Data Documentation Electricity Sector Data for Policy-Relevant Modeling
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72 Data Documentation Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 2014 Electricity Sector Data for Policy-Relevant Modeling Data Documentation and Applications to the German and European Electricity Markets Jonas Egerer, Clemens Gerbaulet, Richard Ihlenburg, Friedrich Kunz, Benjamin Reinhard, Christian von Hirschhausen, Alexander Weber, Jens Weibezahn IMPRESSUM © DIW Berlin, 2014 DIW Berlin Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Mohrenstr. 58 10117 Berlin Tel. +49 (30) 897 89-0 Fax +49 (30) 897 89-200 www.diw.de ISSN 1861-1532 All rights reserved. Reproduction and distribution in any form, also in parts, requires the express written permission of DIW Berlin. Data Documentation 72 Jonas Egerer1234, Clemens Gerbaulet23, Richard Ihlenburg2, Friedrich Kunz3, Benjamin Reinhard2, Christian von Hirschhausen23, Alexander Weber2, Jens Weibezahn2 Electricity Sector Data for Policy-Relevant Modeling: Data Documentation and Applications to the German and European Electricity Markets Berlin, March 2014 1 Corresponding author: [email protected], phone +49 30 897 89-674, fax +49 30 897 89-113. 2 Technische Universität Berlin, Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy (WIP), Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin. 3 DIW Berlin, Department of Energy, Transportation, Environment, Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin. 4 The preparation of this document was facilitated by the participation of one or more of the authors in third party funded projects, mainly the support of the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) to TU Berlin in the project Ener- gyEFFAIR (Effiziente und gerechte Allokation der Produktion erneuerbarer Energien auf nationaler Ebene), the support of the Mercator foundation to DIW Berlin in the MASMIE project (Modellgestützte Analysen für die Strommarktgestaltung zur Integration erneuerbarer Energien im Rahmen der Energiewende), and the support of the Mercator foundation to TU Berlin in the project EE-Netze; the Data Documentation has also benefitted from the participation of TU Berlin in the EU-FP7 project “E-Highways” and the exchange with other project partners therein. Intermediate presentations of the Data Docu- mentation were given at various project workshops during the last 18 months. We thank Florian Leuthold and Hannes Weigt for having co-kickstarted the ELelectricty MODel ELMOD back at TU Dresden in 2004, and Jan Abrell for continuously pointing out remaining shortcomings of the model, as well as numerous research assistants all along the way; the usual disclaimer applies. Data Documentation 72 Executive Summary Executive Summary 1. Transparent and comprehensible numerical modeling can make a major contribution to the understanding of electricity markets and infrastructure needs, and is a critical element of any planning exercise as well as a requirement for public acceptance of any reforms. Yet one observes a rising discrepancy between, on the one hand, the in- creasing complexity of electricity sector models, and, on the other hand, the almost complete absence of easily accessible, high-quality, and transparent data used in these models. 2. Although the awareness of the data issue has improved over the last decade, the quality and availability of the data used in electricity sector models has not. Thus, the data provided by ENTSO-E on the European electricity sector, the so-called study model (STUM) is outdated, covers only few snapshots, and is not suited for model applictions; it is currently of no help in understanding, e.g. the results of the ten-year- network-development-plan (TYNDP). The same dilemma prevails at the national lev- el, though some progress has been made recently, e.g. in Germany. Great Britain rep- resents a very laudable exception from the rule, since detailed technical planning da- ta is publicly provided. 3. Two recent developments have brought some momentum in the data issue, that suggest the need for action: i) Industry, policymakers, other stakeholders, and the in- terested public have realized the importance of independent modeling and have be- come increasingly critical upon the underlying data quality; TSOs are opening up to the exchange of transparent data; ii) at the academic end, standards vis-à-vis the transparency and quality of data used in scientific publications have been significant- ly raised, and it is no longer acceptable to publish anything without releasing the data and the code used. The ethical codes of all scientific associations, in particular in eco- nomics, have set out strict rules for data and methodological transparency; this will soon also oblige the consulting sector and policymakers to adopt higher standards. 4. The objective of this Data Documentation is to advance the discussion of data issues by providing a full set of data used for electricity market and transmission network I Data Documentation 72 Executive Summary modeling, and to suggest similar action to academic research as well as the policy and business community. We provide a very detailed account of electricity genera- tion, load data, the high-voltage transmission infrastructure, and price data, both for the German and the European electricity systems in 2012, and 2011, respectively. 5. We also present applications of the extensive datasets to some real-world modeling issues, using the Electricity MODel ELMOD; ELMOD was initiatlly developed at TU Dresden and is now constantly developed since in the context of engineering- economic electricity market research by a variety of research teams. For Germany, we provide an estimate of hourly electricity prices in 2012, that traces the wholesale prices in a very detailed manner; ELMOD also contains a very high spatial resolution and allows, amongst others, the comparison of uniform, zonal, and noal pricing esti- mates. The application to Europe compares generation mix and trade flows between all European countries (including Switzerland and Norway) and, likewise, reaches a very high level of convergence between the model results and real flows. 6. The Data Documentation is meant as one step towards the use of better and more transparent data for electricity sector modeling, but it also highlights the need for continued work on data shortcomings, model improvments, and organizational inno- vation. Future work needs to focus on transmission and demand data, both at the European and the national level. Model enhancements, such as combined heat and power, or the (in-)flexibility of power plants, require additional modeling and data ef- forts. Some technical IT-challenges also need to be addressed, to translate existing model software into user-friendly software interfaces. 7. Even more challenging, though, is the translation of modeling results for use in the policy arena, and the establishment of clarity and consistency that provide real value to the business community and policymakers alike. To that end, the pressure on the electricity industry itself and the public policymakers to release data and secure higher transparency of sector planning needs to be maintained, both in the interest of producers and consumers in the sector, and of public acceptance. More work also needs to be done to integrate the modeling world and the policy world, and to estab- lish routines for interaction between the two levels. II Data Documentation 72 Content Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................... I 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background: The Importance of Good, Transparent Data ............................................ 1 1.2 Data Requirements for Electricity System Modeling ..................................................... 1 1.3 Absence of Coherent Public Data at European and Most Member State Level ............ 4 1.3.1 EU-level: absence of detailed, transparent data ................................................. 4 1.3.2 National level: the United Kingdom as the positive exception from the rule 5 1.4 A New Momentum and the Objectives of this Data Documentation ........................... 7 2 Germany ...................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Electricity Data ............................................................................................................... 9 2.1.1 Data sources ........................................................................................................ 9 2.1.2 Spatial electricity infrastructure data ................................................................ 11 2.1.2.1 High-voltage transmission network ..................................................... 11 2.1.2.2 Electrical load ....................................................................................... 16 2.1.2.3 Generation capacity ............................................................................. 20 2.1.2.4 Electricity sector data for Luxemburg .................................................. 31 2.1.3 Time dependent electricity data ....................................................................... 32 2.1.3.1 Generation cost .................................................................................... 32 2.1.3.2 Cross-border exchange ......................................................................... 35 2.1.3.3 Availability of generation capacity ....................................................... 38 2.2 Model Validation – Generation and