Tim Francisco

GOOD MORNING: 02/13/19 Farm Direction ­ Van Trump Report 1 message

The Van Trump Report Wed, Feb 13, 2019 at 7:08 AM Reply­To: Jordan To: [email protected]

"We generate fears while we sit. We over come them by action. Fear is nature's way of warning us to get busy." ­ Dr. Henry Link 1822, Ashley Advertises for WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2019 Western Fur Trappers ­ Printable Copy or Audio Version Missouri Lieutenant Governor William Ashley places an Morning Summary: Stocks are slightly higher this morning as bulls remain optimistic advertisement in the Missouri about two nearby hurdles perhaps being cleared. Leaders in Washington seem to have Gazette and Public Advisor seeking 100 reached a budget compromise that will help avoid another government shutdown. There “enterprising young men” to engage in fur has also been more optimistic headlines circulating regarding Chinese trade. Headlines trading on the Upper Missouri. A Virginia were circulating yesterday that President Trump was “open” to letting the March 1 native, Ashley had moved to Missouri just Chinese trade deadline slide if the two countries are close to a deal by then. Technically, after President Thomas Jefferson the bulls are also extremely excited to see the S&P 500 move back above its 200­day concluded the Louisiana Purchase from moving average and post a new two­month high. Keep in mind, the last time the S&P France, which made the region American 500 closed back above the 200­DMA was on December 3rd. The cash contract is now territory. Young and eager to make a extremely close to entering the "back­to­even zone" I pointed out a few weeks back, up name for himself, he entered into a between 2750 and 2800. It's inside this range that many investors will find themselves partnership with Andrew Henry to begin getting back near even or being made whole from losses they incurred during the big manufacturing gunpowder and lead, two break in December. The psychological question is if investors will be anxious to cash in commodities that were in short supply in their chips and move to the sideline, breathing a huge sigh of relief, or will they be the new nation. During the War of 1812, wanting to raise their bets and press their luck into into the rally? I'm personally Ashley’s business prospered, and he also thinking we could be range bound this year and we are starting to push the upper­ joined the Missouri militia, where he limits. I think there could be further upside as long as the Fed and other global banks eventually earned the rank of general. stay dovish and more flexible. I also believe there could be more upside if a solid trade When Missouri became a state in 1822, resolution is confirmed and inked between U.S. and Chinese leaders. But I still think he used his business and military fame to there's some ongoing concerns and questions regarding U.S. forward looking corporate win election as lieutenant governor. guidance and just how much investors are going to be willing to pay for flattening Casting about for opportunities to enrich growth. I'm not saying the economy is falling apart by any means. I'm just saying, the both Missouri and his own pocketbook, stocks market is deep into a massive bull run and stock valuations aren't cheap. Ashley realized that St. Louis was ideally Meaning, we have to wonder if investors are going to pay up for the premium to situated to exploit the fur trade on the participate this late in the cycle? As for today's economic news, the trade will digest the upper Missouri River. Ashley recruited his latest Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the old friend Henry as a partner, and the two average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of men placed their famous advertisement consumer goods and services. Just to provide an idea of what happened with prices in asking for robust, adventurous young 2018... Food prices increased +1.6% from December 2017 to December 2018, the men to come west to join a fur trapping same as the previous year. Prices for food at home rose +0.6% in 2018, after rising expedition up the Missouri. Among the +0.9% in 2017. Interestingly, prices for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs fell ­0.4% in scores who responded and came to St. 2018, following a +2.8% increase in 2017. Prices for dairy and related products fell Louis were such future legendary ­0.1% in 2018, the fourth straight yearly decline. Energy prices fell ­0.3% in 2018, mountain men as Jedediah Smith and Jim after a +6.9% increase in 2017. Gasoline prices decreased ­2.1% in 2018, following a Bridger, as well as the famous river man +10.7% increase in 2017. Prices for natural gas increased for the third straight year in Mike Fink. In time, these men and dozens 2018, rising +2.3%, compared with +4.7% in 2017. Prices for electricity increased of others would uncover many of the +1.1% in 2018, after rising +2.6% in 2017. Medical care prices increased +2.0% in geographic mysteries of the Far West. In 2018, following a +1.8% increase in 2017. Prescription drug prices fell ­0.6% in 2018, 1822, Ashley and a small band of his fur while prices rose +3.7% for hospital services and +0.6% for physicians' services. Don't trappers built a trading post on the forget, there's also another big wave of corporate earnings scheduled for release today. Yellowstone River of Montana in order to Below is a simple chart showing the S&P 500 rebounding back above the 200­DMA. You expand outward from the Missouri River. can also see the heavier resistance on the charts up near 2800. Staying nimble... Arikara Indians, though, were deeply hostile to Ashley’s attempts to undercut Will U.S. Consumers Start Buying More Food Online? Twenty­two percent of their long­standing position as middlemen apparel sales and 30% of computer and electronics sales happen online today, but in the fur trade. Arikara attacks the same can be said for only 3% of grocery sales, according to a report from eventually forced the men to abandon the Deutsche Bank Securities. This is not true in every country. In South Korea, 20% Yellowstone post. Out of desperation, of consumers buy groceries online, and both in the United Kingdom and Japan, Ashley hit on a new strategy: instead of 7.5% of consumers do, according to Kantar Consulting. But those are countries building central permanent forts along the with just a few large population centers, which makes it easier for delivery major rivers, he decided to send his companies to set up shop in a few big cities and access a huge amount of trappers overland in small groups purchasing power. In the United States, by contrast, people are spread out around traveling by horseback. By avoiding the rural, urban, and suburban areas, making it hard to reach a majority of shoppers river arteries, the trappers could both from just a few physical locations. In South Korea and Japan, customers are also escape detection by hostile Indians and more comfortable with shopping on their phone than consumers are in countries develop untapped new fur regions. Almost like the United States. In June 2017, Amazon bought Whole Foods for $13.4 billion by accident, Ashley invented the famous and started rolling out grocery delivery for Prime members in cities across the “rendezvous” system that revolutionized country; analysts predicted at the time that the company’s logistics know­how the American fur trade. In order for the would allow it to leverage Whole Foods stores to dominate grocery delivery. Also in trappers to obtain necessary supplies and 2017, Walmart acquired Parcel, a same­day, last­mile delivery company. Two deliver their furs, Ashley told the trappers months after that, Target said it was buying Shipt, a same­day delivery service. to meet with him in a large meadow near Kroger announced last May that it was partnering with Ocado, a British online the Henry’s Fork of Wyoming’s Green grocer, to speed up delivery with robotically operated warehouses. Companies like River in the early summer of 1825. This ALDI, Food Lion, and Publix have started working with Instacart to deliver groceries first fur trapper rendezvous proved a from their stores. FreshDirect recently opened a highly automated 400,000­square­ huge success. Ashley took home a tidy foot delivery center and says it plans to expand its reach. You can read more at The profit for his efforts, while the fur Atlantic trappers not only had an opportunity to trade for supplies, but a chance to enjoy National Debt Tops $22 Trillion for the First Time: The Treasury Department a few weeks of often drunken socializing. reported the debt hit $22.012 trillion, a jump of more than $30 billion just this After organizing a second highly profitable month. The nation has added more than $1 trillion in debt in the last 11 months. rendezvous in 1826, Ashley decided to The biggest drivers are the aging population, high healthcare costs, and growing sell out. His rendezvous system, though, interest payments. We have to hope the improved business landscape and more continued to be used by others, and people working will increase tax revenue and start paying down the debt. eventually became the foundation for the powerful Rocky Mountain Fur Company. With plenty of money in the bank, Ashley was able to return to his first love, politics. He won election to Congress three times and once to the Senate, where he helped further the interests of the western land that had made him rich.

