Defending Earth: the Threat from Asteroid and Comet Impact

Defending Earth: The Threat from Asteroid and Comet Impact

Version A | 05 September 2009

Mr. A.C. Charania President, Commercial Division | SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | [email protected] | 1+770.379.8006

Acknowledgments: Multiple slides from Dr. Clark Chapman, Southwest Research Institute Boulder, Colorado, USA, URL: www.boulder.swri.edu/~cchapman

2009 Jupiter Impact Event: 19 July 2009 (1 km Sized Object)

95 Light Years Away (Star HD 172555): Moon-Sized Object Impacts Mercury-Sized Object at 10 km/s (5.8+/-0.6 AU Orbit)

− Comet - A relatively small, at times active, object whose ices can vaporize in sunlight forming an atmosphere (coma) of dust and gas and, sometimes, a tail of dust and/or gas

− Meteoroid - A small particle from a comet or asteroid orbiting the Sun

− Meteor - The light phenomena which results when a meteoroid enters the Earth's atmosphere and vaporizes; a shooting star

− Meteorite -A meteoroid that survives its passage through the Earth's atmosphere and lands upon the Earth's surface

− NEO - Near Earth Object (within 0.3 AU)

− PHOs - Potentially Hazardous Objects (within 0.025 AU)

COMMON DEFINITIONS

8 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero − NEOs have affected our environment and will continue to do so − Early sources of water, organic molecules on Earth − Bombardment “blizzard”: the Late Heavy Bombardment, ~3.9 Ga, which frustrated the origin of life − External cause for “punctuated equilibrium” evolution, mass extinctions, rise of new species − Rare, modern threat to humanity − Future source of raw materials, spacefaring tourist destinations

Julian Baum Don Dixon Chesley Bonestell

Sources: - "How Dangerous are Near-Earth Asteroids?," Clark R. Chapman, Southwest Research Institute Boulder, Colorado, USA, 2007 Space Weather Workshop Reception, After-Dinner Talk, UCAR Center Green Campus, Bldg. 1, 25 April 2007.

THE IMPACT OF NEOS ON EXISTENCE

9 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero Comets: − Represent remnants from outer solar system formation process − Dust and gas are lost with each solar passage; evolve into fragile structures that can disintegrate or collide with the sun or planets − May have delivered water and organics to early Earth − Near-Earth comets: 100 times less frequent than near-Earth asteroids but comets may dominate large end of NEO population Asteroids: − Represent remnants from inner solar system formation process − May have contributed water and organics to early Earth − Extremely diverse population (differing strengths, minerals & metals) − Some near-Earth asteroids are more accessible than the moon and could be mined for minerals and metals. − Represent remnants from inner solar system formation process − May have contributed water and organics to early Earth − Extremely diverse population (differing strengths, minerals & metals) − Some near-Earth asteroids are more accessible than the moon and could be mined for minerals and metals.

COMETS AND ASTEROIDS

10 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero Comets (weak and very black icy dust balls) − Weak collection of talcum-powder sized silicate dust − About 30% ices (mostly water) just below surface dust − Fairly recent resurfacing and few impact craters − Resurfacing could be due to dusty vaporization jets − Some evidence that comet Tempel 1 does not have a uniform composition (i.e., more CO2in south) Asteroids − Run the gamut from wimpy ex-comet fluff balls to slabs of iron − Most are shattered fragments of larger asteroids − Rubble rock piles (like Itokawa) − Shattered (but coherent) rock (like Eros) − Solid rock − Solid slabs of iron (like Meteor crater object)

DIVERSE STRUCTURE

NEAR EARTH OBJECT (NEO) EXAMPLES

Global Shape of Itokawa: Sea Otter in Space?

13 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero − NEAR − Launch (February 17, 1996), Asteroid Mathilde Flyby (June 27, 1997), Asteroid Eros Initial Flyby (December 23, 1998), Asteroid Eros Rendezvous (February 14, 2000) − The NEAR mission flew within 1200 km of asteroid Mathilde and spent nearly one year in orbit about asteroid Eros in 2001-2001.

− DEEP SPACE 1 − Launch (October 25, 1998), Asteroid 9969 Braille Flyby (July 28, 1999), Comet Borrelly Flyby (September 22, 2001) − The primary Deep Space 1 mission objectives are test space technologies. The spacecraft flew within 2000 km of Comet Borrelly on September 22, 2001.

