SPECIAL Moving from Talk to Action NEWS MAGAZINE ADAPTATION VOL

1 SAN FRANCISCO ESTUARY

Fight or Flight at the Coast? North Bay’s Highway to the Future Developers Hedge Around Higher Water Urban Farms Feed Change

WATER ENVIRONMENT CLIMATE EQUITY

JUNE 2020 SPECIAL Moving from talk to action NEWS MAGAZINE ADAPTATION VOL. 29, NO. 2 on resilience in 12 Bay and ONLINE FEATURES Delta counties. WWW.SFESTUARY.ORG/ ISSUE ESTUARY-NEWS 2 ESTUARY JUNE 2020

Projects !in this Issue 2 1 3 1. Lake Sonoma YOLO Warm Springs Dam, p.22 YOLO 2. Capay Valley, Full Belly Farm, p.33 CapayCaCapapay 3. River Gardens Farms, p.34 4. Yolo Land & Cattle, p.33 SONOMA 4 5. Corte Madera, p.20 NAPA SantSantta 6. San Rafael/Tiscornia Rosa Marsh Restoration, p.20 RoRosasa 7. Highway 37/Sonoma Creek, p.28 S

n 8. Napa, p.24 o m 8 a 9. Benicia, p.28 C r e 10. Suisun Marsh, p.28 e SOLANO k TToomalomamaleleses 11. Sherman Island, p.35 NapaNaNapapa 12. Twitchell Island, p.35 MarshallMMaarsrshah llll 13. Staten Island, p.35 FFaairfieldirirfiiele d 14. Richmond Shoreline, p.4 7 15. Planting Justice Nursery, p.31 10 SACRAMENTO 16. Alameda, p.30 MARIN San 17. Eden Landing, p.30 Pablo Bay RioRiR o ViVistaVistst a 9 131 18. Alviso Shoreline, p.13 San Rafael 12 SaSan RaR fafaele BeniciaBeBenin cic a 19. Coyote and Penitencia Creeks 6 14 111 Confluence, p.12 5 North Richmond BolinasBolinas CorteCoCortrte NoNortth RiR chchmomonnd 20. Anderson Reservoir, p.11 MaderMaMadederara SAN JOAQUIN 21. Dumbarton Bridge Western Landing/ San Francisquito Creek, p.14 P a 23 C ONTRA 22. Colma Creek, p.15 OaklandOaOaklklana d C ONTRA DELTA c

23. San Francisco Seawall, p.7 i SanSan Francisanccisccoco 15 C OSTA f AlamedaAAllamamededa RoRoadsads i 16 c SanSan BrunoBrrunu o ART Bay Area Hotspots * Pacificacifica 22 South OpenOpen wawaterter at prespresentent San Francisco HaywarHaHaywward 17 Bay ALAMEDA 36" Sea Level Rise Flood Depth (ft) FrFremontememonont

O 21 0-2 ito qu c s ci an 2-4 n Fr 18 Sa e 4-6 a AlAlvisovvisos 6-8 n SAN 19 SANTA 8-10 C o SanSaS n JoseJoJosese y MATEO o 10-12 MATEO t e CLARA C CLARA r 12+ e e k

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Map: Amber Manfree. *Source: Base map updated from BCDC ART Bay Area 2020 report including “hot spots” where vulnerabilities in transportation, priority development areas, and community risk from sea-level rise overlap. 3

Region oceans: Northern California has seen RBD left off, while new communica- an almost relentless chain of extreme tion forums such as BayCAN are Moves to weather events, including flood- fueling regional progress. Adapt ing from wetter-than-usual winter Two themes link stories from the CARIAD HAYES storms (even as total rainfall remains past and the present: first, the criti- THRONSON, well below normal), giant wildfires, cal, overarching need for enormous, GUEST EDITOR and blisteringly hot days. stable financial resources for adapta- In 2017, I wrote for this publica- With this special issue, we at tion—the Restoration Authority can’t tion about nascent efforts to address ESTUARY wanted to look at the pay for everything; and second, the sea-level rise in various communities steps communities in each county importance of looking at every invest- around the Bay. At the time, many around the Bay and Delta are taking ment and land use decision from all of the efforts were taking their cues to adapt to our new climate reality. angles. Projects that achieve multiple from the detailed inundation maps The projects explored in these pages benefits, prepare us for multiple haz- developed by BCDC’s Adapting to Ris- range from daunting infrastructure ards, and consider multiple jurisdic- ing Tides (ART) project. A year later, improvements to climate-friendly tions offer the best path to resilience. the Resilient by Design Bay Area farming practices; they are driven by Some of the most exciting projects Challenge (RBD) elicited innovative county and municipal governments, explored in this issue will potentially visions for building resilient com- state and local agencies, community build communities that are not only munities in vulnerable areas. Since organizations, and even private land- resilient in the face of climate change, then, it has become clearer than owners. Strong planning and power- but altogether healthier and more liv- ever that climate change is upon us ful science inform them, including able. We can get there, but it will take now, and that it means much more ART’s new region-wide analyses. courage, collaboration, and conviction than melting icebergs and swelling Some projects seek to pick up where on everyone’s part.

PERSPECTIVE Bill 1 Advanced Adaptation Planning Program—but have been essential to For Resilience, Think Equity help build buy-in from local stakehold- ALLISON BROOKS, BAY AREA REGIONAL COLLABORATIVE ers, foster informed decision-making, and move creatively from planning to Never before ensure that every precious dime spent implementation. Local leaders urgent- has it been more is responsive to the current crisis and ly need these resources to prepare for important to imagine and invest in a serves as an investment in a more what’s ahead. future that is decidedly different than resilient and equitable future for all. As the world we are facing today. The this special issue of ESTUARY illumi- Early in the epidemic, the coordina- COVID-19 pandemic and the protests nates, the San Francisco Bay Area has tion demonstrated by Bay Area county sparked by police brutality have laid a diverse range of projects underway health departments was effective in out in stark terms the underlying sys- that—if fully funded rather than requir- saving lives. Soon individual health temic inequalities and racism in our ing years of slogging to piece together departments began tracking local data society that make poor, elderly, black, resources—could greatly accelerate on a more granular level to identify and brown people socioeconomically efforts to adapt. These projects include hot spots and stablize conditions. This vulnerable and expose them to trauma improvements to vulnerable infra- led to the current situation, where and risk. structure as well as community-based health departments tailor their policy responses to local circumstances, These vulnerabilities will only be strategies to manage local threats to health and safety. while at the same time embracing exacerbated by climate change, un- common policies like requiring masks less we work together now to achieve While stimulus packages often put and social distancing. multiple objectives: address inequality the focus on “shovel-ready” projects, and systemic racism; create equity in it’s useful to recognize that the best Climate change will demand simi- terms of health and access to oppor- way to build a fair, just, and resilient lar responses, including regional-scale tunity for low-income communities economy is to support projects that coordination, analysis, and resource of color; and invest in strategies to can achieve multiple objectives, ensur- generation to support local ingenuity. reduce the impacts of extreme storms, ing that future generations benefit Through this unprecedented experi- flooding, sea-level rise, wildfires, and from these one-time investments. This ence, individuals, communities, and lo- other hazards. COVID-19 also makes could mean embracing complicated cal leaders have all felt both hopeless an indisputable case for a decidedly projects that require multiple phases and hopeful. As we prepare for bigger unsexy focus on preparedness—mak- of engineering and environmental changes ahead, remembering both ing investments today to prepare our analysis, and that ensure local priori- our shared vulnerabilities and those of communities for an uncertain tomor- ties and needs are met through inclu- our most at-risk communities will be row. sive community engagement. key to building lasting resilience. As Congress and California’s state Some projects highlighted in this Allison Brooks is Executive Director of Bay government consider stimulus pack- issue have been funded in part by Area Regional Collaborative. ages intended to help our economy valuable grant programs that no recover, we have a responsibility to longer exist—such as Caltrans’ Senate 4 ESTUARY JUNE 2020

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Greener, Fatter Levees Boon to Richmond Resilience? DANIEL MCGLYNN, REPORTER ecologically important plant and ani- cities within the county, along with In early May, despite the now mal species. Existing wetlands in the the county itself (large swaths, like normal issues of groups gathering for vicinity are among the best examples North Richmond, are unincorporated video calls and virtual PowerPoints, of intact marsh environments left in and under county control) are plan- the San Francisco Bay Restoration the Bay Area. ning projects to prepare for future Authority voted unanimously to fund As the name implies, the North weather volatility. the early stages of a massive new Richmond Living Levee won’t just So far the adaptation efforts in infrastructure project along the North be a static flood control barrier. the county have been decentralized. Richmond shoreline with a grant The plans call for using the levee to There is no clear-cut guidance or of $644,709. The shoreline is now address local community demand overarching governance structure one step closer to becoming home for more access to the shoreline, as with the teeth or budget to hasten to a horizontal, or living, levee that most recently outlined in both the the pace of resiliency projects. The provides both flood protection and 2018 Resilient by Design challenge county does have a five-year-old cli- habitat. The proposed project, in the and the earlier North Richmond mate action plan focused on increas- planning stages since 2017, will be Shoreline Vision plan. Key among the ing the use of renewable energy. anchored near a wastewater treat- planned features is to use the levee Updates to the plan, now underway, ment plant managed by the West project to connect two segments of include better ways to measure and County Wastewater District. The facil- the Bay Trail. “The proposed project track progress toward goals. ity, just north of the Richmond Bridge will go beyond just protecting the Meanwhile, sea-level rise along and situated among the marshes fed water treatment plant ratepayers,” the county’s sprawling shoreline by Wildcat and San Pablo creeks, is Bradt says. “It will provide a greater continues at a rapid pace. According vulnerable to flooding. public benefit.” to a study prepared for the county A bulk of the grant will go toward The construction of a living levee last year by graduate students at UC geotechnical, topographical, and on the North Richmond shoreline Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public other studies of the site to figure out demonstrates the challenges and Policy, average projected countywide just how big the levee will become. opportunities of adapting to climate sea-level rise may hit up to a foot in “The proposed project will look at change — and reimagining what the next decade, two feet by 2050, two different scales,” says the San the future could hold throughout and more than five feet by the end of Francisco Estuary Partnership’s Contra Costa County. Many of the 19 the century. Josh Bradt, who is managing the Richmond project for the Restora- tion Authority. “One will study what it would take to build it just on wastewater district property, while the other will study what it would take to expand the project from Castro Cove in the south all the way to Giant Marsh to the north.” The first option would mean 0.6 linear miles of levee and 2.6 acres of transitional habitat (the zone between tidally influenced marsh and uplands), while the second option would expand the levee to 4.5 linear miles and create 15 acres of transitional habitat. North Richmond’s future living levee will create a physical barrier between rising seas and critical infrastructure and make the treatment plant more climate resilient. Depending on the final scope, flood protection could extend to other infrastructure such as the Richmond Parkway and nearby communities. The levee also provides an area of retreat in the form of upland habitat for The North Richmond Living Levee study area. Source: Mithun 5

HIGHTIDE Anatomy of a Horizontal Levee Horizontal levees are to flood control what electric cars are to personal transportation. In both cases, the two innovations leverage existing infrastructure and ways of thinking while also making an attempt to be less environmentally damaging than their predecessors. As with some other nature-based adaptation strategies, the idea of a Channelized Rheem Creek has flooded neighborhoods in North Richmond and nearby Rollingwood. horizontal levee is relatively new. Photo: Margarito P Gomez So new, in fact, that there still isn’t agreement about what to call them Much of the potential for climate London, Contra Costa County sus- (ecotone levee and living levee are change adaptation in Contra Costa tainability coordinator and lead on its still in the running). Regardless of the County is outlined in a Bay Conserva- climate action plan. “There is a lot of name, the concept was first pio- tion and Development Commission concern about the impacts that has neered as part of shoreline protection (BCDC) Adapting to Rising Tides on health; disadvantaged communi- efforts along the Chesapeake Bay. (ART) report. The ART research cut ties are disproportionately impacted Imported to the San Francisco Bay the county into two halves. Findings by these activities.” Area, the first major horizontal levee on the western part of the county These concerns are leading some was constructed in 2015 for the Oro (Richmond to Bay Point) were pub- in the county to push for major struc- Loma Sanitary District in San Lorenzo lished in 2017, while the research for tural change in the local economy. (see “Nudging Natural Magic,’ Estu- the eastern part of the county (the “The Sustainability Commission, ary News, December 2017 ). Delta) was released in April of this which is a county advisory body, is A horizontal levee is a different year. The report identified three big recommending that the board of su- shape than a conventional riprap- near-term climate-related county- pervisors adopt a climate emergency over-dirt levee and can support wide issues. resolution,” says London. One of the vegetation. When built in combination The first is the loss of jobs and recommendations is to create a car- with water treatment infrastructure, the impact that rising seas and other bon transition advisory group. “[We this new kind of levee can provide weather-related disruptions will want to know] what it looks like for flood control as well as habitat and have on the local economy. Contra health, jobs, and revenues if there is water quality benefits. In the case less fossil fuel activity in the county Costa County is still very much de- of Oro Loma, treated freshwater — how do you plan for that?” from the plant is filtered through the fined by its working shoreline, which sloping, terraced levee, irrigating hosts four of the five major Bay Area Also on the environmental equity plantings. In the process, plants and refineries, as well as warehousing front, existing flood control initiatives microbial processes remove more and manufacturing facilities, and are not evenly distributed across nitrogen, phosphate, and pharmaceu- major railways. According to the 2017 the county. Efforts are underway to change that. On the banks of tical traces from the irrigation water ART report, there are 4,853 industry- than standard wastewater treatment, zoned acres at risk of flooding in the Rheem Creek — which flows through Richmond, the city of San Pablo, and according to Oro Loma studies. The county. All four major refineries fall design of the levee also creates an into that category. the unincorporated county neighborhoods of Rollingwood and North opportunity to restore, or at least The second ART finding is that Richmond — residents are currently mimic, historic marsh habitat. A well climate change impacts will not be working with the Watershed Project functioning marsh isn’t just a wide evenly dispersed among communi- (a Richmond-based nonprofit), the plain subject to the feast and famine ties and residents. Unless there is national conservation organization of tidal influence. Rather, a healthy a major change, the same com- American Rivers, staff from the City marsh is full of nuance and gradients munities that bear the brunt of the of Richmond, and other local stake- in the form of slopes and uplands that emissions and poor air quality from holders to study nature-based ways provide shelter — and in the case of the oil and gas sector — the county’s to make the creek function again. sea-level rise — a place for marsh largest industry — are the same species to retreat. DM For years the channelized Rheem ones likely to end up under water. Creek has flooded two blocks of the “The county contains seven out of neighborhood that lies on the border the ten largest industrial pollution sources in the Bay Area,” says Jody continued on next page 6 ESTUARY JUNE 2020 between the city of Richmond and taged communities in the Bay Area. greening projects. The Dogpatch and Rollingwood. With funding from the So we are engaged in placemaking Northwest Potrero Hill neighbor- Coastal Conservancy, a solutions- efforts, including better access to hood Green Benefit District in San oriented group was able to interview Wildcat Creek, which will hopefully Francisco is an example of how this community members about the make people more aware that they model could work. While that district creek’s history and behavior. The are living near the mouths of two raises money through parcel taxes, group found that most of the creek is major creeks in the East Bay,” says Gonzalez is advocating for alterna- choked with vegetation behind fences John Steere, a planner for Contra tive funding such as new traffic or on private property, and that the Costa County helping local groups redevelopment fees, mitigation fund- creek issues have been jurisdiction- build watershed connections. “Tying ing from polluting industries, and ally ambiguous, resulting in decades local jobs with green infrastructure climate adaptation funding for disad- of inaction. planning and maintenance is really a vantaged communities. “The idea is By piecing together the commu- public benefit.” that the more we get people involved nity interviews and some mapping There is plenty of recognition of and can pay them to be block ambas- work, the Rheem Creek group found the need for climate change adap- sadors or work on local conservation that the creek bed has risen higher tation projects, and no shortage of crews, then when the horizontal le- than the surrounding neighbor- ideas about what kinds of projects to vee comes online we can create local hood in some places due to years of build or organize. Between federal, jobs and local stewardship.” sediment build-up. The group is now state, and local funding bodies, there In a larger context, the North Rich- studying how best to fix the situation isn’t even a lack of money to get mond living levee project is a dem- with nature-based solutions. Ideas these projects off the ground. The onstration of what can happen when include planting shade trees to stifle biggest bottleneck in the resiliency several major stakeholders work to- creekside thickets and incorporating pipeline is reluctance among local gether — along with a strong commu- floodplain into a local park design. governments, land managers, and nity voice. The working group for the “There’s not much we can do with grantees to back projects that have North Richmond living levee includes the actual channelized structure of no clear strategy for covering the officials from the county, the city of the creek,” says Aysha Massell, di- long-term expenses of nature-based Richmond, the wastewater district, rector of California Integrated Water infrastructure like rain gardens, ur- Chevron, and the East Bay Regional Systems for American Rivers. “But ban forests, and complete streets. Park District, all collaborating to fig- we intend to develop a robust moni- “There has to be funding for ure out how to make the most of the toring and maintenance plan.” green infrastructure operations project. “I really hope this approach of What marries all of the climate and maintenance, otherwise that’s developing alignment among multiple change adaptation plans and proj- where those projects go to die,” stakeholders is something that will ects together in Contra Costa County says Juliana Gonzalez, the executive take off,” Bradt says. “Especially if it is the opportunity to create a new director of the Watershed Project. can show that there is a way to lever- sector of the economy and local Gonzalez and Steere are working age resources and dollars to have a jobs that foster equity, access, and a to create a Green Benefit District, greater impact.” strong sense of place. “North Rich- which is a potential new funding CONTACT [email protected]; mond is one of the most disadvan- model for long-term restoration and [email protected]

