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1. the Politics of Legacy UC San Diego UC San Diego Electronic Theses and Dissertations Title Succeeding in politics : dynasties in democracies Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1dv7f7bb Authors Smith, Daniel Markham Smith, Daniel Markham Publication Date 2012 Peer reviewed|Thesis/dissertation eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Succeeding in Politics: Dynasties in Democracies A Dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Daniel Markham Smith Committee in charge: Professor Kaare Strøm, Chair Professor Gary W. Cox Professor Gary C. Jacobson Professor Ellis S. Krauss Professor Krislert Samphantharak Professor Matthew S. Shugart 2012 ! Daniel Markham Smith, 2012 All rights reserved. The Dissertation of Daniel Markham Smith is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm and electronically: Chair University of California, San Diego 2012 iii DEDICATION To my mother and father, from whom I have inherited so much. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Signature page……………………………………………………………………………iii Dedication………………………………………………………………………………...iv Table of Contents………………………………………………………………………….v List of Abbreviations………………………….………………………………………....vii List of Figures……………………………...……………………………………………viii List of Tables……………………………………………………………………………...x Acknowledgments……………………………………………………………………….xii Vita………………………………………………………………………………………xv Abstract………………………………………………………………………………….xvi 1. The Politics of Legacy ................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Why Dynasties?..................................................................................................... 5 1.2. The Impact of Legacy Politics on Democracy .................................................... 23 1.3. Organization of the Dissertation.......................................................................... 29 2. A Theory of Legacy Recruitment in Democracies .................................................... 32 2.1. The Causes of Legacy Politics ............................................................................ 32 2.2. Electoral System Context: Candidate-Centered Elections .................................. 42 2.3. Party Organization Context: Decentralized Candidate Selection........................ 48 2.4. Candidate-Level Context: The Inherited Incumbency Advantage...................... 52 3. Dynasties in Comparative Perspective ...................................................................... 57 3.1. Case Selection and Data...................................................................................... 61 3.2. Patterns in Legacy Politics in the Parties of Eight Democracies ........................ 65 3.3. Discussion ........................................................................................................... 80 4. Japan: Land of the Rising Sons?................................................................................ 83 4.1. Historical Development of Legacy Politics in Japan .......................................... 88 4.2. Elections and Candidate Recruitment from 1947-1993 ...................................... 92 4.3. Legacy Recruitment under the SNTV System .................................................. 106 4.4. Discussion: History or Culture as Alternative Explanations?........................... 122 v 5. Electoral and Party Reform in Japan ....................................................................... 125 5.1. The 1994 Electoral System Reform & Expectations......................................... 131 5.2. Party Responses to Reform ............................................................................... 137 5.3. The Impact of Electoral and Party Reform on Legacy Recruitment................. 148 5.4. Change in Supply or Change in Demand? ........................................................ 158 5.5. Discussion ......................................................................................................... 163 5.6. Acknowledgments............................................................................................. 165 6. The Inherited Incumbency Advantage..................................................................... 167 6.1. The Incumbency Advantage as a Heritable Asset?........................................... 170 6.2. The Inherited Incumbency Advantage in MMD Elections ............................... 176 6.3. The Inherited Incumbency Advantage in SMD Elections................................. 196 6.4. Discussion ......................................................................................................... 201 6.5. Acknowledgments............................................................................................. 202 7. Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 203 8. Appendix.................................................................................................................. 209 9. Bibliography ............................................................................................................ 211 vi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS CLPR Closed-List Proportional Representation DM Diet Member DPJ Democratic Party of Japan DSP Democratic Socialist Party FPTP First-Past-The-Post JCP Japan Communist Party JSP Japan Socialist Party LDI Liberal Democrat-affiliated Independent LDP Liberal Democratic Party MMD Multi-Member District MMM Mixed Member Majoritarian MP Member of Parliament OLPR Open-List Proportional Representation PVEA Personal Vote-Earning Attribute PVEB Personal Vote-Earning Behavior SDPJ Social Democratic Party of Japan SMD Single-Member District SNTV Single Non-Transferable Vote STV Single Transferable Vote TD Teachta Dála, Deputy in the Irish Dáil vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Percentage of Legacy MPs in the Canadian House of Commons.................. 10! Figure 1.2: Percentage of Legacy Members of the U.S. Congress................................... 12! Figure 1.3: Percentage of Legacy TDs in the Irish Dáil ................................................... 13! Figure 1.4: Percentage of Legacy DMs in the Japanese House of Representatives ......... 16! Figure 2.1: A Model of Candidate Recruitment ............................................................... 38! Figure 2.2: Hypothesized Effect of the Electoral and Recruitment Contexts on the Value of the Inherited Incumbency Advantage................................................................... 52! Figure 2.3: A Model of Legacy Recruitment.................................................................... 55! Figure 3.1: Percentage of Legacy MPs in Eight Democracies ......................................... 67! Figure 3.2: The Relationship Between Candidate-Centered Elections and the Percentage of Legacy MPs in the Parties of Eight Democracies ................................................ 73! Figure 3.3: The Relationship Between Party Centralization in Candidate Selection and the Percentage of Legacy MPs in the Parties of Eight Democracies.............................. 77! Figure 4.1: Legacy Candidates and DMs in the LDP and Among All Parties ................. 85! Figure 4.2: Percentage of Districts with Intraparty Competition...................................... 94! Figure 4.3: Percentage of Districts with Intra-Camp Competition................................... 97! Figure 4.4: Legacy and Hereditary Candidates in the Three Main Parties..................... 108! Figure 4.5: Legacy and Hereditary Candidates in the Three Main Party Camps ........... 109! Figure 4.6: Predicted Probability of New Dynasty Forming .......................................... 121! Figure 5.1: All Candidate Nominations Post-Reform..................................................... 149! Figure 5.2: New Candidate Nominations Post-Reform .................................................. 150! Figure 5.3: New Candidate Nominations in the LDP..................................................... 152! viii Figure 5.4: 2009 Pre-Election Candidate Survey Responses to the Question: Should Hereditary Succession be Restricted?..................................................................... 156! Figure 6.1: The Emergence of Two-Party Competition in Japan's SMDs: Top Two Parties' Vote and Seat Share, 1996-2009................................................................ 175! Figure 6.2: Probability of Electoral Victory for First-Time Non-Legacy and Hereditary Successors, by Jiban Strength................................................................................. 190! ix LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1: Electoral System, Degree of Centralization in Candidate Selection, and the Mean Percentage of Legacy MPs in the Parties of Seven Democracies................... 78! Table 3.2: The Effect of Institutions on the Percentage of Legacy MPs in a Party.......... 80! Table 4.1: LDP Ex-Post Nominations and Post-Election Strength in the House of Representatives, 1958-1993...................................................................................... 96! Table 4.2: Party Variation in Intraparty/Intra-Camp Competition and Selection Process ................................................................................................................................. 105! Table 4.3: First-Time Legacy and Hereditary Candidates in the House of Representatives, 1947-1993 ..............................................................................................................
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