− STARDUST − Launch (February 6, 1999), Comet Wild-2 Flyby (January 2, 2004), Earth Sample Return (January 15, 2006) − The STARDUST spacecraft will image the nucleus of Comet Wild-2, collect dust from both the comet's coma and from interplanetary space and bring these dust samples back to Earth for study.

− MUSES-C/HAYABUSA − Launch (December 2002), Asteroid 25143 Itokawa Rendezvous (September 2005), Earth Sample Return (2010) − A cooperative mission between Japan and the U.S., the MUSES-C spacecraft will rendezvous with a near-Earth asteroid and return asteroid surface samples to Earth for analysis.

− ROSETTA − Launch (March 2, 2004), Comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko Rendezvous (May 2014) − After three Earth gravity assists and a Mars gravity assit, the Rosetta spacecraft will rendezvous with, land upon, the surface of a comet in an effort to study its composition and structure.

− DEEP IMPACT − Launch (December 30, 2004), Comet Tempel 1 Impact/Flyby (July 4, 2005) − Deep Impact mission will impact the surface of comet Tempel 1 thus creating a fresh crater larger than the size of football field and deeper than a seven-story building. The spacecraft will study the crater formation process and examine the subsurface structure of one of the solar system's most primitive objects, a remnant from the outer solar system formation process.

− DAWN − Launch (May 2006), Asteroid Vesta Rendezvous (July 2010), Asteroid Ceres Rendezvous (August 2014) − The Dawn mission will orbit two asteroids on a single voyage. Ceres and Vesta evolved under radically different circumstances in different parts of the solar system more than 4.6 billion years ago. By observing both protoplanets with the same set of instruments, Dawn will provide new insight into the formation and evolution of our solar system.

Sample of Recent Comet And Asteroid Missions

1990 1999 2009 September

Source: http://www.arm.ac.uk/neos/

EVOLVING NEAR EARTH OBJECT MAPS OF THE INNER SOLAR SYSTEM

The image below is an up to date map showing the local space around the Earth in pseudo 3D. All the objects currently within 0.3 AU (45 Million kilometres) of the Earth are shown with the Earth at the centre. To represent the 3D nature of the positions every asteroid marked has its position projected onto the plane of the ecliptic (essentially the plane which the Earth's orbit lies in). So the asteroid sits at the top (or bottom) of the 'flagpole' and the base of the pole shows where they would appear to be on the larger map of near Earth objects. In addition, the motion over the next 24 hours is represented by lines at the top of the poles. The Viewpoint is about 35 degrees away from the vertical and the scale is about 10 times more detailed than in the complete map of asteroids. The asteroids are colour coded such that all yellow objects have perihelia inside the Earth's orbit while all the green objects have perihelion distances outside the Earth's orbit. Everything which appears on this map can be considered to be an Earth approaching asteroid. The red oval surrounding the earth represents 3.84 million kilometres (projected onto the plane). This is a distance equal to 10 Lunar distances. Any object currently inside this distance will be highlighted in red. Source: http://szyzyg.arm.ac.uk/~spm/local_map.html RELATIVE POSITIONS OF ASTEROIDS NEAR EARTH

NUMBER OF NEAR-EARTH ASTEROIDS (NEAS)

NUMBER OF NEAR-EARTH ASTEROIDS (NEAS) DISCOVERED

H Diam. (km) Known Now SG1 (goal) SG2 (goal) No. % of Tot. No. % of Tot. No. % of Tot.

17.75 1.0 234 59 280 83 333 98 22.02 0.14 162 3.5 450 9 4000 83 24.26 0.05 147 0.09 1200 0.6 80000 40 25.36 0.03 85 0.01 640 0.08 2 M 20 27.75 0.01 17 1e(-6) 200 1e(-5) 400000 2 29.26 0.005 6 3e(-8) 30 3e(-7) 200000 0.2

− The discovery rate for 10 m NEAs may go up 2000 times! − By the end of SG2, we will know nearly half of Tunguska-class NEAs. − Result for meteoroids research: a quarter-million known objects 5 m in size − Then will be tracking 2 million 30 m objects; any threatening one will demand attention, even if impact damage might be minimal.

