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The VIEW the the VIEW Asia’S Bond Markets

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The VIEW the the VIEW Asia’S Bond Markets Fixed Income Asia Credit March 2019 By: HSBC Asia credit research team www.research.hsbc.com The VIEW The VIEW Asia’s Bond Markets We believe the Asian credit markets will face a few speed bumps along the way to impressive full-year returns Also inside We have adopted a more neutral Fixed Income Asia // Credit stance towards the USD China LGFV bond space, and believe an offshore bond default is unlikely in the short term We see a hat-trick in the making for China property HY and expect a third consecutive record year of issuance Play interview with Dilip Shahani March 2019 Disclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Fixed Income ● Asia Credit March 2019 THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (THE “PRC”) (EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAO) Editorial In the Overview for Asia credit strategy, we explain why we think the stellar performance of the Asian credit market in the first two months of the year cannot continue uninterrupted for the remainder of 2019 without at least one bout of profit-taking. There’s no doubt that investors were reassured by signals from the US Federal Reserve that monetary policy will be held steady for an extended period. However, we think a number of uncertainties, led by the risk of higher US or China interest rates and unresolved trade talk issues, could rattle sentiment. Translating the latest pluses and minuses into numbers, we revise our forecasts for the benchmark iBoxx ADBI and AHBI-corp spreads to 185bp and 580bp, respectively, by end 1H19 (from 210bp and 700bp), and 190bp and 590bp by the end of the year (from 200bp and 680bp). In Credit Review, the positive momentum for Asian credits continued for a second month but at a slightly slower pace. The average spreads of the ADBI and AHBI-Corp indices tightened another 9bp and 44bp, respectively, to 175bp and 586bp. They have returned to the levels seen back in the summer of 2018, marking a full recovery from the correction in 4Q18. In total returns1, ADBI and AHBI-Corp posted gains of 0.8% and 1.6% in February, respectively, and 2.6% and 5.3% in the first two months of 2019. The favourable sentiment has been supported by signs that US interest rates will not rise in the near future and easing tensions between the US and China. The primary market stayed in centre stage, bringing in another USD23.8bn of new USD bonds during the month. Total supply year-to-date has risen to USD53.6bn, 12% higher than the same time last year. However, the three international rating agencies maintained their relatively dim view on Asian corporates. The rating actions have leaned to the negative side in the past two months. Separately, Qinghai Provincial Investment declared that a cross-default event was triggered due to a coupon payment delay on its 2020 bonds. Hong Kong takes the spotlight in the sovereign section this month, with the government delivering its budget for FY2019-20. There are near-term headwinds for the export sector and possible further modest monetary tightening could hurt domestic activities. As a result, the government projects a smaller fiscal surplus from a year ago. Having said that, the authorities continue to spend for the future with regards to social programmes and opportunities related to greater integration with Chinese cities close to Hong Kong. Despite the market’s growing concern about China’s debt situation, the USD China LGFV bond space grew 4% in 2018, to USD43bn. Now that the first high-yield rated LGFV USD bond to mature in 2019 has been repaid in full (USD300m NHLHK’19, due on 11 January 2019), we believe re-pricing activities among weaker high-yield names should decline considerably. Therefore, we adopt a more neutral stance towards the space, believing that the risk of offshore USD bond defaults has abated. 1 Total returns defined as sum of capital returns and accrual returns in USD. 1 Fixed Income ● Asia Credit March 2019 Credit investors’ attention has shifted from discussions about USD HY bond defaults a few months ago to going down the credit curve for yield enhancement in 1Q19. The view that the default risks of China property HY bonds might be overstated has now become market consensus. Despite our positive stance on China property HY, we have underestimated the magnitude of spread compression year-to-date. Taking into account the pick-up in investor demand and developers being able to issue longer-dated bonds at manageable cost, as well as the wall of USD bond maturity from 2020 and onwards, we now expect USD38-40bn of China property HY bond issuance in 2019e, up from our previous forecast of USD8-10bn. This would mean a third consecutive year of record issuance, translating into USD18-20bn of gross supply for the rest of 2019. Given improved funding dynamics in both the onshore and offshore bond markets, we are more comfortable with high-beta China property developers. To be specific, we have buy trading calls on China Fortune Land’s CHFOTNs and Zhenro Properties’ ZHPRHKs. Among the benchmark names, our preferred picks remain Country Garden’s COGARDs. With the US Fed near if not at the peak of its rate hike cycle, we also recommend investors extend duration on China property HY bonds via China Evergrande’s EVERREs. 