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EXTRAORDINARY GROWTH Third-Party Logistics Market Results and Trends for 2019 Including Estimates for 190 Countries

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EXTRAORDINARY GROWTH Third-Party Logistics Market Results and Trends for 2019 Including Estimates for 190 Countries EXTRAORDINARY GROWTH Third-Party Logistics Market Results and Trends for 2019 Including Estimates for 190 Countries June 2019 Phone: +1-800-525-3915 Website: www.3PLogistics.com Email: [email protected] ABOUT ARMSTRONG & ASSOCIATES, INC. Armstrong & Associates, Inc. (A&A) was established in 1980 to meet the needs of a newly deregulated domestic transportation market. Since then, through its leading Third-Party Logistics (3PL) market research and history of helping companies outsource logistics functions, A&A has become an internationally recognized key resource for 3PL market information and consulting. A&A’s mission is to have leading proprietary supply chain knowledge and market research not available anywhere else. As proof of our continued work in supporting our mission, A&A’s 3PL market research is frequently cited in media articles, publications, and securities filings by publicly traded 3PLs. In addition, A&A’s email newsletter currently has over 62,000 subscribers globally. A&A’s market research complements its consulting activities by providing continually updated data for analysis. Based upon its unsurpassed knowledge of the 3PL market and the operations of leading 3PLs, A&A has provided strategic planning consulting services to over 30 3PLs, supported 20 closed investment transactions, and provided advice to numerous companies looking to benchmark existing 3PL operations or outsource logistics functions. All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopied, recorded or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, Armstrong & Associates, Inc. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that Armstrong & Associates delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such, Armstrong & Associates can accept no liability whatsoever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect. ©2019 Armstrong & Associates U.S. 3PL MARKET Inventory Builds to Beat Import Tariffs and a Strong Economy Drive Extraordinary Third-Party Logistics Market Growth 2018 will go down as an outstanding year for third-party logistics (3PL) in the U.S. The two main growth drivers were an extraordinary inventory build as shippers’ imported products to beat the implementation of Trump’s import tariffs and solid domestic economic expansion. Coupled with tight domestic carrier capacity driving up rates, increasing fuel surcharge revenue, and expanding e-commerce business, the 2018 3PL market realized extraordinary growth over 2017. Figure 1. U.S. 3PL Market 2000-2019E (US$ Billions) $240 $227.2 $220 $213.5 $200 $184.3 $180 $166.8 $161.2 $157.8 $160 $147.0 $142.0 $140 $135.5 $127.0 $127.5 $119.0 $120 $113.6 $104.2 $107.1 $100 $89.4 $80 $75.7 Gross Revenue/Turnover Gross $68.4 $64.2 $60 $56.8 $40 $20 $0 Year The U.S. 3PL market net revenues (gross revenues less purchased transportation) grew 12.1% to $86.4 billion and overall gross revenues increased 15.8%, bringing the total U.S. 3PL market to $213.5 billion in 2018. The last time the U.S. saw this level of 3PL gross revenue growth was in 2010 when the 3PL market bounced back 19% from its 16% decline in 2009 during the great recession. Domestic Transportation Management (DTM) The non-asset-based Domestic Transportation Management segment (DTM), which primarily consists of freight brokerage services and to a lesser extent managed transportation, and digital freight matching companies/digital freight brokers (DFMs), led all other 3PL segments with overall gross revenue increasing a whopping 20.7% to $86.5 billion. DTM providers’ top-line revenues benefited from heavy port to warehouse and warehouse to warehouse moves, the strong domestic economy, rising carrier rates, increased fuel surcharge revenue, and continued outsourcing amongst shippers. To find a better growth year, we have to go back to 2005 when the DTM segment had year-over-year growth of 21.2%. ©2019 Armstrong & Associates 3 U.S. 3PL MARKET Table 1. U.S. 3PL Market Growth by Segment Gross Revenue % Change 2018 Net Revenue 1995-2018 3PL Segment (Turnover) vs. 2017 Net (US$ Billions) CAGR (US$ Billions) Revenue DTM 86.5 13.4 23.2% 11.6% ITM 61.9 22.1 12.1% 11.3% DCC 18.4 17.8 15.8% 7.4% VAWD 43.3 33.1 6.3% 10.8% Total* 210.1 86.4 12.1% 10.1% *Total 2018 gross revenue (turnover) for the 3PL market in the U.S. is estimated at $213.5 billion. $3.4 billion is included for the contract logistics software segment. When trucking capacity gets tight, shippers often turn to DTM providers (DTMs) for help. 2017 was noted by a surge in carrier capacity demand later in the year which continued into 2018. Conditions were further exasperated by the regulatory ELD (electronic logging device) mandate for carriers which reduced total truckload capacity over 3%. 