1920, League of Nations Recognizes Perpetual Swiss Neutrality ­ The League of Nations, the international organization formed at the peace conference at Versailles in the wake of World War I, recognizes the perpetual neutrality of Switzerland on this day in 1920. Switzerland was a loose confederation of German­, French­, and Italian­speaking communities until 1878, when the French, under Napoleon Bonaparte, unified the country as the Helvetic Republic and imposed a constitution, which was enforced by French occupation troops. Bitterly resented by the Swiss people, the French occupation ended in 1803, when Napoleon agreed to a new Swiss­ approved constitution and withdrew his troops. The Congress of Vienna in 1815, which would determine Europe’s borders until the outbreak of World War I nearly a century later, recognized the perpetual neutrality of Switzerland. The Swiss considered preserving this neutrality essential to Switzerland’s economic and political development. A new constitution, adopted in 1848, reinforced the neutrality principle by outlawing Swiss service in foreign armies or the acceptance of pensions from foreign governments. Neither the unification of Italy in 1861 nor the birth of the German empire in 1871 shook the loyalty of the nation’s Italian or German population to Switzerland. With industrialization, fueled largely by hydroelectric power, and the construction of an efficient railroad network, Switzerland’s economy continued to grow, spawning a thriving tourism industry by the end of the 19th century. Though Switzerland maintained its neutrality during World War I, with German, French and Italian Swiss standing firm to preserve their country’s solidarity, a costly military mobilization to protect the Swiss borders diverted most of the working population to war­related work and brought economic hardship. After the war ended, membership in the League of Nations—the international organization established at the Versailles peace conference—was narrowly approved by Swiss voters after a federal council opposed it. In February 1920, the League voted to recognize the perpetual neutrality of Switzerland. The League also established its headquarters in the Swiss city of Geneva, a tribute to the country’s neutrality as well as its relative economic and political stability, which has continued to the present day.

