Introduction Work Smarter, Not Harder Tomaž Aljaž, Ph.D., Ass

Methodology of Project Work Introduction Work smarter, not harder Tomaž Aljaž, Ph.D., Ass. Professor [email protected]

1 Before we begin …

• Some words about me and my country

Dr. Tomaž Aljaž

Split

2 Short about me … • Married, two beautiful daughters 15 and 17 years • More then 20 years of professional experience on Information technology and telecommunication area. • Main areas of expertise are related to managing I(C)T projects, improving performance of (project) teams, establishing and maintaining optimal use of resources and reducing operating risks. • Prior experiences are related to R&D environment working as Resource, Project and product manager, as well as Solution manager. • Published many articles on information technology and telecommunication area, resource management, project management and process improvements using Theory of Constraints and other Agile methodologies. • Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering from Faculty of Electrotechnical Engineering and Computer Science Maribor, Slovenia and finish courses related to Constraint Management at Washington State University, USA. • Teaching at graduate and post graduate level more than 8 years topic related to performance improvements of organizations, project management, information technology and telecommunication on national and international level. • In 2014 Jonah certificate, recognized by Theory Of Constraints International Certification Organization (TOCICO). 3 About Slovenia

• Independence: 1991 • Area: 20,273 km² • Official language: • Member of the EU: since Slovene 1 May 2004 • Nationality: Slovene (s) • Currency: Euro - € noun | Slovenian • Gross domestic product: (adjective) 16.000 € • Population: 1,992,690 • Milk 1 l = 0,7 € -1,3 € (est. 2013) • Bread 1 kg = 1 – 3 € • Slovenia borders 4 countries https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/si.html 4 Slovenian language (slovenščina)

• Indo-European language belongs to the South Slavic language family. • Slovenian is one of the few to preserve the dual grammatical number from Proto-Indo-European. • Slovenian and Slovak are the two modern Slavic languages - literally mean "Slavic" (slověnskii in old Slavonic). • A highly varied language, many dialects - different grades of mutual intelligibly.

Linguists agree that there are about 48 dialects.

5 http://www.cmepius.si/en/files/cmepius/userfiles/publikacije/Popek_en.pdf Bograč Jota pork, beef, venison, beans, potatoes, potatoes, sauerkraut, dried onions, garlic, pork garlic, bay red pepper, leaf, salt and salt pepper

Ajdovi Prekmurska gibanica žganci buckwheat dough, cottage cheese, poppy flour, water, seeds, walnuts and milk apple filling, sugar

Štruklji Potica Dumplings Nut roll dough, white or buckwheat flour, filling with nuts or dough, nuts, cheese or apple ... sugar

Source: Google images Famous places in Slovenia

7 Question for “warm up”

• In Slovenia there is tradition that groom and bride go to small island in the middle of lake Bled and go to the church tower to ring for a happiness. How many stairs needs groom to carry bride? – A: 5 – B: 50 – C: 100 – D: 200

8 PROJECT MANAGEMENT TERMS

9 What is a Project?

• Temporary* endeavor undertaken to create a unique product, service, or result. • The temporary nature of projects indicates that a project has a definite beginning and end. • The end is reached when the project’s objectives have been achieved or when the project is terminated because its objectives will not or cannot be met, or when the need for the project no longer exists. • A project may also be terminated if the client (customer, sponsor, or champion) wishes to terminate the project. *Temporary does not necessarily mean the duration of the project is short. It refers to the project’s engagement and its longevity.

Source: PMBOK_Guide_5th Edition 10 What is Project management?

• is the application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to project activities to meet the project requirements. • Project management is accomplished through 5 main groups • Initiating, • Planning, • Executing, • Monitoring and Controlling, and • Closing. Source: PMBOK_Guide_5th Edition 11 How to Manage a project ? • Identifying requirements; • Addressing the various needs, concerns, and expectations of the stakeholders in planning and executing the project; • Setting up, maintaining, and carrying out communications among stakeholders that are active, effective, and collaborative in nature; • Managing stakeholders towards meeting project requirements and creating project deliverables; • Balancing the competing project constraints, which include, but are not limited to: – Scope, – Quality, – Schedule, – Budget, – Resources, and – Risks. Source: PMBOK_Guide_5th Edition •12 DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO MANAGE PROJECTS

13 Different types of methodologies for managing projects • Traditional – Waterfall, V-model (PMI, ITIL)

• Theory of constraints – Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM)

• Agile – Scrum

• Mixed – „Rolling Wave“ 14 Waterfall / V model • The waterfall model is a sequential (non- iterative) design process • Progress is seen as flowing steadily downwards (like a waterfall) • Still dominant project Management model

Source: Wikipedia 15 V model • May be considered an extension of the waterfall model • Instead of moving down in a linear way

Source: Wikipedia 16 Planing

• Work Breakdown Structure – Which tasks need to be completed?

• Process Plan - Phase Plan - Schedule – How are the tasks organized according to a schedule? How long do the individual tasks take?

• Project Resource Plan – Who will do a task(s)? – How much capacity do we need? 17 Critcal Chain Project Management • Definition (by Wikipedia) – Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM) is a method of planning and managing projects that puts the main emphasis on the resources required to execute project tasks. This is in contrast to the more traditional methods derived from critical path and PERT algorithms, which emphasize task order and rigid scheduling. A Critical Chain project network will tend to keep the resources levelly loaded, but will require them to be flexible in their start times and to quickly switch between tasks and task chains to keep the whole project on schedule.

Constrain resource (bootleneck)

18 Critical Path vs. Critical Chain

• Critical Path: – Defined as the longest chain of activities in a project. This, by definition, ignores any resource limitations. It assumes that there are no resource issues within the project.

• Critical Chain: . Defined as the longest chain of dependent events – considering both activity and resource dependencies.

Source: http://alexrogoventures.wordpress.com/2011/06/06/project-management-transitioning-from-critical-path-to-critical-chain/ 19 Let’s take advantage of good statistics. If we finish early, we can move on to the next task. Don’t waste Safety Allocated. Before: 85% Estimate Completion Distribution

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Buffer

Due Date After: 50% Estimate Completion Distribution Notice, we are only changing the 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Buffer schedule. Actual work distributions are the With an aggressive schedule, Due Date same. If we finish we take advantage of early, we can capture serendipitous events the advantage. 20 Using MS Project

21 Critical Chain and Risk Management • Use buffers to reduce risk

100 • Use relationship between work completed and High Risk High buffer consumed to Risk measure risk for each Medium chain in the network Risk • Use buffer management Low Risk to trigger investigation of % Buffer Consumed Buffer % problems 0 100 • Use results of investigation to plan and % Critical Chain Completed implement appropriate

action / help needed 22 What is Agile?

