Fondation BERCI, ASBL Congo Research Group Pulse Poll Report #4 July 2018 DRC Public Opinion Poll Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority It's easy to say that there is no consensus on the voting machine because “so and so has claimed on the radio: "I am against it !" But we also need to consider the silent majority that has no radio time. And, who has assessed it, so as to say that the majority is against it? Did you do a referendum on that? No ! So let’s depoliticize this issue. ” Corneille Nangaa, President of National Independent Electoral Commission July 11th 2018
The Congo Research Group (CRG) is an independent, non-profit research project dedicated to understanding the violence that affects millions of Congolese. We carry out rigorous research on different aspects of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. All of our research is informed by deep historical and social knowledge of the problem at hand. We are based at the Center on International Cooperation at New York University.
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Created in 1990, the “Bureau d’Études, de Recherches, et de Consulting International”, (BERCI) is a limited liability company dedicated to undertake research and evaluation projects to improve evidence-based decision-making in DRC. The first Congolese public opinion research firm, BERCI’s activities focuses on development, good governance, statebuilding and peacebuilding related research. Our non-profit polls are jointly coordinated with Fondation BERCI, ASBL.
Images Credentials - Cover page: John Wessel @JOHN WESSEL/AFP (Ref. 0Q7P2); p.6: Kabila's Banner, "hier, aujourd'hui et demain", June 25th, 2018 by Timo Mueller @ MuellerTimo; @MuellerTimo; P. 7 : The International Criminal Court illustration by Damien Roudeau; p. 8: Presidential Majority Meeting, July 29th, 2018 @politico.com; p.9 Magistrats véreux @ Katanga Post; p.10. CNS picture by Keeny Katombe @Reuters; p.11 : The President of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Joseph Kabila, Pretoria, June 25th 2017 © Phill Magakoe/AFP; p.14: Moise Katumbi @Reuters; Felix Tshisekedi, John Bopenga; Kabila @ Reuters/Kenny Katombe; Vital Kamerhe @AFP/Jean-Baptiste Baderha. Contents
4 5 6 Key Findings Methodology Introduction
8 11 14 The Legitimacy of General Political The Presidential the Elections Opinion Race
17 19 The Legislative Foreign Race Involvement DRC Public Opinion Poll - Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority
Keys Findings
The Bureau d'Études, de Recherches, et de Consulting the poll took place. Eighty-three percent thought International (BERCI), and the Congo Research Group his release was a good thing, compared with 66 (CRG) at New York University,with support from the percent who thought his sentence was unfair in New York-based Social Science Research Council (SSRC) the poll we conducted in October 2016. Bemba's conducted a nationally representative political opinion release approval may be propelled by their strong poll across the 26 provinces of the Democratic Republic dislike for Kabila (74 percent disapprove of him). of the Congo during the first week of July 2018. The poll Nonetheless––or perhaps because of his acquittal– was carried out in the run-up to national and provincial –a majority of Congolese (68 percent) still have a elections, currently scheduled for December 23rd good opinion of the International Criminal Court 2018, in order to better understand the attitude of the (ICC). Congolese public toward the country political turmoil as it heads toward elections. The poll indicates that: ■■ The electorate is impatient with the never-ending delays of the electoral process. Respondents are ■ ■ The elections will be highly contentious. Sixty-two fairly evenly split on whether elections should be percent of those polled do not trust the National delayed so that the process can be rendered more independent electoral commission (CENI) to carry credible; 36 percent are not in favor of revising the out free and fair elections, and about the same voting register to eliminate irregularities; and a percentage does not have faith that courts will similar percentage says it does not want to change decide electoral disputes fairly. A plurality (45 the distribution of seats to reflect corrections to percent) said that if President Kabila’s candidate the electoral law. Still, despite their impatience, 66 wins, they will not accept the results, which is percent of respondents are not in favor of electronic extremely troubling. Around half of the respondents voting machines. said they would participate in a demonstration if elections are rigged or delayed. ■■ Although the Kamina Nsapu uprising is no longer headline news, 73 percent of respondents from the ■ ■ In the race for the presidency, the opposition is former Kasai Occidental province believe that their still far more popular than the ruling coalition, but security has not changed since two years ago. Sixty- Felix Tshisekedi, Jean-Pierre Bemba, and Moise nine percent of respondents of the former province Katumbi are now in a statistical tie. Perhaps most of Equateur, as well as 65 percent of Nord Kivu importantly, if the opposition does not unite, the feel the same way. Meanwhile, for 72 percent of ruling coalition could win a free and fair election–– Kinshasa’s respondents, and 71 percent in Maniema, each of the opposition leaders would have around the situation has gotten worse. 19 to 17 percent of the vote, while together all of the candidates who are part of Kabila’s coalition ■■ The campaign for a third term for Kabila is gaining comprise around 19 percent of the vote (15 percent steam. Compared with February, the number of without Adolphe Muzito). people who would vote for Kabila has increased from 6 to 9 percent at the national level and from 21 ■■ Should the opposition have a common candidate? to 37 percent in the former Province Orientale, his The question has become all the more important last and only stronghold. after Bemba’s release; 53 percent of the respondents