Students from a San Francisco State Wetlands Ecology class plant Suaeda californica over an arbor of tree branches in the transition zone of a multi-habitat living shorelines experiment at Contra Costa’s Giant Marsh. The arbors will provide areas of high water refuge for wetland birds and mammals. Read more and see videos of this landscape scale experiment in shoreline adaptation, in which oyster reefs and eelgrass beds will help buffer the county from the advancing Bay, in Estuary News June 2019, Supershore at Giant Marsh. Photo: Katharyn Boyer. 7

SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY San Francisco Prepares for Water From All Directions ISAAC PEARLMAN, REPORTER “Even a city with as many resources as San Francisco has can’t do this [alone],” says Lindy Lowe, speaking of the climate change threats looming over the City by the Bay. “It’s too big.” The perils San Francisco faces include three-to-ten feet of sea-level rise this century, a sharp increase in extreme heat days, and more severe floods and drought. As city officials grapple with today’s severe housing and inequality crises, they are also confronting the need to preserve aging infrastructure, such as the city’s hundred-year-old stormwater system and a busy international airport that sits below sea-level. But perhaps no one confronts a bigger challenge than Lowe, director of the Port of San Francisco’s Waterfront Resilience Program: reinforce the city’s 7.5-mile bayside shoreline, San Francisco is expected to see 12” to 24” of sea-level rise by 2050 and up to 66” by 2100. where a sagging century-old seawall built atop unstable, muddy fill is all critical seismic weaknesses and flood residents value most for protection that stands between the rising San risks as part of its 20-year, $5 billion and adaptation. Francisco Bay and $22 billion worth waterfront resilience initiative. Armed All this will inform what solu- of real estate. with $425 million in bond funding that tions are available. In 2018, the Port San Francisco voters passed in 2018, “A strong earthquake could move partnered with the United States the Port has bored below ground to the Embarcadero seawall bayward,” Army Corps of Engineers to begin test the soil strength underneath the Lowe explains. A big seismic event the process of soliciting federal seawall, collected high-resolution would churn the muddy soil un- funds for fixing the seawall. This year bathymetry, and modeled future wave derneath the seawall and most of will reveal which path the waterfront and flood impacts along the water- the waterfront into a soupy liquid, will take moving forward. “Right now front. Equally important, the Port rupturing streets and utilities and we are at this really critical pivot,” began intensive community outreach causing the seawall to collapse. Like says Lowe. “Over the next six months and engagement in the downtown, loosening a belt cinched tight around we’ll be advancing recommendations Mission Bay, and Islais Creek neigh- a swollen stomach, this release in all the buckets: near-term, mid- borhoods to enlist residents’ help in would allow the fill stacked behind term, and long-term.” identifying critical facilities and com- the seawall to slide into the Bay, munity assets. The San Francisco airport, on the and could fracture the waterfront as other hand, currently has a clear and much as 200 to 300 feet inland, due These efforts culminated in the simple path forward: build higher. to what’s known as “lateral spread.” Port’s multi-hazard risk assessment, “We’re like a small city,” points out San Francisco Bay would rush in one of the first of its kind in an era Joe Birrer, director of engineering over miles of waterfront that have when many agencies and plans tend and construction services at SFO. been filled and developed over the to focus narrowly on one impact, Besides runways and terminals, the past 150 years. “I don’t think of it as not how risks can interact. Com- airport operates its own substantial a seawall, I think of it as a retaining munity meetings and neighborhood electrical distribution and waste- wall.” Lowe says. “It was put in place outreach events have elicited valu- water systems. In 2015, updated to hold all the fill put into the bay able knowledge from local citizens: flood maps from the Federal Emer- from the late 1800s to early 1900s.” for example, how the consequences gency Management Agency showed of losing waterfront ferry landings, Galvanized by an alarming 2016 a 100-year storm could overwhelm power substations, or bus and train report calculating a 72% chance of a airport levees and inundate most of lines would ripple throughout the city large earthquake in the Bay Area by and region, and what local assets 2043, the Port is now racing to identify continued on next page 8 ESTUARY JUNE 2020 the runways, which lie below sea- level. “We realized we are at a much greater risk of flooding than previously thought,” Birrer says. Built in 1927 atop filled-in marsh and cow pasture, the airport is now one of the busiest in the United States, serving more than 50 million people per year. Most of the earthen berms and seawalls holding back the Bay from runways were built 40 years ago, and today tides seep into gaps and occasionally overtop them during storms — though the airport hasn’t yet had to interrupt service due to flooding. “We take this seri- ously,” Birrer says. “It doesn’t have to happen today, but we need a long- term process that will protect the airport well into the future.” In 2015 the San Francisco Board of Supervisors set out to improve the airport’s shoreline protection, approving a $58 million project to protect it from With a shift in project scope from the Embarcadero Seawall to waterfront-wide resilience, the Port 11 inches of sea-level rise. This project has made an extra effort in recent years to engage residents across its entire 7.5 mile jurisdiction. was scrapped in 2018, after the State Here, Bayview Hunters Point residents vet draft program goals and prioritize flood impacts at a January 2020 Islais Creek community meeting with the Port, SF Planning, USACE, and other partners. of California released much higher Photo: Port of San Francisco sea-level projections. The current proposal, approved last September, one that caused the Great Flood ing on the horizon. “It’s critical to co- will raise the airport’s entire 10-mile of 1862 could occur every 40 to 50 ordinate among different agencies so perimeter by five feet, reinforcing the years in the Bay Area. And as stron- we are not creating any unintended perimeter with miles of sheet pile ger storms pummel San Francisco negative consequences by protecting walls and concrete. The new bill is and increase inland flooding, hotter one asset without taking into consid- $587 million, though with 30 years of weather will decimate the Sierra eration other assets,” says Sandra bond interest payments the total cost snowpack that currently provides Hamlat, principal resilience analyst will end up around $1.7 billion. The 85% of the city’s water. pricetag seems worth it: according to for the City of San Francisco. SFO’s own research, the airport helps In order to prepare San Fran- Hamlat has been leading the generate $72 billion of economic activ- cisco’s creaky stormwater infra- Climate Resiliency Integration team, structure for these stronger storms ity annually in the Bay Area. an additional group that is, in true and more frequent droughts, the San By adding three feet to pro- Francisco Public Utilities Commis- bureaucratic fashion, tasked with tect against sea-level rise, and an sion (PUC) has been installing rain helping various departments col- additional two feet to counteract gardens, permeable pavement, and laborate on climate change re- waves, airport officials say their bioretention planters in neighbor- sponses. But lately, the unexpected new shoreline protection will serve hoods across the city. These projects COVID-19 emergency has demanded until at least 2085 in all but the most help prepare for larger storms by di- San Francisco’s full attention. “Right extreme sea-level-rise scenarios. verting runoff that could overwhelm now I’ve been deployed as a disaster “The system we are putting in place the city’s antiquated stormwater service worker, but we’re still trying is supposed to address 36 inches of system. Additionally, they naturally to do as much climate resilience as sea-level rise and a 100-year storm,” filter runoff and allow more rain to we possibly can,” says Hamlat, who says Birrer. “If we curb our emis- percolate into the soil, replenishing optimistically hopes the lessons the sions, we will be protected beyond San Francisco’s groundwater. The city is learning from today’s crisis 2085. I imagine the people who come PUC is also looking at using building will inform future ones. after us, it will be on their minds as code changes to modernize the city’s they watch what happens.” stormwater system over time. San And so as we social distance into Francisco is one of the last cities in the summer, and stagger back to But the shoreline isn’t San our feet after COVID-19’s gut-punch, Francisco’s only battle zone against California to use combined stormwater and sewage pipes; most cities San Francisco officials and plan- climate change. Storms will be ners begin returning to the work of stronger and more frequent. By 2100, now separate the two. preparing for the much larger blows atmospheric rivers are expected to Grandiose infrastructure projects that await from climate change. be more common, and could de- aside, one smaller step is to ensure liver as much as half of California’s the city’s numerous agencies and CONTACT [email protected]; annual rain in torrential downfalls. departments work better together to [email protected]; Two-hundred-year storms like the confront the climate impacts hover- [email protected] 9

Dr. Kristina Hill, professor at UC Berkeley’s Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Plan- Big Projects, Wet Feet? ning, isn’t buying it. “There are docu- ISAAC PEARLMAN, REPORTER nia estimates sea-level rise of up to ments from the 1990s pointing out the sea-level-rise problem,” she says. On September 3, 2019, Golden State ten feet by 2100 — a figure seemingly incongruous with the lower numbers “Developers and the engineers they

Warriors CEO Rick Welts stood proudly ZOOM: DEVELOPMENT hired often chose a middle number, in front of the newly inaugurated $1.4 used by developers, and one that because it sounded reasonable. But billion Chase Center basketball arena. would push many of these new mega- they knew [it could be worse].” “A brand new journey starts today,” he developments into risky flood zones. promised the assembled luminaries For example, the Central Bay’s $6 Currently each project has the and fans. Having built on Mission Bay’s billion Treasure Island development flexibility to choose from the State of watery footprint, the Warriors defend- is designed to withstand three feet of California’s high, medium, or low sea- ed their new arena against sea-level sea-level rise. The $1 billion Alameda level-rise projections to determine its rise, saying in an official statement it Point in the East Bay is built for 18 own risk based on unique site charac- will stay dry in 2100 “even with the an- inches, with contingencies for higher teristics, lifespan, and consequence. ticipated 36 inches of sea-level rise.” levels. The overhaul of the Potrero “Not every project constructed today is completely resilient to the flood risk Just three weeks later, a massive Power Station in San Francisco’s it might encounter in 2100,” points out $1 billion dollar housing and commer- Dogpatch neighborhood, which on Ethan Lavine, chief of permits at the cial development less than a mile up- April 21 became the first development San Francisco Bay Conservation and shore from the Chase Center received virtually approved by the city due to Development Commission (BCDC). permission to break ground. Dubbed coronavirus, is designed for 6.9 feet of “But each is being built in such a way “Mission Rock,” the project is also sea-level rise. The Pier 70 project di- they should be able to adapt to that designed for sea-level rise: 66 inches rectly adjacent to Potrero will be about flood risk when the time comes to by 2100. In other words, almost twice 1.5 feet lower than its neighbor, and do so.” BCDC has rigorously applied as much as its waterfront neighbor. its waterfront park will be even lower. These four projects alone total over sea-level-rise policies requiring that Over the past decade a wave of $10 billion, and will provide 13,000 projects be designed to withstand ex- these shoreline “mega-developments” housing units (though only about 25% pected 2050 levels and have plans for have hit the Bay Area. Since 2010, of them affordable) and hundreds of adapting to 2100 levels. developers have sunk $22 billion into acres of parks, trails, and other public A few forward-thinking developers more than a dozen waterfront projects waterfront amenities. But how is it have planned for adaptation, acknowl- less than eight feet above today’s high- possible they use such different sea- edging the need to be ready if the San tide line. level-rise numbers? Francisco Bay rises higher and faster “In San Francisco, almost half of all “These developments have been than what they have designed for. new housing development in the city in the works for many years, and the Treasure Island, Pier 70, and Mission is concentrated along the waterfront,” projections have changed over time,” Rock are committed to monitoring says Emily Loper, policy director for explains Loper. In 2012, for example, local sea-level rise and developing the economic development advocacy the upper range of projected sea-level future plans to improve drainage and group Bay Planning Coalition. rise for California was 55 inches, or shoreline protection as needed. Mis- These projects promise thousands 4.6 feet by 2100. In 2018, the State of sion Rock even makes this a compo- of much-needed housing units, mil- California issued revised estimates nent of its shoreline park, with plans lions of square feet of commercial that now top out at 6.9 to 10 feet by the for terraced shelves to mark different space, and acres of waterfront public end of this century. continued on next page space. However, the State of Califor-

Shoreline terraces at Mission Rock’s waterfront park are designed to show daily tidal heights and the rise of San Francisco Bay over time. Rendering: Tishman Speyer, Scape 10 ESTUARY JUNE 2020

Another issue is that these developers will be long gone in 20 or 30 years, when the one-to-two feet of sea-level rise that they have designed for is lap- ping at our doorsteps. Which raises the question, who will be left to pick up the bill if and when these developments flood? As the San Francisco Bay gradually creeps higher, it is not New housing for seniors at Alameda Point. pad heights. Additionally, factoring in clear who will be liable for develop- Rendering courtesy Eden Housing higher sea-level rise could increase ments that suddenly find themselves tidal heights and the upwards creep costs of toxic waste cleanup for legacy in the flood hazard zone, nor what the contaminants in projects like Bayview of the Bay over time. All three projects requirements are for flood insurance Hunters Point, Candlestick, and Trea- will use fees generated via special and disclosures pertaining to future sure Island. Still, it’s not as if money community facilities districts to help flood hazards. Not to mention the legal pay for future adaptation measures. is lacking: a real estate development industry standard is 20% return on mess that would result if flooding goes However even these adaptation investment, though individual projects through an underbuilt property to its attempts are fraught with uncertain- can vary widely. neighbor, or adjacent public streets. ties, such as how exactly to monitor Even so, many developments tend “A lot of this is going to come out in and enforce a permit requirement 30 the courts,” says Hill. “And we’re still years into the future, or if the adapta- to fall back on unimaginative (and waiting to see how the public trust tion accounts will have sufficient funds cheaper) adaptation strategies based doctrine will be interpreted as the tide when they are needed. And few appear on simply fortifying the shoreline. to plan for the fact that due to stron- “We’re supposed to be a futuristic gets higher. That’s why it’s so important ger storms, extreme water levels will region, a tech region, and we’re doing that the region starts planning ahead become more frequent. For example, a seawalls?” asks Hill incredulously. and blocking developments that will be study this year found historical 50-year “How lame, when we could be talk- fragile and expensive.” ing about floating cities and extensive water heights could be an annual oc- As if there weren’t enough barriers beaches and wetlands.” currence by 2050. to sea-level-rise adaptation, the eco- “No doubt an adaptive approach Another reason could be reliance nomic downturn caused by the corona- requires additional coordination over on public infrastructure for protec- virus pandemic will inevitably tighten time,” admits Lavine. “But I think it tion. Hundreds of millions of taxpayer adaptation and resilience budgets. only makes sense that a project built dollars are currently dedicated to Loper points out optimistically that this today that will be around for 75 to 100 raising miles of levees in Foster City makes the private developer adaptation and the South Bay, as well as but- years or more will need to commit to commitments even more essential, but tressing and eventually replacing planning and implementing measures concedes a regional shoreline protec- to adapt its shoreline.” the San Francisco seawall (see page 7). In addition to shielding essential tion plan is critical. Other projects, however, have a public facilities like ferry landings, “There has to be a larger strategy more laissez-faire attitude towards fire and police stations, utilities, and in place so that these projects are sea-level rise. The Chase Center, with waterfront streets, these massive not simply islands of resilience,” its sunken arena floor and basement public works will also end up pro- agrees Lavine. practice courts below Bay level, relies tecting billions of dollars of private on one of the lowest figures for future property. It is likely no coincidence Hill, however, is more blunt. “We sea-level rise at three feet by 2100. Its that the Golden State Warriors were have a choice between leaving future “adaptation plan” to install floodgates major funders of Proposition A, the generations vulnerable properties and curbs appears to simply shunt San Francisco seawall bond, which and rigid seawalls, or resilient prop- floodwater away from the arena, where passed in 2018. Or that Facebook, Inc. erties and dynamic wetlands,” she it could collect in adjacent streets and donated money toward the SAFER says. “Do we want to leave behind a parcels. The $218 million luxury condo Bay project that will end up shielding legacy, or liability?” project at 75 Howard Street (also known its Menlo Park waterfront campus as One Steuart Lane) and the $42.6 Note: Isaac Pearlman formerly worked at from rising waters. million Tidelands Condominiums in San BCDC as an environmental scientist. Mateo appear to somehow have left out “I’m sure private projects that CONTACT sea-level rise altogether in their design. haven’t adequately prepared for sea- [email protected]; Notably, all three of these projects were level rise are counting on public funds built outside of BCDC’s jurisdiction. to provide protection in the future,” Hill [email protected]; [email protected] Why are these developments using says. lower sea-level-rise estimates, and “We absolutely need to plan for how therefore increasing their risk? One these major shoreline protection proj- simple factor is the cost of importing ects can be accomplished with equity dirt to raise grades, building floodwater as a primary, co-equal goal [to protec- retention projects, and lifting building tion],” adds Lavine diplomatically. 11

