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CERIS Geopolitic & Geostrategic Review/CERIS Revue Géopolitique Centre Européen de Recherches Internationales & Stratégiques Special Issue Japan Guest Editors Jean-Marie Bouissou & Guibourg Delamotte Spring 2011 Table of Contents Introduction « Le Japon : une puissance déclinante ? Quelles conséquences géopolitiques ? »….……..…......…p. 3 Jean-Marie Bouissou I Defence and Security « Japan as civilian power, soft power, or normal military power »…………………….……….….p. 14 Christopher W. Hugues “Managing the risks of entrapment and abandonment in the U.S-Japan security alliance”.......….p. 20 Yuko Kawato « L’internationalisation des Forces d’Autodéfense : une épopée sans épilogue ? » ………….…….p. 28 Guibourg Delamotte « Les forces armées japonaises : une montée en puissance sous contraintes ».…………….……..p. 34 Michel Theoval « Japan’s Sapce Policy : from technology to strategy ».................................……………..……..p. 46 Kazuto Suzuki II Japan in Asia and in the world « Japan’s policy towards North Korea since 2002 »..............................................................…..p. 63 Narushinge Michishita « Le rapprochement stratégique du Japon et de l’Inde : vers une coalition des démocraties »…….p. 71 Céline Pajon “Le Japon et l’Afrique : la culture de l’incomplétude”……………………………..……....…..p. 80 Roland Marchal « Une puissance sympathique ? Illusions et potentialités du soft power en Asie» ………….....…..p. 91 Jean-Marie Bouissou Introduction 2 Centre Européen de Recherches Internationales & Stratégiques Le Japon, puissance déclinante ? Quelles conséquences Géopolitiques ? Jean-Marie Bouissou Directeur de recherche au Centre d‘Etudes & de Recherche Internationales Sciences- Po Paris. Jean-Marie Bouissou est l‘auteur de Japan: The Burden of Success (Londres, Hurst & C°, 2002), Quand les sumos apprennent à danse. Le nouveau modèle japonais (Paris, Fayard, 2004). Il a dirigé, entre autres, Après la crise Les économies asiatiques à l’épreuve de la mondialisation (Paris, Khartala, 2003), et Le Japon contemporain (Paris, Fayard, 2007) Email : [email protected] Traumatisé par la crise qui l‘ébranle depuis le tsunami financier de 2008, l‘Occident est hanté par le spectre de son déclin face à une Chine rétablie dans sa puissance passée et à la cohorte des pays émergents. Le Japon l‘est plus encore, miné depuis vingt ans par la dépression économique, l‘instabilité politique, la destruction de son modèle social et le déclin démographique. Au-delà de l‘Archipel, cette question est importante pour les équilibres géopolitiques et géostratégiques à l‘échelle régional, et même planétaire. En effet, depuis plus de soixante ans, le Japon constitue le point d‘appui le mieux assuré des forces américaines présentes sur le théâtre asiatique. Il a été une base logistique essentielle dans la guerre de Corée et celle du Vietnam. Aujourd‘hui, dans une région où la guerre froide a laissé derrière elle des fronts où le feu couve toujours, les 45 000 soldats, aviateurs et marins présents dans les 60 bases et autres installations américaines au Japon seraient les premiers à intervenir, en cas de besoin, dans la péninsule coréenne ou dans le détroit de Taiwan. Plus encore, alors que le Pentagone craint que la Chine devienne à moyen terme une force militaire capable de défier celles des Etats-Unis, au moins sur le théâtre régional, l‘allié japonais est précieux. Comme base logistique, mais aussi désormais comme un partenaire dont les forces armées – bien que leurs missions se limitent toujours officiellement à la défense – se sont renforcées et dotées d‘une capacité de projection significative1. Au plan géopolitique, le Japon est la seule puissance régionale capable de partager le leadership avec la Chine dans une Asie qui avance, bon gré mal gré, vers davantage d‘intégration2. Aux yeux des peuples de la région, les Etats-Unis n‘ont pas leur mot à dire dans cette affaire. L‘Inde et l‘Australie, que Washington aimerait rapprocher de Tokyo pour former un « arc des démocraties » face à Pékin3, ne sont pas membres à part entière de la communauté asiatique. Le Japon est donc irremplaçable pour faire pièce aux ambitions chinoises à l‘intérieur de la région. Si sa prospérité, son dynamisme et – par conséquent – son rayonnement et son autorité diminuent, l‘Occident perdra son meilleur agent d‘influence dans une Asie qui est devenue essentielle à l‘économie mondiale, et donc à tout l‘équilibre de la planète. Le Japon a déjà connu des crises pires que celle qu‘il traverse depuis 1990. Brutalement précipité du Moyen Age dans l‘ère moderne par les canonnières occidentales à l‘ère Meiji (1868-1912), écrasé par le feu nucléaire en 1945, il a chaque fois rebondi plus haut. Mais le peut-il encore ? 1 Voir les articles de Guibourg Delamotte et de Michel Théoval. 2 Voir l‘article de Jacques Dupouey. 3 Voir l‘article de Céline Pajon. 