would like the opposition to unite behind one person for the presidential election. Respondents favored The poll consisted of 1154 telephone interviews
Moise Katumbi (28 percent), Felix Tshisekedi (26 of Congolese aged 18 years or above across the 26 percent), and Bemba (20 percent) for that position. provinces of the country selected from a list of 2000 cell phone numbers obtained from a BERCI/CRG face- ■■ There is widespread approval for the release of to-face nationally representative poll in 2016. The Jean-Pierre Bemba from the International Criminal response rate was around 57 percent. The margin of error was +/-3 percent. Court, a decision published several weeks before
4 DRC Public Opinion Poll - Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority
Methodology
This poll is part of a series of nationally representative pulse Enumerators were monitored for rushing, skipped polls conducted by the Bureau d'Études, de Recherches, et questions, and other quality indicators. Feedback was de Consulting International (BERCI) and the Congo Research provided to the teams on a regular basis. Group (CRG) at New York University. It was conducted in collaboration with the support from the Social Science Geographical Distribution (%) Research Council (SSRC).
This telephone poll was conducted from June 30 to July 12% Bandundu 8, with a sample size of 1154 persons of 18 years of age 18% 18% and above, and recorded on electronic tablets using Open Data Kit (ODK). The respondents were recruited in the 26 20% provinces from a list of 2000 cell phone numbers obtained Kinshasa 7% from a BERCI/CRG face-to-face nationally representative 6% poll in 2016 across more than 400 sampling sites. The face-to-face database provided geographical spread and 15% Province socioeconomic information about the respondents––their orientale 12% social class, education levels, place of residence, and age, 12% as well as GPS location. The data were uploaded directly to a cloud-based server hosted by Ona.io, accessible to all 12% Kasaï-Oriental partners in real-time. The margin of error for the poll was 11% 11% +/-3 percent and the response rate was 57 percent. 11% A final quality check was then performed to remove records Katanga 10% with incomplete or duplicate answers, and we weighted 10% the results by gender and geographical location in order to match national demographic distributions according 3% to data of the National Statistical Institute (INS). There Sud-Kivu 6% were no significant differences between the raw data and 6% the weighted results, with the exception of the questions regarding voting preferences for presidential and legislative 8% elections and perceptions of international partners, which Kasaï Occidental 8% 8% varied significantly according to geographical location. This consistency of the results seems confirm, as our previous 3% polls suggested, that much of Congolese public opinion Bas-Congo 4% does not vary much based on age, sex, class, or location. 4% The following analysis presents only weighted data, with the exception of International partners’ perception, to facilitate 6% comparison with other BERCI/CRG polls. Nord-Kivu 8% 8% Percentages presented in this report are the result of rounding to the nearest integer, which may add up to more 6% or less than 100 percent. Equateur 13% 13% Provincial breakdowns are often provided based on the 11 4% provinces that existed until 2015, as the sample size was Unweighted sample July 2018 Maniema 2% Weighted Sample July 2018 too small to provide accuracy at the level of the current 26 2% INS Projections provinces.
5 DRC Public Opinion Poll - Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority
Introduction
The coming weeks will be extremely tumultuous in the Congo. By August 8th, all presidential hopefuls must have registered to vote. By then, the public will know whether President Joseph Kabila will refrain from running for a third term––which is barred by the constitution––or will back a “dauphin”, a successor from his coalition. Although 77% Prime Minister Bruno Tshibala confirmed on March 15th Would you be favorable to a that Kabila would not be candidate in the elections, constitutional review to allow associates of the president have encouraged him to run, Kabila to run for a third term ? (% not favorable) and billboards have been put up around the country 89% proclaiming slogans such as: “Joseph Kabila, President of the DRC: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow.”
