A POPULATION PROJECTION MODEL FOR ETHNIC GROUPS: SPECIFICATION FOR A MULTI-COUNTRY, MULTI-ZONE AND MULTI-GROUP MODEL FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM Paper presented at the International Conference on Effects of Migration on Population Structures in Europe, Vienna, 1-2 December 2008, organized by the Vienna Institute for Demography and held at the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Theatersaal, Sonnenfelsgasse 19, 1010 Vienna, Austria Philip Rees, Pia Wohland, Paul Norman and Peter Boden School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom Contact Phil Rees: Email
[email protected], Tel +44 (0)113 343 3341 Version 0.6, 27 November 2008 Acknowledgment: This paper is part of a research project funded by ESRC Research Award RES- 165-25-0032 (1/10/07 to 30/9/09) What Happens When International Migrants Settle? Ethnic Group Population Trends and Projections for UK Local Areas. (http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/projects/migrants/) ABSTRACT As part of a project entitled What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas (ESRC Award RES-165-25-0032), a team at the University of Leeds is building a projection model that combines three features that have been used separately in previous work: a multi-zone structure that recognizes flows between zones, a hierarchical structure (country-zone within country) that recognizes discontinuities in both migration flows and ethnic group definitions between countries and interactions between ethnic groups in the fertility/birth process. This paper describes the model specification and reports on progress towards full specification and implementation.