NUMBERS OF SMALL NEOS KNOWN AND TO BE DISCOVERED

20 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero Tunguska (30 June 1908) ~40 meter stony asteroid exploded 9 km above Earth’s surface in Siberia, blast heard from 500 miles away ~3-5 Mton explosion, 100s times the Hiroshima A-bomb

Blast site 13 miles away 40 miles away Relative to a City

Chicxulub-Yucatan Peninsula (65 million years ago) 10 km asteroid struck the Yucatan Peninsula, left a 180 km crater

T-minus 10 min T-minus 2 sec T-plus 1 min T-plus 1 month T-plus 1000 years

PAST IMPACTS ON THE EARTH

21 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero − Asteroid 2008 TC3: first asteroid ever discovered and predicted to strike Earth − October 7, 2008: Meteoroid 4 meters in diameter entered Earth's atmosphere on, at 02:46 UTC (5:46 a.m. local time), first observed ~20 hours prior to impact − Exploded an estimated 37 kilometers (23 mi) above the Nubian Desert in Sudan − December 2008: 8.7 pounds (3.9 kg) of meteorites in 280 fragments TC3 asteroid moving (W. Boschin, TNG) TC3 atmospheric train (M. Mahir) Almahata Sitta fragment on ground in Sudan (P. Jenniskens)

2008 TC3 = Almahata Sitta

Leonid meteor shower Tunguska: 1908 K-T event: 65 Myr ago [Dust] [Building] [15 km] [Seconds] [Millennium] [100 Myr]

Source: John Pike

MORTALITY FROM TWENTIETH CENTURY CATASTROPHES

24 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero Cause of Death Chance (1 in …) Motor vehicle accident 90 Suicide 120 Homicide 185 Falls 250 Meteorite punctured Terrorism (Middle East) 1,000 roof in Canon City, CO Fire or smoke 1,100 Electrocution 5,000 Drowning 9,000 Flood 27,000 1990 Airplane crash 30,000 Lightning strike 43,000 Meteor Crater Asteroid impact (global) 75,000 2007 Terrorism (non Mid-East) 80,000 Insect bite or sting 100,000 Natural tsunami 100,000 Earthquake 130,000 Asteroid impact (regional) 1,600,000 Food poisoning (botulism) 3,000,000 Chicxulub Asteroid impact (local) 5,700,000 Shark attack 8,000,000

Sources: - “ The Hazard of Asteroids and Comets Impacting the Earth,” Public lecture, CosmoCaixa, Barcelona, Spain, 12 June 2007. http://www.boulder.swri.edu/clark/barspc07.ppt - "How Dangerous are Near-Earth Asteroids?," Clark R. Chapman, Southwest Research Institute Boulder, Colorado, USA, 2007 Space Weather Workshop Reception, After-Dinner Talk, UCAR Center Green Campus, Bldg. 1, 25 April 2007. Global catastrophe RISK PROFILES

DISASTER WARNING SCALES

Events Meriting Careful Monitoring

Events Meriting Concern

Threatening Events

Certain Collisions

27 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero Impact Est. Palermo Palermo Torino Year Potential Prob. Vinfinity H Diam. Scale Scale Scale Designation Range Impacts (cum.) (km/s) (mag) (km) (cum.) (max.) (max.)

101955 2169-2199 8 7.1e-04 6.36 20.7 0.560 -1.12 -1.52 n/a 1999 RQ36

2007 VK184 2048-2057 4 3.4e-04 15.63 22.0 0.130 -1.82 -1.83 1

153814 2133-2133 1 1.1e-05 10.12 18.2 0.780 -2.13 -2.13 n/a 2001 WN5

99942 Apophis 2036-2069 3 2.3e-05 5.87 19.7 0.270 -2.41 -2.42 0 (2004 MN4)

1994 WR12 2054-2106 121 9.1e-05 9.84 22.4 0.110 -2.99 -3.92 0

1979 XB 2056-2086 2 3.0e-07 24.59 18.5 0.687 -3.05 -3.09 0

Sources: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/index.html

CURRENT TOP 6 ITEMS IN NEO RISK TABLE

28 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero − Hyped or unreliable media news stories. Officials irritated but must do nothing. − Annual  more often? − Impact predictions for future decades requiring analysis, but leading to no action. − 20%/decade  several per year. − Short-term impact warning for ~15 m NEA. Immediate evacuation would be prudent. − 7%/decade  15%/decade. − Prediction of an impact during next 50 years eventually requiring launching of a transponder mission (for NEAs > 100 m). − 1% chance  15% chance. − Short-term impact warning for >40 m NEA. Immediate evacuation required (by ships or from ground-zero). − 0.3%/decade  1%/decade. − Detection of NEA >100 m that would ultimately impact during next 50 years if deflection isn’t attempted or successful. − 0.01%  0.2%. − Detection of civilization-threatening NEO that will strike in next 50 years. − 0.001%  0.0003% chance.

