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Shimao Property Holdings 0813.HK, 813 HK in Search of the Next Growth Driver Price: HK$11.98 ▼ Price Target: HK$15.20 Previous: HK$16.00

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Shimao Property Holdings 0813.HK, 813 HK in Search of the Next Growth Driver Price: HK$11.98 ▼ Price Target: HK$15.20 Previous: HK$16.00 Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 March 2016 Overweight Shimao Property Holdings 0813.HK, 813 HK In search of the next growth driver Price: HK$11.98 ▼ Price Target: HK$15.20 Previous: HK$16.00 Shimao’s FY2015 results came in broadly in line. Core net profit was down 20% China Y/Y driven by margin deterioration, which is likely stabilizing thanks to recent China / Hong Kong Property market rebound. We believe Shimao’s management is logical enough to preserve AC Ryan Li, CFA cash and is not aggressive in land-banking when land price is rising significantly, (852) 2800-8529 hence net gearing on total equity basis stayed low. Shimao is patiently waiting for [email protected] land-banking opportunity, and they have slowly demonstrated their ability in Bloomberg JPMA RLI <GO> seeking and closing deals in the secondary market, including a piece in Shanghai Karl Chan in 2015 and recently a piece in Beijing. Should Shimao be able to buy cheap (852) 2800-8513 landbank in top tier cities using low-cost capital, we believe Shimao will resume [email protected] its growth pace soon, which is a free option attaching to today’s stock price at 5x Jevon Jim 2016E P/E. We believe the lack of growth is fully priced in, and with potential (852) 2800-8538 chairman buyback in the near term, together with strong sales momentum from [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited YRD, we stay OW with Dec-2016 PT of HK$15.2, based on 6.5x 2016E P/E. A common post-expansion syndrome: Shimao’s margin-squeeze and Price Performance slowdown in growth is a common syndrome among developers which 20 experienced big growth in scale. This happened to Vanke in 2010-12, Longfor 16 in 2012-14, CR Land in 2012-14 and Country Garden in 2013-15. The thing HK$ 12 that we believe Shimao has done better is that given they have multiple fund- 8 raising-platforms, enabling them to control funding cost (via cheap on-shore Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 funding), and to opportunistically raise equity (via on-shore Shanghai Shimao) 0813.HK share price (HK$) from minority shareholders. Thus, Shimao’s net gearing stayed low at <60% on HSCEI (rebased) YTD 1m 3m 12m total equity. This helps prevent the surge in interest cost which could cause a Abs -10.7% 19.1% -13.2% -28.2% second round of margin squeeze, like what R&F could experience soon. Rel -7.1% 5.7% -6.2% -1.2% Management quality is still good: Management is aware of the challenges in operations ahead, and has done pre-emptive measures, including the de-stocking in 2015, slowdown of construction in low-tier cities, and re-entry into top tier cities. We believe Shimao also stands out with its cultural (cinema) and commercial experiences, which may enable them to get integrated land cheaply. Moreover, given the decrease in inventory along YRD, we have held a more optimistic outlook for cities in the region. Shimao, with half of its GAV along YRD, should be the key beneficiary. On the back of all this, we think Shimao should still trade at a premium to peers whose management may not be as strong. Shimao Property Holdings (Reuters: 0813.HK, Bloomberg: 813 HK) Rmb in mn, year-end Dec FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Company Data Revenue (Rmb mn) 56,081 57,733 63,470 72,184 70,639 Shares O/S (mn) 3,473 Net Profit (Rmb mn) 7,185 4,816 5,741 6,142 6,628 Market Cap (Rmb mn) 34,908 Core Profit (Rmb mn) 7,531 6,005 6,771 7,172 7,658 Market Cap ($ mn) 5,364 EPS (Rmb) 2.07 1.39 1.66 1.77 1.92 Price (HK$) 11.98 Core EPS (Rmb) 2.17 1.74 1.96 2.07 2.21 Date Of Price 30 Mar 16 Core EPS