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Yuzhou Properties Co Property Development│Hong Kong│January 15, 2018 Company Note Insert Insert Hong Kong Yuzhou Properties Co Ltd ADD (no change) M&As will drive share price in 2018F Consensus ratings*: Buy 12 Hold 1 Sell 0 ■ Yuzhou announced it is acquiring some of Coastal Greenland's core properties for Current price: HK$4.89 Rmb3.8bn. Its total saleable resources will rise to Rmb280bn after the acquisition. Target price: HK$6.60 ■ Deal's key properties are located in Beijing, Tianjin, Shenyang and Wuhan. Tianjin project accounts for Rmb83bn of sales value. Previous target: HK$6.00 ■ FY18F sales target at Rmb60bn, +50% vs. FY17. Faster-than-expected sales growth Up/downside: 35.0% and potential M&As are the catalysts to share price, in our view. CIMB / Consensus: 10.6% ■ 10% NAV accretion, lifting TP to HK$6.6. Maintain Add. Reuters: 1628.HK Acquiring Coastal Greenland’s core properties for Rmb3.8bn Bloomberg: 1628 HK Yuzhou after market closed today announced it is acquiring some of Coastal Greenland's Market cap: US$2,616m (1124 HK, Not rated) core properties for a total consideration of Rmb3.8bn. Management HK$20,465m held a conference call to explain the details of the deal and provide some business Average daily turnover: US$6.53m updates to investors. The deal is expected to be completed by May 2018, subject to HK$50.25m approval from Coastal Greenland’s shareholders, according to management. Current shares o/s: 3,245m Saleable resource to increase from Rmb240bn to Rmb280bn Free float: 31.8% The properties to be acquired are located in Beijing, Tianjin, Shenyang and Wuhan, with *Source: Bloomberg combined attributable GFA of 3.1m sq m and estimated sales value of Rmb99bn (gross) or Rmb40bn (attributable), according to management. After the acquisition, Yuzhou’s Key changes in this note land bank will increased by 25% to 15m sq m and its attributable saleable resource rise FY17F EPS increased by 8%. from Rmb240bn to Rmb280bn. Management also estimate the gross/net margin post FY18F EPS increased by 16%. acquisition will be around 35%/15%, both in line with Yuzhou’s current levels. FY19F EPS increased by 20%. Tianjin project contributes 85% to sales value of target assets Price Close Relative to HSI (RHS) Among the assets to be acquired, the Tianjin project (to be a 30:70 JV between Yuzhou and Vanke once the deal completes) accounts for 85% of the estimated sales value or 5.20 156 Rmb83bn. The Shenyang project (to be 100% owned), covering 1.9m sq m, accounts for 4.20 130 Rmb12bn. The Beijing office project, located at a premium site i.e. between Beijing's 2nd 3.20 105 and 3rd Ring Roads, offers 39k sq m GFA for rental. Other projects in Wuhan, Shenyang 2.20 79 600 and Foshan are ready for presale soon with total sales value of Rmb3bn. 400 200 No material impact to net gearing Vol m Vol The consideration of Rmb3.8bn is deduced from gross asset value of Rmb5bn, less the Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 net debt of Rmb1.2bn. Management expects no material impact to Yuzhou’s net gearing, Source: Bloomberg as the acquisition is within its FY18 land acquisition budget and the consideration is relatively small comparing to its balance sheet. Price performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) 25.7 15.9 71 FY18F sales target: Rmb60bn, +50% vs. FY17 Relative (%) 17.1 5.8 34.4 Yuzhou's Chairman sets the company's