., on topics such as how weather information informs U.S. energy policy. Excerpts, See http://www.ucar.edu/oga for examples of all these slides, and audio recordings of these and other public activities. programs on a variety of scientific topics can be found at (http://www.ucar.edu/40th/Roberts/index.html).

V. MAJOR NON-NSF SPONSORED PROGRAMS

he review of the programs of NCAR would be users in the “art of the possible,” is an important element incomplete without consideration of the signifi- in securing new investments in research and develop- T cant contributions of agencies other than NSF. ment that ultimately benefit society. Second, RAP As shown in Table 4 on page 74, approximately one- integrates expertise in applied science, engineering, and third of the total expenditures at NCAR derive from program management within the division, matching the other agencies. These non-NSF programs are spon- appropriate skill sets to specific R&D/technology- sored by NASA, NOAA, DOE, FAA, and other federal transfer objectives. Third, RAP works collaboratively agencies. Non-NSF programs at NCAR supplement with other divisions, government laboratories, and mem- and complement the NSF base program. Funds provid- bers of the university community to integrate expertise ed by the agencies significantly leverage the NSF in fundamental science and new tools, methods, or facil- investment in a synergistic manner that furthers both the ities with the division’s resident capabilities. The result is NSF program and the specific agency mission. Non- an enhanced effort that contributes to the overall balance NSF programs are also opportunities to collaborate with of the research agenda and broadens the scientific per- university investigators or otherwise provide benefit to spective. By directing its research and development the university community. While there are over 100 toward societally relevant weather issues, RAP co m p l e - active projects, we have in this section chosen to high- ments the more basic research emphasized in most of the light two major programs. other NCAR divisions.

The research, development, and technology transfer activities conducted by RAP during the current review A. Research Applications period provide tangible benefits to NCAR, NSF, and the Program national interest. The following section highlights three important RAP programs that illustrate those benefits. Another two are described on pages 41–42. The central mission of NCAR’s Research Applications Program (RAP) is to perform and facili- 1. The Auto-Nowcaster tate the transfer of technology developed in the atmospheric sciences to the public and private sectors. The roots of modern “nowcasting” techniques for The desire to connect science to society has also been thunderstorms go back to 1981, when NCAR first clearly emphasized by NSF in its Merit Review deployed its upgraded CP-2 radar during the Coopera- Criterion #2 (related to the “broader impact of the tive Convective Precipitation Experiment. CP-2 was the research”) and by NCAR and UCAR in their mission first weather radar to have sufficient sensitivity to statements. This section describes some of the most observe echoes and air motion in the optically clear significant RAP pr o g r a m s . boundary layer, and it provided the first clues that the overwhelming majority of thunderstorms are forced by Technology transfer is typically the end stage of a narrow convergence regions in the boundary layer that lengthy research and development effort. By participat- can be tracked by radar. Acontinuous record of research ing in, and often initiating, R&D programs, RAP al s o since that time has led RAP scientists and engineers to accelerates scientific progress in the geosciences. It does better understand the processes at work, test ideas in an so in several ways. First, the division is proactive in experimental setting, and translate the results into an assessing societal needs for better weather information. operational environment. Early results of this work were Having worked for two decades in the aviation weather disseminated in the first COMET training module for arena, RAPhas gained a good deal of visibility and cred- NWS forecasters and have proven influential in exploit- ibility with mission agencies. This reputation, coupled ing the potential of the WSR-88D radar network for with program development aimed at educating potential forecasts and warnings.

47 MAJOR NON-NSF SPONSORED PROGRAMS

Figure 25. The delineated areas on the left show the 60-minute automated Auto- Nowcaster forecast of where thunderstorms are expected. The actual position of storm echoes, 60 minutes later, is shown on the right. The boundaries indicated on the left represent the position of low-level convergence regions and are a crucial element of the nowcasting procedure.

A major result of this effort is an expert system 2. Advanced Operational Aviation called the Au t o - N o w c a s t e r . It uses some 30 diffe r e n t Weather System computational procedures to predict the initiation, growth, movement, and decay of thunderstorms, and RAP, in collaboration with MMM, has been work- provides outlooks every five minutes for periods of up ing for the past four years to develop an advanced to an hour. By tracking convergence lines (gust fronts, aviation weather system for the Civil Aeronautics sea breezes, and other zones where air converges), the Administration in Taiwan. This program, like many at Auto-Nowcaster predicts where storms will form. Th e RAP, is an excellent example of an end-to-end goal is to provide a better forecast than would be R&D/technology transfer effort aimed at solving a par- obtained from simply extrapolating the positions of ticular weather-related set of problems. The program existing storms. Recognizing the importance of began with an in-depth assessment of user needs; improved short-term forecasting of thunderstorms, the moved on to the basic and applied research necessary FAA, U.S. Ar m y , and NWS all contribute funding to to understand the weather/climate/terrain of Taiwan; this effort. The result has been significant scientific encompassed a lengthy design, development, and test- advances by RAP, the Mesoscale and Microscale ing period for the software systems and displays; and Meteorology Division (MMM), and the At m o s p h e r i c will end with delivery of the system and training for Technology Division in understanding the physical users. processes at play. At the core of the Advanced Operational Avi a t i o n In 2000, the Auto-Nowcaster and other advanced Weather System (AOAWS) is the Penn. State/NCAR software systems from NOAA, Environment Canada, Mesoscale Model, version 5 (MM5). The model is now the U.K. Meteorology Office, and the University of providing regularly updated forecasts on a range of tem- Salford, England, were demonstrated at the Olympics in poral and spatial scales, which allows forecasters to see Sy d n e y , Australia. Au s t r a l i a ’ s Bureau of Meteorology the large-scale changes over East Asia and the western issued official Olympic forecasts by analyzing output Pacific over two-day periods, while also providing from the Auto-Nowcaster and four other automated sys- detailed information on conditions over the Taiwan flight tems and then applying their own insights. Th e i r information region every half hour. Funding from the outlooks went to emergency managers, flight controllers Taiwan program has contributed to basic MM5-related at Sydney Airport, venue managers at the Olympics, and research and model improvement, resulting in improved personnel in charge of the Sydney Harbour Bridge cumulus parameterization schemes and tropical cyclone Climb, a tourist attraction. By the end of the demon- initialization, as well as better understanding of the stration, NCAR had clearly established itself as a world impact of select data types on forecasts. The AO AW S leader in developing algorithms and forecasting tools for work has also supported research in mesoscale data thunderstorm initiation, growth, and dissipation. assimilation and development of the MM5 3DVAR

48 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

system. These improvements to MM5 constitute a clear integrator is able to adapt to changing weather regimes, benefit to the community and to the NSF-sponsored pro- variations in the relative skill of the inputs, and gram at NCAR. changes in the suite of input modules.

The AO A WS weather product suite provides DI C A S T is the core technology for a surface trans- enhanced detection and forecasting of primary weather portation decision support system RAPis developing in hazards (e.g., thunderstorms, wind shear, and terrain- conjunction with five national laboratories for the induced turbulence) to pilots, controllers, traffi c Federal Highways Administration. RAP is also working managers, and forecasters at the Taipei Meteorological closely with WI T I ’ s successor, Intelligent Wea t h e r Ce n t e r . The sponsor and airline and airport users Solutions, Inc., to develop new applications for this believe that the system is already improving aviation technology in weather-sensitive industries. safety and efficiency in Tai w a n .

3. Dynamic, Integrated Forecast System B. High-Resolution Dynamics In 1999 RAP began to develop a core “weather engine” for the dissemination of timely, accurate, auto- Limb Sounder mated global weather forecasts. This technology, the Dynamic, Integrated Forecast System (DICAST), was HIRDLS is a 21-channel limb-scanning infrared originally funded through Weather Information radiometer that will fly on the Aura spacecraft, the mis- Technologies, Inc. (WITI), then the wholly owned, for- sion of NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS) profit arm of the UCAR Foundation. Through WI T I , devoted to the study of atmospheric chemistry. DI C A S T was provided to commercial weather vendors, HIRDLS, a joint project involving NCAR, Oxford who now use it to make more than 50 million automat- Un i v e r s i t y , and the University of Colorado, will ed forecasts each day over the Internet. In the first address several key problems related to global change year of its operation, the system was 100% reliable and research. The instrument will provide global coverage its forecasts were deemed superior to those of the NWS of a large number of chemical species important to at 92% of the 27,000 forecast sites. ozone and climate change studies, with unprecedented vertical and horizontal resolution. NCAR scientist During the 18-month development period, RAP John Gille conceived of HIRDLS in 1987 and has led scientists and engineers made several exciting its development. advances. The traditional method for extracting weather forecasts from numerical weather models, model The experiment will obtain data from the upper output statistics (MOS), was extended and improved. troposphere to the mesopause, or from about 8 to Dynamic-MOS (DMOS) replaces the static statistical 80 km, with special emphasis on the poorly observed relationships of MOS with continuously updating rela- region near the tropopause that plays critical roles in tionships that are self-determined from the most recent processes related to the global climate. These data will data for a specific local weather regime. DMOS repre- provide unique information on the atmospheric state sents the state of the art in forecast extraction from and composition in that region, as well as dynamical models and is the first-ever large-scale operational and chemical processes taking place there, with implementation of its kind. unprecedented accuracy and temporal and spatial resolution. Of particular importance are the transports and The development of a forecast integrator was stratosphere-troposphere exchanges of radiatively and another major achievement. The DICAST system relies chemically active species. The new data provided by on a number of forecast modules each making an inde- HIRDLS are expected to be an enormous aid to the sci- pendent best guess of the forecast. The forecast entific community in understanding these phenomena integrator uses fuzzy logic to synthesize the set of esti- and scales. mates into a single forecast, using a set of adaptive weights, confidences, and biases. Like DMOS, the

49 MAJOR NON-NSF SPONSORED PROGRAMS

The scientific objectives of HIRDLS are to many years, NCAR’s Atmospheric Chemistry Division has played a leading role in studies of the chemistry of • understand the fluxes of mass and chemical con- the stratosphere and mesosphere through in situ obser- stituents between the troposphere and stratosphere; vations, modeling, and analysis of satellite data. AC D • understand chemical processing, transports, and scientists worked on the Limb Radiance Inversion mixing, particularly in the lower stratosphere; Ra d i o m e t e r , the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere, and, most recently, the Upper At m o s p h e r e • determine upper tropospheric composition; Research Satellite (UARS) experiments, launched in • understand the momentum, energy , and potential 1991. Many more have been making use of UARS data vorticity balances in the middle atmosphere; to solve a new generation of chemical and dynamical problems in the middle atmosphere and to advance • obtain long-term climatologies, trends, and interan- our ability to model those phenomena. Simultaneously, nual variabilities of retrieved quantities; the Climate and Global Dynamics Division has been • provide data for model validation (especially at a leader in the use of three-dimensional models of those smaller scales for which there are now no middle-atmosphere dynamics. The CGD Middle data with which to check the model’s chemical or Atmosphere Community Climate Model 2 has been dynamical behavior); and used to model and interpret the distribution of trace species observed by UARS experiments. HIRDLS • improve tropospheric temperature and water vapor planning has encouraged development of the strato- retrievals by providing high-resolution limb data spheric version of the Community Climate System for joint retrieval with nadir sounders. Mo d e l . Unique features include the ability to observe the region around the tropopause with high (~1 km) vertical In addition, three-dimensional models in AC D , resolution, with a regular horizontal resolution of 5º lon- CGD, and HAO of atmospheric chemistry, dynamics, gitude by 5º latitude over the globe twice a day. Th e and transports are being combined in the Wh o l e horizontal resolution is programmable, so that resolu- Atmosphere Community Climate Model (see page 43). tions as fine as 1º by 1º can be obtained in regions of WACCM will tie together models dealing with the tro- special interest. Each measurement will include deter- posphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, and low mination of temperature, ten trace species of radiative thermosphere, the regions covered by the HIRDLS and chemical importance, aerosol concentrations and data. There has also been intensified modeling empha- composition, gradients of geopotential height, and sis on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, cloud-top and polar stratospheric cloud locations. No stratosphere-troposphere exchange, and the roles of other system under development at this time is capable these processes in climate and ozone chemistry. Th e of making this suite of measurements. HIRDLS data will be unique, allowing critical checks on the fidelity of these models, leading to their further The HIRDLS effort is greatly aided by the simulta- improvement. In turn, the interpretation of the neous involvement of several staff on the Measurements HIRDLS data will be greatly aided by the use of the of Pollution in the Troposphere experiment, launched NCAR models. In recognition of this synergy , on the first EOS platform in December 1999 (see page HIRDLS funding is supporting further developments of 24). Many of the same areas of expertise in radiative WACCM, in part for use by HIRDLS investigators for tr a n s f e r , retrieval algorithms, and operational software planning, simulations, and data interpretation. development are employed in developing the two HIRDLS is now beginning to support studies of data instruments, and several people work on both, facilitat- assimilation in ACD and Web access to the resulting ing easy exchange of information and lessons learned. data. The program hopes to support further develop- This synergy has been a major factor in carrying out ments to the extent that funds allow. these programs in a cost-effective way. Additional information is available at http://www. The beneficial impact of the HIRDLS program on eos.ucar.edu/hirdls. NC A R ’ s NSF program occurs in several ways. For

50 VI. EXTERNAL LINKAGES

CA R ’ s mission includes research, facility sup- University interactions are a part of every program port, education, and technology transfer. Th e and division at NCAR and are a primary factor in N scope of this mission requires a wide range of deciding whether to submit proposals for non-NSF linkages, and teamwork of many kinds permeates every funding. NCAR submitted 191 proposals and projects division and program and involves a large percentage to outside agencies in FY 2000, involving 243 separate of the scientific and technical staff. Collaborations collaborations with 61 different universities. Of the exist in research programs, technical development, sup- 191 NCAR proposals and projects submitted, 80 were port activities, communication and dissemination of submitted by universities to the funding agency, with scientific and technical findings, and education and NCAR playing a supporting role. Examples range outreach programs. This section discusses scientific from large, long-term programs such as HIRDLS and partnerships with other UCAR programs, the universi- the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energe t i c s ties, other research facilities, international groups, and and Dynamics (TIMED) Doppler Interferometer (TIDI) industry; visitor programs; reciprocal appointments; to smaller projects involving equipment fabrication at and workshops and colloquia. NCAR on a university’s behalf.

NCAR has played a role in addressing important national priorities through interactions with U.S. government agencies. The U.S. Global Change Research A. Programs and Projects Program and the U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) demonstrate NCAR’s ability to focus over extensive periods of time on large problems in climate NC A R ’ s collaborative efforts contribute to national and weather. This work is coordinated through a num- and community priorities and programs as well as aug- ber of federal agencies including NSF, NOAA, NASA, menting its own activities. Joint projects between NCAR DOE, and EPA. NCAR houses the Office of the Lead and the university research community are the most com- Scientist for USWRP, and the director of the Mesoscale mon form of collaboration, but strong ties exist between and Microscale Meteorology Division (MMM), Robert NCAR and other federal and national laboratories, inter- Gall, is the current USWRP lead scientist. national research and technology centers, and the UCAR Of fice of Programs. Initiatives and proposals, whether Other projects of more limited duration such as developed in-house or in response to national or interna- facility and software development are also undertaken tional programs, are scrutinized for appropriateness to the in conjunction with government agencies. As dis- ce n t e r , the presence of university collaborators, and fit cussed on pages 25–26, the Atmospheric Tec h n o l o g y with current program and staff levels. Division has developed and deployed a GPS dropsonde system, a significant new instrument that is fast becom- ing the standard throughout the government research aviation community. Each aircraft that drops these sondes has been provided with an ATD - d e s i g n e d dropsonde data system. These aircraft include the NO A A Gulfstream IV and NASA’s DC-8, in addition to the NCAR/NSF C-130, operated by ATD. NCAR’s Research Applications Program has developed a Thunderstorm Auto-Nowcaster (see page 47), which

51 EXTERNAL LINKAGES

produces time- and space-specific, very-short-period collaboration with scientists at local universities. Other forecasts of thunderstorms; RAP is demonstrating the types of international collaborations include memoran- ef fectiveness of the system to improve NWS forecasts da of understanding to promote modeling effo r t s of convective weather over oceanic regions. between the Max Planck Institute and NCAR’s Climate and Global Dynamics Division and between Seoul NCAR participates with national labs and interna- National University and NCAR’s Mesoscale and tional research groups in a variety of large projects and Microscale Meteorology Division, participation in long-term efforts. The airborne ELDORAis an exam- international projects, and many collaborations with ple. After more than three decades of service to the foreign researchers. co m m u n i t y , the NSF/NCAR Electra aircraft has been retired. The Naval Research Laboratory has agreed to NCAR works closely with its sister orga n i z a t i o n mount the ELDORA ra d a r , built specifically to operate within UCAR, the UCAR Office of Programs (UOP). on the Electra, on an NRL P-3 aircraft. Under a recent- For example, NCAR’s Scientific Computing Division ly completed agreement with NRL, the radar will (SCD) is working closely with Unidata on developing a continue to be available to the NSF user community as Community Data Portal (see page 35) and ATD, RAP, well as to NRL and other agencies. RAP is participat- and Unidata are working together on developing new ing in a hail research study in Ar gentina and in a radar display systems. ATD and JOSS work together rainfall enhancement prototype effort in the United on a broad range of field campaigns including the high- Arab Emirates. In both cases there is extensive ly successful Indian Ocean Experiment and AC E - A s i a .

TI D I

As part of NASA’s TIMED (Thermo s p h e r e, Io n o s p h e r e, Me s o s p h e r e Energetics and Dynamics) mission to investigate and understand the energetics of the Earth’s me s o s p h e r e and lower thermo s p h e re - i o n o s p h e r e reg i o n , NCAR is developing the TIMED Doppler Interferometer (TIDI) instrument in collaboration with the University of Michigan for launch in late summer 2001. TIDI measurements will al l o w us to obtain a global description of the vector wind and temperat u r e fields as well as important information on gravity wave s , species densities, ai rg l o w and au r o r al emission rat e s , noctilucent clouds, and ion drifts.

The Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative Pilot Program The DOE Ac c e l e r ated Climate Prediction Initiative is a large , lo n g - t e r m program that will acquire and put in place the computational res o u r ces req u i r ed for future global simulations while simultaneously developing the scientific and other infras t r u c t u r e needed to ca r r y out a full assessment of potential anthropogenic threats. The pilot program will demonstrate all the key parts of the larger climate prediction initiative in an end-to-end process. The different model components—ocean, at m o s p h e r e, la n d , sea ice, an d ot h e r s — h a ve been integrated into a global climate model, the Parallel Climate Model, wh i c h uses today’s observed ocean for initial co n d i t i o n s , runs climate simulations under various scenarios of greenhouse gas changes through 2050 or 2100, and finally down - scales from global to regional predictions.

