Reforming the US Military for a New Era

LOOK AHEAD SERIES

POLICY MEMO Reforming the US Military for a New Era

BY BRYAN CLARK, TIMOTHY A. WALTON, AND DAN PATT Hudson Institute Center for Defense Concepts and Technology November 2020

The Look Ahead Series is a collection of policy memos examining the challenges that political, military, and business leaders must contend with today to ensure a secure, free, and prosperous world tomorrow.

Table of Contents

Introduction ...... 2

Building a Force for Information and Decision Superiority ...... 2

Rationalizing the US Defense Posture ...... 3

Attracting the Best People ...... 4

Collaborating with Congress ...... 4

About the Authors ...... 6

Endnotes ...... 7

HUDSON INSTITUTE REFORMING THE US MILITARY FOR A NEW ERA 1 Introduction approach to defense. Some tenets of the 2018 National The United States will enter 2021 facing an array of security, Defense Strategy (NDS) remain sound, including its emphasis public health, and economic challenges that should shape the on using dynamic force postures and distributed operations next presidential administration’s defense strategy. Although the to deter aggression.4 Other elements—such as prioritizing COVID-19 pandemic is our most immediate concern, the United lethality or attrition above the force’s overall effectiveness and States also faces threats from the People’s Republic of China separating concept development from modernization—fail (PRC), where General Secretary Xi Jinping’s vision of national to exploit changes in the character of warfare and emerging rejuvenation seeks to restore his country’s primacy in world technologies. affairs. In the process, Xi would subordinate the United States, along with its friends and allies.1 The PRC will be empowered in The team that takes office in January should address the this effort by its strong post-pandemic economic position, which evolving strategic environment and the shortfalls of 2018’s could allow it to continue entangling partner nations in damaging defense strategy through three lines of effort: accelerating economic relationships while modernizing the People’s Liberation introduction of new force designs that better integrate Army to rival US and allied forces in relevant scenarios.2 decision-centric operational concepts with new technologies; implementing new priorities in force employment; and However, the administration that takes office in January may managing personnel in ways that attract and retain people have difficulty finding money to address the pandemic’s with needed skills who can enable faster introduction of new continued economic impact and the challenges posed by capabilities. the PRC. US public debt is at more than 135 percent of gross domestic product, the US government has incurred Building a Force for Information record-breaking federal deficits, and interest on the debt risks and Decision Superiority crowding out future discretionary spending on everything from The new operational concepts that US military services are infrastructure to military hardware.3 pursuing, from Joint All-Domain Operations to Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations, rely on distribution, complexity, The next national security strategy will need to chart a course and actions in multiple domains to gain an advantage over toward improved US and allied security within the government’s opponents.5 Although effective fires and defense are essential resource constraints. An essential element of future US strategy to these approaches, all fundamentally depend on gaining should be catalyzing the efforts of manufacturers, universities, an information and decision-making edge to succeed. Given laboratories, and suppliers in the National Security Innovation Base resource constraints and the US position as a status quo power, (NSIB). This community underpins American economic strength, the US military will need to adopt operational strategies and supports the US military, and generates new technologies and concepts designed to deter adversaries by creating uncertainty concepts like those that enabled US predominance at the turn and imposing complexity, rather than attempting to win wars of of this century. An invigorated NSIB could help carry the United attrition along the borders of nuclear-armed great powers. States toward a successful whole-of-society competition against the PRC without breaking the federal budget. The current force designs of the Department of Defense (DoD) are ill-suited for decision- and information-centric warfare. The The administration will need to complement its broader US military, predominantly composed of large, multimission governmental and commercial security initiatives with a new platforms and troop formations, needs to shift toward a larger

