Energy islands in Greece: Astypalaia case study MSc Thesis 4th Semester Sustainable Energy Planning and Management Aalborg University June 8th 2018 Sustainable Energy Planning and Management School of Architecture, Design and Planning Study board of Planning, Geography and Surveying Rendsburggade 14, 9000 Aalborg Title: Synopsis: [5pt] Energy islands in Greece: Astypalaia case study In present, Greece confronts significant Project: financial challenges which are related with several inefficiencies in the governmental MSc Thesis 4th semester mechanisms and in other sectors. One sector which is closely related with Project period: the economy is the energy sector. Energy February 2018 - June 2018 influences the economy in the long term by adding value, income and employment Participants: which derives from the energy generation, Nikolaos Proimakis transformation and distribution of energy. Problems are identified in the Greek Supervisors: energy sector and specifically at the energy Peter Sorknaes provision for the Greek islands. Greece spends a significant amount of financial resources to secure the energy supply for the island complexes which are not interconnected with the mainland Report pages: 1-71 grid. Appendix pages:77-105 Greek plans involve the transformation of the energy sector of a Greek island from fossil-fuel based energy system to a Smart Energy System increasing the penetration of RES in the final electricity production to reach 60+%. This research investigates distinct scenar- ios for substituting the existing inefficient energy system of the island. It seeks to outline the most advantageous scenarios with positive results in the overall perfor- mance of the energy system and achieving the increase in RES share in the final elec- tricity production. The content of the report is freely available, but publication (with source reference) may only take place in agreement with the authors. Preface This is the resulting master thesis from the 4th semester in the Master’s programme of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management at Aalborg University. The master thesis has been carried out in the spring semester 2018, with the semester theme: Master’s Thesis Reading guide Through the report source references in the form of the Harvard method will appear and these are all listed at the back of the report. References from books, homepages or the like will appear with the last name of the author and the year of publication in the form of [Author, Year]. Figures and tables in the report are numbered according to the respective chapter. In this way the first figure in chapter 1 has number 1.1, the second number 2.1 and so on. Explanatory text is found under the given figures and tables. Figures without references are composed by the author. Nikolaos Proimakis v Nomenclature Aalborg University Nomenclature AVC Average Variable Cost CEEP Critical excess electricity production CO2 Carbon Dioxide EU European Union GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas Emissions GPA Greek Adjustment Programs GWP Gross World Product HEDNO Hellenic Electricity Distribution Network Operator IMF International Monetary Fund LPG Liquefied petroleum gas MoU Memorandum of Understanding MS Member States NIIs Non-Interconnected Islands NREAP National Renewable Energy Action Plan PPPs Purchasing Power Parties PPC Public Power Corporation PSO Public Service Obligation PV Photovoltaics RAE Greek Regulatory Authority of Energy RES Renewable Energy Sources SES Smart Energy System TPES Total Primary Energy Supply vii Table of contents Nomenclature...................................... vii Chapter 1 Introduction1 1.1 From global economic crisis to European economic crisis and vulnerable nations....................................... 1 1.2 Greek economic crisis and Greek Adjustment Programs scheme....... 2 1.3 Energy sector and significance on the national economy ........... 3 Chapter 2 Energy sector in Greece5 2.1 Greece and energy dependency ......................... 5 2.2 Energy sector in Greece and power grid distinction.............. 6 2.2.1 Energy mix and indigenous sources................... 6 2.2.2 Mainland Power Grid and Non-Interconnected Islands........ 6 2.3 Greek islands and existing challenges related to energy............ 7 2.4 Political action promoting the energy transition of the EU islands . 10 2.5 National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) and Development Plan 2017-2026..................................... 11 Chapter 3 Problem statement and research design 13 3.1 Problem statement................................ 13 3.2 Research question................................. 14 3.3 Research design.................................. 15 3.4 Delimitations................................... 