Data Quality Tec h n i q u e s Over a long period, NCAR has collaborated with programs in NOAA ’s Forecast Systems Laborat o r y in developing improved data quality techniques for NEXRAD that use automatic anomalous propagation mitigation and range velocity dealiasing algorithms. These techniques will allow more accurate estimation of precipitation and greater area cove r age for all automatic algorithms by im p r o ving the ove r all base data quality.

52 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

UCAR Office of Programs MISSION To provide a range of services at the national and international level in research, education, training, technology, data, and administration to enhance (1) the observing, modeling, and understanding of the natural processes involved in improved weather and climate prediction, (2) the training of the next generation of scientists and forecasters, and (3) the collaboration with broader interdisciplinary geoscience research and education efforts related to the atmospheric sciences

PROGRAMS • Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education and Training (COMET): supports the professional development of operational forecasters in the NWS, Navy, and Air Force

• Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC): collaborates with Taiwan on a global observing network of microsatellites to demonstrate value of radio occultation sounding technique in research and operations

• Digital Library for Earth System Education (DLESE) Program Center: supports the Earth system science community digital library effort

• Global Positioning System Science and Technology Program (GST): develops GPS applications for the geosciences

• Joint Office for Science Support (JOSS): provides support services for field programs and other multi-institutional research

• Unidata: enables universities to acquire and use data in real time

• Visiting Scientist Programs (VSP): supports visiting scientist and postdoctoral placements

NCAR works with GST and COSMIC to understand grants, and others, including young scientists and world how to use new GPS-based observing systems in the leaders in climate, chemistry, solar physics, mesoscale atmospheric sciences, including SCD’s support to me t e o r o l o g y , and societal impacts, on an ongoing basis. SuomiNet (a national university-based GPS network) Visits last from a few days to a year or longer and pro- and HAO and MMM’s interest in COSMIC’s weather, duce results in the form of joint publications, model space weather, and climate measurements, and new improvements, and improved scientific understanding. GPS refractive slant tomography techniques for measuring water vapor fields. NCAR’s Ad v a n c e d Visitor programs provide opportunities for collabo- Study Program and UOP’s Visiting Scientist Programs ration within and across disciplines; for example, the work closely on issues related to postdoctoral appoint- Community Climate System Model visitor program ments and visitors. MMM, ATD, and RAP pr o v i d e of fers opportunities for scientists from a variety of expert input into COMET’s modules for training subdisciplines to work on the CCSM. The Geophysical operational forecasters, providing an important integra- Statistics Project is another example. tion of research and education. Many of the NCAR divisions will be working with DLESE to populate the The visitor programs at NCAR are characterized digital library. by their number, flexibility, quantity, and quality. These interactions generally begin at the individual- scientist level. An area of mutual interest can be the basis for a visit, with timing, duration, and level of sup- B. Visitor Programs port determined by the relevant division. This flexibility creates a great number of opportunities, over a wide number of potential topics, involving the most NC A R ’ s visitor programs provide unique opportu- appropriate scientists. There were over 2,500 visitors nities for interactions among scientists from around the to NCAR during the past five years. globe. NCAR hosts university collaborators, co-PIs on

53 EXTERNAL LINKAGES

Figure 26. Number of scientific visitors to NCAR and lengths of D. Workshops and Colloquia stay, 1998–2000

NCAR further demonstrates community leadership through its extensive participation in and hosting of scientific meetings. The center initiates and coordinates a large array of conferences, workshops, and colloquia on scientific and technical topics. Prominent among these is the summer colloquium of the Advanced Study Program (ht t p : / / w w w. a s p . u c a r . ed u / a s p / c o l w k s h p . h t m l ). This annual event focuses attention on a current research topic of special interest and brings together graduate students, faculty, and researchers for two weeks of intense study and di s c u s s i o n .

Specialized conferences, such as on the Com- munity Climate System Model or the Coupling, En e r getics, and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions, are held for those in the research community working on specific scientific problems. Advances in under- C. Reciprocal Appointments standing, thought on future directions, and technical problems and solutions can be shared and disseminated to the participants through invited talks, poster Long-term collaborations among NCAR staff and sessions, and demonstrations. Facility development university or other community researchers are also meetings, such as the recent one on the HIAPER air- encouraged. These interactions are formalized through craft initiative, combine scientific understanding with reciprocal appointments, primarily with U.S. universi- technological and engineering expertise, to insure ties but also with foreign and domestic research that instrument developments provide the capabilities in s t i t u t i o n s . needed in the field. Hosting planning meetings on em e r ging science topics, such as recent NCAR collo- Af filiate scientists are university researchers quia on collaboratories, data mining, and integrating appointed to an NCAR division to carry out research in the biogeosciences, is another way in which NCAR a specific area. These arrangements are approved by involves the community in establishing long-range the university department, the director of NCAR, and plans. During FY 2000 there were 77 of these the UCAR trustees. Currently, there are approximately NCAR-sponsored workshops and conferences, at two dozen affiliate scientist appointments, in addition to which 71 institutions were represented. the many less-formal arrangements between universities and NCAR staff. For example, in FY 2000, NCAR scientists held 51 teaching appointments at 27 institutions, NCAR staff served as graduate advisors to 58 students at 34 universities, and there were 82 NCAR members of thesis committees for candidates at 34 institutions.

NCAR also encourages sabbaticals of up to a year for NCAR scientists to collaborate with colleagues at other institutions. Under UCAR policy, all members of the scientific staff are eligible for sabbaticals similar to those in universities.

54 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

2000–01 Workshop Highlights

Community Climate System Modeling: The update of the Community Climate System Model, CCSM2, was presented to the community in June 2001 at the annual workshop attended by over 260 scientists from around the world. ASP Summer Colloquium: The theme of the 2000 colloquium was the Dynamics of Decadal to Centennial Climate Variability. The topic for 2001 was The Tropical Atmosphere and Ocean. Coupling, Energetics, and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions: The 2001 NCAR-sponsored CEDAR workshop was attended by over 300 scientists and students and was held in association with the international Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics. Geophysical Turbulence Program: In 2001 the GTP hosted a workshop on Fronts in Scalar and Vector Geophysical Fields. The turbulent transport of fields, both scalar and vector, is ubiquitous in various branches of the atmospheric, geophysical, and astrophysical sciences. This workshop brought together 43 participants from 27 institutions for a three-day series of introduc- tory lectures, 20 invited talks, and opportunity for extended interactions among the participants. Mesoscale Modeling Workshops: The annual MM5 tutorials and annual MM5 workshops attracted record numbers of participants in both 2000 and 2001. New this year will be a week-long plenary Weather Research and Forecasting meeting scheduled for August 2001. The meeting will include the second WRF Model Users Workshop, a planning meeting, the WRF science board meeting, a land-surface modeling workshop, and a one-day WRF tutorial. Colloquium on Collaboratories: A special two-day colloquium featured presentations by leaders of the university community involved in the development of collaboratories or electronic workspaces for collaborative work. Integrating Research and Education: Jointly sponsored by NSF and NCAR,The Role of the Research Institution workshop drew over 40 participants from postsecondary and K-12 educational institutions in January 2001 to discuss the special contributions to be made by research institutions such as NCAR. DLESE Community Leadership Workshop: Held in July 2000, this was the first large community meeting to introduce the Digital Library for Earth System Education to the broader geoscience education community and provide the opportunity for large-scale community input into the design and construction of DLESE. Roughly 125 Earth science educators and technology experts from all educational levels attended. This workshop introduced them to the accomplishments thus far in designing and constructing DLESE, solicited input on new directions and priorities, and recruited participants.

VII.VII. MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT INFORMATIONINFORMATION

ection II provides the context for management A. Management Roles activities at UCAR and NCAR and describes S ma n a g e m e n t ’ s philosophy and objectives aimed at ensuring excellence, effi c i e n c y , and fiscal responsibility. 1. NSF This section describes the functional management, oversight, and administrative support of NCAR. Participants NSF has three primary roles: oversight of NCAR, in the process include the universities, NSF, the UCAR allocation of resources to NCAR, and review of NCAR me m b e r s ’ representatives, the Board of Trustees, the and UCAR. These activities are carried out through a UCAR president and vice-presidents and their depart- cooperative agreement with UCAR to manage and ments, and the NCAR director, division directors, operate the center. section heads, and scientists. Each of these contributes to the leadership, management, and/or oversight of In addition to these primary roles, NSF approves NCAR, defining and revising the UCAR and NCAR certain UCAR policies (including policies related to missions and priorities; developing, revising, and imple- human resources and intellectual property), the annual menting policies and program plans; allocating NCAR program plan and specified changes to it (such resources; directing activities; and reviewing the results. as reprogramming at dollar amounts above certain

Figure 27. UCAR members’ representatives and a number of UCAR/NCAR staff at the October 2000 annual meeting

57 MANAGEMENT INFORMATION

thresholds), proposals to be funded by other agencies, NCAR scientific division has an advisory panel com- and formal agreements and commitments entered into posed largely of university faculty. As indicated in the by UCAR. In the spirit of the cooperative agreement recent divisional review documents (http://www. between UCAR and NSF, there is strong and regular ncar.ucar.edu/review01), university faculty and stu- interaction among UCAR and NCAR management and dents are involved in a significant fraction of NCAR NSF about such matters as the UCAR and NCAR mis- activities as collaborators and/or users of NCAR serv- sions; strategic plans, goals, and priorities; and ices, facilities, and models. Finally, UCAR administrative issues. There is also very close coordi- administration consults frequently with its counterparts nation on special issues such as the procurement of the in the universities on matters such as salaries, invest- advanced research computer system and the HIAPER ment policy, and information technology. aircraft. Interactions occur at all levels and across the NSF directorates as appropriate, but the closest interac- 3. UCAR Trustees tions occur with the Division of Atmospheric Sciences (A TM) of the Geosciences Directorate on programmatic The UCAR Board of Trustees (Otis Brown, matters and the Division of Grants and Ag r e e m e n t s University of Miami, chair) has fiduciary, fiscal, and (DGA) on financial and administrative issues. NSF legal responsibility for all UCAR activities and final of ficials regularly participate in all members and authority to manage the programs and business of the trustees meetings and discussions and appropriate corporation. The trustees recruit, appoint, and evaluate committee meetings, such as the Audit and Finance, the performance of the president of UCAR. They also Personnel, and University Relations Committees. Th e advise on any issues involving NCAR, including but primary point of contact in ATM for UCAR/NCAR not limited to the development of program plans and issues is Clifford Jacobs, head of the UCAR and Lower allocation of resources. Atmospheric Facilities Oversight Section.

2. UCAR Members and the University Board of Tru s t e e s Community Otis Brown, University of Miami, Rosenstiel Scho o l The UCAR members bring the interests and needs Richard Anthes, UC A R of the university community to bear through several governance mechanisms. They elect the UCAR Board Leo Donner, Princeton University of Trustees, review UCAR programs, consider criteria David Houghton, University of Wisconsin at Madison for UCAR membership and other formal affi l i a t i o n s , Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland at College Park admit and renew members and affiliates, advise the president regarding university-UCAR relations, and Charles Kennel, Scripps Institution of Oceanograp h y approve any amendments to the UCAR corporate Paola Malanotte-Rizzoli, Ma s s a c husetts Institute of bylaws. Perhaps most important, the member institu- Tech n o l o g y tions provide a network of university scientists, Ronald McPherson, American Meteorological Society educators, and administrators who serve as advisors, reviewers, collaborators, advocates, and colleagues. Julia Nogues-Pae g l e , University of Utah Ma r y Jo Richardson, Texas A&M University Through various formal and informal channels, the David Skaggs, Center for Democrac y & Citizenship universities provide advice to NSF, the UCAR presi- Ronald Smith, Yale University dent and vice-presidents, the NCAR director and division directors, and the NCAR scientific and techni- Soroosh Sorooshian, University of Ar i z o n a cal staff. Representatives from the universities serve Dennis Thomson, Pe n n s y l v ania State University on advisory panels for the NCAR Scientific Computing Gabor Val i , University of Wyo m i n g Division and the Atmospheric Technology Division; these panels advise on the allocation of facilities, prior- Patricia Woo d w o r t h , University of Chicago ities, plans, and budgets for SCD and ATD. Each

58 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

Figure 28. UCAR trustees, June 2000. Standing, left to right: Otis Brown, Ron Smith, Len Fisk, Rick Anthes, Julia Paegle, Leo Donner, Lyn Hutton, Ron McPherson, Charlie Kennel, Gabor Vali, Conway Leovy. Seated, left to right: Mary Jo Richardson, Dennis Thomson, David Houghton. Not present: David Skaggs and Paola Rizzoli.

In addition to their formal responsibilities, the the president, proposing agenda items for members trustees play a key role in determining the overall meetings and suggesting activities and programs for direction of the corporation. They discharge their UCAR to undertake. The URC also reviews NCAR’s responsibilities through a set of committees that deal non-NSF funding and considers any charges of unfair with personnel, finance, and audit matters, and they competition by NCAR from the university community. review and approve certain policies before these are forwarded to NSF. Most important, the trustees bring wisdom and a range of perspectives to board delibera- University Relations Committee tions and provide guidance to UCAR management on Kelvin Droegemeier, University of Oklahoma policy positions; programmatic directions; issues af fecting the whole community (e.g., data, facilities, Eric Betterton, University of Ar i z o n a community models); and political, financial, and advo- Christopher Bretherton, University of Was h i n g t o n cacy matters. These responsibilities and roles are Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, University of Minnesota enacted at three regular meetings a year and in continuous formal consultations with the Executive Committee Matthew Hitchman, University of Wi s c o n s i n – M a d i s o n of the board and informal consultations as needed. Everette Joseph, Ho war d University 4. Committees of the UCAR Members Kenneth Pickering, University of Maryl a n d Patricia Reiff, Rice University The University Relations Committee helps main- Eugene Tak l e , Io wa State University tain good communication between the corporation and members. The URC acts as an advisory committee to Mi n g f ang Tin g , University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

59 MANAGEMENT INFORMATION

The Nominating Committee nominates candidates 5. UCAR President’s Office for UCAR trustees and trustees-at-large and slates of members for all members committees. The president (Richard Anthes) is the chief executive officer of the corporation and serves as an ex-offi c i o member of the Board of Trustees. He shares with the Nominating Committee NCAR director the primary responsibility for the over- Paola Malanotte-Rizzoli, Ma s s a c husetts Institute of sight of NCAR, defining and revising UCAR and Tech n o l o g y NCAR missions and developing and revising strategies and policies. The president advises on and approves (as Otis Brown, University of Miami, Rosenstiel Scho o l a trustee) NCAR program plans and may advise on the Frederick Carr, University of Oklahoma allocation of resources. The president provides over- John Merrill, University of Rhode Island sight of the implementation of policies and plans and Ma r y Jo Richardson, Texas A&M University responds to reviews of NCAR and UCAR. The president recruits, appoints, and reviews the The Membership Committee reviews applications performance of the UCAR vice-presidents for for new and renewing UCAR members and academic Corporate Af fairs and for Finance and Ad m i n i s t r a t i o n , aff i l i a t e s . the NCAR director, the director of the UCAR Office of Programs, and the director of Education and Outreach. He interacts regularly with each on matters related to Membership Committee programmatic strategies and planning, policy develop- Ma r y Jo Richardson, Texas A&M University ment and review, and a variety of personnel and operational matters. Keith Aldridge, York University An t h o n y Brazel, Arizona State University The Office of Corporate Af fairs (Jack Fellows, James Coakley, Or egon State University vice-president) directs a broad range of UCAR activities, including development of policies and programs; Arthur Few , Rice University university liaison services; and management of all Walter Robinson, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign activities involving the UCAR trustees, members’ re p - Robert Tal b o t , University of New Hampshire resentatives, and their committees, including SPEC. The office has responsibility for and oversight of devel- Sepideh Yal d a , Millersville University of Pennsylvania opment activities, which seek private funding for a variety of science, educational, and service programs; The Scientific Programs Evaluation Committee government relations, including coordination of advo- (SPEC) evaluates the quality of UCAR programs. cacy activities, information gathering, tracking of federal science budgets, and monitoring of legislation pertinent to the atmospheric sciences community; and Scientific Programs Evaluation Committee communications, including media and public relations, Robert Duce, Texas A&M University publications, and outreach. Susan Ave r y, University of Colorad o The Office of Finance and Administration (Kathryn Eric Barron, Pe n n s y l v ania State University Schmoll, vice-president) is the chief business and finan- Franco Einaudi, NA S A cial office of the corporation. The office has responsibility for and oversight of the development and imple- Chris Fai r a l l , NOA A mentation of all policies and procedures involving Daniel Jacob, Ha r var d University business and financial management, administration, Albert Semtner, Na val Postgraduate Scho o l human resources, commercial and investment banking, Lisa Sloan, University of Californi a , Santa Cruz tax-exempt financing, risk management, health and environmental services, and internal audit and legal services.

60 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

The two vice-presidents, the director and associate NC A R ’ s activities. The directors also formally and director of NCAR, and the director of the UCAR informally advise the UCAR president, the NCAR Of fice of Programs serve on the President’s Council as di r e c t o r , and the UCAR trustees on policies and prac- advisors and consultants to the president on a wide tices of the corporation. range of strategic and planning issues.