RELATIVE FREQUENCY OF NEO EVENT-TYPES AND REQUIRED ACTIONS

DEALING WITH THE THREAT

31 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero For a brief period (Dec. 23-27, 2004) Apophis indicated a substantial probability for a 2029 impact -Impact Probability as high as 2.7% on Dec. 27 (“Roulette odds”) -Unprecedented Torino Scale = 4, Palermo Scale = +1 -2029 impact possibility eliminated on Dec. 27 when Spacewatch precovery data from March 2004 -Jan. 2005 Arecibo astrometry refined 2029 encounter distance -Current 2029 estimate for miss distance is approx. 5.98 ±0.25 R (3-sigma)

⊕

IN 2004: DETECTION OF ASTEROID APOPHIS

32 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) 4500 km “position” window Earth Impact Risk Summary Torino Scale (maximum) 1 at 5.89 ± 0.35 Earth radii distance Palermo Scale (maximum) -2.42 Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.41 On Friday 13 April 2029 Impact Probability (cumulative) 2.3e-05 Number of Potential Impacts 3

Location Probability

Vinfinity 5.87 km/s H 19.7 Diameter 0.270 km Mass 2.7e+10 kg Energy 5.1e+02 MT

All above are mean values weighted by impact probability, analysis based on radar delay, Doppler, and optical observations Source: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html, (03 June 2008) Discovered at Kitt Peak by Tucker, Tholen & Bernardi on June 19, 2004 Estimated diameter 270±60 m (pv = 0.33, Cellino et al. 2007) Source: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news149.html

A DATE WITH THE PLANET EARTH IN THE 2029: ASTEROID APOPHIS

33 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero There is a 600 m long “keyhole” somewhere in the current 4500 km position ellipse. If Apophis goes through this region of space during its close approach in 2029, in 2036 it will hit the Earth.

Note: not to scale

Sources: "How Dangerous are Near-Earth Asteroids?," Clark R. Chapman, Southwest Research Institute Boulder, Colorado, USA, 2007 Space Weather Workshop Reception, After-Dinner Talk, UCAR Center Green Campus, Bldg. 1, 25 April 2007. CURRENT AND MISSION OUTPUT ERROR ELLIPSE FOR APOPHIS

RECONNAISSANCE

37 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero The SpaceWorks Engineering / SpaceDev team thanks The Planetary Society (its directors and its members and specifically Dr. Louis D. Friedman and Mr. Bruce Betts) for the opportunity to present the Foresight design and increase public awareness of the potential planetary threat from Near Earth Objects (NEOs) through the Apophis Mission Design Competition (Foresight: 1st place overall). Special thanks are extended to Mr. Dan Gerachi for his leading financial support for this endeavor.

THE PLANETARY SOCIETY’S APOPHIS MISSION DESIGN COMPETITION

38 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero - Foresight spacecraft is a small satellite mission design to orbit Near Earth Object (NEO) Apophis - Primary mission: reduce future orbital uncertainty of Apophis - Over a span of 300 days reduces the ±3σ error ellipse of Apophis' trajectory ("keyhole" or b- place encounter) in 2029 to 6.0 kilometers by 2017 (from 4500 km today) - Purpose-designed to meet minimum requirements of The Planetary Society’s 2007 Apophis Mission Design Competition (1st place overall international winner) - Characteristics - Small orbiter spacecraft with minimal instruments and complexity - Foresight’s Encounter Spacecraft (ES): 220 kg (wet mass), ~85 cm cube (stowed) - Total launch mass with Propulsive Transfer Vehicle (PTV): 1,608 kg (wet mass with payload) - Lean, low risk small satellite approach to design and manufacture - Foresight uses heritage components, instruments, and flight proven technologies - Proven mission approach with heritage from NEAR (Eros) and Hayabusa (Itokawa) missions - Low cost launch vehicle (Minotaur IV baseline, other options available) - Total life-cycle cost estimated to be under $131M USD (including launch) - Flexible - Multiple launch windows between 2012 and 2014 (extended mission option)