growth (%) 14.0% (20.2%) 12.8% 5.9% 6.8% Free Float(%) 40.0% DPS (Rmb) 0.71 0.58 0.66 0.78 0.92 3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 6.82 ROE 17.0% 12.4% 12.0% 11.0% 10.9% 3M - Avg daily val (HK$ mn) 76.73 P/E (Core) 4.6 5.8 5.1 4.9 4.5 3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 9.9 P/BV (x) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 HSCEI 8979.41 BVPS (Rmb) 13.53 14.50 18.22 19.63 21.05 Exchange Rate 7.76 RNAV/Share 17.26 18.64 - - Price Target End Date 31-Dec-16 Dividend Yield 7.1% 5.8% 6.6% 7.8% 9.1% Price Target (HK$) 15.20 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. See page 13 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com Ryan Li, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research (852) 2800-8529 31 March 2016 [email protected] Key catalyst for the stock price: Upside risks to our view: Downside risks to our view: Strong saleable resources and launch (1) Better-than-expected development margin (1) Less-than-expected contracted sales pipeline (2) Substantially NAV accretive acquisition (2) Slippage of completion schedule (3) Potential chairman buyback (3) Credit tightening (4) Further policy tightening in tier-1/2 cities Key financial metrics FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E Valuation and price target basis Revenues (LC) 56,081 57,733 63,470 72,184 We are lowering our Dec-2016 price target to HK$15.20 (from Revenue growth (%) 35.1% 2.9% 9.9% 13.7% HK$16.00), to reflect our new EPS estimates. Our price target is based on 6.5x 2016E P/E, which is the historical average of the EBITDA (LC) 15,094 13,647 14,840 16,669 mid-cap developers. EBITDA margin (%) 26.9% 23.6% 23.4% 23.1% Tax rate (%) 24.9% 25.2% 25.2% 25.2% Core net profit (LC) 7,531 6,005 6,771 7,172 Core EPS (LC) 2.17 1.74 1.96 2.07 EPS growth (%) 14.0% -20.2% 12.8% 5.9% GAV breakdown DPS (HK$) 0.90 0.70 0.74 0.80 BVPS (LC) 13.53 14.50 18.22 19.63 Others Operating cash flow (LC mn) (11,735) 13,956 6,497 8,860 6% Free cash flow (LC mn) (12,737) (2,827) (4,547) (594) IP Interest cover (X) 62.75 62.14 105.72 138.72 14% Net margin (%) 13.4% 10.4% 10.7% 9.9% Sales/assets (X) 0.28 0.25 0.25 0.27 Net debt/equity (%) 81.2% 86.5% 81.5% 86.7% Net debt/total equity (%) 58.6% 58.1% 57.6% 60.9% ROE (%) 17.0% 12.4% 12.0% 10.6% Dev Key model assumptions FY16E Props Residential ASP growth 0-15% 80% WACC 11.4% Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Sensitivity analysis NAV EPS JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates Senstivity to Dec-16 FY16E Core EPS FY16E FY17E 5% chg in residential ASP 7% 5% JPMe old 2.10 2.22 1% chg in WACC 3% n/a JPMe new 1.96 2.07 % chg -7% -7% Consensus 2.51 2.73 Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Comparative metrics CMP Mkt Cap P/E NAV discount P/BV YTD LC US$Mn FY16E FY17E % FY16E FY17E Stock perf. Evergrande Real Estate 6.03 10,628 11.3 9.0 FY16E58% 1.2 1.1 -12% China Overseas Land Investment 24.55 31,197 7.6 6.9 -21% 1.1 1.0 -10% China Resources Land 20.05 17,909 8.6 7.5 -49% 1.1 1.0 -11% China Vanke - H shares 19.00 27,030 7.9 6.4 NA 1.5 1.4 -17% China Jinmao 2.07 2,847 5.4 6.5 -49% 0.4 0.4 -22% Sino-Ocean Land 3.62 3,505 6.1 5.1 -70% 0.5 0.5 -27% Shui On Land 2.07 2,141 12.9 8.5 -55% 0.4 0.4 -3% Shimao Properties 11.98 5,361 5.1 4.9 -36% 0.6 0.5 -13% Guangzhou R&F 11.12 4,618 4.8 4.5 17% 0.7 0.6 16% Agile Property 4.26 2,150 4.9 4.9 -51% 0.3 0.3 -1% KWG Property 5.11 1,973 3.4 3.0 -50% 0.5 0.5 -11% Longfor Properties 10.82 8,135 6.2 5.9 -56% 0.9 0.8 -6% Country Garden 3.07 8,861 6.1 3.7 -35% 0.8 0.7 -3% Joy City 1.19 2,182 12.9 8.6 -68% 0.5 0.5 1% Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Prices are as of 29 March 2016. 2 Ryan Li, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research (852) 2800-8529 31 March 2016 [email protected] Table 1: Shimao - Summary of land acquisitions since 2015 Date of Project City Region Stake Total GFA Attri.
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