6. NCAR Director’s Office NCAR Director’s Ad v i s o r y Council

The director of NCAR (Timothy Killeen) is Decker Anstrom, Pr esident and CEO, Weather Channel responsible for the overall health, quality, and produc- Ma r y Catherine Bateson, Cl a r ence J. Robinson Professor of tivity of NCAR as a national center. He shares with Anthropology and English, Ge o r ge Mason University the NCAR division directors responsibility for the development of long-range strategies, plans, and pro- Lewis Branscomb, Professor Emeritus, Ke n n e d y School of Gov e rn m e n t ,H a rvar d University grams and for allocating resources provided by NSF, with advice from the NCAR Directors Committee, James Duderstadt, Pr esident Emeritus and University UCAR management, NSF, the new Director’s Ad v i s o r y Professor of Science and Engineering, University of Council, and the university community. The director Mi ch i g a n builds consensus among the division directors for William Frick, V i c e - P re s i d e n t ,I n d u s t ry Operations and changes in programmatic emphasis and for the alloca- Ge n e r al Counsel, American Petroleum Institute tion of special centralized funds that are awarded Pamela Matson, Department of Geological and following an internal, NCAR-wide competition. Th e Environmental Sciences and Institute for International NCAR associate director (Stephen Dickson) works S t u d i e s ,S t a n f o rd University closely with the NCAR director in developing long- range scientific, technical, and resource-allocation William Merrell, Senior Fellow and Pres i d e n t , H. John strategies for NCAR. He is responsible for the devel- Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the En v i r o n m e n t opment and preparation of planning documents through the NCAR Budget and Planning Office, which reports Berrien Moore, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and directly to him. The Budget and Planning Office pre- Sp a c e , University of New Hampshire pares the annual NCAR program plan, monitors Franklin Nutter, P re s i d e n t ,R e i n s u rance Association of budgets and expenditures of NSF and other agency Am e r i c a funds by NCAR programs, and advises the NCAR Paul Rutter, Senior Ad v i s o r , Group Tech n o l o g y , BP Tec hnical director and associate director on budget strategies and Ce n t r e, S u n b u ry - o n - T h a m e s ,E n g l a n d funding policy. John Shaw, Vi c e - P re s i d e n t / G e n e r al Manager, Opus 7. NCAR Division Directors No r t h w e s t John Snow, De a n , College of Geosciences, University of NCAR division directors are charged with the Ok l a h o m a development of scientific priorities and directions for Robert Wei s b u c h , Pre s i d e n t , Woo d r o w Wilson National their divisions, presenting new initiatives, and imple- Fe l l o wship Foundation menting divisional plans. They are responsible for divisional budgets, hiring and retaining staff, ensuring Edith Brown Wei s s , Fr ancis Cabell Brown Professor of overall quality of the work undertaken by the division, In t e r national Law, Ge o rg e t o wn University Law Scho o l and fostering cross-divisional communication and The Honorable Mark Udall, U.S . House of Repres e n t a t i v e s , co l l a b o r a t i o n . Co l o r ado 2nd District

Through the NCAR Directors Committee, the division directors also play the key role of helping the director establish strategies and plans for NCAR as a whole, providing broad advice on the quality of

61 MANAGEMENT INFORMATION

Figure 29. NCAR Directors Committee, June 2001. Left to right: Rick Anthes, Brant Foote, Jack Fellows, Rena Brasher-Alleva, Maurice Blackmon, Danny McKenna, Dave Carlson, Dale Kellogg, Steve Dickson, Michael Knölker, Katy Schmoll, Bob Harriss, Linda Mearns, Tim Killeen, Bob Roesch, Bob Gall, Al Cooper, and Al Kellie

8. NCAR Staf f the world applied. Through a lengthy and rigorous evaluation process, 11 new Scientists I were hired with NCAR scientific, technical, and administrative staff funding from the UCAR general fund, the NCAR play an essential role in providing input to the develop- di r e c t o r ’s office, and the NCAR divisions. ment and implementation of NCAR’s plans and directing activities of the NCAR program. Th r o u g h 9. Scientific Appointment Policies and various formal and informal mechanisms, they advise Procedures NCAR and UCAR management on priorities, plans, policies, and allocation of resources. The policies and practices dealing with scientific appointments and promotions are one of the most The NCAR scientific staff is the center’s funda- important management tools to ensure the quality and mental strength. In 2000, in response to a study of relevance of NCAR programs. Together NCAR man- NCAR scientist demographics, UCAR and NCAR agement and the senior scientific staff play a critical management decided to carry out an international leadership role in making scientific appointments that search for a number of Scientists I, in an effort to are of the very highest quality. address a growing imbalance in the scientist ranks and to provide an opportunity for increasing diversity. The scientific appointments ladder at NCAR has Absolute quality, rather than discipline, was the major four levels; Scientists I and II are term appointments, criterion. Approximately 170 scientists from around while Scientists III and senior scientists are appointments without term. The appointment policies and

62 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

procedures are thorough and demanding, and are Mechanisms for Internal Communication similar to those found in most universities. New appointments normally involve national searches. * Town meetings with all staff by UCAR president and NCAR Appointments to Scientist I and Scientist II are made director on at least an annual basis by the director of the home division or program, based * Meeting of NCAR director with all staff in each division upon advice of its senior scientific staff. Ad v a n c e m e n t twice annually from Scientist I to Scientist II requires an assessment at Regular division meetings with division director the divisional level after the third year of both the performance to date and the likelihood that the scientist Monthly meetings of UCAR Management Committee, NCAR Directors Committee, and President’s Council,*with Web will be successful in advancing to Scientist III and e-mail summaries posted for all staff (required within four years). Advancement to Scientist II and Scientist III is an up-or-out decision. Annual NCAR planning retreat for senior scientific staff and management Advancement or appointment to Scientist III or Annual updates of “Frequently Asked Questions” on the Web senior scientist is based on a process of confidential * ASP “s h o wcase seminars” attended by senior management review and recommendation that involves both the senior scientific staff and senior management through the * Regular meetings of NCAR Scientists Assembly to discuss issues of importance to scientific staff and to review the Appointments Review Group (ARG). New appoint- strategic plan ments follow national or international searches (the latter being common practice for senior scientists). Monthly senior scientist brown bag lunches with NCAR ARG voting members include the director and two sen- director and UCAR President ior scientists from each NCAR division and program; * Periodic brown-bag lunches involving the NCAR director the NCAR director and associate director are nonvoting and the Early-Career Scientist Assembly members. The ARG review process includes small * Daily e-mail news bulletins to all staff investigative subcommittees, which undertake in-depth * UCAR, NCAR, and Education and Outreach strategic plans assessments of the candidate’s qualifications; letters of and other strategic planning documents on Web reference from recognized leaders throughout the sci- (http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/review01) entific community; and extensive discussion and review by the full membership of the ARG. The AR G Distribution to all staff of Staff Notes Monthly and UCAR votes on each nomination, with a two-thirds vote Quarterly required for a favorable recommendation to the director * Early-Career Scientists Assembly forums attended by the of NCAR, who appoints Scientists III and senior scien- NCAR direc t o r , UCAR pres i d e n t , and other senior managers tists. The UCAR Board of Trustees authorizes senior and held on issues such as family friendliness, mentor- scientist appointments. All Scientists III and senior sci- ing, and promotion policies entists receive annual performance reviews and reviews Anonymous “Delphi” questions submitted by anyone, with every five years by the NCAR Directors Committee. answers made public to all staff * Staff surveys (e.g.,American Physical Society, UCAR 10. Review of NCAR and UCAR community survey, survey on work-life issues) Internal advisory and coordinating committees:Art Peer review of NCAR and UCAR is important for Committee, Education Committee, Exhibits Committee, maintaining excellence in our programs and involves Employee Activities Committee, Environmental several mechanisms. The most extensive is the NSF Stewardship Committee, Human Resources Advisory re v i e w , which occurs every five years (the period of the Committee, Policies and Procedures Committee, Safety NSF-UCAR cooperative agreement). This review con- Committee, Transportation Alternatives Program, Wellness sists of detailed reviews of the NCAR divisions Advisory Committee, and a number of committees on followed by an overall review of NCAR and UCAR topics related to information technology accomplishments and management (the present review). The management review is then followed by * Denotes activities that are new or enhanced since 1997. a proposal from UCAR to NSF to manage and operate

63 MANAGEMENT INFORMATION

NCAR for another five years under a new cooperative this plan, and the UCAR members at their 2001 annual ag r e e m e n t . meeting will focus on how the community can take part. NSF and the UCAR board contribute to the annu- The UCAR members review NCAR through the al NCAR program plan, a document required by NSF Scientific Programs Evaluation Committee. The SPEC that will, in effect, be the mechanism for implementing review is being closely coordinated with the NSF the strategic plan. The NCAR Directors Committee review described above. SPEC members participate in acts as the center-wide advisory panel and is tasked to the divisional reviews and in the management review complete, refine, and update the strategic plan, working along with the NSF panel. SPEC issues its own assess- closely with the UCAR board, NSF, and the university ment of the quality and relevance of NCAR programs co m m u n i t y . The NCAR director has also formed a new to the UCAR members. external advisory council, composed of senior members of the academic, public, and private sectors, and The non-NSF portion of the NCAR program is this group is charged with a detailed review of the reviewed according to the practices of the funding ce n t e r -wide strategic plan. The implementation of all agencies. Generally these activities are developed elements of the plan will involve regular reviews by through peer-reviewed proposals to these agencies. internal and external groups, based on predefined criteria to measure and monitor success. An important Response to the 1997 NCAR Review component of this recommendation was the need to improve communication within NCAR; activities in The last NSF management review of NCAR and response to this component are described in the UCAR took place in 1997. Many of the recommenda- response to the next recommendation. tions made by the NSF management review panel are addressed implicitly throughout this document. Below Re c o m m e n d a t i o n : The panel recommended an are summaries of the specific recommendations and expanded series of activities to improve communica - actions taken in response to them. tions with respect to UCAR and NCAR vision, missions, goals, and management decisions. Recommendation: The panel recommended that NCAR/UCAR “institute a regular and tasked advisory Re s p o n s e : As an integral part of the recent NCAR panel review at the Center level” to integrate the strategic planning process, management and the scien- strategic views developed at the divisional level, tific staff extensively examined the mission and goals me a s u r e the success of integrating those views, addres s of the organization. Virtually all scientific staff partici- critical institutional issues, and communicate to NSF, pated in related discussions of planned and current the UCAR board, and staff. activities and new directions for the orga n i z a t i o n . There are numerous mechanisms in place to communi- Re s p o n s e : Shortly after the 1997 review, all cate with staff, many of them new since the 1997 NCAR divisions established advisory panels. Th e s e review (see box). We continue to work more diligently panels provide input into the divisions’programs and to communicate and listen to staff concerns and issues, plans, which is communicated to the NCAR Directors with emphasis on cross-cutting programs, mentoring, Committee and incorporated into NCAR-wide strategic career development, and training. planning. With the arrival of the new NCAR director in June 2000, NCAR has undertaken an extensive year- Recommendation: The panel recommended that long process of strategic planning. Robert Harriss, UCAR and NCAR management develop, articulate, and director of the Environmental and Societal Impacts implement a strategic vision and plan for service and Group, became associate director for strategic plan- ou t r each programs “to determine the optimum way to ning, charged with coordinating division program plans utilize emerging information management technolo - and developing new initiatives and directions for the gies” for community interactions and support in the institution. The UCAR board and the NCAR scientific ar eas of software development, data provision, and st a f f and management have had extensive input into facility access.

64 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

Re s p o n s e : In the three years since the last NSF robust, flexible set of software tools to enhance ease re v i e w , state-of-the-art information technologies have of use, performance, portability, interoperability, and become even more important to the scientific enter- reuse in Earth system models. prise. Since 1997, NCAR and UCAR have taken significant strides in employing scientific, technical, • UC A R ’ s Digital Library for Earth System Education and business information systems for research, educa- Program Center, developed by the geosciences com- tion, and administration, although there is still much mu n i t y , provides support to the emerging national for us to do. digital library effort. DLESE develops and maintains the technical infrastructure of the library and NCAR has developed a strategic plan for high- coordinates community efforts to produce, share, and performance, end-to-end simulation which involves the assess on-line, inquiry-based instructional materials. extensive use of modern information technologies to DLESE will provide access to high-quality educa- support the service and outreach mission of the center tional materials; data sets, interfaces, and tools to use (collaboratories, software frameworks, visualization, the data; and communication networks for the Earth mass storage systems, community data portals, etc.). system education community.

The following are some activities undertaken in the Recommendation: The panel recommended a past three years in the area of information technology: reassessment of the alignment between the proper rol e of NCAR in the educational domain and NSF’s stated • The UCAR-wide Information Technology Council emphasis on systemic initiatives. (ITC) was established in 1997. Response: In recent years UCAR has placed an • The UCAR information technology strategic plan increased emphasis on education and outreach. UCAR was published in 1998 (http://www.fin.ucar.edu/ created an Office of Education and Outreach to coordi- itc_external/ITCStrategicPlan.html). nate its many activities in this area and give them greater visibility. Under the leadership of the director • IT advisory committees were appointed in 1998. of the Office of Education and Outreach, Roberta These include Computer Security, Desktop Systems, Johnson, an advisory group developed a strategic plan Multimedia, Network Coordination, and the Web to coordinate existing education programs and plan for Advisory Group. These very active committees future services and activities. The plan, approved by report to the ITC. the UCAR trustees in June 2001, can be found at http://ncar.ucar.edu/review01. This plan is consistent • A UCAR Web strategic plan (http://www.ucar.edu/ with NSF’s strategic emphasis on the integration of sci- wag/strat_plan/index.html and http://www.ucar.edu/ ence and education as well as the NSF systemic wag/strat_plan/StrategyIdeas.htm) outlines how the in i t i a t i v e s . community can locate and share in UCAR’s vast Web resources, including access to people, informa- Re c o m m e n d a t i o n : The panel rec o m m e n d e d tion, real-time and historical data, simulations, and that NCAR continue to encourage cros s - d i v i s i o n a l se r v i c e s . interactions.

• A data management working group has developed The 1997 review panel found “clear evidence of a strategic plan (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/dmwg/) pr oductive cross-divisional interdi s c i p l i n a r y work at to organize UCAR’s distributed data resources NCAR,” recognized the challenge of facilitating cros s - cohesively and provide an interface with external divisional science in a discipline-oriented culture, and community efforts in the geosciences and education. encouraged NCAR and UCAR to “re-examine their strategic plans annually to ensure that these prog r a m s • NCAR is leading NASA’s Earth System Model ar e encouraged and facilitated at NCAR.” Framework, a multi-institutional project to develop a

65 MANAGEMENT INFORMATION

Re s p o n s e : Many examples of cross-divisional community impact and scientific leadership that are activities have been reported throughout this document. em e r ging in the areas of community modeling and In the current strategic planning process, NCAR placed information/collaboration technologies.” even greater emphasis on such activities. All of the proposed new initiatives are cross-divisional and Re s p o n s e : The new strategic planning process interdisciplinary in nature, and several of the new explicitly recognizes that NCAR needs to be agile and Scientist I hires this year hold joint appointments in flexible to respond to emerging scientific opportunities. two divisions. The effectiveness of cross-divisional A commitment to this concept is one of the stated val- interactions is an important criterion in awarding funds ues of the center in the plan. The new thrust areas (for from the NCAR Director’s Opportunity Fund, a fund to example, biogeosciences, assessment sciences, and data encourage and support new initiatives. To strengthen assimilation research) are all exciting emerging areas in the interdivisional efforts, the NCAR director has the geosciences. NCAR scientists will continue to par- roughly tripled the size of the annual opportunity fund ticipate in the development and implementation of and has devoted a significant portion of core funds to a major programs in the United States and internationally set of interdivisional projects called for in the strategic (e.g., U.S. Weather Research Program, Climate plan. NCAR has an annual retreat process in place to Variability and Prediction for the 21st Century, U.S. regularly re-examine its strategic plan. Global Change Research Program, NSF’s Information and Technology Research and Biocomplexity in the Re c o m m e n d a t i o n : The panel recommended that Environment programs, NASA’s Earth System Model NCAR include in its strategic planning an approach to Framework, ACE-Asia, and COSMIC). scientific evaluation of the Climate System Model (now the CCSM). With respect to the HAO comments, HAO has pursued a variety of opportunities to increase its com- Re s p o n s e : The June 1998 special issue of the munity impact and to exert leadership. These have Journal of Climate included papers describing the evalu- refocused and strengthened the HAO program and ation of the CCSM. Sophisticated quantitative influenced priority setting in NSF’s and NASA’s strate- diagnostic packages at NCAR and DOE’s Program for gic planning, namely in the recent Decadal Survey for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provide Astronomy and Astrophysics, in which the HAO direc- extensive validation of CCSM and other climate models. tor chaired the Solar Panel (http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/ review01). With widespread support and participation by the broader community, much progress has been made on HAO has developed a long-term plan for its upper the CCSM since the 1997 review, and much of this atmosphere Terrestrial Impacts of Solar Output section progress has occurred through the careful and thorough and has started implementing it. The modernization of evaluation of the CCSM results. Every year NCAR the existing modeling codes, in terms of physical or ganizes a week-long workshop to discuss the CCSM descriptions as well as recoding for parallel machines, results and future directions; 260 scientists participated is well under way. As described on page 43, a new in the June 2001 workshop and showed many results model that will treat the whole atmosphere in a physi- that illuminated both the strengths and weaknesses of cally consistent way (WACCM) is already giving first the CCSM. results. The coupling of the model with magnetospheric models is being pursued through collaborations Re c o m m e n d a t i o n : The panel noted that “the in two big community modeling projects, one under establishment of appropriate balance with NCAR’s the leadership of T. Gombosi (University of Michigan) overall program req u i r es continuous dynamic adjust - and the other with the Boston Science and Tec h n o l o g y ment to emerging scientific opportunities.” Ce n t e r .

The panel also made specific ref e r ence to the High HA O ’ s efforts with the solar physics community to Altitude Observa t o r y (HAO) and the need for it to take realize the Solar Magnetism Initiative (SMI), a compre- advantage of “significant opportunities for increa s e d hensive solar modeling and data analysis effort, began

66 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

with a proposal presented to NSF in the fall of 1997. While this effort has not seen funding yet, it continues Table 2 to be on the agenda for future program development. Growth in Demand for UCAR Financial and SMI has been endorsed by two academy studies, most Administrative Support recently the decadal Survey for Astronomy and FY 1987–2000 Astrophysics. Given the likelihood that an Ad v a n c e d It e m s FY 1987 FY 2000 Technology Solar Telescope will be built within this decade, with HAO playing a significant role, the need Prime Contracts & Coop. Ag r e e m e n t s 4 26 8 for SMI to back up the new instrumental capabilities is Active Interagency Agreements 51 22 0 stronger than ever. Letters of Credit 2 17 Subcontracts and Purchase Orders 4, 6 7 6 7, 7 1 1 Fi n a l l y , HAO has taken a lead role in the SunRise ef fort. HAO is running one of the Precision $ Value of Subcontracts and POs $1 5 M $42M Photometry Solar Telescopes on Mauna Loa and is Contract-Required Financial Reports 8 41 5 leading the data analysis efforts to make these impor- Accounts Receivable Invoices 70 6 1, 3 0 4 tant data available to the community. Ad m i n . Computing Users 96 44 5 Total UCAR , UO P , & NCAR Staff 79 1 1,215 B. Recent Management Accomplishments a “clean” opinion, i.e., they have judged UCAR’s UCAR and NCAR have a long tradition of fiscal accounting system, processes, and execution to be with- responsibility and administrative innovation, including out any major flaws. In FY 1999, the outside auditors improvement and automation of management and recommended to NSF that UCAR be designated a “low- administrative processes. In addition, we have reorga n - risk auditee” under the provisions of OMB Circular ized and refocused our efforts to respond to the A-133, which is a reflection of the quality of UCAR’s changing requirements and needs of the research pro- accounting practices and internal controls. gram. This has allowed us to keep pace with the enormous growth in administrative demands in recent Property Management years (see box), providing a high level of service to NCAR technical staff while at the same time ensuring We have developed a property management system that we adhere to all applicable rules and regulations. that NSF has recommended to other institutions as a This has been accomplished with minimal staff increas- model system. We take a proactive approach—we con- es, so that we are able to maintain overhead rates that duct a 100% physical inventory on a biennial basis and are equal to, or in many cases less than, major universi- have an active network of local property administrators ties. The following examples highlight some of our throughout the organization who ensure that property is achievements and actions. properly received, tagged, and inventoried.

