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The Syrian National Council: a Victorious Opposition?
THE INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST STUDIES IMES CAPSTONE PAPER SERIES THE SYRIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL: A VICTORIOUS OPPOSITION? JARED MARKLAND KRITTIKA LALWANEY MAY 2012 THE INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST STUDIES THE ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY COPYRIGHT OF THE AUTHOR(S), 2012 THE SYRIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL: A VICTORIOUS OPPOSITION? Jared Markland & Krittika Lalwaney Introduction The Syrian National Council (SNC) emerged as an opposition movement representing the democratic uprisings in Syria calling for regime change. The Assad regime’s forceful measures against Syrians have delegitimized the government and empowered the revolution. The success of the revolution, in overthrowing the regime hinges on the Syrian opposition’s ability to overcome its deficiencies. This paper analyzes the performance of the SNC by determining SNC success or failure to launch a successful opposition movement against the regime. The SNC’s probability of success in the overthrow of the regime is contingent on its ability to unify internally, obtain financial capacity, establish international recognition, and build internal popular support. Methodology The methods used to examine the prospects for success of the SNC as a viable opposition movement consist of comparative case studies and qualitative field research. We examined four case studies, including Nicaragua, Libya, El Salvador and Guatemala. These cases establish a set of core factors necessary for an opposition movement to succeed. The utilization of these factors allows us to create a comparative assessment of the overall performance of the SNC. Our qualitative fieldwork entailed a total of 32 interviews with current SNC members, Syrian activists, refugees, Free Syrian Army members, academic experts, and government officials. -
Syria: "Torture Was My Punishment": Abductions, Torture and Summary
‘TORTURE WAS MY PUNISHMENT’ ABDUCTIONS, TORTURE AND SUMMARY KILLINGS UNDER ARMED GROUP RULE IN ALEPPO AND IDLEB, SYRIA Amnesty International is a global movement of more than 7 million people who campaign for a world where human rights are enjoyed by all. Our vision is for every person to enjoy all the rights enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other international human rights standards. We are independent of any government, political ideology, economic interest or religion and are funded mainly by our membership and public donations. © Amnesty International 2016 Cover photo: Armed group fighters prepare to launch a rocket in the Saif al-Dawla district of the Except where otherwise noted, content in this document is licensed under a Creative Commons northern Syrian city of Aleppo, on 21 April 2013. (attribution, non-commercial, no derivatives, international 4.0) licence. © Miguel Medina/AFP/Getty Images https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode For more information please visit the permissions page on our website: www.amnesty.org Where material is attributed to a copyright owner other than Amnesty International this material is not subject to the Creative Commons licence. First published in 2016 by Amnesty International Ltd Peter Benenson House, 1 Easton Street London WC1X 0DW, UK Index: MDE 24/4227/2016 July 2016 Original language: English amnesty.org CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 METHODOLOGY 7 1. BACKGROUND 9 1.1 Armed group rule in Aleppo and Idleb 9 1.2 Violations by other actors 13 2. ABDUCTIONS 15 2.1 Journalists and media activists 15 2.2 Lawyers, political activists and others 18 2.3 Children 21 2.4 Minorities 22 3. -
Russian Private Military Companies: Continuity and Evolution of the Model
Russia Foreign Policy Papers Anna Borshchevskaya All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Author: Anna Borshchevskaya Eurasia Program Leadership Director: Chris Miller Deputy Director: Maia Otarashvili Edited by: Thomas J. Shattuck Designed by: Natalia Kopytnik © 2019 by the Foreign Policy Research Institute December 2019 COVER: Designed by Natalia Kopytnik. Our Mission The Foreign Policy Research Institute is dedicated to bringing the insights of scholarship to bear on the foreign policy and national security challenges facing the United States. It seeks to educate the public, teach teachers, train students, and offer ideas to advance U.S. national interests based on a nonpartisan, geopolitical perspective that illuminates contemporary international affairs through the lens of history, geography, and culture. Offering Ideas In an increasingly polarized world, we pride ourselves on our tradition of nonpartisan scholarship. We count among our ranks over 100 affiliated scholars located throughout the nation and the world who appear regularly in national and international media, testify on Capitol Hill, and are consulted by U.S. government agencies. Educating the American Public FPRI was founded on the premise that an informed and educated citizenry is paramount for the U.S. to conduct a coherent foreign policy. Through in-depth research and events on issues spanning the geopolitical spectrum, FPRI offers insights to help the public understand our volatile world. Championing Civic Literacy We believe that a robust civic education is a national imperative. -