Would you be favorable to a constitutional change so that the president will not be 76% elected directly by the people (direct universal suffrage), but indirectly by through a parliamentarian vote ( indirect 76% universal suffrage) ? (% not favorable)
This campaign, the newly formed coalition between the presidential majority, opposition parties members of the current government, and pro-Kabila civil society What do you think of the new coalition between the 69% named the Front Commun pour le Congo (FCC), as well presidential Majority and as others statements made by Kabila’s allies, are feeding opposition parties member of speculation that the president may attempt to run for a the government called "Front third term, despite the fact that: Commun pour le Congo", FCC? (% Bad opinion) ■■ 77 percent of respondents are not favorable to a consti- tutional revision to allow Kabila to stand for a third term; ■■ 76 percent are not favorable to a constitutional change to allow the president to be elected indirectly by par- Do you think that since the liament; ■ Constitution was revised from 61% ■ 69 percent have a bad opinion of FCC; the two-round majority ■■ 61 percent do not think that because the constitution system in 2006 to the simple was changed from two rounds to one in 2011 Kabila first past the post system in can stand for a 3rd term. 2011, allows Kabila to stand for a third term? (% No) By August 8th we should also know whether Moise Katumbi, who is currently in exile, and Jean-Pierre Bemba, who was recently acquitted of charges at the International Criminal Court, are able to run for the July 2018 February 2018 presidential race.
6 DRC Public Opinion Poll - Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority
On June 8th 2018, Bemba was acquitted on appeal f charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court (ICC), after spending a ? decade behind bars. On July 13th he received his new biometric Congolese passport, and he announced his WHAT IS YOUR OPINION OF THE return to Kinshasa for August 1st. Katumbi, on the other hand, was sentenced in absentia to 36 months in prison FOLLOWING PERSONALITIES ? by a Congolese court for illegally selling property in June Geographical Distribution (%) 2016. He has announced his return on several occasions, most recently for August 3rd. The Congolese government 12% has not responded to his request for a new, biometric Bandundu 18% passport, after his old passport was confiscated by 18% Belgian authorities on June 14th 2018 at Brussels aiport. 20% Kinshasa 7% 6%
15% Province orientale 12% 12%
12% Kasaï-Oriental 11% 11%
11% Katanga 10% 10%
Felix Tshisekedi, the son of the late opposition leader 3% Etienne Tshisekedi, is also a strong contender for the Sud-Kivu 6% presidency; his rally in Kinshasa in April 2018 is the first 6% that was allowed by the government since it banned 8% demonstrations in 2016 and took place while he was Kasaï Occidental 8% negotiating the return of his father remains to the Congo. 8% On May 25th, Felix Tshisekedi and Katumbi issued a 3% joint declaration to unite for a single candidacy of the Bas-Congo 4% opposition. Moreover, the three contenders are still 4% amongst the most popular politicians. Compared to February 2018 : 6% Nord-Kivu 8% 8% ■■ 82 percent of respondents have a good opinion of Moise Katumbi (up by sixteen points); 6% ■■ 71 percent of Bemba (up by five points); Equateur 13% ■■ 70 percent of Eve Bazaïba, the secretary-general of 13% MLC (down by two points); 4% ■ Unweighted sample July 2018 ■ 68 percent of Felix Tshisekedi (up by two points); Maniema 2% Weighted Sample July 2018 ■■ 64 percent of Vital Kamerhe (up by eight points). 2% INS Projections
7 DRC Public Opinion Poll - Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority
The Legitimacy of the Elections
The National Independent Electoral Commission
Few Congolese think that the upcoming elections will be credible. When asked if they trusted the election commission (CENI) to organize fair and transparent elections, only 25 percent said yes. Sixty-nine percent have a bad opinion of its president, Corneille Nangaa–– although he recently stated that his mission “is not to be popular or to forge trust, my mission is to organize elections.” Most troubling is that a plurality of Congolese––45 percent––would not accept the results if the ruling party’s candidate wins.