1. Fiscal Stewardship Inspector General Au d i t s

Audit History The NSF inspector general (IG) has conducted a number of audits of UCAR over the past several years; An independent auditor has reviewed UCAR’s finan- none has resulted in significant findings. The NSF IG cial statements for the past 40 years. Without exception, frequently cites UCAR as a model of good fiscal man- the independent accounting firm has always given UCAR agement.

67 MANAGEMENT INFORMATION

2. Financing Innovation diversity broadly defined. The task force presented recommendations on recruiting and mentoring to the UCAR/NCAR has utilized tax-exempt bond Pr e s i d e n t ’ s Council in 2000, which the council endorsed. financing since 1989, when we financed two state-of- As a consequence, the UCAR General Fund is contribut- the-art Cray computers that NSF was not able to fund ing to the salary of the recently hired NCAR Scientists I, di r e c t l y , thereby serving over 1,000 community users. and Human Resources has expanded UCAR’s recruit- We were also able to acquire the Foothills Laboratory ment activities to encourage more diversity in hiring. complex using bond financing, meeting our space The task force’s recommendation on mentoring was con- needs and saving money by avoiding having to lease sistent with the recommendations from the APS review, commercial property. We plan to use bond financing to and Human Resources, under the direction of the construct an addition to the Foothills complex, begin- Pr e s i d e n t ’ s Council, is creating programs for career ning in FY 2002, in order to ease overcrowding and development, mentoring, employee communication, and vacate leased space. We have also used bond proceeds management development. The UCAR Management to fund state-of-the-art networking and data communi- Committee and the NCAR Directors Committee have cations that link the NCAR facilities in Boulder and both been involved in this initiative. The task force and allow more effective interaction with university Human Resources have also been reviewing practices researchers. Bond proceeds are also used to acquire and policies at UCAR that affect the work environment equipment that the government does not have the (including family-friendly issues). Human Resources is resources to fund immediately, such as a satellite data surveying employees on work-life issues during the receiver that supports multiple agencies and programs. summer of 2001. The results will be used to help Because of our history and reputation in the bond mar- address issues such as day care and sick leave, some of ket, we are able to get funds at very low interest rates. which were raised by the AP S . For example, our interest rate for FY 2001 is 3.375%. 4. Information Technology 3. Human Resources Information Technology Council American Physical Society Review In 1997, the UCAR president established the ITC In 2000, UCAR and NCAR invited a review team to coordinate information technology efforts across the from the APS Committee on the Status of Women in or ganization, thereby eliminating duplication, promot- Physics to evaluate our efforts to attract and retain women ing coordinated planning and budgeting, and providing scientists. The APS did not find disparities in many of the a mechanism to ensure that the latest advances are areas identified in its well-publicized MIT study (e.g., incorporated in hardware and software procurement salaries, office, and lab space) but did voice concerns about and software development. The ITC, made up of rep- inequities in policy interpretation, family-friendly issues resentatives from all parts of the institution, developed (e.g., maternity/paternity/elder-care leave, day care) and the a strategic plan (http://www.fin.ucar.edu/itc). The ITC lack of an organized mentoring system. As a result of the has fostered the development of orga n i z a t i o n - w i d e APS report, UCAR and NCAR management is examining policies in computer security, networking protocols, our policies regarding family care leave. We have also and centralized software licensing, and has also provid- started a mentoring program that will pair young scientists, ed the impetus for a sophisticated multimedia female and male, with more-senior advisors. presentation capability at all UCAR facilities.

Diversity Task Force Year 2000 Planning

The Diversity Task Force was formed in 1999 to UCAR and NCAR took a proactive approach to the review diversity issues throughout UCAR. The task Y2K challenge, involving a senior-level oversight force is addressing the recommendations of the AP S group and an ad hoc management team that ensured re v i e w , but its focus is on all UCAR employees and that all UCAR and NCAR mission-critical systems

68 UCAR MANAGEMENT OF NCAR SCIENCE, FACILITIES, EDUCATION AND SERVICE

were Y2K compatible. This effort was completely suc- 5. Physical Plant cessful, with no impact to the services we provide to the university community. UCAR/NCAR has the privilege of occupying a national architectural treasure, the I.M. Pei–designed Boulder Research and Administrative Network Mesa Lab. The Mesa Lab was dedicated in 1967. We take our responsibilities seriously and were concerned UCAR/NCAR was a leader in fostering BRAN. when our flagship building began showing its age. In An unprecedented collaboration involving the city of consultation with Pei, we attempted to preserve the Bo u l d e r , the University of Colorado, and the Depart- original design while updating it for the realities of the ment of Commerce Boulder laboratories resulted in an scientific enterprise today. We proposed a major refur- un d e r ground fiber-optic network extending 11 miles. bishment to NSF and have received a total of $12 The network cost only $1.5 million, thanks to delicate million to accomplish it. The project involves resurfac- negotiations that resulted in the city of Boulder ing and repair work to the main drive and front door, providing free access to conduits already in place, refurbishment and redesign of the tree plaza, and exten- significantly reducing the out-of-pocket costs for the sive utility upgrades. We are incorporating the latest participants. The BRAN capability has dramatically health and safety standards, including the requirements enhanced data transmission throughout Boulder and, of the Americans with Disabilities Act, in the process. most important, has facilitated research among the two major Boulder UCAR/NCAR sites, the University of Colorado, and NOAA.

Corporate Technology Training Center

Based on a recommendation from the ITC, UCAR established the CTTC, a computer training facility that provides an important resource for UCAR/NCAR employees and university researchers. With 24 work- stations and multimedia projection capability, the CTTC allows NCAR scientists and software engineers to be trained on the latest software technology at a significantly lower cost and higher retention than conventional off-site training. It also provides a mechanism for community scientists to learn how to best utilize NCAR-developed atmospheric models and te c h n o l o g y .

VIII.VIII. SUMMARYSUMMARY ANDAND LOOKLOOK TOTO THETHE FUTUREFUTURE

ith 40 years of success behind us and a Rigorous and quantitative environmental findings will wealth of intellectual challenges ahead, be needed in the public and private sectors, including WUCAR and NCAR remain productive and in the areas of agriculture, space, energy , water, trans- vibrant organizations. During the past year NCAR, portation, health, and emergency management. Many UO P , and E&O have been developing strategic plans, new partnerships will be needed to ensure that the with major involvement from the university communi- appropriate mix of advances in basic research, model- ty . The UCAR Members’Fora in 1999 and 2000 and ing, observational systems, information technologies, the community survey were focused on challenges and and the social sciences is brought to bear on the most opportunities for the atmospheric and related sciences critical problems. The universities, UCAR and NCAR, and provided a foundation for the strategic planning and NSF must be the intellectual leaders of this nation- activities. The newly developed strategic plans for al effort, working with our counterparts in industry, NCAR, Education and Outreach, and end-to-end high- government, and the international community. We must performance simulation will set the stage for the next ensure that the intellectual and human resources and decade of research. An aggressive recruitment strategy the observational and computational capabilities are is refilling the ranks of NCAR’s scientific staff with adequate to identify and solve the most critical prob- new talent and diversity. The productivity and morale lems. And we must ensure that successes in of the scientific staff remain high, and we continue to understanding are translated quickly and effectively to focus intently on its twin roles of leadership and serv- meet the needs of society. ice to the university community. Significant enhancements in the computational and observational UCAR and NCAR must—and will—meet these infrastructure for the field are well under way. challenges by stretching the intellectual envelope, by Technology transfer programs are flourishing, and a contributing to the development of a diverse workforce responsive and fiscally sound management process is capable of generating and using new scientific knowl- in place. edge about the Earth system, and by nourishing existing and new partnerships with universities and All of these developments are clearly needed for other public and private institutions. the next few decades. With the global population in 2070 projected to be 9 billion, the effects of humans on the environment, and vice versa, will be far more pervasive, complex, and substantial than today. NCAR and UCAR must play a leading role in gaining new knowledge about the Earth system, thereby helping to inform societal decision making with sound science.

IX. FINANCIALFINANCIAL INFORMATIONINFORMATION

A. NCAR Budget History NSF Special Funds consist of deployment funding for field support costs and research grant funding for NC A R ’ s NSF funding history for the previous special programs. Certain NSF Special funded items three years (FY 1998, 1999, 2000) is presented in Tab l e are listed separately in the table. In FY 1999 and 3 below. The table represents new funding received FY 2000 (and continuing in FY 2001), NSF has provid- during each fiscal year and does not represent expendi- ed funding for major refurbishment of the 35-year-o l d tures in that year. NCAR receives NSF funding in two Mesa Laboratory. A total of $12 million is being pro- ways: (1) NSF Regular funding through an annual provided for this purpose. Also, in FY 2000, NSF has gram plan target, and (2) NSF Special funding through provided the first installment toward the purchase, a separate allocation and grant process. modification, and instrumentation of a mid-sized jet aircraft, the High-Performance Instrumented Ai r b o r n e The NSF Regular Funds consist of base and Platform for Environmental Research, or HIAPER. focused program funding, with a separate allocation for the Climate Simulation Laboratory. NSF Core Program Funding represents NCAR’s more flexible general budget. Focused Program funding supports the U.S. Global Change Research Program and High- Performance Computing and Communication Program.

73 FINANCIAL INFORMATION

Table 4 presents a three-year expenditure history of all NCAR programs, including both NSF and non-NSF fund sources.

NSF program expenditures averaged 66.4% of total NCAR expenditures over this three-year period. An n u a l expenditures are not equal to funding on a fiscal-year basis, because the period of performance for much of the funding spans more than one fiscal year.

74 AppendixAppendix AA

AppendixAppendix BB Outstanding Publication Awards: Winners and Nominees

One of the NSF guidelines for this review asked FY 1999 for a list of “most significant or relevant publications for the past three years.” We have chosen to meet this Hans De Sterck and Boon Chye Low (HAO) for guideline by listing the winners and nominees of the De Sterck, H., B.C. Low, and S. Poedts, 1998: prestigious UCAR Outstanding Publication Awards for Ionospheric, solar-system, and astrophysical plas- FY 19 9 8 – 2 0 0 0 . mas–Complex magnetohydrodynamic bow shock topology in field-aligned low-ß flow around a per- The Outstanding Publication Award is given for fectly conducting cylinder. Phys. of Plasmas, 5 (11 ) , published results of original research, review papers, or 40 1 5 - 4 0 2 7 . pedagogically oriented books that contribute to the atmospheric sciences. Publications are judged by a William Randel and Fei Wu (ACD) for panel of peers on four criteria: (1) importance of the subject to atmospheric science, broadly defined, includ- Randel, W.J., F. Wu, J.M. Russell III, and J. Wat e r s , ing work connecting atmospheric science with other 1999: Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric disciplines or matters of public policy; (2) importance constituents derived from UARS measurements. J. of the paper’s contribution to its specific subject area; Geophys. Res., 10 4 , 3711- 3 7 2 7 . (3) evidence of creativity and originality; and (4) clari- ty of exposition. William Collins (CGD) for Collins, W.D., 1998: A global signature of enhanced Be l o w , the winners, in bold font, and the nominees, short-wave absorption by clouds. J. Geophys. Res., in regular font, are listed for the past three years. 10 3 , 31669-31679.

FY 1998 Michael Glantz (ESIG) for Lynn Russell (ASP), Don Lenschow (MMM), and Glantz, M.H., 1996: Cu r rents of change: El Niño’s Krista Larson (ATD) for impact on climate and society. New York: Cambridge University Press, 194 pp. Russell, L.M., D.H. Lenschow, K.K. Laursen, P.B . Krummel, S.T. Siems, A.R. Bandy, D.C. Th o r n t o n , Wojciech Grabowski, Xiaoqing Wu, and Mitchell and T. S. Bates, 1998: Bidirectional mixing in an Mo n c r i e f f (MMM) for ACE 1 marine boundary layer overlain by a second turbulent layer. J. Geophys. Res., 10 3 (D13), 16411- Grabowski, W.W ., X. Wu, and M.W. Moncrieff, 16 4 3 2 . 1996: Cloud resolving modeling of tropical cloud systems during Phase III of GATE. Part I: Two - Byron Boville and Peter Gent (CGD) for dimensional experiments. J. Atmos. Sci., 53 (2 4 ) , 3684-3709. Part II: Effects of resolution and the Boville, B.A. and P.R. Gent, 1998: The NCAR cli- third spatial dimension. J. Atmos. Sci., 55 (21), 3264- mate system model, version one. J. Climate, 11, 3282. Part III: Effects of microphysical 1115 - 11 3 0 . parameterizations. J. Atmos. Sci., 56 , 2384-2402. Phillip Judge (HAO) for James Wilson and Daniel Megenhardt (RAP) for Wikstol, O., P.G. Judge, and V. Hansteen, 1998: On Wilson, J.W. and D.L. Meganhardt, 1997: inferring the properties of dynamic plasmas from Thunderstorm initiation, organization, and lifetime their emitted spectra: The case of the solar transition associated with Florida boundary layer converge n c e region As t r ophys. J., 50 1 (2), 895-910, Part 1. lines. Mon. Wea. Rev., 12 5 , 1507-1525.

77 APPENDIX B

FY 2000 Stanley Tri e r , Chris Davis, John Tuttle, and Wil l i a m Skamarock (MMM) for Roy Rasmussen, Jothiram Vivekanandan, and Tri e r , S.B., C.A. Davis, and W.C. Skamarock, 2000: Je ff r ey Cole (RAP) for Long-lived mesoconvective vortices and their envi- Rasmussen, R., J. Cole, R.K. Moore, and M. ronment. Part I: Observations from the central Kuperman, 2000: Common snowfall conditions asso- United States during the 1998 warm season. Mo n . ciated with aircraft takeoff accidents. J. Ai rc r a f t , 37 Wea. Rev., 12 8 , 3376-3395. Part II: Induced thermo- (1), 110 - 1 16. Rasmussen, R., J. Vivekanandan, J. dynamic destabilization in numerical simulations. Cole, B. Myers, and C. Masters, 1999: The estima- Mon. Wea. Rev., 12 8 , 3396-3412. tion of snowfall rate using visibility. J. Appl. Meteor., 38 (10), 1542-1563. Tammy Weckwerth (ATD) for Weckwerth, T., J. Wilson, and R. Wakimoto, 1996: David Charbonneau (ASP/HAO) and Tim Brown Thermodynamic variability within the convective (HAO) for boundary layer due to horizontal convective rolls. Charbonneau, D., T. Brown, D. Latham, and M. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124 (5), 769-784. Weckwerth T.M . , Ma y o r , 2000: Detection of planetary transits across a J. W . Wilson, R.M. Wakimoto, and N.A. Crook, 1997: sun-like star. As t r ophys. J., 529 (1), L45-L48, Part 2. Horizontal convective rolls: Determining the environmental conditions supporting their existence and Tom Hamill (ASP/MMM) and Chris Snyder (MMM) characteristics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125 (4), 505-526. fo r Weckwerth, T., T.W . Horst, and J.W. Wilson, 1999: An observational study of the evolution of horizontal Hamill, T. and C. Snyder, 2000: A hybrid ensemble convective rolls. Mon. Wea. Rev., 12 7 , 2160-2179. Kalman filter/3D-variational analysis scheme. Mo n . Wea. Rev., 12 8 (8), 2905-2919.

Didier Hauglustaine, Sasha Madronich, Brian Ridley, James Walega, Fred Eisele, David Tan n e r , Siri Flocke, Paul Ginoux, Richard Shetter, Chris Cantrell, and Elliot Atlas (ACD) for Hauglustaine, D., S. Madronich, B. Ridley, J. Walega, C. Cantrell, R. Shetter, and G. Hubler, 1996: Observed and model-calculated photostationary state at Mauna Loa Observatory during MLOPEX2. J. Geophys. Res., 101 (D9), 14681-14696. Hauglustaine, D., S. Madronich, B. Ridley, S. Flocke, C. Cantrell, F. Eisele, R. Shetter, D. Tan n e r , P. Ginoux, and E. Atlas, 1999: Photochemistry and budget of ozone during the Mauna Loa Observatory Photochemistry Experiment (MLOPEX 2). J. Geophys. Res., 10 4 , 30275-30307.

78 Appendix C PPatents and Disclosures by NCAR Scientists and Engineers,, 1997–2001

Web access to this proprietary information has been removed...

Confidential and Restricted

79 APPENDIX C

Web access to this proprietary information has been removed...