HUDSON INSTITUTE REFORMING THE US MILITARY FOR A NEW ERA 2 number of smaller and disaggregated units to become more eras; and protect US space infrastructure in an increasingly affordable, adaptable, and able to impose greater complexity contested environment. US cyber forces similarly must on the enemy. In part, the current force is the product of contend with challenging threats to both military and civilian congressional resistance to retiring legacy programs in favor networks, but DoD should exploit the opportunity that cyber of new ones. However, it is also a product of the Pentagon’s capabilities offer to affordably wage decision-centric operations sometimes unfocused and protracted research and at a pace and scale beyond the capacity of other forces. development efforts. Fortunately, emerging capabilities such as the sensors, countermeasures, networks, and autonomous Within these broad trends, DoD strategy and program systems needed for decision superiority can be ready to field decisions should be guided by four overarching factors. First, during the next five years, and a new administration should the force must be affordable to buy and own, so strategy, force prioritize investment in them. planning, and budgeting should work hand in hand. Second, the Pentagon should assess the force using less-exquisite The military services are moving toward better structures modeling tools but a wider range of scenarios that increase for decision-making advantage, but they should accelerate DoD’s emphasis on operations other than multi-phase major these efforts by more rapidly incorporating new technologies power war. These include intense, unexpected engagements like unmanned systems and autonomous decision-support like an opportunistic land grab, or protracted confrontations tools. The Navy should more quickly rebalance toward such as breaking a blockade. Third, to maximize the combat a larger number of smaller vessels to improve the fleet’s performance of the force, assessments should realistically flexibility and resilience.6 The Marine Corps is already evaluate needs for logistics; operational infrastructure; adopting a more distributed force that will operate from a sustainment; and command, control, and communications. diverse array of amphibious ships, retiring legacy armored And fourth, DoD should identify the munitions capacity needed units to fund new fires and electronic warfare systems.7 The for potential scenarios and assess the benefit of buying more Army’s modernization priorities are nearing fruition, but the weapons—even at the expense of ships, aircraft, or vehicles. service likely cannot afford all the resulting new kit; given growing access challenges, its top priorities should be fires, Rationalizing the US Defense Posture communications, and soldier performance.8 The new Air Force The 2018 defense strategy introduced dynamic force chief of staff argues the service must “accelerate change or employment, which seeks to “prioritize maintaining the lose,” and that it should retire some long-standing manned capacity and capabilities for major combat, while providing tactical and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance options for proactive and scalable employment of the Joint (ISR) aircraft to free up resources for new systems with greater Force.”10 Although the concept’s associated operating model reach, stealth, and interoperability.9 of contact, blunt, and surge layer forces could improve the US military’s adaptability and affordability, DoD continues The new Space Force and Space Development Agency, far to conduct regular rotational force deployments that do not from being lean startups, inherited a mature collection of create uncertainty for opponents or allow forces to prepare for organizations and equipment. As a result, similar to the other high-intensity combat. services, they will need to transition from expensive, monolithic legacy satellites to more distributed constellations; integrate One constraint on the US military’s ability to be more and manage a diverse set of capabilities from different dynamic is its posture in the Middle East, where its presence

HUDSON INSTITUTE REFORMING THE US MILITARY FOR A NEW ERA 3 increased in response to Iranian provocations and attacks, practice tactics and integrate new operators, is especially ripe and US operations in Syria persist on an indefinite timeline. for the benefits of computer-based simulation. Today, shortfalls New air defense artillery, maneuver, aviation, and naval in home station preparation often require units to undergo assets have been deployed to the region, robbing the Joint remedial training during pre-deployment certification events, Force’s capacity for deterring the PRC. Most egregiously, the slowing their progress and reducing their readiness. secretary of defense continues sending carrier strike groups to the Arabian Gulf, including through taxing “double-pump” Attracting the Best People deployments that sacrifice future readiness for a dubious Better training will be undermined if the US military cannot strategy today.11 attract and retain smart, creative, and capable personnel. Demographic trends suggest the population of qualified The force design changes described above would help enable recruits will shrink in the coming decades.12 And automation a more dynamic posture by giving combatant commanders and autonomous systems, rather than eliminating positions, additional options. For example, instead of tying up a carrier will shift personnel to more-sophisticated functions that group in the Arabian Gulf, Central Command could rely on emphasize technical, managerial, and analytic skills. To retain US and allied land-based aviation, combined with smaller the talent needed for increasingly interesting jobs, the military surface warships that are better suited for the environment. will need to reinvigorate service schools and create training Smaller Army units are already deploying to Europe. However, paths that develop operators, technicians, and supervisors equipping battalion and company formations with compact over the course of their careers.13 The benefits in effectiveness unmanned vehicles, fires, sensors, and electronic warfare and readiness from improved training facilities, curricula, and systems, and granting them access to longer-range systems opportunities could be significant enough to warrant funding currently held at the brigade or division level, would give them by reducing the number of platforms or systems the combatant commanders more flexibility and allow distribution trainees would eventually operate. of troops over larger areas. While DoD pursues more robust training and professional More-selective force employment could also enhance training development, it should also explore ways to better control the and operational innovation. The Pentagon should embrace the growth in personnel costs. Cash and noncash compensation model of contact, blunt, and surge forces by using forward- rose significantly during the past two decades, crowding out based forces in the contact layer, where their familiarity with spending for improved training and readiness. DoD could the region and proximity to it would allow higher operational pursue a variety of changes to pay structures, retirement tempos. Instead of racing through series of certifications to benefits, and health care to slow the growth in personnel reach a minimal level of readiness, pre-deployment training costs, while still attracting and retaining a high-quality force for US-based units in the blunt layer should exploit their and caring for the nation’s disabled veterans.14 longer operational cycles to achieve warfighting mastery using extended exercises and experimentation. Collaborating with Congress Periods of record deficits have historically been followed by DoD should also exploit virtual and constructive training downturns in defense spending, and there is no indication capabilities as part of its efforts to affordably improve the incoming administration would follow a different path.15 innovation and proficiency. Home station training, where units DoD should therefore maximize the value of every dollar spent