“ My mission is not to be popular or to forge trust, my mission is to organize elections. Do you intend to vote in the Corneille Nangaa, presidential and/or the 95% 95% 82% CENI President, June 22th, 2018 legislative elections ? (% Yes) This skepticism is rooted in a series of controversies in which CENI has become entangled. In September 2017, it announced that it was planning to use voting machines If the presidential election is won by a candidate from the for the momentous upcoming elections, sparking fears 78% of chaos and a lack of transparency. In Africa, Namibia is Opposition would you accept the the only African country that has used similar machines, results ? (% Yes) but its electorate is 3 percent that of the Congo, and the electoral commission invested extensive time in testing the machines and educating the population. Do you have a good or bad Other experiences suggest that, in order to prevent opinion of Corneille Nangaa ? 54% 61% 57% 72% 69% controversy and logistical problems, voting machines (% Bad Opinion) should be phased in slowly, through low-stake elections, before being used for national polls and trust in the electoral commission should be high. Sixty-six percent of respondents in our July 2018 poll are not in favor of Do you trust CENI to organize the voting machine, nicknamed the machine" à voler" or free, fair and transparent 54% 57% 69% 63% "vote stealing machine.” The voting registration process, elections ? (% No) which the electoral commission wrapped up in February 2018, has also raised questions. According to an analysis Organisation Internationale de la conducted by the If the presidential elections are francophonie (OIF), of the 40 million voters registered, won by the ruling party’s 45% over 6 million do not have fingerprints on file and candidate would you accept the another 6 million were doublons (double registrations) results ? (% No) or minors. A further one million voter cards have not been accounted for, raising the possibility that millions February 2017 August 2017 November 2017 of votes could be compromised on election day. February 2018 July 2018
8 DRC Public Opinion Poll - Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority
This skepticism is also expressed towards the courts that would adjudicate electoral disputes. Sixty-three percent of those polled said they do not trust them. The recent appointment of three new judges to replace departures from the nine-member constitutional court––which will judge electoral disputes related to the presidential and national legislative elections–– has probably contributed to this. Two of these three judges are known to be close to President Kabila, while those who left the court had often expressed their reservations or had abstained from decisions that could benefit the president. Still, this skepticism of the judiciary is not new: in 2016, a BERCI/CRG poll found that 63 percent did not trust courts.
The members of the Security Council and 15% “ In case of electoral dispute, do the African Union Peace and Security Council you trust the courts to 63% adjudicate the disputes fairly? expressed concern at the continued deterioration 20% of the security and humanitarian situation in the 9% Democratic Republic of the Congo. While taking It would be fine to use the voting machine to respect the 66% electoral calendar note of key milestones in the electoral process 25% being reached, they expressed concern about re- It would it be better to delay 9% maining challenges to foster greater confidence the presidential and legislative in the process. elections and reform the 48% electoral process to improve its 43% credibilty than to press forward Joint Communiqué Issued by Members of United Nations Security Council, African Union Peace and Security Council, SC/13430, United Nations, July 19th, 2018 The law for Parliamentary seats 10% distribution should be revised 37% Given this situation, there seemed to be diverging to reflect corrections to the opinions on whether it would be better to wait and electoral law 53% reform the electoral process or to press forward. When asked whether presidential and legislative elections The voting register should be 12% revised to eliminate identified should be delayed because the process is not free or 36% transparent, 43 percent agreed while 48 percent said irregularities, such as people without finger prints 52% no. Even when asked whether the voting register should be revised to eliminate voters without fingerprints, or the law on the distribution of seats should be Are you favorable or not to a 13% political transition without changed to reflect changes to the voting register, Kabila, as demanded by the 18% only around 52 percent agreed. This either reflects Opposition? 69% impatience to get elections done with or cynicism that reforms would most likely have little impact. Do Not Know/No answer No/Not favorable Yes/Favorable
9 DRC Public Opinion Poll - Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority
General Political Opinion
In general, public opinion has not shifted much regarding the government perception. Most people have a bad opinion of President Kabila––74 percent, slightly down from the 80 percent in February 2018––and 80 percent disapprove of Prime Minister Bruno Tshibala's government, 10 percent more than in February 2018. When asked about their own personal future and that of the country over the next five years, 67 percent of respondents felt “very or rather optimistic”, compared with 82 percent in February, a 15 points drop. Similarly, optimism regarding the country’s future dropped 11 points to 53 percent feeling very/rather optimistic since the February poll.