Confidential and Restricted

80 APPENDIX D

1997 Peer-Reviewed Publications of NCAR Baumann, K., E.J. Williams, J.A. Olson, J.W. Harder and F.C . Scientists and Staff Fehsenfeld, 1997: Meteorological characteristics and spatial extent of upslope events during the 1993 tropospheric OH Bold denotes NCAR author photochemistry experiment. J. Geophys. Res. 10 2 , 6199- Adams, J., W. Brainerd, J. Martin, B. Smith and J. Wag e n e r , 6213. 1997: Fortran 95 handbook. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press. Beine, H.J., D.A. Jaffe, D.R. Blake, E. At l a s and J. Harris, Adams, J. C. and P. N. Swarztrauber, 1997: SP E R E PA C K 1996: Measurements of PAN, alkyl nitrates, ozone, and hydro- 2.0: A model development facility. NCAR Technical Note carbons during spring in interior Alaska. J. Geophys. Res., NCAR/TN-436-STR, September. 10 1 , 12613-12619. Allen, J. S., P. R. Gent, and D. D. Holm, 1997: Anote on Kelvin Be r l i n e r , L. M., 1996: Hierarchical Bayesian time series mod- waves in balance models. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27 , 2060-2063. els, Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods. K. M. Hanson and R. N. Silver, Eds., Norwell, MA: Kluwer A c a d e m i c Anderson, W. D., V. Grubisic, and P. K. Smolarkiewicz, Publishers, 15-22. 1997: Performance of a massively parallel 3D non-hydrostatic atmospheric fluid model. Proceedings of the International Be r l i n e r , L. M., 1996; Chaos. In Encyclopedia of statistical Conference of Parallel and Distributed Processing Tec h n i q u e sc i e n c e s . S. Kotz, et. al., Eds., New York: Wil e y , 84-89. and Ap p l i c a t i o n s , PDPTA‘97, H. R. Arabnias, Ed., 645-651. Be r l i n e r , L. M., S. N. MacEachern, and C. S. Forbes, 1997: Anderson, W. D., and Smolarkiewicz, P. K., 1997: A co m p a r - Ergodic distributions of random dynamical systems. No n l i n e a r ison of high performance Fortran and message passing dynamics and time series: Building a bridge between the nat - parallelization of a geophysical fluid model. Elsevier Science, ural and statistical sciences, Fields Institute Communications. 384-391. C. D. Cutler and D. T. Kaplan, Eds., Providence, RI: Am e r i c a n Mathematical Society, 11, 171-185. Andreae, M.O., E. At l a s , H. Cachier, W.R. Cofer III, G.W. Harris, G. Helas, R. Koppmann, J.-P. Lacaux and D.E. War d , Birmili, W., F. Stratmann, A. Wie d e n s o h l e r , D. Covert, L. M . 1997: Trace gas and aerosol emissions from Savanna fires. Ru s s e l l and V. Berg, 1997: Determination of differential mobil- Chapter 27 in Biomass burning and global change, 1. J. S. ity analyser transfer functions using identical instruments in Levine, Ed., Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 278-295. series. Aerosol Sci. and Tec h . , 27 , 215-223. Andreae, M.O., E. At l a s , G. W. Harris, G. Helas, A. de Kock, Blyth, A. M., R. E. Benestad, P. R. Krehbiel, and J. Latham, R. Koppmann, W. Maenhaut, S. Manø, W. H. Pollock, J. 1997: Observations of supercooled raindrops in New Mexico Rudolph, D. Scharffe, G. 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Web e r , R. J., J. J. Marti, P. H. McMurry, F. L. Eisele, D. J. Wil b y , R. L., G. O’Hare, and N. Barnsley, 1997: The North Tan n e r , an d A. Jefferson, 1996: Measured atmospheric new Atlantic Oscillation and British Isles climate variability 1865- particle formation rates: Implications for nucleation mecha- 1995. Wea t h e r , 52 , 266-276. nisms. Chem. Engineering Comm., 15 1 , 53-64. Williams, B.P., and S. Tom c z y k , 1996: Magneto-optic Doppler Web e r , R.J., J.J. Marti, P.H. McMurry, F.L. Eisele, D.J. Tan n e r , analyzer: A new instrument to measure mesopause winds. an d A. Jefferson, 1997: Measurements of new particle forma- Applied Optics, 35 , No. 33, 6494-6503. tion and ultrafine particle growth rates at a clean continental site. J. Geophys. Res., 10 2 , 4375-4385. Williamson, D. L., 1997: Climate simulations with a spectral, semi-Lagrangian model with linear grids. In Numerical meth - Web s t e r , C.R., R.D. May, H.A. Michelsen, D.C. Scott, J.C. ods in atmospheric and ocean modelling, The Andre J. Robert Wilson, H.H. Jonsson, C.A. Brock, J.E. Dye, D. memorial volume. C. Lin, R. Laprise, and H. Ritchie, Eds., Ba u m g a r d n e r , D. W . Too h e y , L.M. Avallone, R. Stimpfle, J. P. Ottawa, Canada: Canadian Meteorological and Ko p l o w , J.J. Margitan, M.H. Proffitt, L. Jaegle, R.L. Herman, H. Oceanographic Society, 279-292. Hu, and M. Loewenstein, 1998: Evolution of HCL co n c e n t r a - tions in the lower stratosphere from 1991 to 1996 following the Wilson, J.W. and D.L. Meganhardt, 1997: Thunderstorm initi- eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25 (7), 995- ation, organization, and lifetime associated with Florida 99 8 . boundary layer convergence lines. Mon. Wea. Rev., 12 5 , 15 0 7 - 1 5 2 5 . Weckwerth, T.M., J.W. Wil s o n , R.M. Wakimoto, and N. A . Cr o o k , 1997: Horizontal convective rolls: Determining the Win k l e r , J. A., D. Tuc k e r , and A. K. Smith, 1996: Salaries and environmental conditions supporting their existence and char- advancement of women faculty in atmospheric science: Some acteristics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 12 5 (4), 505-526. reasons for concern. Bull. Am e r . Meteor. Soc., 77 , 473-490. Weil, J. C., L. A. Corio, and R. P. Brower, 1997: APDF disper- Wolde-Georgis, T. , 1997: Land, peasants and state in sion model for buoyant plumes in the convective boundary Ethiopia. Scandinavian Journal of Development Al t e r n a t i v e s , la y e r . J. Appl. Meteor., 36 , 982-1003. 16 (977), 335-349. Weisman, M. L., W. C. Skamarock, and J. B. Klemp, 19 9 7 : Yu, J., R. States, S.J. Franke, C.S. Gardner, and M. Hagan, The resolution dependence of explicitly modeled convective 1997: Observations of tidal temperature and wind perturba- systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 12 5 , 527-548. tions in the mesopause region above Urbana, IL. Ge o p h y s . Res. Letters, 24 (10), 1207-1210 Westphal, D. L., S. Kinne, P. Pilewskie, J. M. Alvarez, P. Minnis, D. F. Young, S. G. Benjamin, W. L. Eberhard, R. A. Yudin, V.A . , M.A. Geller, and B. V . Khattatov, 1997: Estimate Kropfli, S. Y. Matrosov, J. B. Snider, T. A. Uttal, A. J. of atmospheric dissipation derived from UARS/HRDI meas- He y m s f i e l d , G. G. Mace, S. H. Melfi, D. O’C. Starr, and J. J. urements. In NATO AS1 Series, I 50, Gravity wave processes: Soden, 1996: Initialization and validation of a simulation of cir- Their parameterization in global climate models. K. Hamilton, rus using FIRE-II data. J. Atmos. Sci., 53 , 3397-3429. Ed., New York: Springer-Verlag, 187-197. Wie d e n s o h l e r , A., D. Orsini, D.S. Covert, D. Coffmann, W. Zhang, C., D. A. Randall, C.-H. Moeng, M. Branson, K. A. Cantrell, M. Havlicek, F.J. Brechtel, L.M. Russell, R.J. Web e r , Mo y e r , and Q. Wang, 1997: A surface flux parameterization J. Gras, J.G. Hudson, and M. Litchy, 1997: In t e r c o m p a r i s o n based on the vertically averaged turbulence kinetic energy. study of the size dependent counting efficiency of 26 conden- Mon. Wea. Rev., 12 4 , 2521-2536. sation particle counters. Aerosol Sci. and Tec h . , 27 , 224-242. Zheng, J., A. J. Wei n h e i m e r , B. A. Ridley, S. C. Liu, G. W. Wig l e y , T. M. L., P. D. Jones, and S. C. B. Raper, 1997: Th e Sachse, B. E. Anderson, and J. E. Collins Jr., 1996: Analysis of observed global warming record: What does it tell us? small- and large-scale increases of reactive nitrogen observed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 94 , during the Second Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition. J. 83 1 4 - 8 3 2 0 . Geophys. Res., 10 1 , 28805-28816. Wikle, C. K., R. A. Madden, and T-C. Chen, 1997: Seasonal Zou, X., 1997: Tangent linear and adjoint of “on-off” processes variation of upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric equa- and their feasibility for use in four-dimensional variational data torial waves over the tropical Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 54 , assimilation. Tel l u s , 49 A , 3-31. 18 9 5 - 1 9 0 9 . Zou, X. and Y. -H. Kuo, 1996: Rainfall assimilation through an Wikstol, O., P.G. Judge, and V.H. Hansteen, 1997: Signatures optimal control of initial and boundary conditions in a limited- of acoustic and magnetic waves in solar and stellar coronae. domain mesoscale model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 12 4 , 2859-2882. Astrophys. J., 48 3 , 972-983. Wil b y , R. L., 1997: Nonstationarity in daily precipitation series: Implications for GCM downscaling using atmospheric circulation indices. Int’l J. Climatology, 17 , 439-454. Wil b y , R. L., H. Y. Dalgleish, and I. D. L. Foster, 1997: Th e impact of weather patterns on contemporary and historic catchment sediment yields. Earth Surface Processes and La n d o r m s , 22 , 353-363.

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1998 Peer-Reviewed Publications of NCAR Baumgardner, D., R. C. Miake-Lye, M. R. Anderson, and R. Scientists and Staff C. Brown, 1998: An evaluation of temperature, water vapor and vertical velocity structure of an aircraft contrail. J. Bold denotes NCAR author Geophys. Res., 103 (D8), 8727-8736. Ahn, B.H., A.D. Richmond, Y. Kamide, H.W. Kroehl, B.A. Baumgardner, D. and G. Raga, 1998: WMO workshop on the Emery, O. de la Beaujardiere, and S.I. Akasofu, 1998: An measurement of cloud properties for the forecasts of weather ionospheric conductance model based on ground magnetic and climate. WMP Report 30, Mexico City, Mexico, 403 pp. disturbance data, J. Geophys. Res., 103 (A7), 14769-14780. Berliner, L. M., J. A. Royle, C. K. Wikle, and R. F. Milliff, 1998: Alexander, M., C. Deser, and M. Timlin, 1998: The re-emer- Bayesian methods in the atmospheric sciences. Bayesian gence of SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean. J. Statistics, Vol. 6. J. M. Bernardo, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid, Climate, 12, 2419-2431. and A. F. M. Smith, Eds., New York: Oxford University Press, Alvarez, R. J., C. Senff, R. M. Hardesty, and D. Parrish, 1998. 83-100. Comparisons of airborne lidar measurements of ozone with Bernstein, B.C., T.A. Omeron, F. McDonough, and M.K. airborne in-situ measurements during the 1995 Southern Politovich, 1998: The relationship between aircraft icing and Oxidants Study. J. Geophys. Res., 103 (D23), 31155-31171. synoptic-scale weather conditions. Wea. and Forecasting, 12, Angevine, W. A., A. W. Grimsdell, L. M. Harten, and A. C. 742-762. Delany, 1998: The flatland boundary layer experiments. Bull. Bernstein, B.C., T.A. Omeron, M.K. Politovich, and F. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 419-431. McDonough, 1998: Surface weather features associated with Anthes, R., M. Exner and Y.-H. Kuo, 1998: GPS sounding of freezing precipitation and severe in-flight aircraft icing. Atmos. the atmosphere from Low Earth Orbit: Preliminary results and Res., 46, 57-73. potential impact on numerical weather prediction. Berresheim, H. and F. Eisele, 1998: Sulfur chemistry in the Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on East Asia Antarctic troposphere experiment: An overview of project and Western Pacific Meteorology and Climate, 16-18 May SCATE. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 1619-1627. 1996, Chungli, Taiwan. C.P. Chang, J.C.L. Chan and J.T Wang, Eds. Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Co., 17- Berresheim, H., J. Huey, R. Thorn, F. Eisele, D. Tanner, and 26 (562 pp. total in book). A. Jefferson, 1998: Measurements of dimethyl sulfide, dimethyl sulfoxide, dimethyl sulfone, and aerosol ions at Apel, E., J. Calvert, J. Greenberg, D. Riemer, R. Zika, T.E. Palmer Station, Antarctica. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 1629- Kleindienst, W.A. Lonneman, K. Fung, and E. Fujita, 1998: 1637. Generation and validation of oxygenated volatile organic carbon standards for the 1995 Southern Oxidants Study Betsill, M.M., M.H. Glantz, and K. Crandall, 1997: Preparing Nashville Intensive. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 22281-22294. for El Niño: What role for forecasts? Environment, 39 (10), 6- 13, 26-30. Apel, E., J. Calvert, D. Riemer, W. Pos, R. Zika, T. Kleindienst, W. Lonneman, K. Fung, E. Fujita, P. Shepson, T. Bilde, M., T. Wallington, C. Ferronato, J. Orlando, G. Tyndall, Starn, and P. Roberts, 1998: Measurements comparison of E. Estupiñan, and S. Haberkorn, 1998: Atmospheric chemistry oxygenated volatile organic compounds at a rural site during of CH2BrCl, CHBrCl2, CHBr2Cl, CF3CHBrCl, and CBr2Cl2. the 1995 SOS Nashville Intensive. J. Geophys. Res., 103 J. Phys. Chem. A, 102, 1976-1986. (D17), 22295-22316. Bluestein, H., E. Rasmussen, B. Davies-Jones, R. Wakimoto, Atkins, N.T. , R.M. Wakimoto, C.L. Ziegler, 1998: and M. L. Weisman, 1998: VORTEX workshop summary, 2-3 Observations of the Finescale Structure of a Dryline during December 1997, Pacific Grove, California. Bull. Amer. Met. VORTEX 95. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 525-550. Soc., 79, 1397-1400. Ball, S., A. Fried, B. Henry, and M. Mozurkewich, 1998: The Bogdan, T.J., D.C. Braun, B.W. Lites, and J.H. Thomas, hydrolysis of ClONO2 on sub-micron liquid sulfuric acid 1998: The seismology of sunspots: A comparison of time-dis- aerosol. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25 (17), 3339-3342. tance and frequency-wavenumber methods, Astrophys. J., 492, 379-389. Barnes, G., K.B. MacGregor, and P. Charbonneau, 1998: Gravity waves in a magnetized shear layer. Astrophys. J., Bonan, G. B., 1997: Effects of land use on the climate of the 498, L169-L172. United States. Climate Change, 37, 449-486 Baugh, W., F. Kruse, and W. Atkinson, Jr., 1998: Quantitative Bonan, G. B., 1998: The land surface climatology of the geochemical mapping of ammonium minerals in the southern NCAR Land Surface Model coupled to the NCAR Community Cedar Mountains, Nevada, using the airborne visible/infrared Climate Model. J. Climate, 11, 1307-1326. imaging spectrometer (AVIRIS). Remote Sens. Environ., 65, 292-308. Bonan, G. B., K. J. Davis, D. Baldocchi, D. Fitzjarrald, and H. Neumann, 1997: Comparison of the NCAR LSM land surface Baumgardner, D. and B. Gandrud, 1998: A comparison of model with BOREAS aspen and jack pine tower fluxes. J. the microphysical and optical properties of particles in an air- Geophys. Res., 102, 29065-29075. craft contrail and mountain wave cloud. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25 (8), 1129-1132. Botteheim, J., A. Guenther, P. Shepson, R. Steinbrecher, and W. Stockwell, 1998: Biogenic hydrocarbons in the atmospheric boundary layer – Preface. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 25463-25465.

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Boville, B. A. and P. R. Gent, 1998: The NCAR climate sys- Brune, W., I. Faloona, D. Tan, A. Weinheimer, T. Campos, B. tem model, version one. J. Climate, 11, 1115-1130. Ridley, S. A. Vay, J. E. Collins, G. W. Sachse, L. Jaegle, and D. J. Jacob, 1998: Airborne in-situ OH and HO2 observations Boville, B. A. and J. W. Hurrell, 1998: A comparison of the in the cloud-free troposphere and lower stratosphere during atmospheric circulations simulated by the CCM3 and CSM1. SUCCESS. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1701-1704. J. Climate, 11, 1327-1341. Bryan, F. O., 1998: Climate drift in a multicentury integration Bowling, D. R., A. A. Turnipseed, A. C. Delany, D. D. of the NCAR Climate System Model. J. Climate, 11, 1455- Baldocchi, J. P. Greenberg, and R. K. Monson, 1998: The 1471. use of relaxed eddy accumulation to measure the biosphere/atmosphere exchange of isoprene and other biological Bryant, D., E. Holland, T. Seastedt, and M. Walker, 1998: trace gases. Oecologia, 116 (3), 306-315. Analysis of litter decomposition in an alpine tundra. Can. J. Bot., 76, 1295-1304. Branstator, G. and S. E. Haupt, 1998: An empirical model of barotropic atmospheric dynamics and its response to tropical Burkholder, J. and J. Orlando, 1998: Rate coefficient upper forcing. J. Climate, 11 (10), 2645-2667. limits for the BrONO2 and CIONO2 + O3 reactions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3567-3569. B r a s s e u r, G., R. Cox, D. Hauglustaine, I. Isaksen, J. Lelieveld, D. H. Lister, R. Sausen, U. Schumann, A. Wahner, Campos, T., A. Weinheimer, J. Zheng, D. D. Montzka, J. G. and P. Wiesen, 1998c: European scientific assessment of the Walega, F. E. Grahek, S. A. Vay, J. E. Collins, Jr., L. O. Wade, atmospheric effects of aircraft emissions. Atmos. Environ., 32, G. W. Sachse, B. E. Anderson, W. H. Brune, D. Tan, I. 2329-2418. Faloona, S. L. Baughcum, and B. A. Ridley, 1 9 9 8 : Measurement of NO and NOy emission indices during SUC- Brasseur, G. P., D. A. Hauglustaine, S. Walters, P. J. CESS. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1713-1716. R a s c h , J . - F. Müller, C. Granier, and X.-X. Ti e , 1 9 9 8 b : MOZART, a global chemical-transport model for ozone and Cantrell, C., R. Shetter, J. Calvert, F. Eisele, and D. Tanner, related chemical tracers, 1. Model description. J. Geophys. 1997: Some considerations of the origin of nighttime peroxy Res., 103, 28265-28289. radicals observed in MLOPEX 2c. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 15899-15913. Brasseur, G., J. Kiehl, J-F. Müller, T. Schneider, C. Granier, X. Tie, and D. Hauglustaine, 1998a: Past and future Cantrell, C., A. Zimmer, and G. Tyndall, 1997: Absorption changes in global tropospheric ozone: Impact on radiative cross sections for water vapor from 183 to 193 nm. Geophys. forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3807-3810. Res. Lett., 24, 2195-2198. Brasseur, G., F. Lefèvre, and A. Smith, 1997: Chemical- Carbone, R. E., J. D. Tuttle, W. A. Cooper, V. Grubisic, and transport models of the atmosphere. Perspectives in W.-C. Lee, 1998: Tradewind rainfall near the windward coast environmental chemistry. D. L. Macadly, Ed., New York: of Hawaii. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126 (11), 2847-2863. Oxford Univ. Press, 369-399. Casini, R., 1998: Erratum: Application of the second-order Braun, D.C., C. Lindsey, Y. Fan, and M. Fagan, 1998: Seismic moments of polarized hydrogen lines to the investigation of Holography of Solar Ac t i v i t y . Astrophys. J., 50 2 , 968-980. pressure broadening and the motional stark effect. Astrophys. J., 492, 855. Braun, S., R. Rotunno, and J. B. Klemp, 1999: Effects of coastal orography on landfalling cold fronts. Part I: Dry, invis- ___, 1998: The effect of configuration mixing on the first-order cid dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 56 (4), 517-533. moments of polarized hydrogen lines. J. Mathematical Physics, 39 (9), 4284-4298. Bresch, J., R. J. Reed, and M. D. Albright, 1997: A polar low development over the Bering Sea: Analysis, numerical simu- ___, 1998: The second-order moments of pressure-broad- lation, and sensitivity experiments. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, ened hydrogen lines in the quasi-static approximation. 3109-3130. Astrophys. J., 498, 479-485. Briegleb, B. P. and D. H. Bromwich, 1998a: Polar radiation Charbonneau, P., S. To m c z y k , J. Schou, and M.J. budgets of the NCAR CCM3. J. Climate, 11, 1246-1269. Thompson, 1998: The rotation of the solar core inferred by genetic forward modeling. Astrophys. J., 496, 1015-1030. Briegleb, B. P. and D. H. Bromwich, 1998b: Polar climate simulation of the NCAR CCM3. J. Climate, 11, 1270-1286. Chen, L., J. London, and G. Brasseur, 1997: Middle atmospheric ozone and temperature responses to solar irradiance Brown, T.M. and J. Christensen-Dalsgaard, 1998: Accurate variations over 27-day periods. J. Geophys. Res., 1 0 2, determination of the solar photospheric radius. Astrophys. J., 29,957-29,979. 500, L195-L198. Chen, S.-J., Y.-H. Kuo, W. Wang, W.-K. Tao, and B. Cui, ___, R. Kotak, S.D. Horner, E.J. Kennelly, S. Korzennik, P. 1998: A modeling case study of heavy rainstorm along the Nisenson and R.W. Noyes, 1998: Exoplanets or dynamic Meiyu front. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2330-2351. atmospheres? The radial velocity and line shape variations of 51 Pegasi and t Bootis. Astrophys. J. Suppl., 117, 563-585. Cherington, M., D.W. Breed, P.R. Yarnell and W.E. Smith, 1998: Lightning injuries during snowy conditions. Br. J. Sports ___, R. Kotak, S.D. Horner, E.J. Kennelly, S. Korzennik, P. Med., 32, 333-335. Nisenson, and R.W. Noyes, 1998: A search for line shape and depth variations in 51 Pegasi and t Bootis. Astrophys. J., 494, L85-L88.