OVERVIEW: FORESIGHT MISSION

FORESIGHT SPACECRAFT CONFIGURATION

549 cm

462 cm

309 cm

205 cm

Foresight Encounter Spacecraft and PTV in Minotaur IV Payload Fairing

Foresight Encounter Spacecraft and PTV

FORESIGHT SPACECRAFT DIMENSIONS AND LAUNCH VEHICLE PACKAGING

-7.49000 Location Probability-1

-7.49500 -2 -7.50000

-7.50500 -3

-7.51000 -4 +/- 3σ = 6 km -7.51500

-7.52000

ζ-axisζ-axis Position Position(Earth(Earth radii) radii) -5 ζ-axis Position (Earth radii)(Earth ζ-axisPosition -7.52500

-7.53000 -6

-7.53500 -7 -7.54000 -1.50500 -1.50000 -1.49500 -1.49000 -1.48500 ξ-axis Position (Earth radii) -8 ξ-axis Position (Earth radii)

Initial and Final Position Error in 2029 after 300 Days of Tracking (B-Plane Error Ellipse Comparison) (Assuming no Additional Earth Observations after 2012)

FORESIGHT MISSION: EFFECT ON OVERALL ERROR ELLIPSE

FORESIGHT ANIMATION

48 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero − Mitigation means: “lessening unfavorable consequences” (in engineering, economics, environmental impacts, medical field, and – especially – in emergency management) − In Planetary Defense, “mitigation” has been distorted to mean only “deflection” − NASA 2007 report notes broad meaning of “mitigation” but explicitly restricts meaning to “deflection” (not even “fragmentation”) − US Congress has ordered NASA to evaluate NEOs “in order to provide warning and mitigation” for the potential NEO hazard. − Any sensible mitigation plan must include all plausible emergency management methods, including warning and evacuation.

“MITIGATION”: WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

49 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero Evacuation Deflection Why it is Important… Why it is Important… • By far the most likely case we will • Only responsible way to prevent face global or regional-scale disaster Attributes… Attributes… • Inexpensive and familiar: apply • Deflection implementation is much usual “all hazards” emergency less likely than the need to evacuate. procedures • Advance decisions must be made when need to deflect is still not • Requires rapid, reliable known. communications between astronomers and officials, and • Expensive! Especially if need familiarity with the issues by uncertain. emergency managers.

WHAT IS THE PRIMARY MITIGATION APPROACH: EVACUATION OR DEFLECTION?

Solar/Laser Ablation

INTERESTING MITIGATION OPTIONS

EXPLOSIVE Nuclear Explosives - Standoff Standoff nuclear explosion / vaporization Nuclear Explosives - Surface Surface nuclear explosion Nuclear Explosives – Subsurface Subsurface nuclear explosion Magnetic Flux Compression EMP generates mag force

HIGH THRUST Chemical Propulsion Attach chemical rocket SpaceTug (VASIMR) Nuclear powered electric propulsion (VASMIR)

SIMPLE IMPACTOR Kinetic Impactor (without Explosive) Impact with spacecraft Kinetic Impactor (with Explosive) Impact with spacecraft and on-board explosive NEO-to-NEO Collision Collide with another NEO

LOW THRUST Gravity Tractor Deflect with spacecraft's gravity NEO Painting Paint to increase Yarkovsky effect NEONet Momentum net Mass Driver Ejects materials from the surface Laser Ablation Deflect with Earth/space-based laser Solar Sail Reflect solar photons Solar Mirror / Concentrator Reflects and concentrate sunlight to deflect Space Pebbles Metallic swarm kinetic impact NEPTug (Ion or Hall) Nuclear powered electric propulsion (Ion or Hall) SAMPLE MITIGATION OPTIONS

Modular asteroid deflection mission ejector node

- NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (NIAC) Phase I Study (November 2003 – April 2004)

- Original Concept Features - Coring drill and ejecta conveyor - Deployable Mass Driver and strongback (approximately 10 m tall) - Small space-based nuclear reactor for efficient power (<45 kWe) - Self-anchoring landing legs - In-space Delta-V of 5.6 km/s in separate in-space stage (assumes pre-deploy in L4/L5, Delta IV-H launcher) - Ejecta velocities ~180 m/s, mass ~2 kg/shot, rate ~1 shot/minute, surface action time ~60 days

Reference: Charania, A., Graham, M., Olds, J. R., "Rapid and Scalable Architecture Design for Planetary Defense," AIAA-2004-1453, 1st Planetary Defense Conference: Protecting Earth from Asteroids, Orange County, California, February 24-27, 2004 [Available at www.sei.aero].

