China / Hong Kong Industry Focus China Property Sector Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 19 Jul 2018 1H18 results preview: Interim results likely to serve as positive catalysts HSI: 28,117 Most developers likely to post double-digit core ANALYST earnings growth; high overall dividend yield but not Danielle WANG CFA, +852 2820 4915 expecting any surprises
[email protected] Ken HE CFA, +86 21 6888 3375 Expect gearing to be higher than end-2017, and funding
[email protected] cost to be higher as well Carol WU +852 2863 8841 Most are likely to maintain their presales targets except
[email protected] Jason LAM +852 2971 1773 for China Jinmao (817 HK) and Shui On Land (272 HK)
[email protected] Prefer Shimao (813 HK), Evergrande (3333 HK), and Country Garden (2007 HK) Top picks Expect decent core earnings growth with strong growth in top line, but higher net debt ratio and funding costs. Overall, most T arget Mk t F Y19F of the developers are likely to enjoy double-digit growth in core Price Price Rec Cap PE earnings. Evergrande (3333 HK), Country Garden (2007 HK), HK$ HK$ US$bn x Aoyuan (3383 HK), CIFI (884 HK), Longfor (960 HK), CR Land Country Garden (1109 HK), KWG (1813 HK), and GZ R&F (2777 HK) are likely to 12.52 20.65 BUY 34.8 4.0 (2007 HK) report over 30% y-o-y growth in core earnings with stable gross Evergrande margins. Although some investors are expecting new revenue 20.40 40.51 BUY 34.4 4.4 booking method under IFRS 15 starting from 2018 will (3333 HK) Shimao Property accelerate developers’ revenue book and in turn help earning 21.15 28.77 BUY 9.2 5.5 growth, our discussions with developers indicate that most of (813 HK) them expect limited impact on their earnings.