We are uncovering better ways of developing software by doing it and helping others do it. Through this work we have come to value:

Individuals and interactions over processes and tools Working software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan

That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value the items on the left more. http://www.agilemanifesto.org 23 What is Agile?

http://method-r.com/papers?download=96:my_case_for_agile 24 What is Agile NOT

• Some people believe that being Agile means that you don’t write a project specification.

• Some people believe that being Agile means that you don’t do design (for example, that you don’t do data modeling when you’re developing a database application).

• Some people believe that being Agile means that you can skip whatever software development project steps you just don’t like doing.

25 SCRUM

• Scrum is an Agile framework for completing complex projects. • Scrum originally was formalized for software development projects, but it works well for any complex, innovative scope of work.

Source: Scrum alliance 26 What is Scrum

• Self-organizing teams • Product progresses in a series of “Sprints” (from 1 to 4 weeks) • Requirements are captured as items in a list of “product backlog” • No specific engineering practices prescribed • Uses generative rules to create an agile environment for delivering projects • One of the “agile processes” https://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/uploads/presentations/Getting-Agile-With-Scrum-Norwegian-Developers-Conference- 2014.pdf 27 Scrum process

https://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/uploads/presentations/Getting-Agile-With-Scrum-Norwegian-Developers-Conference28- 2014.pdf What is Sprint

• Scrum projects make progress in a series of “sprints” • Typical duration is 1–4 weeks or a calendar month at most • A constant duration leads to a better rhythm • Product is designed, coded, and tested during the sprint • No changes during a Sprint

Funny movie: Scrum Master (click on a link)

https://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/uploads/presentations/Getting-Agile-With-Scrum-Norwegian-Developers-Conference29- 2014.pdf Scrum Framework

Roles Managing • Product owner • Sprint Planning • Scrum master • Sprint Review • Team • Sprint Retrospective • Daily Scrum meeting Artifacts (15min) • Product backlog • Sprint backlog • Burndown charts

https://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/uploads/presentations/Getting-Agile-With-Scrum-Norwegian-Developers-Conference30 - 2014.pdf Sprint and backlog example

http://blogs.atlassian.com/2013/06/visualize-your-roadmap/ 31 Scrum from different angle

32 Rolling Wave

33 Methodology overview

• Possible Combination of SCRUM in Development with solid project management • Faster Time to Market • Customer receives several usable increments • Faster Value Creation • Reduction of Risk • Reduction of peak workloads • Reporting remains unchanged 34 ROLES AND RESPONSABILITIES IN A PROJECT

35 Roles and responsabilities • Clearly defined and agreed roles and responsibilities ensure accountability

• and contribute to an effective and efficient project.

• RACI matrix* – Responsible: The person who does the work to achieve the task – Accountable: The person who is accountable for the correct and thorough completion of the task – Consulted: The people who provide information for the project and with whom there is two-way communication. – Informed: The people kept informed of progress and with whom there is one-way communication.

*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_assignment_matrix 36 Example of project RACI matrix

*https://www.projectsmart.co.uk/raci-matrix.php 37 Example of Roles

Group General Roles and Responsibilities Program Steering Committee • Holds project decision making responsibility • Sets resources and priorities • Handles issue resolution and barrier removal • Participates in bi-weekly updates and key milestone meetings/takes • follow up action Executive Sponsor • Champions project importance • Escalates Issues Risk Management • Monitor and manage program and project risks

Program Management Office • Builds and manages detailed project plan • Coordinates with all stakeholders • Facilitates resource assignment • Develops and delivers status reports/communications

*Grant Thornton, Dallas IIA Chapter / ISACA N. Texas Chapter Auditing Project Management Controls, 2010 38 Example of Roles

Group General Roles and Responsibilities Business Process Redesign Teams • Detail and benchmark current business processes and related • information flows • Develop new business processes • Report on status and/or issues Technology Implementation Teams • Identify network, hardware and operating system requirements • Install and configure hardware infrastructure, network and system • Develop, install and setup applications • Setup Development, Test and Production Environment • Migrate environments from Development, Test and to Production • Report on status and/or issues

*Grant Thornton, Dallas IIA Chapter / ISACA N. Texas Chapter Auditing Project Management Controls, 2010 39 Example of Roles

Group General Roles and Responsibilities Applications Configuration and • Develop system applications (modules) based on Implementation Teams business process and • requirements • Install and configure application databases • Provide application expertise and insight/knowledge sharing • Migrate data from existing applications Systems Interfaces Team • Design, develop and implement interfaces Security and Controls Team • Identify and design business and technology controls

Quality and Change Control Team • Reviews Quality Assessment documentation • Review and approve project changes • Work with Executive Sponsor to ensure project quality

*Grant Thornton, Dallas IIA Chapter / ISACA N. Texas Chapter Auditing Project Management Controls, 2010 40 CURRENT REALITY

41 What really matters?

• Has the project satisfied the business requirements of the stakeholders? Executive management, Leadership team, End-users, Internal Audit • Was it project delivered on time and within budget? How do stakeholders know? Tracking initial baseline? • Do the business owners ‘perceive’ the project to be successful? Initial expectations? Project Charter, Requirements? • Has the project delivered the business value promised at the beginning? ROI, Cost vs. Actual, Cost Tracking, Change Management

*Grant Thornton, Dallas IIA Chapter / ISACA N. Texas Chapter Auditing Project Management Controls, 2010 42 How bad can things really be?

http://www.actuaries.digital/2015/06/04/project-management-skills-your-career/ 43 2015 Standish CHAOS report

– (study of 50.000 software development projects all arround the world)

https://www.infoq.com/articles/standish-chaos-2015 44 Current reality

https://www.infoq.com/articles/standish-chaos-2015 45 Current reality

https://www.infoq.com/articles/standish-chaos-2015 46 Project Management Office (PMO)

Role Value proposition Additional Project Facts: • •32%PMO fail is departmentdue to inadequate or a project• The management PMO is established to implementationgroup that defines and manage project • 20%maintains fail due the to standards lack of proper of communicationmanagement standards in • 17%process, fail due related to unfamiliarity to the and ordercomplexity to minimize of scope risk of • 69%project fail management,due to lack and/or within improper project implementation failures of projecta organization management methodologies

*Grant Thornton, Dallas IIA Chapter / ISACA N. Texas Chapter Auditing Project Management Controls, 2010 47 WHY ARE PROJECT LATE?

