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SPACE SECURITY INDEX 2015 www.spacesecurityindex.org 12th Edition Featuring a global assessment of space security by Theresa Hitchens SPACE SECURITY INDEX 2015 WWW.SPACESECURITYINDEX.ORG iii Library and Archives Canada Cataloguing in Publications Data Space Security Index 2015 ISBN: 978-1-927802-11-3 FOR PDF version use this © 2015 SPACESECURITYINDEX.ORG ISBN: 978-1-927802-11-3 Edited by Anna Jaikaran Design and layout by Creative Services, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada Cover image: From the International Space Station, Expedition 42 Flight Engineer Terry W. Virts took this photograph of the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. Gulf Coast at sunset and posted it to social media on Dec. 14, 2014. Credit: NASA/Terry Virts Printed in Canada Printer: Pandora Print Shop, Kitchener, Ontario First published October 2015 Please direct enquiries to: Project Ploughshares 140 Westmount Road North Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G6 Canada Telephone: 519-888-6541 Fax: 519-888-0018 Email: [email protected] Governance Group Peter Hays Eisenhower Center for Space and Defense Studies Ram Jakhu Institute of Air and Space Law, McGill University Paul Meyer The Simons Foundation Cesar Jaramillo Project Ploughshares Isabelle Sourbès-Verger Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique Project Manager Anna Jaikaran Project Ploughshares Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE PAGE 1 Acronyms and Abbreviations PAGE 5 Introduction PAGE 9 Acknowledgements PAGE 10 Executive Summary PAGE 23 Theme 1: Condition and knowledge of the space environment: This theme examines the security and sustainability of the space environment, with an emphasis on space debris; the allocation of scarce space resources; the potential threats posed by near-Earth objects and space weather; and the ability to detect, track, identify, and catalog objects in outer space. Indicator 1.1: Orbital debris Indicator 1.2: Radio frequency (RF) spectrum and orbital positions Indicator 1.3: Natural hazards originating from space Indicator 1.4: Space Situational Awareness PAGE 46 Theme 2: Access to and use of space by various actors: This theme examines the way in which space activity is conducted by a range of actors—governmental and nongovernmental—from the civil, commercial, and military sectors. Indicator 2.1: Space-based global utilities Indicator 2.2: Priorities and funding levels in civil space programs Indicator 2.3: International cooperation in space activities Indicator 2.4: Growth in commercial space industry Indicator 2.5: Public-private collaboration on space activities Indicator 2.6: Space-based military systems PAGE 88 Theme 3: Security of space systems: This theme examines the research, development, testing, and deployment of capabilities that could be used to interfere with space systems and to protect them from potential negation efforts. Indicator 3.1: Vulnerability of satellite communications, broadcast links, and ground stations Indicator 3.2: Capacity to rebuild space systems and integrate smaller satellites into space operations Indicator 3.3: Earth-based capabilities to attack satellites Indicator 3.4: Space-based negation-enabling capabilities Space Security Index 2015 PAGE 101 Theme 4: Outer space governance: This theme examines national and international laws and regulations relevant to space security, in addition to the multilateral processes and institutions under which space security discussions take place. Indicator 4.1: National space policies Indicator 4.2: Multilateral forums for space governance Indicator 4.3: Other initiatives PAGE 113 Global Assessment: Space security: One step forward, two steps back? Theresa Hitchens PAGE 124 Annex 1: Space Security Working Group meeting PAGE 126 Annex 2: Types of Earth orbits PAGE 127 Annex 3: Reentries in 2014 PAGE 130 Annex 4: Spacecraft launched in 2014 PAGE 136 Annex 5: Draft International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities (2014) PAGE 146 Annex 6: Draft Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space and of the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects (2014) PAGE 150 Endnotes Acronyms and Abbreviations AACE Advanced Composition Explorer ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ADR Active Debris Removal AEHF Advanced Extremely High Frequency system (U.S.) AIS Automatic Identification System ALASA Airborne Launch Assist Space Access (U.S.) ALTB Airborne Laser Test Bed ANGELS Automated Navigation and Guidance Experiment for Local Space (U.S.) APRSAF Asia Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum APSCO Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ARM Asteroid Redirect Mission (U.S.) ASAT Anti-Satellite Weapon ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASI Agenzia Spaziale Italiana BGAN Broadband Global Area Networks BTRC Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission CALT