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THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY SCHREYER HONORS COLLEGE DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY UNDERSTANDING THE SPREAD OF ISIS IN IRAQ WILLIAM D. COUGHLIN SPRING 2016 A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for baccalaureate degrees in Geography and International Politics with honors in Geography Reviewed and approved* by the following: Rodger Downs Professor of Geography Honors Advisor and Thesis Supervisor Donna Peuquet Professor of Geography Faculty Reader * Signatures are on file in the Schreyer Honors College. i ABSTRACT The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) first took control of territory in Iraq in 2013 and the group has continued to expand its control and influence despite international intervention. The rise of ISIS was unexpected and unprecedented, and there continues to be a lack of understanding of how ISIS was able to gain a large amount of territory in such a short amount of time. This paper aims to establish what the core factors are that allowed ISIS to form, spread and govern territory in Iraq. The ESRI exploratory regression tool was used to create a multivariate regression model and to analyze twelve factors that may play significant roles in the spread of ISIS. The factors that were considered are ethnicity (Sunni, Shia, Kurdish and mixed), water resources, civilian deaths, suicide bombing deaths, distance from Syria, population, location of Iraqi military brigades, and major cities. The final multivariate regression model had Kurdish majority, water resources, civilian deaths, distance from Syria and Iraqi military brigades as significant factors. These five exploratory variables has an R2 of .77, explaining 77% of towns controlled by ISIS. These factors provide insight into the rise of ISIS and help to explain what type of environment within Iraq allowed for the spread of ISIS. This qualitative and quantitative research allows for greater understanding of the adversary, which is the first step in defeating them. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................... iii LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................... iv Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 2 Context ........................................................................................................ 3 Chapter 3 Methods and Data........................................................................................ 8 Chapter 4 Results ......................................................................................................... 16 Chapter 5 Conclusion ................................................................................................... 27 Appendix A Maps ....................................................................................................... 30 Appendix B Data......................................................................................................... 37 BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................ 39 Academic Vita of William Coughlin ........................................................................... 42 iii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Extent of ISIS Control ............................................................................................... 4 Figure 2 Iraqi Provinces ........................................................................................................... 7 Figure 3 ISIS Control July, 2014 ............................................................................................. 19 Figure 4 ISIS Control August, 2014 ........................................................................................ 20 Figure 5 Kurdish Majority ....................................................................................................... 22 Figure 6 Water Resources ........................................................................................................ 23 Figure 7 Civilian Deaths .......................................................................................................... 24 Figure 8 Distance from Syria ................................................................................................... 25 Figure 9 Iraqi Military Brigades .............................................................................................. 26 Figure 10 Sunni Majority ......................................................................................................... 30 Figure 11 Shia Majority ........................................................................................................... 31 Figure 12 Mixed Ethnicity ....................................................................................................... 32 Figure 13 Suicide Bombing Deaths ......................................................................................... 33 Figure 14 Population ................................................................................................................ 34 Figure 15 Major Cities ............................................................................................................. 35 Figure 16 Oil Fields ................................................................................................................. 36 iv LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Ethnicity, Water Resources, Civilian Deaths, Suicide Bomb Deaths & Major Cities Data37 Table 2 Water Resources, Civilian Deaths, Suicide Bomb Deaths and Major Cities Data ..... 38 1 Chapter 1 Introduction “I think the analogy we use around here sometimes, and I think is accurate, is if a JV team puts on Lakers uniforms, that doesn’t make them Kobe Bryant.” – President Obama (January, 2014) President Obama made the above statement in regards to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) capturing the town of Fallujah in Iraq. As ISIS began to conquer large swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria, Obama qualified his statement by saying that he was not speaking directly about ISIS even though transcripts of the conversation show clearly that he was. Obama’s naive statement referring to ISIS as the “JV Team” illustrates how unexpected and surprising the rise of ISIS was. The United States Intelligence Community and the US Government failed to predict the growth of ISIS and failed to understand the root factors that allowed for an extremist insurgency to control and govern major towns and areas in Iraq. The rise of ISIS was not a spontaneous movement but rather had historical and social roots allowing ISIS, which is called many names including the Islamic State, (IS), Daesh and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), captured the attention of the United States and the international community in June of 2014 when ISIS captured the strategically significant town of Mosul in Iraq. Until the fall of Mosul to ISIS, the group was not well known and not considered a grave threat by the international community. Most expected that the Iraqi army, which received its training from the United States military, would quickly respond and retake the city. However, instead of responding to ISIS, many Iraqi soldiers fled the battlefield, leaving their American- 2 issued weapons behind. Even with the collapse of Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, the Iraqi Prime Minister broadcasted on Iraqi state television that the Iraqi government would not allow the remainder of the province and city to fall (Carter, 2014). The idea that ISIS was a short-term problem, where the Iraqi military and civilian militias could quickly restore control shows the lack of understanding of the underlying reasons for the success of ISIS. This paper aims to establish what core factors allowed ISIS to form, spread and govern territory within the boundaries of Iraq despite international interference. The Iraqi government and the international community failed to determine and understand these factors and work to mitigate their effects in contributing to an armed extremist insurgency. Without understanding why ISIS was able to accomplish such monumental gains in a relatively short amount of time, it will be difficult to preventing the further spread of ISIS and to regain territory lost to ISIS. Using a multivariate regression model, I will incorporate societal, cultural, demographic and environmental data in order to better understand what factors have the largest influence on ISIS taking control of a town. Using a statistical approach combines qualitative research with quantitative analysis to provide an explanation of the rise of ISIS. In this paper Chapter Two will provide a brief history of ISIS, explaining their goals and ideology and how they rose to power. Chapter Three will discuss the multivariate regression model that is used to analyze ISIS and the data that was used. Chapter Four will explain the results of the model and offer an explanation and interpretation of the outcome. Finally, Chapter Five will focus on putting ISIS into context and the strengths and weaknesses of the analysis used. 3 Chapter 2 Context Rise of ISIS: ISIS can trace its roots back to a branch of the well-known terrorist organization al-Qaeda. ISIS was originally part of the branch known as al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) but after the leader’s death in 2006 an umbrella organization was created called the Islamic State in Iraq (ISI) (BBC, 2015). This insurgency group was carrying