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We Expect HSI to Move Within a Trading Range of 21,300-22,800 In

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We Expect HSI to Move Within a Trading Range of 21,300-22,800 In 10th Aug, 2016 Hang Seng Index Performance Index Performance Abs chg % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Day 1-Mth 3-Mth Hang Seng Index 22,465.61 -29.15 -0.13 9.25 10.98 HSCI 3,030.77 0.91 0.03 8.63 10.07 HSCCI (Red Chips) 3,845.15 25.79 0.68 7.43 8.27 HSCEI (H-Shares) 9,301.17 24.61 0.27 8.98 9.60 Mkt T/O ($ Mn) 53,244.88 -7,549.20 -12.42 12.82 -2.51 Oversea DJIA 18,533.05 3.76 0.02 2.13 3.37 NASDAQ 5,225.48 12.34 0.24 5.42 8.64 Shanghai SE Composite 3,025.68 21.40 0.71 1.26 6.82 Crude Oil Futures (US$) 42.68 -0.09 -0.21 -6.01 -4.43 Gold Futures (US$) 1,344.50 2.40 0.18 -1.02 6.30 Baltic Dry Index 631.00 -5.00 -0.79 -10.24 2.44 USD / Euro 1.1135 0.0032 0.29 0.74 -2.17 Yen / USD 101.570 -0.3800 0.37 1.17 7.59 HSCEI HSI 20-Day MA 9,054.58 21,915.29 50-Day MA 8,826.52 21,167.16 Source: Bloomberg 9-Day RSI 68.34 67.61 Market Outlook Eric Yuen - [email protected] Hang Seng Index closed down 0.1% at 22,465. Market turnover decreased to $53.2 billion. Heavily weighted Tencent (700) and HSBC (5) both decreased 0.3%. China Mobile (941) cut 1.2%. Local banks and property stocks were mixed. We expect HSI to move CK Property (1113) and BOC Hong Kong (2388) climbed 0.2%-0.7%. Link REIT (823) and Hang Seng Bank (11) shrank 2.4% and 0.7% respectively. Eight largest within a trading range Chinese property developers grew an average 1.7%. Gaming operators Sands of 21,300-22,800 in China (1928) and Galaxy Entertainment (27) soared 0.8%-1.7%. Food & beverage companies like Tingyi (322) and Want Want China (151) added 1.1%- August but the risk is 3.1%. CITIC Ltd (267), the best performing index stock, jumped 3.5%. on the downside HSCEI advanced 0.3%. China Railway Group (390) surged 3.8%, the most in HSCEI. Sinopharm (1099) and China Oilfield Services (2883) increased 1.9%- 2.0%. Huaneng Power (902) and CGN Power (1816) rose 1.3%-1.5%. Financial stocks moved without a clear direction. ICBC (1398) and CCB (939) went up 0.4%-0.6% whilst China Merchants Bank (3968) retreated 0.3%. Haitong Securities (6837) and CITIC Securities (6030) saw a gain of 0.5%-0.8%. PICC P&C (2328) and New China Life (1336) both declined 1.0%. We expect Hang Seng Index to move within a trading range of 21,300-22,800 this month but the risk is on the downside. Remarks: Mason Securities Ltd (“Mason Securities”) is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to carry on ｜ ｜ Types 1, 4, and 6 regulated activities in Hong Kong. Mason Futures Ltd is licensed by the Securities and Futures Securities Futures Bullion Commission to carry on Type 2 regulated activity in Hong Kong. Bullion trading service is provided by Mason Bullion Ltd. Industry / Corporate News Eric Yuen - [email protected] Maintain BUY China State Construction Int’l (3311) ahead of strong interim results announcement Maintain BUY • Earnings dilution from recent share placement has been discounted in share price Risk Level: Medium • Signed two JVs in July to expand investment in China’s infrastructure projects • Cheap valuation at 2016 PER of 9.1x with 2-year EPS CAGR of 15% Time Horizon: Long China State Construction International (3311, CSCI, $10.96) surged 5.0% since our latest commentary dated July 12 but underperformed Hang Seng Index by 2.4% over the same period. We believe the dilution effect from the share placement with major shareholder in May to finance acquisition of an investment property has been fully discounted. The release of strong interim results on August 15 and increased exposure to China’s infrastructure investments may trigger a re-rating of CSCI. In July this year, CSCI formed a 50:50 JV with a subsidiary of its parent company to undertake the infrastructure works in Chengdu. The aggregate investment of the Chengdu JV is RMB600mn. CSCI also established a 72:18:10 JV with a subsidiary of its parent company and Tangshan Caofeidian for financing and investing in the infrastructure projects in Tangshan City, Hebei Province. The Tangshan JV shall have a registered capital of RMB527mn. CSCI is one of the largest affordable housing contractors in China and a leading building contractor in HK/Macau. It has strong execution capability and proven track record of delivering decent earnings growth. From 2012 to 2015, CSCI’s revenue and earnings increased at a CAGR of 24.2% and 24.9% respectively. EPS CAGR stood at 21.6% and gross margin was stable at 13.3%-13.8% during the period. In 2015, the company’s revenue increased by 10.1% to $37.91bn of which 43%, 39% and 14% were contributed by the Hong Kong, Mainland China and Macau markets respectively. Net profits surged 20.1% to $4.15bn. Net margin improved from 10.0% to 11.0% partly due to lower effective tax