Personal Safety
The majority of respondents (52 percent) do not think that their degree of personal safety or that of their property has changed over the last two years, while for 34 percent of them it has deteriorated. Nonetheless, a breakdown by provinces shows variation. Although the Kamina Nsapu uprising is no longer “ The significant numbers of deaths during headline news in national or international media, 72 percent of protests over the last two years, combined with the respondents from the former Kasai Occidental think their security situation has not changed since in the past two years. the fragmentation of the opposition, seem to have Likewise, 69 percent respondents from the former province deterred significant further action by the opposi- of Equateur, as well as 65 percent of Nord Kivu feel the same tion on this front. way. However, for 72 percent of Kinshasa’s respondents, and 71 percent in Maniema, the situation has worsened compared to two years ago. Conflict Trends (N°61), ACLED, September, 2017
Popular Mobilization Still, 58 percent of respondents approve of the CLC’s ultimatum of resuming their public demonstration if Kabila does not Popular mobilization has been an important factor in the explicitly states that he will not run in the upcoming presidential electoral process. In January 2015, protests in Kinshasa forced election. Large majorities also had a positive opinion of the the government to abandon a proposal to conduct a census various organizations spearheading the demonstrations and a before elections could be held, which could have delayed poor opinion of security forces: elections by years. Mobilization led by the Comité laic de coordination (CLC), (Lay Coordinating Committee), a Catholic ■■ CLC (77 percent); organization, in early 2018 then led to increased pressure by ■■ LUCHA (68 percent); regional governments and donors on Kabila. Indeed, street ■■ Filimbi (67 percent); protests will probably be a critical factor in determining ■■ National Police (30 percent); the upcoming elections.When asked whether they would ■■ Congolese Army, FARDC (26 percent); participate in a demonstration if elections are delayed ■■ Presidential Guards (18 percent); or rigged, half of the respondents (50 percent) said yes, a ■■ National Intelligence Agency, ANR (18 percent). significant increase from 36 percent in mid-2016.
10 DRC Public Opinion Poll - Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority
? WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT YOUR PERSONAL SAFETY, DO YOU THINK THAT YOU ARE BETTER OFF TODAY THAN TWO YEARS AGO? ?
Kasai Kasai Province Bandundu Bas-Congo Equateur Katanga Kinshasa Maniema Nord Kivu Sud Kivu Occidental oriental Orientale Better than two years ago 7% 9% 12% 5% 5% 5% 18% 5% 19% 26% Worse than two years ago 45% 27% 22% 7% 42% 48% 72% 71% 29% 19% 15% Same as before 45% 59% 69% 72% 42% 44% 22% 11% 65% 60% 59%
FIGURE 1 | NUMBER OF CONFLICT EVENTS AND REPORTED FATALITIES BY EVENT TYPE AND LOCATION (JANUARY 2016 – AUGUST 2017)
SOURCE: CONFLICT TRENDS (NO. 61) - REAL-TIME ANALYSIS OF AFRICAN POLITICAL VIOLENCE, SEPTEMBER 2017, ARMED CONFLICT LOCATION AND EVENT DATA (ACLED) PROJECT
11 DRC Public Opinion Poll - Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority
DO YOU HAVE A GOOD OPINION, BAD OPINION, OR NO OPINION ? AT ALL OF PRESIDENT JOSEPH KABILA?1
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jul. Oct. Nov. Jan. April Feb. Jul. Oct. Oct. April June Sept. Sept. Jan. Mar. Feb. May Feb. Aug, Feb. July 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2003* 2003** 2007* 2009 2010 2011 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016* 2017* 2017 2018 2018
Good 83% 58% 80% 72% 70% 52% 75% 83% 64% 60% 67% 36% 47% 35% 46% 43% 39% 24% 26% 19% 21% opinion Bad opinion 17% 23% 20% 15% 15% 23% 11% 8% 23% 35% 33% 48% 48% 64% 54% 57% 50% 72% 74% 80% 74% No opinion 0% 19% 0% 14% 15% 24% 14% 9% 3% 5% 0% 17% 5% 1% 0% 0% 11% 5% 0% 1% 5% at all
1. (*) Nationwide Surveys; (**) Surveys conducted in the capital cities of the eleven provinces, all the other polls were conducted in Kinshasa. In May 2016 the question was addressed the following way : Soutenez-vous fortement, moyennement, ou pas du tout, la manière dont le Président Kabila gère son travail en tant que Président de la République? – “Fortemement” and “moyennement” are considered "good opinion" and "pas du tout""is considered "bad opinion". 12 DRC Public Opinion Poll - Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority
The Presidential Race
Questions about the presidential and Moise Katumbi is currently leading legislative races were open-ended: If in three provinces: Katanga with elections were held next Sunday, for 58 percent (down by 8 points), ? whom would you vote? Respondents could then provide any name they Nord Kivu with 38 percent (down wanted, which resulted in a list of 43 by 1 point), and Maniema with 24 IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD NEXT SUNDAY, politician’s names for the presidential percent (replacing Matata who FOR WHOM WOULD YOU VOTE ? race and 163 parties/political alliances’ had been leading with 36 percent). names for the legislatives races. Meanwhile, Felix Tshisekedi has This obviously does not replicate the improved his score by 33 points situation faced by voters in the actual 19% 24% election, where they have to pick from in the former Kasai Occidental, Moise 24% KATUMBI 26% a much shorter list after several months and by 9 points in former Kasai 38% of campaigns, but gives a good idea of Oriental, while Joseph Kabila 19% popular sentiment six months before Félix 13% jumped by 16 points in the former 19% elections. Our data only allowed us to Province Orientale. The former TSHISEKEDI 10% break down the results by the former 5% Prime Minister Matata Ponyo is 17% 11 provinces, instead of the current 26. 10% no longer the leading contender in Jean-Pierre 1% Bemba 3% Maniema, his province of origin. 5% The competition for the He has been replaced by Moise 14% 17% presidential race has changed Katumbi and Vital Kamerhe, who Other less 24% than 1% 27% significantly in the four months share the lead in that province 18% since the last BERCI/CRG poll. with 24 percent each. 9% 9% Then, as in every other poll Vital 7% KAMERHE 8% since mid-2016, Moise Katumbi Taken together all of the 5% had a significant lead over Felix presidential candidates from the 9% Tshisekedi, within an extremely current ruling coalition would get Joseph 6% KABILA 3% the votes of around 15 percent of 5% fragmented field. Katumbi’s 10% popularity has dropped since then, those polled. If Adolphe Muzito–– 5% whose Parti lumumbiste unifié 8% and Bemba's return is shaping Adolph 7% (PALU) is popular in the provinces MUZITU 4% up to become a major factor in 4% of Kwilu, Kwango and Kinshasa–– the elections. If elections were 5% held now, our polling suggests throws his weight behind the ruling 4% Nobody/ 4% coalition’s candidate, that could 14% that three opposition candidates Do not Know 13% add another 4 percent to his or would be locked in a statistical tie: 1% Tshisekedi, Bemba, and Katumbi her vote. This throws the question 3% MATATA 5% of whether the opposition can PONYO 1% would all have between 17-19 1% percent of the vote. Provincial agree on a joint candidate into 1% analysis indicates that Bemba’s sharp relief. A narrow majority of Aubin 3% MINAKU 5% respondents (53 percent) thought 1% score is highest in the former 1% Equateur province. He is also the the opposition should just field 1% one candidate, although opinion 3% leading contender in the former Cardinal 1% was divided on who that should 1% Bas-Congo province with 34 MONSENGWO 0,30% percent of the hypothetical votes, be: 28 percent were in favor of Katumbi, 26 percent were for although there are a high number July 2018 February 2018 of undecided voters there (41 Tshisekedi, and 20 percent for November 2017 August 2017 percent). Bemba. February 2017
13 DRC Public Opinion Poll - Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority
FIGURE 2 | PREFERRED CANDIDATE AND POLITICAL PARTY HYPOTHETICAL VOTES IN THE 11 PROVINCES (%)2
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC SUDAN
CAMEROON
PPRD (21) PROVINCE MLC (59)) ORIENTALE 37 62 E UATEUR UGANDA Kisangani
Mbanda a 38 NORD CONGO GABON KIVU
UNC(31)Goma
RWANDA UNCBu avu (30)- UDPS (70) 22 Kindu SUD Bandundu KASAI PPRD (30) BURUNDI KIVU UDPS (13%) BANDUNDU ORIENTAL UNC (25) 22** KINSHASA PALU (32) MANIEMA 20 UDPS (58) KASAI 24 BAS-CONGO 32* OCCIDENTAL Matadi AADI (14) TANZANIA Kananga 61 Mbu i-Mayi 62
UDPS (22) K A T A N G A
57
Lubumbashi ANGOLA
ZAMBIA 0 400 m
2. (*) In the Bas-Congo province 41% of the respondents , and (**) 33% in the province of Sud-Kivu are still undecided.
