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Asian Insights Sparx Singapore Downstream F&B Asian Insights SparX Singapore downstream F&B Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 9 Sep 2019 Mass-market F&B set to sizzle STI : 3,144.48 • Lifestyle, affluence, and eating habits have lifted mass-market F&B to the sector’s sweet spot which Analyst offers the hottest growth opportunities Alfie YEO +65 6682 3717 • Mass-market segment (<S$20 per head spend) is [email protected] worth S$6.2bn and expected to grow at >2% CAGR Derek TAN +65 6682 3716 • Stock beneficiaries are F&B players with mass- [email protected] market exposure and a clear regional growth strategy • Top picks: F&B - Jumbo, Koufu; retail REITs - Mapletree Commercial Trust, CapitaLand Mall Trust, Frasers Centrepoint Trust F&B foodservice market is expected to grow at > 2% CAGR in STOCKS the next five years. Singapore’s F&B sector has grown at a 1.1% 12-mth CAGR in the past five years and is expected to grow at a faster 2.1% Price Mkt Cap Target Price Performance (%) CAGR over the next five years, led by the mass-market F&B segment S$ US$m S$ 3 mth 12 mth Rating which we define by per-head spend of S$20 or less. BreadTalk Group Ltd 0.65 263 0.61 (17.3) (34.2) HOLD Hottest growth found in mass-market segment. The mass-market Koufu Group Limited 0.74 295 0.88 6.5 12.2 BUY segment, estimated to be worth S$6.2bn (75% of Singapore’s F&B Jumbo Group 0.37 172 0.47 (2.6) (26.0) BUY market), is thriving in line with eating habits, lifestyle and affluence of Japan Foods Holdings consumers. In contrast, some higher-end restaurants have closed 0.44 54.7 0.41 1.2 (12.1) NR Ltd recently. Mass-market F&B has shown robust growth and resilience to GDP cycles, offering both quality and value to consumers, with the next Old Chang Kee Ltd 0.73 64.1 0.76 N.A N.A NR 5-year CAGR estimated at over 2.5% for each mass market sub- CapitaLand Mall Trust 2.67 7,130 2.95 4.7 25.9 BUY segment (cafes, kiosks and limited service restaurants). Frasers Centrepoint 2.76 2,230 2.95 9.5 21.2 BUY Trust Expect players in mass-market space to benefit. We believe F&B Mapletree Commercial and REIT players with clear growth and cost management strategies in 2.24 4,694 2.40 10.9 39.1 BUY Trust the mass market segment are in a sweet spot for growth, particularly F&B stocks with strong local presence and regional exposure to rising Source: DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P. middle-class markets. We see retail REITs that as able to successfully Closing price as of 6 Sep 2019 integrate these in-demand offerings into their malls as those that are better equipped to outperform. Our top picks are Jumbo, Koufu, MCT, FCT, CMT. The F&B foodservice sector trades at 19x forward PE, lower than our Singapore consumer universe average of 22x PE. Our picks for the sector are Jumbo and Koufu, as both have strong exposure to the mass-market segment, with clear growth drivers for both local and overseas expansion. Earnings growth will be led by store and margin expansion and better efficiencies. Both are trading at less than 20x forward PE. Our retail mall picks are Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT), Ca pitaLand Mall Trust (CMT) and Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT). Page 1 ed: JS/ sa: YM, PY, CS Asian Insights SparX Singapore Downstream F&B The DBS Asian Insights SparX report is a deep dive look into thematic angles impacting the longer term investment thesis for a sector, country or the region. We view this as an ongoing conversation rather than a one off treatise on the topic, and invite feedback from our readers, and in particular welcome follow on questions worthy of closer examination. Table of Contents Executive Summary 3 Mass-market F&B is the fastest-growing segment in Singapore 5 • CAGR of over 2% projected for Singapore F&B in the next five years • Hottest growth opportunities can be found in the mass-market F&B segment Recent consumption trends support sustainable long-term growth of mass-market F&B segment 8 • Millennials’ consumption trend fueling growth in the mass-market segment • More targeted and personal advertising strategies can further benefit F&B mass-market segments • Fine-dining segment the biggest casualty of outlet closures in Singapore • Meanwhile, limited service restaurants and kiosks continue to thrive • Acquisitions reflect robust investment demand for mass-market F&B • Diners favour casual, quick-turn concepts • Reconfiguration of tenancies by landlords signal more opportunities for F&B players • Opportunity for further mass-market concepts remain, particularly in the suburbs F&B companies continue to deliver earnings growth, overcoming cost pressure 14 • Singapore