SANTA CLARA COUNTY planning Forty Miles of Creek, Silicon Valley 2.0 Reboot Six Adaptation Projects When it comes to climate adap- ROBIN MEADOWS, REPORTER tation, it seems like everyone from municipalities to resource agencies has a plan. Now Santa Clara County In 2017, a perfect storm hit the City reservoir, which was already almost full is rebooting its 2015 climate resilien- of San Jose in Santa Clara County. The when the atmospheric river rolled in. cy initiative, Silicon Valley 2.0, with stage was set by a series of late winter “That was the trigger,” says O’Connell, an eye towards coordinating them rains that left the ground soggy and the City of San Jose’s liaison with Valley all. Call it Silicon Valley 3.0. creeks brimming. Then, on February Water, the agency that supplies water 21, a whopper of an atmospheric river and manages flooding in the county. Strengths of the current version struck. “It dropped three inches of rain About 32,000 acre feet — 10 billion gal- include a powerful online inter- in the upper Coyote watershed,” recalls lons — surged over the dam’s spillway, face for assessing climate impacts. Mike O’Connell, a deputy director in overwhelming Coyote Creek down- “Plans often sit on the shelf,” says San Jose Public Works. Coyote Creek, stream. “You can’t stop that amount of Jasneet Sharma, who heads Santa which winds through the heart of the water,” he adds. Clara County’s Office of Sustainabil- ity. “But Silicon Valley 2.0 is really city, overtopped its banks, flooding busi- Most of the time, Anderson Reservoir a decision support tool for cities.” nesses and hundreds of homes up to is nowhere near full: it’s restricted to Users can drill down to specifics, depths of six feet. Thousands of people 58% capacity due to seismic concerns. such as the vulnerability of roads to were evacuated and property damages In October 2020 that will go down to flooding, with a graphic display that’s exceeded $70 million. zero because the latest study shows the easy to take in at a glance. As winter rains intensify with climate entire dam needs to be replaced. “It’s a change, flooding will worsen in Santa public safety risk,” says Rechelle Blank, The reboot will update this online Clara County, the Bay Area’s largest a Valley Water civil engineer. Anderson tool to be even more user friendly. by population, with about 1.8 million Dam was built in 1950 over a major fault, For example, vulnerability and risk people, and second largest by area at and would not withstand a magnitude 6.6 maps will be interactive by default. In about 1,300 square miles. In the hills earthquake. A dam breach at full capac- addition, new options will include an edging the Santa Clara Valley, which ity could flood a 70-mile-long area from index for social vulnerability as well extends the length of the county, wild- San Francisco Bay to Monterey Bay. as downloadable fact sheets on the fire is also a threat. On the valley floor, The new dam will have a larger outlet impacts of each climate hazard. where most of the people live, major for releasing water gradually during threats in addition to riverine flooding Another priority for the reboot is storms, in contrast to 2017’s overflow. strengthening coordination with other are blistering hot summer days and “In the end we’ll get a dam with more shoreline flooding as San Francisco planning efforts countywide. “Many flexibility,” O’Connell says. “It’ll be safer climate impacts don’t stop at jurisdic- Bay rises. The Coyote Creek system — for all of the South Bay.” Another benefit 1,500 miles of waterways that drain a tional boundaries,” Sharma says. “We is that returning the reservoir to full hope to provide a platform that will 350-square-mile watershed — connects capacity will boost local water storage half a dozen elements that are key to bring us all together in a coordinated during the dry years to come, reducing regional strategy.” She envisions iden- climate adaptation, from reservoirs to the county’s reliance on imported water. creek confluences to the Bay shore. tifying best practices, sharing solu- The project is currently projected to cost tions, co-creating toolkits, and offering The creek runs 40 miles from An- $575 million and wrap up in 2029. In May training for cities with less capacity. derson Reservoir in the Diablo Range a bill to expedite the dam replacement “There’s a lot to be done,” she says. foothills to the Bay shore near Alviso, unanimously passed the state assem- “We’re just getting started.” RM passing through San Jose, the largest bly’s Water, Parks & Wildlife Committee. city in the county with nearly one million CONTACT people. The 2017 flood began at the continued on next page [email protected]

Looking north over the Coyote Valley to San Jose and San Francisco Bay. Photo: Santa Clara Valley Open Space Authority 12 ESTUARY JUNE 2020 Below the reservoir, Coyote Creek to lower the risk of flooding along the “We want a vegetated floodbench is getting some much-needed work creek through San Jose will cost about with a meandering creek.” Restor- along nine miles that are prone to $80 million and are scheduled to finish ing this floodplain will entail setting flood. The City of San Jose put up in 2025. the levees back a couple of hundred $100,000 for clearing debris from Valley Water is also putting the feet; luckily there’s plenty of room the channel to speed flood water finishing touches on a plan for four to do this. “We can widen the creek conveyance; Valley Water’s efforts miles of Upper Penitencia Creek, because most of the lands have been include installing short flood walls to which flows into Coyote Creek and preserved,” he adds. This project, protect homes on the edges of open has the potential to flood about 8,000 estimated at $24 million, is scheduled space during really high floods. “We homes and businesses, as well as the for completion in 2026. built a lot of parks next to the creek just-built Berryessa BART Station. Besides working with nature on the to buffer the land,” O’Connell says. “This creek has flooded many times ground, Valley Water is embracing the As rainstorms become more severe, and comes close every time there’s a latest flood prevention technology in the parks will double as flood basins. significant rain event,” Rouhani says. the atmosphere. In 2019, the agency Valley Water will also relocate or raise Damages could run into the hundreds installed an X-band radar system on about 10 homes built in the creek of millions of dollars. top of its Penitencia Water Treatment channel beginning in the 1800s. Upper Penitencia Creek is the larg- Plant in the hills bordering San Jose. “If I’ve learned anything in my 25 est free-flowing stream in the water- X-band radar picks up rain at lower years here, it’s that you have to give shed, providing important habitat for elevations than the existing S-band creeks room to move,” says Valley Wa- steelhead trout. As with Coyote Creek, radar system, and is the first part of a ter planning engineer Afshin Rouhani, Valley Water also plans to return this new $27 million system that is cur- explaining that this slows the water, one to as natural a state as possible rently scheduled to cover the entire decreasing flooding and bank erosion. within the confines of local develop- Bay Area by the end of 2021. “A lot of “The more you stay away from the ment. “It was connected to Coyote our rainfall comes from atmospheric active part of the creek, the more resil- Creek through a very small ditch by rivers and many of these storms are ience it has to climate change.” Efforts farmers in the 1800s,” Rouhani says. so low lying that they’re not picked up

Creek Confluence Plan

Vision for the confluence of Coyote Creek and Upper Penitencia Creek (1a modifies the creek channel and improves habitat; 1b extends improvements and mitigation. 13 by the current system,” says Emily Zedler, a Valley Water civil engineer. San Jose Hot Spots Overlap with Lower Income Areas X-band radar also offers far sharper resolution than S-band — 100 meters versus one kilometer — that allows tracking rain in near-real time. This now-casting will streamline emergency operations. “We’ll be able to say where we think the heaviest rain is going to be in 30 minutes to an hour, and deploy people who are out on the job,” Zedler says, noting that this ca- pability will be increasingly important as storms become more extreme with climate change. In the county’s urban areas away from waterways, heat islands are a concern. “Places with a lot of hard- scape, especially asphalt, absorb heat and then radiate it out,” explains Ken Davies, deputy director of the City of Heat risk by census tract (climate change is already making hot days hotter). Recent median San Jose’s Climate Smart San Jose. summer surface temperature (from 89-111 degrees F, yellow to red) overlap with low income Air temperatures in cities can spike 22 distribution (dark purple 14-45% of population living below two times federal poverty level). degrees above those in nearby rural Sources: Census Bureau, USGS, NASA, NPR study areas, putting children, the elderly, and those in poor health at risk. Where Coyote Creek meets the Bay, affordable,” says Neil Hedgecock, chief sea-level rise is the greatest climate of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers On days when temperatures soar threat. The South Bay shoreline from San Francisco District’s Interagency above 97 degrees, the City of San Jose Palo Alto to Milpitas is packed with and Civil Works Branch. opens 10 community centers to provide offices and homes built on low-lying Cost-cutting possibilities include respite for people without air condition- land, making it one of the state’s riski- ing. Davies expects the need for these relaxing criteria for the vast quantity of est areas for flood damages. In 2005, a soil — one million cubic yards — need- centers to grow: high heat days in San team that includes Valley Water and the Jose are projected to increase from the ed to build the levee. Current environ- U.S. Army Corps of Engineers launched mental and engineering requirements current five or 10 to about 24 per year the South San Francisco Bay Shoreline by 2050. To pinpoint the areas of great- are so stringent that suppliers have Project to assess flood risks along the to custom-mix a lot of the soil, which est need, the city will map heat islands. county’s entire 18-mile shore. “Trees and parks can mitigate heat so drives up expenses. In addition, both you tend to find more severe effects in The assessment revealed that the truck frequency and delivery hours are disadvantaged communities,” he says. risk is greatest in San Jose’s Alviso limited at the construction site’s ac- “There are more rentals so people have neighborhood, which has subsided as cess routes, which are in Alviso Marina less control over adding trees.” much as six feet due to historic ground- County Park and Don Edwards San water overdrafts. All that stands be- Francisco Bay National Wildlife Ref- tween Alviso and the Bay is berms built uge. Restrictions on delivery frequency to separate the area’s former commer- make construction less efficient; cial salt ponds. “They are just rings of restrictions on delivery hours are not mud,” says Valley Water’s Blank. “We cost-effective for contractors, who need to build an engineered levee.” The must still pay full-day fees for truck- Alviso section of the Shoreline Levee ing. “We’ve got to find a way to work project will entail a four-mile, 15-foot together,” Blank says. “We all want levee from Alviso Marina County Park the same thing.” to the Coyote Creek Bypass Channel, as CONTACT [email protected]; well as a nearly 3,000-acre tidal marsh [email protected]; restoration that includes an ecotone [email protected]; slope; completion dates could be as [email protected]; early as 2024 for the levee and 2032 for [email protected]; the restoration. The project received Neil Hedgecock via $61 million from Measure AA towards a [email protected] total cost of about $200 million. But in February the project hit a snag. “Bids came in at twice the Corps’ estimate of $17.6 million,” Blank says. Stockpiling dirt in advance of shoreline “We were shocked.” Now the team is project at Alviso site. May 2019. regrouping. “We believe we can find Photo courtesy USCOE the cost savings to make this project 14 ESTUARY JUNE 2020 SAN MATEO COUNTY Adaption Complexities Spur Planning Innovation CARIAD HAYES THRONSON, REPORTER Bay. From the highway, the traveler county most at risk from sea-level Driving over the Bay flats toward might not guess at the vastly dif- rise, at least in dollar terms. A vul- the Dumbarton Bridge’s western ferent worlds on either side. To the nerability assessment completed in approach, it’s easy to imagine how east lie almost all of the county’s 20 2018 found that in a mid-range sea- a few feet of sea-level rise could cities, encompassing the spectrum level rise scenario, property worth submerge the roadway. The bridge of socio-economic conditions, in- $34 billion would be flooded on the touches down only 750 feet from the cluding leafy Silicon Valley suburbs, bayshore and the coast north of Half shoreline, and the approach skims tech mogul estates, and low-income Moon Bay. Facing that reality, the just above the fill it’s built on. With communities perched at the edge of county’s leadership has undertaken at least three to six feet of sea-level the Bay, as well as transportation some of the Bay Area’s boldest steps rise a virtual certainty by the end infrastructure that includes Highway toward protecting its shores. of the century, the approach and 101, two transbay bridge approaches, and San Francisco International Air- Flood Control adjacent communities are the focus for a Changing Climate of a new multi-agency resilience port. West of 280, beyond the wooded study scheduled for release in June. mountains, hundreds of square miles Traditional flood control agencies The study, with participants includ- of farmland and open space, as well don’t have the flexibility and resourc- ing the Metropolitan Transportation as the beachside towns of Half Moon es to help multiple cities collaborate Commission, San Francisquito Creek Bay and Pacifica, spill to the edge of to confront the climate change hydra Joint Powers Authority (SFCJPA), the Pacific Ocean. of rising seas, coastal erosion, flood- CalTrans, cities of East Palo Alto Over the past decade, the county ing from major storms, and higher and Menlo Park, and the Bay Area has made responding to climate groundwater levels. Recognizing this, Regional Collaborative among oth- change a priority, establishing in January 2020 the county trans- ers, is the most recent example of several new programs within the formed its long-standing but limited the integrative approach to climate Office of Sustainability. The Climate flood control district into a new adaptation that characterizes many Ready Collaborative brings together countywide Flood and Sea-level Rise of the county’s efforts. leaders from different sectors and Resiliency District. “It’s not realistic to think that each city could address Different Worlds jurisdictions to explore adaptation solutions, while SeaChange SMC these challenges singlehandedly,” The section of Interstate 280 that focuses specifically on sea-level rise. says County Supervisor Dave Pine, runs down the middle of San Mateo chair of the new District’s Board of Wildfire and excessive heat are County has often been called the Directors. “We wanted to create an emerging as local climate concerns, “World’s Most Beautiful Freeway,” organization that could work across but it is water — too much of it — offering panoramic views of the jurisdictions and create expertise for that worries local officials most. Santa Cruz Mountains and Crystal the long run.” With shore on both sides, San Mateo Springs Reservoir, as well as the County is considered the California One of the new agency’s initial pri- occasional glimpse of San Francisco orities is addressing flooding at Bay- front Canal, a sliver of Redwood City and unincorporated San Mateo County that has flooded “in almost any size storm” for decades. Atherton, Red- wood City, Menlo Park, and the County all have an interest in the project, which would reroute canal flows to the nearby Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge. “Historically, these entities haven’t been able to collaborate in the way that’s needed to make progress,” says Pine. “The new district can act as a quarterback to push the project forward.” Pine says the district has a design and is currently seeking permits and developing a new agreement among the partners In 2018 Foster City voters approved a $90 million general obligation bond to fund raising the city’s to fund construction. levee by five feet. Construction is expected to begin in fall 2020. Photo: Adele Thronson 15

Potential new initiatives for the Setting a Precedent ing studied to provide 100-year flood District include a shoreline protec- protection through a combination of tion project along the Burlingame- The new resilience district is not raised banks downstream and reten- Millbrae Bayfront, where the two the county’s first collaborative effort tion basins built upstream on Stan- cities have conducted vulnerability to tackle large-scale flood protec- ford University land. assessments. Such a project would tion. Near the border with Santa Clara County, the SFCJPA — which The joint powers authority’s other be aligned with San Francisco Air- project, called SAFER Bay, covers port to the north and might include includes the new District, the cities of Palo Alto, Menlo Park, and East 11 miles of shoreline, from Palo Oculus, Facebook’s virtual reality Alto’s southern border to Redwood venture, which will soon occupy a Palo Alto, as well as Valley Water — is continuing a multi-project effort City. In 2019 the SFCJPA completed new office complex on the Burlin- a feasibility study of alternatives game shore. Additionally, says Pine, to prevent flooding from storms and sea-level rise along the creek and at for protecting the Palo Alto portion, the District is committed to iden- which is now in the hands of the city. tifying projects along the county’s its mouth. In 2018, it completed the largest multi-jurisdictional sea-level For the San Mateo County portion of coastline to champion. The District the shoreline, the authority is in the will focus its initial efforts in or north rise project in California along the Bay shoreline, and last September, process of designing and performing of Half Moon Bay, but SeaChange environmental analysis for a combi- SMC’s South Coast Sea-level Rise the SFCJPA board certified the final EIR for its Upstream of Highway 101 nation of horizontal levees and other Study, a vulnerability assessment features in East Palo Alto and Menlo for the coast south of Half Moon Bay project, which will address persistent flooding in its three cities. Phase One Park, near the Dumbarton Bridge and now underway, may suggest new the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration possibilities. of the project will protect against a 70-year flood event by widening the project. creek channel and replacing two continued on next page bridges. A second phase is now be-