48 Intro to …

• Projects Are: – Unique – Dependent on Precedence – Activities Not Well Known – Highly Variable – Share Resources – Concurrent with Other Projects – Valued by Scope, Schedule and Cost

49 Undesirable Effects of Projects

• Projects Are: – Usually Late – Have Too Many Changes – Often Over Budget – Lots of Rework – Many Priority Battles – Resources Not Available When Needed – Jeopardize Scope for Cost or Schedule

50 Due Date Problems Story: When about to miss a due date, we take drastic actions like compromising on content or pulling in more resources. The problem is that both these actions jeopardize the other original commitments, content and cost Bring the Trim the content schedule back or take expensive on track corrective action

Meet original commitments Not jeopardize the original Do not trim the Thanks to Rees Furbeck who prepared commitment for content or take some of these graphics content within expensive original budget corrective action 51 Change Problems Story: We make changes to satisfy the requirements of our customers. The problem is that these changes jeopardize the original commitments for schedule and budget Satisfy our Make changes commitment to during the provide what our project customers need

Meet original commitments

Meet the original Do not make commitment for changes schedule and during the budget project

52 Rework Problems Story: In general, we start work on a project before final specifications are available. This usually means doing rework when some of our assumptions are incorrect. The problem is that doing rework jeopardizes the original commitments for budget and schedule.

Meet commitment for content, even though Do rework our specifications have changed

Meet original commitments

Not jeopardize the original commitments Do not do for budget and rework schedule 53 The Core Problem (Constraint) The safety we are allowed is not The original enough to absorb the glitches commitment is realistic Do whatever it takes Compensate for to meet an early mis- endangered original estimations / commitment mis-calculations

Meet original commitments

Not compensate Not jeopardize any for early mis- other original estimations / commitment mis-calculations

54 Dealing with Variability, Interdependency, Human Behavior

Quality and Timing and Budgeted Scope Schedule Costs

Bumpy Road of Reality 55 How a project looks graphically?

Network (PERT View)

Bar Chart (Gantt View)

What do all of these things represent? 56 Traditional (PERT/CPM)

– Mechanisms for building the schedule Assumption of infinite resource availability before identifying the Critical Path Initial Critical Path equals longest sequence of task and path dependencies exclusive of resource dependencies

57 Projected Lead Time The Best Way to Understand Project Problems • It is hard to examine one project and find a pattern to the problems. – There are too many excuses. – There is so much variability in tasks that the solution (problem) changes with every look. • Its better if we could examine the same project executed over and over again to look for trends. – Simulation can do this – Thru-Put Critical Chain Simulator! – The Thru-Put Critical Chain Simulator is not complete. It is for evaluation only.

58 Understanding Variability

Before we go to the Simulator…

What is 8 times 8? 64? Are you sure?

What is 8? 8? Or 8±1?

So, what is 8±1 times 8±1? Somewhere between 49 and 81! With 64 being the most likely.

59 Good Statistics

Variability Adds as the Square Root of the Sum of the Squares (Central Limit Theorem Variability reduces when combined)

+ = +

Watch Simulation 01

60 Bad Statistics

Assembly: If one is late, they are all late. + = +

Watch Simulation 02

61 Resource Conflict

Watch Simulation 04

62 Traditional project tasks and schedules

Well…about 5 days Create list + I am working on another project of tasks + I get interrupted a lot + Something usually goes wrong So…10 days!

Project Manager asks, “How much time do you need to finish task?”

63 Look at a real project Sim 5

Commitment 70 Days

Watch Simulation 05

64 Results of one Simulation Run

Commitment 70 Days

Actual 72 Days

65 Results of 1000 Runs

Commitment 70 Days

66 Sim 05 Treats Tasks as Normal Distributions

Task Duration Distribution for Activity A1 Theoretical and Actual Simulation Data

67 But, Are Project Tasks Normal Activities?

How long did it take you to drive to work this morning? What is the least time it has ever taken? What is the most time it has ever taken? What is the average time to drive to work? Is the average closer to the shortest? Is the average closer to the longest? 50% Estimate

85% Estimate

Play Sixes Game!

Time ->

68 Quick Check on the Beta Distribution • For an In-Class Exercise, let’s check on the Beta Distribution and it’s relationship to completing tasks that have a high probability of rework. • How many times do you have to roll a fair die to get a Six? • Each person in class roll a die (or program Excel “=RANDBETWEEN(1,6) “ • Count the Rolls and record them. • Repeat the process 10 times. • When asked, report how many times (out of ten trials) you rolled just once. How many times twice. Three times? And more.

• We will build the Histogram and the see the probable number of rolls to get a six as well as the Cumulative Distribution in-class. • Yes, we will do it now.

69 How many time we need to rol the dice to get six? In MS Excel, “=randbetween(1,6)”

and push

? ?

? ? ? ?

? ?

. ? . . . .

......

? .

. . . 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

70 Skewed Distribution for Sim 6a

Task Duration Distribution for Activity A1 Theoretical and Actual Simulation Data

71 Results of 1000 Simulations 6a (skewed)

Commitment 50% Probability 70 Days

72 Try Adding Safety time to each Task Scheduling 11 Days per Task

Commitment 60% Probability 77 Days

73 Maybe 13 Days per Task would do it? Commitment 75% Probability 87 Days

74 Try giving 18 days per Task as a big safety cushion

Commitment 85% Probability 127 Days

75 Getting Better at Hitting our Projections, But... Statistical Summary for PmSim Project Management Simulation Single Project Results

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Project Duration (Days) Rees Furbeck’s clever graphic 76 What about 19 days per Task as additional safety cushion

Commitment 90% Probability 154 Days

77 Engineering Optimism

Question: If you have 16 days to to a 10 day project, when do you start? Immediately! Or, After 6 days. Or, After 10 days (since you know you are faster than average and can probably do it in 6 days).

Student Syndrome

Normal level of effort

Assigned Due Date

78 I hate Student Syndrome!

It wears People out! Self Imposed Overtime And, they think its their own fault!

Normal level of effort

Assigned Due Date

79 There is another Problem

Question: You fought tooth and nail to get the 16 days you wanted to do the 10 day project. If you finish in 14 days, will you go around advertising early completion? What if you finish in 10 days? How about 8 days? Wonder of wonders, 6 days? Most people report 16 days (75% of people).