MADMEN OVERVIEW

57 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero Self- Assembling Ejecta bucket Mass and ore Ejection Tube Mining processing system with Radiators coring drill Nuclear tube reactor power Attitude and attachments system with high power landing capacitors propulsion Note: Landing legs, mass ejection tube, and radiators collapse for launch vehicle packaging system

MADMEN CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS

A Flexible Path of Human and Robotic Exploration: • Crewed exploration missions to many places in the inner solar system • Orbit planets with deep gravity wells, but do not land on the surface • Rendezvous with small planetary bodies such as NEOs and Mars moon Phobos • Tele-robotically explore and sample planetary surfaces Value of flexible destinations: • Scientific knowledge and science operations support • Demonstrate capability of exploring in free space under conditions that we will meet on the way to Mars

NEOs Sun - Earth L2 Moon L2 L4 L1 Mars

L5 Earth Phobos L 3 & Deimos Sun - Earth L1 Venus

DESTINATION DESCRIPTION: FLEXIBLE PATH

62 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero The Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee Inner Solar System Flexible Path is a sequence of missions with Limited Inner >365 day duration increasing capability into the inner solar system Solar System Mars ~200 day duration Phob Sun-Earth os Vicinity NEO Near Earth 30-90 day duration NEO s Mar s 21+ day duration Sun – Earth L sFly Earth’s 2 by Minimum Lagran L Capability ge 2 Points 7-14 day duration Sun – Earth L1 Lun L1 ar Flyb y

Zero boil off & Refueling

FLEXIBLE PATH REPRESENTATIVE ARCHITECTURE

63 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero The Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee Humans in Humans in First Human Human to Cislunar Interplanetary Humans to Lunar Mars Vicinity Space Space NEOs Return

7 10 21 32 90 190 440 Days Days Days Days Days Days Days 1st Habitat Flight

Unpiloted Earth Sun Sun NEO Site Site Site Site Site Lunar Lunar Moon Earth Earth (2007 1 2 3 4 5 Mars Test Flyby L1 L2 L1 UN12) Flyby

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Near Earth Sun Earth Lunar Lunar Sortie Lunar Extended Vicinity Surface Flights Duration Test Location A Flights

Lander with Habitat Precursor Extended Robotic Landers / Presence Rovers FLEXIBLE PATH OFF RAMP POTENTIAL TIMELINE

64 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero The Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee Shuttle Retirement Commercial Crew ISS Retirement Orion / SD LV IC L Mission NEO mission 3/2011 6/2016 1/2020 6/2022 12/2023 1/2027

20,000

18,000

16,000

14,000 Commercial Crew Technology Development 12,000 Other Non-Cx elements In Space Fueling 10,000 $ in M $ in 8,000 STS Other Cx elements Ground Ops Beyond LEO Capability 6,000 ISS GFE/COTS Lander 4,000

2,000 Ares I Sidemount Orion 0 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 Simulation Results (65% Likelihood) Date: Orion / Shuttle-Derived (cargo) Jun 2022 Budget Assumptions Date: L Mission Dec 2023 Shuttle Extension to 2011 Date: NEO mission Jan 2027 ISS Retirement in 2020 Date: Mars Flyby Jan 2029 Extra Soyuz flights for crew to ISS Date: HLR Jan 2030 Technology Development Program Cost RY$B: FY10 thru 2020 $ 123 Cost RY$B: FY10 thru 2030 $ 266 COST FOR FLEXIBLE PATH – SHUTTLE-DERIVED – LESS CONSTRAINED

66 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero −Asteroids, comets, and the planetary moons have been advocated as potential destinations for human exploration − From the science to be obtained on these bodies to the incredible resources available there, there are many motivations for such exploration − Sustainable human exploration of the solar system will rely on use of indigenous resources −Long duration bases will have to be self-reliant − Bodies such as asteroids provide the avenue for that self-sufficiency − Asteroids, comets, and small moons may be easier objectives in terms of orbital energy and trip times than planetary surfaces − In addition, these bodies have resources that would be useful to humans (in-space and on earth), ranging from water ice to platinum

HUMAN EXPLORATION: THE SEARCH FOR BASES

70 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero Business Address: SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) 1200 Ashwood Parkway, Suite 506, Atlanta, GA 30338 U.S.A. Phone: 1+770.379.8000 | Fax: 1+770.379.8001 | www.sei.aero | [email protected]

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