3 Centre Européen de Recherches Internationales & Stratégiques Le Japon puissance déclinante ? Quelles conséquences Géopolitiques ? Economie et politique : les fondamentaux en question Le « miracle » qui a fait du pays en ruines de 1945 la deuxième puissance économique et le premier créancier du monde reposait sur deux facteurs : une croissance économique soutenue et une stabilité politique inébranlable au profit du parti libéral-démocrate (PLD) résolument « pro-business ». Ces fondamentaux ont disparu. La croissance se traîne et le PLD, incapable d‘enrayer la crise, a perdu le pouvoir en 2009 au profit du parti démocrate japonais (PDJ). L’économie : déclin ou redéploiement ? Qu‘on ne s‘y trompe pas : le Japon reste une formidable puissance économique. Il produit autant que la Chine (8% du PIB mondial). Si sa part des exportations mondiales a reculé de 8% à 5% depuis 2000, c‘est notamment parce que ses entreprises ont beaucoup délocalisé, en sorte qu‘une partie des profits générés par les exportations chinoises (ou autres) leur revient… L‘Archipel est toujours le premier créancier du monde, et son patrimoine net à l‘étranger (2 500 milliards de dollars) lui rapporte bien plus que son commerce. Cette puissance financière repose sur un taux d‘épargne brute qui atteint 27% du PIB (contre 14% aux Etats-Unis et 19.3% pour l‘Union Européenne) et par les 12 000 milliards de dollars d‘épargne accumulés par les ménages. Une caractéristique du modèle économique japonais a toujours été la faiblesse relative de la consommation des ménages. Elle induit une dépendance aux exportations particulièrement dommageable quand surgit une nouvelle superpuissance commerciale comme la Chine, ou que les échanges mondiaux se contractent, comme en 2008-2009. Cette faiblesse a été aggravée par les réformes néolibérales du gouvernement Koizumi (2001-2006) qui visaient à diminuer les coûts de production pour relancer les exportations. En l‘absence d‘un Etat-providence suffisant, les dégâts sociaux ont été importants. Le PDJ est venu au pouvoir en promettant de stimuler la demande des ménages et d‘étendre la couverture sociale, ce qui semble incompatible avec la nécessité de maintenir la compétitivité des entreprises et avec l‘endettement colossal de l‘Etat. Le Japon peut-il résoudre ce qui semble être la quadrature du cercle ? Ses atouts sont nombreux. Un pays qui consomme, à production égale, deux fois moins d‘énergie que l‘Europe ou les Etats-Unis (et neuf fois moins que la Chine) peut être à la pointe du marché du développement durable. Une industrie qui possède 45% du parc mondial de robots peut fournir en équipements les nouveaux « ateliers du monde ». La deuxième puissance mondiale en matière de R&D après les Etats-Unis peut créer les produits du futur dans des domaines aussi variés que les nanotechnologies, les neurosciences, les biotechnologies ou les nouveaux matériaux. Fort de sa puissance financière et des réseaux tissés à l‘étranger par ses entreprises, ses maisons de commerce et ses investisseurs, l‘Archipel est aussi en mesure de jouer un rôle de premier plan dans les services, l‘intermédiation et le financement de l‘économie-monde. Sans compter qu‘il a préservé son outil industriel mieux que la plupart des autres pays développés. 4 Centre Européen de Recherches Internationales & Stratégiques Le Japon puissance déclinante ? Quelles conséquences Géopolitiques ? Le Japon bénéficie aussi de sa position dans une Asie qui est désormais le moteur principal de la croissance mondiale. Si la Chine constitue un concurrent formidable, elle est aussi son premier partenaire commercial et une terre d‘accueil pour ses délocalisations. Les entreprises nippones sont le moteur du « circuit intégré asiatique »4 qui approvisionne le géant manufacturier en pièces détachées fabriquées en Asie du Sud-est, et elles assurent souvent tout ou partie de l‘assemblage en Chine, d‘où elles réexportent les produits finis – sans que ces flux ni la valeur ainsi créée par ses entreprises entrent dans les statistiques de l‘Archipel, ce qui accentue excessivement l‘impression de son déclin. L‘Asie en pleine expansion compte aujourd‘hui pour plus de la moitié des exportations japonaises, contre 30 % pour l‘Occident, et si elle ne reçoit encore que le quart des investissements à l‘étranger de l‘Archipel, celui-ci n‘en est pas moins le premier investisseur, ou l‘un des premiers, dans tous les pays de la région. Cette réorientation ne peut qu‘être confortée par les progrès de l‘Asie vers l‘établissement d‘une zone de libre-échange et par la priorité que lui accorde le PDJ, désireux de se déprendre un peu de la relation privilégiée, mais étouffante, avec les Etats-Unis. La politique : faillite ou renouvellement ? Si le Japon dispose des ressources pour une économie prospère, encore faut-il que soient évités les errements et la paralysie politiques qui ont prolongé indéfiniment la crise provoquée en 1990 par l‘éclatement de la bulle spéculative. Ces dysfonctionnements apparaissent a posteriori comme l‘effet pervers de la stabilité qui a par ailleurs tant aidé au « miracle japonais ». La tenure sans fin du PLD a entraîné la patrimonialisation du pouvoir aux mains d‘une caste héréditaire dont les compétences se limitaient souvent à gagner les élections.
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