Preface Prologue: Soviet Collapse and the Rise of China
Notes Preface 1 . EastWest Institute, “Euro-Atlantic Security: One Vision, Three Paths” (June 2009), http://www.ewi.info/euro-atlantic-security . 2 . Hall Gardner, “Toward a Euro-Atlantic Confederation (A Proposal for Kant, Hugo and Tolstoy to shake hands in Kaliningrad, Paris, and Sebastopol),” EastWest Institute (June 23, 2009), http://www.ewi.info/system/files/Gardner_Speech.pdf . See discus- sion “Euro-Atlantic Security Seminar in Brussels” (June 23, 2009) at http://www .ewi.info/euro-atlantic-security-seminar-brussels-0 . Prologue: Soviet Collapse and the Rise of China 1 . The US National Intelligence Council, 2025 Global Trends Final Report (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, November 2008) maintained that Chinese capabilities could reach roughly 60 percent of US power potential by 2025, in terms of composite economic, military, demographic, and “innovation” indices. China is also expected to surpass US GDP by 2036. http://www.aicpa.org/research /cpahorizons2025/globalforces/downloadabledocuments/globaltrends.pdf . 2 . Andrew Nathan and Andrew Scobell, “How China Sees America,” Foreign Affairs (September–October 2012). 3 . President Xi Jinping to the Chinese parliament, http://southchinaseastudies.org/en /weekly-bulletin/806-weekly-bulletin-11-march-17-march . 4 . In geoeconomic terms, the United States represents an insular-core state with a pano- ply of land, air, sea, and outer space (and computer-information) capabilities, while Russia now represents a landlocked core power that has lost most of its overseas naval and maritime status (potentially influencing a sociopolitical backlash). China, mov- ing out of semi-peripheral and continental status, now represents a rising financial power that is developing blue-water naval and maritime capabilities combined with outer space and computer-info capacities—perhaps more comparable to Tsarist Russia than Imperial Germany in the late nineteenth century.
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