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Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq

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Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq MMMeeeaaasssuuurrriiinnnggg SSStttaaabbbiiillliiitttyyy aaannnddd SSSeeecccuuurrriiittyyy iiinnn IIIrrraaaqqq December 2007 Report to Congress In accordance with the Department of Defense Appropriations Act 2007 (Section 9010, Public Law 109-289) Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... iii 1. Stability and Security in Iraq .................................................................................................1 1.1. Political Stability......................................................................................................1 National Reconciliation...........................................................................................1 Political Commitments.............................................................................................1 Government Reform ................................................................................................3 Transnational Issues.................................................................................................5 1.2. Economic Activity...................................................................................................8 Budget Execution.....................................................................................................8 IMF Stand-By Arrangement and Debt Relief..........................................................9 Indicators of Economic Activity..............................................................................9 Oil Infrastructure Integrity.....................................................................................10 Essential Services...................................................................................................11 1.3. Security Environment ............................................................................................16 Overall Assessment of the Security Environment .................................................16 Overall Trends and Violence .................................................................................18 Public Perceptions of Security...............................................................................25 1.4. Transferring Security Responsibility .....................................................................27 2. Iraqi Security Forces Training and Performance...............................................................29 2.1. Assessed Capabilities of the Iraqi Forces ..............................................................30 2.2. Ministry of Interior ................................................................................................34 Ministry of Interior Transition Issues ....................................................................34 Ministry of Interior Forces.....................................................................................38 Iraqi Police Service................................................................................................38 National Police.......................................................................................................39 Directorate of Border Enforcement and Directorate of Ports of Entry..................39 Facilities Protection Service..................................................................................40 National Information and Investigation Agency....................................................41 2.3. Ministry of Defense ...............................................................................................41 Ministry of Defense Transition Issues ...................................................................41 Ministry of Defense Forces....................................................................................45 Army.…. ................................................................................................................46 Navy.…..................................................................................................................49 Air Force ...............................................................................................................49 Counter-Terrorism Bureau.....................................................................................50 Annex A List of Acronyms .................................................................................................51 i December 14, 2007 This page intentionally left blank. ii December 14, 2007 Executive Summary This report to Congress, Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq, is submitted pursuant to Section 9010 of the Department of Defense Appropriations Act 2007, Public Law 109-289 as amended by Section 1308 of Public Law 110-28. The report includes specific performance indicators and measures of progress toward political, economic, and security stability in Iraq, as directed in that legislation. This is the tenth in a series of quarterly reports on this subject. The most recent report was submitted in September 2007. The report complements other reports and information about Iraq provided to Congress and is not intended as a single source of all information about the combined efforts or the future strategy of the United States, its Coalition partners, or Iraq. The strategic goal of the United States in Iraq and economic conditions at the local level. remains a unified, democratic and federal Iraq “Concerned Local Citizen” (CLC) programs that can govern, defend and sustain itself and have been established through which is an ally in the war on terror. This report members of communities work with Coalition measures progress towards, and setbacks and Iraqi forces to protect their neighbor- from, achieving that goal during the reporting hoods and critical infrastructure, with greater period (September through November than 75% under U.S.-funded contracts. This 2007).1 There has been significant security program enhances the ability of Coalition and progress, momentum in reconciliation at the Iraqi forces to interact with local residents local and provincial levels and economic and obtain information on insurgents and progress. However substantial the security illegal militia activity. The CLC movement progress made since the last report, sustained is proving crucial to the counterinsurgency and durable progress depends on further effort and will require continued support. progress in attaining political and economic Efforts to transition these CLC personnel to objectives. The United States, its Coalition regular positions in the army or police or to partners and others in the international provide other employment opportunities are community remain committed to assisting the underway but these efforts are moving Government of Iraq (GoI) in capitalizing on slowly. The pace of integrating the CLC this progress. members into GoI institutions, lack of alternative employment and fears by the The continued implementation of the New Maliki government that these forces may Way Forward strategy combined with the return to violence or form new militias are of surge in overall force levels in Iraq has concern. considerably improved overall levels of security during the past quarter. Improved The number of security incidents has fallen security is beginning to achieve momentum significantly and is now at levels last seen in that, if maintained, may lead to sustained the summer of 2005. Although ethno- stability. The “tribal awakening” movement sectarian violence continues to be a concern, has grown as an increasing number of overall civilian casualties, enemy attacks and sheikhs—Sunni and Shi’a—have chosen to total improvised explosive device attacks stop resisting the Coalition. They are instead have decreased markedly over the reporting working together with the GoI and the period. For example, the number of high- Coalition, including with Provincial profile attacks in Iraq declined by over 50% Reconstruction Teams, to improve security since March 2007. The overall reduction in iii December 14, 2007 security incidents can be attributed to several addition, Iraq and the United States signed a factors, including the continued decrease in Declaration of Principles for a Long-Term capabilities of al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and Relations of Cooperation and Friendship militia extremists, increased tribal initiatives Between the Republic of Iraq and the United against AQI and other extremists, Muqtada States of America on November 26, 2007, al-Sadr’s ceasefire order to his Jaysh al- which establishes a framework for continued Mahdi militia, the increased capability of the bilateral cooperation. Following this, the GoI Iraqi military and police, the separation of signed the United Nations Security Council Iraq’s previously mixed sectarian communi- Resolution renewal letter, which is consistent ties into homogenous neighborhoods and the with the road map laid out in the Declaration sustained presence of Coalition and Iraqi of Principles. forces among the population. On the international front, on November 2-3, Coalition forces continue to transfer 2007, Turkey hosted the second Iraq responsibility for security to the GoI. Expanded Neighbors Ministerial Conference, Karbala Province transitioned to Provincial which concluded with a commitment to Iraqi Control (PIC) on October 29, 2007, establish a temporary office in Baghdad to bringing the total number of provinces for support the Neighbors Process, the reiteration which the GoI has lead security responsibility of broad international support
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