Reforming the Syrian Arab Army: Russia’S Vision Yury Barmin, RIAC
Discussion Paper (4) Reforming the Syrian Arab Army: Russia’s vision Yury Barmin, RIAC Discussion paper for the workshop on: “The emerging security dynamics and the political settlement in Syria”, Syracuse, Italy, 18-19 October 2018 1 The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) is an international foundation established in 1995, with 52-member states, for the primary purpose of promoting peace, security and international cooperation through executive education, applied policy research and dialogue. The GCSP trains government officials, diplomats, military officers, international civil servants and NGO and private sector staff in pertinent fields of international peace and security. Omran for Strategic Studies An independent think tank and policy centre focusing on presenting an objective understanding of Syria and the region to become a reference for public policies impacting the region. Omran began in November 2013 in Istanbul, Turkey. It publishes studies and policy briefs on Syrian and regional affairs in the areas of politics, economic development and local administration. Omran also conducts round-table discussions, seminars and workshops that promote a more systematic and methodical culture of decision making among the future leaders of Syria. Omran’s work supports decision-making mechanisms, provides practical solutions and policy recommendations to decision-makers, identifies challenges within the Syrian context, and foresees scenarios and alternative solutions. Yury Barmin Yury Barmin, is the Director for the Middle East and North Africa at MPG, a Moscow-based political consulting firm. He is a fellow at the Russian International Affairs Council covering the Middle East and North Africa, Moscow’s policy towards the region as well as the conflict in Syria. -
The Alawite Dilemma in Homs Survival, Solidarity and the Making of a Community
STUDY The Alawite Dilemma in Homs Survival, Solidarity and the Making of a Community AZIZ NAKKASH March 2013 n There are many ways of understanding Alawite identity in Syria. Geography and regionalism are critical to an individual’s experience of being Alawite. n The notion of an »Alawite community« identified as such by its own members has increased with the crisis which started in March 2011, and the growth of this self- identification has been the result of or in reaction to the conflict. n Using its security apparatus, the regime has implicated the Alawites of Homs in the conflict through aggressive militarization of the community. n The Alawite community from the Homs area does not perceive itself as being well- connected to the regime, but rather fears for its survival. AZIZ NAKKASH | THE ALAWITE DILEMMA IN HOMS Contents 1. Introduction ...........................................................1 2. Army, Paramilitary Forces, and the Alawite Community in Homs ...............3 2.1 Ambitions and Economic Motivations ......................................3 2.2 Vulnerability and Defending the Regime for the Sake of Survival ..................3 2.3 The Alawite Dilemma ..................................................6 2.4 Regime Militias .......................................................8 2.5 From Popular Committees to Paramilitaries ..................................9 2.6 Shabiha Organization ..................................................9 2.7 Shabiha Talk ........................................................10 2.8 The -
"Al-Assad" and "Al Qaeda" (Day of CBS Interview)
This Document is Approved for Public Release A multi-disciplinary, multi-method approach to leader assessment at a distance: The case of Bashar al-Assad A Quick Look Assessment by the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA)1 Part II: Analytical Approaches2 February 2014 Contributors: Dr. Peter Suedfeld (University of British Columbia), Mr. Bradford H. Morrison (University of British Columbia), Mr. Ryan W. Cross (University of British Columbia) Dr. Larry Kuznar (Indiana University – Purdue University, Fort Wayne), Maj Jason Spitaletta (Joint Staff J-7 & Johns Hopkins University), Dr. Kathleen Egan (CTTSO), Mr. Sean Colbath (BBN), Mr. Paul Brewer (SDL), Ms. Martha Lillie (BBN), Mr. Dana Rafter (CSIS), Dr. Randy Kluver (Texas A&M), Ms. Jacquelyn Chinn (Texas A&M), Mr. Patrick Issa (Texas A&M) Edited by: Dr. Hriar Cabayan (JS/J-38) and Dr. Nicholas Wright, MRCP PhD (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Copy Editor: Mr. Sam Rhem (SRC) 1 SMA provides planning support to Combatant Commands (CCMD) with complex operational imperatives requiring multi-agency, multi-disciplinary solutions that are not within core Service/Agency competency. SMA is accepted and synchronized by Joint Staff, J3, DDSAO and executed by OSD/ASD (R&E)/RSD/RRTO. 2 This is a document submitted to provide timely support to ongoing concerns as of February 2014. 1 This Document is Approved for Public Release 1 ABSTRACT This report suggests potential types of actions and messages most likely to influence and deter Bashar al-Assad from using force in the ongoing Syrian civil war. This study is based on multidisciplinary analyses of Bashar al-Assad’s speeches, and how he reacts to real events and verbal messages from external sources. -
