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Effects of Climate Change on Canada's Rev Fish Biol Fisheries (2014) 24:519–559 DOI 10.1007/s11160-014-9342-1 RESEARCH PAPER Effects of climate change on Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems: a summary of scientific knowledge Thomas A. Okey • Hussein M. Alidina • Veronica Lo • Sabine Jessen Received: 25 August 2013 / Accepted: 20 January 2014 / Published online: 22 February 2014 Ó Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014 Abstract The marine life of Canada’s Pacific marine geomorphology, climate, and oceanography, includ- ecosystems, adjacent to the province of British ing a dynamic oceanographic and ecological transition Columbia, may be relatively responsive to rapid zone formed by the divergence of the North Pacific oceanographic and environmental change associated Current into the Alaskan coastal current and the with global climate change due to uniquely evolved California Current, and by currents transporting warm plasticities and resiliencies as well as particular sen- tropical waters from the south. Despite long-term sitivities and vulnerabilities, given this dynamic warming in the region, sea surface temperatures in and highly textured natural setting. These marine Canada’s Pacific have been anomalously cool since ecosystems feature complex interfaces of coastal 2007 with La Nin˜a-type conditions prevailing as we enter a cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, possibly masking future warming. When warmer El T. A. Okey (&) Nin˜o conditions prevail, many southern species School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, invade, strongly impacting local species and reorga- PO Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada e-mail: [email protected] nizing biological communities. Acidification and deoxygenation are anomalously high in the region T. A. Okey due to the weakening ventilation of subsurface waters Ocean Integrity Research, 1128 Empress Avenue, resulting from increased stratification. A broad spec- Victoria, BC V8T 1P4, Canada trum of biological responses to these changes are H. M. Alidina expected. Non-climate anthropogenic stressors affect WWF-Canada, 409 Granville Street, Suite 1588, the capacity of biota to adapt to climate changes. It Vancouver, BC V6C 1T2, Canada will be challenging to forecast the responses of V. Lo Á S. Jessen particular species, and to map climate vulnerabilities Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society, 410-698 accurately enough to help prioritize and guide adap- Seymour Street, Vancouver, BC V6B 3K6, Canada tation planning. It will be more challenging to develop forecasts that account for indirect effects within V. Lo University of Bologna, Royal Netherlands Institute for biological communities and the intricate and appar- Sea Research, and Ghent University, Via S. Alberto 163, ently non-deterministic behaviours of highly complex 48123 Ravenna, Italy and variable marine ecosystems, such as those of Canada’s Pacific. We recommend and outline national S. Jessen Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, and regional climate assessments in Canada and TASC2 Suite 8800, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada adaptation planning and implementation including 123 520 Rev Fish Biol Fisheries (2014) 24:519–559 integrated coastal management and marine spatial assessments served as central or initial sources for planning and management. information specific to Canada’s Pacific marine eco- systems, including a series of edited compendiums of Keywords Climate change impacts Á work by Fisheries and Oceans Canada on the state of Acidification Á Deoxygenation Á Climate the physical, biological, and fishery resources of adaptation Á Cumulative impacts Á Global marine Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems (e.g. Irvine and hotspots Crawford 2013), summaries of that work in the form of State of the Oceans advisory reports (e.g. DFO 2013), and other key publications focused on climate change impacts in the region (BCME 2007; Beamish et al. Introduction 2009; Hutchings et al. 2012; Irvine and Crawford 2011; Johannessen and MacDonald 2009; Lucas et al. Increased emissions of greenhouse gasses since the 2007; McKinnell and Dagg 2010; Perry et al. 2007; industrial revolution, and particularly during the last Walker and Sydneysmith 2007). We also examined few decades, has caused a broad spectrum of physical, regional contributions to the 2010 Canadian Marine chemical, and biological changes in the world’s Status and Trends Report series (DFO 2010) focusing oceans (Brander 2010; Doney et al. 2012; Harley on Canada’s marine ecosystems of the Pacific north et al. 2006; Hobday et al. 2006; Poloczanska et al. coast and Hecate Strait (Cummins and Haigh 2010) 2007; Poloczanska et al. 2013) and many of these the Strait of Georgia (Ianson and Flostrand 2010) and changes are expected to accelerate (IPCC 2007; the West Coast of Vancouver Island (Johannessen and Solomon et al. 2007). We use the term climate change McCarter 2010). In terms of biological changes, our to refer to marine environmental changes relating to assessment focused on three of the four identified the emissions of fossil fuels including ocean acidifi- bioregions of Pacific marine