HUDSON INSTITUTE REFORMING THE US MILITARY FOR A NEW ERA 4 on defense. Given the scale of its pressing challenges, the To promote collaboration, Pentagon leaders should be clear Pentagon will need to implement disruptive changes in the about DoD’s operational challenges with members and staffs way US forces fight and the equipment they use. Adopting and regularly brief them on the choices under consideration— dramatically different concepts and systems, however, will even before the president’s budget is submitted or a new depend on the confidence and buy-in of Congress. strategy finalized. At worst, this transparency can better prioritize defense spending in flat or declining budgets; at best, The recent report from congress’ Future of Defense Task Force it can motivate Congress to accelerate transition of the force highlights the substantial bipartisan agreement on changes and provide additional funds to shore up gaps. needed in US defense policy and programs, as well as a path to greater collaboration between military leaders and legislators.16 Throughout US history, a well-informed Congress led the In line with that report, DoD should take several steps, including: defense establishment forward through monumental pieces of accelerate its efforts to implement new operational concepts legislation, such as the Two-Ocean Navy and the Goldwater- through force design changes that require retiring legacy Nichols Acts. Now facing a combination of fiscal, health, and systems and adopting new capabilities; reform personnel security challenges, Congress and the Pentagon will need to policies established in law; and evolve the Pentagon’s resource work together to protect the interests of the United States and allocation process to focus on missions instead of platforms. its allies.

HUDSON INSTITUTE REFORMING THE US MILITARY FOR A NEW ERA 5 About the Authors

Bryan Clark games for the U.S. government and its allies on new Senior Fellow & Director, Center for Defense Concepts operational concepts and force planning. Previously, Mr. and Technology Walton was a principal of Alios Consulting Group and an Before joining Hudson Institute, Bryan Clark was a senior associate of Delex Consulting, Studies, and Analysis, both fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments defense and business strategy firms. During this period, he (CSBA) where he led studies for the DoD Office of Net led and supported studies for the U.S. Navy and Army that Assessment, Office of the Secretary of Defense, and Defense developed road maps for future technologies, analyzed Asia- Advanced Research Products Agency on new technologies Pacific security dynamics, and assessed U.S. and Chinese and the future of warfare. Prior to joining CSBA in 2013, Mr. concepts. He also facilitated strategic planning, capture Clark was special assistant to the Chief of Naval Operations shaping, and acquisition due diligence for commercial and and director of his Commander’s Action Group, where he led defense companies. development of Navy strategyand implemented new initiatives in electromagnetic spectrum operations, undersea warfare, expeditionary operations, and personnel and readiness Dan Patt management. Mr. Clark served in the Navy headquarters staff Adjunct Fellow, Center for Defense Concepts and from 2004 to 2011, leading studies in the Assessment Division Technology and participating in the 2006 and 2010 Quadrennial Defense Dan Patt focuses on the role of information and innovation Reviews. Prior to retiring from the Navy in 2008, Mr. Clark was in national security. Dr. Patt supports strategy at the artificial an enlisted and officer submariner, serving in afloat and ashore intelligence company STR and supports Thomas H. Lee submarine operational and training assignments Partners automation fund. Previously Dr. Patt co-founded and was CEO of Vecna Robotics, a commercial venture- including tours as chief engineer and operations officer at the backed warehouse robotics and workflow orchestration Navy’s nuclear power training unit. He received his M.S. in company. Dr. Patt also served as deputy director for the national security studies from the National War College and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) B.S. in chemistry and philosophy from the University of Idaho. Strategic Technology Office (STO), managing more than $400 million in annual technology investments in robust distributed systems architectures in a technology portfolio including battle Timothy A. Walton management, command and control; communications and Fellow, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology networking; intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance; Prior to joining Hudson, Timothy Walton was a research and electronic warfare. At DARPA he launched the Mosaic fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments Warfare initiative. Dr. Patt received his B.A., M.S., and Ph.D. in (CSBA) where he led and contributed to studies and war- aerospace engineering from the University of Michigan.