FY18F contracted sales target at Rmb60bn, up 50% vs. FY17. To recall, Yuzhou’s contracted sales jumped 80% to Rmb40bn in FY17. Major shareholders % held Management aims to grow the company's contracted sales to Rmb120bn by FY20F. Lam Lung On (chairman) 68.3 Expect more M&As to come in FY18F We believe this acquisition will alleviate some investor concerns about Yuzhou’s limited Insert saleable resources. We expect Yuzhou will crystallise more M&A opportunities in FY18F, given management’s good connection with potential sellers and the continuing consolidation trend in the property sector. Maintain Add, Raise TP to HK$6.6 We revise up our FY17-19F EPS by 8-20% to factor in this acquisition and FY17's sales figures. We estimate the NAV accretion of the acquisition will be around 10%, lifting our FY18 NAV estimate to HK$11. Our TP, based on 40% discount to NAV, rises to HK$6.6. Key potential catalysts are progress in other M&As and faster-than-expected sales growth in FY18F. Key risks: further tightening policies, slowdown in China economy. Analyst(s) Financial Summary Dec-15A Dec-16A Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F Total Net Revenues (Rmbm) 10,376 13,672 19,161 26,759 33,324 Operating EBITDA (Rmbm) 3,114 4,118 5,652 7,341 8,774 Net Profit (Rmbm) 1,657 2,131 2,896 3,927 4,967 Core EPS (Rmb) 0.44 0.54 0.72 0.94 1.19 Core EPS Growth 48.5% 21.8% 34.9% 29.6% 26.5% FD Core P/E (x) 9.06 7.53 5.58 4.30 3.40 DPS (Rmb) 0.15 0.19 0.28 0.32 0.38 Dividend Yield 3.74% 4.69% 6.86% 8.02% 9.36% Siu Fung LUNG, CFA EV/EBITDA (x) 7.67 6.02 4.60 3.42 2.56 P/FCFE (x) 6.71 3.55 18.05 3.35 2.67 T (852) 2539 1327 Net Gearing 79.4% 71.7% 47.7% 30.6% 13.7% E [email protected] P/BV (x) 1.60 1.44 0.98 0.81 0.66 Raymond CHENG, CFA ROE 18.2% 20.2% 20.8% 20.6% 21.4% T (852) 2539 1324 % Change In Core EPS Estimates 7.8% 16.2% 19.6% E [email protected] CIMB/consensus EPS (x) 1.06 1.06 1.09 SOURCE: COMPANY DATA, CIMB FORECASTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN THE Powered by the UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CIMB SECURITIES (USA), INC. AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH. EFA Platform Property Development│Hong Kong│Yuzhou Properties Co Ltd│January 15, 2018 Figure 1: Properties to be acquired Attributable sales value Gross sales value Attributable GFA (k sqm) (Rmb bn) (Rmb bn) Beijing office project 39 n.a. n.a. Tianjin Beicang Town Project 996 25 83 Shenyang Sujiatun Project 1,880 12 12 Others 231 3 4 Total 3,146 40 99 SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY Figure 2: Yuzhou’s NAV breakdown Per share End-2018F Valuation methodology Value (Rmb m) (Rmb) Development properties DCF at 11% WACC, ASP flat in FY17-19F 42,827 10.2 Investment properties Income capitalisation at cap rate of 9% 7,792 1.9 Gross Asset Value (GAV) 50,620 12.1 Net debt (9,123) (2.2) Net Asset Value (NAV) 41,497 9.9 NAV (HK$) 11.0 Targeted discount to NAV (%) 40% TP (HK$) 6.6 SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY Figure 3: Earnings revision HK$m 2017F 2018F 2019F Old New %chg Old New %chg Old New %chg Revenue 17,692 19,161 8% 23,182 26,759 15% 30,895 33,324 8% Operating profit 5,222 5,652 8% 6,182 7,341 19% 7,160 8,774 23% Pretax profit 5,376 5,633 5% 6,372 7,242 14% 7,307 8,763 20% Core net profit 2,687 2,896 8% 3,379 3,927 16% 4,152 4,967 20% Reported net profit 2,687 2,896 8% 3,379 3,927 16% 4,152 4,967 20% Core EPS 0.99 1.03 4% 1.09 1.23 12% 