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Chin, T. M., R. F. Milliff, and W. G. Large, 1998: Basin-scale, Crum, T., R. E. Saffle, and J. W. Wilson, 1998: An update on high-wavenumber sea surface wind fields from a multi-resolu- the NEXRAD program and future WSR-88D support to oper- tion analysis of scatterometer data. J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., ations. Wea. Forecast., 13, 253-262. 15, 741-763. Dai, A., I. Fung, and A. D. Del Genio, 1997: Surface observed Clark, T. L., T. Keller, J. Coen, P. Neilley, H. Hsu, and W. D. global land precipitation variations during 1900-1988. J . Hall, 1997: Terrain-induced turbulence over Lantau Island: 7 Climate, 10, 2943-2962. June 1994 Tropical Storm Russ case study. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 1795-1814. Dai, A., K. E. Trenberth, and T. R. Karl, 1998: Global variations in droughts and wet spells: 1900-1995. Geophys. Res. Clarke, A., D. Davis, V. Kapustin, F. Eisele, G. Chen, I. Lett., 25, 3367-3370. Paluch, D. Lenschow, A. R. Bandy, D. Thornton, K. Moore, L. Maudlin, D. Tanner, M. Litchy, M. A. Carroll, J. Collins, G. Danabasoglu, G., 1998: On the wind-driven circulation of the Albercook, 1998: Particle nucleation in the tropical boundary uncoupled and coupled NCAR Climate System Ocean Model. layer and its coupling to marine sulfur sources. Science, 282, J. Climate, 11, 1442-1454. 89-92. Davis, D., G. Chen, P. Kasibhatla, A. Jefferson, D. Tanner, F. Clarke, A., J. Varner, F. Eisele, R. Mauldin, D. Tanner, and M. Eisele, D. Lenschow, W. Neff, and H. Berresheim, 1998: Litchy, 1998: Particle production in the remote marine atmos- DMS oxidation in the Antarctic marine boundary layer: phere: Cloud outflow and subsidence during ACE 1. J. Comparison of model simulations and field observations of Geophys. Res., 103, 16397-16409. DMS, DMSO, DMSO2, H2SO4(g), MSA(g), and MSA(p). J. Geophys. Res., 103, 1657-1678. Clyne, J., T. Scheitlin, and J.B. Weiss, 1998: Volume visual - izing high-resolution turbulence computations. Theoretical Dawson, C. W. and R. L. Wilby, 1998: An artificial neural net- and computational fluid dynamics. Heidelberg, Germany: work approach to rainfall-runoff modelling. H y d r o l o g i c a l Springer-Verlag 11: 195-211. Sciences J., 43, 47-66. Coffey, M., A. Goldman, J. Hannigan, W. Mankin, W. Delany, A. C. and S. R. Semmer, 1998: An integrated surface Schoenfeld, C. Rinsland, C. Bernardo, and D. Griffith, 1998: radiation measurement system. J. Ocean. Atmos. Tech., 15, Improved vibration-rotation (0-1) HBr line parameters for vali- 46-53. dating high resolution infrared atmospheric spectra DeMott, P. J., D. C. Rogers, S. M. Kreidenweiss, Y. Chen, C. measurements. J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer, 60, Twohy, D. Baumgardner, A. J. Heymsfield, and K. R. Chan 863-867. 1998: The role of heterogeneous freezing nucleation in upper Cohn, S.A., S.D. Mayor, C.L. Grund, T. Weckwerth, and C. tropospheric clouds: Inferences from SUCCESS. Geophys. Senff, 1998: The Lidars In Flat Terrain (LIFT) experiment. Res. Lett., 25 (9), 1387-1390. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79 (7), 1329-1343. de Pondeca, M., A. Barcilon, and X. Zou, 1998: An adjoint Collins, W. D., J. W. Wang, J. T. Kiehl, G. J. Zhang, D. I. sensitivity study of the efficacy of modal and non-modal per- Cooper, and W. E. Eichinger, 1997: Comparison of tropical tubations in causing model block onset. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, ocean-atmosphere fluxes with the NCAR Community Climate 2095-2118. Model CCM3. J. Climate, 10, 3047-3058. de Pondeca, M., A. Barcilon, and X. Zou, 1998: The role of Colucci, S. J., and D. P. Baumhefner, 1998: Numerical pre- wave breaking, linear instability and PV transports in model diction of the onset of blocking: A case study with forecast block onset. J. Atmos. Sci., 55 (17), 2852-2873. ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 773-784. Deser, C.and C. A. Smith, 1998: Diurnal and semidiurnal vari- Considine, J., B. E. Anderson, J. Barrick, and D. H. ations of the surface wind field over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Lenschow, 1998: Characterization of turbulent trasport in the J. Climate, 11, 1730-1748. marine boundary layer during flight 7 of PEM-Tropics A. J. Dessler, A., M. Burrage, J.-U. Grooss, J. Holton, J. Lean, S. Geophys. Res., 104 (D5), 5855-5863. Massie, M. Schoeberl, A. Douglass, and C. Jackman, 1998: Cornman, L.B., R.K. Goodrich and C.S. Morse, 1998: A Selected science highlights from the first 5 years of the Upper fuzzy-logic method for improved moment estimation from Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) program. Rev. of Doppler spectra. J. Atmos. and Oceanic Tech., 15 (6), 1288- Geophys., 36, 183-210. 1306. De Sterck, H., B.C. Low and S. Poedts, 1998: Ionospheric, Craig, S. G., K. J. Holmén, G. B. Bonan, and P. J. Rasch, solar-system, and astrophysical plasmas - Complex magnetohydrodynamic bow shock topology in field-aligned low-ß flow 1998: Atmospheric CO2 simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model 1. Mean around a perfectly conducting cylinder. Phys. of Plasmas, 5 fields and seasonal cycles. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 13213- (11), 4015-4027. 13235. Dickson, R. R., J. W. Hurrell, M. McCartney, H. L. Bryden, R. Cressie, N. and C. K. Wikle, 1998: The variance-based cross- Williams, and J. Marshall, 1998: The North Atlantic oscillation. variogram: You can add apples and oranges. Mathematical Chapter 5 of CLIVAR Implementation Plan, WCRP No. 103, Geology, 30 (7), 789-799. WMO/TD-No. 869, ICPO No. 14, 163-192. Donaldson, D., J. Orlando, S. Amann, G. Tyndall, R. Proos, B. Henry, and V. Vaida, 1998: Absolute intensities of nitric acid overtones. J. Phys. Chem. A, 102, 5171-5174.

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Doney, S. C., 1997: The ocean’s productive deserts. Nature, Fillion, L., and R. M. Errico, 1997: Variational assimilation of 389, 905-906. precipitation data using moist-convective parameterization schemes: A 1DVAR study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2917-2942. Doney, S. C., J. L. Bullister, and R. Wanninkhof, 1998: Climatic variability in upper ocean ventilation diagnosed using Flannery, B. P., H. Kheshgi, G. Marland, M. C. MacCracken chlorofluorocarbons. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1399-1402. (contributing author list includes T. M. L. Wigley, and 6 others), 1997: Geoengineering climate. Engineering response to Doney, S. C., W. G. Large, and F. O. Bryan, 1998: Surface global climate change: Planning a research and development ocean fluxes and water-mass transformation rates in the cou- agenda. R. G. Watts, Ed., Boca Raton, FL: Lewis Publishers, pled NCAR Climate System Model. J. Climate, 11, 379-427. 1420-1441. Flocke, F., A. Volz-Thomas, H-J. Buers, W. Pätz, H-J. 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He, 1999: Predictive skill pheric shortwave absorption in the NCAR Community Climate of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts Models 2 and 3: Comparison with monthly ERBE/GEBA during the 1997-98 El Nino episode and the 1998 La Nina measurements. Geophys. Res. Lett., 103, 8919-8925. onset. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc., 80 (2), 217-242. Baron, J. S., M. D. Hartman, T. G. F. Kittel, L. E. Band, D. S. Ojima, R. B. Lammers, 1998: Effects of land cover, water redistribution, and temperature on ecosystem processes in 1999 Peer-Reviewed Publications of NCAR Scientists the South Platte Basin. Ecological Appl., 8, 1037-1051. and Staff Barth, M. C. and A. T. Church, 1999: The regional and global Bold denotes NCAR author influence of sulfate aerosols from Mexico City and southeast China. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 30231-30239. Achatz, U. and G. W. Branstator, 1999: A two-layer model with empirical linear corrections and reduced order for studies Beig, G. and G. Brasseur, 1999: Anthropogenic perturba- of internal climate variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 3140-3160. tions of tropospheric ion composition. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1303-1306. Ahn, B.H., B.A. Emery, H.W. Kroehl, and Y. Kamide, 1999: Climatological characteristics of the auroral ionosphere in Berloff, P. S. and J. C. McWilliams, 1999: Large-scale, low- terms of electric field and ionospheric conductance, J . frequency variability in wind-driven ocean gyres. J. Phys. Geophys. Res., 104 (A5), 10031-10040. Oceanogr., 29 (8), 1925-1949, Part 2. Apel, E. J. Calvert, T. Gilpin, F. Fehsenfeld, D. Parrish, and Berloff, P. S. and J. C. McWilliams, 1999: Quasigeostrophic W. Lonneman, 1999: The Nonmethane Hydrocarbon dynamics of the western boundary current. J. Phys. Intercomparison Experiment (NOMIHICE): Task 3. J . Oceanogr., 29 (10), 2607-2634. Geophys. Res., 104, 26069-26086. Betsill, M.M. and R.A. Pielke, Jr., 1998: Blurring the bound- Asner, G. P., C. A. Wessman, and D. S. Schimel, 1998: aries: Domestic and international ozone politics and lessons Heterogeneity of savanna canopy structure and function from for climate change. Int’l Environmental Affairs, 10 (3), 147- imaging spectrometry and inverse modeling. Ecological Appl., 172. 8, 1022-1036. Biesecker, D.A., B.J. Thompson, S.E. Gibson, D. Alexander, Aumont, B., S. Madronich, M. Ammann, M. Kalberer, U. A. Fludra, N. Gopalswamy, J.T. Hoeksema, A. Lecinski, and Baltensperger, D. Hauglustaine, and F. Brocheton, 1999: On L. Strachan, 1999: Synoptic sun during the first whole sun the NO2 + soot reaction in the atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res., month campaign: August 10 to September 8, 104, 1729-1736. 1996.J. Geophys. Res., 104 (A5), 9679-9689. Baird, A. J. and R. L. Wilby, Eds., 1999: Eco-hydrology: Bilde, M., J. J. Orlando, G. S. Tyndall, T. J. Wallington, M. J. Plants and water in terrestrial and aquatic environments. New Hurley, and E. W. Kaiser, 1999: FT-IR product studies of the York: Routledge, 402 pp. C1-initiated oxidation of CH3C1 in the presence of NO. J. Phys. Chem. A., 103, 3963-3968. Baker, B., A. Guenther, J. Greenberg, A. Goldstein, and R. Fall, 1999: Canopy fluxes of 2-methyl-3-buten-2ol over a pon- Blake, N. J., D. R. Blake, O. W. Wingenter, B. C. Sive, C. H. derosa pine forest by relaxed eddy accumulation: Field data Kang, D. C. Thornton, A. R. Bandy, E. Atlas, F. Flocke, J. M. and model comparison. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 26107-26114. Harris, and F. S. Rowland, 1999: Aircraft measurements of the latitudinal, vertical, and seasonal variations of NMHCs, Ball, S., D. Hanson, F. Eisele, and P. McMurry, 1999: methyl nitrate, methyl halides and DMS during ACE-1. J. Laboratory studies of particle nucleation: Initial results for Geophys. Res., 104, 21803-21818. H2SO4, H2O and NH3 vapors. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 23709- 23718. Bogdan, T.J., 1999: An expansion method for computing axisymmetric sunspot oscillations. Astrophys. J., 512, 471- Barnes, G. and K.B. MacGregor, 1999: On the magnetohy- 483. drodynamics of a conducting fluid between two flat plates. Physics of Plasmas, 6 (8), 3030-3046. Bonan, G. B. and L. M. Stillwell-Soller, 1998: Soil water and the persistence of floods and droughts in the Mississippi River Barnes, G., P. Charbonneau, and K.B. MacGregor, 1999: Basin. Water Resour. Res., 34, 2693-2701. Angular momentum transport in magnetized stellar radiative zones. III. The solar light-element abundances. Astrophys. J., 511, 466-480.

