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Shenzhen Investment (604 Equities Hong Kong/China Initial Coverage Company Report Shenzhen Investment (604 HK) 3 August 2016 HK & China / Property Uprising with Shenzhen Headquartered in Shenzhen and having listed on HKEx for over 19 BUY years, SZI is the largest property developer operated under the Share Target administration of Shenzhen SASAC. Owning 12 projects in Upside Shenzhen and 17 in other cities covering industrial, commercial Price Price and residential estates, SZI’s business is mainly divided into three HK$3.21 HK$5.05 57.32% components: property development, property leasing and operating, property management. (as of 1 August 2016) Unparalleled advantage in land acquisition. Benefiting from being the largest exchange-listed real estate developer under August Zhan Shenzhen SASAC, SZI has been enjoying the surging Shenzhen (852) 2106 8172 market ever since the corporate shifted its prime focus back to [email protected] Shenzhen in 2012. In FY15, SZI recorded 7.02 million sq m net sales area in Shenzhen, contributing for 57% of its total FY15 52 Range (HK$) 2.4-3.72 contracted sales, and the ASP for Shenzhen area was Rmb52,598/sq m compared with nationwide Rmb16,857/sq m. In DVD yield % 5.03 FY15, the gross profit margin for Shenzhen projects stood at 49.6% compared with 39.8% for other tier-1 cities and 10.5% for Latest Key Data tier-2 cities and under. FF no of shares (m) -H share 2,898 Solid yet ambitious financial position. With SZI’s further FF (%) -H share 39.24 issuance of domestic corporate bonds (approved quota of FF market cap (HK$ m) 9,302 Rmb20bn, around 45% was issued by the end of FY15) and new 12M daily turnover (HK$ m) 43.20 capital shares, we expect its cost of borrowing to further decline to 12M volatility (%) 47.92 below 4.5% in FY16E and 4.2% in FY18E. Meanwhile, its net 12M Hi/Lo (HK$) 2.4-3.72 PEG FY15-18E (x) 0.09 gearing ratio kept declining correspondingly from 79.9% in FY14 to RoAE FY16E (%) 10.0% 36.5% in FY15 and is expected to drop further to 12.0% in FY16E. P/B FY16E (x) 0.62 Strong contracted sales in FY16-18E. With the assumption that Net debt/equity FY16E (%) 12.1 Shenzhen’s housing price will keep increasing, we expect the ASP for SZI will remain strong in the next three years, coming in at Performance (%) Rmb23238/sq m, Rmb27168/sq m and Rmb29922/sq m respectively; and the booked sales will enjoy a 27.8% CAGR, at HK$20708m, 1M YTD 12M Absolute 2.9 (12.4) (12.4) HK$25279m and HK$28679m in FY16-FY18E accordingly. Relative to HSCEI (0.3) (5.5) 6.8 Initiation with Buy, target price at HK$5.05. Our valuation is the sum of the NAV from both the development properties and investment properties, following by a deduction of the 2016E Major Shareholders (%) outstanding debts (HK$5453m). We then apply a 60% discount to Shumyip Holdings 30.8 this NAV estimate and divided total amount of shares outstanding Free float 39.24 (7350 mn) to arrive at a target price of HK$5.05, suggesting a potential upside of 57.32%. We initiate coverage of this company Price Chart with a Buy rating. (HK$) Turnover (HK$ m) Investment Summary Shenzhen Investment HSI FY-end Dec 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 5.00 160 4.50 140 Turnover (HK$ m) 13,827 18,428 21,843 30,398 343,44 4.00 120 Growth (%) 41.4 33.3 18.5 39.2 13.0 3.50 3.00 100 Net Profit (HK$ m) 3,506 3,087 3,706 4,475 4,889 2.50 80 Growth (%) 13.0 (11.9) 20.0 20.8 9.2 2.00 60 1.50 EPS (HK$) 0.54 0.29 0.39 0.47 0.44 40 1.00 Growth (%) (8.3) (45.0) 32.7 19.7 (5.7) 0.50 20 PER (x) 4.16 10.71 8.08 6.75 7.15 0.00 0 P/B (x) 0.49 0.60 0.62 0.69 0.63 EV/EBITDA (x) 17.76 11.03 5.92 3.77 2.83 DPS (Rmb) 0.16 0.16 0.25 0.30 0.29 27/07/2015 27/08/2015 27/09/2015 27/10/2015 27/11/2015 27/12/2015 27/01/2016 27/02/2016 27/03/2016 27/04/2016 27/05/2016 27/06/2016 27/07/2016 Yield (%) 5.1 5.1 8.0 9.5 9.0 Sources: Bloomberg, CER estimates Sources: Company data, CER estimates China Everbright Research Limited Please read the analysts and company disclosure and the disclaimer in the last page HK & CHINA / PROPERTY Company Overview Background We found Shenzhen Investment (“SZI”) (0604 HK) as a mid-cap property company possessing the following noteworthy characteristics: 1) Clean cash flow featuring low net gearing ratio; 2) sufficient amount of land banks in top-tier cities accumulated during the past couple years to guarantee future growth potential; 3) strong asset injection pipelines from parental holding companies and compelling business relationship with local SASAC. Headquartered in Shenzhen and having listed on HKEx for over 19 years, SZI is the largest property developer operating under the administration of SASAC. Owning 12 projects in Shenzhen and 17 in other cities covering industrial, commercial and residential estates, SZI’s business is mainly divided into three components. 