rate. EPS grew 16.2%. DPS rose 26.9% to $0.33 implying an increase in dividend payout ratio from 29.3% to 32.0%. In 1Q16, the company’s revenue grew 18.2% yoy to $8.72bn while the operating profits expanded 20.2% yoy to $1.29bn. CSCI’s new contracts value increased by 16.3% yoy to $70.1bn in 2015 of which the Hong Kong market, Mainland China market and the Macau market accounted for 19.5%, 68.9% and 7.8% respectively. Management target for new contracts to be awarded this year is no less than $78.0bn, representing an 11.4% increase over the actual contract value achieved in 2015. In the first half of 2016, the company recorded an accumulated new contract value of $43.0bn and hence achieved a 55% completion of the full year target. As of 30 June 2016, the company’s on-hand contract value amounted to $239.0bn among which the backlog was approximately $145.5bn, equivalent to 3.8 times of the company’s revenue in 2015. Obviously, the company has sufficient projects to ensure earnings growth in coming two years. According to Bloomberg estimates, the company’s earnings are expected to reach $5.12bn in 2016 and $6.15bn in 2017, up 23% and 20% yoy respectively. Due to dilution from share placement, we expect EPS growth to be 16% in 2016 and 14% in 2017. Traded at 2016 PER of 9.1x with 2-year EPS CAGR of 15% from 2015 to 2017, valuation of CSCI is undervalued compared to its 5-year average forward PER of 13.2x. We maintain a BUY on CSCI with an unchanged 12-month price target of $13.0 based on 2016 PER of 11.0x. Analysts’ consensus price target is $14.7. Recent Recommendations Stock Pick Rating Recommendation Highlights TP Lai Sun Development (488) BUY BUY Lai Sun Development (488) on distressed valuation $0.185 Reiterate BUY on Galaxy Entertainment (27) as valuation turns attractive after Galaxy Entertainment (27) BUY $32.3 recent retreat Country Garden (2007) BUY BUY Country Garden (2007) as interim results may beat market expectation $3.75 Trading BUY on Maanshan Iron (323) as its 2Q16 earnings recovery beat our Maanshan Iron (323) BUY $2.08 expectation Huadian Fuxin Energy (816) BUY Maintain BUY Huadian Fuxin Energy (816) on attractive valuation $2.30 Lee & Man Paper (2314) BUY Maintain BUY on Lee & Man Paper (2314) amid solid interim earnings $7.39 Hua Hong Semiconductor 2Q16 earnings beat market expectation - Maintain BUY Hua Hong BUY $9.30 (1347) Semiconductor (1347) Xinyi Glass (868) BUY Maintain BUY on Xinyi Glass (868) amid strong interim results $7.82 SHK Properties (16) BUY Maintain SHK Properties (16) due to a recovery of residential market $121.0 Johnson Electric (179) BUY Recommend BUY on Johnson Electric (179) on potential earnings recovery $21.72 Technical Ideas Risk: Medium AVIC Int’l (232, $0.59) TP: $0.68 BUY Time Horizon: Short • AVIC International manufactures and markets aircraft. The company produces fighters, trainers, bombers, helicopters, transporters, general aviation aircraft, associated airborne equipment, and spare parts. • Counter rose 9.3% yesterday with exceptional turnover, breaking through sma50 whilst testing sma100. MACD showed positive crossing, indicating a bullish trend ahead. • BUY. Short-term target at $0.68. Cut loss at $0.53. Consensus 2016 PER: N.A. Consensus target price: N.A. Source: Bloomberg, Mason Securities Risk: Low Longfor Properties (960, $11.44) TP: $12.7 BUY Time Horizon: Short • Longfor Properties operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China. • Counter rose 2.0% yesterday, breaking out from the upper-end of its 13-month trading range. Turnover was huge, with trading volume equals to 5.2x of its 3-month daily average. MACD showed positive crossing, indicating a bullish trend ahead. • BUY. Short-term target at $12.7. Cut loss at $10.6. Consensus 2016 PER: 7.0x Consensus target price: $13.90 Source: Bloomberg, Mason Securities RSI Indicator Overbought (9-day RSI> 80) Oversold (9-day RSI<20) Tickers Tickers 5, 47, 62, 119, 123, 283, 343, 363, 370, 420, 519, 576, 604, 683, 737, 750, 821, 832, 842, 855, 868, 881, 884, 921, 952, 1030, 1098, 1115, 1124, 1233, 1238, 1219, 1321, 1993, 3823 1333, 1438, 1443, 1628, 1813, 1893, 1918, 1986, 2202, 2345, 2678, 2698, 2778, 2868, 2869, 3300, 3301, 3308, 3315, 3333, 3360, 3366, 3380, 3638, 3998, 6865 Exceptional Turnover & Price Movements Stock Last Price Turnover / 3-mth Target price up / 2016 Stock Rating*^ Code Price ($) Change (%) daily avg turnover downside (%)* PER* Coastal Greenland 1124 0.25 31.6 230.3 N/A N/A N/A Pacific Plywood 767 0.59 13.5 4.8 N/A N/A N/A Sino Prosper Group 766 0.26 12.1 104.8 N/A N/A N/A West China Cement 2233 0.77 10.0 4.7 36.6 3.3 27.5 AVIC International 232 0.59 9.3 5.9 N/A N/A N/A Shenzhen Investment 604 3.59 8.8 6.2 32.0 4.9 8.7 Renhe Commercial 1387 0.23 7.6 4.5 N/A N/A N/A Nagacorp 3918 5.78 7.2 19.9 11.6 4.9 10.1 Poly Property 119 2.35 6.8 5.2 -17.0 2.2 31.8
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