1991, Long­lost Twain Manuscript Authenticated ­ On this day, Sotheby’s announced the discovery of a long­lost manuscript of Huckleberry Finn by Mark Twain. The manuscript was the first half of Twain’s original version, heavily corrected in his own handwriting, which had been missing for more than a century. The manuscript surfaced when a 62­year­old Los Angeles librarian finally got around to sorting through some old papers in six trunks sent to her when an aunt from upstate New York died. Twain, it turned out, had sent the second half of the manuscript to the librarian’s grandfather, James Gluck, who had solicited it for the Buffalo and Erie Library in Buffalo, New York, where Twain had once lived. At the time, Twain was unable to find the entire manuscript, and it was presumed lost for more than 100 years. However, it turned out that Twain did eventually find the manuscript and send it to Gluck. A custody war over the manuscript ensued, with the sisters, the library, and the Mark Twain Papers Projects in Berkeley, California, squabbling over rights to the papers. Ultimately, the three parties struck a deal: The library would hold the rights to the physical papers, but all three parties would share in the publication rights. Because the novel contained previously unpublished material, and showed Twain’s edits, interest in publishing the manuscript was high, and in 1995 Random House won the rights to publish the book for an undisclosed price.

Thurs. 02/14 ­ Valentine's Day

Fri. 02/15 ­ Retail Sales, NOPA Crush

Mon. 02/18 – President's Day (Some Markets Closed)

Tues. 2/19 – Full Moon, Export Inspections

Wed. 02/20 ­ Housing Starts & Pmts

Thur. 02/21 – Jobless Claims Fri. 02/22 – Export Sales, Cattle on Feed/Cold Storage

Mon. 02/25 – Export Inspections

Thurs 02/28 – Export Sales, Jobless Claims “I am a recent subscriber to Kevin’s newsletter, but I’m a long­time reader of many other high­profile marketing services. I am particularly impressed with the thorough manner in which Kevin evaluates every economic aspect, both nationally and internationally, that influences commodity prices. His analysis and conclusions are highly thought out and conveyed in layman’s terms so that the reader can comprehend the numerous and often complex interrelationships that impact the markets. Kevin is a real attribute to the agricultural sector.”

A.M., FDIC

“As a national federal farm policy administrator and commodity producer, I find it critical to keep updated with what is going on in the real world of agriculture and with the domestic and global markets. Of all the services I’ve have been privy to or have subscribed to over the past 20 years I’ve found in the past several months of engaging in your “Farm Direction” services to be the best perception and analysis of what is really happening in today’s world. Not only here in the United States, but across the globe as well. US farmers need this type of help and information to assist them in their daily efforts. I commend you for a job well done. Please let me know if I can ever be of any help or assistance to you in the future…”

L.T., Assistant Deputy Administrator for Farm Programs USDA

"Not To Trade, is often considered a good trading decision..."

"First Rule of HOLES: When you are in one stop digging..."

"Every looser in Vegas, always walks away from the table thinking he could have done better, the winners on the other hand leave while on top..."

"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered..."

"The markets ability to remain irrational can often times last much longer than your ability to remain solvent..."

I'm more of a long­term player, therefore you will not see me give many short­term suggestions or trade ideas. One of my most important rules is that I always follow my long­term direction. Therefore, as long as I am "bullish" a market I will only play that particular market in one of three ways.

Option #1 ­ Conservatively long. Option #2 ­ Aggressively long. Option #3 ­ Sitting on the sideline.

I never initiate a "short" position in a market that I am "bullish" longer­term, nor do I initiate a "long" position in a market I am "bearish" longer­term.

As we age, it gets harder and harder to create new neural pathways in the brain. It’s the reason kids find it so easy to learn new things, but as adults it often gets more difficult. Doing brain teasers and solving riddles can be an important part of keeping our brain healthy. The more connections we can form, the better our brain will be. I hope this helps provide a little daily fun and exercise. The answer to each riddle or puzzle will be located at the bottom of the report.

TODAY'S RIDDLE:

Why did the hamburger go to the gym?