This is called Erroneous Reporting of Completion time! Others call it: Parkinson’s Law--Work expands to fill the time available 80 Student Syndrome and 75% Erroneous Reporting Sim 06, 16 days, only 25% report early completion

Appearance: Boy are we Good! We made our Due Dates!

81 A 90% Estimate of this 70 Day Project is: 154 + Days

Statistical Summary for PmSim Project Management Simulation Single Project Results

Normal Task Duration Distribution, 50% Task Estimate Confidence 5 Skewed Task Duration Distribution, 50% Task Estimate Confidence 6a Skewed Task Duration Distribution, 60% Task Estimate Confidence 6b 75% Task Estimate Confidence 6c 85% Task Estimate Confidence Simulation 6d Add 75% Erroneous Reporting of Task Completions (Parkinson's Law) 6e Add Student Syndrome 8a 90% Task Estimate Confidence 8b

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Project Duration (Days)

82 90% probability, Student Syndrome and 75% Erroneous Reporting Sim 06, 19 days, Appearance: only 25% report Boy are early completion we Good! We made our Due Dates!

83 We need to do more tasks at the same time – Multitasking?

84 Multitasking - game

Your job is to finish three (3) tasks:

1. Write numbers from 1 to 20 Task1 Task2 Task3 2. Write letters from A to O 1 A 3. Write square, circle and triangle until 2 B you have 20 objects 3 C 4 D Measure time to finish all 3 tasks! 5 E Assumptions: 6 F Execution: 0,5s for one character, safe value 7 G is 1s 8 H Policy to work: ASAP vs ALAP . . .

85 90% probability, Student Syndrome and 75% Erroneous Reporting, multitasking Sim 06, 19 days, only 25% report early completion, Multitasking

86 Consider Three Individual 70 Day Projects in Parallel! Simulation 9a Multi-Project Student Syndrome 75% Erroneous Reporting, 90% Estimate

87 Rather than delaying, try Alternating

My Assignments

Task 1 Task 2 Task 3

10 days 10 days 10 days

Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 1 Task 2 Task 3

5 days 5 days 5 days 5 days 5 days 5 days Everything Takes Twice as Long!!!!!!!!!!

88 I Hate Multi-Tasking Even More!

89 I Hate Multi-Tasking Even More!

90 Painful Results! Statistical Summary for PmSim Project Management Simulation

Normal Distribution, 50% Task Estimate Confidence 5 Skewed Distribution, 50% Task Estimate Confidence 6a Skewed Distribution, 60% Task Estimate Confidence 6b 75% Task Estimate Confidence 6c 85% Task Estimate Confidence 6d Add 75% Erroneous Reporting of Task Completions (Parkinson's Law) 6e Add Student Syndrome 8a 90% Task Estimate Confidence 8b Add Multi-Project, Shared Resource (Queues) 3 Projects 9a

3 Projects Add Multi-Tasking 9b 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 91 Would you like to know elements of the solution?

92 The CCPM Solution to Project Management Scheduling

• The last session was pretty depressing – Project Structure is a problem. – Task Variability is a worst problem. – Human Behavior (as a result of attempting to deal with structure and variability)-Ahhh! • Result, a single project planned for 70 days stretches to 160 days! • Three 70 day concurrent projects exceed 350 days!

93 We have Maxed Out!

• “We are caught in a vicious cycle which leads us to inflate our estimates and press for more people, just to see the completion dates of our projects slipping more and more into the future ... • “... until the time to do the project becomes so long or the compromises on the content become so large that the clients tell us, “If that’s the case we’ll go elsewhere !” Eli Goldratt 94 What are the elements of the Solution? • Step 1. Find the Constraint: The Critical Chain • Step 2. Decide how to Exploit the Constraint: Expedite Critical Chain Tasks • Step 3. Subordinate to the Constraints Yield Resources to CC Tasks Complete Feeding Tasks Early • Step 4. Elevate the Constraint: Off-Load CC (change schedule/resources) • Step 5. Warning! Avoid Inertia (get better and better).

95 What are the elements of the Solution? • It makes no sense to intentionally schedule conflicts. • Prioritize the work. Aggressively work the priorities. • Stagger the release of work (Remember the Job Shop Game) • Provide Buffers Where They Count • Communicate what is important to those who can make a difference • How?

96 Multi-Project Simulation 9c

Red is the Tightest Scheduled Resource

97 1. Prioritize - Stagger Projects

Stagger based on de-conflicting Red Resources (others may conflict between projects)

98 Staggering helps a bit but there is still Multi-Tasking

First Project Median 169

Second Project Median 219 (total time 323)

Third Project Median 235 (total time 367)

99 Maybe we need to do this by fixing each project, one project at a time! Lets look at the single Project CCPM Solution for a few minutes before we return to the Multi- Project

100 Critical Path vs. Critical Chain

• Critical Path: – Defined as the longest chain of activities in a project. This, by definition, ignores any resource limitations. It assumes that there are no resource issues within the project.

• Critical Chain: . Defined as the longest chain of dependent events – considering both activity and resource dependencies.

Source: http://alexrogoventures.wordpress.com/2011/06/06/project-management-transitioning-from-critical-path-to-critical-chain/ 101 Traditional project tasks and schedules Well…about 5 days Create list + I am working on another project of tasks + I get interrupted a lot + Something usually goes wrong So…10 days!

Project Manager asks, “How much time do you need to finish task?” • What do these factors do to a project (usually)? – Resources focus on task “due dates”; – Student Syndrome -> Late starts: start working on a task at the last possible moment before a deadline; – Parkinson’s Law (Erroneous reporting) -> Work expands to fill the time as it was estimated; and 102 – Resources usually multitask. Creating the Plan / Sequence / Schedule • It is important to have a project schedule to start a CCPM Sequence. • But, it’s very difficult to develop a project schedule – Establishing Sequence among unknowns – Predicting Precedence when it’s the first time. – Need much, much more information (not there) – Some processes are not even defined • Most people are reluctant to create a project schedule because if they do, they will be held to it. And, with all the variability in projects, there will be changes. There is really no way to win if you create a plan. At least not before CCPM. 103 Still you need a schedule A Critical Chain • How can you apply all the good Critical Chain Schedule is an Techniques to nothing? overall Management – (You can do a lot, but that’s for later discussions) plan. It is not a • Make simplifying assumptions detailed, micro- management of – Schedule in weeks or months and not hours or every task. days Scheduling blocks of – Limit the number of activities (30-80 is adequate activities for most everything) for the whole project aggregates – variability within Step back and take the big picture. What big the block and block goes first? Then, what blocks follow that? gives better How do you end? Where are the parallel blocks overall management of to go? Patch together some precedence the system as a relationships between the blocks. whole. 104 Bad Looking Project Plans