WATERWAYS creek’s native ecology to improve The report will also include a tool- flood risk and create public access kit for other communities. “We think along the creek corridor to the wa- Colma Creek is fairly typical of condi- Simple and terfront. Mullane expects to release tions in many cities around the Bay,” a report in July that will outline says Mullane. “We found 40 creeks Powerful for various scenarios and rank their that previously connected communi- Colma Creek? costs vs. benefits. “We’re hoping ties to the Bay but are now cut off to get a continuous pedestrian and by a freeway and flood. Everybody’s At South San Francisco’s Colma bike connection all the way along the seeing this opportunity to restore Creek, one of the sites of the 2018 creek over, under or around 101,” he them, and turn back towards them, Resilient by Design Bay Area Chal- says. “We’ll also highlight funding for amenities and recreation.” Mul- lenge, the Hassell+ team received opportunities at a regional and state lane says the report will describe the a grant from the Bay Area Regional level because we really think that’s trade-offs between restoration, flood Collaborative — and later a Prior- part of our commitment to the city management, and public access and ity Conservation Area grant — to [of South San Francisco], rather than show how those objectives can be develop “the simplest and most just making big, beautiful images balanced. CHT powerful idea in our proposal,” ac- and putting pressure on a small city cording to Hassell’s Richard Mullane. CONTACT to deliver.” That idea is to adapt and restore the [email protected]

The Colma Creek corridor project would connect the community with the shoreline. Source: Hassell 16 ESTUARY JUNE 2020

“The first phase of work is to protect about 90% of East Palo Alto properties, and, in Menlo Park, restore two former salt ponds,” says Len Materman, who headed the SFCJPA for more than 11 years before taking the helm at the new countywide District on May 1. “If we restore both ponds, it’s over 600 acres that would be mitigation for the impacts of protecting both cities.” The SFCJPA is also one of the one of the participants in the Dumbarton Bridge study. In addition to homes, businesses, habitat, and transportation infrastructure, the study area contains a PG&E substation, a fire department training facility, and Facebook’s headquarters, all of which are vulnerable to flooding from sea- level rise. The goal of the study is to develop adaptation alternatives for the area, including either building a levee along both sides of the bridge approach, or raising it and placing it on a causeway. How the choice among alternatives will be made — and who will make it — remain unclear. Funding Questions Remain Also unclear is who will foot the bill to tackle Dumbarton’s update and many other critical projects. “As of now we don’t have funding for concrete next steps,” says MTC’s Stephanie Hom. “Some of the partner agencies will continue to look for opportunities to move the work forward in whatever capacity that may be.” She expects the partners will work closely with the new resiliency district. Indeed, one of the priorities of the new district is to develop a long- term funding strategy. “We need to [consider whether the] county should have one or more mechanisms to fund these projects rather than hunt- ing for grants or cobbling together money from city general funds or special taxes,” says Materman. “As the county is thinking holistically about planning, it will also think holistically and creatively about funding” Of course, the ultimate costs are unknowable, as sea-level rise has no fixed end date. “You can’t simply come up with a plan, implement it, and call it a day,” says Pine. “It’ll be a challenge we have to confront for many, many decades or longer.” CONTACT: [email protected]; [email protected]

Dumbarton Bridge Resilience Study project area. Source: MTC. Top: Bridge causeway close to sea-level. Photo: Caltrans/John Huseby 17

managed retreat is especially unpalat- able in Pacifica, where the community has debated whether to protect the Retreat or Fight for shoreline with cement and rock or move back and allow the Pacific Ocean to migrate inland. Sea walls and piles of riprap can, at least temporarily, pro- Coastal Communities? ZOOM: OCEAN COAST ALASTAIR BLAND, REPORTER slow-motion tsunami. For some tect vulnerable structures from rising waters, but they have a very negative In the coastal getaway town of shoreline landowners, the implications side effect: by preventing natural sand Stinson Beach, king tides and storm seem simple. “We can either fight it or replenishment from inland deposits, surges regularly put roads and parking retreat,” says Willy Vogler, whose family such wave barriers can cause a beach lots underwater — wintertime events owns a share of Lawson’s Landing, a to disappear at the foot of a sea wall. that give locals an unnerving idea of 1,000-acre coastal property at the north This makes rigid shoreline protections what rising sea-level will look like end of Tomales Bay. Several feet of sea- very controversial and generally un- for the small community. “We know level rise will flood this campground sea-level rise is coming, but here, we and boat-launching destination, and favorable to state planners and many say we’ve already got it,” says Stinson while the site’s owners are now study- environmentalists. Beach homeowner Jeff Loomans, also ing their options for what to do as the Sam Schuchat, executive officer of the president of the Greater Farallones water rises, Vogler and his family — the California State Coastal Conser- Association, which has been active in owners here since 1928 — are fortunate vancy, believes fighting the swelling sea-level rise planning. enough to have an escape route: The ocean is a battle people will only lose parcel includes the hillside just east of Rising sea-level is no longer a and that many, if not most, vulnerable the water’s edge. “We could just back distant matter of if or when. Firm sci- communities will eventually have to up the hill,” Vogler says. ence and unyielding line graphs into retreat. “Nothing that we build is going the future make it clear: the swelling A few miles south, in Marshall, to protect us for very long,” he says. ocean is a reality that is shaping state the options are fewer. “There’s a bluff The diverse geography of the development policy and challenging right behind us — retreat isn’t an op- California coast, and each commu- coastal communities. Pushed for- tion for these homes,” says George nity’s integration into its particular ward by the unstoppable momentum Clyde, whose house stands on pilings landscape, makes sea-level planning of global warming, repeating waves over the water of Tomales Bay. Nor is very complicated. So do stiff regula- gnaw at the shore, causing beaches to relocation a viable option for most of tions on new coastal developments, vanish and sea cliffs to crumble. And the homes at Stinson Beach. The town which can impede homeowner ef- homes that once offered residents is backed by both the waters of Bolinas forts to upgrade their properties as a piece of the California dream now Lagoon and the protected slopes of the waters rise. Mount Tamalpais. serve as seaward windows into the Demographic variation among uncertain future of coastal living. “People talk about ‘managed re- coastal dwellers also shapes the way The ocean rose about six inches treat,’ but retreat to where?” says Jack different communities grapple with during the 20th century and it could Liebster, advance planning manager rise six to 10 feet more by 2100 — a for Marin County. The prospect of continued next page

Erosion threatens cliff-top buildings in Sonoma County. Photo: Jacoba Charles 18 ESTUARY JUNE 2020

In Northern California, nearly half Managed Retreat in Stages the coastline is preserved, and very little is developed. With little infrastructure to protect from rising seas, there has been scant investment in seawalls, rockpiles, and other protections. Sonoma and Marin counties, with 340 miles of coast between them, have armored, respectively, just 1.2% and 4.7% of the coast. San Mateo County, with almost 60 miles of coast, has armored 9%. San Francisco County’s short ocean coastline features a seawall for most of the length of Ocean Beach, but the total coastal mileage is only about 10. (Inside the Bay, the stats are skewed toward heavy armoring.) Still, there are a few oceanfront towns and scattered structures at risk Managed retreat involves removing waterfront structures and restoring dunes or marshes to provide a natural barrier. Source: ESA PWA as sea-level rises. Already, several seaside homes perched on crumbling rising sea-level. Poorer communities USGS research geologist Patrick bluffs north of Bodega Bay, at Glea- seem likelier to be lost — like Impe- Barnard has studied waves and son Beach, have been vacated by their rial Beach, at the border with Mexico. storms to help forecast climate im- owners, and state roadway officials Here, the ocean routinely surges onto pacts over the next 80 years. He says are planning to reroute a 3,000-foot the waterfront. Projections show in- California’s sea cliffs already retreat section of Highway 1 inland approxi- undation of whole neighborhoods in at a rate of a foot per year on aver- mately 400 feet. 80 years, and while many residents age (usually in the form of decadal In Pacifica, discussion of managed have called on leaders to fight the landslides). “That rate could double retreat has met fierce pushback from ocean, retreat looks inevitable. in the next century,” he says. homeowners like Mark Stechbart. Wealthy communities are like- Seawalls will only delay the pro- He says a managed retreat program lier to be pampered with shoreline cess for a geologic moment. Barnard would be far more expensive than the protection and mitigation efforts. explains that beach incision caused potential alternative of seawalls and Del Mar, in San Diego County, has by seawalls eventually undercuts beach replenishment. “We would lose rejected managed retreat as the the barrier itself. This can cause the a half or a third of the town,” he says. community looks ahead, and is barrier to topple. In the end, money “It would be a billion dollars. Who’s instead leaning toward enhanced is spent on ill-fated projects and the going to pay for that?” seawall protections. Similarly, sea still consumes everything: wall, Stechbart says a thousand homes, Malibu built a rock wall at the high- property, and cash. a shopping center, a sewage pumping tide line in 2010 to shield expensive Mitigating beach loss is possible plant, an RV park, a golf course, and homes on the bluffs above. This has but laborious. Some communities Highway 1 would have to be sacrificed had severe consequences for Broad run programs of dumping dredged under a managed retreat regime, Beach, which is now nearly gone and sand on impacted beaches, but which has been discussed in public becomes entirely submerged at the maintaining such life-support efforts forums. Facing intense opposition highest tides. The saga is a classic in perpetuity is a tall order. Beach from community members, however, California example of social beach nourishment programs in San Diego officials released a planning report in injustice — sacrificing the public County, for example, have been both February that makes scant mention of sand to save mansions. expensive and, in the end, ineffective. managed retreat. At the Surfrider Foundation, “Sand replenishment is not a long- Stechbart lives in a home at the California campaign director Jennifer term solution,” Savage says. foot of Montara Mountain, roughly a Savage feels the long-term public Along the heavily developed mile inland and 800 feet above sea- cost of coastal armoring must be Southern California coast, seawalls level. Still, he worries, homes like weighed against the private property and other revetments line 38% of the his will lose virtually all value “if the benefits they provide. Her group has shoreline south of Santa Barbara, Coastal Commission gets their way.” taken a general stance against sea- according to a 2018 report on shore- “They very callously want to kiss walls as a go-to measure to protect line armoring from California State shoreline structures. “With building off everything built in the past 43 University Channel Islands. Among years,” he says, referring to a clause any kind of hard armoring, we’re counties, Ventura has taken the firm- making the choice between protect- in the Coastal Act that allows “exist- est stance against the ocean, armoring” structures to be protected with ing what belongs to everyone and ing 58 percent of its coastline. protecting what belongs to private seawalls. But there has been much property owners,” Savage says. disagreement over what “exist- 19 ing” means. Lesley Ewing, a senior There is another idea, too: restor- munities, until sea-level rise makes engineer with the California Coastal ing wetland habitat along Bolinas La- that impossible.” Commission, says it describes homes goon. Such a “living shoreline” would Jack Ainsworth, executive direc- that existed prior to 1977, the year the employ native vegetation to hold the tor of the California Coastal Com- California Coastal Act became law. soil in place while natural sedimenta- mission, says the agency has been However, some stakeholders see tion adds to the habitat, effectively building the mudflats higher, keeping working with the County of Marin on a broader definition of the word. “We ZOOM: OCEAN COAST the shoreline abreast of the rising approaches to safe and sustainable think ‘existing’ means what’s there development in coastal hazard areas. right now,” Liebster says. This is the waterline, and shielding both homes “This ongoing process is very chal- literal interpretation of the language, and Highway 1. he believes, arguing that legisla- lenging,” he says. “It requires input “It’s a wonderful solution — a and buy-in from many stakeholders tive action is required “if you want to natural, native-plant-based habitat with diverse opinions on how best to change the meaning of the law.” solution that reduces erosion and wave plan for rising sea levels.” But in the era of sound climate impacts, even as the sea rises,” says science, it’s clear that many coastal Loomans, who owns a home on the It’s undeniable that those rising projects should arguably never have sandy spit reaching northward from seas, once discussed as a figment of been built in the first place, and pro- the town center. “No one wants a con- a foggy future, are happening. Clyde, tecting them could mean sacrificing crete wall out here.” Natural solutions who is 78 and has closely watched the public beaches. At Linda Mar Beach in are also being discussed at Lawson’s waterline since moving to his Mar- Pacifica, the waterfront shopping cen- Landing: encouraging beach grasses shall home in the late 1990s, says he ter was little more than a surf shop, a to anchor sand dunes and building has not seen any obvious change yet café, and a dirt lot 20 years ago. But native oyster reefs and eelgrass beds, in the highest of the high tides. “But,” in the past 15 years, it has seen major which would create wave breaks while he adds, “it seems that the lowest investments and upgrades, including encouraging the deposition, rather tides aren’t quite as low anymore.” a supermarket and craft beer taproom than the erosion, of sand. — all just a few feet above the current high-tide line. Whether such development deserves seawall protection lies at the heart of the local controversy and reflects the significance of the Coastal Act’s debatable language. Regardless of what is legally obligated, Schuchat thinks protecting Pacifica’s waterfront neighborhoods will be a lost cause. “Even if our resources were unlimited, we couldn’t protect Pacifica,” he says. “There just aren’t engineering solutions that can handle that.” At the southwest corner of San Francisco, officials are planning to use a touch of both managed retreat and concrete defense to deal with a confluence of challenges. Here, A rock berm guards waterfront homes from high tides and waves at Pacifica State Beach, better the beach is feeling the squeeze as known as Linda Mar. The small community, and the nearby shopping center, are a nexus point of the rising ocean pushes against the community politics and climate engineering as sea-level rises. Photos: Alastair Bland riprap that protects a southerly section of the coastal Great Highway. The For Clyde and others in the town of city’s plan is to reroute the highway Jennifer Savage of Surfrider lives eastward, giving room for the water Marshall, basic foundation improve- on the Samoa Peninsula, the sandy to move inland without washing out ments could lengthen the lifespans spit that shields Humboldt Bay from the beach. Simultaneously, a seawall of their homes. However, the Coastal the ocean. In January, she watched Commission’s regulations make such will be built around the city’s sewage as a storm pushed the water higher shorefront upgrades very difficult treatment plant, which would cost far than she can recall ever seeing in her too much to relocate. and costly. In effect, warns Clyde, the Coastal Commission’s policies will 18 years of living there. “The entire In Stinson Beach, projections show fast-track the eventual loss of shore- beach was underwater,” she says. “I’d that the sandy strand could be totally line homes. “This place will be inun- never seen that before. It was creepy.” underwater by 2100. But there is no dated eventually, but we could get a CONTACT firm plan yet to do anything — just a list few more decades of life out of them [email protected]; of ideas. These include protective mea- if they’ll let us,” Clyde says. “We’d like [email protected]; sures, like seawalls, and adaptive ones, to be able to protect and maintain our [email protected] like elevating threatened homes and homes, and enjoy our resilient com- roadways and relocating a fire station. 20 ESTUARY JUNE 2020