Corn bulls are happy to see renewed buying interest in the export market. The USDA yesterday announced a sale of +120k metric tons to an "unknown" along with a bit more buying from South Korea. There continues to be rumors and talk of China perhaps sniffing around the U.S. corn market but absolutely no official confirmation. As I mentioned yesterday, CONAB raised their corn production estimate for Brazil on thoughts of larger second­crop production. Remember, the soybeans are coming out of the ground early in Brazil, meaning second­crop corn might see less weather related stress late in the season. Here at home there's still a ton of debate about new­crop corn acres and just how many will be planted? I say it's still too early to call out an accurate estimate, especially with so little fall field work being completed snd still a lot of unknowns regarding weather and price. Producers who are still holding old­crop should be taking a hard look at the basis. I've been talking to some friends and partners across the country who have noted a nice jump in the basis in some select locations. Through the years I've found some good opportunities in rural delivery points when the weather gets difficult and the farmers aren't wanting to move bushels. Believe it or not, I've actually heard of some ethanol plants bumping their basis higher this week. I suspect the weather and weaker prices have really stopped the flow of corn in some locations. If you call around and find someone offering a nice bump, I like the thought of selling the cash bushels and re­owning in some limited­risk type play on the board. On a farm yesterday, I sold old­crop bushels with a positive basis and re­owned the board with a bull­call spread in the JUL19 contract. I've heard a few other producers selling cash and simply buying a call. In simply terms, this limits the downside risk on all old­crop bushels and allows further participation to the upside should we catch a spring rally. I'm just worried, with so many producers holding old­crop bushels, that once the weather starts to warm up and folks start wanting to move bushels we are going to see the basis widen back out. I'm also worried we could see the basis weaken and widen out if flat­price decides it wants to start moving higher. In other words, you really need to be paying close attention to the basis the next couple of weeks, especially with another massive wave of winter weather headed our direction. Some end users that need the corn might be willing to bid up the basis! I've also heard of some fairly large producers hedging more new­crop price risk by purchasing the DEC19 $3.80 puts and selling the DEC19 $4.40 call to finance. On days when the market is moving higher you can get it done for even­money or perhaps even a slight credit. Obviously, it's no home run play, but it provides a floor at $3.80 and keeps most in the game for another year. It does however cap the upside at $4.40 per bushel. I've heard a few folks who want that $4.00 floor, buying the DEC19 $4.00 puts and selling (2) $4.50 calls to finance the position. This is a more cash intensive position on the margin side of the equation and can get costly to feed if the market jumps aggressively higher. Just make certain you are talking to your licensed individual advisor before jumping into any position on the board. Bottom­line, I like producer who are trying to think of ways to best reduce longer­term price risk. Remember, the front­end of the corn market hasn't traded above $4.45 since June of 2014. I know a lot of people who are saying that means we are overdue for a big rally and I hope they are right. But I also remember trading corn from late­1996 to late­2006, an entire decade, with prices trading between $1.75 and $3.35 per bushel. I know many will want to talk about ethanol demand not being in that equation, but I also watched the average yield grow by over +30% from 1992 to 2006 with a lot fewer acres being harvested when compared to today. I'm not saying prices are going a lot lower, but at the same time I'm not going to base my risk­management decisions on the thought that we are overdue for a rally. I told myself that same thing many times when I was younger and it cost me dearly. I also know, there's nothing more frustrating than paying for the same education over­and­over again.

Soybean traders continue to digest mixed headlines about Chinese demand and ongoing trade negotiations. The latest is that President Trump would entertain extending the deadline if we are close to making a deal. With this situation being so fluid and ever changing it's extremely difficult to trade the headlines. As I've pointed out on several occasions, the market continues to feel mostly range bound, with the higher end of the old­crop range being up near $9.50 and new­crop being just north of $9.70 per bushel. Remember, the highest close we've seen in the NOV19 new­crop contract since mid­June of last year is $9.66 per bushel. In other words, we are extremely close to the high­end of the range. We are also sitting on +900 million in ending stock and a ton of uncertainty involving the worlds #1 buyer of soybeans. I continue to like the thought of reducing any remaining old­crop risk on the rallies and at least a portion of estimated new­crop price risk. As a spec, I am more than likely fading any breakout to the upside. Wheat bulls are talking about lack of snow cover in the U.S. and a mother round of extremely cold conditions blanketing some key growing regions. As usual, winter­kill concerns and problems are extremely hard to see and calculate, hence the market can often be hesitant to bite on the headlines. I've personally been burned many times through the years trading winter­kill headlines. Let's just say the waters move extremely fast and can change direction in a hurry. From a demand perspective, U.S. wheat remains competitive but the bears continue to point to the burdensome balance sheet and no real aggressive export program, at least not as of yet. I continue to remain bullish and looking to add to my position on another leg lower. As a producer, I want to remain patient in regard to pricing more bushels.

> Corn Export Data Shows Brazil Has Year Over Year Decrease: Refinitiv's trade flow data shows Brazil exporting 23.5 MMT of corn in the 2017­18 marketing year that ended Jan. 31, a 23% drop from the year prior. With domestic prices higher and a smaller crop due to the drought, the numbers didn't come as that much of a surprise. I understand the nation’s corn shipments did pick up in January and the country is expected to maintain a relatively strong shipping pace this month.

