THE HARD RAIN: IMPACTS, EVENTS AND CANADIAN SECURITY Major J. Schamehorn JCSP 36 DL PCEMI 36 AD Master of Defence Studies Maîtrise en études de la défense Disclaimer Avertissement Opinions expressed remain those of the author and do Les opinons exprimées n’engagent que leurs auteurs et not represent Department of National Defence or ne reflètent aucunement des politiques du Ministère de Canadian Forces policy. This paper may not be used la Défense nationale ou des Forces canadiennes. Ce without written permission. papier ne peut être reproduit sans autorisation écrite. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the © Sa Majesté la Reine du Chef du Canada, représentée par le Minister of National Defence, 2014, 2015. ministre de la Défense nationale, 2014, 2015. CANADIAN FORCES COLLEGE – COLLÈGE DES FORCES CANADIENNES JCSP 36 DL – PCEMI 36 AD MASTER OF DEFENCE STUDIES – MAÎTRISE EN ÉTUDES DE LA DÉFENSE THE HARD RAIN: IMPACTS, EVENTS AND CANADIAN SECURITY By Major J. Schamehorn 23 August 2014 “This paper was written by a student “La présente étude a été rédigée par attending the Canadian Forces College un stagiaire du Collège des Forces in fulfilment of one of the requirements canadiennes pour satisfaire à l'une des of the Course of Studies. The paper is a exigences du cours. L'étude est un scholastic document, and thus contains document qui se rapporte au cours et facts and opinions, which the author contient donc des faits et des opinions alone considered appropriate and que seul l'auteur considère appropriés correct for the subject. It does not et convenables au sujet. Elle ne reflète necessarily reflect the policy or the pas nécessairement la politique ou opinion of any agency, including the l'opinion d'un organisme quelconque, y Government of Canada and the compris le gouvernement du Canada et Canadian Department of National le ministère de la Défense nationale du Defence. This paper may not be Canada. Il est défendu de diffuser, de released, quoted or copied, except with citer ou de reproduire cette étude sans the express permission of the Canadian la permission expresse du ministère de Department of National Defence.” la Défense nationale.” Word Count: 17 756 Compte de mots : 17 756 "i List of Figures iv List of Tables v Abstract vi Chapter 1 The Sky Really is Falling 1 Introduction 1 Goals of this research. 6 Thesis Statement 7 Summary 7 Chapter 2 The Threat: A Rain of Metal, Stone and Ice 8 Introduction 8 A Brief Nomenclature 10 Metal and Stone: The Asteroids. 12 Ice of all sorts: Comets and Cometary Debris 16 Galactic Debris: Gravel on the Galactic Road 17 Historical Impact Data 17 Impact Assessment 18 Time & Space Issues 24 Impact Risk Quantification Systems 27 The Torino Impact Hazard Scale 28 The Palermo Technical Hazard Impact Scale 31 Summary 32 Chapter 3 Defining the Target 34 Introduction 34 Historic Precedence 34 "ii Canada as an Entity. 35 Canada within a Global Context 38 Summary 39 Chapter 4 International NEO Policy and Initiatives 40 Introduction 40 The United Nations and NEOs 41 International Agencies / Non-Governmental Organizations 46 International Astronomical Union (IAU) & The Spaceguard Foundation 47 Association of Space Explorers 48 B612 Foundation 50 American NEO Initiatives and Responsible Agencies 52 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 53 Europe and Other Notable National Initiatives 59 Summary 61 Chapter 5 Canadian NEO Policy and Initiatives 64 Launching & Securing the Next Generation 67 National Security and Emergency Policy 69 Canadian Space Domain Awareness and NEO Early Warning 70 Communicating Warning and Coordinating response 74 Summary 75 Chapter 6 Summary and Recommendations 77 Summary of Findings 77 Recommendations 79 Conclusion 81 "iii Bibliography 83 "iv ! LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 - Meteor over Chelyabinsk, Russia Figure 1.2 - Orbital Diagram - Asteroid 2012 DA14 from 15 February 2013. Figure 1.3 - Near Earth Asteroid Census Status Figure 2.1 - Description of Satellite Orbits Figure 2.2 - Minor planetary object belts and debris locations in Solar System Figure 2.3 - Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) Orbits and Classification Criteria Figure 2.4 - Fatality Probability Comparison Figure 2.5 - Tunguska area of effect comparison. Figure 2.6 - Scale comparison Asteroid 99942 Apophis Figure 3.1 -Historic Impact Event distribution in Canada Figure 3.2 - Canadian Population distribution Figure 4.1 - United Nations NEO Protocol - Groups, Functions and Lines of Communications Figure 4.2 - International Scientific Optical Network (ISON) Figure 4.3 -Sentinel Space Based NEO telescope - Heritage Figure 4.4 - American Space Surveillance Network (SSN) Figure 4.5 - Satellite Debris Distribution in De-orbitting Scenario. Figure 4.6 - European Space Agency’s Tenerife 1 metre Telescope Figure 5.1 - Near Earth Orbit Surveillance Satellite (NEOSSat) Figure 5.2 - NEOSSat Observation Zone ! "v ! LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 - Near Earth Asteroids - Detected, by Size Category Table 2.2 - NEO impact fatility Risk & Probability Comparison Table 2.3 - Fatality Rates versus Impact Energy and Torino Scale Correlation Table 2.4 - Impact Frequency Size of Impactor versus Time Table 2.5 - Torino Impact Hazard Scale Table 4.1 - NASA NEO Detection Totals by Observer 1995 - 2013 ! "vi ! ABSTRACT This paper argues that there is an extant risk to Canada from impact events, that is to say meteors and debris from space, causing fatalities, destroying infrastructure and / or adversely affecting the environment within Canadian sovereign territory. It illustrates recent UN and International protocols in addressing the impact threat and highlights the absence of plans to address this issue in Canadian public security, emergency management, defence or scientific agencies. The paper posits it is possible to provide a holistic approach to the impact threat within the principles of Canada’s Space Policy Framework and National Security Program integrating Canadian industry, academia, government and military with relatively little effort. The research goes on to define extant measures being take to address impact events globally and to propose how Canada could act in concert with its NORAD and USSTRATCOM, United Nations NEO initiatives such as the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) and bilateral CSA/NASA space missions like OSIRIS-Rex and throughout the growing space industry to address the risk from an impact event. Such activity would not only deal with a significantly under appreciated risk to national security, but with a view to stimulating Canadian space sector expansion in line with the Minister of Industry’s recently released Space Policy Framework and consistent with the National Security Program. ! "1 Figure 1.1: Meteor photographed over Chelyabinsk Russia 15 February 2013. This event released approximately 500 kilotons of explosive force and caused an estimated 1,200 injuries from debris caused by the sonic impact of the descent(Photo credit: Reuters News Agency).1 !CHAPTER 1 THE SKY REALLY IS FALLING “But bombs are unbelievable until they actually fall.” - Patrick White, Riders in the Chariot. “ “Now those skilled in war must know where and when a battle will be fought. They measure the roads and fix the date. They divide the army and march in separate columns. Those who are distant start first, those who are near by, later. Thus the meeting of troops from distances a thousand li takes place at the same time.” Tu Yu (732-812 CE) on Sun Tzu’s The Art of War !Introduction There are literally more than 10,000 objects in the space around Earth which could bring destruction upon us. Some could alter the course of our nations, others the course of all humanity. Though we have long watched objects fall from the sky, only twice in the whole of mankind’s recorded history have we identified, predicted and 1 Reuters News Agency, “Meteorite explodes over Russia, more than 1,000 injured “, 15 February 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/15/us-russia-meteorite-idUSBRE91E05Z20130215 "2 observed an impact event. In neither case did we have any more than 21 hours notice. In Chelyabinsk, Russia, on 15 February 2013 they had none. As Tu Yu points out, if we are to be successful in this most important of battles, our planning must be precise. Each and every day, this planet is struck by asteroids of varying size, anywhere between 20 to 300 tonnes of extraterrestrial material per day ranging from dust particles through to car sized masses of iron, stone and ice. Some research predicts a multi-kiloton impact (think Hiroshima, Japan 1945) annually, with a regionally destructive megaton impact event (think Tunguska, Siberia 1908) as frequently as once per century.2 Because of the severity of such an impact when it occurs, Canadians have less chance of being killed by a tornado, than of being killed in the course of a meteor impact. Anyone who has seen a meteor’s fiery descent through the sky, often at night and more dramatically in daylight, has witnessed the effect of Earth being struck by the material from space. Occasionally, such as recently occurred in the Russian city of Chelyabinsk, a meteor or “bolide” will make it all the way to the surface causing damage and injury.3 Very occasionally, on the time scales which challenge the human capacity to reasonably assess, these objects have reshaped continents, ended species and very possibly formed the moon orbiting above us. In 1980, Luis Alvarez proposed a theory in which the impact of an asteroid between 10 to 15 kilometres in length set in motion the 2SpaceRef.”Satellite Study Establishes Frequency of Megaton-Sized Asteroid Impacts.“ Last modified 20 November 2002, http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=9865 3 B612 Foundation. “FAQ on the Chelyabinsk Asteroid Impact” Last updated 18 February 2013. http://sentinelmission.org/news/faq-on-the-chelyabinsk-asteroid-impact/.