1.24 1.45 16% Reported EPS 0.67 0.72 8% 0.81 0.94 16% 0.99 1.19 20% SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY Figure 4: NAV and TP changes Old New change % NAV (HK$) 10.0 11.0 10.0% Discount to NAV (%) 40% 40% no changes TP (HK$) 6.0 6.6 10.0% SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY 2 Property Development│Hong Kong│Yuzhou Properties Co Ltd│January 15, 2018 Figure 5: Peer comparisons Share Disc. to price TP Mkt cap NAV/sh NAV Upside P/E (x) P/BV(x) Yield (%) Net Gearing (%) Ticker (HK$) (HK$) Rating (US$ m) (HK$) (%) (%) 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2016 2017F 2018F 2016 2017F 2018F 2016 2017F 2018F COLI 688 HK 28.50 31.50 ADD 41,381 35.0 19 11 10.4 8.8 7.4 6.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 2.5 3.0 3.4 7 25 26 CR Land 1109 HK 25.75 28.00 ADD 23,565 35.0 26 9 11.5 9.7 8.3 7.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.7 3.1 3.6 24 30 31 China Vanke - A* 000002 CH 37.09 28.50 HOLD 59,999 28.5 (30) (23) 18.7 14.6 11.7 9.7 3.6 3.1 2.6 2.1 2.7 3.4 12 27 27 China Vanke - H 2202 HK 38.65 32.39 ADD 59,918 32.4 (19) (16) 16.1 12.5 10.1 8.3 3.1 2.6 2.2 2.5 3.2 4.0 12 27 27 CIFI 884 HK 5.95 5.25 ADD 5,950 7.5 21 (12) 11.6 9.0 7.3 5.9 2.2 1.8 1.4 3.0 3.8 4.5 50 48 55 Country Garden 2007 HK 17.26 8.00 REDUCE 49,775 10.0 (73) (54) 32.0 20.6 14.6 11.9 4.5 3.8 3.2 1.2 1.7 2.3 49 53 47 Evergrande 3333 HK 27.50 32.00 HOLD 48,390 32.0 14 16 87.9 9.3 6.7 5.9 7.0 4.1 3.0 - 5.9 7.3 432 232 144 Greentown 3900 HK 12.66 7.50 REDUCE 3,388 12.5 (1) (41) 13.6 14.0 13.8 14.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.8 1.8 84 78 79 Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 20.35 22.40 ADD 8,485 32.0 36 10 8.6 6.3 5.0 4.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 5.4 6.5 7.6 174 204 172 KWG 1813 HK 11.14 10.50 ADD 4,573 15.0 26 (6) 9.5 7.3 5.9 4.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 4.3 5.3 6.3 67 69 63 Longfor 960 HK 22.45 27.90 ADD 17,669 31.0 28 24 14.0 11.4 9.4 8.0 1.7 1.6 1.4 2.5 3.1 3.7 54 57 55 Shimao Prop 813 HK 20.80 22.40 ADD 9,567 32.0 35 8 9.8 8.4 7.0 6.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 3.6 3.9 4.7 51 56 56 Sino-Ocean 3377 HK 6.13 5.40 HOLD 6,091 9.0 32 (12) 15.1 10.9 8.3 7.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 3.2 5.0 5.5 44 60 63 SOHO China 410 HK 4.70 3.85 REDUCE 3,290 5.5 15 (18) NA 107.2 71.9 50.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 13.9 8.9 10.3 32 36 29 Sunac 1918 HK 34.10 18.40 REDUCE 20,398 23.0 (48) (46) 53.4 67.3 16.9 12.9 4.7 4.1 3.3 0.8 0.2 1.2 208 452 383 Yuzhou 1628 HK 4.89 6.60 ADD 2,616 11.0 56 35 7.5 5.6 4.3 3.4 1.4 1.0 0.8 4.7 6.7 7.7 72 48 31 Big Bay plays Agile 3383 HK 13.16 16.80 ADD 7,149 21.0 37 28 15.5 8.2 6.2 4.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 3.6 5.9 6.9 49 54 49 China Aoyuan 3883 HK 5.78 7.00 ADD 2,053 10.0 42 21 13.5 9.0 6.5 5.0 1.5 1.2 1.0 3.0 4.5 6.3 51 66 55 Logan Property 3380 HK 8.50 10.50 ADD 6,228 15.0 43 24 12.5 9.3 6.9 5.2 2.0 1.6 1.3 3.2 3.1 4.4 72 63 56 SZ Investment 604 HK 3.38 3.60 HOLD 3,543 7.2 53 7 8.0 5.2 8.8 7.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 5.8 4.2 3.9 21 32 41 Times Property 1233 HK 8.49 13.30 ADD 2,006 19.0 55 57 6.7 5.4 4.3 3.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 4.5 5.2 6.7 55 71 62 BBA average 46 27 11.2 7.4 6.5 5.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 4.0
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