14 DRC Public Opinion Poll - Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority
FIGURE 3 | DISTRIBUTION OF POTENTIEL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES VOTES IN THE 11 PROVINCES (%)
Martin FAYULU 50% 50%
Freddy MATUNGULU 96% 4%
Olive LEMBE 14% 86%
MATATA MPONYO 3% 19% 31% 47%
Aubin MINAKU 67% 26% 4% 4%
Vital KAMERHE 4% 3% 14% 5% 8% 3% 7% 18% 22% 16%
Moise KATUMBI 9% 7% 8% 31% 6% 3% 16% 14% 4%
JP BEMBA 20% 8% 49% 3% 5% 5% 4%
Joseph KABILA 6% 8% 5% 6% 4% 3% 5% 48% 15%
Felix TSHISEKEDI 8% 4% 26% 37% 10% 7% 4% 2%
Adolphe MUZITU 88% 3% 3% 1%
Freddy Adolphe Felix Joseph Moise Vital Aubin MATATA Martin JP BEMBA Olive LEMBE MATUNGUL MUZITU TSHISEKEDI KABILA KATUMBI KAMERHE MINAKU MPONYO FAYULU U Bandundu 88% 8% 6% 20% 9% 4% 67% 96% Bas-Congo 4% 8% 1% Equateur 3% 2% 8% 49% 7% 3% Kasaï Occidental 26% 1% 2% 14% 26% Kasaï Oriental 37% 5% 3% 8% 5% Katanga 1% 10% 6% 2% 31% 8% 4% 3% Kinshasa 3% 7% 4% 5% 6% 3% 4% 19% 14% 4% 50% Maniema 2% 0% 3% 1% 3% 7% 31% 50% Nord Kivu 2% 4% 5% 5% 16% 18% 47% Province Orientale 1% 2% 48% 4% 14% 22% 86% Sud Kivu 15% 4% 16%
15 DRC Public Opinion Poll - Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority
FIGURE 4 | DISTRIBUTION OF LEAD POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES HYPOTHETICAL VOTES BY 26 PROVINCES (MAP)
24% 30% 38% 43% 50% 52% 66% 36%
32% 50% 65% 52% 31% 64%
20% 46% 60% 83% 96% 22%
52% 59% 22%
16 DRC Public Opinion Poll - Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority
The Legislative Race
Legislative elections are an even more unpredictable affair, as the new electoral law passed in January 2018 requires parties to get one percent of all legislative ? votes nationally in order to win seats in parliament. This threshold would have disqualified most of the IF THE LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS WERE parties currently in the National assembly, reducing HELD NEXT SUNDAY, WHICH POLITICAL their number from 98 to 21. In addition, a nationwide PARTY WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? poll cannot replicate the race for seats within the 181 different constituencies across the country, and the 34% question about the legislative election was an open- 33% ended one: If elections were held this Sunday, which Other less than 3% 36% political party would you vote for? Respondents could 42% then provide any party or alliance's name they wanted, 30% which resulted in the names of 163 parties or political 20% alliances for the legislative race. Only 13 out 163 parties 17% UDPS/TSHISEKEDI cited (out of 599 officially registered parties) reached 23% 21% the 1% threshold in the national poll. The MLC saw 29% the greatest uptick with 5 points since February 2018: 17% 13% Political parties reaching the 1% threshold limit MLC 10% 9% 1. UDPS/ Felix Tshisekedi (20%) Opposition 12% 2. MLC/ Jean-Pierre Bemba (17%) Opposition 3. PPRD/ Emmanuel Ramazani (11%) Majority 11% 13% 4. UNC/Vital Kamerhe (9%) Opposition PPRD 5. PALU /Antoine Gizenga (6%) Majority 13% 8% 6. ARC/ Olivier Kamitatu Etsu (3%) Opposition 12% 7. UNDADEF /Christian Mwando (3%) Opposition 8. UNAFEC/Kyungu wa Kumwanza (3%) Opposition 9% 9. ATD/Alphonse Benza Kongawi (1,4%) ????????? 10% UNC 10. AFDC / Tshisumpa Tshakatumba (1,2%) Majority 8% 11. Envol/ Delly Sessanga (1,1%) Opposition 9% 12. AADI/ Davin Luyeye Makokoto (1,1%) Opposition 6% 13. AAC/ Christelle Mputu Baata (1,1%) ????????? 6% Total (78%) Above 1% PALU 9% Sub- total 1 (57%) Opposition 7% Sub-total 2 (21%) Majority et al 6% Total other parties (22%) Less than 1% 7%
3% Altogether, opposition parties–– although what that ARC/ KAMITATU 5% label means in the current volatile political context is not 3% clear––would garner around 58 percent of the legislative 5% vote, while the current ruling coalition would get around 4% 22 percent. BERCI/CRG could not ascertain the affiliation July 2018 February 2018 November 2017 of numerous parties, most of which would be unlikely to August 2017 February 2017 cross the one percent threshold.