MARIN COUNTY precise boundaries have yet to be defined, but are likely to follow 2050 projections included in the 2019 Marin BayWAVE report, which outlines wa- Squeezed by Geography terfront vulnerability and sea-level- NATE SELTENRICH, REPORTER San Rafael is now in the midst of rise impacts across the county. updating its general plan to help it In most respects, Marin County is “What’s fortunate for San Rafael respond to rising seas more system- a privileged place. It ranks first in the is that there’s been a lot of attention atically over the next two decades Bay Area for income per capita, and in- [to] this topic here,” says Jensen. through a mix of zoning, building cludes many of the region’s priciest zip “The timing is right for us to do what codes, and other policies, says Paul codes. But its miles of Bay and ocean we can, and put what we can in our Jensen, community development shoreline and many low-lying towns, general plan.” positioned to afford easy coastal ac- director for the city. The plan is likely Marco Berger, community resil- cess and world-class scenery, rep- to recommend new city government ience coordinator for the Canal District resent a major liability in the era of requirements for considering future nonprofit Multicultural Center of Marin, sea-level rise. sea-level when reviewing capital projects; code amendments that says it’s also important for at-risk Marin is considered one of the establish minimum elevations for residents to have a say in how their Bay Area’s most vulnerable counties. building floors; and a formal frame- neighborhood responds to the crisis. That’s largely because the vast major- work for evaluating physical adapta- To that end, he leads the Canal Com- ity of its critical infrastructure, includ- tion projects, from upgraded pump munity Resilience Committee, a group ing roadways and utilities, exists within stations and restored wetlands to of about 40 local residents that began a slim strip of land along the Bay shore brand-new levees. meeting in November 2019 to discuss at low elevation. Much of the county’s issues including sea-level rise. He also The updated general plan will also housing stock and commercial and coordinates community outreach for suggest a sea-level-rise overlay, a industrial activity is also concentrated a broader climate change response zoning tool that imposes additional along the country’s eastern edge, from program called Drawdown Marin. the Golden Gate Bridge to Highway 37. requirements and restrictions on properties located within a defined “The idea is to bring in people who “Marin is the canary in the coal waterfront strip, Jensen says. Its usually would not have contact with mine in some ways, because almost everything is in that narrow strip

Corte Madera Options along the Bay,” says Roger Leventhal, C o a senior engineer with Marin County r t e Public Works. M a Smack in the middle of this span de ra C Use local is San Rafael, population 59,000. The re e sediment county’s economic and transportation k to enhance hub — and home to many of its lowest- Shorebird existing income, most vulnerable residents Marsh marsh — faces the greatest risk of all. Its Hwy 101 downtown and adjacent Canal District San — a waterfront neighborhood where Quentin immigrant Latino and Vietnamese residents live in aging, high-density apartments — were considered among Larkspur the region’s most threatened sites Place coarse beaches in front of eroding Build wide, during the 2018 Resilient by Design marsh edges (RBD) challenge. gently sloped ecotone levees The canal, also known as San Ra- behind marsh fael Creek, is about 1.5 miles long and drains a significant portion of the city. Corte Projections indicate that much of the Madera area along its south bank could see major flooding with just ten inches of 1 mile N Create beds of sea-level rise. submerged aquatic Mariner Cove vegetation (eelgrass) Solutions developed during the 1 km and/or oyster reefs RBD process range from the relatively straightforward — like restoring 20- In 2019, SFEI, Point Blue, and Marin County planners used Corte Madera as a case study to draw acre Tiscornia Marsh at the creek’s up hypothetical adaptation options over time, with an emphasis on nature-based solutions. This mouth, which is already in progress, forward-thinking planning process is based on prior work identifying “operational landscape or raising a nearby levee — to the life- units” around the Bay, natural habitats and open spaces that, if taken into consideration while changing and intractable, like retreat- planning for infrastructure and urban adaptation, would add up to better multi-jurisdiction, multi- ing from parts of the shoreline that benefit solutions all around. Corte Madera is currently moving these ideas forward, incorporating cannot be saved. community input, and also considering adaptation to wildfire, and other climate hazards. 21 or access to resources or may not normally be at the table, to create real FIREWATCH fire seasons combined with abundant equity, where those people are getting natural vegetation, the need for coor- heard and having opinions and sharing dinated fire prevention is crucial.” input that officials might hear and take Backdoor Threat The Central Marin Fire Department, back into their plans,” Berger says. San Rafael rises toward heavily which serves Corte Madera and neigh- A few miles south along the shore is forested China Camp State Park, while boring Larkspur, is on heightened Corte Madera, home to 10,000 people. Corte Madera reaches into the coun- alert after recent fire seasons, says As in San Rafael, development is ty’s mountainous interior: wildfire ter- fire marshal Ruben Martin. This year it concentrated in low-lying areas along ritory. Leaders in both towns recognize has worked “aggressively” to improve the waterfront, including on Bay fill. that climate change will come roaring evacuation routes and remove hazard- Roughly a quarter of its properties fall at their back door just as surely as it ous vegetation along roadways. “Due within the FEMA floodplain, according will lap at their front steps. to climate change, we have been expe- to director of public works and town riencing longer fire seasons,” Martin engineer R.J. Suokko. “A big chunk of Voters countywide seem aware of the risk, too. In February, they ap- says. “Historically, Marin’s fire season our community is at risk for sea-level began in May and ended in October. rise,” he says. proved Measure C, a new parcel tax to fund efforts to protect residents We are now experiencing vegetation More urgently, one crucial roadway from wildfire through early warning fires as late as December.” already floods and another may not systems, defensible space inspec- Sarah Minnick, a vegetation and be far behind. Sections of Lucky Drive, tions, shaded fuel breaks, and cleared fire ecologist with Marin County which crosses Corte Madera Creek evacuation routes. Parks, says a landscape and vegeta- just west of Highway 101, and Paradise Vast swaths of undeveloped and tion mapping effort now underway will Drive, which hugs the Bayshore, have help the county prepare for and fight both been targeted for raising within forested lands fill central Marin, from future wildfires. “This can provide us the next five years. Mount Tamalpais to lesser known ridgelines and peaks in the north. insight into some opportunities to ad- “[Lucky Drive] is one of three key These county, state, national, and wa- dress tree mortality or fuel buildup,” arteries into Central Marin,” Suokko ter district properties are bordered by, she says. The new maps can also be says. “It already floods annually, and in and in some cases interspersed with, compared against older, less-detailed December it was a couple feet [under remote residences and small commu- “landform” maps to see how veg- water], to where I wouldn’t advise nities. As weather patterns shift and etation types have shifted over time sedans passing.” The city has not the next drought looms, the wildfire — from grassland to shrubland, for secured funding for either project, but instance. “This is impacted by climate is currently looking for grant opportu- threat to interior Marin appears to be growing by the year. change and has implications for fire nities, he says. and how it moves on the landscape,” One potential source is a county- The Measure C ballot language Minnick says. NS doesn’t explicitly refer to climate wide half-cent sales tax benefiting CONTACT transportation projects and roads, change, but the official argument in favor led with a clear message: “So [email protected]; approved by voters in 2018 for 30 [email protected] years, with 1% of revenues earmarked far, Marin has escaped a major fire. specifically for addressing sea-level- However with longer, hotter, drier rise impacts. This may be the only dedicated source of new local funding for transportation adaptation in the Also in 2019, Point Blue and the efforts in every corner of the county, Bay Area to date. San Francisco Estuary Institute, in from Tomales Bay to Richardson Bay to partnership with the county, developed diked Baylands in Novato. In 2019 total revenues were $27 a separate framework designed to Leventhal, who’s helping lead a million, providing about $270,000 to the help planners Bay Area-wide include sea-level-rise program, none of which number of these projects, says natural nature-based strategies alongside has yet been spent, says Derek Mc- shorelines can buy planners a couple or in place of hard infrastructure Gill, planning manager for the county decades by providing wind and wave transportation authority. “It’s not a sub- like seawalls and bulkheads as they protection and reducing erosion, but stantial sum in terms of infrastructure prepare their shorelines for rising ultimately won’t be enough. redevelopment budgets, but we hope tides. Using four Marin cities located at creek mouths as case studies, the “If sea-level is really going up on it can at least be a seed that attracts the order of feet, [these projects won’t] report evaluates the landscapes and federal and state funding.” necessarily stop that,” he said. “The shorelines for nature-based adapta- scale of the problem is so big that I Another coordinated, countywide tion opportunities and constraints, don’t know of anything [currently] being effort revolves around the 2019 publica- and includes colorful maps detailing implemented that’s going to make a tion of a land-use planning guide that outcomes (see diagram). recommends baseline policies and an significant difference.” approach to adaptation planning for Beaches, tidal marshes, oyster CONTACT sea-level rise. County leaders are using reefs, ecotone levees, and other sorts [email protected]; it to build consensus among plan- of living shorelines that provide wildlife [email protected]; ning directors in nine shoreline cities, habitat as well as flood protection al- [email protected]; including San Rafael and Corte Madera. ready figure prominently in adaptation [email protected] 22 ESTUARY JUNE 2020 SONOMA COUNTY New Eyes on Floods and Fire JACOBA CHARLES, REPORTER “In the big picture, I tend to think As the Kincade fire prompted the of climate hazards as the horsemen evacuations of nearly 200,000 Sonoma of the apocalypse: there is fire, flood, County residents last fall, many — drought, heat wave, and sea-level including this writer — found them- rise,” says Cornwall. “We had all selves glued to their computer screens, of these before, really on a regular watching grainy images from a network basis — just not at this frequency or of strategically placed cameras. severity.” “During the fire they were the hot- County Overview test things on the internet,” says Dale Sonoma County has long been Roberts, an engineer with the Sonoma known for its scenic nature and its County Water Agency (Sonoma Water), agriculture, and both of those char- Aftermath of the Tubbs Fire, Santa Rosa, which installed the first of the cameras acteristics remain. Historic exports October 2017. Photo: Jacoba Charles in Sonoma County. These fire cameras included hops, prunes, and apples, as are one of the myriad strategies being well as redwood lumber and tanoak the San Francisco Bay, behind Napa adopted by agencies, research institu- bark for tanning hides; today, it is the county. It also has comparatively tions, nonprofits, and other stakehold- largest wine producer of the North little development along its southern ers to combat the impacts of climate Bay’s famous Wine Country region. The border adjacent to the San Pablo Bay; change that threaten upheaval in virtu- majority of the county is undeveloped this offers the county some protec- ally all areas of our lives. privately owned pasture or forestland. tion from the impacts of sea-level rise, apart from the threat to Highway Flames have become the unofficial Large numbers of tourists bring- 37 (see p.25). The wetland complex face of climate change for Sonoma ing vital revenue — as well as climate along the Petaluma River is the larg- County, in the wake of the catastrophic impacts in the form of car and air- est intact historical wetland in the Tubbs and Kincade fires that tore plane emissions — are drawn to the Bay Area, and perhaps in California, through the northern parts of the vineyards and the scenic beauty that according to Kendall Webster of the county in 2017 and 2019. Together the ranges from the broad valley and roll- Sonoma Land Trust. two fires burned more than 114,000 ing hills of the southern and eastern acres, roughly a tenth of the county. county to the steep bluffs and ridges As with the rest of the Bay Area, They claimed 22 lives, destroyed al- of the Coast Range. The meandering Sonoma County’s politics skew to the most 5,000 homes, and caused nearly Russian River has attracted summer- left — a fact that has likely given it a leg 300,000 evacuations, including many time bathers and boaters in droves up in its approach to climate change. In who had to evacuate twice. since the 1800s. addition to a progressive local government, it is home to numerous agen- However, increased frequency and Despite this, Sonoma County has cies, organizations, and stakeholders severity of wildfire is only one of the the second-lowest population den- that are tackling the problem, including many ways that climate change is sity of the nine counties surrounding the world-renowned conservation sci- poised to affect life in Sonoma County. ence organization Point Blue. “The fires got us all out of our silos,” says Lisa Micheli, president of the Pep- Spotlight on Sonoma Water perwood Foundation and Dwight Center Among the many groups that are for Conservation Science. “The inex- working to tackle climate change tricable linkages between the natural in the county, Sonoma Water has world and our built environment mean been notably undertaking a variety of that we all need to talk to one another.” forward-thinking projects. Beginning Drought and warmer temperatures in 2015, the agency achieved its goal promise to disrupt agriculture and the of producing “zero-carbon water,” natural environment, such as the fog- by storing, treating, and supplying dependent coast redwoods. Drought water to its 600,000 customers using also threatens water supplies and electricity generated from non-fossil- increases the chances of catastrophic fuel sources. wildfire, while intense and frequent “We’d rather have a stable climate, winter storms mean increased prob- but it varies, so we’d be hypocritical ability of flooding. The Russian River if we were contributing to the cause already has the highest repetitive flood of that variation,” Roberts says. While loss damages of any location west of the agency contracts to obtain 80% the Rockies, according to Caitlin Corn- of the needed power, the remaining wall, project manager with the Sonoma Fire cameras northeast of Santa Rosa. 20% is generated locally, from solar, Ecology Center. Photo courtesy Pepperwood Preserve geothermal and hydropower. “I wish 23 this approach was more prevalent help mitigate or adapt to Probability of Burning Two or More Times in the water industry, but it’s a fairly climate change, including conservative industry in general,” launching the Fire Smart Roberts says. Lake Sonoma program; But that is only the beginning of the collaborating with first re- adaptations the agency has made. It sponders, private landown- had already begun exploring the idea ers and stakeholders to of the fire cameras when the Tubbs fire reduce wildfire fuel loads sparked more interest in 2017, accord- to protect critical drinking ing to Roberts. “We funded eight fire water supplies; elevating cameras in the area and got them up electrical equipment above and running in a year or so,” Roberts the 500-year flood level; says. “That sort of nudged PG&E into increasing “situational putting in almost 20 more.” awareness” of mudslide risk by making data from The cameras use “pan-tilt-zoom” stream and rain gauges technology, and are part of a larger above and below burned network of cameras throughout watersheds public; and 1970- 2070- western states called ALERTWildfire, continuing collaboration 2000 2100 which is managed jointly by the Uni- with research institu- versity of Nevada Reno, University of tions to apply modeling to Source: North Bay Climate Ready Natural Resource Managers California San Diego, and the Univer- their water management. sity of Oregon. Sonoma Water is set to awarded a $1.2 million NASA grant to work with the University of Maryland Another climate change impact complete its Climate Adaptation Plan on a prototype remote sensing project facing Sonoma Water is increased later this year. to inventory the county’s forest carbon extreme-weather events such as An Active County stocks, monitor sea-level rise, and flood and drought. The water agency map groundwater. Meanwhile the So- has to balance both, working to Sonoma Water is only one ex- noma Resource Conservation District, ensure that reservoirs don’t overfill ample of the proactive approach the independent of county government, during storms while also retaining county has taken to address climate offers a LandSmart planning program enough water to carry customers change. In 2014, Sonoma County was to assist landowners in implement- through the dry season. one of 16 communities recognized as “climate action champions” by ing practices such as soil and water A new tool they are using to achieve the Obama Administration. Sonoma conservation, habitat enhancement, these often conflicting goals is Forecast was the first in the nation to create and carbon sequestration to manage Informed Reservoir Operation, which a local government agency specifi- their lands for climate change adap- uses regionally specific modeling for cally to address climate change. The tation. Carbon-farm plans and forest the Russian River Watershed to antici- Regional Climate Protection Author- management plans and practices are pate when and exactly where a rain- ity, formed in 2009, has committed being implemented to achieve both laden atmospheric river will arrive, and to pursue a 25% reduction in green- local and watershed-based objectives. just how much rain it is anticipated to house gas emissions from 1990 However, following the 2016 drop (see also Santa Clara p.13). levels through formal partnerships presidential election federal funding This year, despite the third-lowest and pooled resources (financial and for climate change-related projects rainfall in 127 years, the new system human), and by working across silos. and research slowed to a trickle. allowed the agency to save an extra (In 2020, San Mateo County also Now, in the midst of the coronavirus 18% of water in storage, according to formed a new agency to cross silos, outbreak and economic downturn, Roberts. “We had a really wet No- this one aimed at flood resilience.) the flow of funding has slowed even vember and December, but even so In the last decade, the county has more. “Our county is working so we kept the water level in our reser- taken many other steps to address hard — every agency has climate as voirs higher than we normally would climate change. Last fall, the Board a priority on their agenda but they because we could see that there were of Supervisors approved a declara- are really maxed out, they could no more atmospheric rivers predict- tion of a climate emergency, which use more resources,” said Micheli. ed,” he says. “Now we have a lot more will enable it to prioritize projects “We’re at the point where the limit is water stored this year than we ever that reduce greenhouse gas emis- not scientific knowledge, or knowing would have historically. If you don’t try sions, mitigate climate change what we need to do — we now need anything new nothing bad will happen impacts, and promote climate resil- to make the social progress required but nothing awesome will happen ei- iency. Sonoma Clean Power, a com- to act on our knowledge and shift the ther.” He added that the final decision munity choice aggregation program status quo.” about when and how much to release launched in 2014, brings renewable CONTACT during winter rests with the Army electricity to a majority of county [email protected]; Corps of Engineers, describing their residents. [email protected]; willingness to try the new approach [email protected] as “a pretty bold move on their part.” In 2013, the Sonoma County Agri- cultural Preservation and Open Space The agency has engaged with District and Sonoma Water were numerous other projects that will 24 ESTUARY JUNE 2020 NAPA COUNTY trees are experiencing climate change, and they are also our friends as we humans think about how we are going to [adapt],” says the RCD’s Frances Planting for Resilience Knapczyk. Oaks sequester a tremen- CARIAD HAYES THRONSON, REPORTER nerability assessment that identifies dous amount of carbon, improving the increasing temperatures and reduced soil’s ability to hold moisture, aiding Travel brochures for Napa County groundwater recharge, while their almost universally feature the same rainfall as the biggest threats to the county, threatening agriculture and huge canopies provide shade, “which images: a valley floor carpeted with is going to be super important as the vineyards, nestled between hillsides drinking water supplies, and fueling wildfires. temperature goes up. Our streams are dotted with spreading valley oaks. As going to need more shade, and so are climate change brings hotter days — Even in the absence of an official our buildings,” says Knapczyk. and more of them — to the county, plan, the county is pursuing sev- these twin pillars of the landscape, eral climate projects, according to In 2019, the RCD partnered with grapevines and oak trees, are both county planner Jason Hade. These are North Bay Watershed Association and challenged by it and central to local primarily focused on reducing green- SFEI to develop a regional re-oaking resilience strategies. house gas emissions and expanding strategy that identifies the best places water recycling. to plant the trees and works with Napa County shares many of the landowners to integrate them onto characteristics of Sonoma, its neigh- Meanwhile, other entities, including their property. “We started with Napa bor to the west, including an economy agencies and individual businesses, and Sonoma counties but the same largely dependent on agriculture and are spearheading efforts to adapt to methodology can be applied to Marin the tourism fueled by its wine in- the new climate reality, centering on and Solano,” says Patzek. The RCD is dustry and bucolic landscape. Ironi- the county’s iconic flora. also working with the cities of Napa cally, many of the measures that are “Napa is historically one of the bet- and American Canyon to develop a now cushioning some of the effects ter environments for the valley oak, the cohesive urban forestry plan in part to of climate change were enacted to massive trees you see on postcards,” reduce heat island effects. Beyond the protect that landscape long before says Napa Resource Conservation Dis- RCD’s efforts, the county has budgeted the climate became a worry. Various trict’s (RCD) Lucas Patzek. Historically funds to help replant oak woodlands statutes enacted since the 1960s have Napa’s alluvial plains were covered and promote oak education throughout limited development on Napa Valley’s with oak forests, mostly composed of the county. floor and hillsides, while several flood valley oaks. Roughly 90% of them have control and aquatic habitat restoration Of course, oak trees can only do been lost to development, according projects along the Napa River buffer so much to mitigate the local effects to a 2012 report by the San Francisco flooding from sea-level rise. of climate change, and those effects Estuary Institute that inspired the — drought, heat, and wildfire — are But in recent years, the county has RCD to establish a community-based creating an unnerving threat to the been slow to respond to the crisis. A re-oaking program. A county ballot wine industry, which dominates the climate action plan has been in the measure that would have tightened local economy. “Right now Napa is in a works since 2011, but has yet to be restrictions on oak removal failed by a sweet spot for growing premium wine adopted — a delay some local activists thin margin in 2018. grapes,” says local climate activist Jim attribute to pushback from the power- Hotter, drier weather will likely Wilson. “But it’s well known that in a ful agriculture industry (though several make Napa’s environment less hospi- couple of generations it won’t be.” cities, including Napa and American table to oaks, particularly valley oaks, Canyon, have their own plans). The That vision of the future is leading which require a lot of water and prefer current draft of the plan, which was some Napa winters to experiment with cooler temperatures. “Native oak completed in 2019, includes a vul- varietals and viticultural techniques — and even new growing regions. Beck- stoffer Vineyards is conducting a trial north of Napa in Lake County, where seasonal variation is greater, “to forecast the impacts of climate extremes and how they relate to Cabernet pro- duction,” says director of operations Cliff Nelson. “We hope to stay ahead of the impacts of climate on Cabernet in traditional growing areas.” Nelson points out that the climate has already changed significantly, and that growers have adapted. He says he has no plans to shift operations to another locale. “Napa is a very special area and I do not think it will ever be replicated or reproduced.” CONTACT: [email protected] Iconic Napa Valley flora. Photo: Ariel Okamoto 25 Highway 37: The Road to Restoration JOHN HART, REPORTER Throw into this hydrophilic situa- As the Davis team wrapped up its San Francisco Bay has seven tion the factor of sea-level rise: over SR 37 Integrated Traffic, Infrastructure highway bridges with tolls, eight if you a foot by 2050 and three feet by 2100, and Sea-level Rise Analysis, the initia- ZOOM: count the span linking Antioch to the to pluck mid-range numbers from tive passed to the local level. In 2015, Delta. In the future it just might have the State’s latest complex table of the counties along or near the route nine. The latest candidate is not the probabilities. With each revision, the — Solano, Napa, Sonoma, and Marin — long-debated Southern Crossing, but estimates nudge upwards. Ten feet of joined the Metropolitan Transportation rather a series of causeways carrying rise by century’s end is quite pos- Commission and Caltrans in a Highway California’s single most vulnerable sible. Storm surges and peak runoff 37 Policy Committee. Fearing that INFRASTRUCTURE road in the era of sea-level rise: State will add to the pressure at times. And engineers might not take full account of Route 37 between Vallejo and Novato. the encroachment won’t stop at a the vast marsh restorations underway convenient cut-off date. Based on the in the area, the Sonoma Land Trust, the A bridge on dry land? But the record of past warm periods, a 2015 Coastal Conservancy, and others joined dryness of this region is a fading paper in Science suggested, the total in a State Route 37-Baylands Group. illusion. Over a century ago, dikes, accumulated rise could be twenty In 2017, the group laid down markers: pumps, and fill transformed a feet or more. Whatever is done with the east-west 50,000-acre wetland wilderness into highway must also improve the passage From head-on collisions in the a fabric of fields and managed ponds of tides and stormwaters north and 1980s to crippling congestion now, — for a geological blink of an eye. south, not further impede those flows. Now the tides are returning, in a pro- Highway 37 is a familiar headache cess partly planned and partly inevi- for highway engineers. The focus on This statement was more than just table. In the name of habitat, some- its very survival dates back to 2010. advice. The Baylands Group spoke thing like half of the old wetlands In that year the Federal Highway for powerful landowners along the along this arc have been reopened to Administration and the California route, notably the state and federal the Bay, with much more to come. Department of Transportation chose wildlife agencies. It had the backing of this road for one of the first stud- the Environmental Protection Agency Elsewhere, pumps labor to keep the ies ever on roads and sea-level rise. and the regional water board. And it water out of fields that have sunk as Study lead Fraser Shilling of the had arithmetic on its side. It was only much as seven feet below sea-level. Road Ecology Center at UC Da- by factoring in a lot of environmental At some points the asphalt of Highway vis credits two Caltrans workers, improvement that any major retrofit 37 lies no more than two feet above Katie Benouar and Kome Ajise, for could pencil out economically; without typical daily tide levels. In the wet win- wrangling this unusual support of the “green” factor, its cost-benefit ratio ters of 2017 and 2019, the low points long-distance planning by agencies would fall below one, a Caltrans make- flooded for weeks at a time. While the sometimes accused of limited vision. or-break metric. nine miles from Vallejo to Sears Point “This whole field has moved forward feel most exposed, the western reach In fact the highway planners read- in leaps because of champions [like ily accepted that they must do two in Marin has proved especially inunda- these],” says Shilling. tion-prone. things at once: preserve and improve an overburdened transportation link, and support the great North Bay wetlands project. While they were at it, they also undertook to find a place for the Bay Trail and to make life easier for the many workers who commute from Vallejo to Marin. “It’s much more joined-up thinking than we’ve had in the past,” says Jeremy Lowe of the San Francisco Estuary Institute. What is now called the Resilient 37 program has weighed the options for the short term, and the long. The uncontroversial early steps are aimed at relieving congestion. The two-lane stretch between Vallejo and Sears Point will likely be reconfigured to offer one or two additional lanes; a traffic circle will smooth the difficult intersection of 37 and northbound Highway 121 near the Infineon Raceway. But all such works are for a generation only. continued on next page Levee repair after recent flooding on Highway 37. Photo: Caltrans/John Huseby 26 ESTUARY JUNE 2020

