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China / Hong Kong Industry Focus China Property Sector Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 19 Jul 2018 1H18 results preview: Interim results likely to serve as positive catalysts HSI: 28,117 Most developers likely to post double-digit core ANALYST earnings growth; high overall dividend yield but not Danielle WANG CFA, +852 2820 4915 expecting any surprises [email protected] Ken HE CFA, +86 21 6888 3375 Expect gearing to be higher than end-2017, and funding [email protected] cost to be higher as well Carol WU +852 2863 8841 Most are likely to maintain their presales targets except [email protected] Jason LAM +852 2971 1773 for China Jinmao (817 HK) and Shui On Land (272 HK) [email protected] Prefer Shimao (813 HK), Evergrande (3333 HK), and Country Garden (2007 HK) Top picks Expect decent core earnings growth with strong growth in top line, but higher net debt ratio and funding costs. Overall, most T arget Mk t F Y19F of the developers are likely to enjoy double-digit growth in core Price Price Rec Cap PE earnings. Evergrande (3333 HK), Country Garden (2007 HK), HK$ HK$ US$bn x Aoyuan (3383 HK), CIFI (884 HK), Longfor (960 HK), CR Land Country Garden (1109 HK), KWG (1813 HK), and GZ R&F (2777 HK) are likely to 12.52 20.65 BUY 34.8 4.0 (2007 HK) report over 30% y-o-y growth in core earnings with stable gross Evergrande margins. Although some investors are expecting new revenue 20.40 40.51 BUY 34.4 4.4 booking method under IFRS 15 starting from 2018 will (3333 HK) Shimao Property accelerate developers’ revenue book and in turn help earning 21.15 28.77 BUY 9.2 5.5 growth, our discussions with developers indicate that most of (813 HK) them expect limited impact on their earnings. This is due to (1) Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBS HK”) companies are not well prepared to provide sufficient support documents for construction progress; and (2) different auditors have different interpretation of the accounting rule. Most developers to maintain sales targets despite a decent hit- rate in 1H18. Major listed developers have locked in on average 49% of their full-year sales targets, which is lower than 56% achieved in 1H17. China Jinmao and Shui On Land are likely to revise up targets, since their 1H18 lock-in ratios have respectively hit 78% and 114%, while most other developers are likely to maintain their current targets given the uncertain market outlook in 4Q18. We are expecting developers to report a higher interim net debt ratio compared to end-FY17, together with higher funding cost. Given the tightening credit environment, we do not expect developers to surprise the market by lifting dividend payout ratio or announcing a special dividend. Prefer Shimao (813 HK), Evergrande (3333 HK), and Country Garden (2007 HK). In 2015 when RMB witnessed an unexpected sharp depreciation, the China property sector traded at the lowest forward PE of 4.5x. The sector is now trading at 6.1x FY18F PE and 4.6x FY19F PE, which is not far from the trough. FY18E/FY19E sector average dividend yield reached 6.0%/7.3%. We prefer names with sufficient landbank, able to leverage on partnerships, strong YTD presales, and disciplined landbanking strategy along with financing capability. We like Shimao, Evergrande, COLI, Country Garden, and CR Land. In terms of valuation, Country Garden, Evergrande and Shimao are our top picks. ed-JS / sa-AH / CS Industry Focus China Property Sector Interim results trend Company Net debt level 1H18 revenue expectation Expected Expected Gross margin Expected net compared with end-17 yoy revenue gross margin v s F Y17 profit yoy growth growth Agile 3383 HK ↑ to c. 80% 45% of full year ↑ >37% → ↑ ↑ CIFI 884 HK ↑ but <80% 35% yoy growth ↑ ↑ Stable at 27% → ↑ ↑ Central China 832 HK ↑ Slight increase ↑ c. 25% → ↑ Longfor 960 HK ↑ but <70% 30% of full year ↑ ↑ c. 34% → ↑ COLI 688 HK ↓from 1Q18 >40% but <50% of full year ↑ 32% ↑ ↑ CR Land 1109 HK ↑, but <50% >40% of full year ↑ ↑ >40% ↑ ↑ ↑ Shimao 813 HK ↑, but <65% up 15-20% y-o-y ↑ >30% ↑ ↑ KWG 1813 HK ↑ to c. 70% >Rmb10bn ↑ ↑ c. 35% → ↑ ↑ Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK ↑ from end-17's 173% 35-40% of full year delivery ↑ ↑ c. 38% → ↑ ↑ Evergrande 3333 HK ↓<140% c. Rmb300bn ↑ ↑ >30% ↑ ↑ ↑ SOHO* 410 HK ↓<50% rents up 10% y-o-y ↑ 75-80% ↑ ↑ Yanlord YLLG SP → at c. 50% >Rmb12bn ↑ 45+% → ↑ Country Garden 2007 HK ↑ but <70% 30% of full year ↑ ↑ c. 25-27% →↑ ↑ ↑ Yuexiu 123 HK ↑ to c. 80% 40% of full year ↓ c.25% → → Yuzhou 1628 HK ↑ to c. 80% >20% yoy growth ↑ c. 32% → ↑ China SCE 1966 HK ↑ to 80%-85% 30% of full year ↑ 30-32% ↓ ↑ ↑ Aoyuan 3883 HK ↑ 60%+ >Rmb10bn ↑ ↑ 26-27% → ↑ ↑ Logan 3380 HK <70% 30% of full year ↑ 36-37% →↑ ↑ Times 1233 HK ↑, but 70% 30% of full year ↑ 26-28% →↑ ↑ ↑↑ means over 30% growth Source: DBS. HK Page 2 Industry Focus China Property Sector Results announcement dates Company Company Date in 2017 Date in 2018 Jinmao investment 6139 HK 8/7/2017 8/14/2018 China Jinmao 817 HK * 8/8/2017 likely 8/28/2018 CIFI 884 HK 8/9/2017 8/15/2018 Yuexiu REIT 405 HK 8/9/2017 8/2/2018 Logan Property 3380 HK 8/10/2017 Mid-Aug COGO 81 HK * 8/10/2017 8/22/2018 Yanlord YLLG SP * 8/15/2017 2nd week of Aug (13 or 14 Aug) Longfor 960 HK 8/16/2017 8/21/2018 China Aoyuan 3883 HK 8/17/2017 8/20/2018 Beijing Capital Land 2868 HK 8/18/2017 8/24/2018 COLI 688 HK * 8/21/2017 8/23/2018 Joy City 207 HK 8/21/2017 8/20/2018 SOHO China 410 HK * 8/22/2017 8/17/2018 R&F 2777 HK 8/22/2017 8/24/2018 Yuzhou 1628 HK 8/22/2017 8/24/2018 CR Land 1109 HK * 8/23/2017 8/20/2018 Sino Ocean 3377 HK * 8/24/2017 8/23/2018 Vanke B200002 * 8/24/2017 8/20/2018 Red Star 1528 HK 8/28/2017 8/27/2018 Agile 3383 HK * 8/28/2017 last week of Aug Evergrande 3333 HK * 8/28/2017 8/28/2018 Shimao 813 HK * 8/29/2017 8/28/2018 Yuexiu 123 HK * 8/13/2018 Central China 832 HK * 8/30/2017 8/22/2018 Sunac 1918 HK 8/30/2017 Likely 8/31/2018 Country Garden 2007 HK * 2H Aug 8/21/2018 KWG 1813 HK End Aug 2nd week of Aug China SCE 1966 HK 8/23/2018 Color Life 1778 HK Around Aug 20, 2018 Greentown Services 2869 HK 8/24/2018 A-Living 3319 HK 8/9/2018 CG Services 6098 HK 8/22/2018 * DBS HK Coverage Source: DBS HK Page 3 Industry Focus China Property Sector Most developers are on track to exceed sales targets this year 1 2 3 3> 6M17 Targeted growth 6M18 yoy growth 2>1? 6M18 lock in lock in? Likelihood to achieve target Large cap COLI 688 HK 25% 18% FALSE 52% FALSE Challenging CR Land 1109 HK 20% 32% TRUE 20% FALSE Might Vanke 2202 HK 13% 10% FALSE 51% FALSE Challenging CG 2007 HK 45% 43% FALSE 52% FALSE Challenging Evergrande 3333 HK 10% 25% TRUE 55% TRUE Likely Longfor 960 HK 28% 5% FALSE 49% FALSE Challenging Sunac 1918 HK 24% 76% TRUE 43% TRUE Likely Large cap average 24% 22% 46% Mid cap Agile 3383 HK 23% 16% FALSE 43% FALSE Challenging BJ Cap Land 2868 HK 34% 47% TRUE 48% TRUE Likely China Jinmao Hldgs 817 HK 59% 198% TRUE 78% TRUE Likely CIFI 884 HK 35% 40% TRUE 47% TRUE Likely Future Land 1030 HK 42% 94% TRUE 53% TRUE Likely Greentown 3900 HK 14% 7% FALSE 40% FALSE Challenging R&F 2777 HK 59% 47% FALSE 44% FALSE Challenging KWG 1813 HK 71% 82% TRUE 50% FALSE Might Logan 3380 HK 52% 84% TRUE 54% TRUE Likely Shimao 813 HK 39% 60% TRUE 52% TRUE Likely Sino-Ocean 3377 HK 42% 48% TRUE 45% TRUE Likely Yuexiu 123 HK 35% 40% TRUE 51% TRUE Likely Mid-cap average 40% 51% 50% Small cap Aoyuan 3883 HK 60% 144% TRUE 55% TRUE Likely CCRE 832 HK 48% 82% TRUE 56% TRUE Likely SCE 1966 HK 50% 34% FALSE 42% TRUE Might COGO* 81 HK 27% 54% TRUE 61% TRUE Likely Greenland HK 337 HK 33% -6% FALSE 38% FALSE Challenging Poly HK 119 HK 6% 9% TRUE 60% TRUE Likely Powerlong 1238 HK 67% 80% TRUE 47% TRUE Likely Shui On Land* 272 HK 15% 212% TRUE 114% TRUE Likely Times 1233 HK 32% 53% TRUE 47% TRUE Likely Yuzhou 1628 HK 49% 0% FALSE 36% FALSE Challenging Small cap average 39% 66% 49% Average (Overall)# 36% 50% 49% Source: Company, DBS HK Page 4 Industry Focus China Property Sector Interim results preview — Key things to watch CIFI (884.HK) CIFI’s fast land acquisition pace in 1H18 is positive to support growth. How is the balance sheet holding up? Where is the Agile (3383.HK) funding from? Does management expect tightening credit What is the impact of Hainan’s policy tightening? environment to impact CIFI’s long term growth plans? What is the progress of refinancing and repayment of short What level will margins be maintained at? term debt? Saleable resources in 2H18 and the management's view on Agile has entered a couple of new cities in 2017 and 1H18.
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