2019 has started off softer, but it seems like pricing levels are holding. Strong demand combined with sequential carrier rate increases allowed DTM 3PLs to plan capacity better than in 2017 positively impacting DTM’s net revenue growth. The average gross margin increased to 15.5% from 15.2% and net revenue increased a stellar 23.2% to $13.4 billion. The DTM segment is led by C.H. Robinson. Its North American Surface Transportation and Managed Services (C.H. Robinson’s TMC division) net revenues increased 16.9% from $1,599 million in 2017 to $1,869 million in 2018 and accounted for 13.9% of the total DTM segment net revenue. While it is still the segment leader, its market share as measured by net revenue dropped year-over-year and is significantly lower than its market share of over 20% ten years ago. C.H. Robinson is losing domestic market share to traditional competitors such as J.B. Hunt’s ICS division, Total Quality Logistics, and Echo Global Logistics, which posted 50.8%, 31.1%, and 24% net revenue increases respectively. Each also generate over $1 billion in gross revenue. On the DTM “watch list” is rapidly growing Austin, Texas-based Arrive Logistics and Nolan Transportation Group (NTG). Arrive had year-over-year net revenue growth of 140% to $48 million and 2018 gross revenue of $368 million pushing it over the $300 million purchased transportation hurdle; it now has the purchasing power of the largest shippers in the U.S. Its CEO Matt Pyatt and President Eric Dunigan both came from Command Transportation and founded Arrive in 2014 before Command’s $420 million sale to Echo Global Logistics in June 2015. NTG had year-over-year net revenue growth of 76.9% to $107 million and 2018 gross revenue of $811 million. Gryphon Investors bought a majority stake in NTG through its portfolio company Transportation Insight earlier this year. The DTM market is also seeing emerging competition from new digital freight brokers (DFBs) such as Uber Freight and Convoy which generated $300 and $359 million in gross revenue respectively and Transfix to a lesser extent with $80 million in gross revenue. Each is growing without the same profit requirements of traditional DTMs. While Transfix is generating a respectable 12% gross margin, ©2019 Armstrong & Associates 4 U.S. 3PL MARKET it is estimated that Convoy and Uber Freight are closer to 3%. What is truly impressive about these three digital freight brokers is that combined they have received significant funding; Uber Freight from its parent and Convoy with $265.5 million in outside investment and Transfix with over $78.5 million. These DFBs are being valued like software companies at 3 times or more of revenue, versus the traditional DTM valuation for mid-sized freight brokers of 10 times EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization). One thing digital freight brokers such as Uber Freight, Convoy, and Transfix have done, is place an emphasis on “digitalizing” DTM operations. While managed transportation has been fairly automated for years via transportation management systems (TMS), electronic data interchange, and other systems interfaces, most freight brokerage operations still have many manual carrier sales/procurement and back office processes. A plethora of technology solutions have come to market over the past three years to augment traditional TMS and automate freight brokerage operations. These tend to fall into four groups: ‐ Account Management Automation ‐ Capacity Intelligence and Load Execution ‐ Visibility and Exception Management ‐ Back Office Automation It is our opinion that many data entry and manual processes will be eliminated by artificial intelligence and machine learning, improved transportation network systems/application interfaces, and improved data mining and analysis. With so many innovative solutions available, the real question for DTM providers is “What is your digitalization strategy?” Dedicated Contract Carriage (DCC) Tightness in domestic motor carrier capacity drove solid growth within the more mature, asset-heavy Dedicated Contract Carriage (DCC) 3PL segment. As shippers struggled to find capacity in contract carrier and spot markets, some turned to DCC to lock in capacity. We estimate that dry van trailers are used for 70% of DCC truckloads, reefers 16%, flatbeds 6%, and tankers and others 8%. Three‐fourths of major DCC providers have dry vans and reefers. Half of major DCC providers have flatbeds. Customer trailers/containers are often used especially for retail operations like Walmart. Other types of equipment include bulk tankers, curtain sides, roller beds, end dumps, drop decks, and dry vans with lift gates.
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