UNCHARTED WATERS IN A NEW ERA: AN ACTOR-CENTERED CONSTRUCTIVIST LIBERAL APPROACH TO THE EAST CHINA SEA DISPUTES, 2003-2008 Senan Fox A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD at the University of St. Andrews 2011 Full metadata for this item is available in Research@StAndrews:FullText at: http://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/ Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2080 This item is protected by original copyright Uncharted Waters in a New Era: An Actor-Centered Constructivist Liberal Approach to the East China Sea Disputes, 2003 - 2008 PhD thesis submitted to the School of International Relations, University of St.Andrews Senan Fox August 18 th 2011 1 Table of Contents Acknowledgements 11 Acronyms 15 List of Maps, Illustrations, Surveys, and Photos 17 Abstract 20 Chapter 1 – Background to the Resurgence of the East China Sea Disputes after August 2003 21 Research Question 21 Contexts 23 Security Context 24 Geographical Context 25 Legal Context 28 The Pinnacle (Senkaku/Diaoyu) Islands 29 The PRC’s Claims vis-à-vis the Pinnacle Islands 31 Japan’s Claims vis-à-vis the Pinnacle Islands 32 The Median Line and EEZs issues 33 Domestic Politics and Popular Sentiment 37 Domestic Politics and Popular Sentiment in Japan 39 Domestic Politics and Popular Sentiment in China 41 A Survey of the Literature 43 Legal and Sovereignty-related complexities of the ECS disputes 44 2 Security and Strategic Issues in the East China Sea 47 Maritime Regimes and Conflict Prevention in the East China Sea 51 Domestic Politics and their Influence on Approaches to the ECS 53 The post-2002 resurgence in the ECS disputes 56 Summary of Literature 61 Articulating the Research Question 63 Why the East China Sea Disputes Matter 65 Chapter Outlines 69 Chapter 2 – Theoretical Perspectives 72 Introduction 72 Trying on Realism 73 Defining Realism 73 Realism and the 2003 to 2008 ECS Disputes 75 Strategic and Security Behaviour in the ECS 75 Realism and the Economic and Material Value of the ECS 80 Realism’s Strengths and Weaknesses 83 Neo-liberalism 86 Defining Neo-liberalism 86 The Strengths and Weaknesses of a Neo-Liberal Approach 86 Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) 89 3 Defining Foreign Policy Analysis 89 The Strengths and Weaknesses of Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) 90 Liberalism 93 Defining Liberalism 93 The Variations within the Liberal School 95 The Advantages of Liberal Interpretations 95 Digging Deeper: Applying Actor-Centred Constructivist Liberalism 96 The Advantages and Disadvantages of Rationalist Liberal Perspectives 99 The Advantages and Disadvantages of a Structure-Centred Liberal Perspective 101 The Advantages of an Actor-Centred Liberal Perspective 102 The Advantages of a Constructivist Liberal Perspective 104 China and an Actor-Centred Constructivist Liberal Perspective 106 Japan and an Actor-Centred Constructivist Liberal Perspective 110 Summary 114 Research Design 115 Introduction 115 Method of Inquiry 115 Non-Interview Data 116 Interview Data 117 Interview Method 119 Benefits of Interviews as a Data Source 119 The Interviewees 120 4 Research Constraints 122 Chapter Three - Leading Up to 2003: Domestic Politics and Bilateral Relations 125 Introduction 125 Chapter Outline 126 China 128 The Political and Institutional System 128 Elite Politics and Factionalism 136 Domestic Politics and Japan-related Issues in the PRC 138 1949 – 1989: A More Manageable Relationship 138 The East China Sea disputes 141 The First Wave of Protests (1968 – 1979) 141 1979 – 1989: Sensible and Pragmatic Relations 143 Domestic Politics and Japan-related Issues in the PRC in the 1980s 144 1989 – 1995:China after Tiananmen - A Dramatic Deterioration in Relations 146 The East China Sea disputes in the early 1990s 148 More Challenging Divisions within the Chinese Polity 150 A More Vocal Role for Popular Sentiment, and Public and Intellectual Opinion 151 Two Conflicting Legitimation Strategies 154 A More Concerted Exploitation of Japan-Related Issues 155 5 1996 – 2001: Navigating Unfamiliar and Tempestuous Waters 159 Confrontation over Taiwan and the East China Sea 159 Domestic Reactions and Pressures 160 Balancing and Managing the Domestic Response 163 Balancing and Managing the Relationship with Japan after 1996 165 A Test for the Leadership’s Balancing Strategy – Some High Profile Incidents 166 Lessons Learned by the Leadership 170 Perceived Negative Gestures from Japan 172 Japan 174 The Political and Institutional System in Japan 174 1945 – 1993: Domestic Politics under the ‘1955 System ’ 175 1993 – Present: The Demise of the ‘1955 System’ and Its Consequences 178 The Japanese Media in the 1990s 181 Summary Domestic Politics and China-related Issues in the Japan 183 1945 – 1989: Stable Management, Unrivalled Power 183 Approaches to the East China Sea in the 1970s 184 Sturdy Diplomatic and Economic Ties 185 Approaches to the East China Sea in the 1980s 188 1989 – 1995: From the Tiananmen Massacre to the Taiwan Crisis 