105 There are Some Big Problems in Big Projects • Some people will take half the project time trying to get the PERT diagram down and exact (they have fear to start). You need a plan, but remember, changes are normal. So, get together a ‘feasible’ plan, then START. Changes are normal. • Some people don’t build a network at all. They just jump in and go. They feel they have done the work so many times, they don’t need a plan (seat of pants method). Think of what can happen. This is almost as bad as the overworked plan. • Too many people build a detailed PERT and throw it away in weeks (changes occur faster than they can up date the plan) • A few succeed in micro-managing the plan by CHANGING THE PLAN DAILY and adjusting for every little change (over kill). • The under the table project managers will build a PERT and keep it hidden or show it only to a few trusted employees (Hide and seek 106 management) TOC Scheduling Techniques: How To... • Rough together an outline of the project • Eyeball or use Intuition on Task Estimates • Recognize those FEW limiting elements (Strategic Resources) • Find the few long paths through the network by observation • Challenge the precedence along the longer paths to make sure. “DO THEY HAVE TO EXIST?” –Why can’t I do this thing earlier? Later? In Parallel? –Is there really ‘precedence relationship’ or is that just how we have always done it? –Is there no other way? Can’t some other resource do this work? 107 Once We Have a Rough Plan …

• The rough plan includes most major activities and their precedence relationships • Keep the number of tasks few (max of 30-100). The PERT diagram will be changed to a CCPM plan soon. The plan will be used to manage the project NOT THE DAILY ACTIVITIES! • The task duration times are estimated (ball park). • The few long paths through the network are examined and challenged (don’t forget this--great source of rapid improvement for almost no cost).

• We are ready to start. 108 Wide Band Receiver Project (Taken from Project Management in the Fast Lane, Rob Newbold, P81)

10/96 1/97 4/97 7/97 10/97 1/98 4/98 7/99 10/99 1/00 4/00

P2 Task names and size relative to duration with P3 connection arrows. E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

Resources P and E work together on E2 T2 tasks PE1, PE2 and PE3.

Create the Rough-Cut Plan

Expected Duration 36 Months

109 Resources Noted

10/96 1/97 4/97 7/97 10/97 1/98 4/98 7/99 10/99 1/00 4/00

Identify the resources P2 involved in each of the P3 tasks. Here, they are color coded E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

E2 T2

Color Coded for Resources E P T 110 Take an aggressive Schedule We have talked about the problems with the Student Syndrome (start late), and Parkinson's Law (work expands to fill the time available). To combat these behavioral impacts, we need to take an aggressive schedule. This is a SCHEDULE only. We are not taking away work time or expecting the worker to cut corners or work differently. We just want the work to start when it is supposed to start and be reported as soon as it is done (done is when it is “good enough”). We want our workers to “Do their best!” Mode (most common) Median (50% below) Mean (centroid) Prob 85% below

0 10 CC 20 Estimate Safe Estimate 111 Traditional Safe Estimate

10/96 1/97 4/97 7/97 10/97 1/98 4/98 7/99 10/99 1/00 4/00

Safe P2 Estimate P3

E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

E2 T2

112 Critical Chain Estimate

10/96 1/97 4/97 7/97 10/97 1/98 4/98 7/99 10/99 1/00 4/00

E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

E2 T2 Critical Chain Estimate (Activity Times cut in half for Scheduling Purposes Only)

113 I’ll stretch out the Time Line so we have more room to talk about this project.

10/96 1/97 4/97 7/97 10/97 1/98 4/98

E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

Remember, activity estimates have be E2 T2 estimated at 50% probability of completion

Cutting activity times sounds like you are telling people we don’t believe them or they are not important or forcing them to work overtime for free or we are turning up the heat! This is not what we want. We want people to do their best and not feel under the gun. We want people to work effectively on the things that are important. So, you need to be careful how you communicate your 114 abbreviated schedule. Let’s take advantage of good statistics. If we finish early, we can move on to the next task. Don’t waste Safety Allocated. Before: 85% Estimate Completion Distribution

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Buffer

•Let me see if I can help. Boss: Joe, I see you have estimated ten days to do this task. Is that a good estimate? Joe: Yes, you know how hard it is and we have taken even longer than 10 days sometimes in the past. But, I think I can do it. Boss: Thanks Joe, we appreciate your good work. You know this is an important project for us and we want to finish it as soon as possible. But, your task is important task too. We can’t do without it. And, it needs to be done right or it will create problems down the line. In fact, your task is so important that I want Bill who will do the task right after you to be ready in advance so we can take advantage of your work as soon as you finish. Boss: So, I’m going to put on the project schedule that your task will only take 5 days. That will make sure Bill is ready to take the hand-off. I don’t expect you to guarantee you will be finished in five days. There is a good chance it will take longer than 5 days. I know it could even take 15 days. But, I want everyone else to be ready to move the project on as soon as you are complete. Boss: So, do your best! We will have everything ready for you before your start. Let us know the moment your task is complete. At the daily update, tell us how many days are remaining on the task. Tell us if any body or any thing is holding 116 you up. If you need anything, we are here to help. Schedule and Resource View We can break the schedule into its component parts- Schedule and resources

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Schedule View P2 P3

E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

E2 T2 Note: Only one Resource View each of P,E,T P P2 P3 Resource. So P1 PE1 PE2 PE3 Resource P E E1 has worst PE1 PE2 PE3 E2 Conflict. T E and T have T2 T3 minor conflict. T1

117 Leveling Resources Right to left Now, we start to schedule from Right to Left (start at end-last possible point) Inserting new task from right to left as you go (one at a time).

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Schedule View

Work Preceding: E1,P1,T1,PE1,T3,PE2=13 PE3

Right Side Starting Resource View Point

PE3

118 Leveling Resources Right to left Now, we start to schedule from Right to Left (start at end-last possible point) Inserting new task from right to left as you go (one at a time).