> Biosev SA's Cane Season Suffers Losses: Biosev SA, the Brazilian sugar and ethanol maker controlled by commodities trader Louis Dreyfus, said its loss in the 2018/19 cane season through December rose 8.4% from the previous season to $240.40 million. Biosev on Tuesday reported a loss of $62 million in the third quarter ended in December, mostly due to the depreciation of the Brazilian currency. The loss was 17% smaller than in the same period a year earlier. Almost 90% of Biosev’s $1.6 billion in debt is dollar denominated. The company said the currency fluctuations have a non­cash effect, since the majority of the debt matures between 2021 and 2023, when the company plans to have enough cash to pay. (Source: Reuters)

> Soybean Crop in Brazil Could Shrink: Brazil's March survey of their soybean crop could reflect further declines. Keep in mind Brazil just cut 3.5 MMT from their estimate last month and I'm told that this month’s survey was carried out before a period of dry weather had ended, suggesting some additional damage to the crop from the drought is likely to show up in next month’s crop estimate.

> U.S. Crude Supplies Keep Rising in Cushing: Traders are bracing for increasing supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for benchmark crude futures, as unexpected refinery issues add to inventories that are already at the highest in more than a year. Inventories at Cushing rose to 42.6 million barrels in the week to Feb. 1, the highest level since early January 2018, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Problems at a key Midwest refinery, along with upcoming seasonal maintenance, have traders believing supplies will rise more than expected at Cushing in coming weeks. (Source: Yahoo)

> Greenland Could Start to Export Sand: In a rare positive spin off from global warming that is melting the island’s vast ice sheet and washing large amounts of sediment into the sea, Greenland could find itself exporting sand according to scientists. Mining of sand and gravel, widely used in the construction industry, could boost the economy for Greenland’s 56,000 population who have wide powers of self­rule within Denmark but rely heavily on subsidies from Copenhagen. Worldwide demand for sand totaled about 9.55 billion tonnes in 2017 with a market value of $99.5 billion and is projected to reach almost $481 billion in 2100, driven by rising demand and likely shortages, the study said. (Source: Reuters)

> Get A Rare Piece of Amazon History: The house where Jeff Bezos started Amazon from in its garage in 1994 is up for sale, reports the Seattle Times. According to the listing, the house at 10704 NE 28th Street in Bellevue, Washington, has three bedrooms, 1.75 baths, and is a total of 1,540 square feet and is listing for $1.5 million. Unfortunately, for those that would be interested in buying the house as a bit of tech memorabilia, is that the garage that Bezos worked in has been renovated since Bezos’s time there and likely doesn’t resemble what it looked like back when it was Amazon’s first HQ. (Source: Geekwire)

> El Chapo found guilty in US trial: Yesterday drug­lord Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán was found guilty on all charges against him by a New York jury. Chapo is notoriously known for his violence and distribution of Cocaine, Heroine, Methamphetamine, and Marijuana. The trial took 3 months to get a verdict and included 56 testimonies from witnesses and 34 hours of deliberation by the jury who unanimously voted guilty. Chapo's sentencing is scheduled for June 25th and is facing a mandatory life sentence.

> Take Me Out to the Ballgame... Without Peanuts: Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jack? Not anymore at Dunkin’ Donuts Park, where the Hartford (Connecticut) Yard Goats play. This season, the Class AA affiliate of the Colorado Rockies is becoming what's believed to be the first professional sports venue to go completely – and permanently –peanut­free. Peanuts are one of the most common and deadliest allergies in the U.S, especially among children. In the U.S., 2.2% of children and 1.8% of adults have peanut allergies, according to the Virginia­based advocacy group Food Allergy Research and Education. (Source: USA Today)

> Apple Planning All­You­Can­Read Subscription News Service: According to a report by The Wall Street Journal Apple is planning an all­you­can­read subscription news service in partnership with publishers. In addition, Apple plans to bundle news content from across media outlets then keep about half the revenue. The plan is expected to have a paid version of the Apple News app, which would cost about $10 per month and include news stories that are currently hidden behind publishers' paywalls. Keep in mind, the Wall Street Journal charges more than $20 a month for a package with various subscriptions.

> Nuro Raises $940 million from Softbank: Nuro has now raised more than $1 billion from investors including SoftBank, Greylock Partners, and Gaorong Capital. Nuro develops fully driverless vehicles on public roads focused on local deliveries. This recent raise will be used to expand its delivery service, add new partners, hire employees, and scale up its fleet of self­driving bots. Keep in mind, Nuro partnered in 2018 with Kroger to pilot a delivery service and has already licensed its self­driving technology to the autonomous trucking startup, Ike.

> You Can Ask Siri For Directions with Waze Now: Google's Waze updated its iPhone app on recently with support for Siri Shortcuts, which means users can ask Siri to open Waze and find directions somewhere without even picking up the phone. Users can do this by opening Waze on their iPhone > tap the search button on the bottom­left > choose the Settings button on the top­left of the app > select "Voice and sound" > choose "Siri Shortcuts" > choose the shortcut you want to create, like "Drive to work" > record yourself saying "drive to work > tap "Done."