2 Fixed Income ● Asia Credit March 2019 This page has been left blank intentionally 3 Fixed Income ● Asia Credit March 2019 Contents Editorial 1 Overview 5 Focus List 16 Credit Review 22 Top and bottom performers of the month 29 Sovereign Risk Analysis 31 Monthly Focus: Hong Kong SAR 32 Republic of Singapore 37 Socialist Republic of Vietnam 41 Credit Research 45 China Onshore Insights: Gauging the public sector deficit 46 China Property HY 63 Company News & Analysis 75 Financial Institutions 76 Corporates 90 Asian Economics Desk Reference 118 Asia Credit Coverage 122 Spread and Curve Charts 125 Appendix 133 HSBC Databank 134 Disclosure appendix 155 Disclaimer 164 4 Fixed Income ● Asia Credit March 2019 Overview Time to catch your breath We don’t expect the strong recovery of the first two months of 2019 to continue uninterrupted for the rest of the year A number of uncertainties, led by the risk of higher US and Chinese term rates and unresolved trade talk issues, could rattle sentiment But we are still optimistic enough to revise our forecasts for iBoxx ADBI and AHBI-corp spreads to 190bp and 590bp by end-2019, respectively (previously 200bp and 680bp) Dilip Shahani Introduction Head of Global Research, Asia Pacific The Hongkong and Shanghai The Asian credit market’s strong recovery continued for a second consecutive month from both Banking Corporation Limited a spread and total return performance perspective. By end-February, the iBoxx ADBI and AHBI- [email protected] +852 2822 4520 corp spreads stood at 175bp and 586bp, respectively, compared with a wide print of 211bp and 752bp, respectively, year-to-date (see Fig 1). Market participants’ rising confidence about adding risk to portfolios was underpinned by an interplay of constructive fundamental and technical factors over the month. On the external side, the Federal Reserve clearly signalled that monetary policy would be held steady for the foreseeable future in order to assess the full impact of past adjustments on the economy. The mixed US economic data suggesting some loss of momentum and inflation being well contained helped to solidify the belief among investors that the Federal Reserve would keep monetary policy steady for an extended period. Sentiment was also boosted by the US government averting another shutdown as well as the Chinese and US administrations signalling progress on trade talks ahead of the possible imposition of additional tariffs from the start of March. Finally, the US President had indicated that the implementation of further tariff hikes would be delayed as sufficient progress had been made during the negotiations in areas such as opening the Chinese domestic economy, rolling back state subsidies and the protection of foreign technologies. Fig 1 Asia credit spreads recover from y-t-d wide prints 250 750 752 230 675 216 210 211 600 606 190 525 170 450 160 418 150 375 130 300 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 1/19 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 1/19 +/-1 std iBoxx ADBI +/-1 std iBoxx AHBI-Corp Source: IHS Markit, HSBC 5 Fixed Income ● Asia Credit March 2019 From a regional aspect, we believe market participants were increasingly positioning for favourable policy support as domestic economic activities slowed in a number of countries. For instance, the Reserve Bank of India surprised the financial markets last month by lowering its key policy rate by 25bp to 6.25% and the central government also announced an expansionary fiscal stance for the year ahead. Likewise, China, Korea and Singapore are running positive fiscal positions to complement neutral to slightly accommodative monetary policies to support domestic economic activities. Technical considerations added a positive tailwind, causing Asian credit spreads to compress back to levels last seen in the early part of 4Q18. The primary issuance was muted in part due to the Chinese New Year holidays and general uncertainty about the future, resulting in issuers being cautious about leveraging up their balance sheets. At the same time, institutional investors were caught off guard by the strong rally in the Asian credit market from early January.
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