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Give Me More of This Crab 12M Price Target SGD 0.58 (+36%)

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Give Me More of This Crab 12M Price Target SGD 0.58 (+36%) January 3, 2016 Jumbo Group Ltd (JUMBO SP) BUY Share Price SGD 0.43 Give Me More Of This Crab 12m Price Target SGD 0.58 (+36%) Company description Initiating coverage: BUY to SGD0.58 TP F&B retailer in Singapore and China, most famous for Jumbo’s highly-profitable seafood restaurants and signature crab dishes its chilli crabs and JUMBO Seafood brand JPOT are much loved in Singapore and now, being successfully exported to Hotpot. Has five other brands in its stable. China where it has three outlets. With its far bigger market potential and high ROI, there is room to add one new outlet in China a year as new outlets fully recoup investments in just 1-3 years. Jumbo deserves a Statistics premium to peers for its uniquely-Singapore brand and product and first- 52w high/low (SGD) na/na mover advantage in China. We initiate coverage with a BUY and DCF-P/E 3m avg turnover (USDm) 3.8 blended TP of SGD0.58. Free float (%) 24.3 Issued shares (m) 641 Market capitalisation SGD272.6M Consumer Staples Bringing a uniquely Singapore dish to China USD193M Jumbo’s expansion in China is just beginning. The mainland Chinese have Major shareholders: taken to chilli crabs in droves, and we think this expansion will provide JBO Holdings 57.9% years of double-digit growth to come. We project accelerating earnings Mr Tan Gee Jian 6.6% growth of 9%/11%/20% in FY16E-18E, driving China from a 10% market Orchid 1 Investments 6.2% now to 32% of revenue by FY18E. By our estimates, its China outlets are Price Performance capable of generating ROI of 32-86% with a relatively short payback 0.440 160 period of 1-3 years which reduces risk. 0.420 150 0.400 140 Singapore More than just crabs that can travel 0.380 130 Jumbo has demonstrated that it can successfully replicate its seafood- 0.360 120 restaurant business in China. But it has other dining concepts (eg hotpot, Teochew cuisine, bak kut teh) that can be exported overseas as well, not 0.340 110 just in China but the rest of South-east Asia. Gross margins for all its 0.320 100 brands run in the 40-60% range, and with scale, we see room for upside. 0.300 90 Nov-15 Nov-15 Nov-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Deserving of a tasty premium Jumbo Group Ltd - (LHS, SGD) Jumbo Group Ltd / Straits Times Index - (RHS, %) We value Jumbo at SGD0.58 for c.40% potential upside. We use blended -1M -3M -12M P/E and DCF valuations to capture the full value of its mid-term Absolute (%) 8 na na expansion potential. This values Jumbo at 25x FY16E, 22x FY17E and 19x Relative to index (%) 6 na na FY18E EPS, a slight premium to its regional peers. Our DCF valuation of Source: FactSet SGD0.65 is conservative, assuming a higher-than-usual 10% market return and 1.2x beta for possibly higher risks from its China expansion. Good growth, high margins, strong cashflow: What more can you ask for? FYE Sep (SGD m) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E (SGD'000) Revenue 112 123 147 169 191 70,000 60% EBITDA 19 18 22 25 31 60,000 Core net profit 13 14 15 17 20 50% Core EPS (cts) 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.6 3.1 50,000 40% Core EPS growth (%) 39.8 3.0 8.6 11.1 20.5 40,000 Net DPS (cts) 0.0 8.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 30% Core P/E (x) 20.4 19.8 18.3 16.4 13.6 30,000 20% P/BV (x) 5.8 4.8 6.3 4.9 3.9 20,000 Net dividend yield (%) 0.0 19.0 1.6 1.8 2.2 10,000 10% ROAE (%) 31.8 26.4 29.8 33.7 31.8 ROAA (%) 20.8 17.8 18.5 19.2 19.0 0 0% FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E EV/EBITDA (x) na na 10.3 9.1 7.3 Net cash Free cashflow Net debt/equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash Core NP growth (RHS) Gross margin (RHS) Consensus net profit - - na na na MKE vs. Consensus (%) - - na na na Gregory Yap [email protected] (65) 6231 5848 SEE PAGE 43 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012 Jumbo Group Ltd Company Proposition Price Drivers . A restaurant operator whose greatest value proposition is Revenue breakdown 1 2 3 4 ability to generate high demand for its business with reasonable prices and consistent taste. Iconic dishes, footprint of outlets in ideal locations, strong brands and effective front- and back-end operations provide high defensible margins. Branding and identity that hinge on signature seafood such as chilli crab, a national dish. Helps it stand out in crowded markets especially when expanding overseas. 