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MARKETING MATERIAL RUSSIAN EQUITY RESEARCH: MEDIA O2 TV BUY 114% INITIATION OF COVERAGE Upside 15 April 2008 S Initiation of coverage of cable TV channel We are initiating coverage of O2 TV channel. Existing shareholders are ready to sell about 25% of the asset, with the channel’s total equity value at USD 40.0mn. Based on our DCF valuation and peer group comparison, we derive a fair value of USD 85.5mn, implying 114% potential upside. Analyst: Sergey Vasin S A play on Russia’s rapidly growing media market Junior Analyst: Kirill Klokov Russia’s advertising market reached USD 8.6bn in 2007, making it the 6th largest market in +7.495.933.33.16 [email protected] Europe, and up from the 20th in 2000. We believe the market has potential to grow much further given that Russia’s media market was only USD 60.6 per capita in 2007, which Sales: compares to USD 360.6 per capita in the UK and USD 251.9 per capita in Germany. London +44.020.7439.68.81 Moscow +7.495.933.33.02 S TV advertising should remain the main driver of Russian media market Rating BUY TV accounts for about 49% of the total Russian media market. Despite constant growth in Fair Value, USD 000 85,531 TV advertisement prices, TV remains the cheapest way to advertise in terms of Cost per Current Enterprise Value, USD 000 44,986 Thousand Contacts (CPT). In 2007 CPT on TV equaled USD 2.0 whereas on Radio it was Net debt, USD 000 4,986 USD 6.2. Given Russia’s booming economy we expect the demand for TV advertisements Current Equity Value, USD 000 40,000 to grow, pushing prices up, and the segment to remain the main driver of Russia’s media Number of Shares, 000 1,000 market. S O2 TV is a play on the growing demand for niche Cost of Equity, % 18,7 channels Cost of Debt (after tax), % 7.2 % of Debt 11.1% TV majors have started to lose their audience shares to smaller channels with specific % of Equity 88.9% content and high focus on customer needs. In 2005-2007 the top 6 Russian channels lost WACC, % 17.4 7ppts to small niche channels such as O2 TV. Niche channels provide customers with programming for specific interests, which naturally benefits advertisers seeking to reach customer groups with particular interests. S Different valuation scenarios suggest larger upside potential We perform different valuation scenarios for O2 TV based on assumptions of TV ratings and media inflation. We also carry out a peer group comparison based on recent M&A deals between TV channels across Russia. Our optimistic scenario suggests a fair value of USD 181.2mn compared to the base case scenario valuation of only USD 85.5mn. We note however that we consider the base case more appropriate taking into account O2 TV’s current size and risks associated with the company’s development. Summary Valuation and Financials Revenues, USD 000 EBITDA, USD 000 EBITDA margin, % Net Income, USD 000 P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Revenues (x) 2007E 2,792 -833 n/a -1,379 n/a n/a 15.9 2008E 12,230 1,403 11% 820 48.8 31.5 3.6 2009E 25,789 7,050 27% 5,350 7.5 6.3 1.7 2010E 44,953 15,151 34% 11,503 3.5 2.9 1.0 FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY This report must be read with the disclaimer, disclosure and analyst certifications on the last page Table of Contents Investment case..............................................................................................................................................................................3 Risks ...............................................................................................................................................................................................4 Advertising market in Russia ..........................................................................................................................................................4 O2 TV............................................................................................................................................................................................10 Company network .....................................................................................................................................................................10 TV advertisements and GRP inventory.....................................................................................................................................11 Financial statements .....................................................................................................................................................................12 Recent results – 2007 RAS .......................................................................................................................................................12 Profit and loss account outlook .................................................................................................................................................13 Cash flow and balance sheet ....................................................................................................................................................17 Valuation .......................................................................................................................................................................................18 DCF assumptions......................................................................................................................................................................18 Valuation scenarios ...................................................................................................................................................................19 Peer group valuation .................................................................................................................................................................22 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................................................................24 General industry terms and abbreviations.................................................................................................................................24 15 April 2008 Investment case We are initiating coverage of O2 TV channel, a 24/7 cable-based channel with content focused on young people aged 15-35. The channel reaches 315 cities and towns across Russia. Existing shareholders are ready to sell about 25% of the asset. The total equity value of the channel is USD 40.0mn. Our DCF analysis suggests a fair value of USD 85.5mn, implying 114% potential upside. The company is aiming to become a pan-Russia channel with ratings and coverage comparable with Russia’s top 20 channels. By the end of 2008, the company expects to be included in TNS Gallup Media’s federal panel, which should allow the company to increase the liquidity of its GRP (Gross Rating Point) inventory and, as a result, increase revenues more than 4.5 times in 2008. We note however that this process is incomplete and although we can not guarantee the inclusion of the company, the possibility remains high.1 O2 TV is a direct play on Russia’s booming advertising market. The market grew to USD 8.6bn in 2007 according to the Association of Communication Agencies (AKAR), making it the 6th largest market in Europe and up from the 20th largest in 2000. We expect the market to grow much further given that Russia’s media market was only USD 60.6 per capita in 2007, which compares to USD 360.6 per capita in the UK and USD 251.9 per capita in Germany. TV accounts for about 49% of the total Russian media market. Despite recent sharp growth in prices, TV remains the cheapest method of advertising in terms of Cost per Thousand Contacts (CPT). In 2007 CPT on TV equaled USD 2.0 whereas on Radio it was USD 6.2. In our opinion TV should remain the main factor in Russia’s media market as given Russia’s booming economy, we expect demand for TV advertising should continue to grow pushing advertising prices up. TV majors have started to lose their audience shares in favor of small channels with specific content and high focus on customer needs. In 2005-2007 the top 6 Russian channels lost 7ppts to smaller niche channels such as O2 TV. Niche channels provide customers with programming for specific interests and benefit advertisers seeking to reach particular customer groups. We have carried out different valuation scenarios for O2 TV based on assumptions of TV ratings and media inflation. We have also performed a peer group valuation based on recent M&A deals between TV channels across Russia. The optimistic scenario suggests a fair value of USD 180mn whereas the base case scenario implies only USD 85mn. We note however that we consider the base case as more appropriate taking into account O2 TV’s current size and the risks associated with the company’s development. 1 TNS Gallup Media provides TV channels with measurements of audience shares and thus raises the profile of a TV channel among large advertisers. As a result more advertisers can trust their budgets to TV channels whose audience shares are approved by TNS Gallup Media. In order to be included into TNS Gallup Media’s federal panel O2 TV needs to increase its technical coverage and TV ratings to the levels of the top 20 channels. 3 | 15 April 2008 Risks The company has a very poor level of disclosure of financial results. The 2007 figures were the first to be audited, and in our model we also use management estimates which may not be accurate. Note that we adjust our WACC calculation to reflect these
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