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Schedule View

Work Preceding: E1,P1,T1,PE1,T3=11 PE2 PE3

Right Side Starting Resource View Point

PE2 PE3

119 Priority Scheduling Continuing to schedule from Right to Left pushing lower priority work to the left.

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Schedule View Work Preceding: None=0 P3

Work Preceding: E1,P1,T1,PE1,T3=11 PE2 PE3

Right Side Starting Resource View Point P3 PE2 PE3

PE2 PE3

120 Priority Scheduling Continuing to schedule from Right to Left pushing lower priority work to the left.

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Schedule View P3

Work Preceding: E1,P1,T1,PE1,T3=11 PE2 PE3

Right Side Starting Resource View Point P3 PE2 PE3

PE2 PE3 Pushing Back P3

121 Priority Scheduling Continuing to schedule from Right to Left pushing lower priority work to the left.

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Schedule View P3

T3 PE2 PE3

Right Side Starting Resource View Point P3 PE2 PE3

PE2 PE3

No Problem with T3 T3

122 Priority Scheduling Continuing to schedule from Right to Left pushing lower priority work to the left.

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Schedule View Work Preceding: None=0 P3

Work Preceding: E1,P1,T1=8 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

Right Side Starting Resource View Point P3 PE1 PE2 PE3

PE1 PE2 PE3

123 Priority Scheduling Continuing to schedule from Right to Left pushing lower priority work to the left.

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Schedule View P3

Work Preceding: E1,P1,T1=8 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

Right Side Starting Resource View Point P3 PE1 PE2 PE3

Decision: Again, PE1 has PE1 PE2 PE3 Higher Priority, than P3. Push P3 Earlier in time T3

124 Are You Starting to Worry about Sequence? There are two ways to arrange this sequence. Take a simple case were A must precede C and B must precede D. Tasks A and B are performed by the same resource. Which should go first? A or B?

C Which is better? A

B Depends upon the Critical Chain D

Which path would you like C to have on the Critical Chain? Often you have a A choice. Remember, the Critical Chain will receive B special treatment. Do you want it or want to stay D away from it? 125 Priority Scheduling Continuing to schedule from Right to Left pushing lower priority work to the left.

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Work Preceding: None=0 P3 Work Preceding: None=0 P2 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

Right Side Starting Resource View Point P3 P2 PE1 PE2 PE3

If work proceeding is equal, push back PE1 PE2 PE3 the earliest finish. Then, if equal ending, push back T3 shortest. 126 Priority Scheduling Continuing to schedule from Right to Left pushing lower priority work to the left.

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Schedule View P3 P2 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

Right Side Starting Resource View Point P3 P2 PE1 PE2 PE3

Pushing Back P2 PE1 PE2 PE3

127 Priority Scheduling Continuing to schedule from Right to Left pushing lower priority work to the left.

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Schedule View P3 P2 Work Preceding: E1,P1=6 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

Work Preceding: E2=4 T2 Right Side Starting Resource View Point P3 P2 PE1 PE2 PE3

PE1 PE2 PE3

Decision: Push back T2 T2 T3 T1

128 Priority Scheduling Continuing to schedule from Right to Left pushing lower priority work to the left.

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Schedule View P3 P2 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

T2 Right Side Starting Resource View Point P3 P2 PE1 PE2 PE3

Pushing back T2 PE1 PE2 PE3 T2 T3 T1

129 Priority Scheduling Continuing to schedule from Right to Left pushing lower priority work to the left.

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Work Preceding: None=0 P3 Work Preceding: None=0 P2 Work Preceding: E1=2 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

T2 Resource View P3 P2 PE1 PE2 PE3 P1 PE1 PE2 PE3 P1 Conflicts with P2 and P3. Push Back P2 & P3. T2 T1 T3

130 Priority Scheduling Continuing to schedule from Right to Left pushing lower priority work to the left.

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P3 P2 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

T2 Resource View

P2 P3 P1 PE1 PE2 PE3 PE1 PE2 PE3 Pushing Back P1 & P2. T2 T1 T3

131 Priority Scheduling Continuing to schedule from Right to Left pushing lower priority work to the left.

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P3 P2 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

E2 T2 Resource View

P2 P3 P1 PE1 PE2 PE3 PE1 PE2 PE3 E2 T2 T1 T3

132 Priority Scheduling Continuing to schedule from Right to Left pushing lower priority work to the left.

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P3 P2 Precd: None=0 E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

Precd: None=0 E2 T2 Resource View

P2 P3 P1 PE1 PE2 PE3 PE1 PE2 PE3 E2 T2 T1 T3 E1 E1 Conflicts with E2 133 Push Back E1. Priority Scheduling Continuing to schedule from Right to Left pushing lower priority work to the left.

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P3 P2 E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

E2 T2 Resource View

P2 P3 P1 PE1 PE2 PE3

E1 E2 PE1 PE2 PE3

T2 T1 T3

Pushing Back E1. 134 Leveled Load Here we have all the tasks sequenced without any conflicts. So, what is the Critical Chain? (The longest path with resources considered?)

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P3 P2

E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

E2 T2 Resource View

P P2 P3 P1 PE1 PE2 PE3

E E1 E2 PE1 PE2 PE3 T T2 T1 T3

135 Select the Critical Chain As shown, this schedule would(Latest be called Start) a Latest Start Schedule. We squeezed everything from right moving lower priority work to the left.

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P3 P2

E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

E2 T2 Resource View

P P2 P3 P1 PE1 PE2 PE3

E E1 E2 PE1 PE2 PE3 T T2 T1 T3

136 Buffer Locations (Project Buffer) Now, let’s consider where the important buffer locations will be! First for the project.

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P3 PB P2

E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

E2 T2 Resource View

P P2 P3 P1 PE1 PE2 PE3

E E1 E2 PE1 PE2 PE3 T T2 T1 T3

137 Buffer Locations (Feeding Buffers) Where are feeding sub projects, those that could delay the Critical Chain tasks if the sub project was late? We need feeder buffers there.

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P3 PB P2 FB FB FB

E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

E2 T2 Resource View

P P2 P3 P1 PE1 PE2 PE3

E E1 E2 PE1 PE2 PE3 T T2 T1 T3

138 Identify Buffer Locations (Resource Buffers) At what point do we need to notify resources that they will soon be needed by a Critical Chain task? (Only use resource buffers for the Critical Chain). 10/96 1/97 4/97 7/97 10/97 1/98 4/98

P3 PB P2 FB FB FB

E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3

E2 T2 Resource View

P P2 P3 P1 PE1 PE2 PE3

E E1 E2 PE1 PE2 PE3 T T2 T1 T3

139 Deciding on Buffer Size

• Project Buffer should protect the completion of the project (90-95%%) – Be paranoid but not hysterical • Feeding Buffer should encourage non-critical twigs (parallel paths) to be complete in advance of when needed (90%) and allow the Critical Chain to start early, if the Critical Chain is ahead of schedule • Resource Buffers—These are the wake-up calls, “Be ready. It’s almost your turn to carry the

Baton!” 140 Buffer Locations Let’s Insert the Buffers. First the Project Buffer (it extends past the end of the page.)