1 . Low-cost cash business financed by suppliers’ credit. High FCF generation supports aggressive expansion plans yet provides future dividend support for shareholders. How Jumbo stacks up on profitability & returns Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng estimates Avg 3Y Net Margin Flagship brands: Jumbo - JUMBO SEAFOOD 12.0 Japan Foods - Ajisen Ramen Jumbo Japan Foods ABR - Swensen's, Gloria Jean's Coffees 10.0 Listed just in Nov 2015, trading history is too short to Soup Restaurant - SOUP BreadTalk - Din Tai Fung, Carl's Jr 8.0 identify inflexion points. We believe market will focus on its Sakae Holdings - Sakae Sushi ABR Holdings opening of new outlets in China and/or introduction of new Auric Pacific - Delifrance, Food Junction 6.0 Tung Lok - TungLok, Lao Beijing Soup Restaurant dining concepts. 4.0 Sakae Holdings 1. Second China JUMBO SEAFOOD outlet opened in Raffles BreadTalk Auric Pacific 2.0 City Shanghai in Aug 2015. 0.0 2. Third China outlet opening in IFC Mall in Jan 2016. (70.0) (60.0) (50.0) (40.0) (30.0) (20.0) (10.0) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 (2.0) Avg 3Y ROE 3. Fourth China outlet assumed to open in Oct 2016. (4.0) 4. Fifth China outlet assumed to open in Oct 2017, fourth Tung Lok (6.0) JPOT outlet in Singapore assumed to open in mid-FY17 Source: FactSet estimates, Maybank Kim Eng Financial Metrics Swing Factors . Revenue growth. Given two new JUMBO outlets in China, Upside would expect to see increasingly stronger topline growth in next 3-4 quarters, unless other brands underperform. Better-than-expected Singapore and China sales, . EBIT & net margins. Gross margin (excluding direct costs especially from new outlets. such as food & rental) is controllable. There may be . Lower-than-expected food and staff costs that could lead quarters of higher start-up costs where margins fall below to better-than-expected margins. trend, but generally expect good indirect cost . Expectations of higher dividends or articulation of a management and efficient tax planning. dividend policy. Watch for deteriorating asset & liability turns. Strong FCF generation comes from AP days far exceeding AR and stock days. Don’t be alarmed if FCF is dragged down by capex. Downside Strong revenue growth with stable margins expected . Any changes in China’s food safety laws that could affect China’s import of mud crabs. 25.0% . Shortage of critical ingredients for its signature dishes: 19% 20.0% crabs, other seafood. Epidemics or health scares that can damage its 15% 15.0% 13% reputation or cuisine eg mass food poisoning, salmonella. 9% 10.0% 12.2% 12.3% 12.2% 13.2% 5.0% 10.4% 10.2% 9.8% 10.4% 0.0% FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E EBIT margin Net margin Revenue growth Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng estimates [email protected] January 3, 2016 2 Jumbo Group Ltd Fig 1: SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses . Strong branding in Singapore, widely known by locals. Limited differentiation of menu, especially signature Outlets well-located in key tourist hotspots. seafood dishes. 14 restaurants in Singapore, two in China with five brands. Supply of seafood, especially crabs, may be affected by disease or closure of source markets. Front-end optimises diner-capture and outlet utilisation. Back-end centralises cooking and food preparation. Rental costs may escalate, especially as expansion is taking it into REIT-controlled malls. Consistent taste of dishes through standardised preparation of ingredients lowers staffing cost. Opportunities Threats . Strong reception in China. Room to grow number of . New outlets or brands fail to take off. outlets in Shanghai. Fluctuation of food cost (80% of COGS), especially seafood . Capitalise on rising food-safety awareness in China as a which account for 70-80% of revenue. well-regarded Singapore brand. Adverse food-safety developments could hurt revenue and . Other brands can also be exported to China or South-east brand value. Asia. Change in consumer tastes and preferences or sharp drop . Expansion into higher-margin catering business. in tourist arrivals could affect demand. Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng Fig 2: Porter’s Five Forces Model Analysis Threat of new entrants: Low-to-Medium Anyone can start a seafood restaurant, but not many have as large a footprint as Jumbo or its strong branding. Bargaining Bargaining power of suppliers: power of customers: Low Industry competition: Top three seafood High Medium Buyers can vote suppliers account Seafood restaurant business is with their feet and for less than 20% of fragmented. Jumbo’s biggest value wallets.
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