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Bougher, S.W., S. Engel, R.G. Roble, and B. Foster, 1999: Bunkers, M. J., B. Klimowski, J. W. Zeitler, G. Thompson, Comparative terrestrial planet thermospheres 2. Solar cycle and M. L. Weisman, 2000: Predicting supercell motion using variation of global structure and winds at equinox . J. a new hodograph technique. Wea. Forecasting, 15 (1), 61-79. Geophys. Res., 104, 16591-16611. Buonsanto, M. J., S.A. Gonzalez, G. Lu, B.W. Reinisch, and Bowling, D. R., A. C. Delany, A. A. Turnipseed, D. D. J.P. Thayer, 1999: Coordinated incoherent scatter radar study Baldocchi, and R. K. Monson, 1999: Modification of the of the January, 1997 storm. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 24625- relaxed eddy accumulation technique to maximize measured 24637. scalar mixing ratio differences in updrafts and downdrafts. J. Cantrell, C., 1998: NO in the atmosphere. Chapter 11 in N- Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104 (D8), 9121-9133. x centered radicals. Z. B. Alfassi, Ed., New York: John Wiley & Brady, E. C., R. M. DeConto, and S. L. Thompson, 1998: Sons Ltd., 371-391. Deep water formation and poleward ocean heat transport in Carbone, R. E., the warm climate extreme of the Cretaceous (80 Ma). 1999: Atmospheric observation in weather R. Pielke Jr. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 4205-4208. prediction. Storms. & R. Pielke Sr., Eds., New York: Routledge Press, 109-125. Brandes, E. A., J. Vivekanandan, and J. W. Wilson, 1999: , J. Wilson Notes and correspondence. A comparison of radar reflectivity T. D. Keenan, J. Hacker, and , 1999: Tropical estimates of rainfall from collocated radars. J. Atmos. and island convection in the absence of significant topography. Ocean. Tech., 16, 1264-1272. Preprints, 8th Conf. on Mesoscale Processes, Boulder, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 44-48. Branstator, G. and S. E. Haupt, 1998: An empirical model of , J. Tuttle, W. A. Cooper, V. Grubisic W. -C. Lee, barotropic atmospheric dynamics and its response to tropical , and forcing. J. Climate, 11, 2645-2667. 1998: Tradewind rainfall near the windward coast of Hawaii. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126 (11), 2847-2863. B r a s s e u r, G. P., J. Orlando, and G. Ty n d a l l , 1 9 9 9 : , , L. J. Miller, R. Oye, S. B. Trier, Atmospheric chemistry and global change. New York: Oxford and 1999: University Press, pp. 654. Large domain studies of warm season precipitation episodes. Preprints, 29th Int. Conf. on Radar Meteor., Montreal, Braun, D.C. and Y. Fan, 1998: Helioseismic measurements of Quebec, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 596-599. the subsurface meridional flow, Astrophys. J., 50 8 , L105-L108. Casini, R. and P.G. Judge, 1999: Spectral lines for polariza- Braun, D.C. and C. Lindsey, 1999: Helioseismic Images of an tion measurements of the coronal magnetic field. II. active region complex, Astrophys. J., 513, L79-L82. Consistent treatment of the Stokes vector for magnetic-dipole transitions. Astrophy. J., 522, 524-539. Bretherton, C. S., M. K. Macvean, P. Bechtold, A. Chlond, W. R. Cotton, J. Cuxart, H. Cuijpers, M. Khairoutdinov, B. Castro, T., S. Madronich, and R. K. Monson, 1999: The Kosovic, D. Lewellen, C.-H. Moeng, P. Siebesma, B. Stevens, influence of herbivory on monoterpene emissions from conif- I. Sykes, and M. C. Wyant, 1999: An intercomparison of radia- erous forest trees and control over the oxidative capacity of tively-driven entrainment and turbulence in a smoke cloud, as the troposphere. Ecol. App., 9, 1147-1159. simulated by different numerical models. Quart. J. Roy. F. O. Bryan, Meteor. Soc., 125, 391-423. Celaya, M., J. Wahr, and 1999: Climate driven polar motion. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 12813-12829. Brown, W. O. J., S. A. Cohn, C. Martin, G. Maclean, M. T. G. F. Kittel, Susedik, and D. Parsons, 1999: Clear air wind profiling with Chase, T. N., R. A. Pielke, Sr., J. S. Baron, and M A P R. Preprints, Proc. 9th Atmospheric Radiation T. J. Stohlgren, 1999: Potential impacts on Colorado Rocky Measurement-ARM Science Team Meeting, San Antonio, TX. Mountain weather due to land use changes on the adjacent Great Plains. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 16673-16690. ——, ——, ——, ——, ——, 1999: NCAR’s multiple antenna M. Dikpati, profiler radar. Preprints, 29th Int. Conf. on Radar Meteor., Choudhuri, A.R. and 1999: On the large-scale dif- 184 Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 815-818. fuse magnetic field of the sun. Solar Physics, , 61-76. G. Lu, B. A. Emery, ——, ——, M. Susedik, C. L. Martin, G. Maclean, and D. B. Chun, F. K., D. J. Knipp, M. G. McHarg, Parsons, 1999: The NCAR/ARM multiple antenna profiler. O.A. Troshichev, and S. Vennerstrom, 1999: Polar cap index Preprints, Proc. 9th Atmospheric Radiation Measurement- as a proxy for hemispheric Joule heating. Geophys. Res. 26 ARM Sci. Team Meeting, San Antonio, TX at Lett., , 1101. P r o f i l e r h t t p : / / w w w. a r m . g o v / d o c s / d o c u m e n t s / t e c h n i c a l / c o n f _ 9 Ciais, P., P. Friedlingstein, D. S. Schimel, and P. P. Tans, 903/brown-99.pdf . 1999: A global calculation of the d13C of soil respired carbon: Implications for the biospheric uptake of anthropogenic CO . Bruintjes, R. T., 1999: A review of cloud seeding experiments 2 13 to enhance precipitation and some new prospects. Bull. Amer. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, , 519-530. Meteor. Soc., 80, 805-820. Clark, T. L., L. Radke, J. L. Coen, and D. Middleton, 1999: Brune, W. H., D. Tan, I.F. Faloona, L. Jaeglé, D. J. Jacob, B. Analysis of small-scale convective dynamics in a crown fire 38 G. Heikes, J. Snow, Y. Kondo, R. Shetter, G. W. Sachse, B. using infrared video camera imagery. J. Appl. Meteor., , Anderson, G. L. Gregory, S. Vay, H. B. Singh, D. D. Davis, J. 1401-1420. H. Crawford, and D. R. Blake, 1999: OH and HO2 chemistry in the North Atlantic free troposphere. Geophys. Res. 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Boundary Layers and Turbulence, Dallas, TX, 102-105. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125 (561), 3375-3391. ——, W. O. J. Brown, and D. Parsons, 1999: Preliminary Davis, C. A. and M. T. Stoelinga, 1999: Interpretation of the analysis of the ARM TOCS cruise. Preprints, Proc. 9th effect of mountains on synoptic-scale baroclinic waves. J. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement-ARM Sci. Te a m Atmos. Sci., 56, 3303-3320. Meeting, San Antonio, TX. Davis, C. A. and M. T. Stoelinga, 1999: The transition to ——, ——, J. Jordan, and L. Cornman, 1999: Recent devel- topographic normal modes. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 3321-3330. opments in boundary layer radar wind profiling. Preprints, Davis, C. A., T. Warner, and E. Astling, 1999: Development 29th Int. Conf. on Radar Meteor., Montreal, Quebec, Canada, and application of an operational, relocatable, mesogamma- Amer. Meteor. Soc., 819-822. scale weather analysis and forecast system. Tellus, A51 (5), Collins, W. 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Poulet, C. Bouka Biona, D. Nganga, J. P. Tathy, A. Minga, J. Leomba-Ndembi, and P. Costen, R. C. and L. J. Miller, 1998: Pulsing inertial oscilla- Ceccato, 1999: Experiment for Regional Sourches and Sinks tion, supercell storms, and surface mesonetwork data. J. of Oxidants (EXPRESSO): An overview. J. Geophys. Res., Engineering Mathematics, 34, 277-299. 104, 30609-30624. Crawford, J., D. Davis, G. Chen, R. Shetter, M. Muller, J. D e s e r, C., 2000: On the teleconnectivity of the “Arctic Barrick, and J. Olson, 1999: An assessment of cloud effects Oscillation”. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27 (6), 779-782. on photolysis rates: Comparison of experimental and theoretical values. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 5725-5734. Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, and M. S. Timlin, 1999: Evidence for a wind-driven intensification of the Kuroshio Current Crook, N. A. and J. B. Klemp, 1999: Lifting at convergence Extension from the 1970s to the 1980s. J. Climate, 12 (6), lines. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 873-890. 1697-1706. 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Dikpati, M. and P. Gilman, 1999: Joint instability of latitudinal ——, J. Vi v e k a n a n d a n , and E. A. Brandes, 1 9 9 9 : differential rotation and concentrated toroidal fields below the Verification of polarimetric radar based cloud microphysical solar convection zone. Astrophys. J., 512, 417-441. results using aircraft observations. Preprints, 29th Conf. on Radar Meteor., Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Amer. Meteor. W.-C. Lee, Dodge, P., S. Houston, J. Gamache, and F. D. Soc., 180-183. Marks, Jr., 1999: Windfields in hurricane Danny (1997) at landfall from combined WSR-88D and airborne doppler radar Emery, B. A., C. Lathuillere, P. G. Richards, R. G. Roble, M. data. Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Hurricanes and Tr o p i c a l J. Buonsanto, D. J. Knipp, P. Wilkinson, D. P. Sipler, and R. Meteor., Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., I, 61-62. Niciejewski, 1999: Time dependent thermospheric neutral response to the 2-11 November 1993 storm period. J. Atmos. D.C. Braun, Donea, A.-C., and C. Lindsey, 1999: Seismic Solar Terr. Phys., 61 (3-4), 329-350. images of a solar flare. Astrophys. J., 513, L143-L146. Erickson, D. III, 1999: Nitrogen deposition, terrestrial carbon Doney, S. C., 1999: Major challenges confronting marine bio- uptake and changes in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric 1 3 geochemical modeling. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, , CO . Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 3313-3316. 705-714. 2 Errico, R. M., 1999: Workshop on assimilation of satellite Doney, S. C., D. W. R. Wallace, and H. W. Ducklow, 1999: data. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 463-471. The North Atlantic carbon cycle: New perspectives from JGOFS and WOCE. The changing ocean carbon cycle: A Errico, R. M., 1999: Report of the workshop on assimilation midterm synthesis of the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study. R. of satellite data held at NASA/GSFC 21-23 April 1998. Bull. Hanson, H. Ducklow, and J. Field, Eds., New York: Cambridge Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 463-471. University Press, 373-391. Errico, R. M. and R. Langland, 1999: Notes on the appropri- Doyle, J. D. and M. A. Shapiro, 1999: Flow response to large- ateness of “bred modes” for generating initial perturbations scale topography: The Greenland tip jet. Tellus, A51 (5), used in ensemble prediction. Tellus, A 51 (3), 431-441. 728-748. Errico, R. M. and R. Langland, 1999: Response to comments Durlak, S., D. Baumgardner, and G. B. Raga, 1999: by Toth et al. Tellus, 51A, 450-451. Examination of the evolution of Mexico City aerosols using an aerosol and photochemical box model. Preprints, Annual Errico, R. M. and K. D. Raeder, 1999: An examination of the Meeting of the American Assoc. for Aerosol Research, accuracy of the linearization of a mesoscale model with moist Tacoma, WA, 74. physics. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125 (553), 169-195, Part A. Dvortsov, V., M. Geller, S. Solomon, S. Schauffler, E. Atlas, and D. Blake, 1999: Rethinking reactive halogen budgets in Fan, Y., E.G. Zweibel, M.G. Linton, and G.H. Fisher, 1999: the midlatitude lower stratosphere. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, The rise of kink-unstable magnetic flux tubes and the origin of 1699-1702. -configuration sunspots, Astrophys. J., 521, 460-477. Edwards, D., C. Halvorson, and J. Gille, 1999: Radiative Firor, J., 1999: Response to “Rolling the Climate Dice.” Bull. transfer modeling for the EOS terra satellite Measurement of Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80 (6), 1149-1150. Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument. J . Flocke, F., R. L. Herman, R. J. Salawitch, E. Atlas, C. R. Geophys. Res., 104, 16755-16775. Webster, S. M. Schauffler, R. A. Lueb, R. D. May, E. J. Ehrendorfer, M., R. M. Errico, and K. D. Raeder, 1999: Moyer, K. H. Rosenlof, D. C. Scott, D. R. Blake, and T. P. Bui, Singular vector perturbation growth in a primitive equation 1999: An examination of chemistry and transport processes model with moist physics. J. Atmos. Sci., 56 (11), 1627-1648. in the tropical lower stratosphere using observations of long- lived and short-lived compounds obtained during STRATN Ellis, S., 1999: Compensating reflectivity for clutter filter bias. and POLARIS. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 26625-26642. Preprints, 15th Conf. on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS), Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4. Fontenla, J., O.R. White, P.A. Fox, E.H. Avrett, and R.L. Kurucz, 1999: Calculation of solar irradiances. I. Synthesis of —— and C. L. Frush, 1999: Compensating reflectivity esti- the solar spectrum. Astrophys. J., 518, 480-499. mates biased by ground clutter filters. Preprints, URSI Nat. Radio Sci. Meeting, NAS&E/NRC/USNC/IURS, Boulder, CO, Forbes, G., A. Chiu, W.-C. Lee, and P. Dodge, 1999: Super 299. typhoon paka’s (1997) surface winds. Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteor., Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. ——, F. Pratte, and C. Frush, 1999: Compensating reflectivi- Soc., I, 1032-1033. ty for clutter filter bias in the WSR-88D. Preprints, 15th Conf. on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS), Fournier, A., 1999: Transfers and fluxes of wind kinetic ener- Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 306-309. gy between orthogonal wavelet components during atmospheric blocking. Wavelets in physics. J.C. van den ——, ——, and ——, 1999: Compensating reflectivity for clut- Berg, Ed., Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 263-298. ter filter bias in the WSR-88D. Preprints, 29th Conf. on Radar Meteor., Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Fried, A., B. Wert, B. Henry, and J. Drummond, 1999: 572-575. Airborne tunable diode laser measurements of formaldehyde. Spectrochimica Acta Part A, 55, 20097-20110.

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Frost, G. J., M. Traner, R. L. Maulding III, F. L. Eisele, A. S. Glantz, M.H., Ed., 1999: Creeping environmental problems H. Prévot, S. J. Flocke, S. Madronich, G. Kok, R. D. and sustainable development in the Aral Sea Basin. Schillawski, D. Baumgardner, and J. Bradshaw, 1999: Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 291 pp. Photochemical modeling of OH levels during the Aerosol Characterization Experiment. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 16401- Glantz, M.H., 1999: Sustainable development and creeping 16052. environmental problems in the Aral Sea region. Creeping environmental problems and sustainable development in the Frush, C., 1999: Reduction of radar range ambiguity using Aral Sea Basin. M.H. Glantz, Ed., Cambridge, UK: Cambridge SA (8/64) coded phase transmit sequence. Preprints, 15th University Press, 1-25. Conf. on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS), Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4. Glantz, M.H., 1999: El Niño as a hazard-spawner. 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MacQueen, R.M., J.G. Blankner, D.F. Elmore, A.R. Lecinski, McWilliams, J. C., 1999: The formulation of oceanic general and O.R. White, 1998: Initial CHIP He I observations of solar circulation models. General circulation model development: limb activity. Solar Phys., 182, 97-105. Past, present, and future: Proceedings of a symposium in honor of Professor Akio Arakawa. D. Randall, Ed., San Diego, Madden, R. A., T. J. Hoar, and R. F. Milliff, 1 9 9 8 : CA: Academic Press, 421-456. Scatterometer winds composited according to the phase of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation. Tellus, 51A, 263-272. McWilliams, J. C., 1998: Oceanic general circulation models. Ocean modeling and parameterization. E. Chassignet, Ed., Madden, R. A., H. Lejenäs, and J. J. Hack, 1998: Semi-diur- Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1-44. nal variations in the budget of angular momentum in a general circulation model and in the real atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., McWilliams, J. C., C.-H. Moeng, and P. P. 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Knölker, and W. storms at White Sands Missile Range. Preprints, 29th Int. Schmidt, 1999: Dynamics of solar magnetic elements. Astron. Conf. on Radar Meteor., Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Amer. & Astrophys., 349, 941. Meteor. Soc., 9-12. Simpson, D., W. Winiwarter, S. Cinderby, A. Ferreiro, A. Schauffler, S., E. Atlas, D. Blake, F. Flocke, R. Lueb, J. Lee- Guenther, C. N. Hewitt, R. Janson, A. Khalil, S. Owen, T. Taylor, V. Stroud, and W. Travnicek, 1999: Distributions of Pierce, H. Puxbaum, M. Shearer, R. Steinbrecher, B. brominated organic compounds in the troposphere and lower Svennson, L. Tarrason, and M. Oquist, 1999: Inventorying stratosphere. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 21513-21535. emissions from nature in Europe. J. Geophys. Res., 104, Schimel, D. S. and N. S. Panikov, 1999: Simulation models of 8113-8152. terrestrial trace gas fluxes at soil microsites to global scales. Skamarock, W. C., R. Rotunno, and J. B. Klemp, 1999: Approaches to scaling of trace gas fluxes in ecosystems. L. 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Deser, and Telescopes for the Atmosphere (CRISTA) observations of 1999: Subduction of decadal North Pacific temperature anom- tracer transport by inertially unstable circulations. J. Geophys. alies: Observations and dynamics. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 29 (5), Res., 104, 19171-19182. 1056-1070. Smith, P. L. and R. J. Keeler, 1999: Why horizontal polariza- Schneider, T., C. Granier, X. X. Tie, D. Hauglustaine, G. B. tion? Preprints, 29th Int. Conf. on Radar Meteor., Montreal, Bonan, and L. M. Stillwell-Soller, 1998: Soil water and the Quebec, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 201-202. persistence of floods and droughts in the Mississippi River Sneddon, G., Basin. Water Resour. Res., 34, 2693-2701. 1999: Smoothing in an underdetermined linear model with random explanatory variables. Canadian J. of Schneider, N., S. Venzke, A. J. Miller, D. W. Pierce, T. P. Statistics, 27 (1), 63-79. Barnett, C. Deser, and M. Latif, 1999: Pacific thermocline Snyder, C., bridge revisited. Geophys. Res. 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Sofia, S., P.A. Fox, and K. Schatten, 1999: Forecast update Thüner, L., I. Barnes, K. Becker, T. Wallington, L. Christensen, for activity cycle 23 from a dynamo-based method, Geophys. J. Orlando, and B. Ramacher, 1999: Atmospheric chemistry Res. Letters, 25 (22), 4149-4152. of tetrachloroethene (C12C=CC12): Products of chlorine atom initiated oxidation. J. Phys. Chem. A., 103, 8657-8663. Sommerfeld, R. A., C. A. Knight, and N. F. Laird, 1998: Reply. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25 (23), 4391-4392. Tie, X., G. Brasseur, P. Hess, and M. Riese, 1999: Hemispheric asymmetry of chemical species and its effect on St. Cyr, O.C., J.T. Burkepile, A.J. Hundhausen, and A.R. stratospheric ozone: Emphasis on halogen loading. Adv. Lecinski, 1999: A comparison of ground-based and space- Space Res., 24, 1631-1636. craft observations of coronal mass ejections from 1980-1989, J. Geophys. Res., 104 (A6), 12493-12506. Toon, G. C., J.-F. Blavier, B. Sen, J. J. Margitan, C. R. Webster, R. D. May, D. Fahey, R. 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Tyndall, G., J. Orlando, C. Kegley-Owen, T. Wallington, and Jacob, G. Brasseur, J.-F. Müller, and M. Lawrence, 1999: M. Hurley, 1999: Rate coefficients for the reactions of chlorine Distribution of reactive nitrogen species in the remote free tro- atoms with methanol and acetaldehyde. Int’l. J. Chem. Kinet., posphere: Data and model comparisons. Atmos. Environ., 31, 776-784. 33, 1403-1422. Udenhofen, P., P. Gies, C. Roy, and W. J. Randel, 1999: Thomas, S. J., M. Desgagne, and R. Benoit, 1999: A real- Analysis of surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation measurements, time North American forecast at 10km resolution with the ozone, and cloud cover over Australia. J. Geophys. Res., Canadian MC2 Meso-LAM. J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech., 16, 19135-19160. 1092-1101.