17 DRC Public Opinion Poll - Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority
FIGURE 5 | LEAD PARTIES HYPOTHETICAL VOTES IN THE 26 PROVINCES
UNC
UNAFEC
UNADEF
UDPS/TSHIS
PPRD
PALU
MLC
ENVOL
ARC/KAMI
ARC/KAMI ENVOL MLC PALU PPRD UDPS/TSHIS UNADEF UNAFEC UNC Bas Uele 12% 19% 5% 12% 5% Equateur 64% 3% 30% 3% Haut Katanga 3% 3% 11% 14% 8% 8% 11% Haut Lomami 2% 2% 40% 22% 22% 2% Haut Uele 3% 3% 45% 7% 10% 10% Ituri 4% 23% 4% 19% Kasai 6% 18% 6% 13% Kasaï Central 4% 6% 90% Kasaï Oriental 7% 6% 78% 1% 5% Kinshasa 3% 12% 2% 9% 13% 0% 1% 3% Kongo Central 2% 7% 5% Kwango 7% 7% 13% 17% 3% 7% Kwilu 10% 20% 40% 10% 4% 1% 4% Lomami 10% 1% 65% 5% 3% 9% Lualaba 12% 35% 42% 8% Maindombe 64% 36% Maniema 14% 10% 4% 13% 3% 7% 25% Mongala 19% 6% 6% 6% Nord Kivu 2% 2% 15% 2% 19% 17% 2% 4% 31% Nord Ubangi 50% 19% Sankuru 20% 60% 10% Sud Kivu 4% 30% 4% 30% Sud Ubangi 4% 65% Tanganika 6% 9% 11% 6% 6% 14% Tshopo 1% 23% 3% 52% 4% 14% Tshuapa 88% 13%
18 DRC Public Opinion Poll - Elections 2018: The Not-So-Silent Majority
Foreign Involvement
Regional Influence ? In the past two years, countries in region have placed varying degrees of pressure on Kabila to abide by the 2016 New DO YOU THINK THAT THE FOLLOWING COUNTRIES PLAY Year’s Eve Agreement, to step down, and to hold elections. A POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE ROLE IN CONGO ? More recently, members of the Security Council and the (% POSITIVE/RATHER POSITIVE) African Union Peace and Security Council reiterated in their July 19th Joint Communiqué “that effective, swift and sincere implementation of the December Agreement, including the Agreement's confidence-building measures, as well as respect for fundamental rights and the electoral timeline, are essential Ouganda 13% 18% 19% for a peaceful and credible electoral process, a democratic Inde 40% 36% 23% transition of power, and the peace and stability of the Rwanda 10% 18% 27% Democratic Republic of the Congo”. However, to many around Kabila, regional pressure seems hypocritical, as most Central Chine 54% 43% 31% African countries have successfully managed to change or Corée du Sud 25% 25% 32% interpret their constitution to stay in power. Our poll indicates Japon 45% 65% 37% that only 3 percent of respondents think that the Congo destiny is determined by “neighboring or regional countries,” Russie 35% 49% 40% 31 percent by the international community, and 41 percent by Congo-Brazza 29% 43% 49%
Congolese themselves (the same percentages as in February). Afrique du Sud 48% 60% 60% Angola, which has played the lead role in pressuring Kabila, has doubled its favorability among Congolese since mid-2018 and Royaume Uni 46% 73% 74% is seen now as favorable by Congolese as France or the United France 58% 66% 76%
Kingdom. The most popular foreign countries are the United Angola 39% 74% 78% States (82 percent), followed by Belgium (80 percent), and the Belgique least popular is no longer Rwanda but Uganda instead with 55% 82% 80% 19 percent. Etats Unis 61% 77% 82% Union Africaine 51% 65% DO YOU THINK THAT CONGO'S DESTINY IS ? SADC 44% 66% DETERMINED BY ....? Coopération belge 81% 71%
FMI 86% 74% July 2018 Februray 2018 Banque Mondiale 86% 75%
Union Européenne 82% 78%
MONUSCO 77% 79%
CPI 66%
3% DFID 65% 41% 46% 31% 31% 8% 21% 13% 4% 2% Mi-2016 February 2018 July 2018 Congolese International Regional God Others/Do not Themselves Community Countries Know
19 he Art of the Possible MONUSCO s NewB Mand Eate R C I
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