> The Wealthiest and Poorest County in Every U.S. State: The average U.S. state is made up of 62 counties. With so many counties spread throughout each state in the nation, it’s not surprising that we can find counties that exemplify almost any part of the American experience. In this case, we’re comparing county­level data to look at the differences in economic opportunity within each state. More specifically, we are looking at the range of median household income, which is one proxy for the difference in economic status between counties. Today’s infographic comes to us from TitleMax, and it looks at the wealthiest and poorest counties in each individual U.S. state based on the measure of median household income. Here are the five states with the biggest disparity between rich and poor counties. Click HERE to see a larger graphic.

Northcentral Iowa ­ We are very small farm in Iowa and our costs are through the roof. We pay upwards of $300+ rent but there's nothing we can do about that because we have signed a several year lease. We don't really change our rotation from corn and soybeans. One year we are about 50 acres more soybeans and the next we are 50 acres more corn. The one thing we are trying to change is how much we pay for our macro fertilizers. With only being 850 acres not many retailers give us breaks but what we are in the process of doing is getting all our neighbors and throwing in together to get more leverage. Right now we are nearly 9000 acres of small farms and we are able to reduce our cost nearly 7% overall. There is 9 of us together and we are making it happen by working together, which I would encourage more guys doing this with their neighbors.

Central Kansas ­ I drive a semi from Nebraska through Texas in a big loop and all I have seen for the last several months is either water standing in fields or ice standing in fields. This week we are supposed to get back up to the mid­50's so we will see the ice melt at least a little. I have seen more soybeans fields standing between Texas and Nebraska then I have ever seen in the last 3 years. I was for sure they would have harvested them by now, but they are still standing. The beans are starting to lay down now, but they could easily still be harvested.

Central North Dakota – Our harvest is done, and we feel very lucky to be done but we have a neighbor that has a lot of acres of soybeans still standing. I’m not talking like what other people have mentioned, a field here or there, they have well over half their beans to harvest. At this point they will just hire the work done and hope for the best. I would bet the beans don’t make much by the time they harvest which will be April at the earliest now. A bunch of neighbors wanted to help but there was nothing they could do simply because it was just way to wet.

McCormick Working With IBM For New Spice Flavors: At some point in the future, when you order a pizza, you may be surprised at the taste — with odd ingredients added not by the ingenuity of the chef standing behind the counter twirling dough, but an artificial intelligence program with its own idea of a savory pie. That's because McCormick, the world’s largest spice company, has begun working with IBM Research to create new spices that humans might not consider. Among its latest concoctions — the cumin pizza, says Richard Goodwin, principal research scientist at IBM. From what I understand, the system, which is still in the testing phase, pulls from decades’ worth of data on spices to identify a base formula for a flavor category (such as a BBQ sauce). Then it incorporates new, sometimes surprising ingredients, as well as sales and trend forecasts, to make sure the new flavors perform well. Read more HERE to see the future of foods!

Rare George Washington Letter for Sale: Written a week after Washington told Alexander Hamilton that he would likely accept calls to assume the presidency, the letter came at a time when the Constitution was under attack. At the time there were reports that some states wanted to hold a second Convention that may have undermined the Constitution. The letter written to Richard Peters, speaker of the Pennsylvania House, is signed Sept. 7, 1788, and praises God for the ratification of the U.S. Constitution. I'm told the letter is priced at $140,000, and is up for sale at Ardmore, Pa.­based historical document dealer The Raab Collection. It's worth mentioning that Washington artifacts have attracted plenty of attention in recent memory, with a lock of the founding father’s hair, for example, recently selling at auction for $35,000. Read more HERE.

How do Your State Taxes Compare to the Rest of the Country? Property taxes, the single largest revenue source for local governments, are ratified, collected and spent almost entirely at the municipal level. Generally, property taxes are collected as a set share of the value of a given home or parcel of land. Depending on local laws, home or property values are assessed periodically based on estimated sale prices or they are valued using the sale price at the last acquisition of the property. As a result, the United States is a patchwork of property tax codes and depending on where you live, property taxes can be either a trivial expense or a major financial burden. From what I understand, on average, state and local governments in the United States collected $1,518 in property taxes per person during the 2015 fiscal year but in some parts of the country, per capita property tax collections were more than double that amount. To determine the states with the highest and lowest property taxes, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the effective property tax rate for all 50 states, from tax policy research organization the Tax Foundation. Check your state out HERE.