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Upchurch, G. R., B. L. Otto-Bliesner, and C. R. Scotese, Wallington, T., O. Sokolov, M. Hurley, G. Tyndall, J. Orlando, 1999: Terrestrial vegetation and its effects on climate during I. Barnes, K. Becker, and R. Vogt, 1999: Atmospheric chem- the latest Cretaceous. Evolution of the Cretaceous ocean-cli - istry of methylcyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl: mate system. E. Barrera and C. Johnson, Eds., Boulder, CO: Photolysis, reaction with hydroxyl radicals and ozone. The Geological Society of America, Special Paper 332, 407- Environ. Sci. Technol., 33, 4232-4238. 426. Walther, C., B. Lewis, R. Neitzel, and J. Haggerty, 1999: Van Andel, J., C. Kessinger, and D. Ecoff, 1999: APCAT:An Refurbishment of the airborne imaging microwave radiometer AP clutter analysis tool. Preprints, 29th Int. Conf. on Radar at NCAR. Proc. of the 4th Int. Airborne Remote Sens. Meteor., Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Conference and Exhibition/21st Canadian Symposium on 267-269. Remote Sens., I, 502-508. van Hees, R. M., J. Lelieveld, and W. D. Collins, 1999: Wang, J., J. Gille,P. Bailey, J. Drummond, and L. Pan, 1999: Detecting tropical convection using AVHRR satellite data. J. Instrument sensitivity and error analysis for the remote sens- Geophys. Res., 104, 9213-9228. ing of tropospheric carbon monoxide by MOPITT. J. Atmos. & Oceanic Tech., 16, 465-474. van Loon, H., G. A. Meehl, and J. M. Arblaster, 1998: Global scale decadal climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, , J. Gille, P. Bailey, L. Pan, D. Edwards, and J. 3983. Drummond, 1999: Retrieval of tropospheric carbon monoxide profiles from high-resolution interferometer observations: A van Loon, H. and K. Labitzke, 1999: The signal of the 11-year new digital gas correlation (DGC) method and applications. J. solar cycle in the global stratosphere. J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., Atmos. Sci., 56, 219-232. 61, 53-61. Wang, J., W. B. Rossow, T. Uttal, and M. Rozendaal, 1999: Vivekanandan, J., S. M. Ellis, E. A. 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Laursen, L. M. Russell, A. R. Bandy, angle distribution of raindrop spectra using radar measure- D. C. Thornton, and K. Suhre, 1999: Characteristics of the ments. Preprints, Int. Radar Symposium, Bangalore, India, 1R marine boundary layers during two Lagrangian measurement S1-99. periods: 2. Turbulence structure. J. Geophys. Res., 104 Vereecken, L., J. Peeters, J. J. Orlando, G. S. Tyndall, and (D17), 21767-21784. C. Ferronato, 1999: Decomposition of b-hydroxypropoxy rad- Waugh, D. W. and W. J. Randel, 1999: Climatology of Arctic icals in the OH-initiated oxidation of propene: A theoretical and Antarctic polar vortices using elliptical diagnosis. J. and experimental study. J. Phys. Chem. A., 103, 4693-4702. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1594-1613. Vivekanandan, J., D. S. Zrnic, S. M. Ellis, R. Oye, A. V. Waugh, D. W., W. J. Randel, and S. Pawson, 1999: Ryzhkov, and J. Straka, 1999: Cloud microphysics retrieval Persistence of the lower stratospheric polar vortices. J. using S-band dual polarization radar measurements. Bull. Geophys. Res., 104, 27191-27202. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80 (3), 381-388. Wanninkhof, R., S. C. Doney, T.-H. Peng, J. Bullister, K. Lee, Vivekanandan, J., D. S. Zrnic, S. M. Ellis, R. Oye, A. V. and R. A. Feely, 1999: Comparison of methods to determine Ryzhkov, and J. Straka, 1999: Cloud microphysics retrieval the anthropogenic CO2 invasion into the Atlantic Coast. Tellus, using S-band dual polarization radar measurement. Preprints, 51B (2), 511-530. 15th Int. Conf. on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS), Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 287-290. Weckwerth, T. M., 1999: The effect of small-scale moisture variability on thunderstorm initiation. Preprints, 29th Int. Conf. von Hardenberg, J., J. C. McWilliams, A. Provenzale, A. on Radar Meteor., Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Shchepetkin, and J. B. Weiss, 2000: Vortex merging in quasi- Soc., 17-20. geostrophic flows. J. Fluid Mech., 412, 331-353. 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Weiss, J. B., A. Provenzale, and J. C. McWilliams, 1998: Wilson, J., 1999: Evolution of radar and other variables for Lagrangian dynamics in high-dimensional point-vortex sys- the 0-2 hr forecast of thunderstorms. Preprints, 29th Int. Conf. tems. Phys. Fluids, 10, 1929-1941. on Radar Meteorology, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4. Welch, W. and K. Tung, 1998: Nonlinear baroclinic adjust- ment and wavenumber selection in a simple case. J. Atmos. ——, 1999: Tropical island convection in the absence of sig- Sci., 55, 1285-1302. nificant topography: Part II: Evolution of the mesoscale convective systems. Preprints, 15th Int. Conf. on Interactive ——- and ——-, 1998: On the equilibrium spectrum of tran- Information and Processing Systems (IIPS), Dallas, TX, Amer. sient waves in the atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 5 5 , Meteor. Soc., 4. 2833-2851. ——, T. D. Keenan, and R. E. Carbone, 1999: Tropical island Wheeler, M. and G. N. Kiladis, 1999: Convectively coupled convection in the absence of significant topography Part II: equatorial waves: Analysis of clouds and temperature in the Evolution of mesoscale convective systems. Preprints, 23rd wavenumber-frequency domain. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 374-399. Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Dallas, TX, Wigley, T. M. L., 1999: The science of climate change: Global Amer. Meteor. Soc., 534-537. and U.S. perspectives. Arlington, VA: Pew Center on Global —— and R. D. Roberts, 1999: Evaluation of radar and other Climate Change, 48 pp. variables for the 0-2 hr. forecast of thunderstorms. Preprints, Wigley, T. M. L., P. J. Jaumann, B. D. Santer, and K. E. Taylor, 29th Int. Conf. on Radar Meteor., Montreal, Quebec, Canada, 1998: Relative detectability of greenhouse-gas and aerosol Amer. Meteor. Soc., 5-8. climate change signals. Climate Dyn., 14 (11), 781-790. Wingenter, O. W., D. R. Blake, N. J. Blake, B. C. Sive, F. S. Wigley, T. M. L., R. L. Smith, and B. D. Santer, 1998: Rowland, E. Atlas, and F. Flocke, 1999: Tropospheric Anthropogenic influence on the autocorrelation structure of hydroxyl and atomic chlorine concentrations, and mixing time hemispheric-mean temperatures. Science, 282,1676-1679. scales determined from hydrocarbon and halocarbon measurements made over the Southern Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., Wigley, T. M. L., R. L. Smith, and B. D. Santer, 1999: The 104, 21819-21828. autocorrelation function and human influences on climate (response to comment by Tsonis and Elsner). Science, 285 Wu, X., W. D. Hall, W. W. Grabowski, M. W. Moncrieff, W. (Technical Comment), 495a. D. Collins, and J. Kiehl, 1999: Long-term behavior of cloud systems in TOGACOARE and their interactions with radiative Wikle, C. K., R. F. Milliff, and W. G. Large, 1999: Surface and surface processes. Part II: Effects of ice microphysics on wind variability on spatial scales from 1 to 1000 km observed cloud-radiation interaction. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 3177-3195. during TOGA COARE. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 2222-2231. Wu, X. and M. W. Moncrieff, 1999: Effects of sea surface Wilby, R. L., 1999: The future of eco-hydrology. Eco-hydrolo - temperature and large-scale dynamics on the thermodynamic gy: Plants and water in terrestrial and aquatic environments. equilibrium state and convection over the tropical western A. Baird and R. L. Wilby, Eds., New York: Routledge, Pacific. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 6093-6100. 346–374. Wulfmeyer, V., 1999: Investigations of humidity skewness Wilby, R. L., 1998: Modelling extreme rainfall using weather and variance profiles in the convective boundary layer and pattern and frontal frequencies. J. Hydrol ., 2 1 2 – 2 1 3, comparison of the latter with large eddy simulation results. J. 380–392. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1077-1087. Wilby, R. L., 1998: Statistical downscaling of daily precipita- ———-, 1999: Investigation of turbulent processes in the tion using daily airflow and seasonal teleconnection indices. lower troposphere with water-vapor DIALand Radar-RASS. J. Climate Research, 10 (3), 163–178. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1055-1076. Wilby, R. L., L. E. Hay, and G. H. Leavesley, 1999: A com- ———-, 1999: Water vapor differential absorption lidar: A ref- parison of downscaled and raw GCM output: implications for erence standard for water vapor profiling in the atmosphere. climate change scenarios in the San Juan River basin, Chapman Conference on water vapor in the climate system. Colorado. J. Hydrology, 225 (1-2), 67-91. Potomac, Maryland, 24. Wilby, R. L. and D. S. Schimel, 1999: Scales of interaction in Yates, D. N., T. G. F. Kittel, and R. F. Cannon, 2000: eco-hydrological relations. Eco-hydrology: Plants and water in Comparing the correlative Holdridge model to mechanistic terrestrial and aquatic environments. A. Baird and R. L. Wilby, biogeographical models for assessing vegetation distribution Eds., New York: Routledge, 39–77. response to climatic change. Climatic Change, 44 (1-2), 59- Williamson, D. L., 1999: Numerical approximations for glob- 87. al atmospheric models. Global energy and water cycles. K. Yoneyama, K., and D. B. Parsons, 1999: A proposed mecha- Browning and R. J. Gurney, Eds., New York: Cambridge nism for the intrusion of dry air into the tropical western University Press, 33-43. Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 11. 1524-1546. Wilks, D. S. and R. L. Wilby, 1999: The weather generation Zhang, G. J., J. T. Kiehl, and P. J. Rasch, 1998: Response game: a review of stochastic weather models. Progress in of climate simulation to a new convective paramaterization in Physical Geography, 23, 329-357. the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM3). J. Climate, 11, 2097-2115.

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Zhang, Y., J. R. Norris, and J. M. Wallace, 1998: Seasonality Barth, M. C., P. J. Rasch, J. T. Kiehl, C. M. Benkovitz, and of large scale atmosphere-ocean interaction over the North S. E. Schwartz, 2000: Sulfur chemistry in the National Center Pacific. J. Climate, 11, 2473-2481. for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model: Description, evaluation, features, and sensitivity to aqueous Zheligovsky V.A. and D.J. Galloway, 1998: Dynamo action in chemistry. J. Geophys. Res.- Atmos, 105 (D1), 1387-1415. Christopherson hexagonal flow. Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dynamics, 88, 277-293. Berresheim, H., T. Elste, C. Plass-Dulmer, F. Eisele, and D. Tanner, 2000: Chemical ionization mass spectrometer for Zou, X., F. Vandenberghe, B. Wang, M.E. Gorbunov, Y.-H. long-term measurements of atmospheric OH and H2SO4. Int’l. Kuo, S. Sokolovskiy, J.C. Chang, J.G. Sela and R. A. J. Mass Spec., 202, 91-109. 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Brown, T.M. and J.L. Tonry, 2000: Multicolor observations of ___, M. Dikpati and P. Gilman, 1999: Stability of the solar lat- a planetary transit of HD 209458. Astrophys. J., 540, L45-L48. itudinal differential rotation inferred from helioseismic data. Astrophys. J., 526, 523-537. Browning, K.A., A.J. Thorpe, A. Montani, D. Parsons, M. Griffiths, P. Panagi, and E.M. Dicks, 2000: Interactions of Chamiedes, W.L., H. Yu, C. Liu, M. Bergin, Z. Ziuji, L.O. tropopause depressions with an ex-tropical cyclone and sen- Mearns, W. Gao, C.S. Kiang, R.D. Saylor, L. Chao, Y. Huang, sitivity of forecasts to analysis errors. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128 A. Steiner, and F. Giorgi, 1999: A case study of the effects of (8), 2734-2755. atmospheric aerosols and regional haze on agriculture: An opportunity to enhance crop yields in China through emission Bunkers, M. J., B. Klimowski, J. W. Zeitler, G. Thompson, and controls? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, M. L. 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Choudhuri, A. R. and M. Dikpati, 1999: On the large-scale dif- Dai, A., 2001: Global precipitation and thunderstorm frequen- fuse magnetic field of the Sun: II The contribution of active cies. Part I: Seasonal and interannual variations. J. Climate, regions. Solar Physics, 184 (1), 61-76. 14 (6), 1092-1111. Chuang, P. Y., D. R. Collins, H. Pawlowska, J. R. Snider, H. Dai, A., 2001: Global precipitation and thunderstorm frequen- H. Jonsson, J.-L. Brenguier, R. C. Flagan, and J.H. Seinfeld, cies. Part II: Diurnal variations. J. Climate, 14 (6), 1112-1128. 2000: CCN measurements during ACE-2 and their relation- Dai, A. T. M. L. Wigley, ship to cloud microphysical properties. Tellus, 52B, 843-867. and 2000: Global patterns of ENSO- induced precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1283-1286. ——-, A. Nenes, J. N. Smith, R. C. Flagan, and J. H. Seinfeld, Dai, A., T. M. L Wigley, B. Boville, J. T. Kiehl, and L. Buja, 2000: Design of a CCN instrument for airborne measure- th st ment. J. Atmos. 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Doney, S. C. and D. M. Glover, 2001: Ocean process tracers: Eisele, F. and D. Hanson, 2000: First measurement of modelling the ocean carbon cycle. Encyclopedia of ocean sci - prenucleation molecular clusters. J. Phys. Chem. A, 104, ences. J. Steele, Ed., San Diego, CA: Academic Press, in 830-836. press. Emmons, L., D. Hauglustaine, J-F. Müller, M. Carroll, G. Douglass, A. R., M. J. Prather, T. M. Hall, S. E. Strahan, P. J. Brasseur, D. Brunner, J. Staehelin, V. Thouret, and A. Rasch, L. C. Sparling, L. Coy, and J. M. Rodriguez, 1999: Marenco, 2000: Data composites of airborne observations of Choosing meteorological input for the global modeling initia- tropospheric ozone and its precursors. J. Geophys. Res., tive assessment of high-speed aircraft. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 20497-20538. 104, 27545-27564. Erickson, D. III, 1999: Nitrogen deposition, terrestrial carbon Droegemeier, K. K., J. D. Smith, S. Businger, C. Doswell, III, uptake and changes in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric J. 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Stone, E., L. Pan, B. Sandor, W. Read, and J. Waters, 2000: Tierney, C., J. Wahr, F. Bryan, and V. Zlotnicki, 2000: Short- Spatial distributions of upper tropospheric water vapor meas- period oceanic circulation: Implications for satellite altimetry. urements from the UARS Microwave Limb Sounder. J. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1255-1258. Geophys. Res., 105, 12149-12161. Trenberth K. E., 2000: Conceptual framework for changes of Stone, M.C., R.H. Hotchkiss, C.M. Hubbard, T.A. Fontaine, rainfall and extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate L.O. Mearns, and J.G. Arnold, 2001: Impacts of climate change. Exchanges, 5, 12-13. change on the water yield of the Missouri Basin. J. Amer. Water Resources Assoc., in press. Trenberth, K. E., 2001: Earth system processes and interactions. Encyclopedia of global environmental change, Vol. 1. Streets, D.G. and M.H. Glantz, 2000: Exploring the concept of West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons Ltd., in press. climate surprise. 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141 142 AppendixAppendix EE ListList ofof AcronymsAcronyms

AAAS American Association for the Advancement of E&O Office of Education and Outreach (UCAR) Science ECSA Early-Career Scientist Assembly (NCAR) ACD Atmospheric Chemistry Division (NCAR) ELDORA Electra Doppler Radar ACE–Asia Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization EOS Earth Observing System Experiment EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ACOS Advanced Coronal Observing System ESIG Environmental and Societal Impacts Group (NCAR) ACPI Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative ESMF Earth System Modeling Framework ADDS Aviation Digital Data Service ETA hydrostatic model that employs the ETA vertical AMS American Meteorological Society coordinate (NOAA) AOAWS Advanced Operational Aviation Weather System FAA Federal Aviation Administration APS American Physical Society F&A Finance and Administration (UCAR) ARCS Advanced Research Computing System FBA forecasting by analogy ARG Appointments Review Group FFT fast Fourier transform ASP Advanced Study Program (NCAR) FSL Forecast Systems Laboratory (NOAA) ATD Atmospheric Technology Division (NCAR) GARP Global Atmospheric Research Program ATM Division of Atmospheric Sciences (NSF) GEO Geosciences Directorate (NSF) AVAPS Airborne Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (NOAA) BASC Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate GPRA Government Performance and Results Act BRAN Boulder Research and Administrative Network GPS Global Positioning System CCM Community Climate Model GSP Geophysical Statistics Project (NCAR) CCSM Community Climate System Model GST Global Positioning System Science and Technology CEDAR Coupling, Energetics, and Dynamics of (UOP) Atmospheric Regions GTCP Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program CGD Climate and Global Dynamics Division (NCAR) GTP Geophysical Turbulence Program (NCAR) CHAMMP Computer Hardware, Advanced Mathematics, and HAO High Altitude Observatory (NCAR) Model Physics Program HIAPER High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform CLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability Program for Environmental Research CMAP Climate Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction HIRDLS High-Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder CME coronal mass ejection HPCC High-Performance Computing and Communications COMET Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Program Education and Training (UOP) IG Inspector General COSMIC Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, INDOEX Indian Ocean Experiment Ionosphere, and Climate (UOP) ISCAT Investigation of Sulfur Chemistry in the Antarctic CPU central processing unit Troposphere CSL Climate Simulation Laboratory (SCD/NCAR) IT information technology CSM Climate System Model ITC Information Technology Council CTTC Corporate Technology Training Center ITR Information Technology Research DAO Data Assimilation Office (NASA) JOSS Joint Office for Science Support (UOP) DGA Division of Grants and Agreements (NSF) LEARN Laboratory Experience in Atmospheric Research at DICAST Dynamic, Integrated Forecast System NCAR DLESE Digital Library for Earth System Education (UOP) Leonid 98 Airborne Leonids Meteor Storm Campaign DMOS dynamic model output statistics LES large-eddy simulation DOE U.S. Department of Energy LTE local thermodynamic equilibrium DSM Distributed Shared Memory machines MAP Mesoscale Alpine Experiment DSS Data Support Section (SCD/NCAR) MB megabyte MHD magnetohydrodynamic

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MHD3D Magnetohydrodynamic Three-Dimensional Model UARS Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite MM5 Penn. State/NCAR Mesoscale Model, version 5 UCAR University Corporation for Atmospheric Research MMM Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division UOP UCAR Office of Programs (NCAR) URC University Relations Committee (UCAR member MOPITT Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere committee) MOS model output statistics USGCRP U.S. Global Change Research Program MOZART Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers USWRP U.S. Weather Research Program MSS Mass Storage System VSP Visiting Scientist Programs (UOP) NAO North Atlantic Oscillation WACCM Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model NASA National Aeronautics and Space Adminstration WITI Weather Information Technologies, Inc. NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research WRF Weather Research and Forecast Model NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction WSDDM Weather Support to Deicing Decision Making (NOAA) NEXRAD Next-generation Weather Radar NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NRL Naval Research Laboratory NSF National Science Foundation NSIPP NASASeasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project NWS National Weather Service (NOAA) OMB Office of Management and Budget PCM Parallel Climate Model PELTI Passing Efficiency of the Low-Turbulence Inlet POP Parallel Ocean Program (Los Alamos Nat’l Lab.) R&D research and development RAP Research Applications Program (NCAR) RISC reduced instruction-set computer SCD Scientific Computing Division (NCAR) SCSMX South China Sea Monsoon Experiment SCOSTEP Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics SHEBA Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean SMI Solar Magnetism Initiative SMP symmetric multiprocessor machines SOARS Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science (UCAR) SOHO Solar and Heliospheric Observatory SPEC Scientific Programs Evaluation Committee (UCAR member committee) SST sea-surface temperature TB terabyte TIDI TIMED Doppler Interferometer TIMED Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics TIME-GCM Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model TOPSE Tropospheric Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox TRACE Transition Region and Corona Explorer TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

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