The Fluctuating Relationship Between Russia and the Wagner Group
THE FLUCTUATING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE WAGNER GROUP by Preston Feinberg A research study submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirement for the degree of Master of Arts in Global Security Studies Baltimore, Maryland December 2020 © 2020 Preston Feinberg All Rights Reserved Abstract This study analyzes how the Wagner Group’s behavior in various geographic locations has affected their fluctuating relationship with the Russian government and how it has changed over time. This research is important for policymakers and scholars alike because it provides insight into how the Russians conduct their foreign policy to accomplish their geopolitical objectives. The research reviews the Russian-Wagner relationship through the prism of the principal-agent theory. The study hypothesized that as the Wagner Group has become more dispersed in various locations around the world that it would act more independently of the stated objectives of the Kremlin. The data used for this research illuminated the complicated relationship between the Wagner Group and the Russian Ministry of Defense. The study further hypothesized that there would be a greater deal of turmoil within the principal-agent relationship between Russia and the Wagner Group than the data ended up showing. This study has shown that the Kremlin and Putin himself find many more benefits than costs by using the Wagner Group to achieve his foreign policy goals. Looking into the future, one should expect to see the continued proliferation of Private Military Companies (PMCs) like the Wagner Group to continue operating on behalf of or in support of the Russian government’s geopolitical objectives. -
Observations on the Air War in Syria Lt Col S
Views Observations on the Air War in Syria Lt Col S. Edward Boxx, USAF His face was blackened, his clothes in tatters. He couldn’t talk. He just point- ed to the flames, still about four miles away, then whispered: “Aviones . bombas” (planes . bombs). —Guernica survivor iulio Douhet, Hugh Trenchard, Billy Mitchell, and Henry “Hap” Arnold were some of the greatest airpower theorists in history. Their thoughts have unequivocally formed the basis of G 1 modern airpower. However, their ideas concerning the most effective use of airpower were by no means uniform and congruent in their de- termination of what constituted a vital center with strategic effects. In fact the debate continues to this day, and one may draw on recent con- flicts in the Middle East to make observations on the topic. Specifi- cally, this article examines the actions of one of the world’s largest air forces in a struggle against its own people—namely, the rebels of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). As of early 2013, the current Syrian civil war has resulted in more than 60,000 deaths, 2.5 million internally displaced persons, and in ex- cess of 600,000 refugees in Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon.2 Presi- dent Bashar al-Assad has maintained his position in part because of his ability to control the skies and strike opposition targets—including ci- vilians.3 The tactics of the Al Quwwat al-Jawwiyah al Arabiya as- Souriya (Syrian air force) appear reminiscent of those in the Spanish Civil War, when bombers of the German Condor Legion struck the Basque market town of Guernica, Spain, on 26 April 1937. -
Policy Notes March 2021
THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY MARCH 2021 POLICY NOTES NO. 100 In the Service of Ideology: Iran’s Religious and Socioeconomic Activities in Syria Oula A. Alrifai “Syria is the 35th province and a strategic province for Iran...If the enemy attacks and aims to capture both Syria and Khuzestan our priority would be Syria. Because if we hold on to Syria, we would be able to retake Khuzestan; yet if Syria were lost, we would not be able to keep even Tehran.” — Mehdi Taeb, commander, Basij Resistance Force, 2013* Taeb, 2013 ran’s policy toward Syria is aimed at providing strategic depth for the Pictured are the Sayyeda Tehran regime. Since its inception in 1979, the regime has coopted local Zainab shrine in Damascus, Syrian Shia religious infrastructure while also building its own. Through youth scouts, and a pro-Iran I proxy actors from Lebanon and Iraq based mainly around the shrine of gathering, at which the banner Sayyeda Zainab on the outskirts of Damascus, the Iranian regime has reads, “Sayyed Commander Khamenei: You are the leader of the Arab world.” *Quoted in Ashfon Ostovar, Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (2016). Khuzestan, in southwestern Iran, is the site of a decades-long separatist movement. OULA A. ALRIFAI IRAN’S RELIGIOUS AND SOCIOECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IN SYRIA consolidated control over levers in various localities. against fellow Baathists in Damascus on November Beyond religious proselytization, these networks 13, 1970. At the time, Iran’s Shia clerics were in exile have provided education, healthcare, and social as Muhammad Reza Shah Pahlavi was still in control services, among other things. -