HUDSON INSTITUTE REFORMING THE US MILITARY FOR A NEW ERA 6 Endnotes

1 Hal Brands, “What Does China Really Want? To Dominate the 8 Mark H. Milley and Ryan D. McCarthy, “Modernization Priorities World,” Bloomberg, May 20, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/ for the United States Army,” US Army, October 3, 2017, https:// opinion/articles/2020-05-20/xi-jinping-makes-clear-that-china-s- admin.govexec.com/media/untitled.pdf. goal-is-to-dominate-the-world. 9 Charles Q. Brown, Accelerate Change or Lose, US Air Force, 2 Gerry Shih, “China Pulls Ahead among Major Economies in August 2020, https://www.af.mil/Portals/1/documents/csaf/ Pandemic Recovery,” Washington Post, October 19, 2020, CSAF_22/CSAF_22_Strategic_Approach_Accelerate_Change_ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-econ- or_Lose_31_Aug_2020.pdf. omy-recovery-covid/2020/10/19/d574d08c-1204-11eb-a258- 614acf2b906d_story.html. and David Ochmanek et al., U.S. 10 Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy. Military Capabilities and Forces for a Dangerous World: Rethinking the U.S. Approach to Force Planning (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 11 David B. Larter, “After a Grueling Deployment, the Carrier 2017), https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1782-1. Eisenhower Gets Set for a Dubious ‘Double Pump,’” Defense html. News, September 30, 2020, https://www.defensenews.com/ naval/2020/09/20/after-a-grueling-deployment-the-carrier-eisen- 3 “Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic hower-gets-set-for-a-dubious-double-pump/. Product,” Federal Reserve of St. Louis, September 30, 2020, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S. 12 Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip B. Levine, “Half a Million Fewer Children? The Coming COVID Baby Bust,” Brookings Institution, 4 Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United June 15, 2020, https://www.brookings.edu/research/half-a-mil- States of America: Sharpening the American Military’s Competi- lion-fewer-children-the-coming-covid-baby-bust/. tive Edge, US Department of Defense, 2018, https://dod.defense. gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strate- 13 John Paschkewitz and Dan Patt, “Can AI Make Your Job More gy-Summary.pdf. Interesting?,” Issues in Science and Technology, October 2020, https://issues.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/74-78-Paschke- 5 “Air Force Releases Joint All-Domain Operations Doctrine,” Air witz-Patt-Can-AI-Make-Your-Job-More-Interesting-Fall-2020-IS- Education and Training Command, June 9, 2020, https://www. SUES.pdf. aetc.af.mil/News/Article/2212411/air-force-releases-joint-all-domain-operations-doctrine/ and “Expeditionary Advanced Base 14 Carla Tighe Murray and Adebayo Adedeji, “Approaches Operations,” US Marine Corps Concepts and Programs, https:// to Changing Military Compensation,” Congressional Bud- www.candp.marines.mil/Concepts/Subordinate-Operating-Con- get Office, January 2020, https://www.cbo.gov/system/ cepts/Expeditionary-Advanced-Base-Operations/. files/2020-01/55648-CBO-military-compensation.pdf.

6 Bryan Clark, Timothy A. Walton, and Seth Cropsey, American Sea 15 Todd Harrison and Seamus P. Daniels, Analysis of the FY 2021 Power at a Crossroads: A Plan to Restore the US Navy’s Maritime Defense Budget, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Advantage, Hudson Institute, 2020, https://s3.amazonaws.com/ August 2020, 57–58, http://defense360.csis.org/wp-content/ media.hudson.org/Clark Cropsey Walton_American Sea Power at uploads/2020/08/Analysis-of-the-FY-2021-Defense-Budget.pdf. a Crossroads.pdf. 16 Seth Moulton and Jim Banks, Future of Defense Task Force: 7 Force Design 2030, Department of the Navy, US Marine Corps, Report 2020, House Armed Services Committee, Septem- March 2020, https://www.hqmc.marines.mil/Portals/142/ ber 23, 2020, https://armedservices.house.gov/_cache/ Docs/CMC38 Force Design 2030 Report Phase I and II.pd- files/2/6/26129500-d208-47ba-a9f7-25a8f82828b0/424E- f?ver=2020-03-26-121328-460. B2008281A3C79BA8C7EA71890AE9.future-of-defense-task- force-report.pdf.

HUDSON INSTITUTE REFORMING THE US MILITARY FOR A NEW ERA 7 About Hudson Institute

Hudson Institute is a research organization promoting American leadership and global engagement for a secure, free, and prosperous future.

Founded in 1961 by strategist Herman Kahn, Hudson Institute challenges conventional thinking and helps manage strategic transitions to the future through interdisciplinary studies in defense, international relations, economics, health care, technology, culture, and law.

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