F&B companies’ earnings have historically grown at a rate of 3.3% • Slight net margin decline as lower food cost mitigates higher operating costs • Mall rental rates picking up but larger players with better bargaining power will be less affected • Companies continue to grow with margin enhancement/productivity strategies • Conclusion Valuations and stock picks 19 Stock profiles 22 • Koufu • Jumbo Group • BreadTalk Group • Old Chang Kee • Japan Foods Holdings • Capital Mall Trust • Frasers Commercial Trust • Mapletree Commercial Trust Page 3 Page 2 Asian Insights SparX Singapore Downstream F&B Executive Summary Hottest growth opportunities can be found in the mass- Mass market continues to grow with new dining options. The market F&B segment F&B foodservice scene remains robust, with recently opened Jewel Changi Airport contributing more mass-market dining Singapore’s foodservice sector is led by cafés/bars, limited choices with new brands and new concepts such as A&W and service restaurants, and street stalls/kiosks. According to Shake Shack. Online orders are also becoming more common Euromonitor, Singapore’s F&B foodservice market is worth as society goes cashless and driving up deliveries for more about S$8.3bn and is expected to grow by 2.1% CAGR by casual food options. 2023 led by cafés/bars, limited service restaurants, and street stalls/kiosks. From 2008-2018, the F&B food service sector Mass-market concepts can better navigate and overcome cost grew by 2.4% CAGR driven by the abovementioned formats, challenges than high-end F&B. We believe the mid-range whereas the full-service restaurants expanded by a much mass-market segment will continue to be viable compared to slower 0.8% CAGR over the same period and is projected to niche high-end low-turnover dining concepts. With cost grow at an even slower 0.4% over the next five years. challenges, the mass-market segment will be able to extract higher productivity by implementing more self-service Mass-market F&B leads Singapore’s F&B growth, driven by initiatives more easily than high-end full-service formats, as more transactions. The F&B foodservice sector is expected to foreign worker dependency ratio is being tightened. We be driven by higher F&B spend per transaction, and growth in believe companies will need to continuously find ways to number of transactions, accounting for 1.2ppts of innovate processes to improve productivity and profitability. Euromonitor’s 5-year 2.1% growth projection. This We favour retail landlords, and F&B operators that are underscores our belief that the mass-market segment targeting the more economically priced mass-market segment (defined by per head spend of S$20 or less) remains a highly and allocating more retail space and starting brands to cater viable segment with an estimated total market size of for this segment. S$6.2bn (75% of Singapore’s F&B market). Thus, operators in the slowing higher-end full-service restaurants segment might Malls are also trending toward higher proportion of mass need to operate with caution. market F&B. The composition of malls has gradually shifted in favour of more non-discretionary (particularly mass-market High-end restaurants have closed. Costs remain a challenge in F&B) and activity-based concepts that are harder to replicate Singapore, as seen by some higher-end restaurants. Even online. This will likely remain a key strategy for landlords three- and two-Michelin-starred restaurants such as going forward, who are starting to see value in incorporating Robuchon Restaurant and Restaurant Andre had to relinquish more mass-market F&B tenants into the mix. their stars due to low profitability. The recent slow GDP growth rate projections for Singapore could also fuel more Stock beneficiaries are F&B/REIT players with mass switching from high-end to mass-market segment as market exposure and clear regional growth strategies compared to previous years. Favour stocks exposed to mass market with overseas Lifestyle, affluence, eating habits lift mass-market F&B exposure and cost management strategies. We believe F&B to the sector’s sweet spot and REIT players with clear growth and cost management strategies in the mass market are in a sweet spot for growth. Current lifestyle trends support mass-market F&B, lifting it to Those with strong local presence and regional exposure to the sweet spot. Companies in the mass-market segment rising middle-class markets are key stock beneficiaries. These continue to grow through acquisitions such as NTUC companies are capable of morphing into multi-format, multi- Foodfare’s acquisition of Kopitiam and BreadTalk’s planned cuisine, and multi-brand F&B companies.
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