The Syrian Conflict: a Systems Conflict Analysis
The ARK Group is a network of stabilisation and conflict transformation The Syrian conflict: consultancies that provides research- KDF Documents informed analysis and policy recommendations, as well as evidence- A systems conflict analysis based interventions in conflict-affected states on behalf of public and private sector clients. Working with and through local communities, we seek to understand and then mitigate the negative effects of conflict and instability to enhance community safety and promote human security, development and economic opportunity. Cover © Lens of a Young Damascene Back-cover © Lens of a Young Damascene ARK Group DMCC February 2016 The Syrian conflict: A systems conflict analysis ARK Group DMCC February 2016 ARK is a consultancy company specialising in the provision of policy-relevant research and the design and management of conflict prevention and transforma- tion programmes to prevent and mitigate instability and promote positive social change and development. For more information about ARK or this paper, please contact: [email protected]. Copyright © 2016 ARK GROUP DMCC CONTENTS 4 Acronyms 5 Acknowledgements 6 Executive summary 8 Introduction 8 Understanding the Syrian conflict 10 Analytical framework and report structure 11 What is a systems conflict analysis? 11 How to read this report 3 12 Brief contextual overview 16 Stakeholders analysis: conflict actors and interests 16 Local stakeholders: pro-regime 19 Local stakeholders: pro-opposition 22 Local stakeholders: the Islamic State in Iraq and the -
1 HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH/MIDDLE EAST OVERVIEW Human
HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH/MIDDLE EAST OVERVIEW Human Rights Developments Human rights violations were increasingly out in the open in 1995. Many Middle East governments decided they did not have to go to great lengths to conceal abusive practices in their battle against Islamist opponents and "enemies of the peace process." With the international community largely turning a blind eye, governments facing Islamist opposition groupsCviolent and nonviolentCliterally got away with murder. The violent groups they confronted were equally bold and bloodyCdeliberately killing civilians to punish or intimidate those who withheld support or were related, in any way, to the government. The Arab-Israeli peace process, jolted by the assassination of Israel's Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, dominated the political picture. Elsewhere in the region the aftermath of international armed conflicts and unresolved internal conflicts took other turns, with northeast Iraq the scene of internecine warfare between Kurdish groups and a Turkish invasion; continuing violence in and around Israeli-occupied south Lebanon; Iraq's failure to release information on the almost one thousand prisoners unaccounted for since it withdrew from Kuwait; Yemen's actions to stifle criticism in the wake of its civil war; and more delays in the process to resolve the seemingly intractable dispute between Morocco and the Polisario Front over the status of the Western Sahara. Nowhere was the conflict between an Islamist movement and a secular government more deadly than in Algeria, where tens of thousands died. Armed Islamist opposition groups in Algeria, as well as in Egypt and the Israeli-occupied territories, violated basic humanitarian norms by deliberately targeting civilians. -
Download the Full Report
HUMAN “Maybe We Live RIGHTS and Maybe We Die” WATCH Recruitment and Use of Children by Armed Groups in Syria “Maybe We Live and Maybe We Die” Recruitment and Use of Children by Armed Groups in Syria Copyright © 2014 Human Rights Watch All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 978-1-62313-1425 Cover design by Rafael Jimenez Human Rights Watch defends the rights of people worldwide. We scrupulously investigate abuses, expose the facts widely, and pressure those with power to respect rights and secure justice. Human Rights Watch is an independent, international organization that works as part of a vibrant movement to uphold human dignity and advance the cause of human rights for all. Human Rights Watch is an international organization with staff in more than 40 countries, and offices in Amsterdam, Beirut, Berlin, Brussels, Chicago, Geneva, Goma, Johannesburg, London, Los Angeles, Moscow, Nairobi, New York, Paris, San Francisco, Sydney, Tokyo, Toronto, Tunis, Washington DC, and Zurich. For more information, please visit our website: http://www.hrw.org JUNE 2014 ISBN: 978-1-62313-1425 “Maybe We Live and Maybe We Die” Recruitment and Use of Children by Armed Groups in Syria Summary ......................................................................................................................... 1 Recommendations ........................................................................................................... 5 To All Armed Groups Fighting in Syria .......................................................................................