China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology CASBAA Cable and Satellite Broadcasting Association of Asia CATS Cloud-Aerosol Transport System CCDev Commercial Crew Development (U.S.) CD Conference on Disarmament CERT Computer Emergency Response Team CISSM Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland CME Coronal Mass Ejection CNES Centre national d’études spatiales (France) CNSA China National Space Administration COPUOS Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UN) COSPAR Committee on Space Research COTS Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (U.S.) CSA Canadian Space Agency CSpO Combined Space Operations CSSS Canadian Space Surveillance System DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (U.S.) DLR German Aerospace Center DMSP Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (U.S.) DoD Department of Defense (U.S.) DSCOVR Deep Space Climate Observatory (U.S.) EELV Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (U.S.) EKV Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle ELINT Electronic Intelligence EMERCOM Agency for Support and Coordination of Russian Participation in International Humanitarian Operations EMI Electromagnetic Interference EMP Electromagnetic Pulse (or HEMP for High Altitude EMP) 1 Space Security Index 2015 EO Earth Observation ESA European Space Agency EUMETSAT European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites EUTELSAT IGO European Telecommunications Satellite Organization Intergovernmental Organization FAA Federal Aviation Administration (U.S.) FALCON Force Application and Launch from the Continental U.S. FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency (U.S.) FMCT Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty GAO Government Accountability Office (U.S.) GEO Geostationary Earth Orbit GEOSS Global Earth Observation System of Systems GGE Group of Governmental Experts GLONASS Global Navigation Satellite System (Russia) GMD Ground-based Midcourse Defense GMES Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (Europe) GNSS Global Navigation Satellite System GPS Global Positioning System (U.S.) GSLV Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle GSSAP Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program (U.S.) HAND High Altitude Nuclear Detonation HELLADS High Energy Liquid Laser Area Defense System HEO Highly Elliptical Orbit IADC Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee IAWN International Asteroid Warning Network ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile ICG International Committee on GNSS (UN) ICoC International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities ICTSW Inter-programme Coordination Team on Space Weather IGS International GNSS Service IRNSS Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System ISON International Scientific Optical Network ISR Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance ISRO Indian Space Research Organisation ISS International Space Station ITAR International Traffic in Arms Regulations (U.S.) ITU International Telecommunication Union JAXA Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency JSpOC Joint Space Operations Center (U.S.) KARI Korea Aerospace Research Institute LEO Low Earth Orbit MDA Missile Defense Agency (U.S.) MEO Medium Earth Orbit MEOSAR MEO Search and Rescue 2 Acronyms and Abbreviations MEV Mission Extension Vehicle MIRACL Mid-Infrared Advanced Chemical Laser (U.S.) MiTEx Micro-satellite Technology Experiment (U.S.) MOM Mars Orbiter Mission (India) MPC Minor Planet Center NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration (U.S.) NDAA National Defense Authorization Act (U.S.) NEA Near-Earth Asteroid NEO Near-Earth Object NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (U.S.) NPO Science and Production Association (Russia) NRO National Reconnaissance Office (U.S.) OCO Orbiting Carbon Observatory OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OPALS Optical Payload for Lasercomm Science ORS Operationally Responsive Space (U.S.) OST Outer Space Treaty OTV Orbital Test Vehicle (U.S.) PAROS Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space PASS Preparation for the Establishment of a European SST Service Provision Function PHA Potentially Hazardous Asteroid PNT Position, Navigation, and Timing PPWT Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space, and of the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects QZSS Quazi-Zenith Satellite System (Japan) RBN-DBDS Beidou Radio Beacon-Differential Beidou Navigation Satellite System (China) RF Radio Frequency RFI Radio Frequency Interference Roscosmos Russian Federal Space Agency RPO Rendezvous and Proximity Operations RRM Robotic Refueling Mission (U.S.) RSO Resident Space Object SAR Search-and-Rescue SATCOM Satellite Communications SBIRS Space-based Infrared System SDCM System of Differential Correction and Monitoring SDA Space Data Association SDG Sustainable Development Goal
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