Solar Industry Trends Higher as Prices Continue Coming Down: Solar energy and the business surrounding it has seen rapid growth over the past eight years, a report released Tuesday reveals, even though there was a slight decline in employment over the past year. Today the industry employs 242,000 people, a 3.2% decline from 2017 that represents 8,000 lost jobs, but the industry has still experienced an overall surge since 2010, when it supported just over 93,000 jobs, booming in size by 159%. Costs have been falling and are expected to continue, particularly for the end user. According to one analysis by UBS claimed renewable energy will “effectively be free” by 2030. From what I'm hearing, installations in the future are likely to come in a variety of packages, beyond the simple panels­on­a­roof. I'm told Tesla plans to ramp up production of its solar roof in the coming year, which blends panels into tiles to make them seem invisible to the untrained eye. Another concept by Australian designer Ben Berwick generates power through folded window blinds, ideal for apartments. We keep hearing of great opportunities for producers to put some acres towards solar projects if you are in the right areas, definitely keep an ear open. Read more HERE.

South Korean Yacht Designer Chulhun Designing World's Largest Superyacht: Superyachts are getting super huge. The race to flex one’s wealth has been heating up with palatial ships aiming to outdo each other in size. Six years ago, German megayacht builder Lürssen delivered Azzam, the largest privately owned yacht in the world at 590 feet in length, to its owner (thought to be owned by United Arab Emirates President Khalifa bin Zayed al­Nahyan). It first set sail two years later. That yacht one­ upped previous record holder Roman Abramovich’s Bloom + Voss­built Eclipse, by almost 60 feet. And Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones just bought a 357­foot yacht that’s longer than a football field and comes with two helicopter pads. But South Korean yacht designer Chulhun Park is aiming to outdo them all—his latest design, the Valkyrie, promises to be the largest superyacht in the entire world at a whopping 751 feet. Read more HERE. I added a couple pics of the "Tron" as well below.

During 2019, iSelect, The VanTrump Report and The Yield Lab Institute are sponsoring a series of weekly webinars featuring the best in agriculture innovation. Agrifood Conversations is all about driving innovation and each month will highlight a specific theme, from biologicals to vertical farms, featuring emerging topics such as soil health, biologics, plant genetics, vertical farming, precision agriculture, herd health and management, and aquaculture, to name a few. Once a quarter, we’ll open up the conversation with a panel of experts on that month’s topic. Learn about new trends in ag, connect with industry leaders and discover new solutions.

Join us each Thursday at 3pm CT for Agrifood Conversations.

Learn More About "Mercaris"

Title: Bringing Market Intelligence to Sustainable Agriculture Time: Thursday, February 14 @ 3:00 pm CT

Agriculture, food, and their related industries are a massive market. They contributed a combined $1.05 trillion to U.S. GDP in 2016, a 5.7% share, with farms alone accounting for 1% of total GDP. Within the agriculture and food space, sales of organic products in the U.S. totaled a new record of $49.4 billion in 2017, up 6.4% from 2016. Organic labeled products accounted for 5.5% of the food sold in U.S retail channels. But, for decades, the industry has been isolated from this market, unable to perform analytics, gain insights from price and sales trends, and more. Mercaris makes it easy to gain insights into Organic and non­GMO commodity prices, perform analytics, and trade identity preserved commodities. Since 2013, Mercaris has been helping its customers capitalize on growing demand for organic & non­GMO foods by providing market access and services tailored to the needs of the identity­preserved agriculture industry. Mercaris focuses its data and services on identity­preserved commodities, including organic and non­GMO corn, soybean, meal, and wheat markets across all regions of the United States and Canada, and recently launched an organic dairy initiative. Mercaris also maintains an online Auctions Platform, a pioneering tool that enables buyers and sellers to find new markets and more profitability to trade organic and non­GMO commodities. Mercaris was formed to provide up­to­date, accurate information on market conditions for organic and non­GMO commodities. Second, the trading platform allows buyers and sellers to meet online and trade physical commodities. Learn how one company is bridging this gap with new tech­enabled tools at “Bringing Market Intelligence to Sustainable Agriculture,” a webinar to be held at 3 pm CT on February 14th featuring Kellee James and Jessie Bovay of Mercaris. Click HERE to sign up for a free trial to Mercaris!