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P3 PB P2 FB FB FB

E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3 PB

E2 T2 Resource View

P P2 P3 P1 PE1 PE2 PE3

E E1 E2 PE1 PE2 PE3 T T2 T1 T3

144 Buffer Locations Next the Buffer for P3.

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P3 FB PB P2 FB FB FB

E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3 PB

E2 T2 Resource View

P P2 P3 P1 PE1 PE2 PE3

E E1 E2 PE1 PE2 PE3 T T2 T1 T3

145 Buffer Locations Next the Buffer for P2. Note that for P2 and P3 the buffers are much smaller than the push back time-the time needed to resolve the P resource conflicts. 10/96 1/97 4/97 7/97 10/97 1/98 4/98

P3 FB FB PB P2 FB FB

E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3 PB

E2 T2 Resource View

P P2 P3 P1 PE1 PE2 PE3

E E1 E2 PE1 PE2 PE3 T T2 T1 T3

146 Buffer Locations But as we insert the buffer for P1, we see we must move P1 and P2 back further in time. The size of the P1 Buffer only protects against variability in P1.

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P3 FB FB PB P2 FB FB

E1 P1 T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3 PB

E2 T2

P2 P3 P1 PE1 PE2 PE3

E1 E2 PE1 PE2 PE3

T2 T1 T3

147 Buffer Locations But as we insert the buffer for P1, we see we must move P1 and P2 back further in time. The size of the P1 Buffer only protects against variability in P1.

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P3 FB FB PB P2

E1 P1 FB T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3 PB

E2 T2

P2 P3 P1 PE1 PE2 PE3

E1 E2 PE1 PE2 PE3

T2 T1 T3

148 Final Project Here is the final rescheduled project with Project Buffer, Feeder Buffers and Resource Buffers correctly placed.

10/96 1/97 4/97 7/97 10/97 1/98 4/98 7/98 1/99 // P3 FB P2 FB E1 P1 FB T1 PE1 T3 PE2 PE3 PB Schedule View // E2 T2 Resource View P2 P3 P1 PE1 PE2 PE3 E1 E2 PE1 PE2 PE3 T2 T1 T3

Note: The original duration of this final project was 36 months shown on slide 13. With the reduced Task durations, the Critical Chain is now18 months. The Project Buffer is 9 months. However, inserting the Feeder Buffer before T1 pushed back P1, P2 and P3 to before the start of the critical chain; need to start the Feeder Activity P2 two months before the Critical Chain Tasks. So, the project durattion is actually 29 months. Yes, this is an acceptable schedule; don’t be shocked. This is how the crude alogrithm used for in-class illustration scheduled the CCPM Project. We will examine other better algorithms later. (Perhaps you could create a better algorithm?) But in such highly variable systems, the algorithm has less impact on the Schedule than taking the correct CCPM Steps: 1. Aggressive Task Durations (50%), 2. 50% Buffers, 3. Communicating “Time Remaing” and 4. Buffer Management. With CCPM, we can complete the 36 month project in 29 months or less with 95% reliability. That is what is important. Don’t try to optimize chaos. (Hum? What would be the Buffer Status if we started P2 at the same time as E1?) Dr Holt. 149 Scheduling Multi-Projects

152 Now, let’s look at Multi Project

• We Schedule Each Project individually according to Critical Chain Project Management. • We stagger the projects according to a selected strategic drum (resources) • We include a buffer between projects (on the drum) • All Estimates are at 50%. Use Buffer Management to prioritize resource allocation.

153 Methods to approach Multi- Project Scheduling • Option 1: • Could load all projects into Critical Chain Software, and run the schedule (total blend of all resources). – Considers all projects as one project. – Push the button to Remove all resource contention. – Inserts one Project Buffer and many feeder buffers. • Would that work? 154 Methods to approach Multi- Project Scheduling • Option 2. • We could run each project as a top priority, sequentially (hot and fast turns). • Would allow only one project at a time. – Would focus all energy on the active tasks. – One project Buffer (with some Feeder Buffers) – There may some conflict within a project, but not between projects. • Would that work? 155 Methods to approach Multi- Project Scheduling • Option 3. • We could stagger the release based upon some strategic capability (can be virtual) – Allow overlapping projects – Many Project Buffers (with own Feeder Buffers) – There would unavoidably be some conflict between resources in and between projects. • Would that work?

156 The Method for Multi-Project Scheduling • 1. Schedule Individual Project By Critical Chain. • 2. Sequence Projects to: Allow “Appropriate Overlap of Projects” – Hum? What is “Appropriate”? – Determine the limiting resources and DON’T Over Schedule it (100% Buffer). – Some other resource contention between projects is sure to happen. – Hum? How to deal with additional contention? – Do the same with Between projects as Within projects: Use Buffer Management. 157 Scheduling Multi Projects Step 1. • Create Critical Chain Schedules for Each Individual Project – A. Select the Critical Chain: the critical area where any deviation causes damage to the objective. – B. Buffer to protect from disruption – Project Buffer for the whole and Feeder Buffers to protect from disruptions in non-critical areas. – C. Choke the release – Start tasks as late as possible according to buffer size. • This is a major reduction in the complexity of dealing with multi-projects. • Typically, organizations attempt to optimize the whole system at once. – While this is possible now with massive computing power, the solution is obsolete as soon as it’s fabricated. Too much change. – It is much better to have individual Critical Chain Projects, correctly buffered with aggressive schedules and then to sequence the work correctly

158 Scheduling Multi Projects Step 2. • Choose a Drum Resource (or resources) – Check Loading over several (all) projects – Select the Drum based upon corporate strategy • May not be most heavily loaded – The Drum acts as the Controlling function • Determines release • Determines spacing • Determines Income Generation Rate • The Strategic Drum Decision is as important and critical in Multi-Project Management as the Constraint Resource is in a production line.