The long-term options are much The work could be “self-mitigating.” an honest appraisal of environmental more varied, debatable, and costly. “The wetlands could do what they impacts would bring [the northern Three bights of the Baylands must be need to do,” says Jessica Davenport route] to the front. The marshes will traversed or circumvented: a small of the Coastal Conservancy, “and the suffer under the causeway option.” one around Novato Creek, a larger road would be out of harm’s way.” As for cost, Shilling finds incred- one east of the Petaluma River, and a The apparent drift toward the ible the conclusion that skirting the vast one between Sears Point and the maximal causeway option arouses one marsh would be pricier than cross- Napa River. dissent worth noting: from Fraser Shil- ing it. Among other things, he points The cheapest fix in each case would ling, lead author of the UC Davis study out, these estimates assume that the be to raise the road on much wider em- that started this ball rolling. In 2017, “new” 37 must start and end exactly bankments, putting maximum barriers he and Steven Moore, then a member where the “old” one does. in the way of natural flows. The most of the State Water Resources Control The arguments on costs and im- dramatic would be to build a straight- Board, wrote an op-ed suggesting pacts will continue for a while. “There line over-water bridge between Novato more attention to the northern route. really is no perfect solution,” says and Vallejo. The most circuitous would “Acknowledging that today we would SFEI’s Lowe. be to shift the highway northward, at never build a costly highway through The immediate next step is to firm least in the eastern reach, skirting the sensitive tidal marshes, [we could] up plans for the western reach of the largest lobe of the marshy realm. move the transportation function in- road, from US 101 to State Route 121, But the option that has floated to land and off the marshes altogether.” called Segment A. The Metropoli- the top in analysis and stakeholder Shilling feels the same today. He tan Transportation begins a “design conversations is to leave the road questions Resilient 37’s initial conclu- alternative assessment” this month; roughly where it is but elevate it on pil- sion that the northern path would do Caltrans will gear up its CEQA process ings for many long stretches, making it more harm than the southern. “I think soon after. Attention will then turn to

North Bay Ecological and Transportation Connections

something like the Yolo Causeway that Water and traffic follow different carries Interstate 80 into Sacramento. routes around Highway 37. Top (SFEI): important ecological Because causeways would dam- connections via creeks; bottom age the marshes less than the pres- (Aecom): 3 alternative routes for ent road, it is suggested, the projects the future state highway. might not have to spin off funds for compensating habitat improvements. 27 the near-term improvements for Seg- cost about $3.5 billion. Vital though it RESTORATION ment B, from 121 to Mare Island. The is, Highway 37 seems to be no one’s ultimate vision for this problematic burning priority. And there are so many stretch will take longer to confirm. other claims. The MTC noted in Janu- Separating Two “Timing will be dependent on funding,” ary: “For this east-west connection, says Stefanie Hom of the Metropolitan the proposed resilience project [has] Creeks to Reduce Transportation Commission (MTC). higher costs and lower benefits than Flood Peaks ZOOM: Besides the highway, two other other transportation facilities requiring The diking and draining of the San transportation lines have claims on protection from rising sea-levels.” Pablo Baylands began 150 years ago planners’ attention in the San Pablo To stand a chance in the race for and peaked in the 1980s. The long Baylands: the Bay Trail and the rail- funds, the highway must pay part of its journey back began in 1994, with a tiny road. Along these northern shores own way. This spring, before the coro-

restoration on the Petaluma River, INFRASTRUCTURE the Bay Trail is largely an aspirational navirus scrambled priorities, Senator called “Carl’s Marsh” for its champion, dotted line, but Sonoma County has Bill Dodd of Napa introduced legislation Carl Wilcox of the California Depart- a genuine hiking and cycling path to make it a toll road. (This would turn ment of Fish and Wildlife. The success almost from border to border. One back the clock: the route first opened, of that small project led to big and segment makes a loop around Tubbs in 1928, as a private turnpike.) A $5 then bigger ones — and to a vision for Island; the second follows a new levee or $6 toll, Dodd estimates, could yield a vast new wetland system. in the Sears Point Wetlands Restora- $650 million over twenty years. That is tion Project. A gap of less than a mile a far cry from $3.5 billion, but it would The latest piece of that vision is the separates the two. In the near term, certainly cover interim work and serve Sonoma Creek Baylands Strategy, advocates want to forge this missing as a lever to pry loose larger blocks of due for release in June. Developed by link. The voids in Solano County and funding from the state and, above all, the Sonoma Land Trust, it is funded Marin County will be more challenging the feds. “If people really want to do in large part by the San Francisco Bay to fill. In the long-term, the trail might this,” says the Coastal Conservancy’s Restoration Authority through 2016’s evade rising waters to the north, or Davenport, “there’s always a way.” Measure AA. The U.S. Fish and Wild- life Service, the Resources Legacy wind up bundled in alongside cause- In the current health and financial ways. If offset from or sunk lower than Fund, and the Dolby Family Fund have crisis, it has to be said, the way seems pitched in as well. the traffic lanes, the path could still be longer than ever before. It is a special a pleasant walk or ride. case of a general problem. As the Bay The strategy addresses lands along A rail line, now used only for freight, Area girds for sea-level rise, the initial the lower course of Sonoma Creek that runs from Novato to Suisun City, where question is: What would it take to save are still behind dikes and largely in private it joins the Capitol Corridor Amtrak everything? What can we do, we ask, ownership. This terrain is the next frontier route. The tracks parallel Highway 37 to protect this neighborhood, this for restoration, as funds become avail- in Segment A from Novato to Sears road, that bridge, this stadium, this able and property owners find themselves Point and then swing north near the waterfront? The Resilient by Design ready to sell. “Willing landowners, the SR marsh edge, passing south of Sonoma competition brought out many attrac- 37 redesign, and the pressure of climate and Napa on their way east. The Cali- tive partial solutions, including the change set the stage for this study,” says fornia State Rail Plan of 2018 foresees bold “Grand Bayway” vision for the San Kendall Webster of the Trust. passenger service on this route, and Pablo Baylands. The prevailing mood The emerging preferred alternative calls Sonoma-Marin Rapid Transit, which is: yes, we can do it, if we are smart, for restoring some 5,000 additional acres owns much of the line, is interested in if we are quick, and if we can raise of marsh and rerouting Tolay Creek so that providing it someday. colossal sums. It is surely good, as a it flows directly into the Bay instead of join- Though not so vulnerable as the thought experiment, to test out a policy ing Sonoma Creek. By separating the two road, the tracks, too, will eventually of minimal retreat. creeks, the plan will reduce the flood peaks have to be elevated or shifted in the But — especially if the more pes- on Sonoma Creek and postpone the day face of sea-level rise. In their present simistic estimates of sea-level rise when a key bridge on Highway 37 has to be location, they also complicate restora- prove correct — brutal facts are going lengthened and raised. tion projects; the need to protect them to force a triage. Is letting go of an as- That highway — together with the limited marsh expansion at Sears set like Route 37 out of the question? Bay Trail and a railroad line owned by Point. Again, the long-term solution is “We cannot abandon it,” says Sonoma Sonoma-Marin Rail Transit — looms to combine the highway and the rail- Supervisor Susan Gorin firmly. Con- large in the thinking of restoration plan- road in one corridor. (And what about sultant Doug Wallace, formerly of ners. Agnostic about the details of rout- the far-out possibility of retaining the EBMUD, offers another view. “When ing, the Sonoma Creek Baylands Strategy railroad only?) These fundamental circumstances force our hand,” he underlines the need to get infrastructure issues seem to be beyond the scope of says, “we will think previously unthink- out of the way of water movement, and the current planning. able thoughts.” favors “co-location” of the three trans- Which brings us to the massive CONTACT portation lines. question all acknowledge and no one [email protected]; Could transportation budgets ul- yet can answer: where does the money [email protected]; timately help fund the restorations? come from? The maximum causeway [email protected]; “That’s the unicorn we’re pursuing,” option, by the latest estimate, would [email protected] Webster says. JH 28 ESTUARY JUNE 2020