area (sensu DFO 2009)— cation, ocean de-oxygenation, sea-level rise, and other the Northern Shelf, the Southern Shelf, and the Strait physical and chemical changes that are not climate per of Georgia—and less so on Canada’s offshore Pacific se. bioregion (Fig. 1). Planning for the effects of climate change in a There is a spectrum of modelling approaches in particular region or locality, including the develop- development for characterizing and forecasting the ment of adaptation strategies, requires knowledge effects of climate change on the ecosystems of this and about physical changes, potential impacts, and vul- surrounding regions. These include, but are not limited nerabilities on regional and local scales. The first step to, development of end-to-end marine and fishery to understanding these regional and local manifesta- ecosystem modelling (e.g. Kaplan et al. 2012; Kaplan tions of global climate change impacts is to undertake and Leonard 2012; Ruzicka et al. 2012; Steele 2012; detailed examinations of particular regions of interest. Steele et al. 2012), future variations of which may We conducted such an assessment for Canada’s include outputs of global climate models downscaled Pacific marine ecosystems (Okey et al. 2012), and and enhanced as regional ocean models (ROMS) (e.g. the present paper is a synopsis of our review of the Foreman et al. 2008, 2012) as well as potential current knowledge of observed and expected climate- integration of such models with fishery-ecosystem related physical, chemical, and biological changes in modelling approaches that include whole biological this region. The update of the second part of that communities (e.g. Ainsworth et al. 2011), bioclimatic work—a preliminary spatial mapping of climate envelope modelling (Cheung et al. in press, 2009, change vulnerability for Canada’s Pacific marine 2010, 2011), fisheries models (e.g. Agostini et al. areas is forthcoming (Okey et al. unpublished data). 2008), approaches that include social and economic We reviewed existing literature and information systems (e.g. McCay et al. 2011; Miller et al. 2010), about climate change impacts in Canada’s Pacific and other modelling initiatives and approaches (e.g. marine ecosystems, the broader Northeast Pacific, and King et al. 2011; Stock et al. 2011). Most modelling globally, in order to adequately characterize all the and analytical approaches applied to this region categories of change occurring in Canada’s Pacific benefit from broad international collaborations with marine areas. Several existing reviews and long-term goals for developing useful forecasting 123 Rev Fish Biol Fisheries (2014) 24:519–559 521 Fig. 1 The four biogeographic units of the Canadian Pacific Ocean (DFO 2009) in relation to one of 17 Global Marine Hotspots, which are areas warming faster than 90 % of oceans (Hobday and Pecl 2013) (map produced by E. Gartner) tools (Hollowed et al. 2009, 2011, 2013, Okey et al. ecosections of Canada’s Pacific marine region, and a 2008). A thorough review of knowledge about climate brief summary discussion of options and recommen- change impacts provides value that is independent of dations for climate adaptation planning. such modelling, but it is also provides key information for informing such models and tools. The information herein has already informed a preliminary spatially- The context of Canada’s Pacific ecosystems explicit climate vulnerability assessment of Canada’s marine ecosystems (Okey et al. unpublished data). Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems extend from 48° The close proximity of Canada’s Pacific marine to 53° North latitude in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean ecosystems to one of the ocean’s hotspots of predicted and from the intertidal zone of the Province of British temperature change (Fig. 1) foreshadows rapid eco- Columbia to the 200 nautical mile boundary of the logical changes on a broad scale. The current review is Exclusive Economic Zone (Fig. 2). This area includes framed in the context of the initial work of the Global and encompasses a highly complex and dynamic Marine Hotspots Network (Hobday and Pecl 2013). coastal oceanographic transition zone where the Our present contribution includes a description of eastward-flowing North Pacific Current intersects Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems, including the with North America and diverges into the northward three coastal bioregions, a review of various physical flowing (downwelling) Alaska Coastal Current and the and chemical changes in the region’s climate and southward flowing (upwelling) California Current. In oceanography, an overview of the impacts on the addition, the California Undercurrent extension trans- region’s marine life, a review of sensitivity and ports warm tropical waters to at least Vancouver responses of key taxonomic groups and species, a Island (Thomson and Krassovski 2010), and the review of the sensitive characteristics of the marine Davidson Current—a wind-driven coastal 123 522 Rev Fish Biol Fisheries (2014) 24:519–559 Fig. 2 Map of Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems and the British Columbia coastline with place names that are referred to in the text (map produced by S.
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