189 Changing Perceptions of the East China Sea disagreements 191 6 More Vocal Calls for a more Assertive Japan 192 Developments Affecting Japan’s Sense of Security and Perceptions of China 193 Relations by the Mid-1990s – A Watershed Period 195 The Inter-linkage between Politics and Nationalism in Japan 198 1996 – 2001: Domestic Constraints, Lost Opportunities 201 Renewed Frictions in the East China Sea 201 The China Card and Calls for a Harder Line 203 China’s Rise and Japanese Insecurities 205 More Difficult to Adopt a Moderate Line 208 Disagreements from the late 1990s until 2001 211 Chapter Summary 213 Chapter Four – East China Sea Lows and Highs: August 2003 - June 2008 216 Introduction 216 China 218 Context for the Re-emergence of the ECS Disputes, 2001 – 2003 218 Gradual Power Transfer 220 Complex Considerations within the Elite 221 Hu Jintao’s Difficult Position 222 A Resurgence in Popular anti-Japanese Sentiment 226 Pressure from the New Media 231 Other challenges to a decisive response 233 A Period of Discontent 235 7 Worsening Relations: 2004 and 2005 239 Hu’s balancing act 244 2005 – the Nadir of Bilateral Ties 245 Trouble at Sea 251 The Road to ‘Principled Consensus’: 2006 to 2008 259 The New Starting Point 262 The Signing of the ‘Principled Consensus’ on the East China Sea 266 Summary Survey of Perspectives and Opinions in China 270 Summary 275 Japan 276 Unfavourable Conditions: 2001 – 2003 276 Koizumi enters the stage 276 Popular and Elite level Sentiment toward China 283 The East China Sea disputes re-surface 286 The Relationship Hits Rock-Bottom: 2004 – 2005 288 Japan Runs Out of Patience 288 2005 – Hitting an All-Time Low 293 Cooler Heads Prevail 302 The Path to ‘Principled Consensus’ 2006-2008 303 8 Summary Survey of Perspectives and Opinions in Japan 310 Summary 315 Chapter Summary 316 Chapter Five – Conclusion: Beyond ‘Principled Consensus 318 Summary and Overview of Thesis 318 Policy Implications and Future Research 327 The East China Sea Disputes since June 2008 327 Wider Bilateral Challenges 330 Domestic Political Challenges 334 Maritime Practice and Legal Ambiguities 337 Closing Thoughts 340 Appendices 343 Chronology of Events 343 Maps, Figures, Illustrations, Surveys and Photos 363 List of Interviewees 389 Bibliography 396 9 Acknowledgements The decision to pursue a Ph.D. in International Relations by analyzing an issue as contentious, complicated, and detailed as the East China Sea disputes was not one taken lightly nor was it a decision taken in haste. In fact, the choice of researching these disputes and their relationship with domestic politics and popular sentiment was a consequence of a number of influences which commenced with my own experiences of living and working in Japan from 2002 to 2005. As readers will see, this period marked one of the most serious downturns in Sino-Japanese relations since the end of the Second World War. It was in this context that the East China Sea disputes similarly took a turn for the worse and even came close to conflict by September 2005 when I departed Japan to begin a teaching job in London. The inter-relationship between domestic politics and popular sentiment and more negative developments surrounding these maritime disputes convinced me to research this important territorial issue as my thesis topic. Further informal conversations with scholars who were kind enough to give up their free time to meet me such as Dr. Declan Downey of UCD and Dr.Keun-Wook Paik of Chatham House, helped me to trim and hone into some of the central issues that lie at the heart of the ECS disagreements. This benefitted me in advance of commencing my Ph.D. at the University of Saint Andrews (UK) in September 2006. From that time until the completion of my thesis in 2010, I owe a great deal of gratitude to a number of people whose assistance, patience, and kindness amid their own hectic schedules and demands was of tremendous help to me in the course of executing and finalising my work. First and foremost in this regard are two people whom I can’t thank enough. They are my first supervisor at the School of International Relations at the University of Saint Andrews, Professor Karin Fierke, and also Dr. Mary Jane Fox, an independent researcher (not related ) who was introduced to me by Professor Fierke. My gratitude for their guidance cannot be adequately expressed. However, a big ‘thank you’ goes out to Karin who became my first supervisor in the revisions period from August 2010 until the present day. While her area of expertise was not related to China and Japan, Karin’s kind help and renowned expertise in the field of international relations was instrumental in getting my thesis to where it is today, providing me with detailed and constructive advice and suggestions, compelling me to discard the chaff and to pinpoint a clear line of argument, helping me to shape the methodological foundations and theoretical arguments within the thesis, and being there as a receptive source of support over nearly three years.