17 Chapter 4 Applied research methods and theoretical notions 19 4.1 Analysis structure and research objectives................... 19 4.2 Smart energy system .............................. 20 4.3 Tools for the Smart Energy System modelling................. 21 4.4 EnergyPLAN and purpose............................ 22 4.5 Modelling of the reference scenario....................... 22 4.6 Modelling of Smart Energy System scenarios ................. 23 4.6.1 Technology selection criteria....................... 24 4.7 Data management and categorization...................... 25 Chapter 5 The island of Astypalaia 27 5.1 General description and geographical information............... 27 5.1.1 Indigenous resources and local potential................ 28 5.2 Energy system analysis.............................. 29 5.2.1 Heating and cooling sector........................ 30 5.3 Residential sector analysis............................ 31 5.3.1 Typical residence in Astypalaia island ................. 32 5.3.2 Fuel utilization and end-uses of energy................. 32 viii Table of contents Aalborg University 5.3.3 Number of residential customers in final energy consumption . 33 5.4 Commercial sector analysis ........................... 33 5.4.1 Consisting components and existing infrastructure in Astypalaia . 34 5.4.2 Typical hotels and other accommodation services........... 35 5.4.3 Typical dining businesses and other food catering services . 35 5.4.4 School buildings in Astypalaia ..................... 36 Chapter 6 Reference scenario 37 6.1 Introduction.................................... 37 6.2 Reference scenario analysis of results...................... 38 6.2.1 Primary energy supply, demand side and fuel demand . 38 6.2.2 RES share................................. 40 6.2.3 CO2 emissions .............................. 40 6.2.4 Total annual costs ............................ 40 Chapter 7 Smart energy system and alternative scenarios 41 7.1 Analysis focal points............................... 41 7.2 RES technologies and storage system...................... 42 7.3 Modelling and analysis of SES scenarios .................... 43 7.3.1 Critical Electricity Excess Production (CEEP) ............ 43 7.3.2 Electricity grid stabilization share ................... 46 7.3.3 Energy saving measures and individual heat pumps.......... 47 7.3.4 RES capacities combination and ranging values............ 47 7.3.5 Storage facilities and hydro pump storage............... 48 7.3.6 Wind and PV hourly production profile ................ 49 7.3.7 Costs ................................... 49 Chapter 8 Results of the scenarios 51 8.1 SES scenario 1 .................................. 51 8.2 SES scenario 2 .................................. 55 8.3 SES scenario 3 .................................. 60 Chapter 9 Sensitive factors and uncertainties in results 65 9.1 Definition and purpose.............................. 65 9.2 Factors for sensitivity analysis.......................... 65 Chapter 10 Discussion and Conclusions 67 10.1 Discussion..................................... 67 10.1.1 Choice of modelling tool......................... 67 10.1.2 Political environment and potential influence on the RES technologies 68 10.1.3 CEEP and new end-use types...................... 68 10.2 Conclusions.................................... 68 10.3 Further research ................................. 71 Bibliography 73 Appendix A Appendix 77 A.1 Demand tab.................................... 77 ix SEPM Thesis Table of contents A.1.1 Electricity................................. 77 A.1.2 Heating.................................. 86 A.1.3 Cooling .................................. 93 A.1.4 Industry and other fuel consumption.................. 95 A.1.5 Summary of input data for the ’Demand’ tab............. 97 A.2 Supply....................................... 98 A.2.1 Electricity only.............................. 98 A.2.2 Fuel distribution ............................. 98 A.2.3 CO2.................................... 98 A.2.4 Summary of input data for the ’Supply’ tab.............. 99 A.3 Balancing and storage .............................. 99 A.4 Cost........................................ 99 A.4.1 General .................................. 99 A.4.2 Investment and fixed O&M .......................100 A.4.3 Fuel ....................................101 A.4.4 Variable O&M ..............................102 A.4.5 Summary of input data for the ’Cost’ tab . 103 A.5 External electricity market............................103 Appendix B EnergyPLAN results 105 x Introduction 1 1.1 From global economic crisis to European economic crisis and vulnerable nations A principal characteristic of the last 10-year period (2008-2018) is the multitude of economic crises that has erupted and influenced distinct geopolitical levels, transferring from a global