SOLANO COUNTY Small Town and Big Marsh Brace for Spreading Bay

ROBIN MEADOWS, REPORTER When heavy rains coincided with an extreme high tide in 2005, water from the Carquinez Strait overtopped flood protections in the City of Benicia. Mak- ing matters worse, the high seas also submerged stormwater outfalls. Water backed up stormdrains, inundating historic homes and small businesses. As tides keep rising, scenarios like this will play out more often―and with greater severity―along the Solano County shoreline, which extends 40 miles as the crow flies from San Pablo Bay Trail on the Benicia waterfont. This popular near-shore trail, which circles much of the Bay, is Bay to the Delta. The county, which vulnerable to sea-level rise but also represents a critical buffer zone. Photo: Paul Okamoto. covers 900 square miles and is home to a review of the protection plan. “There pocket for ― and deciding whether half a million people, assessed climate were environmental concerns ― like to implement ― any such measures vulnerabilities in its 2011 Sea-level climate change ― they may not have themselves. Rise Strategic Program, noting that been thinking about in the ‘70s,” says the document is “a first step and call to That said, duck club owners must agency coastal scientist Rachel Wig- still deal with California’s increasingly action to identify opportunities inher- ginton, who leads the review. ent in the challenge.” High risk areas variable environment. “Flooding from in addition to Benicia include Highway At the protection plan review’s bigger rainstorms and severe droughts 37, which runs along the San Pablo Bay kickoff meeting in February, stake- are more immediate threats,” explains (see p. 25), and the Suisun Marsh, the holders identified likely areas of Chappell, who advises the marsh’s Bay Area’s largest remaining wetland. concern. “Climate was one of the big private landowners on stewardship. topics,” Wigginton says. The next step “They need to be prepared.” Drought In 2016, the City of Benicia — popu- is for the stakeholders to set priorities. can worsen saltwater intrusion in these lation about 28,000 — developed a Possibilities for sea-level rise adapta- managed wetlands, requiring increased climate adaptation plan. “This was the tion include giving tidal marsh room freshwater infusions to flush out the first stand-alone climate adaptation to migrate upland, bolstering levees salinity. plan for a city of its size,” says climate to withstand increased pressure from Caring for his piece of the marsh is a expert Alex Porteshawver, who worked rising waters, and using salinity con- on the project with a team of consul- labor of love for Kent Hansen, co-owner trol gates to keep salty ocean water of the Goodyear duck club, 400 acres tants. “In general, smaller jurisdic- from penetrating further inland. tions don’t have stand-alone plans.” on Morrow Island near the Benicia- Nearly half of the Suisun Marsh is Martinez Bridge. “We spend a lot of Strategies for protecting Beni- diked. “Bigger rains and flood events time maintaining levees and control- cia from floods include retrofitting will overwhelm the levee system,” ling invasive plants,” says Hansen, who downtown streets with rain gardens says Steve Chappell, who directs grew up in a farming community and to absorb stormwater, equipping the Suisun Resource Conservation has worked his land in the marsh for stormwater outfalls with tide gates to District. “We need to keep pace with two decades. “Sea-level rise is a worry reduce water backup, and expanding sea-level rise.” This will entail raising to us but we can only address it year by the remaining salt marsh to form a levees and pumping water out more year.” The 10 members of his club will natural barrier to sea-level rise along often. foot the bill for about $25,000 in routine the shore. Most of the marsh is public land, maintenance this year, which does not Most of Solano County’s shoreline but it also has about 140 privately include major levee work. is along the Suisun Marsh, which en- owned duck clubs that maintain To Hansen, it’s all worth it. “We look compasses one-fifth of the jurisdiction habitat for waterfowl. The marsh is a at ourselves as conservationists―the and is by far the most extensive area major stop along the Pacific Flyway, marsh is full of really cool wildlife,” he vulnerable to climate-driven flooding. attracting more than one-quarter of says. “It’s an amazing place.” A mix of diked and tidal wetlands, it the state’s wintering waterbirds. While CONTACT [email protected]; falls under the Suisun Marsh Protec- most climate adaptation is publicly [email protected]; tion Plan, which dates to 1977. The SF funded, duck club owners are in the [email protected] Bay Conservation and Development unusual position of paying out of Commission (BCDC) recently launched 29

ALAMEDA COUNTY Parks and Cities Seek Shore Resilience JOE EATON, REPORTER disadvantaged communities than the His team has used a number- For Alameda County, climate vul- East Bay Hills,” observes government crunching approach to help EBRPD nerability is no abstraction. King tides affairs manager Erich Pfuehler. He choose which trail segments to tackle push the waters of San Leandro Bay adds that EBRPD has encouraged the first, weighting each section on hazard, into parking lots at Martin Luther King San Francisco Bay Restoration Author- vulnerability, and consequences. EB- Regional Shoreline. When Diablo winds ity to focus on equity issues in the East PRD has yet to decide on priorities, but rattle the eucalyptus, Berkeley and Bay in allocating funds from 2016’s from what chief of planning Brian Holt Oakland hill-dwellers recall the con- Measure AA regional parcel tax. says, segments along the Oakland Es- flagrations of 1923 and 1991 and dread The park district’s Alameda County tuary could well make the cut: “It’s an area of concern — endangered species the next one. The county feels the bite portfolio includes two Restoration Au- at Arrowhead Marsh, I-880, the port of both edges of the climate sword: fire thority funded projects: Encinal Dunes and airport, buildings that come right and flood. in the city of Alameda, and Coyote Hills up against the shoreline.” Alameda is a big (739 square miles), in the south county, where ambitious populous (an estimated 1.7 million), plans are afoot. “Coyote Hills will be Looking for Lines of Defense a climate-smart park,” says district diverse county: hills and flatlands, Worries about a rising Bay flood- deputy general manager Ana Alvarez. students and retirees, new money and ing the cluster of roads, utilities, and “It’s located in the city of Fremont, underground artists, banh mi, birria, endangered species habitats on a long but visitors come from other areas, boulani, barbeque. It encompasses the stretch of Hayward shoreline put the academic powerhouse of UC Berkeley, like Newark, with large economically area on planners’ radar more than a the South County tech scene, mush- disadvantaged populations.” In the decade ago. Since then it has served as rooming urban infill construction, gro- works are riparian forest restoration to a micro-regional planning pilot for how tesque real estate values, proliferating sequester carbon, expanded seasonal to assess risk and adapt. homeless encampments, brownfields, wetlands to increase floodwater stor- and former military bases in varying age capacity, and an interpretive pro- The Hayward Area Shoreline Plan- stages of cleanup. While some cities gram that speaks to climate change. ning Agency (HASPA), a new joint powers authority composed of local park are skewing whiter and richer, com- For its 47 miles of Bay Trail, EBRPD munities of color remain substan- districts and municipalities, is develop- has begun assessing risks and pri- ing a Shoreline Master Plan with SB 1 tial. There’s overlap with pockets of oritizing projects, with funding from socioeconomic disadvantage, many in funding. Regional park units include Caltrans through 2017’s transportation- low-lying bayside areas. the Hayward Regional Shoreline, with infrastructure-focused Senate Bill 1 its popular interpretive center, and With highways, BART, a major (see p.3). Engineer Jack Hogan of Arup, a preserve for the endangered salt airport and seaport, business parks, one of several consulting firms involved marsh harvest mouse. and sports complexes, Alameda is in the planning project, points out that dense with critical infrastructure. Yet there’s more to the trail than recre- Earlier this year a team of consul- it’s also rich in open space, much of ation: “It wasn’t designed to provide tants led by New York-based SCAPE it in a regional park system shared shoreline flood protection, but it is the presented three potential strategies for with bordering Contra Costa County, de facto protection in some areas.” continued on next page its coastal units stitched together by the San Francisco Bay Trail. Some coastal wetlands harbor endangered species. There’s a lot at risk here, and cities, the East Bay Regional Park District (EBRPD), and other entities are engaging with climate adaptation on multiple fronts. Explore living levee Parks at the Forefront along shoreline long term With 58,713 acres and 426 miles of trail in Alameda County alone, the 3 1 1 3 EBRPD is the largest landowner on Elevate Upgrade pump the shoreline and plays a large role seawall and stormdrain in adaptation planning. District policy capacity gives precedence to science-informed and nature-based climate solutions, Investigate planting submerged aquatic 2 and management is also attuned to vegetation as buffer social equity issues. “What is being protected by our levees, trails, and wet- Alameda’s resilience plan explores options for spots vulnerable to sea-level rise such as this lands is largely the flatlands, with more lagoon inlet on Bay Farm Island. 30 ESTUARY JUNE 2020

review by the project’s stakeholders. timeframe we’re looking at managed and stakeholders will be discussing Alternative options for placement of retreat isn’t likely — it’s too far out tradeoffs. “We’ll get together with our the “line of protection” against ris- there,” she says. “One of our goals is Ouija boards and crystal balls and ing tides were dubbed “Closer to the to build resilient communities. The figure it all out,” jokes city of Hayward Bay,” “Down the Middle,” and “Further plan, in the timeframe we’re exploring, planner Damon Golubics. Inland.” A preferred alternative, likely is to protect housing.” Sometimes a line of defense can incorporating elements from multiple All three proposals involve some be crafted with nature-based materi- plans, will be chosen later this year realignment of the Bay Trail, with two als. Near the HASPA project area, the after stakeholder feedback. moving it significantly farther inland. Coastal Conservancy is moving forward HASPA’s Taylor Richard says two When that was suggested by the with a gravel beach and berm at the options aren’t currently on the table Adapting to Rising Tides program of Eden Landing Ecological Reserve. in planning for a projected four-foot the SF Bay Conservation and Develop- The project, supported by a National sea-level rise: armoring the shore- ment Commission (BCDC), the idea Coastal Resilience Grant, was an ele- ment originally developed by SCAPE line and managed retreat. “At seven generated pushback as incompat- and others working to unlock Alameda feet or higher, maintaining structures ible with the “blue water experience” Creek in the 2018 Resilient by Design may become unfeasible. But in the valued by trail users. Agency planners challenge. Using coarse-grained material Hayward Shoreline Protection? like gravel, the beach and berm will help stabilize the outboard levee at Eden Landing. Project manager Laura Cholodenko says information from similar projects at Aramburu Island in the North Bay and Pier 94 in San Francisco was reviewed to help inform the design. “The 300-foot beach is a pilot project,” she explains. “If it performs well and provides erosion protection, we can scale it up and install it along other areas of the levees.” The project, now early in the permitting process, would provide roosting and foraging habitat for sensitive bird species like the California least tern and western snowy plover (see Estuary News June 2018). Considering Equity Meanwhile, in revising an older climate action plan, the City of Alameda is investigating how groundwater may compound future flooding. Groundwa- ter is also an emerging concern in East Oakland, where research reveals the potential for dangerous interactions with soil contaminants. The City of Alameda’s Climate Ac- tion and Resiliency Plan is unusual in its attention to the increased risk and social equity implications of flooding. Climate resiliency consultant Lauren Eisele, an Alameda resident, says that the island city’s original climate plan emphasized greenhouse gas emissions and was not completely implemented. She and other members of Commu- nity Action for a Sustainable Alameda (CASA) pushed for a revision. A new plan was developed by Boston consulting firm ERG. Mapping social vulnerability with an index from “Down the Middle” line of flood protection. One of three options in the Hayward shoreline adaptation plan. BCDC, the plan reported that some of Map: SCAPE continued on back page 31

Tending the Urban Earth and Its People AUDREY MEI YI BROWN, REPORTER Gardening for of the land is intimately tied to the ROBIN BEAN CRANE, RESEARCH & ART Health and Justice health of the people. Fresh produce While most activities ground to a in itself presents a health boost, Yenni Copto grafts fruit trees for ZOOM: COMMUNITY halt in the COVID-19 crisis, nature given that the area is a food desert. East Oakland’s Planting Justice, a didn’t skip a beat at urban farms “Aside from the nursery you have to combination farm, nursery, and edu- across the Bay Area. Urban farms drive to get organic food that’s not cation program that serves people meet an array of local needs, wheth- processed,” says Julio Madrigal, a er it’s for organic food, living wage impacted by mass incarceration and Planting Justice farmer. social inequity. The community the jobs, a community center, or a place As Copto’s community proves, a nursery serves has been her home to connect with nature. With the CO- food desert is not just a place of lack. for twelve years, and it is already ex- VID crisis, and with many American They can be dynamic communities, periencing tangible climate impacts. communities touched by loss and animated by people who have found fighting racism, these needs have “I remember, when I was a little innovative and resourceful ways to become even more acute. Farms, girl, the heat waves didn’t used to meet their needs despite their cir- gardens, and nurseries across the be this hot,” says Copto. She has cumstances. Bay Area are rising to the challenge. felt firsthand the escalation of heat Cultivating Community Times of extraordinary change and unbreathable air from wildfires, reveal how future climate injustices which in recent years have razed Urban farms strengthen a com- may well play out: the “haves” mar- communities across the state. Many munity’s social safety net. Even shal the means to protect them- of Copto’s neighbors have asthma, a before the COVID crisis, they offered selves and the “have-nots” bear the condition linked to prolonged expo- resources and mutual aid through burden of impacts. In particular, the sure to air high in particulate matter. informal community networks. “The nation is gaining painful insight into In East Oakland, the air is already chayote, collard greens, herbs for re- how pre-existing vulnerabilities and polluted by the 880 freeway, and spiratory distress, garlic — it was all prejudices get lethally compounded wildfires only exacerbate the pol- already growing before COVID,” says in a crisis. lution. But Copto’s neighbors have Wanda Stewart, a garden educator at noted improved air quality around Hoover Elementary School Garden in The voices of Bay Area farmers, the nursery. West Oakland. shared in this story, highlight personal experiences of climate justice and Planting Justice uses no chemical In a time when bulk food supply community resilience. Urban farms pesticides or fertilizers, in order to chains have broken down across the and gardens strengthen their com- protect the plants they grow and the country, the local scale of community munities, in the face of both climate people who eat them. From the orga- farms has emerged as a strength rather than a vulnerability. Marianne change and persistent inequality. nization’s standpoint, the resilience Olney-Hamel is a farmer with Berke- ley Basket CSA, which grows grows produce in three Berkeley backyards. The farm participates in an intricate web of cooperation. “Because we are so small and hyper-local, there is opportunity for community building and mutual aid, like some CSA members delivering boxes to those who are disabled or can’t leave the house,” says Olney-Hamel. The farms foster relationships between neighbors, and between the community and the land. Zolina Zizi is a farmer with Urban Tilth, and she maintains the community garden along the Richmond Greenway’s three-mile community bicycle and pedestrian trail, along with a nearby edible forest that boasts more than sixty varieties of fruit trees. She has observed the mutual benefits that the Greenway and the community gain from each other. “Homeless continued next page 32 ESTUARY JUNE 2020

folks have a really good relationship learned how to farm during the worst don’t own, they can’t count on being with the garden and help take care of drought in California history, Chang- able to farm it in the future, making it it, and make sure nobody bothers it,” Fleeman knows what he will be up difficult to plan ahead. Nevertheless, Zizi says. In turn, the garden’s bounty against in the future and is preparing the Collective is undeterred. “Work- is available to all for free, as a com- today. In an effort to conserve water ing within a communal structure of munity resource. and minimize impact, at Shao Shan different parcels of land will allow us all irrigation water is gathered as “It’s the ultimate in stacking func- to build a network that [provides for] rainwater catchment. The farm does tions,” says Stewart, describing the different types of disaster prepared- not divert water from streams or diverse benefits, including support ness,” she says. draw water from wells. for mental wellness, that coalesce In addition to supplying the com- in community gardens and farms. At Not all farmers are on equal foot- munity with food and jobs, the farms Hoover Elementary, she has observed ing when it comes to preparing for seek to shift how people care for the firsthand how her students’ test climate impacts. Much of a farmer’s land and each other. Before he joined scores, behavioral issues, and gen- power and ability to plan ahead Planting Justice over ten years ago, eral ability to focus improved after the hinges on land ownership, which has Madrigal wasn’t aware of the pesti- school’s garden education program been denied to many farmers of col- cides and chemicals in the food he or. That inequity galvanizes Chang- was implemented. At Planting Jus- ate. “Learning about farming opened Fleeman. “California’s agricultural tice, the staff includes people re-en- my eyes to having that connection to landscape was built by people of tering society from jail and the prison growing my own food, for myself and color, and it was stolen from them. system. The farm provides structure my family,” he says. As one of Planting and a tight-knit community. “People There needs to be a redistribution and re-allocation of wealth when it Justice’s teachers, he hopes to pass on who have worked with us have stayed that awareness to his students. out of trouble for years, because we comes to land ownership and agri- give them the support and resources culture,” he says. When it comes to raising awareness they need,” says Copto. This history affects how farm- of climate change in the community, he thinks the lessons lie in the garden. Farming for the Future ers today like Minkah Taharkah can prepare for disasters. “People who “When people grow gardens, they start In anticipation of a changing come from historically marginalized to realize that we emit a lot of pollution climate, Shao Shan Farm in Bolinas communities have certain genera- and that we have to allow nature to has intentionally stressed its crops tional setbacks that impede our abil- recover,” he says. with minimal watering and selected ity to get prepared,” says Taharkah, Taharkah also sees implicit lessons seeds for drought tolerance. Owner a farmer with the Black Earth Farms in cultivating the land that have long- Scott Chang-Fleeman is entering his Collective in Berkeley, which prac- term impacts. “We learn from plants second growing season, selling heri- tices African indigenous agroecol- that things take time. We have to move tage Asian produce to CSA members ogy on UC Berkeley-owned land at at their speed alongside them. Con- across the Bay Area as part of the the UC Gill Tract Community Farm. tinuing to return to the earth together urban greenbelt. As someone who Because they cultivate land that they is an integral part of addressing all these crises,” she says. “I don’t think the climate change piece is in any way separate from the people piece,” says Stewart. “The people systems have served me as well: sharing resources, seeds, relationships. Those relationships are what get us through. We’re tending the earth and tending its people.” 33