Interesting Background on Lyft... and Why I Might Invest Ahead of Lyft's scheduled IPO this year, and to help me better understand if I should invest, I wanted to do some background research. Though Uber may be seen as the king of ride sharing, Lyft was actually the first one to the party. All the way back in 2007, when John Zimmer a new college graduate was browsing Facebook and noticed a guy named Logan Green posting on a mutual friend's Facebook page that he was launching a "carpooling network" called "Zimride," which he named after taking a trip to Zimbabwe in 2005. Green created "Zimride" in Santa Barbara, CA to provide long­ distance car­pool rides for college students by matching them with other students who were driving to the same areas. Zimmer decided to reach out to Green through their mutual friend because at the time he was trying to start a similar business that he was a calling "Waddle". He also wanted to know why the company was named "Zimride", he thought it was really odd considering his last name was Zimmer. The two agreed to meet in New York and hit it off right from the beginning. They decided to pool their efforts, agreed to run with "Zimride" rather than "Waddle", and felt their best chance of success was to be out in Silicon Valley. Zimmer had landed a great Wall Street job out of college, so his parents and friends thought he was nuts for leaving. Keep in mind, I tend to think everything happens for a reason... it was just three months after Zimmer left his secure job at Lehman Brothers to move out West that Lehman Brothers filled for bankruptcy and sparked one of the biggest bear markets in U.S. history. It seems like his leaving the world of finance has worked out for the best:) Zimride's main goal the first three years was to help college students get home for Christmas and Spring break by sharing rides with others from similar areas. Keep in mind, neither of these co­ founders took a salary the first three years and they lived in an apartment together that was also their office. After working together for 5 years in Silicon Valley they were able to raise $7.5 million in funding along with gaining marketshare at over 125 Universities. As the company kept growing Green and Zimmer built an app named "Zimride Instant," but the end product seemed to do a lot more than the core function of their current company. With the new app they were now able to offer lifts or rides to friends and family members all around the campus. They app also allowed people with spare time and a vehicle to give people lifts or rides when needed. Once Green and Zimmer realized what they had created, they changed their actual mission to building a company that would help improve people's lives all around the globe. They also sold "Zimride" to Enterprise for around $500 million. They used the money to start a new business called "Lyft", that would have a much larger vision, by focusing much more attention on short­distance ride­sharing. Green and Zimmer made the changes to their business model and had another new mobile app created that would allow drivers to match­up with paying riders within just three short weeks. Keep in mind, Uber was around at this time as well, but they had launched and positioned themselves as a "luxury car service" with black cars and limos that targeted the top 1%. In addition, ride­hailing was illegal at the time and only licensed drivers could pick up passengers on public streets. Uber even published a white paper in 2013 outlining the risks of "peer­ to­peer" ride­hailing, which was their attempt to get Lyft out of the market entirely. Then in 2014, Lyft was set to introduce their car­pooling product to the public, Uber had supposedly learned of this plan, pivoted their business model and announced a very similar service just days head of Lyft. I always thought Lyft was a knockoff of Uber, but perhaps it's the other way around? In 2014, Lyft launched in a total of 60 U.S. cities and the company introduced the Lyft Line, which allowed passengers to split fares on shared rides. In 2015, Lyft transitioned their business model introducing a small, glowing plastic dashboard mustache called "glowstache" as an alternative to the large fuzzy mustaches on the front of cars to target more riders. In 2016, Lyft introduced a new color­changing dashboard indicator called "Amp" that we see today sitting in Lyft cars. Thanks to clever marketing and an innovative approach, Lyft has seen massive growth in recent years, and the company is now nearing profitability. Today, Lyft operates in close to 400 U.S. cities in all 50 states and provides over 1 million rides per day giving the company a valuation of more than +$15 billion. In addition, Lyft continues to innovate as they venture into self­driving cars that offer autonomous rides in Las Vegas and acquired Motivate, which is the largest bike­sharing operator in the United States with nearly 30,000 bikes. The company has also said they are coming up with an easier and smoother way to split fares. I think Lyft has a bright future ahead with a vision to reinvent cities around people, not cars. Some of the early investors include Coatue Management, Alibaba Group, Andreessen Horowitz, Carl Icahn, General Motors, Fidelity Management, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Fund and Prince al­Waleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia. I should also note, Lyft retains 20% from drivers who applied before January 2016 and 25% from those who have applied to be drivers after January 2016. Although Lyft drivers are classified as independent contractors, Lyft also insures each driver with a $1 million commercial liability policy that is primary to a driver’s personal policy. They have also recently partnered with Allscripts to create a platform allowing healthcare providers to arrange rides for patients who lack transportation to appointments. Bottom­line, I like the Lyft story and the two guys that started the company and all the hard work and time they've invested. I'm excited about the IPO and will probably become an investor. Happiness has to be the ROI: I was sent this video the other day and found it to be very similar to my own thoughts about success and how to find peace and happiness. I've found that many people who are the happiest in life have a similar philosophy. Gary Vaynerchuk is self­made, coming from absolutely nothing to now being worth hundreds of millions. One quote I really took to heart in this video and I think everyone tends to lose sight of in life, "Happiness has to be the ROI. Happiness has to be what everybody tries to achieve. Happiness is what I chase." I also really like when he says, "This is an inside your head game, the quieter it gets inside your head, and if you get the framework right, you can go really fast..." and thats when you can win the game. Gary's language can be a bit rough, so if you are easily offended don't Click HERE to watch! ANSWER to riddle: It wanted better buns. About Us | Testimonials | Subscribe | Contact Us | Disclaimer | Update Profile

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