1) Property development (approximately HK$15,057m, representing 81.7% of FY16E revenue): over 30 years of trackable property development and sales history in Shenzhen, including landmark complexes such as Terra Golden Valley, comprising three main components: industrial, residential and commercial properties; 2) Property leasing and operating (approximately HK$789m, representing 4.3% of FY16E revenue ): over 900,000 sq m of properties under leasing, of which 90% are located in downtown Shenzhen area, and the leasing and operating of asset-light projects featuring the new “development-sales-holding” strategy of the management will be the fastest-growing driver of the company in the next couple years; and 3) Property management and hotels (approximately HK$1,369m, representing 7.4% of FY16E revenue ): holding three high-quality property management companies in China and as of end-December 2015, total area under SZI’s management exceeded 40 million sq m. In terms of scale and its reputation, SZI is industry leading in the sector. Figure 1: SZI corporate structure ShumShum Yip Yip Holdings Holdings Public Investors CompanyCompany Limited Limited and Others* 60.68% 39.32% Shum Yip Pengji Holdings Co., Ltd. Road King Infrastructure Limited (Stock Code: 1098.HK) Shum Yip Terra (Holdings) Co., Ltd. Shum Yip Southern Land (Holdings) Co., Ltd. Shum Yip Land Co., Ltd. Coasted Greenland Limited Shum Yip East China Property (Stock Code: 1124.HK) Development Co., Ltd. Shum Yip Taifu Logistics Group Holdings Co., Ltd. Shenzhen Nongke Holdings Co., Ltd. Principal Subsidiaries Xin Wang Industry Development (Shenzhen) Ltd. Principal Associates Source: Company data *Including approximately 0.08% interests held by existing directors China Everbright Research Limited Please read the analysts and company disclosure and the disclaimer in the last page 2 HK & CHINA / PROPERTY Figure 2: SZI revenue breakdown FY2016E Manufacture Other 2.3% Property 4.2% Investment 4.3% Property Mangement 7.4% Property Development 81.7% Sources: Company data, CER estimates China Everbright Research Limited Please read the analysts and company disclosure and the disclaimer in the last page 3 HK & CHINA / PROPERTY Competitive Strengths Unparalleled advantage in land acquisition comparing to local peers In December 2015, SZI acquired Huangbeiling project from Benefiting from being the largest exchange-listed real estate developer under Shenzhen SASAC, SZI has been enjoying the surging Shenzhen market ever since the corporate shifts its prime focus back to Shenzhen in 2012. As we witnessed an over 59.8% YoY ASP upwind in Shenzhen housing market (Rmb51,155 per sq m as of 8 May), the corporate will continue to outperform its peers in the Shenzhen market for its unparalleled advantage in land acquisition. SZI gains steady yet quality asset injection from its parent, Shum Yip Hldg. Unlike most of the private developers in Shenzhen who struggle for expensive and time-consuming land purchasing through open auctions and tendering or urbane redevelopment programs, SZI has been enjoying asset injections from its parent, averaging at one property package per year since 2012. Major asset injections in the past three years include: For commercial properties, Xinming China demonstrated that it is capable of developing large-scale, integrated commercial complexes that serve as a one-stop shopping centre for consumers. Examples are Xinming International Household Products Mall and Wenshang Times • Red Star Macalline Household Products Market. These commercial complexes focus on specialized type of goods and services (such as household goods). 1) Shumyip Dongling at a total consideration of Rmb1.91bn, at 95% stake and taking up net debt of Rmb2.00bn. The Huangbeiling project will create total attributable GFA of 238,000 sq m at an average land premium of Rmb16,428/sq m. 2) In May 2014, SZI acquired Shumyip Zhongcheng project at a total consideration of Rmb5.59bn and net debt of Rmb2.44bn, at 100% stake and funded by new share issuance of 1.06 billion shares at 21.0% of market premium (HK$3.28 per share). The project contributed 385,000 sq m attributable GFA at an average cost of Rmb20,857/sq m. 3) In January 2013, SZI acquired Shumyip Upperhills project at a total consideration of Rmb4.15bn and net debt of Rmb4.82bn, at 100% stake and funded by new share issuance of 1.40 billion shares at 9.1% of market premium (HK$3.67 per share).
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