YOLO COUNTY Scott Stone has always done “cowboy composting,” which he explains is spreading old hay around the property. Now he is in his second Carbon Goes Deep year of a California Healthy Soils demonstration project, part of the ALETA GEORGE, REPORTER county’s greenhouse gases (GHGs). Healthy Soils Initiative, a collabora- Most of the rest is generated in the Spring is a busy time of year for tion of state agencies that promotes cities of Woodland, Davis, and West Full Belly Farm, a 400-acre certified healthy soils to increase carbon Sacramento. Although the 2011 plan organic farm in Yolo County’s Capay sequestration and reduce GHG emis- lists measures with targeted goals Valley about 90 minutes northeast sions. Stone has also applied for a of San Francisco. The farm sells for reducing and sequestering carbon by 2020, a county spokesperson second grant to plant cover crops produce to restaurants and farm- and apply compost on more range- ers’ markets in normal times, and said the measures were not tracked, land. The two projects cover about continues to sell produce and other and are therefore not reportable. 200 acres. goods through a popular CSA in these not-so-normal times. “Springtime is when we plant summer crops and are in full-on harvest of spring crops,” says Paul Muller, one of the founding owners. Added to their springtime mix of tasks is a project devoted to testing a new soil practice in collaboration with UC Davis. Full Belly Farm is participating with several other California farmers in a study of an organic, no-till vegetable produc- tion system to capture and retain the most possible carbon in the soil, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and produce healthier soils and more nutritious crops. In this second year of the three- year experiment, Full Belly Farm has planted 15 acres with a mixture of legumes and grasses — such as oats Cover crops span a walnut orchard. Source: River Garden Farms and wheat — to keep the soil con- tinuously covered. Before the cover No more normal In 2019 they had a real problem crop goes to seed, they roll it down on their hands after the 2018 County with a tractor so that the plants die Whether or not the actions of Yolo Fire burned 7,000 acres of the ranch in place and form a thick mulch mat. County farmers and ranchers are be- in July. The following winter, 36 They plant the crop seeds directly in ing tracked, many are keenly aware inches of late rain pummeled the the mulch bed without turning it over. of climate shifts and actively involved scorched ground. “In January, we in GHG reduction strategies. “By not disturbing the soil, the had about six inches over a two- whole soil system behaves very dif- Scott and Karen Stone run Yolo day event and it just tore apart the ferently,” says Muller. It captures Land & Cattle, a 7,500-acre ranch that ranch,” he says. A high-intensity fire more carbon and keeps the soil open lies partly in the Blue Ridge Ber- burns vegetation and organic mate- and porous. “A love of the plow might ryessa Natural Area. The ranch, which rial in soil, which renders it less able be a misguided relationship. Turns has been in the family for 46 years to absorb water and more suscep- out it may not be the best for the soil and has a conservation easement on tible to erosion. ecosystem,” he adds. 7,000 of its acres, runs a cow and calf operation that produces grass-fed and “There’s no such thing as a Full Belly Farm has grown crops grass-finished Angus beef. normal weather year anymore, and in the Capay Valley for 35 years, just drought keeps raising its head on a a blip in an agricultural tradition that The Stones have planted riparian pretty consistent basis,” says Stone. includes the Yocha Dehe Wintun Na- areas and hedgerows for carbon se- In the past, the ranch generally tion, whose people have tended the questration, use solar water pumps received about 18 inches of annual land for over two millennia. Agri- to reduce GHGs, and manage a rainfall starting in October, when the culture covers 87% of Yolo County, 400-acre conservation easement for weather is still warm enough to get and is the county’s largest industry. Swainson’s hawk on their irrigated the grasses growing. Later rains are pastureland. In 2007, their efforts According to a Climate Action Plan colder, and the grasses are slower to adopted by the county in 2011, agri- earned the ranch the Environmental germinate, says Stone. culture contributes just 14% of the Stewardship Award. continued on next page 34 ESTUARY JUNE 2020

The ranch has had only 11 inches of share. “It’s cool to go rain this year, leaving the stock ponds out and see flowers in the hills empty. “It’s going to be a blooming and bugs long summer and fall,” says Stone. flying around. It feels like you’re doing the Scaling up to right thing, but we scale down carbon don’t have any hard On the northeastern edge of Yolo evidence yet,” says County sits River Garden Farm, a Bruno. “It kind-of family-owned 15,000-acre operation comes back to being near the Sacramento River. Its pri- good stewards of the mary crops are rice, walnuts, sun- land, being part of flowers, and corn, which are shipped the community, and around the world. preserving a healthy environment for our- With grants from the Healthy Soils selves and for those program, River Garden Farms is cov- around us,” he adds. er-cropping a 113-acre rice field and Yolo Land & Cattle applying compost with support from the state’s De- a 300-acre walnut orchard for three Yolo County farm- partment of Food and Agriculture’s Healthy Soils Program. Photo: YLC ers and ranchers are years, and planting a riparian grass- “I do not know if I am setting not going it alone. They have sup- land and hedgerow a mile long and an example for other farmers and port from the Yolo County Resource 12 feet wide. With another recently ranchers with my projects,” says Conservation District (RCD), UC approved grant, they will cover crop Stone. “I am trying to do the right Cooperative Extension, and others. “A another 300-acre walnut orchard. “I thing for the resources that I am well-managed farm can provide more hope we are moving towards build- stewarding, and if we can share the than just food,” says RCD director ing healthier soils that can store science that shows we are doing the Heather Nichols. “Simply by being an more carbon,” says assistant general right thing for the land, then that is a open space they provide services. We manager Dominic Bruno. win for all.” want to help them produce even more The farm has been taking soil functions than they already do.” CONTACT [email protected] samples and sending them to a lab, but they do not yet have results to

CUTTINGEDGE resulted in “clean” farms across the vast acres once so important to the nation with sterile fields devoid of myriad of species that inhabited the riparian habitat, beneficial insects, Sacramento Valley,” wrote Ander- Hedgerows and healthy soils. son in 1998. He planted his drain- John Anderson, a retired UC age ditches with native trees and Make Good Davis veterinarian and founder grew hedgerows, field borders of Neighbors of Hedgerow Farms in Winters, varying plants that provide habitat bucked the notion that a producing for beneficial insects and predators. As farmer Paul Muller says, they In the early 1970s, secretary of farm had to be devoid of wildlife, “set the table” for wildlife to return. agriculture Earl Butz urged farmers and began to repair the farmland to plant “fence row to fence row” in he bought in the late 1970s. “One When Anderson discovered that order to squeeze all they could from impact of successful farming is there were few places to buy native the land. The cost of his admonition the unfortunate, lifeless state of seeds, he started Hedgerow Farms. It became a demonstration site, from which Anderson proselytized the advantages of bringing “farm edges back to life.” “Thanks to the vision of John Anderson, Yolo County has led the way in implementing these living systems.” says Heather Nichols, director of Yolo County Resource Conservation District. “RCD and others have planted 50 miles of hedgerows in Yolo County in the last 20 years.” AG

Hedgerows invite wildlife to return to field edges, providing habitat for beneficial insects, birds and and predators. Source: Hedgerow Farms 35

SACRAMENTO & SAN JOAQUIN COUNTIES Sinking Islands Capture Carbon Credits EMILY UNDERWOOD, REPORTER like gas and oil companies that are As sea-levels rise and land in the required by California law to limit Delta sinks, agencies and land- their carbon emissions. If it passes owners are recognizing that levees muster, that could raise the value of alone will not protect critical fresh- wetland-produced credits to around water supplies and infrastructure. $16 per ton, a rate that approaches Encouraged by a recently vetted what farmers can make raising corn new method for creating carbon or another traditional field crop, offsets from wetlands, a flurry of Deverel says. new climate adaptation projects on Many important questions re- publicly owned islands strewn along main to be answered, such as how the central Delta corridor aim to long farming families would have to defend against sea-level rise, restore commit to converting their land to habitat, and reduce greenhouse gas wetlands. One goal of the new res- emissions. toration projects is to test whether On May 11, the California Depart- selling carbon credits could be a ment of Water Resources (DWR) set viable economic alternative for farm- in motion a plan to flood a 1,000-acre ers whose land is increasingly too tract of Sacramento County’s Sher- wet to allow the operation of heavy man Island called “Whale’s Belly” farm equipment. “There are many with several inches of water, in places [in the Delta] that farmers hopes of creating marshland that will don’t farm because it’s a little soggy, restore fragmented wetland habitat, and it’s just not worth it to them,” slow the loss of peat, and prevent says Randall Mager, a senior envi- thousands of tons of carbon dioxide ronmental scientist with DWR. “Can from escaping into the atmosphere. we take that marginal land and turn it into full-on carbon sequestration Meanwhile back in March, the that farmers can actually make some Metropolitan Water District of South- money on?” ern California received a $1 million planning grant from the Depart- A HydroFocus employee making accretion Environmental organizations are measurements in wetlands. Photo: Max also watching the new carbon credit ment of Fish and Wildlife to conduct Schenk an assessment on four islands it market closely, in hopes that it could provide a mechanism to both fund purchased in 2016 — Bacon Island, restoration can keep out of the their own projects and help farm- Bouldin Island, Webb Tract, and atmosphere. (The team calculated ers. On Staten Island in San Joaquin a majority of Holland Tract. Over that 1,700 permanently flooded acres County, for example, The Nature the next year or so, the district will would sock away 56,000 tons of car- Conservancy is converting several consider various opportunities for bon dioxide over a five-year period.) restoration on the islands, rang- thousand acres into wetlands and ing from carbon sequestration in Now that the protocol has been rice fields to provide bird habitat, an wetland marshes to rice farming to vetted, the American Carbon Regis- undertaking that could hypotheti- promote sustainable agricultural try will be able to start selling credits cally support itself through the sale practices, then rank each island to companies that want to offset of carbon credits. Over the long run, according to its suitability for differ- their carbon footprint. The added farmers who use at least some of ent approaches, according to MWD benefits of helping wetlands and their land to sequester carbon and senior engineer Russell Ryan. protecting water supplies are likely slow the loss of peat may have a to increase the credits’ per-ton value better chance of holding on to their Until recently, the prospect of from the average of $3 to $4 per ton farms, says Dawit Zekele, associate selling carbon credits in the Delta to “maybe up to $7 or so” per ton, director of the conservancy’s land remained fairly abstract. This spring, says hydrologist Steven Deverel of program. Their farms “might look however, researchers from DWR, UC HydroFocus, who helped develop the different…but at least they’d still Davis, UC Berkeley, and the consult- protocol. preserve their investment.” ing company HydroFocus cleared an important hurdle when an inde- California’s Air Resources Board CONTACT [email protected]; pendent team of scientists approved is now evaluating the protocol for [email protected]; their protocol for determining how use in the state’s strict “compli- [email protected]; many tons of carbon Delta wetland ance market,” created for entities [email protected] San Francisco Estuary Partnership 375 Beale Street, Suite 700 San Francisco, California 94105 PRESORTED STANDARD San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento-San Joaquin River U.S. POSTAGE Delta comprise one of 28 “estuaries of national significance” P A I D recognized in the federal Clean Oakland, CA Water Act. The San Francisco Permit No. 2508 www.sfestuary.org Estuary Partnership, a National Estuary Program, is partially funded by annual appropria- tions from Congress. The Partnership’s mandate is to protect, restore, and enhance water quality and habitat in the Estuary. To accomplish this, the Partnership brings together resource agencies, non-profits, citizens, and scientists committed to the long-term health and preservation of this invaluable public resource. Our staff manages or oversees more than 50 projects ranging from supporting research into key water quality concerns to managing initiatives that prevent pollution, restore wetlands, or protect against the changes anticipated from climate change in our region. We have published Estuary News since 1993.

ESTUARY News JUNE 2020, Vol. 29, No. 2 www.sfestuary.org/estuary-news/

GUEST EDITOR Cariad Hayes Thronson MANAGING EDITOR Ariel Rubissow Okamoto DESIGNER Darren Campeau SPECIAL THANKS to the Bay Area Regional Collaborative for funding this issue (barc. COVER ILLUSTRATION: Chloe Walsh/Hassell Studio, ca.gov), and to BayCAN and its members (part of a new regional adaptation clearing- Colma Project house), for sharing their time and stories with our reporters (www.baycanadapt.org).

ALAMEDA COUNTY, cont’d from page 30 survey of historic contamination in East Funding all these projects will be Oakland, identifying a dozen or more more challenging than anyone could Alameda’s neighborhoods at near-term sites where rising groundwater could have imagined a few months ago, with risk of flooding from sea-level rise are mobilize contaminants, some of which state and local budgets stressed by pan- among the most vulnerable in terms of are no longer being monitored by the demic response. The City of Alameda has income, housing, health, and English- SF Bay Regional Water Quality Control delayed the hiring of a resiliency manag- language skills. Alameda’s bridge-and- Board. Groundwater can also contribute er and postponed an infrastructure bond tunnel links to Oakland and existing to seismic risk through soil liquefaction, and other revenue measures, according hardened shoreline infrastructure pose particularly in areas of Bay fill like West to CASA’s Abbe. “In the face of COVID it challenges to adaptation, but the plan Oakland and Alameda. tends to look a little grim,” Hayward’s proposes nature-based solutions (liv- Richard notes. “But it’s really long-range. Hill says regulators and climate ing shorelines, wetland restoration) for We have a lot of time to pursue grant op- adaptation planners have overlooked other areas. “Several of the major ad- tions, look at different funding sources.” groundwater. That’s changing, though: aptation projects will require increases Richard and Golubics are looking at Res- groundwater is being incorporated in the in local funding, as well as federal and toration Authority funding for Hayward. regional grants,” says longtime CASA Adapting to Rising Tides database, and a Another resource may be the EBRPD’s leader Ruth Abbe. current collaborative proposal could fund more comprehensive mapping through a Green Bonds, which can be used for ad- The influence of sea-level rise on Bay Planning Coalition adaptation grant. aptation, as well as other purposes. The groundwater levels was not included in district’s vegetation clearance for wildfire the plan’s flooding vulnerability assess- While rising seas threaten coastal risk reduction was funded in a special- ment; the city of Alameda has hired assets, EBRPD and the cities are bracing district measure 16 years ago; the district Christine May of Silvestrum Climate for ever-lengthening fire seasons. The is now advocating for more funding and East Bay Hills are a type specimen of the Associates to fill this gap. Rising seas personnel. wildland-urban interface areas common could push groundwater up, encroaching throughout the drying West. “Our fire chief Pfeuhler has heard talk of a possible on pipes and basements and emerging is very concerned about Tilden Regional state climate stimulus bond initiative to flood the surface, according to another Park” on the Alameda/Contra Costa line, for a future ballot. For now, he says he’d expert, UC Berkeley’s Kristina Hill. Using says Holt. “In Oakland, the area of the like to see better regional coordination data on wells along the Bayshore, Hill, 1991 Tunnel Fire has historically burned to support adaptation to the heightened May, and UC researcher Ellen Plane every 20 to 30 years,” he says. EBRPD’s risks of fire and flood: “We need to figure mapped potential groundwater flooding Wildfire Hazard Reduction and Resource out a way to address funding that’s more hotspots. In a 2019 article, they reported Management Plan, adopted in 2010, had holistic, less piecemeal.” significant potential for groundwater a long and tortuous path to implementa- [email protected]; flooding in parts of Oakland, Hayward, CONTACT tion, complicated by changes in regional [email protected]; and Fremont, including Interstates 580 partnerships and litigation over eucalyp- [email protected]; and 880 and the Oakland airport. tus removal. “We have a thinning plan for [email protected]; Flooding is only part of the risk. eucalyptus,” Holt explains. “It’s not practi- [email protected] Hill and her students just completed a cal to remove them all.”