159 Scheduling Multi Projects Step 3 • Set Priorities for Individual Projects – Priorities based upon Value/Time (Octane) or Flush of the project – Priorities based on external customer demand – Priorities set by required delivery date • (Critical Ratio comes to play  [Due Date-Now]/[remaining Critical Path Length]) • Level Load the Drum (the strategic resource) – Include Drum Buffer • Buffer between the Drum Activities • Start with a ‘Liberal’ Drum Buffer--up to 100% of activity time. Drum has variability too! Don’t want to shift a lot of project deliveries because of a minor Drum 160 problem. Insert Project and Feeder Buffers Stagger Projects w/ Drum Buffer

Buffer Between Projects Too

161 Aggressive Scheduling Without Buffer Management

Without the communications of Buffer Management we are caught up in random Bad Multi-Tasking. Buffer Management: “Which Task is causing the most penetration to the Project Buffer? Which Task is causing the most penetration of the Feeder Buffers?” Adding Buffer Management allows tasks to responding to the Tasks that have the highest priority eliminates most Bad Multi Tasking, and reduces delays. 162 Adding Buffer management What is Buffer? • Mechanism to protect the system against variability and delay (in the chain feeding the Constraint)

• The size of the buffer is measured – as time; and – as number of parts.

• Different types of Buffers – Raw material buffer – Buffer in front of Constraint (Constraint buffer) – Finish goods buffer 163 – ... Managing the Buffer

• Why – To protect the system throughput without adding more inventory (usually leads to reduction of inventory) – To serve as warning system that detects problems in the process -> gives right priority to treat problem – to help planning and control of inventory

Buffer Time

Constraint

164 Monitoring the Buffer and gap analysis • We can divide the buffer into three (equal) sized zones: Green: -no action required – Green -follow the schedule – Yellow Yellow: – Red Buffer Time -monitor -If problem discovered, plan an intervention Red: - identify and solve RM problems

Constraint - act NOW! 165 Buffer management as Warning system • Let’s look the flow through the process Buffer Time Buffer = 6 days

RM 1 1 1 Day 1 Constraint •No shortage of material identified (release day)

166 Buffer management as Warning system • Let’s look the flow through the process Buffer Time Buffer = 6 days

RM 1 1 1 Day 2 Constraint •Potential shortage of materials identified, but no immediate action required.

167 Buffer management as Warning system • Let’s look the flow through the process Buffer Time Buffer = 6 days

RM 1 1 1 Day 3 Constraint •Shortage of materials identified •Examine causes for delay and identify how to correct the disruption.

168 Buffer management as Warning system • Let’s look the flow through the process Buffer Time Buffer = 6 days

RM 1 1 1 Day 4 Constraint •Shortage of materials demands immediate expediting! •Act NOW!!!

169 Buffer management as Warning system • Let’s look the flow through the process Buffer Time Buffer = 6 days

RM 1 1 1 Day 5 Constraint •Recovery was successful. •Causes for disruption were identified • Analysis started (Pareto chart) to identify possible correction actions 170 Buffer management as Warning system • Let’s look the flow through the process Buffer Time Buffer = 6 days

RM 1 1 1 Day 6 Constraint •We manage to recover from disruption!

171 Another view of Buffer Fever chart 100

Identify and Solve Problems

Monitor

% Buffer penetration Buffer % Follow the Schecdule

Time

172 So, what about Buffers?

• The are critical. • They are not optional. • They are integrated with the Constraint and the Rope. • Buffers are the KEY MANAGEMENT TOOL for DBR. • Buffers help us overcome bad Statistics, terrible Interdependency, and common Human Behavior.

173 “Adding Buffer Management”

The Purple Resource starts on the bottom task because the middle Yellow task is taking so long. When it is time to start the middle Purple task, Purple Resource switches (even though there is only a tiny bit of the bottom Purple Task remaining) to the middle purple task. Only when the middle Purple Task is complete, the Purple Resource returns to the Bottom Purple Task. Why? Because the Green Task followed the middle Purple Task and the late middle Purple Task caused greater buffer incursion. 174 Another Good Buffer Management Examples

Long Durations Green and Light Purple Delays Dark Purple

Dark Purple Starts, then Shifts to Higher Priority Dark Purple above, then Back

Green Delays Red

Buffer Management Shifts Red to Task Causing the most Buffer Penetration. 175 Result with 50% schedule and Buffers

First Project Median 96 90%@110 Expected

Second Project Median 180 90%@210 Expected

Third Project Median 216 90%@245

Expected

176 Statistical Summary for PmSim Project Management Simulation

Normal Distribution, 50% Task Estimate Confidence 5 Skewed Distribution, 50% Task Estimate Confidence 6a Notice: All Three 70 Skewed Distribution, 60% Task Estimate Confidence 6b day project completed 75% Task Estimate Confidence 6c in 240 days. 85% Task Estimate Confidence 6d Add 75% Erroneous Reporting of Task Completions (Parkinson's Law) 6e Add Student Syndrome 8a 90% Task Estimate Confidence 8b Add Multi-Project, Shared Resource (Queues) 3 Projects 9a

3 Projects Add Multi-Tasking 9b Prioritize Projects, 9c Schedule Drum Eliminate Bad Multi-Tasking 9d Use Critical Chain Schedules and Buffer Management, 9e Reduce Erroneous Reporting of Task Completions to 50% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 177 R. Furbeck 5/11/00 Keys to Successful implementation

• Need support from the top management; • All key team members must be trained and work together in preparing the project schedule; • Management must not force resources to multitask; • How team members are evaluated – Team is evaluated based on project completion success; and – Individual task completion due dates and milestones must be (slowly) removed to avoid sub optimization. • Need very clear communication between all involved resources (scheduling and resources involved in tasks).

178 Bottom Line

• There is lots to gain • Particularly in Multi Project Environments • Single Projects 20% reduction • Multi Projects 50% reduction

179 “The bottleneck is at the top of the bottle... AND ... Your focus Determines Your Reality”*

Can you improve performance, if you change policy how you work, measurements? 180 *by Alan Bernard: Traditional Way of managing projects

Performance: ~24 seconds for 1.5 liter ~ 3.75 liter / minute

181 * Theory of Constraints (TOC) 3 Bottle Oiled Wheels Demonstration by Arrie van Niekerk Agile project management

Performance: ~10 seconds for 1.5 liter ~ 9 liters / minute

182 * Theory of Constraints (TOC) 3 Bottle Oiled Wheels Demonstration by Arrie van Niekerk Project management using TOC tools and applications

Performance: ~6 seconds for 1.5 liter ~ 15 liters / minute

183 * Theory of Constraints (TOC) 3 Bottle Oiled Wheels Demonstration by Arrie van Niekerk Comparison

184 * Theory of Constraints (TOC) 3 Bottle Oiled Wheels Demonstration by Arrie van Niekerk